Export Propensities Research Articles

TİCARİ ÇEKİM MODELİNDE ÇOKLU DİRENÇ FAKTÖRÜ VE TÜRKİYE’NİN DIŞ TİCARET EĞİLİMİNİN DEĞERLENDİRMESİ

İlk defa Anderson ve van Wincoop (AvW, 2003) tarafından ortaya atılan Çoklu Direnç Faktörünün (Multilateral Resistance Term), çekim modeli ile yapılan tahminlemelerde değişkenlerin sapmasız ölçülebilmesi için modelde kontrol edilmesi önemlidir. Temelde, ihracat ve ithalatçıların ülke pazarlarına erişimlerinde karşılaştıkları ticaret maliyetlerini yansıtan teorik bir fiyat endeksi olarak yorumlayabileceğimiz “çoklu direnç”, dünya ülkelerinin toplam ihracat ve ithalat hacimlerinin eşit olması zorunluluğunun (pazarın temizlenme şartı) basit bir sonucudur ve en açık şekliyle, rekabetin küresel olduğunu ifade eder. Bu çalışma kapsamında gerçekleştirilen literatür taraması ve metaveri analizi sonucunda Türkiye için yapılan çekim modeli uygulamalarında, çoklu direnç faktörünün çoğunlukla yer almadığı tespit edilmiştir. Buradan hareketle çalışmada, çoklu direnç faktörünün çekim modelindeki yeri ve önemi uluslararası literatürdeki tartışmalar çerçevesinde vurgulanacak ve 1980-2018 yılları için 97 ülkenin çift yönlü ihracat hacimlerinin kullanıldığı bir ampirik çalışma yardımıyla yapısal modelin doğru tahminlenmesinde Havuzlanmış EKK, Sabit ve Rassal Panel Etkiler arasından en uygun yöntem araştırılacaktır. Ayrıca, çekim modeli yardımıyla elde edilen sabit katsayı tahminleri ile ülkelerin çoklu direnç faktörünü de içeren ihracat ve ithalat eğilimleri hesaplanacak ve aralarında bir karşılaştırma yapılacaktır. Bu karşılaştırma ile Türkiye’nin ticari yapısının temel belirleyenleri; ekonomik büyüklük, ikili ilişkiler, rekabetçi pozisyon ve çoklu direnç, ekseninde analiz edilerek hangi noktalarda güçlü veya zayıf kaldığı tanımlanacaktır.

Agricultural exports and potentials of Algeria: an econometric investigation through gravity model

This paper investigates Algeria's export flows, with special reference to agricultural exports, through an econometric analysis. Based on the panel data, the gravity model approach has been used to estimate Algeria's exports determinants through annual data covering the period 2001 to 2017 for 98 trading partners. The study also uses measures for export propensities and potentials to examine agricultural exports performances. The main findings indicate that Algerian export sector corroborates the gravity model, importers' GDP and distance are its significant driven factors, the common culture has a significant effect on the agricultural exports sector, and there are more potential to be tapped. Besides, rankings are obtained based on Algerian exports propensities. Some policy recommendations are derived from this study in order to highlight the main considerations to be taken into account to enhance exports sector performance.

Reassessing the link between firm size and exports

This paper re-examines the link between firm size and exports. The new theories of international trade emphasize firm heterogeneity as the theoretical basis of export behavior. In the context of this heterogeneity, this paper uses the quantile regression methodology to analyze the effects of firm size on firm export propensity (percentage of exported sales). The paper confirms the existence of a positive relationship between firm size and export propensity but finds that the conventional estimates of the elasticity of export propensity with respect to firm size on the average of the export propensities’ distribution underestimate the effect at the bottom of the distribution and overestimate the effect on the rest. Consequently, policies aimed at increasing exports should focus their efforts on increasing the size of those firms with a lower export propensity.

Exporting and Foreign Ownership in Indonesian Manufacturing, 1990-2000

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Investment climate, foreign networks and exporting – evidence from Africa

This paper investigates the impact of investment climate variables and foreign networks on the exporting decisions of African firms. We use data from the World Bank Investment Climate Surveys for over 7000 firms in 24 Sub-Saharan African countries. The results highlight the crucial role of the access to, and the quality of, investment climate characteristics – infrastructure, external finance and telecommunications for Sub-Saharan African firms’ exporting propensities. Our results show that improving the investment climate to the level of best performers in the sample will considerably increase the propensity of domestic firms to export. The paper also finds that foreign networks have a significantly positive impact on firms’ export propensities.

FOREIGN OWNERSHIP AND EXPORTS IN VIETNAMESE MANUFACTURING

This paper analyzes exports of multinational corporations (MNCs) in Vietnamese manufacturing, highlighting the disproportionately large contribution of heavily-foreign MNCs with foreign ownership shares of 90% or more. The exports of heavily-foreign manufacturing MNCs are substantial and concentrated in apparel, footwear, and electric machinery-related industries. Export propensities also tend to be markedly higher in heavily-foreign MNCs than in other MNCs, and these differences generally persist after controlling for the effects industry affiliation, firm size, vintage, and capital intensity. There is a large variation in the relationship between ownership shares and export propensities among industries and years, however.

THE DETERMINANTS OF EXPORT PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FOR MANUFACTURING PLANTS IN IRELAND AND NORTHERN IRELAND

ABSTRACTThe dramatic GDP and export growth of Ireland over the last decade forms a marked contrast with that of its nearest neighbour Northern Ireland. In Ireland, export volume growth averaged 15.5% p.a. from 1991 to 1999 compared with 6.3% from Northern Ireland. Using data on individual manufacturing plants this paper considers the determinants of export performance in the two areas. Larger, externally owned plants with higher skill levels are found to have the highest export propensities in both areas. Other influences (plant age, R&D, etc.) prove more strongly conditional on location, plant size, and ownership. Structural factors (e.g. ownership, industry) explain almost all of the difference in export propensity between larger plants in Northern Ireland and Ireland but only around one‐third of that between smaller plants. Significant differences are also evident between plants in terms of their sources of new technology. For indigenously owned plants, in‐house R&D is important. For externally owned plants, R&D conducted elsewhere in the group – typically outside Ireland and Northern Ireland – proves more significant. This external dependency and lower than expected export propensity on the part of small plants in Northern Ireland represent significant policy challenges for the future.

