Existence Of Global Warming Research Articles

Chances and barriers for Germany's low carbon transition - Quantifying uncertainties in key influential factors

With the energy sector being one of the largest sources of global greenhouse-gas emissions, a swift change in the ways of energy generation and consumption is needed for a fulfilment of climate goals. But while the existence of global warming and the resulting need for action are widely agreed upon, there is a lot of discussion around the concrete measures and their timeline. A major cause of this discussion is that of uncertainty, both with regard to possible outcomes, as well as to a multitude of factors such as future technology innovation (concerning both availability and costs), and final energy demands, but also socio-economic factors such as employment or sufficiency. This paper aims to give valuable insights into this uncertainty by applying the method of exploratory sensitivity analysis to an application of the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) for the German energy system. By computing over 1500 sensitivities across 11 core parameters, the key influential factors for the German Energiewende can be quantified, and possible chances, such as so-called no-regret options, as well as potentials barriers (if assumptions are not met) can be distilled. Results show that final energy demand developments, renewable potentials and costs, as well as carbon pricing are among the main drivers of the analyzed energy pathways. It would thus be highly beneficial for policy makers to focus on these key issues to ensure a timely transformation of the energy system and reach set climate targets.

IDENTIFIKASI SEBARAN KERENTANAN KEKERINGAN PERTANIAN MENGGUNAKAN ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP) DI KABUPATEN TEMANGGUNG

The decreased rainfall in Indonesia is mainly influenced by the east monsoon so air pressure from the southern hemisphere which is dry will flow through Indonesia. In a relatively long time, this may cause drought condition on agricultural land in Indonesia in general and in Temanggung Regency in particular. In addition, ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) contributed to the decreased rainfall in Indonesia. This phenomenon will be more intensive and extreme with the existence of global warming. The identification of vulnerability of agricultural drought is an effort to mitigate disasters. This study aims to determine the distribution of agricultural drought and determine the factors that influence agricultural drought in Temangung Regency. The research method used the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to build a model of agricultural drought vulnerability by considering several factors. The results showed that the area of agricultural land which is vulnerable and very vulnerable to drought is 86,2 km2 and 74,14 km2, while agricultural land with moderate vulnerability is 208,21 km2, and agricultural land which is not vulnerable and very not vulnerable to drought is 128,15 km2 and 267,33 km2. The main factor as a determinant of agricultural drought in Temanggung Regency is rainfall. Meanwhile, the next factor is the respective land cover and soil texture. This research concludes that the effect of slope is not a big impact on agricultural drought in Temanggung Regency.

The impact of climate change on land suitability and cocoa productivity in Tulakan District, Pacitan Regency

The existence of global warming, directly or indirectly, will have an impact on climate change which will threaten the productivity of cocoa plantations. This study aims to (1) determine the correlation between rainfall, relative humidity, and temperature to cocoa productivity and (2) determine the correlation between land suitability and cocoa productivity in Tulakan District, Pacitan Regency. The method used in this research was a descriptive exploratory method with a purposive sampling technique of collecting soil samples on land map units that have been determined based on various map overlays. There are five land map units (LMU) with a total area of 2.624 Ha with each LMU repeated three times. Regression correlation analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between rainfall and relative humidity on land suitability and cocoa productivity. The analysis showed that there was a negative correlation between rainfall and cocoa productivity (r = - 0.892, p <0.05), as well as relative humidity and cocoa productivity (r = - 0.950, p <0.05). There was a positive correlation between land suitability and cocoa productivity (r = 0.895, p < 0.05). Land map unit 1,2,3 were the best class of land suitability with the lowest limiting factor (relative humidity and available P), and it has high cocoa productivity. The higher rainfall and relative humidity will affect the lower cocoa productivity.

Subnational bipartisanship on climate change: evidence from surveys of local and state policymakers

While the US Congress has repeatedly failed to pass the national legislation to address climate change over the years, there has been much more progress among state and local governments. Is this progress on climate change policy at the subnational level merely a reflection of the dominance of the Democratic Party in certain regions of the country, or does it reflect successful bipartisan action? In this essay, we present novel evidence from two surveys of subnational policymakers, conducted in 2015 and 2017, to demonstrate that there is widespread bipartisan agreement among Republican and Democrat policymakers at the subnational level about (1) the existence of global warming and (2) what to do about it. Specifically, a majority in both parties believe global warming is happening and support the use of renewable energy mandates—rather than cap-and-trade, carbon tax, or emissions standards—to address the problem.

