Export Patterns Research Articles

Dynamics of sediment-associated nitrogen export from intermittent streams in subtropical forests of southeast China

The significance of intermittent streams in nutrient loss within forest ecosystems is becoming increasingly critical due to changes in precipitation patterns associated with global climate change. However, few studies have focused on nutrient export from intermittent streams. We conducted continuous sediment collection from intermittent streams from March 2022 to February 2023 to investigate the export pattern and mechanism of sediment-associated nitrogen (N) from intermittent streams of different forest types (composed forest of Castanopsis carlesii (Cas. carlesii) and Cunninghamia lanceolata (C. lanceolata) forests, compared to Cas. carlesii forests). We measured the N concentrations and calculated the export amounts of four common forms of N associated with sediments: total N (TN), dissolved N (DN), nitrate, and ammonia. Our results showed that (1) the annual average exports of TN, DN, nitrate, and ammonia associated with sediments from intermittent streams from both forest types were 273, 1.62, 0.26, and 0.84 kg·ha-1, respectively; (2) N export was significantly higher in composite forests of Cas. carlesii and C. lanceolata, compared to Cas. carlesii forests; (3) stream sediment export amount positively affected N export both in composite forests and Cas. carlesii forests; and (4) N export was also controlled by rainfall amount and stream characteristics. Our study quantified sediment-associated N export from intermittent streams among different subtropical forest types, which will enhance our understanding of N dynamics associated with stream hydrological processes in subtropical forests.

Assessing the Competitiveness: Afghanistan’s Fresh Grapes Export Performance in the Global Market

This study assesses Afghanistan’s fresh grapes export competitiveness using methods like CAGR for growth, CDVI for instability, and RCA/RSCA for comparative advantage. It also applied the NPC to evaluate price competitiveness, Markov Chain Analysis to track export patterns, and the Bai-Perron test to identify structural breaks, providing a comprehensive analysis of Afghanistan's global market position during 2008 to 2023. Fresh grapes, was one of the important components of Afghanistan’s agricultural exports, grew considerably in both quantity and value, though their export performance was marked by notable instability. The study highlighted that, Afghanistan had moderate competitiveness in the world market, aided by favorable climatic conditions. However, a low NPC suggested limited trade protection, as domestic prices for Afghan grapes remained below international prices. Comparative analyses showed that, while Chile’s export volumes were declined and value growth held steady due to rising prices. Peru achieved robust export growth despite moderate instability. Italy focused on high quality grapes production primarily for domestic consumption, ensuing with low instability. Pakistan emerged as the most consistent market for Afghan fresh grapes, showed a steady demand that supported Afghanistan’s competitive position in regional trade. Structural breaks in 2015 and 2019 found export volume shifts, with an initial increase from better market access, followed by a decline due to COVID-19. Since 2015, export values declined due to market constraints and economic factors, but recovered strongly with favorable weather and government policy adjustments.

UNDER THE LOAN: AN ANALYSIS OF ARMENIAN BANKING SECTOR AND CREDIT TRENDS

This study examines recent trends in Armenia's banking sector and export patterns, revealing underlying economic vulnerabilities despite apparent growth. Using data from the Central Bank of Armenia and official trade statistics, this paper analyzes shifts in lending patterns across various economic sectors and changes in export composition. Our findings indicate a concerning decline in industrial sector lending, coupled with a significant increase in mortgage and consumer loans. Additionally, we observe a heavy reliance on precious metal re-exports for economic growth, raising questions about the sustainability of Armenia's current economic trajectory. This research contributes to the understanding of potential risks in Armenia's financial system and highlights the need for diversification in its export base.

Neighbourhood First? Status Quo of India’s Trade with the Neighbours

Driven by the objective to create a congenial relationship with the neighbours, the Narendra Modi Government of India instituted the ‘ Neighbourhood First’ policy (NFP) in 2014 which is a continuation of the neighbourhood policy with some new features. Sadly, despite India’s diligent effort expended to enhance its relationship with its neighbours, all exercises were nugatory. It poses the question of how India can effectively pursue the objectives of its foreign policies. The realisation of the NFP’s intended goals remains ambiguous. Consequently, it becomes imperative to assess the impact of Modi’s NFP at this opportune moment. Bilateral trade serves as an essential indicator, reflecting the state of relationships between nations. Thus, this study raises two key questions: first, whether the neighbourhood factor influences India’s exports, and second, how the NFP affects India’s trade with neighbouring countries. The study aims to quantify the impact of the neighbourhood on India’s exports and evaluate the NFP’s role in facilitating trade within the region. The findings reveal that the neighbourhood, as a collective entity, significantly influences India’s exports to neighbouring countries. However, when considering individual countries, the results present a different perspective. Moreover, the study demonstrates that, despite the NFP’s original intention to promote friendly relations with its neighbours, it has not been notably successful. The failure of this policy, along with India’s deteriorating relationships with its neighbors, is evident in its export patterns. JEL Codes: F13, F14

