Exotic Disease Outbreaks Research Articles

The hidden carbon impact of animal disease.

Livestock production is under scrutiny for its impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Animal disease outbreaks will have economic effects on producers and the indirect cost of an animal disease outbreak is the result of shifts in consumption across commodities. This shift in demand for meat products will also positively or negatively affect carbon emissions. We explore the indirect costs and subsequent carbon impact of four potential exotic disease outbreaks, namely African swine fever, sheep pox, bluetongue, and foot and mouth disease. The indirect costs are quantified under different severities of outbreak using a vector error correction model and by estimating the changes in revenues of livestock and feed markets. By associating subsequent consumption switches with emission factors, we quantify the hidden carbon impact of these livestock disease outbreaks. The indirect costs vary based on severity and type of disease outbreak. Similarly, the net reduction in supply and subsequent consumption impacts result in averting between 0.005 and 0.67 million tonnes of CO2 eq. for these sectors. A foot and mouth disease outbreak has the highest indirect costs and largest reduction in GHG emissions as it decreases the production of cattle as consumers switch to lower emitting meat commodities. Conversely, African swine fever has the smallest reduction in GHG emissions, reflecting the more industrialised nature of pig farming. Our modelling approach opens a provocative debate around how compensation to producers supports restocking and how this relates to commitments to net zero farming. Overall, an exotic disease outbreak may trigger an opportunity to switch to lower emitting breeds or species if a more holistic, joined up approach were taken by Government.

A Study to Evaluate the effectiveness of Self-Instructional Module on Knowledge and Practice regarding infection control strategies among Staff Nurses working in Labour room at selected Hospitals, Chamarajanagar

Introduction: Infection prevention and control is an integral component of nursing care delivery in any setting to reduce risks for morbidity and mortality in patients and care givers at all levels. Basic principles of infection prevention are simple and include personal hygiene and hand washing. Nurses are on the front line to answer questions from patients and families when the media report outbreaks of exotic infectious diseases and the development of new super pathogens associated with health care. The most common infections acquired in the hospital setting and focus on the nurse’s role in prevention. Hence the focus of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of Self-Instructional Module on infection control strategies among staff nurses at selected Hospitals, Chamarajanagar. Objectives: 1. To assess the knowledge and Practice of infection control strategies among Staff Nurses Working in Labour Room, in terms of pre-test knowledge scores. 2. To assess the effectiveness of Self-Instructional Module on knowledge and Practice of Infection control strategies among Staff Nurses by comparing the pre and post-test Knowledge score. 3. To find the association between post-test knowledge scores with their selected demographic Variables of Staff Nurses. Methods: A pre-experimental design and evaluative approach was used in the study. The data was collected from 50 subjects; through purposive sampling technique. Data was collected using structured questionnaire. Major Findings of The Study: The overall analysis of level of Knowledge of staff nurses regarding infection control strategies showed that mean Knowledge scores of the subjects at pre-test were 14.7 (49%) with standard deviation 2.823 found to be moderate Knowledge regarding infection control strategies. After administration of Self-Instructional Module mean Knowledge scores of the subjects was 22.84 (76.13%) with standard deviation 2.787 found to be improvement in the level of Knowledge among staff nurses. Among the participants 60% of the staff nurses had inadequate Knowledge and 40% had moderate Knowledge in the pre-test. After administration of the Self-Instructional Module 62% of the subjects had adequate Knowledge, 38% had moderate Knowledge regarding infection control strategies in the post test. The analysis of practice reveals that 48% of the staff nurses had poor Practice and 52% had moderately good Practice in the pre-test. After administration of the Self-Instructional Module 62% of the subjects had Good Practice and remaining 38% had moderately good practice regarding infection control strategies in the post test. The Overall mean practice scores of the respondents was found to be 7.06 (47.06) with the standard deviation of 2.014 which indicates the poor practice of infection control strategies in pre-test. After administration of self-instructional module the overall practice scores of respondents were found to be 11.08 (73.86%) with standard deviation 1.967 shows improvement in the practice of staff nurses regarding the infection control strategies. Interpretation and Conclusion: Findings of the study show that there was a significant difference in pre-test and post-test level of Knowledge and Practice of staff nurses. From this it is concluded that the Self-Instructional Module is effective in improving the level of Knowledge and Practice of staff nurses. And there was a significant association between level of Knowledge and Practice of staff nurses and selected demographic variables such as Age, gender, religion, professional qualification, area of working, experience, source of information and attendance of in-service education programme.