Addressing Global Warming Denialism

Abstract Despite the scientific consensus concerning the current causes and future effects of anthropogenic global warming, there has been little to no improvement in public opinion, attitudes, or behavior related to its mitigation. This article examines how different information conveyance strategies affect belief in global warming. Three experiments reveal that a fundamental understanding of the underlying mechanism of global warming—the greenhouse gas effect—is integral to belief in the existence of global warming. Specifically, the current research demonstrates that persuasive messaging incorporating an explanation of the mechanism (versus consequences) underlying global warming leads to belief change (study 1); that this effect is moderated by political orientation, such that the effect of mechanism-understanding on global warming belief is greater for conservatives (study 1, 2, and 3); that understanding of the mechanism underlying global warming affects willingness to engage in sustainable activities and buying socially conscious products (study 2); and that the effect persists over time and can influence actual donation behavior (study 3). Social, public policy, and marketing implications for this strategy are discussed.

Impact of Climate Change and Global Warming in India (With a Special Reference to Its Stand on Climate Change in International Forums)

In the last couple of decades, there have been extensive debates over the existence of global warming, today, the debate is largely over and a consensus has emerged in the global scientific community that Global Climate Change is occurring and that it will have a dramatic and adverse impact on the planet earth’s ecosystem. According to a report for the World Bank, by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) a German government-funded institute: the increase in earth’s temperature could result in a sea-level rise of 0.5 to 1 meter with higher levels also possible, by the year 2100 AD, affecting some of the most densely populated and vulnerable coastal cities and mega polis’s located in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Madagascar, Mexico, Mozambique, Philippines, the USA, and Vietnam as well as small Island Nations all over the world especially in South Pacific like Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Federated States of Nauru, Palau, Samoa and Solomon Islands. India also has been identified as one amongst the 27 countries that are most vulnerable to sea level rise caused by global warming. With global warming, the Glaciers are melting on all the six continents as well as in the Arctic Circle and these once majestic glacial mass which used to stretch to the edge of cities like La Paz and El Alto now end up high in the mountains. If present warming trends continue, all glaciers in the Glacier National Park could be gone by 2030 AD. Over the next 100 years, climate change is expected to accelerate and contribute to major ecological, physical, social, and economic changes, many of which have already begun. No one knows how long our planet can sustain and take on this onslaught, what we do know for sure is that climate change especially due to increasing levels of Green House Gases is already harming the fragile ecosystems and humankind all over the world. Its reality can be seen in the melting glaciers, disintegrating polar ice caps, thawing permafrost, changing monsoon patterns, rising sea levels, and fatal heat waves. Scientists are not the only ones talking about El Nino and La Nina which cause global changes in both temperatures and rainfall, it’s also been discussed at length now by Academia, Civil Societies, and Political Leadership, all over the world. ‎ From the apple growers in the orchards of Himachal Pradesh to the farmers in the drought-prone region of Vidharbha and those living on the disappearing islands of Sunder bans Delta a sprawling archipelago, with a core area of 10,000 square kilometres straddling between the Indian state of West Bengal and Bangladesh are already struggling with the impacts of climate change. India has been involved in constructive engagements on Climate Change and Sustainable Development since the inception of United Nations Environment Programme in 1972, through Rio Declaration Earth Summit 1992, Kyoto Protocol 1997, Johannesburg Declaration on Sustainable Development 2002, Copenhagen and the Paris Accord of 2009 and 2016 respectively within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). India is also a party to five major international conventions like the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN), United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization-World Heritage Committee (UNESCO-WHC) etc.

Trends in distributional characteristics: Existence of global warming

What type of global warming exists? This study introduces a novel methodology to answer this question, which is the starting point for all issues related to climate change analyses. Global warming is defined as an increasing trend in certain distributional characteristics (moments, quantiles, etc.) of global temperatures, in addition to simply examining the average values. Temperatures are viewed as a functional stochastic process from which we obtain distributional characteristics as time series objects. Here, we present a simple robust trend test and prove that it is able to detect the existence of an unknown trend component (deterministic or stochastic) in these characteristics. Applying this trend test to daily temperatures in Central England (for the period 1772–2017) and to global cross-sectional temperatures (1880–2015), we obtain the same strong conclusions: (i) there is an increasing trend in all distributional characteristics (time series and cross-sectional), and this trend is larger in the lower quantiles than it is in the mean, median, and upper quantiles; (ii) there is a negative trend in the characteristics that measure dispersion (i.e., lower temperatures approach the median faster than higher temperatures do). This type of global warming has more serious consequences than those found by analyzing only the average.

