Expansion Of Agricultural Areas Research Articles

Hydrological responses to historical and predicted land use/land cover changes in the Welmel watershed, Genale Dawa Basin, Ethiopia: Implications for water resource management

Study regionWelmel watershed, Genale-Dawa Basin, Ethiopia. Study focusThis study aimed to analyze the hydrological impacts of land use/land cover (LULC) changes in the Welmel watershed for 1990–2020 and to predict the LULC change impact on the hydrological status in the year 2050. The hybrid land use classification technique for classifying Landsat images; Cellular-Automata Markov (CA-Markov) for prediction of the 2035 and 2050 LULC; and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for hydrological modeling were employed in the analyses. New hydrological insights for the regionThe findings revealed that from 1990 to 2020, significant alterations in the hydrological regime occurred due to historical LULC changes in the Welmel watershed, which are expected to continue in the 2035 and 2050 periods. Forest cover loss and expansion of agricultural areas, which occurred from 1990 to 2020, have resulted in increased annual flow (6.18%), wet seasonal flow (10.21%), and surface runoff (25.32%), and reduced dry seasonal flow (6.34%), groundwater flow (17.17%, and evapotranspiration (0.36%). The 2035 and 2050 LULC indicate further increased annual flow, wet seasonal flow, and surface runoff, and reduced dry seasonal flow, groundwater flow, and evapotranspiration. The study also stated the hydrological impacts of the LULC changes at the sub-watershed scales. More noticeable changes in hydrological components have been observed at the sub-watershed scale, mainly associated with the uneven spatial distribution of LULC changes. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, water resource managers, and local communities in formulating strategies to enhance water resource management practices in the Welmel watershed and similar regions. It could also be for researchers and Academia who can be benefited and it can be used to supplement global goals like Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG 6): ensure the availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.

Defining Optimal Location of Constructed Wetlands in Vojvodina, Serbia

With the continuous trend of urbanization, increase in industrial capacities, and expansion of agricultural areas, there is also a rise in the amount of wastewater. One of the effective and economical solutions for wastewater treatment has proven to be Constructed Wetlands (CWs). Defining the locations where CWs can be built is not an easy task and there are several criteria that need to be considered. The Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis—Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) are combined to select CW locations. AHP is one of the most commonly used methods in many environmental decision making problems, involving various conflicting criteria. In this case, conflicts arise between the evaluation of criteria that influence the selection of CW locations. The evaluation of selected criteria and sub-criteria resulted in a suitability map indicating that the first class represents 44%, the second class 37%, and the third class 16% of the total area. The fourth and fifth classes represent 3% of the total area. The criteria with the highest significance are land use, floodplains and distance of the location from populated places. This study has important implications for sustainable wastewater management in Serbia and provides guidelines for selecting locations for CWs.

Pattern of Agricultural Progress in India’s North-East and the Contributing Factors: An Econometric Analysis

Despite being blessed with rich agro-climatic conditions, the largest agrarian state in India’s North-East, Assam recorded relatively poor agricultural growth, since independence. The question of agricultural performance in terms of use of factors and growth pattern always arise that seems to vary in different stages of policy shift. Agricultural diversity increased in the initial phase with the expansion of agricultural area but slowed down in the later stages. However, the nature of agricultural diversity and use of resources including land allocations reflects the adaptation of farming community, absorption of labour force and sustainability of earning of farmers. The objectives are to analyze: i) the pattern of agricultural growth, diversity; ii) relative contribution of crop diversification, yield and area towards output growth in the pre-Green Revolution, Green Revolution and Post-Reform period; iii) association of various factors with crop yields in the short run and the adjustment process in the long run. Using secondary data, semi-log linear and spline regression functions we examined the growth and stationarity of growth processes is checked by ADF test. Times series analyses like cointegration and ARDL bound testing approach has been followed to examine the relation of various factors with yield of various crops in the short and long run. The ECM also provides the process of adjustment and CUSUM(Q) test is used for checking fitness of the models. Changes in diversity are analyzed through Herfindahl Index and the additive decomposition technique is employed to examine changing contribution of growth of yield, area and cropping pattern and their interactions. The result reveals varied impacts of main weather variable (rainfall), technological factors and cropping intensity on the yields of crops in different phases since 1950-51. Area effect on output and cropping pattern growth though declined, yield growth contributed increasingly in successive sub-periods in Assam. However, the contribution of modern technology towards the growth has not been uniform in the three major stages of agricultural transformation in Assam.

