Expert Judgment Approach Research Articles

What competencies should early childhood educators possess for the future? An expert judgement approach

IntroductionThe objective of this research was to identify and discuss the professional competencies essential for early childhood educators to effectively navigate current challenges and anticipate future ones. The study aims to contribute to the development of a competency framework tailored specifically for early childhood education.MethodsA proposed set of general teaching competencies was subjected to validation by a panel of experts, including early childhood teachers and academic professionals specializing in this field. The process involved adapting and refining these competencies to suit the early childhood education stage.ResultsExpert consultation confirmed the relevance and appropriateness of the proposed competency dimensions for early childhood educators. The experts emphasized several critical aspects, including the importance of building relationships, providing emotional support, employing nonverbal communication, and fostering family involvement. They also highlighted the significance of observation and educational documentation in the early years.DiscussionThe findings underscore the need for reflection on the specific professional competencies required for early childhood educators, which is crucial for enhancing both initial and ongoing teacher training programs. This research contributes to the ongoing dialogue about the competencies necessary for educators, emphasizing the development of teaching practices that address the unique demands of early childhood education.

Derivation of site-specific environmental quality guideline values for fuel-contaminated soils on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island.

Accidental fuel spills associated with the storage, transfer, and use of diesel fuel for power generation have occurred on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island since the establishment of the island's research station in 1948. An extensive in situ remediation program was implemented by the Australian government from 2009 to 2016 that used nutrient addition and air sparging to enhance the microbial degradation of petroleum products. During this period, a range of ecotoxicological assessments were conducted to better understand the impacts of fuel in soils on native biota and their sensitivity. This study compiles this ecotoxicological data into a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) to establish environmental quality guideline values (EQGVs) for fuels in soils on Macquarie Island. The SSD model includes 13 critical effect concentrations (CECs) selected using an expert judgment approach. These include data from functional and community-based tests as well as traditional single-species toxicity tests using microbes, plants, and invertebrates and representing the range of carbon content (~3%-48%) and fuel composition at various stages of degradation (from fresh to 18 months aged) in soils as occurs at contaminated sites on the island. A protective concentration (PC80) of 97 mg/kg TPH C9-C40 (95% CI 24-283) was derived for special Antarctic blend diesel from the SSD and is recommended as an appropriate site-specific EQGV and potential remediation target for the immediate station area in the vicinity of infrastructure. More conservative PC values are also provided for areas with higher conservation values outside the station footprint. These EQGVs are the first to be produced for fuels in the sub-Antarctic and Antarctic regions. They will be used to inform ongoing environmental management on Macquarie Island and are likely suitable and recommended for use more broadly across the sub-Antarctic. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1-13. © 2024 Commonwealth of Australia. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Structured expert judgement approach of the health impact of various chemicals and classes of chemicals.

Chemical contamination and pollution are an ongoing threat to human health and the environment. The concern over the consequences of chemical exposures at the global level continues to grow. Because resources are constrained, there is a need to prioritize interventions focused on the greatest health impact. Data, especially related to chemical exposures, are rarely available for most substances of concern, and alternate methods to evaluate their impact are needed. A Structured Expert Judgment (Research Outreach, 2021) process was performed to provide plausible estimates of health impacts for 16 commonly found pollutants: asbestos, arsenic, benzene, chromium, cadmium, dioxins, fluoride, highly hazardous pesticides (HHPs), lead, mercury, polycyclic-aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), Per- and Polyfluorinated Substances (PFAs), phthalates, endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs), and brominated flame retardants (BRFs). This process, undertaken by sector experts, weighed individual estimations of the probable global health scale health impacts of each pollutant using objective estimates of the expert opinions' statistical accuracy and informativeness. The foremost substances, in terms of mean projected annual total deaths, were lead, asbestos, arsenic, and HHPs. Lead surpasses the others by a large margin, with an estimated median value of 1.7 million deaths annually. The three other substances averaged between 136,000 and 274,000 deaths per year. Of the 12 other chemicals evaluated, none reached an estimated annual death count exceeding 100,000. These findings underscore the importance of prioritizing available resources on reducing and remediating the impacts of these key pollutants. Based on the evidence available, experts concluded some of the more notorious chemical pollutants, such as PCBs and dioxin, do not result in high levels of human health impact from a global scale perspective. However, the chemical toxicity of some compounds released in recent decades, such as Endocrine Disrupters and PFAs, cannot be ignored, even if current impacts are limited. Moreover, the impact of some chemicals may be disproportionately large in some geographic areas. Continued research and monitoring are essential; and a preventative approach is needed for chemicals. These results, and potential similar analyses of other chemicals, are provided as inputs to ongoing discussions about priority setting for global chemicals and pollution management. Furthermore, we suggest that this SEJ process be repeated periodically as new information becomes available.

