Electricity Generation Expansion Research Articles

Multi-objective electricity generation expansion planning towards renewable energy policy objectives under uncertainties

Conventional petrol vehicles emit a substantial quantity of greenhouse gases, leading to increasingly serious global warming problems. The expansion and development of renewable power generation technologies is conducive in promoting the use of electric vehicles, which are more environmentally friendly. This paper proposes a multi-objective power expansion model considering renewable energy policy objectives. The model regards the problem as a multi-period optimisation task, taking the newly installed capacity and the power generation capacity of each power generation technology as decision variables, and simulating the uncertain factors in the planning process using Geometric Brownian Motion and Monte Carlo approaches. The optimisation objective of the model is to minimise expected costs, reduce risk and environmental impacts, and incorporate changing policy objectives into the constraints to meet policy makers’ expectations for renewable energy development. Then, a decentralised target search-based multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is proposed to solve the model. Its effectiveness is verified by a numerical example using real data from the Chinese power system. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm exhibits improved performance compared with benchmark algorithms and provides high quality and diverse Pareto-optimal solutions to decision makers. Finally, the optimal plans for power expansion and generation mix under different preferences and policy objectives are discussed and corresponding recommendations are made.

Evaluating the Impact of Renewable Energy Policy Instruments on Capacity Expansion: Insights from the Visegrad Group Countries

Renewable energy technologies have reached a pivotal point, demonstrating cost competitiveness with traditional energy sources and a continuing trend of affordability. Nevertheless, the successful deployment of renewable energy capacity crucially depends on the efficacy of renewable energy policy tools, casting a veil of uncertainty over their actual influence on the expansion of renewable electricity generation. This research delves into the array of policy instruments designed to bolster renewable energy capacity. Employing an econometric analysis, this study meticulously examines these policy tools, with a particular emphasis on feed-in tariffs, quotas, tenders, and tax incentives, seeking to facilitate the adoption of renewable energy within the Visegrad group countries, comprising the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. Drawing from a comprehensive panel dataset spanning the years from 1990 to 2020, our findings unveil a nuanced perspective on the effectiveness of these renewable energy policy tools. Notably, our results underscore the varying degrees of success among different policy instruments, all of which significantly contribute to the advancement of renewable energy sources. A key revelation arises from the limited impact of quotas, a frequently employed regulatory measure, in stimulating the expansion of renewable electricity generation capacity. In contrast, feed-in tariffs, tenders, and tax incentives emerge as potent drivers in achieving this pivotal objective. This research sheds light on the dynamic landscape of renewable energy policy instruments, offering valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders engaged in advancing sustainable and resilient energy ecosystems in the Visegrad group countries and beyond.

On the future relevance of green hydrogen in Europe

Hydrogen is among the energy carriers, which are most often considered for bringing about a sustainable energy system. Yet, so far, hydrogen has not delivered as an energy carrier. The core objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the state-of-the-art and the future prospects of green hydrogen in the European energy system from economic, energetic and CO2 emissions point-of-view. The analysis shows that there are some increasing opportunities for hydrogen use in industry and in the transport sector, when electrification is not possible or is too expensive, as well as a storage in the European electricity system. However, a hydrogen-based energy system will remain a vision at least over the next decades. The major reason for this is the unfavorable economics mostly due to high investment costs in the whole supply chain. In addition, the overall efficiencies in the hydrogen chains are moderate in general. The full environmental benignity of hydrogen as an energy carrier is only provided when renewable energy sources are used for hydrogen production. However, in Europe, the potentials for green hydrogen are very limited due to the insufficient expansion of renewable electricity generation. For this reason, many European countries are considering options for green hydrogen import. The future of hydrogen is highly dependent on the supporting policy framework. To reduce the risk in the investment in hydrogen infrastructure, as well as to justify the promotion of green hydrogen, it is very important that Europe works out a very clear and realistic long-term implementation strategy.

Modernization of governance at Chinese universities: Role of fossil fuels and green energy resource

By choosing the top 10 Chinese universities, the associations between university governance, the sustainability level of the university, and sustainable power generation are analyzed from 1999 to 2021. The results from the continuously updated, fully modified method confirmed that with a 1% improvement in the sustainability level index, the governance of universities would improve by 0.33%. The inflow of foreign direct investment to the district where the university is located will reduce the level of effectiveness of the governance. The expansion of sustainable electricity generation positively affects the governance level. A 1% increase in the number of students causes a decrease in the governance performance of Chinese universities by 0.08%. Carbon dioxide emission has no significant effect on the universities' governance level. The primary recommended practical policies are developing the participation of universities in green financing markets, boosting green FDI, and improving education for sustainable development (ESD).