Natural and human-induced ecosystem change in SE Europe since AD 1700 derived from a partially varved sediment record from Lake Vouliagmeni (Greece)

To reconstruct naturally and anthropogenically induced environmental change in SE Europe since the Little Ice Age, we have examined five partially varved sediment cores from coastal Lake Vouliagmeni, Greece. Our reconstructions are based on a multi-proxy approach including microfacies analysis, X-ray fluorescence core scanning, radionuclide dating (210Pb, 137Cs, and 241Am), and palynological analysis (pollen, spores, and dinoflagellate cysts). A 131 -cm-long composite record that encompasses the past c. 300 years reveals 181 varves of endogenic and mixed clastic-biogenic types. The formation of these varves was controlled by seasonal variability in clastic input and primary productivity. The non-varved intervals consist of homogenous lake sediments and turbidite deposits. Based on a chronology developed through radionuclide dating, varve counting and exclusion of turbidites from the sequence, we have compared our proxy data with meteorological data and historical records of earthquakes and human activities. Our results suggest that the surroundings of Lake Vouliagmeni experienced relatively wet conditions during the late solar Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD) and relatively dry conditions during the Dalton Minimum (1790–1830 AD), which highlights the hydroclimatic heterogeneity in SE Europe during the Little Ice Age. The evaluation of historical documentation suggests that the majority of the turbidites is related to lake-slope instabilities following earthquake shocks. Human impact on Lake Vouliagmeni includes (i) a change in aquatic biota following the artificial connection of the lake to the sea at c. 1880 AD, and (ii) expansion of agricultural areas and reduction of natural forests around the lake due to population growth over the past 300 years.

Verges as fragments of loess grasslands near Kondoros

Loess vegetations of the Carpathian Basin have been ploughed for a thousand years. Therefore, in Hungary, it is also important to find out the composition of loess vegetation. Therefore, loess steppes of verges of the Transdanubia have nearly disappeared.The extent of the loess bedrock and its vegetation were significant in the Pannonian area, but nowadays (Zólyomi, 1936, 1958; Zólyomi et al., 1997), they have been left in only fragments, mainly because of intensive agricultural activities and expansion of agricultural areas (Rákóczi and Barczi, 2014; Barczi et al., 2004a, b; Penksza et al., 2011; Deák et al., 2016a; Valkó et al., 2018). Therefore, the patches are very important, extending mainly over the central plain of the Pannonian area, but also spreading up to the foothills (Bíró et al., 2018; Penksza et al., 1994, 1996). Thus, several researchers have investigated these remnant vegetation patches in the central Carpathian Basin, Szerényi and Kalapos (2000), Csontos and Tamás (2007), Csontos et al., (2022). However, most of the studies were made in the Great Hungarian Plain, where the role of the Cumanian mounds was also significant from among the remnants. These patches of loess remnants are considered as hot spots for vegetation (Deák et al., 2016b, 2022; Dembicz et al., 2018, 2020). In addition, verges alongsideagricultural areas and roads, where the vegetation has been reduced, are also very important as relics of the former vegetation (Csathó, 2008, 2011; Szentes et al., 2022; Bajor et al., 2016).

Transformation archetypes in global food systems

Food systems are primary drivers of human and environmental health, but the understanding of their diverse and dynamic co-transformation remains limited. We use a data-driven approach to disentangle different development pathways of national food systems (i.e. ‘transformation archetypes’) based on historical, intertwined trends of food system structure (agricultural inputs and outputs and food trade), and social and environmental outcomes (malnutrition, biosphere integrity, and greenhouse gases emissions) for 161 countries, from 1995 to 2015. We found that whilst agricultural total factor productivity has consistently increased globally, a closer analysis suggests a typology of three transformation archetypes across countries: rapidly expansionist, expansionist, and consolidative. Expansionist and rapidly expansionist archetypes increased in agricultural area, synthetic fertilizer use, and gross agricultural output, which was accompanied by malnutrition, environmental pressures, and lasting socioeconomic disadvantages. The lowest rates of change in key structure metrics were found in the consolidative archetype. Across all transformation archetypes, agricultural greenhouse gases emissions, synthetic fertilizer use, and ecological footprint of consumption increased faster than the expansion of agricultural area, and obesity levels increased more rapidly than undernourishment decreased. The persistence of these unsustainable trajectories occurred independently of improvements in productivity. Our results underscore the importance of quantifying the multiple human and environmental dimensions of food systems transformations and can serve as a starting point to identify potential leverage points for sustainability transformations. More attention is thus warranted to alternative development pathways able of delivering equitable benefits to both productivity and to human and environmental health.