Flow-weighted sourcing of freshwater runoff from Pacific-draining continental and coastal basins in south-western Patagonia (41-56° S): characterizing regional inputs to Chilean fjords

Global estimates of the supply of dissolved and suspended materials to the ocean, in order to be relevant at either political or ecological scales, belie a finer-scale analysis necessary for understanding specific terrestrial-marine interactions. This is especially true for continental runoff to the marine critical zone of inland fjords and channels, where mechanisms, drivers, and predictions need to be elaborated in the context of changing land use and shifting climate forcing. In fjords in south-western Patagonia, runoff from small coastal and large continental basins (~310 x103 km2), sourced from a diverse geography and wide climatic gradient (<150 – 6,000+ mm/year), correspond with a very low density of hydrological and water quality observations. Based on the recently developed regional runoff model (FLOW), we estimated the coastal freshwater discharges and characterized flow-weighted sourcing (land use-cover type, climate, glaciers/geology, and soil province) for Pacific drainages from 41° to 56° south latitude. An estimated 692 km3/year (mean across 1979-2018), or 2% of worldwide total, is more than 85% of previous estimates for the much larger Pacific South American input. Based on limited water quality observations and inference from runoff sourcing, we predict general patterns of export for four groups of continental resources important for marine productivity, including: significant regional variation in flow seasonality, a N-S gradient in declining input of silicic acid and increased glacial input of sediment and iron, and potential shift in dissolved organic matter input sources from rainforest (potentially labile) to peatlands (refractory). Finally, we emphasize the temporal and spatial consequences of near-reference condition river runoff for marine ecosystem productivity and function in the Patagonian fjords, with specific recommendations for water quality standards and sustained monitoring for coupled river and marine ecosystems.

Pesticide Use, Regulation, and Policies in Indian Agriculture

This research paper presents a comprehensive analysis of pesticide use in global and Indian agriculture, focusing on the mounting food security challenges due to population growth and the increased demand for food and fiber crops. While pesticides are crucial in mitigating losses due to pests, diseases, and weeds, increasing apprehension regarding their adverse effects on human and environment health necessitates a critical examination of their usage patterns. Despite India’s relatively low per-hectare pesticide usage of 0.4 kg compared to China’s 1.83 kg, issues with pesticide residue contamination in the food chain require urgent attention. Additionally, significant regional disparities in pesticide application highlight the need for more uniform and sustainable agricultural practices. Therefore, this study examines the evolving trends in global and Indian pesticide application, providing a comprehensive analysis of the shifting dynamics across various Indian states and crop varieties. Furthermore, it analyzes various pesticide categories and their respective market shares, providing insights into production and export patterns. Our research also explores regulatory frameworks aimed at optimizing pesticide use while minimizing detrimental effects on human health and the environment.

Quantifying Surface Shelf Water Export in the Southern Middle Atlantic Bight Using a Lagrangian Particle Tracking Approach

AbstractShelf water is influenced by atmospheric forcing, river outflows, and the open ocean. Studying its variability is crucial for understanding anthropogenic impacts on coastal oceans and their transport to the open ocean. In the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB), the interaction of the Gulf Stream with shelf/slope circulation leads to some of the complex exchanges between the shelf and open ocean along the U.S. East Coast. This study employs a Lagrangian particle tracking approach, grounded in a high‐resolution, data‐assimilative ocean reanalysis, to examine the export pathways of surface shelf water in the MAB. We analyzed over 700 daily images of simulated particle distributions using image clustering techniques. This revealed three distinct export patterns: abrupt entrainment to the Gulf Stream, gradual entrainment, and southern transport. Each pattern was observed roughly equally during the study period from January 2017 to December 2018. The observed export patterns are closely linked to the coastal circulation dynamics near Cape Hatteras. Understanding the timing and duration of these patterns is vital for assessing water quality and predicting the settlement of species that spawn in the region. Our study further underscores the influence of tropical cyclones, including Hurricanes Jose, Maria, and Chris, on these export patterns. These extreme weather events lead to significant shifts in coastal circulation near Cape Hatteras.