Cognitive pairwise comparison forward feature selection with deep learning for astronomical object classification with sloan digital sky survey

This paper proposes a hybrid approach integrating the expert knowledge judgment approach using the Cognitive Pairwise Comparison (CPC) to the Deep Learning, a modern classification approach, for astronomic object classification. The astronomic data with ten thousand samples retrieved from Sloan Digital Sky Survey Sky Server Data Release 15 (SDSS SkyServer DR 15) are used for this study. The CPC is an approach to elicit and encode expert knowledge in the format of a Pairwise Opposite Matrix (POM) to evaluate expert preferences for the features. A forward feature selection algorithm taking the expert choices using CPC for the ordered features is used for the feature selection for the deep learning algorithm to build a heuristic training model based on the astronomic data. Whilst the accuracy of the case of improper feature selection is just 37.1%, the proposed hybrid approach can obtain a very high accuracy of 97.9% for the classification of the astronomic object using the eight scaled features (u, g, r, i, z redshift, ra, dec). To extend this research, the proposed CPC can be used as a human-centered tool to be applied to other areas of data sciences.

An ontology-based knowledge representation using OWL for Indonesian local regulations

<div class="WordSection1"><p>Inconsistencies in legislation can significantly hinder the effectiveness and efficiency of the central and local government administrations. The Indonesian government requires standard harmonization of each piece of legislation to prevent such problems. However, this process is often manual and requires the involvement of multiple experts with varying backgrounds. This leads to high resource expenses regarding human resources, cost, and time. To address this, a software system should be developed to detect potential disharmony among legislation. However, the system requires a well-constructed legislation conceptual model represented in an appropriate modeling language. This research aims to develop the Indonesian local regulation ontology in web ontology language (OWL), where no such ontology exists. The ontology was created using the Ontology Development 101 methodology and evaluated using competency questions and expert judgment approaches. The resulting ontology becomes a basis for developing an automatic recommendation system to detect potentially inconsistent legislation in future works.</p></div>

Development and validation of a novel scale for antiretroviral therapy readiness among pregnant women in urban Zambia with newly diagnosed HIV infection

BackgroundWomen who are newly diagnosed with HIV infection during pregnancy may not be ready to immediately initiate lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART; called Option B +) as is recommended. Lack of “readiness” drives early disengagement from care and undermines prevention of HIV transmission to infants. Several studies have shown high early attrition of women initiating ART in pregnancy. Although poor ART uptake and adherence have been attributed to various factors including stigma, disclosure issues and structural issues, there is no standard way of determining which pregnant woman will face challenges and therefore need additional support. We developed and validated a novel ART readiness tool in Lusaka, Zambia.MethodsThe aim of this study was to develop and validate a tool that could be used to assess how ready a newly diagnosed pregnant woman living with HIV would be to initiate ART on the day of diagnosis. Using a mixed method design, we conducted this study in three public-setting health facilities in Lusaka, Zambia. Informed by qualitative research and literature review, we identified 27 candidate items. We assessed content validity using expert and target population judgment approaches. We administered the 27-item questionnaire to 454 newly diagnosed pregnant women living with HIV, who were enrolled into a randomized trial (trials number NCT02459678). We performed item reduction analysis and used Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of 0.70 as threshold for reliability.ResultsA total of 454 pregnant women living with HIV enrolled in the study between March 2017 and December 2017; 452 had complete data for analysis. The correlation coefficient between the 27 items on the completed ART readiness scale ranged from 0.31 to 0.70 while item discrimination index ranged from -0.01 to 2.38. Sixteen items were selected for the final scale, representing three domains, which we classified as “internalized and anticipated HIV stigma”, “partner support” and “anticipated structural barriers”.ConclusionWe developed and validated a tool that could be used to assess readiness of newly diagnosed women living with HIV to initiate ART. This ART readiness tool could allow clinics to tailor limited resources to pregnant women living with HIV needing additional support to initiate and remain on ART.

