Expert Economists Research Articles

ЦІЛЬОВЕ ВИТРАЧАННЯ БЮДЖЕТНИХ КОШТІВ ЯК ОДНЕ З ОСНОВНИХ ЗАВДАНЬ СУДОВО-ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ ЕКСПЕРТИЗИ ДОКУМЕНТІВ ПРО ЕКОНОМІЧНУ ДІЯЛЬНІСТЬ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ Й ОРГАНІЗАЦІЙ

The article is devoted to the targeted expenditure of budgetary funds as one of the main tasks of forensic economic examination of documents on economic activities of enterprises and organizations. It is noted that the classic examples of misuse of budgetary funds are expenditures under the codes of economic classification of expenditures. The author provides four examples of new types of budgetary offenses committed by budgetary entities. The author also provides the measures of influence which may be applied to participants of the budget process for violations in terms of misuse of budget funds. The author provides a regulatory and legal interpretation of the term "misuse of budgetary funds" and substantiates the need to involve expert economists in criminal proceedings. The author analyzes the views of scholars and practitioners on the interpretation of the term "forensic economic examination of the misuse of budgetary funds". The author characterizes the objects of forensic economic examination of the misuse of budgetary funds, which means the information provided in the documents used in the process of budget execution, primary documents, accounting registers, financial and budgetary reporting of budget managers and recipients. The article provides a list of documents which may be subject to examination in the course of forensic economic examination with a view to identifying misuse of budgetary funds by officials. The article highlights the peculiarities of appointing a forensic economic examination on the issues of misuse of budgetary funds. The author summarizes the basic postulates on which the conduct of forensic economic examinations of misuse of budgetary funds is based. The essence of the methodology of forensic economic examination of the misuse of budgetary funds is indicated. The author makes a conclusion about the importance of the results obtained in conducting forensic economic examinations of the misuse of budgetary funds by their recipient, which is one of the sources of evidence in a trial.

Problematic Aspects of the Classification of Forensic Economic Examination

The theoretical-methodological foundations of the development of forensic economic examination regarding the determination of classification features of its species composition have not only theoretical-methodological, but also direct practical significance in the activities of expert economists, as well as judicial investigative bodies in the event that the latter appoint this type of examinations. This research paper’s purpose is to study the criteria for the classification of forensic economic examinations, established by soviet scientific thought, aimed at improving the systematization of their species composition. Using the techniques of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction and generalization, it was determined that the emergence of new types and sorts of forensic economic examinations depends on factors that can be combined into two groups: 1) socio-economic relations — a change of their format; 2) judicial and investigative practice —emergence of new objects of research and tasks; 3) economic offenses — new ways, techniques of committing economic crimes. It has been established that the structural differentiation of this type of forensic examinations is due to the procedural needs of the judicial and investigative practice. It has been found that the criterion for systematization of the species composition of forensic examinations belongs to the economic plane, namely to the distribution of social production into the spheres of material and immaterial production. The next stage of the distribution of economic examinations is to the relevant industries according to certain types of activity with the definition of the main criterion of classification — according to the type of production activity. Thanks to this, compliance with the set of requirements for the scientifically based selection of classification criteria with the distinction of sorts and types of economic examinations is ensured.

Economic and Legal Aspects of Reviewing the Conclusion and Questioning the Expert in Court

Based on the results of the analysis of the scientific literature, it is concluded that insufficient attention is paid to the assessment of the expert economist's conclusion. In this regard, the problem area of the study is considered taking into account the practice of conducting forensic economic examinations by experts of the ECC of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, non-state experts of St. Petersburg, as well as the practice of reviewing the conclusions of forensic experts from other regions of Russia. The purpose of the work is to study and develop methodological and practical recommendations for improving the assessment of expert opinions that reflect the results of the performed forensic economic examinations, for the presence of insufficient clarity or completeness, as well as in cases of doubts about the validity of the expert's conclusion or the presence of contradictions in the expert's conclusions. The main objectives of the study: review of the review of the expert opinion of the forensic expert; questions to the expert who performed the expert study for the court session. The solution of the research tasks that determine the achievement of the goal of this scientific work meets the requirements of consistency and contains an in-depth presentation of recommendations for evaluating the conclusions of expert economists, taking into account existing practice and positive experience in this area. The methodological basis of the research is based on general scientific methods of synthesis, analysis, induction, deduction, and the dialectical method of cognition of socio-economic phenomena. In the process of writing the work, private scientific methods were used: methods of comparative and formal-logical analysis. The result of the study-specific criteria for evaluating the expert-economist's conclusion within the framework of its review are formulated, directly related to the forensic economic expertise, and a list of typical violations identified within the framework of reviewing the expert-economist's conclusions is disclosed.

