Export Research Articles

Sustainable Connection Amid Renewable Energy, Non-Renewable Energy Usage, and Economic Growth in South Africa

Purpose This paper assesses the relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy sources and economic growth in South Africa. Methodology The study employs the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Wald-Granger Causality Approach, utilizing data spanning the period from 1990 to 2020. Findings The findings reveal an absence of bidirectional Granger causality among the variables. The VECM results further indicate that, in the short run, imports (IMP) and non-renewable energy (NREN) have a slightly more pronounced impact on GDP growth than exports (EXP) and renewable energy (REN). In the long run, both imports and non-renewable energy significantly influence GDP growth more than renewable energy and exports. Conclusion In essence, strategic policies in the energy sector are imperative for ensuring a positive impact of energy consumption on the economy. Given the critical role of the energy sector, the South African government must implement policies conducive to enhancing the overall performance of the economy.

The relevance of political stability and exports on Türkiye’s outward direct investment in the European Union: panel quantile regression approach

ABSTRACT This study examines the factors that affect Türkiye’s outward foreign direct investment (TODI) in European Union (EU) countries across quantiles using a panel quantile regression to understand the factors that affect TODI in EU countries with the most and least direct investment from Türkiye. We document that determinants of TODI in EU countries show significant discrepancies across quantiles. Mainly, we find that the relationship between the political stability (PS) level in EU countries and TODI is positive and also stable across quantiles. We also see a strong positive and monotonically declining relationship between Türkiye’s trade exports (EXP) and TODI. On the other hand, we do find that host country market size is negatively related to TODI with a declining slope across quantiles while labour resource endowments are positively related with a small variance across quantile. Overall, we provide policymakers with further information about the growing level of TODI in EU countries. Mainly, we recommend policy makers to make effective use of the relevant trade facilitation clauses in the EU customs union, expand the scale of Türkiye’s trade exports to EU countries, deepen political relations, and strengthen reciprocal political trust.

Long-term forecast of electrical energy consumption with considerations for solar and wind energy sources

The long-term goals achievement of sustainable development based on consumption of electrical energy is possible through the use of renewable energy sources. The objectives of this study include (a) long-term forecasting of Electrical Energy consumption (EEC) for sample countries with developed and developing economies, and (b) analyzing of different scenarios based on the use of solar and wind energy sources with 1%, 2% and 3% of the EEC. Artificial neural network (ANN) modeling with socio-economics data of the energy balance sheet last 30 years (1990–2019) as input data contain Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Population (POP), Import (IMP), Export (EXP), and EEC are used in order to forecast the EEC in the long-term (2020–2050). The United States and the OECD as developed economies and China, India, and Iran as developing economies are the countries under study. The structure of ANN is optimized for long-term EEC forecasting based on PSO and E-PSO algorithms. For both types of inputs and economies, the results demonstrate that E-PSO – ANN model can be used by SRE-3% scenario, which finally leads to a reduction of 55% and 54% in the EEC and amount of CO2 emissions in average according to the Paris Agreement (PA) goals, respectively.

Globalization and Economic Stability: An Insight from the Rocket and Feather Hypothesis in Pakistan

The purpose of this study was to analyze the irregular pattern of changing inflation as a result of the pass-through of the exchange rate and fluctuations in oil prices in the current globalization scenario. We used annual data sets for crude oil prices, real effective exchange rates, and inflation in Pakistan from 1972 to 2021 for the analysis. The control variables used in the current study were imports (IMP), gross domestic product per capita (GDP), exports (EXP), globalization (GLOB), and interest rates (CRATE). Our findings from a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) analysis showed that inflation had an asymmetric rocket and feather pattern regardless of how globalization was defined or measured. On the other hand, GDP, EXP, and GLOB negatively impacted inflation, and CRATE and IMP had positive effects on inflation. Our study suggested that alternative policies, such as fixing the exchange rate, might decrease uncertainty and stabilize the Pakistani economy in the future. Moreover, increasing the use of sustainable energy would reduce the dependence of the economy on oil prices, which would lower its impact on the economy.