Green energy carriers and energy sovereignty in a climate neutral European energy system

Meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement poses significant challenges to provide renewable energy for the power, heating, transport, and industrial sector. Both green hydrogen and methane are considered key energy carriers for reaching these climate targets. However, future needs for an effective infrastructure deployment are highly uncertain, particularly concerning the timely and substantial expansion of renewable electricity generation in Europe. To better understand the trade-offs between domestic production and large-scale energy imports and their corresponding infrastructures needs, we use the energy system optimisation model REMix. We consider different strategic European story lines and constraints on expansion of pipelines and power grids to identify robust capacity targets from a cost optimal perspective. The results indicate that European energy sovereignty is feasible but comes at around 3% higher cost compared to stronger cooperation with resource-rich areas such as the British Isles or the Maghreb region. In contrast, preventing any network expansion lead to an increase of up to 15%. With regard to the extensive adaptations of energy infrastructures required to achieve the emission reduction goal, the timely and substantial expansion of electricity generation from renewable sources in particular is to be regarded as crucial.

A Review on the Internalization of Externalities in Electricity Generation Expansion Planning

This work addresses the internalization of externalities in energy decision making and in generation expansion planning (GEP). Although the linkage between externalities and energy is well recognized, the issue of the internalization in GEP models and from a sustainability perspective is still far from being fully explored. A critical literature review is presented, including scientific articles published in the period from 2011 to 2021 and selected from scientific databases according to a set of pre-defined keywords. The literature is vast and quite heterogeneous in the models and methods used to deal with these externalities, and therefore a categorization of these studies was attempted. This categorization was based on the methods used, the geographical scope, the externalities included in the planning model and the strategies for their inclusion. As a result, it was possible to perceive that most studies tend to focus on the internalization of externalities related to CO2 and equivalent emissions from a national perspective. Departing from the critical analysis, pathways for future research were presented, highlighting the need to improve the internalization of social externalities to overcome environmental and economic bias, and also highlighting the importance of recognizing regional specificities and development priorities.

Gas price caps and electricity production effects in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian War: modeling and new policy reforms

AbstractThe merit-order approach in the electricity market, which is in widespread use across the EU27 and the UK, has proven to be somewhat economically problematic in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian War. The massively increased gas prices since summer 2022—in the context of Russian supply cuts to the EU—has led to an abnormally high electricity price. Using the merit order approach, the price of electricity increases enormously if, as is often the case, gas is the last type of energy still realized in power generation; this leads to artificial increases in returns for all other types of energy providers whose output is used in power generation. Gas price increases by Russia or Russian supply cuts to the EU can increase the price of electricity and also the rate of inflation, as well as depress real income. The electricity price shock can be countered by switching—temporarily—to a modified regulation of the electricity market for a few years with a gas price subsidy in the electricity market. In a macroeconomic analysis, we identify both the output losses and adverse distributional effects of a gas price hike and find that a gas price subsidy is superior in stabilizing output and employment compared to a transfer; it also at least partially addresses certain distributional issues by reducing windfall profits in the electricity market. The study advocates a combination of gas price subsidies only in the electricity market and targeted transfers to households to meet both efficiency and distributional targets. The macro-analysis findings presented herein should be considered carefully, as they could minimize the welfare losses in the EU and the UK. As regards the expansion of renewable energy-based electricity, it is shown herein that the cost-differential between gas-fired power stations and renewable electricity is critical—large cost differentials imply barriers for the expansion of electricity generation from renewables unless there is a price regulation of electricity. There is the potential for an inefficient adjustment path due to nonlinearities. With a proposed narrow gas price cap for the electricity market only, the associated initial deficit related to necessary subsidies is, of course, much smaller than in the case of a general gas price cap.

Optimal scheduling of Egyptian grid with pumped storage hydroelectric power plant

Egypt's national development plan aims at diversifying energy resources and expanding on renewable energy generation technologies. However, the Egyptian national grid needs energy-storage components to stabilize its power supply when coupled with renewable energy due to the intermittent and random nature of them. The optimal power expansion plan has been reached using a production and costing software package electric generation expansion analysis system (EGEAS). Although pumped storage hydroelectric power plants (PSHPPs) have potential to be constructed in Attaqa Mountain, Egypt, it has not been considered in Egypt's optimal power expansion plan. This study proposes an optimal scheduling of Egypt's grid, adding PSHPP as a committed power plant. First, a mathematic formulation of Attaqa PSHPP is presented. Then, to reach the goal of economic dispatch, an optimal scheduling model of national grid is established with the consideration of both respective operation constraints and load requirements. The results of EGEAS simulation module showed that PSHPP operation for 20 years achieves a net fuel cost saving of 795 M$ as calculated from with and without PSHPP conditions at domestic subsidized fuel prices. More than double of this saving, 7778 M$, could be achieved if the net fuel cost savings are calculated at international fuel prices.