Seasonal patterns in riverine carbon form and export from a temperate forested watershed in Southeast Alaska

Riverine export of carbon (C) is an important part of the global C cycle; however, most riverine C budgets focus on individual forms of C and fail to comprehensively measure both organic and inorganic C species in concert. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted high frequency sampling of multiple C forms, including dissolved organic C (DOC), inorganic carbon (as alkalinity), particulate organic C (POC), coarse particulate organic C (CPOC), and invertebrate biomass C across the main run-off season in a predominantly rain-fed watershed in Southeast Alaska. Streamwater concentrations were used to model daily watershed C export from May through October. Concentration and modeled yield data indicated that DOC was the primary form of riverine C export (8708 kg C/km2), except during low flow periods when alkalinity (3125 kg C/km2) was the dominant form of C export. Relative to DOC and alkalinity, export of particulate organic C (POC: 992 kg C/km2; CPOC: 313 kg C/km2) and invertebrates (40 kg C/km2) was small, but these forms of organic matter could disproportionately impact downstream food webs because of their higher quality, assessed via C to nitrogen ratios. These seasonal and flow driven changes to C form and export likely provide subsidies to downstream and nearshore ecosystems such that predicted shifts in regional hydroclimate could substantially impact C transfer and incorporation into aquatic food webs.

Temporal Analysis of Livestock Production and Exports and its Significance for Food Security

Background: Livestock provides diverse food and non-food products, supports rural households along with serving as a secondary source of income for small and marginal farmers. Livestock aids in food production, enriches soil fertility and supply raw material to various industries. Livestock directly contributes to nutritional security by providing essential proteins and micronutrients, preventing under-nutrition and deficiencies.This paper delves into the changing scenario of India’s livestock sector by examining production, export patterns of livestock products and the role of livestock in food and nutritional security. Methods: Available secondary data on production of livestock products in India have been divided into four sub periods: sub period-I (1980-81 to 1989-90), sub period-II (1990-91 to 1999-00), sub period-III (2000-01 to 2009-10) and sub period-IV (2010-11 to 2021-22) and have been analyzed along with export data covering the period 1991-2021 andpopulation data from first livestock census (1951) after independence to 20th livestock census (2019). Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) using trend equation and instability index using Cuddy Della Valle Index has been worked out for the data. Result: Production of egg, milk and meat has shown consistent growth of around 6%, 5% and 8%, respectively over the past five decades with low to moderate overall instability (~8-21%). But wool production has turned negative in the last two decades despite India being the world’s third-largest sheep population. The growth in exports of dairy and meat products has gained momentum after globalization with a significant overall growth rate of 10.37% and 7.10% for the period under study. But in terms of instability dairy exports are more volatile (68.11%) compared to meat products (30.39%). Exports of poultry products showed negative growth rates with the highest instability (86.77%) over the entire study period.

Rebalancing agri-food trade flows due to Russian import ban: the case of direct neighbors

In recent years, research on trade rebalancing in agri-food supply chains has gained prominence due to trade sanctions, supply chain disruptions, and vulnerabilities exposed by pandemics and conflicts. This study focuses on the recalibration of agri-food trade dynamics, using the 2014 Russian import ban as a case study. The ban significantly altered the structure of agri-food export destinations for affected countries, particularly those sharing a border with Russia (e.g., Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania). Employing a cross-section regression model and structural break tests, we assess the trade rebalancing process. Our findings reveal short-term trade rebalancing effects, primarily observed in product groups not traditionally considered main trade specializations. There is evidence that significant part of the lost trade was redirected to EU28 or EAEU countries and end up in the common trade areas of these countries. Furthermore, we argue that the Russian import ban initiated a long-term structural shift in export patterns for non-traditionally traded banned products, while rebalancing for traditionally traded products was significantly quicker.