More than meat: the role of pigs in Timorese culture and the household economy

ABSTRACT In the Asia Pacific region, pigs play an important cultural and economic role in society. However, the cultural significance and use of livestock is often overlooked in agricultural research and development. This paper describes the contribution of pigs to the social and cultural life of rural households in Timor Leste from the perspectives of women, men and children. Three lowland patrilineal and two highland matrilineal communities in Bobonaro district were selected for qualitative research. Eight focus groups were held in five sub-villages in two locations with 20 women, 20 men and 21 children involved in pig raising and 16 people not raising pigs at the time. Ten key informants were individually interviewed. Our research found geographic, gender and age differences in ceremonial roles and pig husbandry including types and numbers of pigs used, ritual activities and pig housing or feeding. Pig raising is mostly done by women and children, with men organizing cultural events and making decisions on using pigs for rituals. Challenges and opportunities to improve pig husbandry in contexts, such as Timor Leste with limited resources, absence of formal meat markets, exotic disease outbreaks and strong cultural obligations, are discussed.

Biosecurity in endemic foot and mouth disease settings: a case study of foot and mouth disease vaccination in South-East Asia.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral infection affecting cloven-hoofed animals including cattle, buffalo, sheep, goats and pigs. The disease is endemic in several parts of Asia, as well as most of Africa and the Middle East. In 1997, the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) established the South-East Asia Foot and Mouth Disease Campaign with the aim of increasing livestock sector productivity and economic output through the control and eradication of FMD in South-East Asia. Large-scale vaccination of livestock against FMD has in the past led to the successful eradication (or control) of the disease, for example in the Philippines. However, despite the benefit associated with large-scale vaccination, biosecurity risks can be created by vaccination teams moving between locations. It is therefore recommended that biosecurity measures are used by vaccination teams to prevent inadvertent disease spread. The majority of existing guidelines are focused on high-risk situations such as exotic animal disease outbreaks in developed countries, or agents posing a risk to human health. This paper describes the development of novel biosecurity guidelines for vaccination teams in South-East Asia. To achieve this, available literature was scanned followed by in-country workshops and field-testing of draft materials. Entry and exit procedures are laid out within the context of five core rules that follow the biosecurity principles of situational awareness, segregation, cleaning and disinfection. Guidelines and accompanying fact sheets were translated into local languages and included in a comprehensive vaccination training programme for all vaccination teams undertaking cattle FMD vaccination programmes in the New Zealand OIE FMD control project target countries (Myanmar and Laos). The material developed has wide practical relevance to veterinarians, traditional healers and village or community animal health workers, who all pose a heightened risk of spreading infectious agents.

The Role of Traditional Livelihood Practices and Local Ethnobotanical Knowledge in Mitigating Chestnut Disease and Pest Severity in Turkey

The European chestnut population is enduring multiple compounding exotic pest and disease outbreaks across Turkey. The deeply held value of the chestnut species for the Turkish public is reflected in substantial government conservation programming. Chestnut is predominantly found on state land managed by Turkey’s General Directorate of Forestry (GDF), which generally upholds restrictive policies for chestnut-related livelihood practices other than nut collection and beehive placement. Such policies are justified by a government position that human activities and presence is likely to worsen disease dynamics. Conversely, a growing body of research findings testify that small-scale livelihood practices maintain biological diversity and, furthermore, that this traditional maintenance of diversity has been correlated with decreased pathogen pressure within agroecosystems. However, few studies have investigated this phenomenon in the context of agroforestry systems. At a global ecological moment of increasingly pervasive and severe exotic forest pathogen impact, this paper investigates the influence of diverse small-scale livelihood practices and knowledge on chestnut tree health across the highly heterogenous geography of Turkey. We conducted ethnobotanical questionnaires with 96 chestnut-utilizing households, and chestnut tree health evaluations in georeferenced forest areas they identified, throughout Turkey’s Black Sea, Marmara, and Aegean regions. Using data from 1500 trees, we characterized the effects of subsequently recorded environmental, physiological, and anthropogenic factors on tree health using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA), multiple factor analysis (MFA), and mixed models. Our results show that the traditional human management of tree physiology and ecology has a significant positive effect on tree health, especially through the acts of grafting and culling as well as the maintenance of diversity. We argue that conceptualizing such livelihood systems as human niche construction and maintenance can help forest management agencies to better understand and conserve valuable landscapes, even in increasingly common periods of severe pathogenic pressure.