Carbon Footprint Associated with Construction Industry and Determination of its Theoretical Amount

The aim of this article is to analyse carbon footprint associated with construction industry, to identify its sources in the construction processes and to determine its theoretical amount in connection with its liquidation. In recent years, great emphasis has been put on the ecology issue and human impact on the environment, as the existence of global warming and the greenhouse effect due to human activity has been evident. The worst greenhouse gas affecting the mentioned situation is carbon dioxide. In this paper, the calculation of the carbon footprint is processed during the production phase of the house construction, in terms of material demand, in both low-energy and standard design. Furthermore, a calculation is made to calculate the carbon footprint equivalent. Subsequently, the economic demandingness of the investment in the construction of the above mentioned houses is evaluated, depending on the cost of material and the disposal of carbon dioxide. The obtained results imply that the amount of the carbon footprint, e.g. its environmental impact by the production of low-energy and standard houses in the construction phase is comparable, therefore the motivation for implementation of more ecological buildings is currently missing.

The Prosecution of Climate Change Dissent

A May 2015 op-ed in the Washington Post by Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D. RI) accused the fossil fuel industry of “funding a massive and sophisticated campaign to mislead the American people about the environmental harm caused by carbon pollution. Their activities are often compared to those of Big Tobacco denying the health dangers of smoking. Big Tobacco’s denial scheme was ultimately found by a federal judge to have amounted to a racketeering enterprise.” The Attorneys General of New York and Massachusetts began investigating Exxon Mobil because its chairmen expressed opinions such as - “Efforts to address climate change should focus on engineering methods to adapt to shifting weather patterns and rising sea levels rather than trying to eliminate use of fossil fuels.” We look at these two investigations through the lenses of the federal mail and wire fraud statutes (at issue in the racketeering case against big tobacco), and the First Amendment. We analyze the difficulty of prosecuting someone under the federal mail and wire fraud statutes for expressing an opinion, and discuss why scientific statements are more akin to opinions than statements of fact. We conclude that a case can be made against the Exxon chairmen only if the chairmen did not actually believe the opinions they uttered. Holding the chairmen to the standard of an expert, their opinions entail liability only if the opinions lacked a reasonable basis, or if the chairmen knew material facts, unknown to the public, which conflicted with their opinions. Even if the case could be made that the Exxon statements were not true, climate change is a matter of public concern and active public debate, so that even if the statements could be categorized as a form of commercial speech, the First Amendment would allow only counter speech as a remedy. We conclude that Sen. Whitehouse’s analogy to the tobacco case was misconceived, that it is highly unlikely that the Exxon statements can lead to RICO liability, or fraud liability of any kind, that there is no probable cause to believe that an offense has been committed, and that the AGs’ investigations are misconceived. Being lawyers (and since only one of us is also a meteorologist), we have focused on the law, and express no opinion regarding the existence of global warming or climate change.

Responding to misinformation about climate change

ABSTRACTThis study examined responses to climate change misinformation and messages designed to counter misinformation. Participants (N = 406) first responded to a social media post denying the existence of global warming and then were randomly assigned to read one of three responses to the original post (correction, collaboration, control). Participants in the collaboration condition reported the highest likelihood of posting their own comment, were more likely to agree with or like the comment, and were less likely to be argumentative in their own response. Support of action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions did not vary based on experimental condition.

Weather, climate, politics, or God? Determinants of American public opinions toward global warming

ABSTRACT2012 American National Election Study data supplemented with monthly temperature data from the United States Historical Climatology Network are used to examine how religion, politics, and weather and climate affect views of global warming. Evangelical fundamentalism is the most consistent factor among all religion-related variables in determining perceptions of global warming, those more oriented toward evangelical fundamentalism being less likely than others to believe in the existence, anthropogenic cause, and adverse impact of global warming. Controlling for the effects of traditional political predisposition variables, including party identification and political ideology, support for the Tea Party plays a dominant role in determining views of global warming; support for the Tea Party leading to higher likelihood of disbelief in the existence, anthropogenic cause, and negative impact of global warming. Warming winters coupled with cooling springs of the past decade are positively related with belief in the existence of global warming.