Ice Sheet and Climate Processes Driving the Uncertainty in Projections of Future Sea Level Rise: Findings From a Structured Expert Judgement Approach.

The ice sheets covering Antarctica and Greenland present the greatest uncertainty in, and largest potential contribution to, future sea level rise. The uncertainty arises from a paucity of suitable observations covering the full range of ice sheet behaviors, incomplete understanding of the influences of diverse processes, and limitations in defining key boundary conditions for the numerical models. To investigate the impact of these uncertainties on ice sheet projections we undertook a structured expert judgement study. Here, we interrogate the findings of that study to identify the dominant drivers of uncertainty in projections and their relative importance as a function of ice sheet and time. We find that for the 21st century, Greenland surface melting, in particular the role of surface albedo effects, and West Antarctic ice dynamics, specifically the role of ice shelf buttressing, dominate the uncertainty. The importance of these effects holds under both a high-end 5°C global warming scenario and another that limits global warming to 2°C. During the 22nd century the dominant drivers of uncertainty shift. Under the 5°C scenario, East Antarctic ice dynamics dominate the uncertainty in projections, driven by the possible role of ice flow instabilities. These dynamic effects only become dominant, however, for a temperature scenario above the Paris Agreement 2°C target and beyond 2100. Our findings identify key processes and factors that need to be addressed in future modeling and observational studies in order to reduce uncertainties in ice sheet projections.

Prospective analysis of the role of actors in governing mangrove ecosystem area in Tangerang District, Indonesia

Abstract. Mahardika SMAH, Yulianda F, Adrianto L, Sulistiono. 2022. Prospective analysis of the role of actors in governing mangrove ecosystem area in Tangerang District, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 23: 4940-4947. The role of actors in the governance of mangrove ecosystems is one of the main factors in determining the sustainability of mangrove ecosystem management in the Tangerang District, Banten, Indonesia. The research aims to analyze actors' prospective role in the strategy of governance of mangrove ecosystems areas in Tangerang using the MACTOR method. This research is a descriptive case study with an expert judgment approach. The study results show that the central and local governments have an important role in the governance strategy of mangrove ecosystem areas in the Tangerang. The two actors can collaborate with the local community, the private sector, universities, NGOs, research institutions, and high schools. The strategy for the governance of mangrove ecosystems in Tangerang can be done by increasing the role of each actor by encouraging the central government and local governments to implement programs to achieve the most supportive strategic goals, namely the management of mangrove ecosystems based on collaborative management (co-management). The strategy can be easily implemented and get more optimal results by involving the role of the user community, NGOs, universities, local governments, and research institutions where the level of collaboration (convergence) is high to support the strategy.

Multi-dimensional barrier identification for wind farm repowering in Spain through an expert judgment approach

Spain was one of the pioneers in the deployment of wind energy systems worldwide and thus since 2014 has a potential for repowering that reaches between 3.3 and 8.7 GW in 2021 (12%–32% of its current installed wind capacity). However, despite the technical and economic advantages, we have observed little interest from promoters in the repowering of already amortized wind farms. The aim of the proposed study is to depict the background framework of barriers for repowering wind farms, which is specially affecting to Spain, but that can also extend to other EU countries. Therefore, we conducted a systematic survey study with academics, promoters, financial experts, manufacturers, operators, maintainers and policymakers to identify and understand the existing real and practical barriers. As a result, we have identified 34 major barriers covering five categories: technical issues, economics, environmental considerations, social concerns, and regulatory and administrative hurdles. We then asked the experts to rate these barriers based on their impact or relevance. We found that the experts agree that regulatory and administrative barriers have the maximum impact, while economic, environmental and technical barriers have only a mid-high impact. Therefore, we can conclude that, in general, the Administration must develop a concise and stable regulatory framework for all RES, especially for repowering projects, and carry out a review of both the technical requirements and the incentives schemes, with a focus on energy efficiency.