Cross-border dissemination of lumpy skin disease: risc analysis for Ukraine

National biosecurity is a system of organizational and technical measures that help protect humans, animals and the environment from potential and actual biological threats. That is why analysis of the main hazardous biological sources for humans and animals has been carried out. The influence of climate change on the animals’ welfare as well as their predisposition to the deferred type tendency is proved. The prevalence of vector diseases of animals, mycoses and mycotoxicoses, which can manifest themselves in the form of such emergencies as outbreaks of exotic diseases, large-scale epizootics, a sharp increase of the incidence of endemic diseases, etc., are of both ecological and biological danger. Contagious vesicular (nodular) dermatitis (Lumpy skin disease, LSD) is caused by the virus belonging to the genus Capripoxvirus, the Poxviridae family and affects mainly cattle and buffaloes. The virus is distributed mainly by means of mechanical carriers (species of Stomoxys spp. and other flies). Global warming on the European continent facilitates the migration of blood-sucking insects that are carriers of vector diseases. As a result, the insects occupy new ecological niches adapting to the new biocenoses. A poorly controlled movement of large numbers of livestock also creates a risk of disease spreading. The World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) has identified LSD as highly dangerous illnesses subject to notification. The focus is made on policies dealing with the control and eradication of contagious nodular dermatitis in case of its detection. The spread of LSD can be prevented through the introduction of biosafety measures at the farm level and the introduction of restrictions on the movement of infection-susceptible animals and goods from the infected territories. Vaccination is the most effective disease control tool in endemic areas. LSD control and elimination policy in case of disease detection includes sanitary slaughter (stamping-out) of infected animals – a complex of antiepizootic measures that carry out by direction of the chief state inspector, including the slaughter of sick and infected animals of the herd, and if necessary, animals of another herd that could lead before the transmission of a pathogenic agent – the pathogen of contagious nodular dermatitis of cattle. All animals, that are susceptible to the disease, whether vaccinated or not, are clogged and their carcasses are destroyed by burning, burial with the guarantee of preventing the spread of infection through carcasses or other products of dead animals. Emergency control of outbreaks envisages the ring vaccination of buffer zones within 25–50 km from infected areas, as well as foundation of temporary or permanent slaughter places in the infected areas. Sufficient herd immunity must be created and maintained within large territories both around the infected area and at the borders with infected countries. Such immunity is achieved when 80% of the herd is covered by vaccination.

Efficient use of sentinel sites: detection of invasive honeybee pests and diseases in the UK.

Sentinel sites, where problems can be identified early or investigated in detail, form an important part of planning for exotic disease outbreaks in humans, livestock and plants. Key questions are: how many sentinels are required, where should they be positioned and how effective are they at rapidly identifying new invasions? The sentinel apiary system for invasive honeybee pests and diseases illustrates the costs and benefits of such approaches. Here, we address these issues with two mathematical modelling approaches. The first approach is generic and uses probabilistic arguments to calculate the average number of affected sites when an outbreak is first detected, providing rapid and general insights that we have applied to a range of infectious diseases. The second approach uses a computationally intensive, stochastic, spatial model to simulate multiple outbreaks and to determine appropriate sentinel locations for UK apiaries. Both models quantify the anticipated increase in success of sentinel sites as their number increases and as non-sentinel sites become worse at detection; however, unexpectedly sentinels perform relatively better for faster growing outbreaks. Additionally, the spatial model allows us to quantify the substantial role that carefully positioned sentinels can play in the rapid detection of exotic invasions.

