Export Multiplier Research Articles

Foreign Trade and Macroeconomic Effects of Exports

We find that the IS-LM model and the national income model reinforce each other in the context of exports and the export multiplier. Using simple differentiation techniques, we derive several relationships with respect to foreign trade. As predicted by Keynes, exports have a favorable effect on national income and the interest rate. Exports also increase the average price level and the exchange rate in the country. Through the mechanism of the export multiplier exports increase imports, savings, and consumption. A higher propensity to import reduces national income and fosters a negative trade balance. Similar is the effect of a higher exchange rate which discourages exports and encourages imports.

Fiscal, Investment and Export Multipliers and the COVID-19 Pandemic Slowdowns Uncertainty Factor in the First Half of 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a significant slowdown in the development of almost all economies in the world. In this context, the main goal of this research is to try to present changes in the value of fiscal, investment and export multipliers as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The research was conducted in selected European Union countries. They are France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal and Spain. This research is based on the theory of effective demand. The values of feeds and leakages of total demand in the period from 2015 to 2020 were examined and calculated. On this basis, the individual multipliers of autonomous spending were analyzed and their changes in the first period of the COVID-19 pandemic were presented. The analyses led to a surprising conclusion: it found that the autonomous spending multipliers in some economies increased. This means that they have become ‘security buffers’ for the health of economies. This means that the increase in their value weakened the negative effects of changes in autonomous expenditure on gross domestic product.

Autonomous Expenditure Multipliers and Gross Value Added

The paper aims to answer two main questions. Is it possible to calculate and analyze fiscal, investment and export multipliers in the short term? The classic approach is mainly based on the input–output balances, which are most often published every 5 years. Is it possible to determine the impact of autonomous expenditure on the growth rate of gross value added? Research and analysis are based primarily on the principle of aggregate demand and the main assumptions of the economic Keynesian model. In the paper, I present theoretical considerations to answer research questions. I have verified the proposed method for calculating the multipliers of autonomous expenditure and the relationship between autonomous expenditure and gross value added in empirical studies. To this end, I have chosen the three economies of the Weimar Group countries. It has emerged that the proposed method allows us to examine the growth rate of value added relative to GDP in the short term, while using the fiscal, investment and export multipliers mechanism.

The influence of the Washington Consensus programme on the transitional economies of Eastern Europe - a firm-level analysis

This research explores the effectiveness of the Washington Consensus (WC) programme as a mechanism for improving national welfare in transition and emerging economies, using its internalisation by the European Union (EU) as a proxy. The results indicate that there is a positive benefit to firms with accession to the EU, leading to greater productivity improvement and performance advantages than in non-member states. Foreign direct investment directly benefitted those firms that became investees, with little evidence of spillovers to domestic companies. The vertical nature of the investment, with an emphasis on international production networks that utilise significant levels of foreign inputs, infers protection of intellectual property and a reduction in value added, with results indicating a failure to achieve an export multiplier. There is evidence of substantial benefits accruing to firms in receipt of loans, but the apparent paucity of their availability may imply market failure. The gains made by innovative firms do not appear to do justice to the initiatives undertaken and may indicate a dilution of national innovative capacity.

Reduced Impact of Export on Korea’s Economic Growth – Export Multiplier Approach

Reduced Impact of Export on Korea’s Economic Growth – Export Multiplier Approach

A Simple Open Economy Model: A Non-Linear Dynamic Approach

The objective of this article is to derive a simple dynamic macroeconomic model of an open economy to show how an economy as a dynamic system can work. The proposed model is resulted from the traditional Mundell-Fleming model. Unlike the Mundell-Fleming model, we introduce a continuous dynamic and non-linearity. Non-linearity in our model is represented by a non-linear investment function. The non-linear investment function is introduced as the propensity to invest function, which is assumed to be captured by the logistic function of production. After that, the stability of the model is analysed using Hurwitz stability theorem. The behaviour of our non-linear macroeconomic model of open economy is demonstrated on two numerical examples in which two different sets of parameters are selected to examine the dynamic of the system with emphasis on the impact of export multiplier. The presented examples show that the model is able to generate very complex dynamic.