Germination ecology of cerejeira (Amburana acreana (Ducke) A. C. Sm.) seed as a function of temperature and photoperiod

The expansion of agricultural areas over the Amazon biome and illegal logging has caused a reduction in forest areas and the risk of extinction of several native species. Thus, cultivation in agroforestry or monoculture systems is essential for the economic and environmental sustainability of the sector. For this, it is necessary to understand the physiological parameters of seeds and establish protocols that help growers and nurseries during the seedling production phase. The objective of this work was to develop methods to evaluate the germination of Amburana acreana seeds at different temperatures and photoperiods. The seeds were submitted to germination tests, germination speed and average germination time at constant temperatures of 25 °C, 30 °C, 35 °C and 40 °C and two photoperiods, 12 and 24 hours of light. The temperature of 40°C inhibited germination. The germination process of A. acreana seeds is favored with a temperature of 30 °C under 24 h of light, promoting up to 100% germination.

ASSESSMENT OF MODERN LANDSCAPE POTENTIAL IN THE CASPIAN COASTAL PLAINS

Aim: In recent decades, high population growth rates have increased the impact on nature. The expansion of agricultural areas and the rapid appropriation of land require landscape assessment and systematic planning of nature management mechanisms. The main purpose of the study is to assess the natural landscape potential of the territory and propose measures that reflect the nature of the landscape and its regional and ecological significance. Methodology: The Caspian coastal plains of Azerbaijan, chosen as the study area, are distinguished by their sensitivity to anthropogenic impacts. In the evaluation process, the landscapes of the study area were categorized as weak, medium, and strong in terms of natural resource potential, productivity, and recreational potential. For determining the levels of sensitivity to technogenic impacts, landscapes were grouped according to the level of ecological tension into satisfactory, stressed, critical, and crisis levels and an expert assessment was carried out using a 100-point system. Results: According to the calculation, 54% of the coastal plains of the Caspian Sea that make up the study area are semi-arid landscapes, 14% are forests and meadows, 26% are dry steppes, and 5% are hydromorphic-intrazonal landscapes. During the assessment, it was revealed that landscapes with a low natural resource potential cover 42% of the area, landscapes with an average natural resource potential - 23%, and landscapes with a strong natural resource potential - 11%. Protected landscapes cover 24% of the study area. Evaluation of the sensitivity of landscapes to technogenic impacts showed that most of the territory (41%) is at a severe ecological level. Scientific novelty: The landscapes of the study area were evaluated in terms of natural resource potential and anthropogenic impacts. As a result, a system of measures for optimal management of landscape complexes was proposed taking into account the separated zones.

Changes in Land Use and Land Cover of Düzce Province (1990-2018)

In the present study, the land use and land cover (LU/LC) of Düzce province, belonging to the years 1990, 2000, and 2018, were examined in the Western Section of the Black Sea Region. According to the data that we have used from the CORINE database, 7 LU/LC classes were defined; artificial, agricultural, transitional vegetation, pasture, wetland, woodlands and other areas. In this context, the changes have been occurred in the area (km2 ) in LU/LC during the 28 years from 1990 to 2018 and discussed the reasons for these changes. Also, in the study, it was revealed on which lands the changes in LU/LC were concentrated using ArcGIS 10.4 and TerrSet programs. Attempts have been made to contribute to the sustainable and efficient use of the land by associating the changes in the LU/LC of Düzce province with soil-cover, land-use capability, climate, and population characteristics. It has been noticed that a significant part of the artificial areas, which are in continuous development, has expanded towards the agricultural lands. Also, it was determined that the area that LC/ LU expanded the most was agriculture, and the places where LC/LU decerased its area the most were forest areas. Therefore, we have revealed that the major reason for the negative change in the forest lands is the expansion of agricultural areas.