D2R2: an evidence-based decision support tool to aid prioritisation of animal health issues for government funding

An evidence-based decision support tool, ‘D2R2’, has been developed by Defra. It contains a wide range of standardised information about exotic and endemic diseases held in ‘disease profiles’. Each profile...

Review of forest dynamics simulation under the background of climate change: a case study of Forest Gap Model and Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

Under the background of global climate change, forest geographic distribution and ecological processes have attracted increasingly more attention of the research community. Response of forest to climate change is a complex process. In the past decade, a growing number of researchers have simulated the climate effects on plant species or vegetation by using various models. Among the simulation models, the Forest Gap Models(FGMs) and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models(DGVMs) consider mechanism like vegetation succession and regeneration under climatic impact, and can reasonably simulate the transient response of forest in the context of climate change, which is one of the hot topics in climate change research. FGMs simulate forest change over time using spatially referenced data on a broad spatial scale(i.e. landscape scale), generally larger than a single forest stand. Spatial interaction among forest stands is a key component of such models. These models can incorporate other spatiotemporal processes such as natural disturbances(e.g. wildfires, hurricanes, outbreaks of native and exotic invasive pests and diseases) and human interference. These models are increasingly used as tools for studying forest management, ecological assessment, restoration planning and climate change. DGVMs are powerful tools to simulate past and future vegetation patterns and associated biogeochemical cycles. Most DGVMs are limited by how they define vegetation and their simplistic representation of competition. They use Plant Functional Types(PFTs) to show regional forest vegetation composition, and simulate proportional changes of PFTs to reflect forest geographic pattern dynamics. DGVMs have shown that forest dynamics could dramatically alter the response of the global climate system over the next century. But there is little agreement among different DGVMs, making forest dynamic one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in predicting future climate. DGVMs' predictions could be strengthened by integrating the ecological realities of biodiversity and height-structured competition for light, facilitated with recent advances in the mathematics of forest modeling,ecological understanding of diverse forest communities, and the availability of forest inventory data. In this paper, we review the development, components and types of the models and discuss the application of simulating potential response of forest geographic distribution and ecological processes to past and future climate change.As for deficiencies in current development and application of FGMs and DGVMs, key research should be carried out in multi-scale study of dynamic models and enhancement of the model description of the non-climatic factors, comparison among models, and assimilation of multi-source remote sensing data and models, among others. In conclusion, only when these models reflect more accurately realistic relationships between plant species or vegetation and climate variables, can they be employed to simulate responses of plant species or vegetation to rapid change in climate.

The threat of midge-borne equine disease: investigation of Culicoides species on UK equine premises

There are concerns that outbreaks of exotic or novel vector-borne viral diseases will increasingly occur within northern Europe and the UK in the future. African horse sickness (AHS) is a...

An investigation of the movement patterns and biosecurity practices on Thoroughbred and Standardbred stud farms in New Zealand

Utilising a face-to-face interview of stud managers, a survey was conducted to investigate the movement patterns around, and biosecurity practices on, Thoroughbred and Standardbred stud farms. Eligible stud farms (n=60) were identified from the 2009 Thoroughbred stallion register and 2009 Standardbred stallion register, and stud managers were asked to participate in the interview. In total, 27 stud managers agreed to participate in the study, and participating stud farms included 38% of Thoroughbred and 60% of Standardbred mares bred in 2009. All stud managers reported the movement of horses to and from their stud farm. The median number of movement events per year was 127 (interquartile range 83–300). The frequency of movement events from a stud farm was not associated with the breed of horse managed on the stud farm, however Thoroughbred horses travelled further than Standardbred horses during these movement events (P<0.001). The movement patterns of horses around stud farms showed a strong seasonality associated with the commercial breeding season of each breed. While 26 (96%) of stud managers reported having procedures in place for checking newly arriving horses, only 6 (22%) stud managers reported isolating horses on arrival as a standard protocol. The main reason for isolating horses on properties, where isolation was not a standard procedure, was in response to strangles outbreaks on other stud farms (n=10). Only 2 (7%) stud managers reported implementing visitor protocols, and these protocols only applied to visiting veterinarians, but not to farriers. These findings have important implications for the control of both endemic and exotic infectious disease outbreaks within the New Zealand breeding population as the high frequency of movement around stud farms, the high number of visitors to stud farms and the lack of effective biosecurity practices or visitor protocols will be critical factors in the spread of equine influenza during an outbreak.