Sustainability Assessment of Electricity Generation Development under the Implementation of Support Policies with Endogenous Financial Resources Using a Hybrid Decision Support Model

Sustainable electricity development is one of the requirements for achieving sustainable development in global communities. However, due to barriers, especially in less developed countries, there is little incentive to invest in the development of sustainable electricity technologies. Therefore, there should be a change in market mechanisms, and broad support policies have to be implemented for the sustainable development of electricity. In the long run, these policies must lead to the sustainable development of energy systems. To evaluate the efficiency and effects of the proposed support policies on the sustainability of electricity generation development, this study intends to analyze the multiple and complex dimensions of the problem using a hybrid decision support model. Moreover, by defining an indicator to assess the electricity generation expansion sustainability, this study assists policymakers in making logical decisions about sustainable support programs for the electricity development based on the characteristics of the electricity market of each country. Despite uncertainties in the electricity market, simulations show that the results of this hybrid model have approximately 88% conformance with historical data. Consequently, the model can evaluate the sustainability of the system under the implementation of the proposed support programs and compare them to select the most effective one. The results show that by assuming a competitive market and rational behavior and implementing support programs with endogenous financial resources, the installed renewable capacity can be improved by up to 70.4% compared with the direct subsidy policies. Regardless of the financial burden of policies (e.g., direct subsidies) and the possibility of facing a budget deficit, these programs can be up to 79.2% more effective in the sustainability of the energy system compared with the direct subsidy policy.

Assessment of flexibility needs and options for a 100% renewable electricity system by 2030 in Austria

In June 2018, an ambitious target has been set in Austria for the domestic expansion of electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES) by the Austrian Climate and Energy Strategy: The goal is to cover the total national electricity consumption, measured by yearly balance, with RES. With this goal, the country's power system is facing a significant transformation. Not only the necessary expansion rate of RES, but also safeguarding system stability, and preserving security of supply are major challenges that need to be tackled in the coming years. A high share of electricity generation from hydro, wind and PV is expected to lead to considerable, weather-related fluctuations in power supply. System flexibility is required to compensate short-to long-term (seasonal) differences between generation and consumption. This paper aims for assessing short-to long-term flexibility needs of the Austrian electricity system by 2030, which is intended to rely, almost exclusively, on RES and the use of flexibility options for meeting those needs. For this purpose, a high-resolution power and district heating model is used for the calculation of two distinct scenarios. Flexibility needs and coverage are quantified for these scenarios for different timescales, namely: daily, weekly, monthly and annually.

Assessment of decarbonization alternatives for passenger transportation in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

This paper applies an energy systems model to evaluate how shared mobility (ride-hailing and shared autonomous vehicles), public buses, alternative energy sources (electricity and biofuels) and carbon pricing contribute to reduce passenger vehicles CO2 emissions in Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, from 2016 to 2050. Public buses and carpooled shared mobility increase system capacity, resulting in lower vehicle ownership, energy demand and CO2 emissions, as well as savings per ton of CO2 abated (from $3 to $4186). Biofuels reduce CO2 emissions at no increased system cost, while carbon pricing is the most effective policy to reduce CO2 emissions, but it is costlier than the alternatives and results in greater private vehicle use (up to 260%) if the expansion of zero-carbon public transportation remains limited due to technology adoption. The policy that reduces the most emissions (by 84%) combines the expansion of renewable electricity generation and implementation of a CO2 price.

Application of Metaheuristic Algorithms for Solving Real-World Electricity Demand Forecasting and Generation Expansion Planning Problems

Application of Metaheuristic Algorithms for Solving Real-World Electricity Demand Forecasting and Generation Expansion Planning Problems

The integration of bio-catalysis and electrocatalysis to produce fuels and chemicals from carbon dioxide.