DEVELOPMENT OF FORENSIC ECONOMIC EXPERTISE IN THE CONDITIONS OF GLOBALIZATION OF ECONOMIC RELATIONS

Purpose. The aim of the article is the consideration of the functioning of forensic economic expertise in the conditions of globalization of economic relations and determination of priority directions for its development. Methodology of research. The theoretical and methodological basis of the research is the scientific works of expert economists, regulatory and legal acts. In the research process, the following general scientific methods were used: analysis and synthesis, generalization – to determine the conditions for the development of forensic economic expertise, which were formed under the influence of the globalization of economic relations; abstract and logical – for forming conclusions and proposals. Findings. The essence of financial and economic globalization, which is decisive among the types of globalization, the stages of its development, the processes of transformation of forensic economic expertise related to it, as well as economic violations that are carried out in the conditions of globalized economic relations and have a steady tendency to complication, and on which judicial and investigative bodies, if necessary, appoint forensic economic examinations. It is substantiated that the spread of international standards of forensic expert activity in the field of economics is limited by the action of objective endogenous factors (peculiarities of the economy, differentiation of the economic development of countries, property relations), which are key in solving this issue. Originality. The study of the development of forensic economic expertise in the conditions of the globalization of economic relations was further developed. Practical value. The proposed main endogenous influencing factors can be taken into account when harmonizing the principles of the development of forensic economic expertise with international requirements. Key words: globalization of economic relations, forensic economic expertise, transnational corporations, international economic integration, harmonization of legislation.

Introducing digitalization in forensic and economic expertise

The purpose of the study is to identify factors that affect the quality of forensic economic examination and to consider the ways to neutralize those using digital technologies. The subject of the study is the application of digital technologies to the work of an expert economist. The research methods were the analysis of scientific literature and judicial practice of Russian and foreign researchers, analysis of websites of expert institutions, comparison of expert activities, data aggregation, classification of types and methods of forensic economic examination, description of the expert's activities. The article presents the types and objects of forensic economic examinations in accordance with current regulatory legal acts. The developments in forensic economic examinations are considered. The potential for introducing modern end-to-end digital technologies into the work of expert economists is analyzed and seven components of technological progress in the field identified. The factors influencing the quality of the forensic economic examination are identified. The measures to minimize and neutralize the threats to expert activity in the context of digitalization are proposed.

Keynes and Knight on uncertainty: peas in a pod or chalk and cheese?

Abstract For many years, the ideas of Knight and Keynes have been widely understood to overlap greatly and they are presumed to have developed notions of uncertainty that deeply intersect, both describing a state where outcomes have non-probabilistic likelihoods. Furthermore, even their political philosophies are historically somewhat homogenised, both considered ‘liberals’. We critically review the historical records and writings of these key scholars with the purpose of dehomogenising their political philosophies, scientific epistemologies and their famous works on uncertainty, published in the same year—1921. We show that neither Keynes nor Knight has been considered fairly by history. Keynes, far from a liberal, was a political socialist who supposed that economic futures could be predicted rationally via deduced probabilities (in an abstract sense) and concluded that expert economists could and should engage in economic planning. Knight, in stark contrast, was something of a radical liberal, holding uncertainty and paradox to be the permeating fact of human existence, which implied, for Knight, significant political and economic complexities far beyond any planner. In short, Knight and Keynes held to radically different philosophic assumptions and, consequently, derived distinctive theories of uncertainty, much further apart than previously supposed. By more fully and accurately placing their ideas within the context of their ideological priors, we gain a stronger sense of how they truly understood the mechanics of economies.

Inducing feelings of ignorance makes people more receptive to expert (economist) opinion

AbstractWhile they usually should, people do not revise their beliefs more to expert (economist) opinion than to lay opinion. The present research sought to better understand the factors that make it more likely for an individual to change their mind when faced with the opinions of expert economists versus the general public. Across five studies we examined the role that overestimation of knowledge plays in this behavior. We replicated the finding that people fail to privilege the opinion of experts over the public across two different (Study 1) and five different (Study 5) economic issues. We further find that undermining an illusion of both topic-relevant (Studies 2–4) and -irrelevant knowledge (Studies 3 and 4) leads to greater normative belief revision in response to expert rather than lay opinion. We suggest one reason that people fail to revise their beliefs more in response to experts is because people think they know more than they really do.