Changes in land use and ecosystem services values in Pakistan, 1950–2050

Valuation of ecosystem services is a powerful lens for viewing the impacts of land-use changes on society and the environment. Land-use change — a pervasive driver of changes in ecosystem services — has never been investigated for its effects on overall ecosystem services in Pakistan. In this study, I use the value transfer method to valuate Pakistan's ecosystem services for the years 1950, 2000, 2015 and 2050. Four land-use scenarios, developed under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios, are analyzed for year 2050. The results show an increase of $87 billion (in USD 2017) in the value of ecosystem services between years 1950 and 2000 due to the construction of dams and expansion of agricultural areas into the deserts. However, there is a sharp drop of $70 billion between years 2000 and 2015. All future scenarios for year 2050 except B2—an eco-friendly scenario—show a decline (ranging from 12 to 21%) in the value of ecosystem services for year 2015, due to decreased open water, forest and agricultural areas. As a result of compact urbanization, medium economic growth and decline in desertification rates, B2 yields a higher value (by ~$8 billion) than that of year 2015. Furthermore, assessing the two critical services for the country, climate and water services, shows that the value of climate services continuously decreases for years 2000, 2015 and 2050 in comparison to their value for year 1950 due to shrinking of forest and grassland areas. On the other hand, the value of water services increases from 1950 to 2000 due to the scaling up of the irrigation system, but plummets for the 2015 and future land-use scenarios in response to reduced open water. Yet, per capita values for both services (climate and water) show a decrease for years 2000, 2015 and 2050 compared to year 1950. These results can inform land-use planning for efficient provision of ecosystem services in Pakistan.

Calibration and validation of the SWAT model for hydrological simulation in a basin in Western Bahia

Hydrological modeling presents itself as a fundamental tool for the management and management of water resources, since it helps to understand the flow of water, sediments and contaminants in a hydrographic basin. The Correntina River basin, located in the western region of Bahia, has been undergoing an intense process of alteration in its landscape motivated by the expansion of agricultural areas in the region, requiring the adoption of instruments for studies that assess the environmental impacts mainly on surface water resources. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the SWAT model for representing the hydrological behavior in the hydrographic basin of the Correntina River, using the SWAT-CUP for automatic calibration and validation. Statistical performance coefficients attested the model's capacity for hydrological simulations in this basin on a monthly time scale, with KGE, Pbias, NSE and R² showing values ​​of 0.69, 0.57, 0.5% and 0.74 in the calibration stage, and 0.73, -3.95 %, 0.64 and 0.76 in the validation step, respectively. In addition, the SWAT was also shown to be suitable for simulating the permanence curves, characterizing the model as a good tool to aid the management of water resources in the basin under study. Subsequent studies will make it possible to analyze the impacts of land use and climate change on the hydrological behavior of the basin under study.

Diversity of Bee Assemblage (Family Apidae) in Natural and Agriculturally Intensified Ecosystems in Uruguay.

Bees (Family Apidae) hold a key role as pollinators in a wide range of angiosperm communities. South America suffered strong modifications during the last decade due to increasing anthropic activities and the expansion of agricultural areas, particularly the boom of soybean. The goal of this research was to know the current diversity of bees in South and Low Littoral regions in Uruguay. Specimens were collected in the seasons 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 on natural meadows, cultivated grasslands, soybean fields, among others flowering communities. Collected specimens were classified following taxonomic keys. Forty-five bee species or taxa were distinguished belonging to the subfamilies Megachilinae (11), Apinae (22), Halictinae (7), Colletinae (2), and Andreninae (3). Most taxa were classified up to genus and 14 to species level. Bee diversity was higher for the South region, with traditional agriculture and rangelands, than that of the Low Littoral region where an increasing agricultural land use took place during the last decade, particularly soybean. In addition, this research aimed to study the presence of native bees and the introduced Apis mellifera (Apinae) in a soybean field at four transects located at 0, 50, 100, and 200 m from the crop border in both seasons. Native bee species were only present at 0 and 50 m, pointing to the relevance of natural edge plant communities for their preservation. This is the first survey on native bee diversity in Uruguay to be regarded as a baseline and the setup of conservation strategies.

Land use/land cover changes and bare soil surface temperature monitoring in southeast Brazil

The land surface temperature (LST) provides important information about energy exchange processes, which are influenced by land use/land cover (LULC). Thus, our objective was to evaluate LST patterns driven by LULC changes, detected over a time series of Landsat images. The study area of 2990 km2 is located in the Piracicaba region, state of São Paulo, Brazil. We acquired Landsat images from 1985 to 2019, in dry and moist seasons. Six LULC classes (agriculture, bare soil, straw, forest, water, and pasture) were identified by maximum-likelihood supervised classification every five years and then LST was estimated using the inversion of Planck’s function in the thermal band. Spectral indices representing vegetation, water, bare soil, and straw were calculated and correlated to LST in specific years. Bare soil images and their respective LST in both seasons were used annually to approach the influence of bare soil areas on the LST, considering soil class, time and rainfall. LULC alterations over 1985–2015 were an important factor on the LST change, which varied on average from 21.46 °C to 41.31 °C in the moist season and 17.05 °C to 31.67 °C in the dry one. Water bodies and vegetation had the lowest LST values, whereas bare soil and straw had the highest ones. The correlation between LST and spectral indices somewhat agreed with such patterns. Arenosols presented the highest LST mean values in both seasons and differed from Acrisols in the dry season, which is probably related to their texture and mineralogical composition. In the moist season, LST was negatively correlated to rainfall, suggesting the influence of soil moisture content on its surface temperature. In the dry season, the LST of bare soil areas increased by an average of 0.13 °C per year, indicating a warming trend. In general, LST increased in the studied period, probably due to the increase of anthropic activity, such as the expansion of agricultural areas. These findings can assist future studies on the influence of soils and land use on climate alterations.