Impact of Export, Import, and Population on Economic Growth in Malaysia

This study investigates the impact between export, import, and population on economic growth in Malaysia. This study examines the economic growth of Malaysia from 1960 to 2021 with a total of 62 observations. Exports (EX), imports (IM), and population (POP) are the independent variables used to determine economic growth. As the dependent variable, a proxy for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth represents economic growth. Using Eviews 12, descriptive, correlation, and multiple regression analyses were conducted on the data. The main finding indicates that population and imports positively affect Malaysia's economic growth. As a result, exports negatively impacted Malaysia's economic growth. This study is significant because it contributes new knowledge that population, not imports or exports, has had the most significant impact on Malaysia's economic growth over the past 62 years. This study recommends that future research investigate the population, policies and environmental factors that influence economic growth and expand the sample size.

Appraising the spillover effect of water use efficiency indicators in sub- Saharan Africa: A spatial econometric approach

The aim of this research is to examine the trend of water use efficiency (WUE) and the spillover effect of its determinants in 28 sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries over the period 2007 to 2018 using the directional distance function (DDF) and the spatial Durbin model. Results of the DDF revealed that the most efficient countries include Botswana, and Liberia whereas countries with poor performance include Niger and South Africa. Also, the average efficiency scores over the study period improved steadily from 0.582 in 2007 to 0.698 in 2018. The study showed that under economic distance weight in the spatial Durbin model, the values of the spatial lag coefficients of urbanisation (URB), export (EX), and education (EDU) depict positive and statistically significant effects on WUE, while industrial activities (IND), foreign direct investment (FDI), and government interference (COR) had an adverse influence on WUE in SSA. Results of the spatial decomposition effect of URB demonstrated a major impact on WUE in both the local and adjacent countries. However, a significant decline of WUE through the direct and indirect impacts of FDI, EX, and COR in the local and neighboring countries was recorded which indicate the presence of a negative spatial dependency on WUE in SSA. The outcome of this study implies that policymakers in SSA countries must strengthen sustainable water resources management decisions with neighbouring countries to achieve sustainable development goal 6 by 2030 and beyond.

Influencing factors of China’s direct investment in RCEP countries: evidence from panel quantile regression

ABSTRACT This article investigates the influencing factors of China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in RCEP countries across quantiles. We apply a panel quantile regression to seek the factors that influence China’s OFDI in RCEP countries with the most and least OFDI from China. Our findings are outlined as follows. First, influencing factors of China’s OFDI in RCEP countries have significant heterogeneity across quantiles. More specifically, China’s trade exports (EXP) to RCEP countries have the strongest positive impact on promoting China’s OFDI in RCEP countries, and the strongest positive impact of trade exports on China’s OFDI occurs in RCEP countries with less China’s OFDI. Second, The higher the level of political stability (HP) of RCEP countries with more China’s OFDI, the more China’s OFDI they attract, while in RCEP country with the least China’s OFDI and changes in political stability will not have a significant impact on China’s OFDI. Third, in RCEP countries with less China’s OFDI, a higher level of labour resource endowment (LAB) has a stronger effect on attracting China’s OFDI. Overall, our findings provide policymakers more targeted references for tapping the potential of China’s OFDI in RCEP countries.

External Sector Macroeconomic Indices and Real Economy of Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis (1981 – 2020)

In recent times, the external sector of Nigeria’s economy has been characterized by instability, while the performance of her Real Economic Growth (RGDP) has remained below average. This study, therefore, investigated the relationship between her (RGDP), and some external sector macroeconomic indices, namely: Foreign Exchange Rate (FXR), Total Export (EXP). Trade Openness (TOR), Total Import (IMP), External Debt (EXTD), External Debt Service Charges, (EXDINT) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDIR), CBN is the source of the study data, spanning for a period of 1981 to 2020. The study applied Co-integration technique, Error Correction Model (ECM) and Granger Causality tests for the econometric analysis. Evidence from empirical results confirmed that, in the long run, only FDIR contributed positively to (RGDP), while the rest, had significant adverse effect on RGDP. The Granger Causality test established that only FDIR had bilateral relationship with RGDP while RGDP preceded EXP, TOR and FXR, implying that RGDP determines those variables without a feedback. EXTD, EXDINT and IMP maintained independent causal relationship. The ECM coeficient (-1.14), is significant and correctly signed (negative). It measures the speed of the adjustment, at which equilibrium is restored to RGDP, after the short-run disequilibrium in the selected indices. The implication is that RGDP growth process in Nigeria, in the long run, adjusts slowly to the changes in the selected indices, indicating a Policy lag effect. Consequently, Monetary authority should maintain efficient debt monitoring and management; effective and sustainable exchange rate management; infrastructural and technological development to beep up exportation. They should lay emphasis on stable political environment and sustainable economic policies to encourage more FDI. The Policy makers should make policies that would match the magnitude of the expected changes.