Hyperobjects: Philosophy and Ecology after the End of the World by Timothy Morton

<i>Hyperobjects: Philosophy and Ecology after the End of the World</i> by Timothy Morton

Extreme weather experiences and climate change beliefs in China: An econometric analysis

This paper examines the extent and the determinants of global climate change beliefs. In contrast to former studies for the U.S. and other western countries, we focus on China due to its crucial role in international climate policy in conjunction with its vulnerability to global warming. The empirical analysis is based on unique data from a survey among more than 1000 adults in five Chinese cities. In line with former studies, our results reveal that the vast majority of almost 90% of the Chinese respondents believes in the existence of global warming. This seems to be a convenient and necessary basis for the support of costly public adaptation activities in China. Our econometric analysis reveals that already perceived experiences with extreme weather events (and particularly heatwaves) alone are strongly correlated with climate change beliefs and that physical or financial damages due to these events lead to even stronger relationships. Our estimation results additionally suggest females as well as people with a lower education, in medium ages, with higher household incomes, and from Chengdu or Shenyang to be more skeptical toward the existence of climate change.

Eliminating the local warming effect

A growing body of work shows that perceived deviations in daily local temperatures alter individuals’ global warming beliefs and concerns (e.g., Krosnick et al. 2006, Semenza et al. 2008, Li et al. 2011, Zaval et al. 2014). Little research, however, explores the conditions under which this “local warming” effect occurs. Here, Druckman presents an experiment that shows how a simple prompt—that reminds individuals to remember how the weather felt over the past year—eliminates the local warming effect. Specifically, the prompt severs the relationship between perceptions of the daily temperature with estimates of last year’s temperature deviations, which is the basis on which many base their global warming opinions. While the results do not reveal the frequency that local warming effects occur overall, they do demonstrate the limits of the effect. Additionally, the findings suggest ways to rhetorically counteract the effect. Public opinion about the existence and salience of global warming plays an important role in the construct of public policy. Elected oriented politicians rarely implement new policies in the face of public opposition. A sizable literature has sought to explain the origins and nature of global warming opinions. One notable finding is that individuals often base their beliefs about global warming on their present assessments of local temperature: relatively warm temperatures lead individuals to increase their belief in and concern about global warming. Egan and Mullin (2014: 89) state that the “evidence for the effect of weather on public opinion regarding climate change is now overwhelming.” Perhaps the most compelling demonstration of the “local warming” phenomenon comes from Zaval et al. (2014). The authors present a series of ingenious studies that show, rather conclusively, that when individuals perceive the day’s local temperature to be warmer than usual, they then overestimate the number of warm days through the year, which, in turn, leads them to increase their beliefs about the existence of global warming and their concern about global warming (also see, e.g., Krosnick et al. 2006, Semenza et al. 2008, Li et al. 2011). Moreover, information about the distinction between weather (e.g., a constantly changing dynamic) and climate (e.g., average weather over time and space), or changes in terminology (e.g., global warming versus climate change) do not vitiate the impact of local temperatures on beliefs. The effect is substantively significant, rivaling the impact of age, race, and education on global warming attitudes (Egan and Mullin 2012: 796). For many this dynamic is concerning; Egan and Mullin (2012: 806) state, “[g]lobal climate change is one of the most important public policy challenges of our time... [people] use fluctuations in local temperature to reassess their beliefs about the existence of global warming... a discovery 1 Others find mixed evidence on the impact of climate changes on beliefs; however, much of the inconsistent evidence concerns actual and not perceived climate shifts: “studies tend to find that perceptions of weather have greater influence on climate change perceptions than do actual weather” (Marquart-Pyatt et al. 2014: 249).

Weather or Not? Examining the Impact of Meteorological Conditions on Public Opinion regarding Global Warming

Abstract Public opinion surveys in the United States have shown a substantial shift in American public views on global warming between 2008 and 2012. During the period between 2008 and 2010, surveys tracked a significant decline in the number of Americans that believed there was evidence that global warming was occurring. Then, during 2011 and 2012, surveys began to show a rebound in belief among Americans that global warming was indeed happening. This study serves to further establish the significant role that weather played in the short-term fluctuations in public opinion regarding global warming that has been observed since 2008. First, the study shows that individuals regularly refer to weather-related factors when explaining how they arrived at their conclusion that the planet is either warming or not warming and that these explanations correspond with broad weather patterns observed over the 2008–12 time frame. The study also finds that actual weather conditions, and specifically seasonal snowfall, shape the process by which individuals arrive at their conclusions regarding the existence of global warming. In particular, snowfall levels during the winters between 2009 and 2012 appear related to an individual’s beliefs regarding the existence of global warming, expanding upon previous studies that have shown a link between weather conditions at or near the time of an interview and respondent views regarding the existence of global warming. The study also finds evidence that the effect of weather on perceptions of global warming is modified by factors such as party affiliation and educational attainment.

