Export Basket Research Articles

China India Merchandise Trade: Opportunities and Challenges

Using the export data at HS 2-digit level, the paper shows that China has maintained a stable export basket over time. By comparison India has intensified exports of competitive products indicating greater penetration into the world markets. The export structures of China and India demonstrate a large number of opportunities indicating greater possibilities of augmenting the trade structures. For both economies, the number of bilaterally competitive products is less than the number of internationally competitive exports. The competing interests that constitute the challenges, between China and India, in products with high intensity of low priced unskilled labour weigh down the bilateral competitiveness despite presence of international comparative advantage. The behaviour of China’s bilateral competitiveness vis-a-vis India has become more consistent with products demonstrating competitiveness both at the bilateral and international levels. The pattern of India’s bilateral competitiveness vis-a-vis China continues to be in tandem with India’s international competitiveness, albeit to a lesser extent than before. The performance of India’s bilateral exports seems to have been restricted due to procedural delays. By comparison, China’s exports to India exhibit relative departure from international competitiveness demonstrating its ability to penetrate the Indian markets.

Trade in Central and Eastern European countries ten years after their EU accession — Is there convergence?

The paper focuses on the effects of EU’s Eastern Enlargement of 2004 on trade convergence within the EU and among the new member states from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE-8). Using sigma-convergence approach, it finds evidence of convergence of exports and imports per capita as well as of productivity levels associated with the member states’ export baskets. Convergence of territorial and commodity structures of trade has not occurred; conversely, divergence has been observed, leading to the possible conclusion that multinational companies have adjusted their production structure in facilities across the EU to achieve higher economies of scale. Correlation analysis shows that revealed comparative advantages of the old and new member states have come closer to each other. As an example, the paper also offers a brief comparison of trade development in two CEE-8 countries, Latvia and Slovakia, after their entry into the EU.

UMA AVALIAÇÃO DA SIMILARIDADE E DA SOFISTICAÇÃO DAS EXPORTAÇÕES DOS PAÍSES DO CONE SUL

O objetivo deste estudo é fazer uma análise evolutiva da estrutura das exportações dos países do Cone Sul (Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Paraguai e Uruguai) no período entre 2000 e 2011. Para tanto, são utilizados índices de similaridade e de sofisticação das exportações que permitem avaliar a especialização das exportações, baseados no fato de que bens similares que cada dois países exportam para determinado mercado podem ser considerados competidores nesse mercado. Os resultados mostram que os indicadores de similaridade não avançaram no período estudado, enquanto os de sofisticação evoluíram abaixo da média mundial. De uma maneira geral, os países apresentaram uma pauta de exportações muito dependente dos produtos primários e agrícolas, para os quais eles já têm vantagem competitiva nos mercados internacionais. A mudança na estrutura da cesta de exportações apresentou crescimento menor do que a média dos demais países, indicando que os países do Cone Sul têm tido dificuldades em especializar-se nos produtos com conteúdo de renda elevado.

<b>Integração comercial da região Sul com o BRICS: uma análise através de indicadores tradicionais de comércio internacional entre 2000 e 2012

The structure of international trade of the Brazilian southern region with the BRICS countries is analyzed and the traditional indicators of international trade between peers were measured. Results show that south Brazilian commerce-BRICS trade has predominantly interindustry features. The products considered strong points in the region with the highest export potential comprise food, beverages, tobacco, leather shoes and hide. These results indicate that policies aimed at diversifying the export basket of the Brazilian southern states should not be neglected.

Trade liberalization and export diversification

The paper examines the implications of tariff reductions for diversification of export basket across and within industries measured in terms of larger sets of homogeneous goods and horizontally-differentiated varieties in two country world. In a synthesis of analytical structures of Dornbusch, Fisher and Samuelson (1977) and Krugman (1979) we establish that unilateral tariff reduction may make the liberalizing country's exports diversified both across and within sectors whereas the trading partner may experience across-sector diversification. Under bilateral tariff reduction exports of larger number of differentiated varieties may be realized only for the country in whose favour the ratio of national wages moves.

