Exchange Risk Premium Research Articles

Exchange Markets and Stock Markets Integration in Latin-America

We analyze the relationship between the exchange markets and the integration process of the Latin American stock markets (MILA), focusing the analysis on two points. First, we evaluate the existence and nature of exchange risk premium and its relationship with the uncovered interest parity (UIP) bias. Second, we analyze the effect of MILA on Latin American foreign exchange markets. We use monthly time series between January 1997 and December 2021 for the exchange markets of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. The econometric analysis was based on OLS, GARCH-in-Mean and DCC-MGARCH regressions. Our results indicate that UIP is does not meet. Even the GARCH-in-Mean models results indicates that there is no individual risk premium that corrects UIP bias. However, the results of the DCC-MGARCH model show that there is a risk premium generated simultaneously by the correlation between markets. Finally, MILA increased the dynamic correlations of exchange returns and risk premiums, mainly among the MILA markets. These results have relevant implications for policymakers and investors due to the impacts on exchange markets dependence and international investment decision-making.

User cost of foreign monetary assets under dollarization

We use a Capital Asset Price Model (CAPM) model to derive the formula of user cost for foreign monetary asset whose rates of return are subject to foreign exchange risk premia. Our formula shows that only domestic non-monetary asset can be used as the benchmark asset. In fact, under dollarization the local currency’ assets offer a higher risk premium and return over the dollar denominated one because the latter is preferred over the first for hedging motives. Using data from Chile (from June 2003 to January 2022) and Croatia (from December 2011 to March 2022), our results show that the inclusion of the currency risk premium has improved substantially the formula proposed by Barnett (1978).

Pricing the Excess Volatility in Foreign Exchange Risk Premium and Forward Rate Bias

ABSTRACT We present the pricing of the documented excess volatility of the foreign exchange risk premium, relative to the interest rate differential. By specifying a term structure of interest rate model, the physical probability measure along with the pricing kernels or discount factors are used to derive a system for the expected future spot rate and the forward rate. The theoretical loads are found by solving the Riccati ordinary differential equations, and dynamic factors are captured to set up the global factors for both currencies. It shows that we prove the interest-rate surfaces are almost identical to the empirical ones, and the theoretical interest rates are guaranteed to be positive.

Long-term foreign exchange risk premia and inflation risk

As highlighted by recent literature, long-term foreign exchange risk premia (FRP) of a currency pair tend to covary negatively with short-term real interest rate differentials (RIRD) of the pair. We fit an affine term structure model for 9 major currencies against the US dollar and estimate two components of this covariance: the real risk premia (RRP) component and the inflation risk premia differential (IRPD) component. We find that the IRPD component is significantly negative for all currency pairs in our sample. We propose a macro-finance model to understand the types of shocks that generate such covariance.

The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in the Cross-Section of Stock Returns: International Evidence

Using the framework of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model, we estimate unconditional FX risk premiums for a large cross-section of firms from local currency perspectives. Further, we study the impact of potential FX risk diversifiability on FX risk premiums. Using equity data from nine major financial markets, we find support for FX risk being a contributing factor to stock return volatility in eight and a priced factor in four of the sample markets. Empirical estimates of FX risk premiums are economically meaningful, negative for U.S. and Swiss firms, and positive for Australian and Canadian firms.

An Exchange Risk Premium with Ambiguity Aversion in Continuous Time and Martingale Regression

본 연구는 환율의 초과수익률을 모형화하기 위하여 모호성(ambiguity) 회피성향을 반영하는 다중 사전분포 재귀적 효용함수(multiple-priors recursive utility)를 기반으로 한 연속시간의 자산가격 결정모형을 제시하였다. 본 연구에서 제시하는 모형에 따르면, 환율의 초과수익률 확률과정의 조건부 평균부분은 환율과 소비성장률과의 공분산에 의해 설명되어지는 부분과 환율과 시장수익률과의 공분산으로 정의되는 부분 그리고 마지막으로 다중 사전분포에 대한 가정을 할 경우 추가적으로 반영되는 불확실성 프리미엄 부분으로 구성되어진다. 도출된 모형으로 부터 효용함수의 주요 모수를 추정하기 위해 마팅게일 회귀분석방법(martingale regression estimation)을 이용하였다. 모형에 대한 추정 결과를 요약하면, 멱 효용함수를 가정할 경우 상대위험회피도는 약 16으로 추정되었으며, 재귀적 효용함수를 가정할 경우 위험회피도는 약 14로 추정되었다. 반면, 모호성에 대한 회피성향을 반영한 재귀적 다중 사전분포 효용함수 모형의 경우, 상대위험회피도는 4로, 시점간 자원배분에 대한 대체탄력성의 경우 1보다 작지만 1에 근접한 값으로 통계적으로 유의하게 추정되었으며, 모호성회피성향은 약 0.08로 유의하게 추정되었다. 이와 같은 결과로부터, 외환시장의 환위험프리미엄을 설명하는 요인으로 불확실성의 고려가 중요함을 예측할 수 있다.