Export Propensities and Intensities of Small and Medium Manufacturing Enterprises in South Africa

The basic premise of this study is that enterprise linkages, export marketing, and sunk costs significantly affect the propensities to export and intensities of exporting of small and medium manufacturing enterprises in South Africa. The hypothesis tested was that small and medium manufacturing enterprises break through into foreign markets with relative ease when involved in linkages because they facilitate information flows, thereby easing the international marketing burden on the shoulders of individual enterprise units. A theoretical perspective adopted by this study was that small- and medium-sized enterprises involved in enterprise linkages that have intermediaries are in a better position to enter and exit international markets. Empirical testing using survey data confirms this. This study, therefore, recommends that export promotion initiatives should take these factors into account. There are many possibilities discussed in this study. The important point is that there is now clarity about the main hindrances to probabilities of exporting and export intensities of small and medium manufacturing enterprises in South Africa. By implication, export market intelligence should be prioritized.

Which Indonesian firms export? The importance of foreign networks

Abstract. This article examines export propensities among Indonesian manufacturers. The pattern of trade between nations is well understood, but much less is known about firm level determinants to export: why do some Indonesian firms start to export while others continue to produce for the domestic market? One reason for different export propensities could be that the sunk costs for exports differ between firms. This article examines if foreign networks decrease export‐costs and thereby have a positive impact on the export propensity in Indonesian manufacturing establishments. Three different types of foreign networks are examined: foreign ownership, import, and the regional presence of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).

Trade Propensities and Foreign Ownership Shares in Indonesian Manufacturing

This paper examines the relationship between trade propensities and foreign ownership shares in Indonesian manufacturing in 1992 and 1994. Foreign plants had relatively high trade propensities, and plants with high foreign ownership shares had the highest export propensities. Differences in import propensities among foreign ownership groups were relatively small. It might be argued that trade propensities determine foreign ownership shares in Indonesia, which historically waives foreign ownership restrictions for firms that export much of their output. However, this paper argues that causation runs from foreign ownership shares to trade propensities, because multinational firms have strong incentives to restrict access by uncontrolled affiliates to their international marketing networks, and because the relationship persists even when the effects of policy distortions are accounted for. Correspondingly, ownership restrictions that discriminate among foreign ownership groups are likely to reduce the exports of foreign multinational affiliates, but to have a much weaker effect on imports.

Comparisons of Foreign Multinationals and Local Firms in Asian Manufacturing over Time

This paper first shows that shares of foreign multinational corporations (MNCs) in the manufacturing sectors of five Asian host economies (Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan) were generally large in terms of exports, small in terms of employment and moderate in terms of production. Correspondingly, the average product of labour and export propensities were often significantly higher in foreign MNCs than in local firms. In addition, foreign MNCs tended to be relatively large and to have relatively high average capital productivity, capital intensity, skilled‐labour intensity, R&D intensity, profit rates and import propensities, but relatively low shares of labour compensation in value added, and these differences were also statistically significant in many cases. Differences between wholly‐ or heavily‐foreign plants and foreign plants with lower foreign ownership shares were also significant in many cases and generally in the same direction as the differences between MNCs and local plants noted above. Differences among MNCs by foreign source were generally small and insignificant in Hong Kong. In Singapore, European and US firms tended to be larger and characterized by relatively high average labour productivity, capital intensity, profitability and export propensities, but relatively low shares of labour compensation in value added compared to Japanese and other Asian firms.

Comparisons of Japanese Multinationals and Other Firms in Thailand’s Non-oil Manufacturing Industries

This study compares average labour productivity, capital intensity, wages, skill intensity, foreign labour dependence, and trade propensities in Japanese firms and other firms in Thai land's non-oil manufacturing industries in 1990. Firm-level analysis reveals that Japanese firms tend to be relatively capital intensive compared to all other firm groups, pay higher wages compared to local firms as do other foreign firms, be less skill intensive than firms from developed economies, and depend more on foreign workers than do local firms or other developed economy firms, though this dependence is even higher in developing economy firms. All firms with high foreign ownership shares had relatively large export propensities. However, there were few differences between local firms and foreign firms in labour produc tivity and import propensities. Results thus indicate that Japanese multinationals may not differ that much from other multinationals in many respects, despite obvious differences in corporate structures and practices.

Indigenous Manufacturing Enterprises in a Peripheral Economy and the Single Market: The Case of the Republic of Ireland

FOLEY A. and GRIFFITH B. (1992) Indigenous manufacturing enterprises in a peripheral economy and the Single Market: the case of the Republic of Ireland, Reg. Studies 26, 375–386. The impact of the Single Market on indigenous (Irish-owned) manufacturing depends on its export/domestic market orientation, sectoral composition and size scale. Manufacturing in Ireland has a dual structure. The ‘good' features of manufacturing are mainly due to the branch plants of multinationals which have been attracted by inter alia tax incentives and grants. These ‘good' features include high export-to-output ratios and a substantial presence in high technology sectors. Indigenous enterprises are small-scale, have low export propensities and have a limited presence in modern high-technology sectors. Overall, the impact of the Single Market on the long-term development of indigenous enterprises is of less significance than the long-standing weaknesses of scale, product development, technology and managerial capacity. FOLEY A...