Rapid detection of foot-and-mouth disease virus using a field-portable nucleic acid extraction and real-time PCR amplification platform

Rapid and accurate field diagnostic tools can be used to support clinical diagnosis during outbreaks of exotic livestock diseases. This study evaluated a mobile PCR amplification platform that performs RNA extraction, real-time reverse-transcription PCR (rRT-PCR) and interpretation of results without operator intervention. Initial studies showed that there was equivalence between the detection limit generated by RNA extracted using the mobile platform and an automated laboratory-based system. In subsequent studies, two validated laboratory-based foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV)-specific rRT-PCRs were transferred onto the mobile platform and all assay steps (RT incubation and PCR amplification) were performed with non-lyophilised reagents using an optimised protocol of less than 60 min. The limit of detection of the rRT-PCR on the mobile PCR platform was equivalent to an automated laboratory-based assay used for routine diagnosis of FMDV and there was concordance between these methods for results generated using samples in a reference laboratory proficiency panel. Future studies will be directed at the development and validation of commercially-viable consumables using lyophilised PCR reagents for FMDV and the evaluation of this technology in FMD endemic countries using field samples.

Quarantine, exports and animal disease in Australia 1901–2010

The Constitution forming the Australian Commonwealth Government on 1 January 1901 provided that animal and animal products imported into and exported from Australia would be under the authority of the national government. By mutual agreement, the Quarantine Act 1908 provided for the states to continue the delivery of services under contract until 1995 when the Commonwealth took back full responsibility for quarantine services. In the 1940s, 50s and 60s there were world pandemics of livestock diseases and Australia ceased the import of many species. By the 1970s, the livestock industries sought relaxation of import restrictions to gain access to diversified genetic stock. By the use of new technologies, many species can now be imported into Australia through tight importation protocols. With the advent of the World Trade Organization and implementation of the Sanitary Phytosanitary Agreement, Australia has developed a risk-based framework to support the development of import conditions for animals and animal products. Australia's 'Acceptable Level of Protection' has been set to provide a low likelihood of disease entry. Being an island continent, Australia can apply strong controls over imports and exports of all commodities and relatively few outbreaks of exotic animal diseases have occurred by breach of quarantine, but the outbreaks of rinderpest in 1923 and equine influenza in 2007 were notable exceptions.

Evaluation of post-farm-gate passive surveillance in swine for the detection of foot and mouth disease in Australia

Pigs are considered high risk for the introduction and spread of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in Australia. One of the most likely pathways of introduction of FMD into Australia would be through the illegal importation of FMD-contaminated meat, which is then fed to feral or domestic pigs. Locations where animals from different origins are commingled, such as livestock markets and abattoirs, pose a risk for disease spread. Early detection of exotic diseases at these locations is crucial in limiting the spread of an outbreak. The aims of this study were to evaluate the likelihood of exotic disease detection with current passive disease surveillance activities for pigs at saleyards and abattoirs in eastern Australia, and make recommendations for improving surveillance. Sensitivity (Se) of the current post-farm-gate passive surveillance for detection of exotic diseases was estimated using the scenario tree modelling methodology ( Martin et al., 2007a). Four surveillance system components were identified: (i) domestic saleyard, (ii) export saleyard, (iii) domestic abattoir, and (iv) export abattoir. Pig farms were classified according to herd size (Small vs. Large) and subsequently into two risk categories depending on the probability of swill feeding (Swill feeding vs. Not swill feeding). A scenario tree representing the pathways by which infected animals could be detected was developed and the Se of detection in each surveillance system component was estimated. Industry statistics, information on previous exotic disease outbreaks, and interviews with pig producers were used to estimate herd category proportions and the relative risk of swill feeding. Quantitative estimates for probabilities of detection were sourced from State legislation and policies, stakeholder consultation and observational studies at saleyards and abattoirs. Results of a FMD case study showed a Se of detection at a representative location for each surveillance system component during a 2-week period of 0.19 at domestic saleyards, 0.40 at export saleyards, 0.32 at domestic abattoirs and, 0.53 at export abattoirs. This output assumed the country was infected with herd and unit design prevalences of 1% and 30%, respectively. Improving disease awareness of saleyard and abattoir stockmen, increasing the presence of inspectors at these venues and identifying those herds posing a higher risk for FMD introduction, could improve the capacity of the country for early detection of emerging animal diseases.