Reduced Export Multiplier of the Korean Economy

Reduced Export Multiplier of the Korean Economy

Bangladeshi Short-Run and Long-Run Marginal Propensities to Consume :

The short-run and long-rum marginal propensities to consume are the critical figures determining consumption, investment, government expenditure, import, and export multipliers as indicatives how effective and costly national macroeconomic policy actions .Empirical results reveal that both Bangladeshi shortand long-run marginal propensities to consume are smaller than unity. Additionally, from Keynesian macroeconomic theory, the magnitude of the MPC in the economy determines the consumption, investment, government expenditure, and import and export multipliers. Therefore, the smaller the MPCs, the smaller the multipliers are, the larger the countercyclical the policy adjustment must be to achieve a certain countercyclical macroeconomic policy objective.

Dual-use products export multipliers with the indirect effects

The micro–macro link is provided for the impact of the dual-use defence-civilian exports of products and services on the Slovenian economy. The unique firm-level data on the dual-use export is integrated in the symmetric 60 groups of activities input–output tables. The classification of the economic activities is used to integrate data on the firm-to-firm dual-use export transactions in the symmetric input–output coding system to avoid the double counting. The input–output modelling approach is used for the measuring of the direct input–output flows and the dual-use products export multipliers with the indirect effects. The direct and indirect effects are analysed by the economic activities, technological intensity of the products and services, and statistical regions in Slovenia. Comparisons with alternative non dual-use high tech are analysed by economic activities in terms of value-added and labour productivity. The dual-use export is associated with high technologically intensive suppliers and sub-suppliers of defence-civilian goods and services. The empirical estimations can serve as a guide in questions of comparing with alternative in economic policy design when investigating trade-offs between allocation of expenditures for defence equipment and their opportunity costs for non dual-use of high tech products and services.

The seven main “stylized facts” of the Mexican economy since trade liberalization and NAFTA

In Mexico, a remarkably dynamic expansion of exports has been associated with a surprisingly poor overall growth performance. Moreover, this collapse of the export multiplier took place in a context of both massive inflows of foreign direct investment and unrestricted market access to the US--the first two items on all developing countries' growth agenda today. Therefore, the study of Mexico is an ideal scenario within which to assess the impact of the new development model on growth and catching up. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

From Giblin to Kalecki : The Export Multiplier and the Balance of Payments Constraint On Economic Growth, 1930–1933

In this paper i discuss the origin of the concept, between 1930 and 1933, in the writings of L.F. Giblin, R.F. Kahn, Roy Harrold and Michal Kalecki. Of the four, i argue, Kalecki's treatment of the export multiplier is most interesting, not least because he anticipated much more recent analyses of the balance of payments constraint on economic growth.

GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM OF A REGIONAL ECONOMY WITH A FINANCIAL SECTOR–PART II: A SIMPLE BEHAVIORAL MODEL

ABSTRACT. Simple behavioral assumptions are incorporated into an accounting framework that provides linked budget and balance sheets for sectors of a regional economy. A short‐run Keynesian‐type model is developed where quantities rather than prices adjust, and where regional prices and interest rates are equal to national levels. The analysis highlights the importance of the financial services sector as an active factor in regional growth. Consumer deposit and debt preferences, and limitations imposed on credit extension by the financial services sector can have important effects on the regional economy as evidenced by changes in the export multiplier.

Estimates of South American Beef Export Multipliers

Estimates of South American Beef Export Multipliers

Exports and National Income in Canada

The following analysis is primarily concerned with definite mathematical expressions of the relationship between export and national income values in Canada as it developed during the inter-war period, with an attempt to measure the export multiplier and the influence of the barter terms of trade upon the national income, and to make tentative projections into the future.The mathematical expressions for this relationship are alternatively based (1) on the time series for exports and national income and (2) on the deviations from the linear trends of exports and national income over the period 1923-38. The year 1939 is omitted as the war distorted the relationship even then. The years prior to 1923 are eliminated as their inclusion would lead to inverse correlations in individual cases owing to disturbances in currency relations, abnormal lags and leads in the equilibration of the respective balances of payment, and sudden shifts in the proportional evolution of domestic and foreign markets in the countries concerned.