THE USE OF ANALYTICAL METHODS FOR IDENTIFICATION OF ILLICITLY ACQUIRED FUNDS OF INDIVIDUALS

The article deals with scientific and practical methods for identifying funds of criminal origin of individuals – a method of analyzing net worth, calculating cash flow and calculating cost coverage. There are given examples of expert practice on identifying illicitly acquired funds by individuals in Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine and Armenia. A critical analysis of the three considered methods for identifying funds of criminal origin did not reveal discrepancies with accounting theory. The authors Розділ 6. Судова економічна експертиза 557 noted that the applied comparison methods in forensic examinations of Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine and Armenia are essentially similar, which does not prohibit their use in court proceedings. The identified problem with the application of the methods is the lack of recorded data at the beginning of the analyzed period and the limitation of the authority of an expert to collect information. The authors identified possible official available data sources in their countries. The existing international practice, the expanded ability to obtain information and the potential of expert economists can make a significant contribution to the implementation of analytical methods of evidence to identify illicitly acquired funds of individuals.

Are economists Kings? Economic evidence and discretionary assessments at the UK utility regulatory agencies

Abstract UK sectoral regulatory authorities are hybrid communities of, among others, lawyers and economists. Since the liberalization of essential services, expert economists enjoy broad discretionary powers in advancing the agencies’ broad statutory objectives. Yet, despite the significant societal impact of economic regulation, existing scholarship in the fields of competition law and regulation and public law has, with very few exceptions, disregarded these actors and the very essence of their work. This article aims to address this gap in the literature by blending theoretical with empirical insights deriving from 14 semi-structured elite interviews with regulatory economists in the regulatory agencies for energy (Office for Gas and Electricity Markets), telecoms (Office for Communications), and water (Office of Water Services). It explores the increased reliance on economics in the regulatory decision-making process and the impact this has had on the authorities’ decision-making and discretion, when making complex trade-offs between the various goals of the regulatory enterprise. In doing so, it puts forward a theoretical framework inspired by Craig Parsons’ typology of political action so as to identify and examine the nature and scope of the constraints that inform and shape the influence of economics in the exercise of regulatory discretion. This endeavour is significant in the sense that it is the first of its kind and, in that it provides a normative framework of analysis that can be applied in other areas of regulation heavily infused with and influenced by economic evidence and analysis, such as ‘pure’ competition law enforcement by both sectoral and competition authorities.

Conducting judicial economic expertise related to bringing bankruptcy entities

Purpose. The aim of the article is consideration and improvement of methodical techniques of forensic economic expertise in conducting research on the signs of bringing economic entities into bankruptcy. Methodology of research. The theoretical and methodological basis of the research is the scientific works of expert economists, legislative and regulatory acts. The following general scientific methods are used in the course of the study: analysis and synthesis, generalization – to determine the signs of bringing economic entities to a stable state of financial insolvency; abstract and logical – to form conclusions and suggestions. In addition to general research methods, special methods are also used: economic and mathematical modelling – to substantiate methodical techniques in the analysis of signs of bringing economic entities into bankruptcy. Findings. The essence and signs of bringing economic entities to sustainable financial insolvency, which is carried out by various veiled methods and schemes in their financial and economic activity, are considered. The use of this type of judicial economic expertise in the analytical component of the indicators characterizing the dynamics of fixed assets and long-term receivables, which is reflected in the balance sheets of the debtor enterprise, is substantiated. Originality. There has been further development of a study of methodological techniques for analysing the features of bankruptcy of economic entities. Practical value. The proposed methodological techniques can be used to improve the analysis of the signs of bankruptcy in court expert activity, as well as enterprises of different forms of ownership and management to take preventive measures, increase the efficiency of their activities. Key words: bankruptcy; bringing to bankruptcy; insolvency; debtor; accounts receivable; liquidity; financial status.

Does merger enforcement depend on the portion of the merger associated with the competitive concerns?

Most mergers involve multiple markets. The potential for settlement can vary by the fraction of the overall deal attributable to the markets of concern. (i.e., by the “overlap”). If an antitrust agency challenges a merger having only a small overlap, negotiating a settlement is very likely; but if the entire transaction is at issue, a challenge decision often leads to litigation. Regulators, antitrust attorneys, and expert economists have long wondered if the degree of overlap influences upon the agency’s challenge decision, because settlement and litigation impose disparate costs (including litigation risks and time-delays) on the agency and firms. Given over 20 years of experience with modern merger analysis, it is possible to address this question with several empirical models: (1) a two-stage estimation of the settle-challenge process, (2) decomposition analyses focused on matters exhibiting either high or low overlaps, and (3) statistical matching analyses. These models predict differences of 13 to 19 percentage points between the challenge probabilities of mergers exhibiting high and low overlaps. The difference suggests the potential for over- or under-enforcement. Comparing the FTC policy to that of the court quantifies this potential. The exact magnitude depends on the assumptions used to interpret the evidence. One set of assumptions suggests less enforcement when the overlap is high, while another set of assumptions predicts more enforcement when the overlap is low.