International trade and consumption‐based carbon emissions: Does energy efficiency and financial risk ensure sustainable environment?

AbstractSustainable environment is one of the many desirable goals of the modern era, both in developed and developing economies. Energy efficiency (ENEF) with lower political, financial, and economic risk reduces consumption‐based carbon emissions (CCO2) and the decisive international trade and regulatory policy concerning environmental quality. The study examines the role of ENEF and financial risk on international trade‐CCO2 in BRICS countries panel data covering 1990–2019. This study incorporated four risk indexes: political risk (PRI), financial risk (FRI), economic risk (ERI), and composite risk index (CRI). These results of the panel cointegration test confirmed the existence of a cointegration relationship between CCO2, gross domestic product (GDP), exports (EX), imports (IM), ENEF, PRI, financial risk, economic risk, and CRI in the five models. The empirical results of the second‐generation cross‐section augmented autoregressive distributed lags model indicate that EX, ENEF, FRI, PRI, ERI, and CRI are negatively associated with CCO2 in the long run and short run in BRICS countries. Inversely, GDP and IM are positively linked to CCO2 in the long run and short run. The empirical findings of this study provide some policy implications; international trade contributes significantly to improving environmental quality by importing friendly environmentally technologies and less energy‐intensive use production inputs. On the other hand, less energy‐intensive industries for export purposes will support international trade's effective role in improving environmental quality and producing less CCO2 in BRICS economies.

The Impact Of Monetary Policy Using Islamic Or Non-islamic Money Supply On Fdi In Jordan (1980-2018)

This study aimed to investigate the impact of monetary policy using Islamic or non-Islamic money supply on FDI in Jordan. Using time series analysis of selected variables during the period 1980 until 2018 using the ARDL model. The objective achieved the appropriate statistical tests such as data stability and co-integration tests have been used. The variables analyzed include the money supply (M2), the Islamic money supply (IMS), the export (EXP), Government Expenditure (GOV), inflation rate (INR), The gross domestic product (GDP) as independent variables. The dependant variable is the foreign direct investment (FDI). This study results in a long-term and short-term statistically significant correlation between the money supply (M2), the Islamic money supply (IMS) and FDI. The Islamic money supply (IMS) has a positive impact and the money supply (M2) has a negative impact on the FDI. The study recommended; the Jordanian government must implement a targeted Islamic monetary policy to attract foreign direct investment in the Jordanian economy. Provide an appropriate environment for investment and to remove the obstacles to investment in general, in order to attract the capital of Jordanians working abroad for domestic investment, as well as for foreign investments.

Makro Ekonomi dan Pengentasan Kemiskinan di Indonesia

Poverty is still a problem in Indonesia's economy. From the colonial period to 75 years of independence, around 27.55 million people still live below the poverty line. This paper tries to examine the impact of Indonesia's macroeconomic variables as proxied by Economic Growth (GDPG), Inward FDI (FDI), Unemployment (UNM), Inflation (IN), Exports (EXP), Imports (IMP) on Indonesia's absolute poverty (POVY) with using annual data from 1979-2020. This study emphasizes economic growth as the primary variable. At the same time, other independent variables are used as control variables. The method in this study uses Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and applies bounds testing approach to measuring the long-term relationship between the independent and dependent variables. The cointegration limit test shows that there is long-term cointegration between macroeconomic impacts on poverty in Indonesia. The short-term and long-term ARDL models show that all independent variables have a significant relationship with poverty in Indonesia.