An Analysis of India’s Export Performance with China

India and China are two rapidly emerging economies in the world. With their high growth rates and huge markets, these two Asian giants have attracted the attention of international business mangers to take a fresh look at the rapidly emerging opportunities in the two countries. Today, India–China relations are conspicuous by the fast rise of their merchandise trade, which has already crossed US$ 42 billion in 2009–2010. China has already become India’s second largest trade partner only after UAE. Besides this, China has also become one of the most favourite destinations for Indian exporters. China’s share in India’s global exports has increased rapidly from just 0.10 per cent in 1990–1991 to 6.47 per cent in 2009–2010. However, this growth of Indian exports to China has not been equally distributed over various commodity groups. In fact, Indian exports to China are mainly dominated by natural resource-based raw materials or semi-manufactured products which are not considered to be healthy from the Indian point of view. Hence, there is an urgent need to add some technologically advanced products in the export basket to China. According to the need of the time, the present study examines the various trends that occurred in growth and structure of Indian exports to China during the last two decades.

Territorial Development of Russia as a Leading Exporter on Global Commodity Markets

The article discusses the infl uence of Russia’s participation on global commodity markets as the leading exporter on its territorial development. Survey of four centuries shows that in the 17th century the export of furs was the most important, in the 18th century – of “ship goods”, in the 19th century the export of grain joined the export basket of the country, as well as gold, in the 20th century oil and gas became key export commodities. It is shown that consequent waves of development and urbanization of the country were related with export of these goods on global markets. Four major historic-geographical macroregions of Russia are identifi ed, where urbanization and evolution of territorial structure of the economy were largely formed by the participation on the relevant global markets and intense wave of territorial development in corresponding centuries.

Estudio de los principales sectores competitivos del Valle del Cauca en relación con el comercio internacional

Se presenta un análisis sectorial del Valle del Cauca frente al comercio internacional, debido a la necesidad de realizar estudios que hagan una mayor exploración de indicadores de comercio exterior a nivel regional y sectorial, sirviendo de base para la generación de estrategias en exportación; aplicando los indicadores en relación con la posición comercial, dinamismo internacional y dinámica intrarregional a la canasta exportadora del Valle del Cauca, seleccionada por la participación de los sectores en el total de exportaciones del departamento, permitiendo hacer un análisis holístico sobre el comportamiento y perspectiva de cada sector en el ámbito internacional. Se concluye que el Valle del Cauca es un departamento competitivo en los sectores de azúcar y confites, papel y cartón- manufacturas de pasta, máquinas- aparatos y material eléctrico; en el ámbito internacional, estos sectores presentan un desempeño alto en exportaciones y participación, además logran consolidar los destinos de Venezuela, Ecuador, Chile y Perú, como socios comerciales del departamento.

The Export Performance of Turkey (1996-2013)

The high import content of Turkish exports and the dominance of low- and medium-tech in Turkey’s export basket pose a challenge to sustainable current account deficit and economic growth. In this study, we investigate the export performance of Turkey to understand the underlying causes of high current account deficit. First, we show that Turkey performs poorly compared to its competitors in terms of innovation and skills, business environment and access to finance, which are the main factors that stimulate exports. Next, we test whether improvements in these areas would contribute to the export performance of Turkish firms. We use a data set from the Productivity and the Investment Climate Survey (2005) and the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (2008, 2013), carried out by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank. The results suggest that more-productive and larger firms are more likely to export. Also, innovation, inward foreign direct investment, foreign input use and better marketing boost the export probability. After a successful entry, export sales increase by productivity, size and foreign ownership. We also show that the export performance is associated with different factors for firms different in size and small- and medium-sized firms rely on trade intermediaries to export their products.