Claims of hope and disasters: rhetoric expression in three climate change documentaries

There has been a boom in the number of political documentaries since 9/11. Quite often, the form of these documentaries has been rhetorical. They seek to argue, prove, demonstrate and convince the audience about a particular point. This article studies rhetorical forms and rhetorical expressions in documentary films using as an example three documentaries about climate change. Davis Guggenheim's An Inconvenient Truth (2006) looks like an illustrated lesson, but includes also the personal story of Al Gore. Not Evil, Just Wrong (2009) by Ann McElhinney and Phelim McAleer is an anti-environmentalist film, which denies the existence of global warming. John Webster's Recipes for Disaster (2008) is using clear narrative form and follows the filmmaker's family trying to cope for one year without oil. The methods of classical rhetoric are adapted to analyse these films. Besides argumentation (logos), also emotions (pathos) and matters connected to credibility (ethos) are essential. Guggenheim's film is also adopting features of monomyth by Joseph Campbell and hero's journey by Christopher Vogler. Webster's main character can be seen through old Christian myth of everyman. In documentary film rhetoric, narrative and other means of expression intertwine with each other. Rhetorical means can be part of the story and sometimes a story can be the best way to make an argument, as in Webster's case. It can be difficult to isolate rhetorical means from other narrative styles and cinematic elements and levels. Rhetorical documentary film is an organic entity.

A CONSISTÊNCIA DA ECONOMIA DE BAIXO CARBONO

This study uses literature review searching to conclude on the consistency of the Low Carbon Economy from the discussion of their basic assumptions about the existence of global warming and its anthropogenic origin, as it is not the object of consensus in the scientific community. The study reunites strong evidence about the phenomenon existence and its consequences, especially in developing countries, characterizing the actions towards the Low Carbon Economy as relevant.

Mass Media Flow and Differential Distribution of Politically Disputed Beliefs: The Belief Gap Hypothesis

This study, based on five national telephone surveys, extends the knowledge gap hypothesis by employing beliefs, rather than knowledge, as the dependent variable, and by comparing education with ideology as independent variables. These changes address epistemological and micro-level critiques of the knowledge gap hypothesis while extending it in new directions. Evidence supported the hypotheses that ideology would be a better predictor than education of beliefs about the existence of global warming, but not its causes, and that the “belief gap” between conservatives and liberals would grow over time.

The Origins and Consequences of democratic citizens' Policy Agendas: A Study of Popular Concern about Global Warming

This article proposes and tests a model of the causes and consequences of Americans' judgments of the national seriousness of global warming. The model proposes that seriousness judg- ments about global warming are a function of beliefs about the existence of global warming, attitudes toward it, the certainty with which these beliefs and attitudes are held, and beliefs about human re- sponsibility for causing global warming and people's ability to remedy it. The model also proposes that beliefs about whether global warming is a problem are a function of relevant personal experi- ences (with the weather) and messages from informants (in this case, scientists), that attitudes toward global warming are a function of particular perceived consequences of global warming, and that certainty about these attitudes and beliefs is a function of knowledge and prior thought. Data from two representative sample surveys offer support for all of these propositions, document effects of national seriousness judgments on support for ameliorative efforts generally and specific ameliorative policies, and thereby point to psychological mechanisms that may be responsible for institutional and elite impact on the public's assessments of national problem importance and on public policy preferences.

Business, Ethics, and Global Climate Change

In years past, there was substantial debate over the existence of global warming. Today, the debate is largely over. A consensus has emerged in the global scientific community that global climate change (GCC) is occurring and that it will have a dramatic and adverse impact on ecosys tems, nonhuman species populations, and human populations.1 In a recent review essay in Ethics, Stephen Gardiner notes that despite the fact that GCC is widely regarded by scientists, policy analysts, and politicians as an ethical issue, the philosophical literature on the ethics of GCC is surpris ingly underdeveloped.2 The primary subjects of ethical analysis identified by Gardiner are states, and the primary ethical issues he identifies are the fair distributions of burdens among states in reducing emissions.3 However, what ethical obligations, if any, the business organizations that produce these emissions?either directly or indirectly?have regarding GCC is not addressed. This is not surprising, for the possibility that business organiza tions can have ethical obligations concerning GCC is almost entirely absent from the existing literature on the ethics of GCC.4 The organization of this essay is as follows. First, an overview and brief history of the discovery of GCC is provided. Second, the influential position that holds that free markets and responsive democracies relieve business organizations of any special obligations to protect the environment