Terra and Aqua satellites track tiger mosquito invasion: modelling the potential distribution of Aedes albopictus in north-eastern Italy

BackgroundThe continuing spread of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in Europe is of increasing public health concern due to the potential risk of new outbreaks of exotic vector-borne diseases that this species can transmit as competent vector. We predicted the most favorable areas for a short term invasion of Ae. albopictus in north-eastern Italy using reconstructed daily satellite data time series (MODIS Land Surface Temperature maps, LST). We reconstructed more than 11,000 daily MODIS LST maps for the period 2001-09 (i.e. performed spatial and temporal gap-filling) in an Open Source GIS framework. We aggregated these LST maps over time and identified the potential distribution areas of Ae. albopictus by adapting published temperature threshold values using three variables as predictors (0°C for mean January temperatures, 11°C for annual mean temperatures and 1350 growing degree days filtered for areas with autumnal mean temperatures > 11°C). The resulting maps were integrated into the final potential distribution map and this was compared with the known current distribution of Ae. albopictus in north-eastern Italy.ResultsLST maps show the microclimatic characteristics peculiar to complex terrains, which would not be visible in maps commonly derived from interpolated meteorological station data. The patterns of the three indicator variables partially differ from each other, while winter temperature is the determining limiting factor for the distribution of Ae. albopictus. All three variables show a similar spatial pattern with some local differences, in particular in the northern part of the study area (upper Adige valley).ConclusionsReconstructed daily land surface temperature data from satellites can be used to predict areas of short term invasion of the tiger mosquito with sufficient accuracy (200 m pixel resolution size). Furthermore, they may be applied to other species of arthropod of medical interest for which temperature is a relevant limiting factor. The results indicate that, during the next few years, the tiger mosquito will probably spread toward northern latitudes and higher altitudes in north-eastern Italy, which will considerably expand the range of the current distribution of this species.

Intervention Strategies for Carcass Disposal: Pareto Analysis of Exposures for Exotic Disease Outbreaks

An enhanced methodology for the policy-level prioritization of intervention options during carcass disposal is presented. Pareto charts provide a semiquantitative analysis of opportunities for multiple exposures to human health, animal health, and the wider environment during carcass disposal; they identify critical control points for risk management and assist in waste technology assessment. Eighty percent of the total availability of more than 1300 potential exposures to human, animal, or environmental receptors is represented by 16 processes, these being dominated by on-farm collection and carcass processing, reinforcing the criticality of effective controls during early stages of animal culling and waste processing. Exposures during mass burials are dominated by ground- and surface-water exposures with noise and odor nuisance prevalent for mass pyres, consistent with U.K. experience. Pareto charts are discussed in the context of other visualization formats for policy officials and promoted as a communication tool for informing the site-specific risk assessments required during the operational phases of exotic disease outbreaks.