Assessing the Prospects of Processed Fruit & Vegetable Export from India to Gulf Countries

India, the second largest producer of fruit and vegetable in the world, exports fresh fruits and vegetables, processed fruits and vegetables, animal products, other processed foods and cereals worth of US$ 5.45 billion as on November 2010-2011 to different parts of the world. In the world exports of processed fruits/vegetable (in terms of value) India stood at US$ 1.59 billion in 2008. These raw fruits and vegetables are usually processed in other economies and become a source of revenue for those economies. In spite of being a major producer of fruits & vegetables India has not been exporting much of processed food made out of these items. The change in the income growth, increase in population, lifestyle and concern towards health and nutrition worldwide have resulted in a large demand for processed fruit and vegetable products all over the globe. India being a large producer of fruits and vegetables it apparently looks quite prospective to be able to supply this large demand for the processed food. This will not only fetch revenue by the way of increased exports from India but will also serve to control the large wastage of fruits and vegetables that takes place in the country. From locational point of view, India is better placed to export fruits and vegetable to Gulf countries which also happens to be a large market for these products. As such India has been exporting raw fruits and vegetables to majority of all gulf countries but processed fruits and vegetable products which are also in high demand in the Gulf countries have been majorly absent from India’s export basket to these countries. Against this backdrop, the present study seeks to identify the list of potential processed fruits and vegetable products in which India is expected to gain from increased exports to Gulf countries. In other words, the study will try to prepare India’s aggressive position with respect to processed fruit & vegetable products in the Gulf market. The research methodology used is CGE modeling analysis. The implication of this increase in export on India’s trade variables & impact on the economy’s fruit and vegetable sector in particular will be analyzed. Subsequently, the paper also tries to explore the various challenges with respect to marketing these products in the destination countries.

Make in India: Which Exports Can Drive the Next Wave of Growth?

Structural transformation depends not only on how much countries export but also on what they export and with whom they trade. This paper breaks new ground in analyzing India’s exports by the technological content, quality, sophistication, and complexity of the export basket. We identify five priority areas for policies: (1) reduction of trade costs, at and behind the border; (2) further liberalization of FDI including through simplification of regulations and procedures; (3) improving infrastructure including in urban areas to enhance manufacturing and services in cities; (4) preparing labor resources (skills) and markets (flexibility) for the technological progress that will shape jobs in the years ahead; and (5) creating an enabling environment for innovation and entrepreneurship to draw the economy into higher productivity activities.

Transforming Non-Renewable Resource Economies (NREs)

This paper provides an empirical benchmarking of growth, productivity and export patterns for developing NREs against other low and middle income developing countries, to inform policy discussions and future analytical work. There is stark heterogeneity in the association of resource sector and overall growth outcomes, by commodity and degree of dependence. Over the long term, inter-sectoral growth dynamics have been more muted for NREs than other developing countries, especially at lower incomes. Despite productivity convergence in mining, as expected, productivity growth in manufacturing and services was generally lower in NREs. Exceptions are few, in East Asia and the CIS area which experienced broad-based productivity growth. NRE product exports are more concentrated and relatively less complex, though we find increasingly diversified service export baskets. Technological progress and specialization in trade in services may offer diversification options for the future.

Transforming Non-Renewable Resource Economies (NREs)

This paper provides an empirical benchmarking of growth, productivity and export patterns for developing NREs against other low and middle income developing countries, to inform policy discussions and future analytical work. There is stark heterogeneity in the association of resource sector and overall growth outcomes, by commodity and degree of dependence. Over the long term, inter-sectoral growth dynamics have been more muted for NREs than other developing countries, especially at lower incomes. Despite productivity convergence in mining, as expected, productivity growth in manufacturing and services was generally lower in NREs. Exceptions are few, in East Asia and the CIS area which experienced broad-based productivity growth. NRE product exports are more concentrated and relatively less complex, though we find increasingly diversified service export baskets. Technological progress and specialization in trade in services may offer diversification options for the future.