Quantification of the impact of factors affecting the technical performance of operating room personnel: Expert judgment approach.

Incorrect assessment of the performance shaping factors (PSFs), especially in health care systems, may lead to irreversible consequences such as death. The current study aimed to adapt PSFs taxonomy given in standardized plant analysis risk human reliability analysis (SPAR-H) technique to surgical context. PSFs taxonomy of the SPAR-H technique was revised, and more contextspecific definitions to surgical context were suggested. Step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA) and eleven-digit numerical scale were used for quantification of the weight and negative influence rate of the PSFs during surgical processes, respectively. Nine PSFs were proposed following the SPAR-H taxonomy. The order of the importance of the PSFs was quietly conflicting in terms of weight and negative influence rate. From the perspective of experts, fatigue and threat stress were assessed as the most important PSFs in terms of both weight and negative influence rate. Current study has offered a domain-based understanding of the PSFs, particularly in the surgical context. Results of this study could be used to evaluate human error behaviors during the performance of tasks in the operating room. Moreover, these results could be used for improving patient safety programs in health care systems.

Adaptation of the standardized plant analysis–risk human reliability analysis technique for the surgical setting: expert judgment approach

Objectives. Application of human reliability analysis (HRA) techniques originally developed for industrial settings to the healthcare sector may be controversial in terms of reliability and methodological level. The aim of the present study was to adapt a standardized plant analysis risk–human reliability analysis (SPAR-H) technique for application in surgical settings through suggesting more context-specific definitions for performance shaping factors (PSFs), designing precise levels and elicitation of multipliers through a domain expert judgment approach. Methods. A ratio magnitude estimation approach was used for carrying out domain expert judgment for multiplier elicitation. Experts from four teaching hospitals participated in the present study. Intra-class correlation was used in order to examine the inter-rater reliability of the estimated multipliers for each level of diagnosis and action task type. Results. Available time, threat stress, task complexity, experience/training, procedures, working conditions, human–machine interface, fatigue and teamwork were the nine suggested PSFs for the adapted SPAR-H technique. Conclusion. Context-specific definitions of the PSFs can enhance the reliability of human error probability assessments. Eventually, it could be concluded that multiplier elicitation through domain expert judgment is an efficient approach for adaptation of the HRA techniques for application in specific contexts.

Risk Management of Training Services in PT MMK

One of the business training services that is rapidly grown is at the Occupational Health and Safety (Keselamatan dan Kesehatan Kerja (K3)) training services. PT MMK is a K3 training service company that has been developed since 2016. However, PT MMK faces some risks in its business activities. There are various problems and potential risks faced by PT MMK, so it needs a business risk management observation. The research aimed to identify and analyze the level of risk faced by PT MMK by applying a quantitative method. The primary and secondary data were used. Sampling was carried out by using non-probability techniques with purposive sampling through the expert judgment approach. There were eight respondents in the research. Meanwhile, the applied analytical methods were Cochran analysis and Godfrey risk map. The result shows that based on four divisions, PT MMK has 30 internal risks and 8 external risks. There are 4 low-level risks, 14 moderate-level risks, 19 high-level risks, and 1 extreme-level risk. Based on the highest risks, PT MMK should do detailed budgeting, so there is no over cost based on the previous training budget. Moreover, the company can also expand its market share to the other companies by offering its training.

ACHIEVING ORGANIZATIONAL PERFORMANCE THROUGH TRANSFORMATIONAL LEADERSHIP APPROACH: A STUDY OF SELECTED PUBLIC SECTOR ORGANIZATIONS

The aim of this study was to investigate ways of achieving organizational performance through transformational leadership approach, a study of selected public sector organizations in Anambra State Nigeria. The survey research design was used for this study. The study population was three thousand four hundred and thirty six staff (3436) while the sample size was three hundred and forty five (345) arrived at using Krejcie and Morgan (1970) formula. Bowley’s Population Allocation Formula (1964) was used in arriving at the number of questionnaire allocated to each sampled organization because of the differences in the number of employees. Questionnaire was used for data collection. The reliability of the questionnaire was tested by using Cronbach's alpha to access the internal consistency of the items. The study employed expert judgment approach to access content validity. Pearson’s product moment correlation technique was adopted to analyze the data at 0.05 level of significance. The findings indicate that transformational leadership and organizational performance in the selected public sector organizations had a strong positive and significant correlation. Keywords: Transformational Leadership, Public Sector Organization, Organizational Performance, Social Exchange Theory.