Does Merger Enforcement Depend on the Portion of the Merger Associated with the Competitive Concerns?

Most mergers involve multiple markets. The potential for settlement can vary by the fraction of the overall deal attributable to the markets of concern. (i.e., by the “overlap”). If an antitrust agency challenges a merger having only a small overlap, negotiating a settlement is very likely; but if the entire transaction is at issue, a challenge decision often leads to litigation. Regulators, antitrust attorneys, and expert economists have long wondered if the degree of overlap influences upon the agency’s challenge decision, because settlement and litigation impose disparate costs (including litigation risks and time-delays) on the agency and firms. Given over 20 years of experience with modern merger analysis, it is possible to address this question with several empirical models: (1) a two-stage estimation of the settle-challenge process, (2) decomposition analyses focused on matters exhibiting either high or low overlaps, and (3) statistical matching analyses. These models predict differences of 13 to 19 percentage points between the challenge probabilities of mergers exhibiting high and low overlaps. The difference suggests the potential for over- or under-enforcement. Comparing the FTC policy to that of the court quantifies this potential. The exact magnitude depends on the assumptions used to interpret the evidence. One set of assumptions suggests less enforcement when the overlap is high, while another set of assumptions predicts more enforcement when the overlap is low.

A blind expert test of contrarian claims about climate data

Although virtually all experts agree that CO2 emissions are causing anthropogenic global warming, public discourse is replete with contrarian claims that either deny that global warming is happening or dispute a human influence. Although the rejection of climate science is known to be driven by ideological, psychological, and political factors rather than scientific disagreement, contrarian views have considerable prominence in the media. A better understanding of contrarian discourse is therefore called for. We report a blind expert test of contrarian claims about climatological variables. Expert economists and statisticians were presented with representative contrarian statements (e.g., “Arctic ice is recovering”) translated into an economic or demographic context. In that blind test, contrarian claims were found to be misleading. By contrast, mainstream scientific interpretations of the data were judged to be accurate and policy relevant. The results imply that media inclusion of contrarian statements may increase bias rather than balance.

TOWARDS SOUND MONETARY INSTITUTIONS

Most people see money and central banking as shrouded by an impenetrable veil of mystery, as matters that ought to be delegated to expert economists in central banks. Yet the actual performance of central banks has been less than stellar. And there are good reasons to expect unchecked, discretionary monetary policy by central bankers to produce less-than-perfect results. Not only do central bankers not have the right incentives and knowledge to make beneficial discretionary decisions, but the economy does not always behave in a predictable fashion, reacting as an automaton to discretionary policy shifts. A market-based monetary arrangement – such as Friedrich von Hayek's free banking proposal – would be preferable to a national or supranational monopoly on the issue of money. If such an arrangement is not attainable, then it is desirable, at the very least, that the behaviour of central bankers is constrained by rules, such as nominal income growth targets.

On economists and garbagemen: Reflections on Šťastný (2010)

In his book on the economics of the economic profession, Sťastný (2010) provides a valuable service not only to professional economists, but also to the broader public who ought to be aware of the incentive structure of economic research and therefore cautious of accepting the advice of expert economists. In his book, Sťastný makes two broad claims, or two series of claims. The first revolves around the disconnect that exists between economists’ policy prescriptions and reality. In spite of the consensual views of economists on subjects like trade protectionism, rent controls, or agricultural subsidies, these demonstrably harmful policies remain in place, and sometimes even enjoy popular support. Hence the frustration experienced by many economists who were lured into economics with the ambition of changing, reforming, and improving the world. The second series of claims tries to account for the peculiar interaction between the supply and demand for economic ideas. Sťastný claims that the growing irrelevance of economists in shaping public policy has led them to embark on less and less salient lines of inquiry and to indulge in solving obscure mathematical problems instead of addressing empirically relevant questions and being a significant voice in public debates. Worse yet, professional economists have abandoned their original vocation and, instead of speaking truth to the powerful, they have started to accommodate the politicians’ demand for a ‘scientific’ and ‘scholarly’ justification of their actions. As a result, Sťastný argues, economists have become less socially useful than garbagemen. Our ambition is not to denounce individual economists or economists as a group— and neither is that Sťastný’s ambition. What we wish to subject to critical scrutiny, Rev Austrian Econ (2012) 25:173–183 DOI 10.1007/s11138-011-0160-6