Capitalizing Gains from Dairy Trade: Excavating the Market Potential

After recording a huge negative trade balance of dairy products during 1980s, India has evolved as net exporter in dairy trade during the last three decades. Exports of dairy products increased almost 200 times since early 1980s to later half of new millennium whereas value of imports decreased by 7 times by this period. The export perceived vast changes in composition as well as destination over the study period. The present study analyses the temporal changes in composition and direction of Indian dairy exports at most disaggregate level in light of several policy interventions during last three decades and identify the potential sources of gains thereof. The study is based on the secondary data from various sources on several variables, the major being dairy trade statistics from DGCI&S and ministry of commerce for 1980–81 to 2009–10. Compositional analyses of export basket indicates that India has multiplied its product portfolio from traditional dairy products like concentrated and sweetened milk and cream and fat based products to value added dairy products like cheese and curds, whey based products, yogurt and other acidified dairy products. Harfindahl index of geographical concentration indicates that the country has continuously diversified trade destinations over the last three decades. New trade partners have emerged in African Countries apart from conventional partners from Asian and European countries. In light of the empirical evidences, the study concludes that generation of more exportable surplus through improved breeding and feeding programmes is the key to amplify the foreign exchange earnings from dairy sector. Policy and research emphasis should be on development of efficient milk value chain to boost trade. To improve the bargaining power of the country, on the quality front, India should improve its image as a reliable and consistent supplier of safe and quality dairy products conforming to the international standards. A comprehensive strategy for producing quality and safe dairy products should be formulated with legal backdrop. Harmonization of BIS (Bureau of Indian Standards) quality standards with that of international quality standards will go a long way in materializing the export potential of Indian products into foreign currency.

As You Sow So Shall You Reap: From Capabilities to Opportunities

Long-run growth is about the structural transformation (diversification and upgrading) of the economy, itself a function of the accumulation of capabilities that allows a country to produce new and more unique products. In this paper, we develop an “Index of Opportunities” for 96 non-high-income countries. This Index summarises countries' capabilities to undergo structural transformation, as captured by their export baskets. It has four dimensions—sophistication, diversification, “standardness” and possibilities for exporting new products with revealed comparative advantage. We find that China, India, Poland, Thailand, Mexico and Brazil rank high in the index. This means that these countries have accumulated significant capabilities (as reflected in their export baskets) and hence are well positioned for further economic transformation. At the other extreme, Guinea, Malawi, Benin, Mauritania and Haiti score very poorly. While both groups of countries need to focus policy on the development of capabilities that facilitate structural transformation, the nature and degree of policy support required are very different.

Whither Latin America? Scoping Export Potentials and Trade Barriers in the Malaysia-Chile Partnership

This study seeks to compare bilateral export potential estimates in the Malaysia-Chile partnership within the COntextof the emerging region of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and identify barriers to trade, to provide insights into bilateral market access for exporters. Clearly, the empirical findings suggest overtrading in the major exporting sectors from both sides, since the export basket is also concentrated both ways in the Malaysia-Chile trade. Through the interviews, fewer restrictions are reported by the various stakeholders, as the extent of trade engagement is still somewhat low. Instead, the challenges identified within specific sub-sectors from both sides relate mainly to procedures set to secure compliance. They mostly indicate adherence to labeling requirements for food products. More importantly, this study strongly recommends the direct involvement of the business community of Malaysia in cross-regional initiatives to identify opportunities for creating supply chains in Chile for specific sectors, namely in electronics, furniture and base metals.

A Comparative Analysis of the Export Performances of China and India: Evidence from US Imports

 Abstract—This paper compares the export performances of China and India, the two largest labour-abundant countries. The empirical analysis of the paper is based on US imports from these two countries at the ten-digit level for 1992-2012. The paper examines the composition of exports from China and India, the degree of concentration of exports, and the extent of export similarity. The paper also explores the nature of product differentiation based on unit prices of exports from China and India. The empirical analyses show that China's shares in the US market, for both high-technology products and labour-intensive products, are substantially higher than that of India. Furthermore, China's export basket, compared to India's, is more diversified, and that the extent of export similarity between China and India in the US market is quite low. The data on unit prices of exports suggest that China has outperformed India in vertically differentiated products.

Dynamics of structural transformation in South Asia

This paper contains an analysis of the pattern of growth and the structure of employment in various sectors of six South Asian economies (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka); the trends in the technological capabilities of these countries are also examined, by characterizing the structure of their exports. It shows that although the level of sophistication is lower compared with East Asian economies, the distribution of exports in South Asian countries has shifted towards products that have a higher productivity index and are located “centrally” in product space, enabling production of several nearby goods. In terms of the summary measure of the proximity of the export basket to all currently unexploited products, highvalue ones in particular, the potential for future export sophistication is seen to be the highest for India among the South Asian countries and lowest for Bhutan followed by Bangladesh. Going by the East Asian experience, the South Asian governments have an important role to play in transforming their industrial structures.