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Digital Trade Barriers on the Development of China's Cross-Border E-Commerce Industry

The economy of China has been in a progressive and prosperous condition for a while. The traditional industrial sector of China is a major strength of the Chinese economy. In the current times, the upgradation of this sector, with the advent of newer options such as digitization, is becoming more and more popular, innovative and developed. Due to such introductions, newer economic possibilities, such as electronic commercial activities across borders, are emerging out. Depending on the consumers' choice and demand, a newer export pattern is being developed, in which both the electronic commercial activities across the borders and the conventional foreign trade are evolving, while being intertwined with each other. In this study, it is empirically investigated whether changes in the digitally created trade barriers have an impact on the e-commerce transacted across the borders, taking into consideration some of the influencing factors such as GDP, labor productivity, geographical distance etc. The empirical analysis finds that cross-border e-commerce is negatively correlated with digital trade barriers. Also, an econometric model has been developed to quantify this relationship including the effects of control variables.

Solute export patterns across the contiguous USA

AbstractUnderstanding controls on solute export to streams is challenging because heterogeneous catchments can respond uniquely to drivers of environmental change. To understand general solute export patterns, we used a large‐scale inductive approach to evaluate concentration–discharge (C–Q) metrics across catchments spanning a broad range of catchment attributes and hydroclimatic drivers. We leveraged paired C–Q data for 11 solutes from CAMELS‐Chem, a database built upon an existing dataset of catchment and hydroclimatic attributes from relatively undisturbed catchments across the contiguous USA. Because C–Q relationships with Q thresholds reflect a shift in solute export dynamics and are poorly characterized across solutes and diverse catchments, we analysed C–Q relationships using Bayesian segmented regression to quantify Q thresholds in the C–Q relationship. Threshold responses were rare, representing only 12% of C–Q relationships, 56% of which occurred for solutes predominantly sourced from bedrock. Further, solutes were dominated by one or two C–Q patterns that reflected vertical solute–source distributions. Specifically, solutes predominantly sourced from bedrock had diluting C–Q responses in 43%–70% of catchments, and solutes predominantly sourced from soils had more enrichment responses in 35%–51% of catchments. We also linked C–Q relationships to catchment and hydroclimatic attributes to understand controls on export patterns. The relationships were generally weak despite the diversity of solutes and attribute types considered. However, catchment and hydroclimatic attributes in the central USA typically drove the most divergent export behaviour for solutes. Further, we illustrate how our inductive approach generated new hypotheses that can be tested at discrete, representative catchments using deductive approaches to better understand the processes underlying solute export patterns. Finally, given these long‐term C–Q relationships are from minimally disturbed catchments, our findings can be used as benchmarks for change in more disturbed catchments.

Changes in mesophotic carbonate‐platform export across the end of the last glacial cycle (Saya de Malha Bank, western Indian Ocean)

AbstractThe export of neritic material from the top of carbonate platforms is a key process in the construction of their slopes. However, our knowledge of the supply pattern of materials from platforms is dominantly based on platforms lying in the euphotic zone during the present sea‐level highstand. This is a somewhat biased perspective as through geological time not all platforms were euphotic. The Saya de Malha Bank in the Mascarene Plateau is an example of a modern mesophotic carbonate platform, and as such, its flooding and export patterns differ from those of euphotic ones. Using cores collected on the western slope of the Saya de Malha Bank, the export patterns of the platform since the last glacial maximum were explored. Material on the platform edge is winnowed and transported to the slope by multiple possible processes. The material on the platform is a combination of high and low magnesium calcite as well as high and low strontium aragonite, integrating pelagic and neritic sources. The ratio of these constituents varies over time with changes in the platform production capability as it was flooded and drowned during the Holocene transgression. The material from the platform is transported in both confined flows, mainly during lowstands, and unconfined flows, mainly during late transgression and early highstand. In the present state of the highstand, supply may have diminished, leading to erosion of the canyon shoulders.

Divergence Between Long‐Term and Event‐Scale Nitrate Export Patterns

AbstractThe mechanisms driving catchment nitrogen storage and release operate at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Consequently, analyses grounded in different observational timescales can yield discrepant interpretations of underlying mechanisms. To assess the consistency of nitrate export patterns between event‐ and inter‐annual scales, we evaluated multiple years of high‐frequency observations of nitrate concentrations (C) and discharge (Q) including 3,480 discrete discharge events from 28 dominantly agricultural catchments. We observed consistent and often drastic divergence between long‐term and median event‐specific C‐Q patterns. Most catchments showed long‐term enrichment patterns (positive C‐Q slope), but events were, on average, more chemostatic (close‐to‐zero C‐Q slopes). C‐Q slope variability was high for small events but decreased with event magnitude, approaching chemostatic patterns during the largest storms, yielding compelling evidence against nitrate source limitation. We conclude that nitrate export patterns observed at different temporal scales and event magnitudes are controlled by different processes, therefore embedding complementary information.