Impact of Exports and Foreign Direct Investment on Gross Domestic Product in Sub-Sahara Africa

ABSTRACTBhagwati developed a hypothesis that expected economic growth (EG) enhancing impact of exports (EXP) and foreign direct investment (FDI) interaction. This paper checks the validity of the Bhagwati hypothesis by examining the moderation and mediation effect of EXP in the relationship between FDI and Gross domestic product for Sub Sahara Africa countries (SSA) during 2018 period. To achieve the article purpose, normality test, robust regression, and causal analysis using bootstrapping procedure were performed using R programming environment. The correlation results revealed a strong correlation between FDI-EXP-GDP. The coefficient of the robust regression of the interaction term of EXP and FDI was found positive, and statistically significant. The result of the mediation analysis showed that indirect relationship of FDI was found positive and significant whereas direct relationship was not significant. The results are consistent with the previous studies, theory, and Bhagwati hypothesis. Theorical and practical implications were presented.

Foreign direct investment and export performance using the hierarchical Bayesian vector autoregression framework

The paper investigates the interrelationship between the exports (EXP) and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows with reference to the Indian pharmaceutical industry. It employs the hierarchical Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) framework, which is known to generate accurate out‐of‐sample predictions by selecting appropriate amount of shrinkage and tighter priors. It also performs well in terms of accuracy of the impulse response functions in identified VARs. A unidirectional positive impact from FDI to EXP has been found from the impulse responses drawn from the BVAR model. This result is most likely because most of the Indian pharma multinational corporations (MNCs) infuse their foreign investments to boost EXP from India.

Determining afforestation areas by using social, economic and ecological scales

Global anthropogenic damage is caused when humans aim to improve their welfare by social and economic activities. From this vantage, this paper seeks to determine priority locations for afforestation areas and carbon sinks by using socio-economic and ecological variables. Factor analysis is performed on degraded forest areas (DEGFRST), the ratio of non-forest areas to provincial general area (NFL), average of total monthly rainfall (ATMR), air pollution (PM10), the amount of migration (AMGR), annual average population density (AAPD), gross domestic product by industrial activity (I_GDP), socio-economic development index (SEDI) of provinces, export (EXP) and import (IMP) amount of provinces, average number of cars per one thousand people (ACNPT), and average electricity consumption per person (AECPP) variables for all provinces in Turkey (KMO = 0.802, Bartlett's χ2 = 832.191, and p < 0.0001). Principal component analysis is used as a factor extraction method. Based on the three components obtained (explaining 74.730% of the total variance), the factor scores of 81 provinces were analyzed geostatistically using the Kriging interpolation method. The final map of potential afforestation areas was created using three-factor maps and factor variances, according to weighted overlay analysis. As a result of this study, afforestation priority areas in Turkey were identified based on three components. In subsequent studies, by increasing the number of variables used in this study, strategies for increasing Turkey's carbon sinks can be planned. Evaluating socio-economic and ecological factors together in afforestation studies can contribute to balancing human impact and conservation through alternative approaches.

An Empirical Test of the Export-Led Model in the Member Countries of the Andean Community (Comunidad Andina de Naciones – CAN)

This paper seeks to empirically test the applicability of the export-led model to the economies of the countries belonging to the Andean Community (Comunidad Andina de Naciones – CAN) by verifying the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis, which indicates that gross domestic product (GDP) behavior is based on export (EXP) dynamics. This hypothesis was tested for Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru. The methodology used was the application of Johansen cointegration and Block Exogeneity Wald tests to identify Granger causality between variables of the natural logarithms of EXP and GDP. The results obtained show that the causal effect of exports on GDP can only be rejected for the Bolivian economy. Lastly, the main conclusion of this study is that the economic policies of the CAN member countries should not assume that the export sectors are the foundations of their respective economies. Therefore, the CAN governments should not introduce economic policies that prioritize the expansion of the export sector.