The dependence on fossil fuels has caused excessive emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), leading to climate changes and global warming. Even though the expansion of electricity generation will enable a wider use of electric vehicles, biotechnology represents an attractive route for producing high-density liquid transportation fuels that can reduce GHG emissions from jets, long-haul trucks and ships. Furthermore, to achieve immediate alleviation of the current environmental situation, besides reducing carbon footprint it is urgent to develop technologies that transform atmospheric CO2 into fossil fuel replacements. The integration of bio-catalysis and electrocatalysis (bio-electrocatalysis) provides such a promising avenue to convert CO2 into fuels and chemicals with high-chain lengths. Following an overview of different mechanisms that can be used for CO2 fixation, we will discuss crucial factors for electrocatalysis with a special highlight on the improvement of electron-transfer kinetics, multi-dimensional electrocatalysts and their hybrids, electrolyser configurations, and the integration of electrocatalysis and bio-catalysis. Finally, we prospect key advantages and challenges of bio-electrocatalysis, and end with a discussion of future research directions.

On the Role of Renewable Energy Policies and Electric Vehicle Deployment Incentives for a Greener Sector Coupling

Various incentives are introduced for the expansion of electric vehicle fleets and electricity generation from renewable energy resources. Although many researchers studied the effect of these policies on the related sector, there is no study investigating the indirect effect of renewable energy incentives on the deployment of electric vehicles or the indirect effect of electric vehicle adoption policies on the long-term integration of renewable energy resources. The main contribution of this paper is to analyze the impact of the specific incentives on both deployment of electric vehicles in the transportation system and investment in capacity generation in the electricity market. For this purpose, a new framework was designed to analyze the effect of policies on the electric vehicle deployment and development of DC charging stations based on the system dynamics approach. Then, this framework was combined with the existing dynamic models of the electricity market to study the interaction and behavior of both coupled systems from the policymakers’ perspective. The effect of policies implementation was interpreted in a mathematical framework and the Net Present Value method was used for assessing the investment in charging infrastructures. Simulation results of a case study in the United States and sensitivity analysis illustrate that increasing the wind capacity incentives accelerated the electrification of the transportation system and increasing the incentives for electrification of transportation system influences wind capacity positively. Moreover, the sensitivity of the electric vehicle adoption to gas price is more than the sensitivity of the wind capacity penetration to gas price.

Multi-objective centralization-decentralization trade-off analysis for multi-source renewable electricity generation expansion planning: A case study of Iran

Countries need robust long-term plans to keep up with the global pace of transitioning from pollutant fossil fuels towards clean, renewable energies. Renewable energy generation expansion plans can be either centralized, decentralized, or a combination of these two. This paper presents a novel approach to obtain an optimal multi-period plan for generating each type of renewable energy (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and biomass) via multi-objective mathematical modeling. The proposed model has integrated with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) econometric method to forecast the country’s demand during the planning horizon. The optimal energy mix based on several socio-economic aspects of renewable sources was obtained using the Passive and Active Compensability Multicriteria ANalysis (PACMAN) multi-attribute decision-making method. The model has been solved by a Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) metaheuristic algorithm. Each solution in the Pareto front contains a plan for each electricity generation region under a certain combination of centralization and decentralization strategies.

Future evolution of virtual water trading in the United States electricity sector

Future transformations in the electricity sector could entail major shifts in power sector technology mixes and electricity trade, with consequences for the trading of virtual water. Previous virtual water trade studies largely focus on historical timeframes. We explore, for the first time, future—through 2050—virtual water trade driven by electricity trade under a range of future electricity sector transformation scenarios using the United States as an example. Under a business-as-usual scenario, virtual water trading in 2050 decreases by 3% relative to 2015 levels. By contrast, virtual water trading increases respectively by 3%, 26%, and 32%, in scenarios characterized by higher socioeconomic growth, higher potential for transmission expansion, and low-carbon transitions. These increases are driven by electricity generation expansion in the western U.S., resulting in higher virtual water trade to the east. In addition, we find that as electricity generation shifts west, an increased amount of nonrenewable groundwater will be consumed to generate electricity that is supplied to the east. Independent of scenario, the US electricity grid largely relies on virtual water exports from only a few states. Our study highlights the need for integrated and national strategies to manage the water and electric systems.