Impact of Dynamic Phytoplankton Stoichiometry on Global Scale Patterns of Nutrient Limitation, Nitrogen Fixation, and Carbon Export

AbstractPhytoplankton stoichiometry modulates the interaction between carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles. Environmentally driven variations in phytoplankton C:N:P can alter biogeochemical cycling compared to expectations under fixed ratios. In fact, the assumption of fixed C:N:P has been linked to Earth System Model (ESM) biases and potential misrepresentation of responses to future change. Here we integrate key elements of the Adaptive Trait Optimization Model (ATOM) for phytoplankton stoichiometry with the Carbon, Ocean Biogeochemistry and Lower Trophics (COBALT) ocean biogeochemical model. Within a series of global ocean‐ice‐ecosystem retrospective simulations, ATOM‐COBALT reproduced observations of phytoplankton N:P, and compared to static ratios, exhibited reduced phytoplankton P‐limitation, enhanced N‐fixation, and increased low‐latitude export, improving consistency with observations and highlighting the biogeochemical implications of dynamic N:P. We applied ATOM‐COBALT to explore the impacts of different physiological mechanisms hypothesized to underlie N:P variation, finding that two mechanisms together drove the observed patterns: proportionality of P‐rich ribosomes in phytoplankton cells to growth rates and reductions in P‐storage during scarcity. A third mechanism which linked temperature with phytoplankton biomass allocations to non‐ribosomal proteins, led only to relatively modest impacts because this mechanism decreased the temperature dependence of phytoplankton growth rates, compensating for changes in N:P. We find that there are quantitative response differences that associate distinctive biogeochemical footprints with each mechanism, which are most apparent in highly productive low‐latitude regions. These results suggest that variable phytoplankton N:P makes phytoplankton productivity and export resilient to environmental changes, and support further research on the physiological and environmental drivers of phytoplankton stoichiometry and biogeochemical role.

Escalating Carbon Export from High-Elevation Rivers in a Warming Climate.

High-elevation mountains have experienced disproportionately rapid warming, yet the effect of warming on the lateral export of terrestrial carbon to rivers remains poorly explored and understood in these regions. Here, we present a long-term data set of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and a more detailed, short-term data set of DIC, δ13CDIC, and organic carbon from two major rivers of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the Jinsha River (JSR) and the Yalong River (YLR). In the higher-elevation JSR with ∼51% continuous permafrost coverage, warming (>3 °C) and increasing precipitation coincided with substantially increased DIC concentrations by 35% and fluxes by 110%. In the lower-elevation YLR with ∼14% continuous permafrost, such increases did not occur despite a comparable extent of warming. Riverine concentrations of dissolved and particulate organic carbon increased with discharge (mobilization) in both rivers. In the JSR, DIC concentrations transitioned from dilution (decreasing concentration with discharge) in earlier, colder years to chemostasis (relatively constant concentration) in later, warmer years. This changing pattern, together with lighter δ13CDIC under high discharge, suggests that permafrost thawing boosts DIC production and export via enhancing soil respiration and weathering. These findings reveal the predominant role of warming in altering carbon lateral export by escalating concentrations and fluxes and modifying export patterns.

The ugly side of the Africa-UAE (United Arab Emirates) gold trade: Gold export misreporting and smuggling

United Arab Emirates (UAE) has become one of the major world's gold hubs and sources most of its gold from Africa. This paper examines the magnitude and patterns of gold export misreporting in the Africa-UAE gold trade. Africa-UAE gold trade is found to be characterized by overwhelming misreporting and smuggling. The most common practice is found to be gold export underreporting. To examine the drivers of gold export misreporting in the Africa-UAE gold trade, a dynamic panel data model was estimated. The estimation results indicate that export tax, the gold price, and institutional factors are the main drivers of gold export misreporting in the Africa-UAE gold trade. The drivers of pure gold smuggling are found to be the gold price and real exchange rate. The results indicate also that both gold export misreporting and smuggling exhibit some persistence behavior. The findings of this study point to improving African countries' institutions to reduce the extent of gold export misreporting in the Africa-UAE trade. Export tax rate can also be reduced to lower the incentives of gold export underreporting. African countries can also work towards harmonizing the regulatory frameworks concerning gold trade, to curb gold smuggling across African countries. UAE has a major role to play in deterring gold smuggling from Africa; export documents and proof of payment of export taxes from the exporting countries, should be required from those hand-carrying gold as they declare their gold to customs officers in Dubai.