¿Afectan los regímenes de tipos de cambio a la prima de riesgo cambiario? Evidencias internacionales

Este artículo analiza el impacto de la prima de riesgo en los rendimientos cambiarios y la relación entre la prima de riesgo y los regímenes de tipos de cambio flexibles. Utilizamos el estimador GMM propuesto por Arellano y Bond (1991) en una muestra de 21 países entre enero de 1997 y diciembre de 2015. Nuestros resultados muestran que la prima de cambio variable en el tiempo se concentra en los mercados emergentes y genera una depreciación que oscila entre el 1,8% y el 2,7% mensual. En los mercados desarrollados, hay una prima de riesgo de cambio constante que promueve una apreciación de sus monedas frente al dólar estadounidense. Estos resultados revelan que la UIP y la CIP no se cumplen, aunque su sesgo es menor en los países emergentes. La flexibilidad del intercambio tiene efectos diferentes entre países desarrollados y emergentes. Estos resultados tienen importantes consecuencias para los encargados de formular políticas y los inversores.

A Reconsideration of the Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity for the U.S. Dollar

We re-examine the time-series evidence for failures of uncovered interest rate parity on short-term deposits for the U.S. dollar versus major currencies of developed countries at short-, medium- and long-horizons. The evidence that interest rate differentials predict foreign exchange risk premiums is fragile. The relationship between interest rates and excess returns is not stable over time and disappears altogether when nominal interest rates are near the zero-lower bound. However, we do find evidence that year-on-year inflation rate differentials consistently predict excess returns – when the U.S. dollar y.o.y. inflation rate has been relatively high, subsequent returns on U.S. deposits tend to be high. We interpret this evidence as being consistent with hypotheses that posit that markets do not fully react initially to predictable changes in future monetary policy. Interestingly, the predictive power of relative y.o.y. inflation only begins in the mid-1980s when central banks began to target inflation more consistently and continues in the post-ZLB period when interest rates lose their primacy as a policy instrument. However, we caution not to rule out the possibility that excess returns are not predictable at all.

Exchange Rates and Liquidity Risk

I use Forex trading data to study how risks associated with the lack of liquidity contribute to the dynamics of 17 spot exchange rates through their time-varying contributions to risk premia. I find that liquidity risk matters. All the foreign exchange risk premia compensate investors for exposure to liquidity risk; and, for many currencies, exposure to liquidity risk appears to be more important than exposure to the traditional carry and momentum risk factors. I also find that variations in the price of liquidity risk make economically important contributions to the behavior of individual foreign currency returns: they account for approximately 34%, on average, of the variability in currency returns compared to the contribution of approximately 8% from the prices of carry and momentum risk.

Exchange Rates and Liquidity Risk

I use Forex trading data to study how risks associated with the lack of liquidity contribute to the dynamics of 17 spot exchange rates through their time-varying contributions to risk premia. I find that liquidity risk matters. All the foreign exchange risk premia compensate investors for exposure to liquidity risk; and, for many currencies, exposure to liquidity risk appears to be more important than exposure to the traditional carry and momentum risk factors. I also find that variations in the price of liquidity risk make economically important contributions to the behavior of individual foreign currency returns: they account for approximately 34 percent, on average, of the variability in currency returns compared to the contribution of approximately 8 percent from the prices of carry and momentum risk.

Long-Term Foreign Exchange Risk Premia and Inflation Risk

As highlighted by recent literature, long-term foreign exchange risk premia (FRP) of a currency pair tend to covary negatively with short-term real interest rates differentials (RIRD) of the pair. We fit an affine term structure model for 9 major currencies against the US dollar and estimate two components of this covariance: the real risk premia (RRP) component and the inflation risk premia differential (IRPD) component. We find that the IRPD component is significantly negative for all currency pairs in our sample. We propose a macro-finance model to understand the type of shocks that generates such covariance.

How Efficient is the Foreign Exchange Market?

In this paper, we try to measure the degree of efficiency in the foreign exchange market by using four exchange rates ($/€, $/£, C$/$, and ¥/$). Different theoretical models are applied, like the random walk hypothesis, the unbiased forward rate hypothesis, the composite efficiency hypothesis, the semi-strong market efficiency, and the exchange rate expectations based on anticipated and unanticipated events (News). If exchange rate efficiency does not hold, a risk premium must exist and can be measured. Also, the determination of this exchange risk premium is taking place by using a GARCH (p, q) model. The empirical results for these four major exchange rates (five currencies) show that relative efficiency exists, but there are significant risk premia for some exchange rates used, here

Capital Control and Monetary Policy in Asian Emerging Market Economies

This paper explores two policy options in emerging market economies (EMEs) to cope with volatile capital flows due to external monetary policy shocks; capital control policy and choice of exchange rate regime. Both tools reinforce each other when a foreign exchange risk premium shock hits the economy. A contractionary U.S. monetary policy shock has significant real effects in EMEs. Conventional wisdom tells us that a free floating exchange rate with inflation targeting is better when a country faces foreign shocks. However, we show that a flexible exchange rate with less capital controls is not the best option in EMEs based on vector autoregression analysis. Moreover, we set up a small open economy new Keynesian model with real wage and price rigidities. It shows that the small economy with labor market frictions is more vulnerable to exogenous shocks such as a foreign exchange rate shock under a fixed exchange rate regime than under a flexible exchange regime. We show that maintaining price stability is not desirable when there are substantial frictions in the labor market and the intratemporal elasticity of substitution is high. Finally, the model shows that the welfare cost difference between a policy of maintaining purchasing power and a policy aimed at price stability reverses as the intratemporal elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods increases.

Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Risk Premia

AbstractWe assess the relationship between monetary policy, foreign exchange risk premia, and term premia including the period at the zero lower bound (ZLB). We estimate a structural vector autoregression including U.S. and foreign interest rates and exchange rates and identify monetary policy shocks through a method that uses high‐frequency monetary policy surprises as the external instrument that achieves identification without using implausible restrictions. We split out effects of different types of monetary policy surprises that apply at the ZLB, including forward guidance and asset purchases. This allows us to measure the effects of policy shocks on expectations, and hence risk premia.

Global Risk Co-Moments and Carry Trade Strategy

The authors examine the relation between two global risk factors of co-skewness and co-kurtosis and the cross-section of currency excess returns arising from well-known strategies that borrow in currencies with low interest rates and invest in currencies with high interest rates—so-called carry trades. These global factors are constructed by distinguishing between U.S.-specific and global components of the market return. The authors find that currencies with high interest rates are negatively related to global co-skewness and thus deliver low returns in times of unexpected high global co-skewness, during which time currencies with low interest rates can provide a hedge by yielding positive returns. Their findings show that global co-skewness and co-kurtosis are key drivers of risk premia in exchange markets and are robust to various checks.

Risk Premium Estimation in the Colombian Foreign Exchange Market

We studied the foreign exchange risk premium in the Colombian market for the USD/COP exchange rate. Likewise most literature, we consider the existence of the risk premium, as we assessed the problem considering future contracts prices and spot prices at four different times of the morning. Furthermore, we found statistically significant evidence to consider the risk premium as time-varying due to different results in the estimations depending of the time of the day. Finally, in contrast with the early morning regressions, we encountered evidence that the estimation of the foreign exchange risk premium was statistically significant only in late hours of the morning, i.e., only at 11:00 and 12:00 suggesting that the exchange market may valuate more adequately the futures in the late morning hours. This can be explained by the fact that early transactions have higher volatility and may miss important information that the market include as the day advances.

Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Risk Premia

We assess the relationship between monetary policy, foreign exchange risk premia and term premia at the zero lower bound. We estimate a structural VAR including U.S. and foreign interest rates and exchange rates, and identify monetary policy shocks through a method that uses these surprises as the crucial "external instrument" that achieves identification without having to use implausible short-run restrictions. This allows us to measure effects of policy shocks on expectations, and hence risk premia. U.S. monetary policy easing shocks lower domestic and foreign bond risk premia, lead to dollar depreciation and lower foreign exchange risk premia. We present some evidence that U.S. monetary policy easing surprises at the ZLB shift options-implied skewness in the direction of dollar depreciation and also reduce the demand for the liquidity of short-term U.S. Treasuries. Both of these channels should lower foreign exchange risk premia.

Currency Carry Trade and Bank's Foreign Exchange Risk Management

The role of the market makers is crucial in determining the foreign exchange risk premium in currency carry trade. A typical market maker of foreign exchange is a highly leveraged commercial bank or investment bank. I derive a model of foreign exchange risk premium from the perspective of a market maker, in which the required foreign exchange risk premium is proportional to the volatility of foreign exchange rate, the net foreign exchange exposure, and the financial leverage. The financial leverage amplifies small changes in net foreign exposure and volatility into large changes in the risk premium. This amplifier effect offers an explanation to the foreign exchange risk premium puzzle. I use this model to examine the negative interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. in the 1990s.

Foreign Exchange Risk Premia and Goods Market Frictions

Foreign Exchange Risk Premia and Goods Market Frictions-Foreign Exchange Risk Premium, Forward Premium Anomaly, Random Walk Behaviors, Staggered Price Setting, Interest-sensitive Money Demand, Monetary Shocks

Exchange risk premia and firm characteristics

This paper examines the presence and the determinants of exchange risk premia in stock returns using firm level data from South Korea. We conduct empirical asset pricing tests based on cross-sectional data sorted by firm characteristics such as firm size, liquidity, foreign ownership, and industry. Using alternative model specifications and exchange rate measures, our results support the hypothesis of a significant unconditional exchange risk premium in the Korean stock market at firm and industry levels. More specifically, we find that the exchange risk premium is directly related to firm liquidity and inversely related to firm size and foreign ownership.