A cross-sectional survey of biosecurity practices on Thoroughbred stud farms in New Zealand

AIM: To examine the on-farm biosecurity practices of a group of commercial Thoroughbred stud farms in the North Island of New Zealand, in the absence of an exotic disease outbreak. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of biosecurity practices was conducted during the 2006/2007 Thoroughbred breeding season, and consisted of data from commercial Thoroughbred farms in the North Island of New Zealand standing a stallion. Data were collected on-farm by a single interviewer, using 17 open, closed and multiple-choice questions examining general farm/operation size and features, general animal health and biosecurity practices, biosecurity practices in relation to breeding stock, and opinions about the application of on-farm quarantine measures. Data were examined for differences in biosecurity practice between farms with and without shuttle stallions, and differing in size. RESULTS: Data were collected from 28/34 selected farms during the 2006/2007 breeding season. Thirteen farms were classified as small, 10 medium, and five large; shuttle stallions were present on 12 farms. Commercial transporters were responsible for the delivery of 79% (3,116/3,945) of the mares. On arrival non-resident mares were rarely isolated though they were screened for cough (25/28; 89%) or nasal discharge (28/28; 100%); constraints on implementing arrival quarantine protocols for such mares were time (5/28; 18%), space (11/28; 39%), and staff workload (4/28; 14%). In the absence of disease, few farms (3/28; 11%) implemented protocols between cohorts of horses. However, focal points of high interaction between horses, such as foaling paddocks, isolation yards and crushes, were regularly cleaned and/or disinfected. In the presence of disease, the vast majority of farms (92–100%) implemented control measures such as changing clothes and washing hands between cohorts. Stallions were rarely quarantined on arrival. If the stallion was imported many considered pre-importation quarantine to be sufficient. Farms with shuttle stallions were more likely to have an arrival protocol in place than those that did not (92% vs 50%; p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Most stud managers were aware of the need for on-farm biosecurity; management constraints meant that protocols might not always be followed. The absence of an exotic disease outbreak and the overwhelming confidence of stud managers in the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) in preventing an exotic disease incursion were reasons for a lack of implementation of on-farm biosecurity protocols.

Temporal and spatial regional cattle farm turn-off patterns in eastern Australia

The introduction of the National Livestock Identification System served to provide a record of cattle movements by using an effective, electronic animal tracking system across Australia. The availability of an algorithm to simulate real-time and accurate movements of cattle is critical in the event of a major exotic disease outbreak. Such an algorithm could also be used for forecasting and formulation of policies to manage emerging disease threats. The National Livestock Identification System database will provide the basis for testing and verifying real-time and forecast cattle livestock turn-off patterns as a precursor to developing a real-time cattle movement simulation algorithm. The study demonstrated the major drivers and that real-time pasture information clearly needed to be incorporated into a movement model.

Will environmental changes reinforce the impact of global warming on the prairie–forest border of central North America?

Within the next 50–100 years, the warming climate will have major effects on boreal and northern hardwood forests situated near the prairie–forest border of central North America. This biome boundary shifted to the northeast during past episodes of global warming, and is expected to do so again. The climate of the future will likely lead to higher mortality among mature trees, because of the greater frequency of droughts, fires, forest‐leveling windstorms, and outbreaks of native and exotic insect pests and diseases. In addition, increasing populations of native deer and European earthworm invasions will inhibit the establishment of tree seedlings. The expected net impact of these factors will be a “savannification” of the forest, owing to the loss of adult trees at a rate faster than that at which they can be replaced. This will cause a greater magnitude and more rapid northeastward shift of the prairie–forest border, as compared with a shift solely attributable to the direct effects of temperature change.

Review of forest landscape models: Types, methods, development and applications

Forest landscape models simulate forest change through time using spatially referenced data across a broad spatial scale (i.e. landscape scale) generally larger than a single forest stand. Spatial interactions between forest stands are a key component of such models. These models can incorporate other spatio-temporal processes such as natural disturbances (e.g. wildfires, hurricanes, outbreaks of native and exotic invasive pests and diseases) and human influences (e.g. harvesting and commercial thinning, planting, fire suppression). The models are increasingly used as tools for studying forest management, ecological assessment, restoration planning, and climate change. In this paper, we define forest landscape models and discuss development, components, and types of the models. We also review commonly used methods and approaches of modeling forest landscapes, their application, and their strengths and weaknesses. New developments in computer sciences, geographic information systems (GIS), remote sensing technologies, decision-support systems, and geo-spatial statistics have provided opportunities for developing a new generation of forest landscape models that are increasingly valuable for ecological research, restoration planning and resource management.