Forecasting the Development of Self-Driving Technology in China by Multidimensional Information

Due to the demand for safety and convenience in traveling, self-driving technology has developed very fast in the past decades. In this paper, a novel technology forecasting model is developed. The topic-based text mining and expert judgment approaches are combined to forecast the technology trends efficiently and accurately. To improve the reliability of the results, multidimensional information including scientific papers, patents, and industry data is considered. Then, the model is utilized to forecast the development trends of self-driving technology in China. Data ranging from 2002 to 2019 are adopted with proper data cleaning. Topic clustering for papers and patents is performed, and the hierarchical structures are constructed. On this basis, the results of technology’s evolution based on papers and patents are compared and the development trends are obtained. With these results, it is speculated that technology on “Decision” will be the next hotspot in patents. The research results of this paper will provide reference and guidance for Chinese enterprises and government in decision-making on self-driving technology.

Expert judgement-based risk factor identification and analysis for an effective nuclear decommissioning risk assessment modeling

There is a growing number of decommissioned nuclear facilities, and the trend of planned nuclear-decommissioning projects does not show any decline. To ensure safe and economical nuclear decommissioning, a robust risk assessment model capable of evaluating all the risk factors associated with a nuclear decommissioning project is critical. This study identifies and evaluates novel nuclear decommissioning project risk factors. A comprehensive literature search is done to identify all the relevant risk factors. Then, an expert judgement approach is used in evaluating the identified risk factors and developing novel risk factors. The expert judgement technique is implemented using a web-based questionnaire containing all 81 identified risk factors from the literature search as a prompt. The respondents are sixty recognized nuclear-decommissioning experts. Forty-eight responses were received, while 9 responses were discarded based on predefined criteria. Resulting from the unique experience of the experts in managing nuclear-decommissioning projects, twenty-four additional novel risk factors are proposed. Moreover, a scoring metric is used to evaluate the proposed novel risk factors. The result shows that the facility pre-decommissioning radiological characteristics are a major risk factor with a median score of 5, while 50 other risk factors (61.7%) have a median score of 4, and 30 risk factors (37%) has a median score of 3 or 3.5. Calculating the risk factors with the percentage scores between 4 and 5 in each risk family, it is observed that legal and regulatory framework (85.7%), stakeholders (83.3%), and initial condition of the facility (77.8%) are the highest-ranking risk family. The result serves as a pilot study that presents critical information towards the design and implementation of robust risk assessment models for nuclear decommissioning.

Quality assessment of escaping silver eel (Anguilla anguilla L.) to support management and conservation strategies in Mediterranean coastal lagoons.

Silver eel samples, collected from the lagoons of Fogliano and Caprolace (Italy), were investigated for a broad range of contaminants (29 polychlorinated biphenyls, 9 polybrominated diphenyl ethers, 5 dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane, 5 chlordanes, hexachlorobenzene, 3 hexachlorocyclohexane, and 5 metals). Concentrations of targeted compounds stand for a general low contamination pattern. Infestation by Anguillicola crassus and virus infections were also examined. No parasite infestation was found, while infected silver eels had a low prevalence for EVEX, and, for the first time in the Mediterranean area, for AngHV-1. Overall, a good quality status of escaping silver eels, for both lagoons, was highlighted by the use of integrative Indexes. A quality assessment of the ecological status of the two lagoons was carried out developing an expert judgment approach, in order to characterize the habitat of eel stocks. A Final Pressure Index was derived, whose values showed an overall limited global anthropogenic impact acting on both lagoons. Results stand for the suitability of an integrated approach to assess lagoon habitats and eel local stocks quality. This could be proposed as a tool to identify sites yielding high quality eel spawners in the Mediterranean region, in order to set up suitable management frameworks, providing elements to appraise and discuss the potential of coastal lagoons in the Mediterranean region towards the recovery of the eel global stock.