Comparative boundary work: US acid rain and global climate change policy deliberations

Boundary work between science and politics in US acid rain and climate change congressional hearings is compared. In the acid rain case, boundaries were flexibly drawn between science and politics as expert scientists tailored their expertise to appear both objective and useful. In climate change hearings during the 1990s, there were fewer examples of direct boundary work. Three explanations are presented: expert scientists and economists drew on knowledge claims from a boundary organization; they drew on a discourse that combined economic growth and environmental protection in more politically acceptable ways; and they developed more sophistication in merging science and politics in hybrid forms. However, these three developments proved to be not completely stable, leading to further boundary work that discursively established a safe scientific domain away from the hearings. Copyright , Beech Tree Publishing.

What's economics worth?: valuing policy research

In an era of limited research resources and limitless research needs, demonstrating the worth of any research discipline to policymakers and administrators is a prerequisite for obtaining future funding and making an impact in policy matters. Economists have worked diligently in developing both quantitative and qualitative indicators of the value of science and technology R & D. At the same time, they have paid little or no attention to valuing their own work. In What's Economics Worth? Valuing Policy Research, several expert economists take an important first step towards redressing this imbalance. Anyone who wants to understand what economists do and how to think about valuing their work will find this book intriguing and worthwhile. Contributors: Jeffrey Alwang, Connie Chan-Kang, John Freebairn, Bruce Gardner, Arnold Harberger, Amir Heiman, Anne Krueger, Paul Krugman, Bob Lindner, George Norton, Philip G. Pardey, James Ryan, Vincent H. Smith, C. Peter Timmer, and David Zilberman

Simultaneous Equations in Antidumping Investigations

Abstract No abstract available.

INVEX: Investment Advisory Expert System

Abstract: Capital investment is a very important business decision, because it is largely irreversible and usually long‐term. We believe that the use of expert systems as a decision aid for interactive investment decision‐making offers several advantages to an unassisted human decision‐maker, or even to the human/conventional‐DSS combination. For example, the expert system could capture valuable information about so called ‘hard data’, and about the attitude towards some drastic changes in the environment, that are not easy to include in any quantitative method. However, if one expert can play a very important role in the decision‐making process, perhaps different experts can be even more valuable, bringing different approaches and somewhat different sets of information to a decision‐making situation. Our multiparadigm blackboard framework, called BEST (Blackboard‐based Expert Systems Toolkit), allows its user to combine knowledge coming from different experts, and to use different methods/paradigms to capture that knowledge, according to the type of partial problem at hand where each knowledge source is a single paradigm program. In investment decision‐making, judgmental investment ranking and selection from expert economists, embedded in a rule‐based knowledge source, might be combined with decisions from operational research methods (embedded in a knowledge source that fully respects multicriteria optimization paradigm) and from risk analysis method (embedded in a conventional, procedural knowledge source). When the decisions being combined come from different types of knowledge sources, redundancy is likely to be reduced and the combined decision is likely to be more objective.

Kennis En Inferenties Bij Het Lezen Van Tekst

When readers understand a text they construct a mental representation of the text. This text representation contains not only the information that is explicitly expressed in the text, but also information that is inferred by the readers during reading. A text representation can be described in terms of relations between the elements in the representation, but also in terms of relations of the representation with (a model of) the world. For example, readers can determine whether a particular sentence is logically consistent with the text, as well as whether it is true or false, whether it is plausible or possible, or whether it is completely new for her or him. The distinction between relations within the structure of the text representation and relations that refer to the world has hardly ever been made in empirical research on inferences. In general inferences have been investigated from the point of view of their contribution to the coherence of the representation. The consequence is that the question whether inferences are made during reading has generally been answered in terms of the internal coherence of the representation: Inferences that contribute to the coherence of the representation are made during reading, other inferences are not. The central question in the present research is to what extent inference processes are determined by the relations of the inferences with a model of the world and, accordingly, to what extent inference processes are determined by the reader's knowledge of the world. Experiments are discussed on inferences that contribute to the coherence of the representation and, accordingly, are supposed to be made during reading. In this research the knowledge of the reader with respect to the topic of the text was varied by having expert economists and non-experts reading texts on economics. The results indicate that the prevalent conclusion with respect to inferences is an overgeneralisation. It was demonstrated that inference processes are controlled by the reader's knowledge.