Http://www.mcser.org/journal/index.php/mjss/article/view/3055

The paper examined “the role of export diversification on economic growth in South Africa”. The study used annual time series secondary data for the period covering 1980 to 2010 and employed a Vector Error Correction Model to determine the effects of export diversification and possible factors that affect it on economic growth. Possible factors that affect export diversification considered as independent variables in this study include gross capital formation, human capital, real effective exchange rate and trade openness. Results of the study reveal that export diversification and trade openness are positively related to economic growth while real effective exchange rate, capital formation and human capital have negative long run relationships with economic growth. The study recommends the continual implementation of trade liberalisation by the South African government. The South African government is also encouraged promote the production of a diversified export basket through subsidisation and promotion of innovation and production of new products. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n9p705

India's Trade with BRICS and the World: Implications on Skill and Technology Content

This paper analyses India’s exports to, and imports from, the four bilateral partners like Brazil, Russian Federation, China and South Africa (BRCS). The complete analysis carried out for the period 2007 to 2012. At the aggregate level, India had an overall negative trade balance with the BRCS trading partners. Reflected in India’s negative trade balance with China, Russia Federation and South Africa. The only country with which if enjoyed a trade surplus is with Brazil. Using the UNCTAD has classified the products into two broad categories i.e., Primary Products and Value Added Products. In 2012, the product count in resource intensive products has 31 percent share with 10 percent share in value of exports. The high skill- & technology intensive manufactures had 24 percent share in terms of product count while it had only 19 percent share in value of exports. Medium skill- & technology intensive manufactures had 21 percent share of tariff lines but accounted for 9.7 shares in terms of value of exports. Similarly, skill- & technology intensive manufactures accounted for nearly 12 percent share in tariff lines, but in terms of value, it accounted only 3.7 percent share. Overall, the category of Primary Products (PP), which includes the non-fuel primary commodities and mineral fuels accounted for 12.4 percent share of the total tariff lines and 58 percent share of the value of exports from India. The dominant country (based on top 20 imports) for imports by India from among the BRCS partner’s countries has been China, followed by South Africa, Brazil and Russian Federation. An analysis was undertaken to identify India's exports in three categories - value added exports in which exports potential is not fully exploited; products which have a high export potential across BRCS countries; and products with export potential in the BRCS partners but India does not have the supply capacities. The general composition of products in the three categories to the BRCS countries showed considerable similarities, South Africa showed some crucial difference with the dominance of export potential items realised by India’s exports having the highest number 352 products almost 42 percent share of total India’s VA exports – the highest share across the BRCS partner countries observed under this scenario. Under the first category of “export potential realised by Indian exports” only 23 products found to be common across BRCS countries accounting for 11 percent of the 222 products. While in the case of second category, “India's export capacity not fully exploited” nearly 83 percent of products found to be common to 3 to 4 countries of BRCS partners. Similarly, in the last category of “existing market in partner with India facing Supply Constraint” close to 84 percent of products were common to 3 or 4 countries. The tariff across countries have been converging by 2012, within a range of 7 to 15 percent, the extent of usage of non-tariff measures that needs to be scrutinised. India had a much lower WTO notified restrictions in terms of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) when compared with its Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) measures. Recommendations: 1. India having export capacity but not fully exploited category had nearly 50 percent share of the total Indian exports to BRCS. There is an urgent need for revamping the production structures in those tariff lines that identified to have the potential for exports but was not been fully exploited. One reason could be the prevalence of behind the border measures and regulations in the importing partners. This needs to be addressed by forging mutual recognition of standards, testing procedures, conformity assessment and accreditation of testing laboratories. 2. Primary product (PP) has a higher share in India's export basket to BRCS when compared to value added (VA) products. Special initiatives are required to promote value added exports from India to BRCS.