Interdependence between environmental performance and economic growth with a policy approach towards sustainability: Evidence from panel data

An empirical analysis was conducted to show the interdependence relationship across GDP per capita (GDPPC), forest area (FA), metal and ores export (EX), organic water pollution (OWP), greenhouse gas (GHG) emission etc. This study consists of four equations simultaneous model using panel data covering 59 countries of different income groups i.e. higher, middle and lower-income for the period 1990 to 2015. We employed instrumental variable two stage least square (IV/2SLS) method to check the endogeneity problem. FE-2SLS (fixed effect two-stage least square) and RE-2SLS (random effect two-stage least square) models have been employed and followed by the Hausman test to choose between two said, models. The result indicates that organic water pollution, GHG emission and metal and ores export have a direct positive impact on economic growth while forest area is found to harm both GDPPC and GHG emission. Indeed, EX harms the forest but it is insignificant in middle and lower-income groups. The result also suggests that economic growth enhances OWP for higher income and GHG emission for the middle-income group only. Moreover, EX has a positive interconnection with GHG emissions in higher and middle-income groups. Lastly, policy suggestion has been made for attaining asustainable society.

Foreign direct investment and its impact on macroeconomic variables, investment policy in france: Implementing investment framework of France in Uzbekistan

This research is conducted to describe the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on several macroeconomic variables such as sustainable economic growth (GDP growth), unemployment rate(U), export (EXP) and trade openness (TO) in France and studying investment policy in order to use some effective methods in Uzbekistan.

Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Inflation in Nigeria

This study examined the effect of exchange rate volatility on inflation in Nigeria using annual time series data covering the period 1986-2019. To achieve this objective, the study employed the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and vector error correction model (VECM) to ascertain the long-run impact of exchange rate volatility on inflation . The study used consumer price index as a proxy for inflation being the dependent variable while nominal exchange rate (NER), money supply (MS) import (IMP) and export (EPT) were used as the independent variables. The results of stationarity test indicated that the variables have mixed order of integration and bounds test for co-integration confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. Findings showed that money supply (MS) and nominal exchange rate(NER) had positive and significant effect on consumer price index, meaning that inflation in Nigeria is caused by exchange rate fluctuations as well as increase in money supply. Based on the findings, the study recommended that growth of money supply should be controlled by the central bank in order to reduce inflation to the barest minimum.

COORDINATION OF TRADE AND INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS POLICIES

We employ a bilateral R&amp;D spillover model to analyze how a domestic government coordinates its intellectual property rights (IPR) and trade policies and hence affects a foreign firm’s choice between export (EX) and foreign direct investment (FDI). We find that both firms’ profits increase with IPR protection if the IPR protection level in the domestic country is loose. The domestic country can coordinate trade and IPR policies and reach a high welfare level by affecting foreign firm’s entry decisions. The profitability and desirability may decrease with the strength of IPR protection and correspond to a welfare-reducing R&amp;D.

ANALISIS DAMPAK EXPORT RESTRICTION KOMODITI PERTANIAN TERHADAP INDONESIA

The discussion on Restrictions on Agricultural Exports (ER) in the World Trade Organization (WTO), which is a mechanism to temporarily stop the export of agricultural products aimed at preventing food shortages in exporting countries has been intensively negotiated. However, as a net importer of agricultural products and a member of the G33 countries, Indonesia must overcome the ER policy because it might have the potential to increase prices and threaten food security in the Indonesian domestic market. This study uses descriptive qualitative statistical analysis to determine the Import Dependency Ratio (IDR) and Independence Ratio (SSR) for five of Indonesia's main import agricultural products such as rice, corn, soybeans, wheat, and horticulture. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis using GTAP ver.9 is also used to analyze the impact of restrictions on exports of agricultural products for the five products analyzed on macroeconomic and sectoral indicators. Based on IDR and SSR it can be concluded that almost all G33 countries are highly dependent on wheat imports, as many as 36 countries are dependent on imported wheat with IDR values ​​varying between 70% - 215%. The analysis shows that export restrictions will harm Indonesia's macroeconomic. However, by sector, Indonesian farmers and producers can take advantage of the impact of the export restriction policy as an opportunity to increase their production in the context of meeting domestic demand as a result of declining demand for imported food products in the country.&#x0D;