Energy Source Expansion Planning for a Real-world Deregulated Electric Utility Considering Emission

The Electricity Demand Prediction (EDP) and Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) make a real-world planning problem more optimal. In this study, the EDP problem has been solved using the optimization techniques such as Differential Evolution (DE), Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Artificial Immune System (AIS) for Tamil Nadu state, India. The electricity demand has been predicted and validated in terms of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results reveal that DE outperformed other algorithms in solving the EDP problem. Continually, the GEP problem under partial deregulated environmental has been solved using the DE. In the GEP model, utilities and Independent Power Producer (IPP) have acted as the generating sources where IPP sells the power to utilities and utilities sell the power to the consumers. The utilities have been modeled to ensure the profit of all IPP, fuel mix ratio, system security, reliability, etc. The problem has been solved for the 6-year (till 2024) and 12-year (till 2030) planning horizons by considering three different scenarios, such as (i) without budget constraint of utilities, (ii) with budget constraint of utilities and (iii) penetration of huge Renewable Energy Source (RES) with budget constraint of utilities. The expansion capacities of each power plants were estimated over the planning horizon by maximizing the profit to the generating sources. The values of reliability indices and CO2 emission have been obtained.

Sustainable renewable energy supply networks optimization – The gradual transition to a renewable energy system within the European Union by 2050

In order to achieve the goal of a carbon neutral EU by 2050 and meet the climate targets of the Paris Agreement, a sustainable, efficient, competitive and secure energy system needs to be developed. This paper presents the synthesis of sustainable renewable energy supply networks within the EU-27, proposing a stepwise energy transition in the transport and power sectors, achieving a carbon net neutral target by 2050. A multi-period mixed-integer programming model is developed, with the objective of maximizing sustainability net present value, considering different biomass and waste resources for the production of biofuels, renewable electricity, hydrogen, food and bioproducts, employing different types of technologies. The results show that, with further development of existing technologies, the goal of a carbon-neutral EU can be achieved without compromising food production. Wind farms have proven to be the most promising solution at present for the rapid expansion of electricity generation from renewable energy sources, while the importance of solar photovoltaics is increasing over the years, reaching the 43% share of electricity generation from RES in 2050. Moreover, the energy transition within the EU could have a significant positive impact on the economic, environmental and also social aspects of sustainability, with more than 1.5 million new job opportunities created across the EU over the next 30 years.

The role of 4th generation district heating (4GDH) in a highly electrified hydropower dominated energy system

District heating (DH) is considered an important component in a future highly renewable European energy system. With the turn towards developing 4th generation district heating (4GDH), the integral role of district heating in fully renewable energy systems is emphasized further. Norway is a country that is expected to play a significant role in the transition of the European energy system due to its high shares of flexible hydropower in the electricity sector. While the country is moving towards electrification in all sectors and higher shares of variable renewable electricity generation, district heating could potentially decrease the need for electric generation and grid capacity expansion and increase the flexibility of the system. In this paper we investigate the role of 4GDH in a highly electrified future Norwegian energy system. A highly electrified scenario for the Norwegian energy system is constructed based on a step-by-step approach, implementing measures towards electrification and expansion of renewable electricity generation. Then, a 4GDH scenario is constructed for the purpose of analysing the role of 4GDH in a highly electrified hydropower based energy system. EnergyPLAN is used for simulation. Results show that an expansion of 4GDH will increase the total system efficiency of the Norwegian energy system. However, the positive effects are only seen in relation to the introduction of efficiency measures such as heat savings, more efficient heating solutions and integration of low-temperature excess heat. Implementation of heat savings and highly efficient heat pumps in individual based heating systems show a similar effect, but does not allow for excess heat integration. In the modelled DH scenario, the introduction of large heat storages has no influence on the operation of the energy system, due to the logic behind the EnergyPLAN model and the national energy system analysis approach chosen, and thus the effect of implementing 4GDH may be underestimated.

Impact of high solar and wind penetrations and different reliability targets on dynamic operating reserves in electricity generation expansion planning

Wind and solar are increasingly cost-competitive as well as environmentally less harmful alternatives to the fossil-fuel generation that dominates most electricity industries. However, their highly variable and somewhat unpredictable output still requires high levels of dispatchable plants to ensure demand can be met at times of low renewables availability. While this capacity overhead has associated costs, it does offer potentially useful outcomes for dynamic operating reserves. We present a method for assessing these potential outcomes in electricity industry planning. We use an evolutionary programming-based capacity expansion model, NEMO, that solves least-cost generation mixes through full operational dispatch of candidate solutions, using high-temporal resolution demand and wind and solar profiles, over a year or more. We apply our method through a case study of the Java-Bali grid, considering future scenarios both with and without variable renewables, and under different carbon pricing scenarios, reliability targets, and minimum operating reserves requirements. Our study suggests that not only might high renewable penetrations reduce industry costs and emissions, their inclusion provides significantly higher operating reserves over most of the year, hence the ability to cover unexpected plant failures and other disruptions. Lower reliability targets reduce this capacity overhang but still see improved operating reserves.