Influence of flooding duration and aeration on saplings of ten hardwood floodplain forest species.

Alluvial floodplain forests have been reduced drastically in many parts of Europe, due to deforestation, the transformation to settlement and expansion of agricultural areas. Although they have been heavily modified for centuries, generalized frameworks for their management are scarce and the complex interactions between the physical environment and biological processes are often not fully understood. As the zonation of woody species in floodplains is mainly determined by hydrological conditions, flooding tolerance can be regarded as a key factor for the successful establishment of woody species. Furthermore, the oxygen level of the flooding water might affect the responses to flooding. We examined the influence of flooding duration in combination with oxygen supply by aeration on the foliar injury and growth of six-week-old saplings of ten woody species, under controlled common garden conditions. Six of them are considered to be flooding tolerant whereas four are intolerant. In addition, seven are native whereas three are non-native species. During the experiment, the saplings were exposed to partial flooding of different durations (k = 3; three, six and nine weeks) and oxygen levels (k = 2; aerated and not aerated). For comparison, we included an unflooded control. We recorded foliar injury, plant height, number of leaves and stem diameter. We also included a long-term recovery period. Whereas foliar injury decreased for most species with increasing flooding duration, the typical floodplain forest species, classified as flooding tolerant developed better. The differences in species response to flooding could be most likely explained by their ability to react to the resulting stress in morphological, physiological and metabolic terms irrespective whether they are native or not. In addition, the inclusion of a recovery period seems to be important for the assessment of flooding tolerance.

Microbial activity and population of a red-yellow podzolic soil under organic and conventional cultivation systems of Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck

Fruticulture has relevant expression for worldwide plant production. With the expansion of agricultural areas, more attention is given to the soil preservation. Microbial activity is one of the parameters that together with the evaluation of microbial community provide data about soil biological quality. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the activity and microbial population of a red-yellow podzolic soil cultivated with Citrus sinensis under conventional and organic systems. Thus, soil samples were collected in two cultivated areas, under these both systems. A fraction of each soil sample was separated and autoclaved to determine the presence of thermoresistant microorganisms. The microbial activity was measured using the method of capturing CO2. The microbial population was estimated by selective culture medium, followed by counting of colony forming units. All data was submitted to analysis of variance and covariance (p≤0.05 and 0.01 respectively). It was observed that, initially, there was a difference in the microbial activity between the cultivation systems, and there was also a high bacterial population. Filamentous fungi and actinomycetes have distinct and peculiar behavior, which were function of the cultivation system and also of the soil samples heating.

MAPPING OF SUMMER AGRICULTURAL CROPS IN THE ALTO PARAGUAI BASIN THROUGH EVI/MODIS TIME SERIES

The main land use and land cover (LULC) changes that a given area passes over the time can be evaluated by using spatial-temporal analysis of satellites images. Then, it is possible to identify the LULC changes, as well as the main causes of environmental impacts. The objective of this paper was to analyze the LULC changes of the main agricultural lands cultivated in the Alto Paraguai Basin (BAP). This paper focused on the summer crops (soybean and corn) and the analysis of agricultural expansion. The results, considering a16-year comparison, showed an increase of 40.60% in the expansion of agricultural areas. The evaluation of the accuracy showed the efficiency of the methodology of agricultural mapping, presenting a Kappa Index of 0.85 for the 2000/2001 and 0.86 for the 2015/2016 crop seasons