Analysis of Competitiveness of Azerbaijan Persimmon Export in the International Market

The research examined the changing pattern of export in persimmon in Azerbaijan at a macro level within 10 years from 2012 to 2021. Persimmon is the leading export of the Azerbaijan agricultural sector. Due to favorable growing conditions in Azerbaijan, persimmon cultivation has a massive range. The export of Azerbaijan persimmon is playing an important role in at the many households and increasing year after year. RCA model has been applied to evaluate the competitiveness of Azerbaijan persimmon export.

Spatio-Temporal analysis of exports of cultural products and their affecting factors for spatial distribution.

Cultural products constitute a significant portion of global trade, and understanding their export patterns can shed light on economic trends, trade dynamics, and market opportunities. This study conducted the spatio-temporal analysis of exports of cultural products, exploring the relationship between various influencing factors and their impact on the spatial distribution of these exports. Leveraging a diverse dataset encompassing 55 BRI countries for the period of 2005-2022, this research employs advanced spatial analysis techniques, including spatial autocorrelation and spatial regression models, to examine the spatial patterns and determinants of exports if cultural product exports. Moreover, this study delves into the multifaceted determinants affecting the spatial distribution of these exports. The findings of this study reveal significant spatio-temporal variations in the exports of cultural products. Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicates the presence of spatial clustering, suggesting that regions with high cultural product exports tend to be geographically close to each other. The spatial regression models further identify several key factors like economic development, productive capacities, cultural tourism, information development and human capital influence the spatial distribution of these exports. The findings of the study reveal that there is strong spatial relationship for exports of cultural products in BRI countries. The findings of this research contribute valuable insights for policymakers, businesses, and stakeholders regarding a deeper comprehension of the driving forces behind the spatial distribution of these cultural products, facilitating informed decision-making processes to optimize strategies for promoting and sustaining the trade of cultural products in an increasingly interconnected world.

Eutrophication hotspots, nitrogen fluxes and climate impacts in estuarine ecosystems: A model study of the Odra estuary system

The Odra estuary in the southern Baltic Sea comprises the Odra (Szczecin) Lagoon, the Pomeranian Bay and a number of other shallow water areas and channels. Known for its abundance of fish, eutrophication in the Odra Lagoon is a pressing issue for science and environmental management representing a global problem: What determines the seasonal variability of nitrogen and nitrogen turnover in shallow water areas, and how does seasonal variability change due to climatic changes such as warming and sea level rise? How do such changes affect nutrient exports to the regional ocean? This study employs a high-resolution unstructured model system to investigate physical-biogeochemical interactions, nitrogen turnover, and conditions leading to nitrogen export to the Baltic Sea within the Odra estuary. The research comprises hindcast and a climatic experiment with modified water level and temperature inputs. The model reproduces the thermohaline dynamics of brackish shallow water areas, phytoplankton blooms and the variability of inorganic nitrogen. The simulations identify the dynamic partitioning of the Odra Lagoon into the highly eutrophic, lake-like Small Lagoon and more frequently flushed, zooplankton-rich Great Lagoon. Although the two years of the hindcast simulation feature very different boundary conditions in terms of river forcing, comparable patterns of seasonal nitrogen export emerge. In a climate change experiment with increased sea levels and global temperatures, the system appears sensitive, but remains stable with regard to nutrient transport and is therefore predictable. The climate change experiment reveals enhanced primary producer biomass concentrations, suggesting heightened eutrophication. While in the shallow waters of Odra Lagoon oxygen concentration remains relatively stable, oxygen depletion intensifies as the lagoon outflows enter the Pomeranian Bay. This phenomenon is linked to increased denitrification within the stratified Odra plume. Deeper, meandering channels, such as Swina, demonstrate resilience to oxygen reduction, influenced by sea level rise and enhanced currents. Based on the temporal-spatial high-resolution coupled, validated simulations, it is possible to develop tailor-made management solutions without having to run expensive and complicated observation campaigns in the shallow waters with complex topography.