Reliability analysis of a steam boiler system by expert judgment method and best-fit failure model method: a new approach

PurposeIndia's textile industries play a vital role in the Indian economy. These industries consume the highest thermal energy (steam power). The demand of the steam in process industries is increasing rapidly, and this demand can be met by increasing the capacity utilization of steam boilers. The purpose of this paper is to present a new approach for reliability analysis by expert judgment method.Design/methodology/approachA lack of adequate life data is one of the biggest challenge in the reliability analysis of mechanical systems. This research provides an expert judgment approach for assessing the boiler's reliability characteristics. For this purpose, opinions of experts on time to failure and time to repair data were elicited in the form of statistical distributions. In this work, reliability analysis of the boiler system is carried out by expert judgment method and by using best-fit failure model. The system reliability along with preventive maintenance intervals of all components is also evaluated.FindingsIt is observed that the reliability analysis results obtained by expert judgment method and best-fit failure model method indicate that there are no significant differences. Therefore, in case when insufficient data are available, the expert judgment method can be effectively used. The analysis shows that the feedwater tank, feedwater pump, supply water temperature sensor, strainer, return water temperature sensor, condensate filter, mechanical dust collector, coal crusher and fusible plug are identified as critical components from a reliability perspective, and preventive maintenance strategy is suggested for these components.Originality/valueIn this research paper, a system reliability model by the expert judgment method is developed, and it can be effectively used where insufficient failure data are available. This paper is useful for the comparative evaluation of reliability characteristics of a boiler system by expert judgment method and best-fit failure model method.

Anticipated impacts of Brexit scenarios on UK food prices and implications for policies on poverty and health: a structured expert judgement approach

IntroductionFood insecurity is associated with increased risk for several health conditions and with poor chronic disease management. Key determinants for household food insecurity are income and food costs. Whereas short-term...

THE COLLABORATIVE ENVIRONMENT USING THE INTERNET OF THINGS IN THE THEMATIC BASED LEARNING AT THE PRIMARY SCHOOL IN INDONESIA

Information and communication technology is growing rapidly and has an enormous influence on various fields of life, including the area of education. The level of penetration of the use of technology is also high in Indonesia. The Internet of things (IoT) is increasingly being used to support various activities. It can be said that IoT provides new opportunities. However, although there are already many uses in multiple fields, the integration of this technology with education is still a problem for educators. Considering the spirit of the National Education Curriculum reform in Indonesia, there are critical changes in managing learning environment, among them the shift from teacher-centered learning to student-centered learning especially with thematic learning in elementary schools. Thematic knowledge has also been developed in several countries with good results to improve various competencies following 21st century learning such as 4C (critical thinking, creativity, communication, and collaboration). The purpose of this study was to create a learning design that integrates IoT in thematic learning in elementary schools on issues about climate change. For this purpose, it was necessary to prepare an Internet of Things based measurement apparatus using node MCU V3 Lolin which can measure temperature, air pressure, air humidity, altitude, light intensity in various places remotely. Furthermore, the design that was validated using expert judgment approach (by learning strategists, physicists, and teachers) was tested on a small group of students in the fifth grade. The USE questionnaire was used to measure student responses. This questionnaire contains four aspects, i.e., usefulness, ease of use, ease of learning, and satisfaction aspects. Based on the finding, this learning design has a potential opportunity for improving student engagement.

Forecasting technology trends using text mining of the gaps between science and technology: The case of perovskite solar cell technology

How to detect and identify the future trends of emerging technologies as early as possible is crucial for government R&D strategic planning and enterprises' practices. To avoid the weakness of using only scientific papers or patents to study the development trends of emerging technologies, this paper proposes a framework that uses scientific papers and patents as data resources and integrates the text mining and expert judgment approaches to identify technology evolution paths and forecast technology development trends within the short term. The perovskite solar cell technology is selected as a case study. In this case, the text mining and expert judgment methods are applied to analyze the technology evolution path, and gaps analysis between science and technology is used to forecast the technology development trend. This paper will contribute to the technology forecasting and foresight methodology, and will be of interest to solar photovoltaic technology R&D experts.