Flora and habitat diversity of Kavuncu Saltmarsh

Turkey attracts attention with its high habitat and species diversity, and one of the important habitat type is saltmarsh. Kavuncu Saltmarsh which is relatively small is located at Central Anatolia between Ankara and Eskisehir and under the threat of some factors like expansion of agricultural areas, pollution from pesticides and fertilizers, and drainage of water for reclamation. There are 102 plant taxa of which 31 are halophytes and 8 are endemic. The plant communities defined from the area are as follows; Thypha domingensisPhragmites australis, Salicornia perennans, Juncus heldreichianus, Suaeda cucullata-Petrosimonia nigdeensis, Lepidium cartilagineum, Microcnemum coralloides-Aeluropus littoralis, Artemisia santonicum

Historical Land-Cover Change Impacts on Climate: Comparative Assessment of LUCID and CMIP5 Multimodel Experiments

Abstract During the industrial period, many regions experienced a reduction in forest cover and an expansion of agricultural areas, in particular North America, northern Eurasia, and South Asia. Here, results from the Land-Use and Climate, Identification of Robust Impacts (LUCID) and CMIP5 model intercomparison projects are compared in order to investigate how land-cover changes (LCC) in these regions have locally impacted the biophysical land surface properties, like albedo and evapotranspiration, and how this has affected seasonal mean temperature as well as its diurnal cycle. The impact of LCC is extracted from climate simulations, including all historical forcings, using a method that is shown to capture well the sign and the seasonal cycle of the impacts diagnosed from single-forcing experiments in most cases. The model comparison reveals that both the LUCID and CMIP5 models agree on the albedo-induced reduction of mean winter temperatures over midlatitudes. In contrast, there is less agreement concerning the response of the latent heat flux and, subsequently, mean temperature during summer, when evaporative cooling plays a more important role. Overall, a majority of models exhibit a local warming effect of LCC during this season, contrasting with results from the LUCID studies. A striking result is that none of the analyzed models reproduce well the changes in the diurnal cycle identified in present-day observations of the effect of deforestation. However, overall the CMIP5 models better simulate the observed summer daytime warming effect compared to the LUCID models, as well as the winter nighttime cooling effect.

Erratum to: Human factors explain the majority of MODIS-derived trends in vegetation cover in Israel: a densely populated country in the eastern Mediterranean

Land cover and land use changes can result from climatic variability and climate changes, as well as from direct and indirect human drivers, such as growth in population and consumption. In this study, we aimed to examine whether major factors driving landscape changes (expressed in vegetation cover) in Israel, a densely populated country in the eastern Mediterranean Basin, are related to physical drivers or to human causes. To this end, we calculated statistical trends in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI—a spectral index representing vegetation cover) from a 14-year MODIS time series, between 2000 and 2014, to identify areas where vegetation cover has either increased or decreased. We chose 125 study areas where statistically significant changes in NDVI were found and used time series of monthly rainfall, Landsat images, Google Earth images and environmental GIS layers to identify the type and cause of landscape changes. The two most common general classes driving land cover changes were agricultural (56 of 125; expansion of agricultural areas or change in agricultural crops) and urban (28 of 125; urban expansion or urban greening). Other important drivers of landscape changes included forestry, woody encroachment, wildfire dynamics and water management. Climate variability was found to explain landscape changes in only 3 of the 125 study areas, all located in the transition zone between the desert and the Mediterranean climate regions of Israel, where a decrease in rainfall led to a decrease in NDVI values. NDVI as an indicator of landscape changes is not effective to detect changes in non-photosynthetic vegetation or to monitor changes in forests where leaf area index values are high. However, we show here that even in a highly heterogeneous and densely populated country, MODIS-derived time series of NDVI are informative to identify landscape change processes.

Science for food, climate protection and welfare: An economic analysis of plant breeding research in Germany

We analyze the economic effects of plant breeding research in Germany. In addition to market effects, for the first time also effects of reduced CO2 emissions due to productivity increases are being quantified. The analysis shows that investments in German plant breeding research in the period 1991–2010 have reduced the global expansion of agricultural area by 1–1.5 million hectares. This has led to reduced CO2 emissions of 160–235 million tons. The economic value generated by plant breeding research, through increased production and reduced greenhouse gas emissions, is estimated at 10.8–15.6 billion EUR in the same period. This can be translated into a social rate of return on research investment in the range of 40–80% per year. Projections for the period 2011–2030 generate a return rate in the range of 65–140% per year. Investments into plant breeding research in Germany are highly profitable from a societal point of view. At the same time, our results show significant under-investments in agricultural research in Germany. These results provide a good justification for policy-makers to reverse funding cuts for public agricultural research over the last decades and to improve institutional conditions for private research, e.g. through better protection of intellectual property rights.