Exchange Rate Shocks Research Articles

Crude Price Changes and Nigeria’s Foreign Reserves, 2008-2023

The study investigated the correlational association between crude price and foreign reserves using the Nigerian economy as the jurisdiction of interest. The study covered the period 2008 to 2023 representing a 25year period. Bivariate pairwise correlational matrix was used to find that a highly significant positive linear association exists between crude price and foreign reserves. Following the findings arising from this study, it is recommended that the country should take advantage of crude price movement in building its foreign reserves given that increase in crude price will likely lead to a rise in revenue from crude sale. A high foreign reserve can act as stabilization fund for exchange rate, debt management and other shocks from international financial flows. Building foreign reserves can be beneficial in managing such exposures to the advantage of the Nigerian economy.

The Situation of Inflation Hysteresis in Türkiye: Analysis with Traditional, Fourier and Fractional Frequency Fourier Tests

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate shocks on pricing and whether the values normalise after the shock ends. Accordingly, the study tests the existence of inflation hysteresis. Goods and services sector inflation figures are used in the evaluation, and the data for the Turkish sample between February 2003 and December 2022 are analysed. The data are analysed by subjecting them to Traditional Fourier and Fractional Frequency Fourier tests. The methods used in the study minimise the margin of error as they include sine and cosine values as well as structural breaks in the analysis and are considered to be one of the most up-to-date analysis methods. According to the study’s findings, the increase in inflation rates in Türkiye does not show a permanent feature after appropriate policy adjustments.

Dynamics of Stock Prices and Exchange Rate with Structural Breaks and Asymmetry: Evidence From Türkiye

This study investigates the impacts of the nominal exchange rate on Turkish stock prices using a structural break cointegration test with endogenously determined multiple structural breaks and an asymmetric cointegration test for the period of 2002-2021. The study differs from previous research on this relation in two respects. First, it takes into account structural breaks in relation to both regimes and trends (C/S/T). Second, it extends the asymmetric cointegration with multiple structural breaks. The findings of structural break cointegration capture the break dates in line with the Turkish economics dynamics and reveal the negative effects of the exchange rates on stocks, with their significance and magnitude differing in regimes. Similarly, NARDL results indicate that negative and positive exchange rate shocks exhibit asymmetric effects on stocks for both the whole period and regimes. The overall findings demonstrate that exchange rate variations have distinctive impacts on stock prices when considering structural break and asymmetrical dynamics. In this background, policymakers and foreign investors need to take into account these dynamics when dealing with Turkish financial markets.

Export of agricultural products as a determinant of currency security of Ukrainian economy

Purpose. The purpose of this study is the development of the methodological approach for estimation the impact of agri-food exports on the monetary sphere of Ukraine in order to substantiate the prospective directions of the export potential of agricultural products as the factor in ensuring the currency security of Ukraine. Methodology / approach. The following methods were used: literature review in determining the main trends in the export of agricultural products based on the analysis of publications; economic and statistical analysis to assess the impact of key factors on the formation of the export potential of agricultural products and its impact on exchange rate formation; ARDL modelling, Dickey-Fuller, and Engle-Granger tests to estimate the impact of different factors on exchange rate changes. Results. The paper highlights the immediate and delayed influence of selected factors on the dynamics of the exchange rate in Ukraine, showing that the export of food products and raw materials for their production can significantly strengthen the national currency in the long-run. The continuous growth in food exports contributes to a slower appreciation of the exchange rate, which ultimately leads to a stronger national currency. Therefore, the strategy of focusing on increasing food exports can play a vital role in bolstering the Ukrainian currency in the long-run by exerting a positive influence on the exchange rate dynamics and contributing to the overall economic stability. Originality / scientific novelty. The study contributes to the understanding of the complex interplay between war, food security, and economic stability. The novelty implies the ARDL model of the influence of agricultural exports on the currency and exchange rate sphere of the Ukrainian economy. Additionally, the analysis adds new dimension to the discussion on the strategic importance of the agricultural sector for foreign exchange reserves and currency accumulation. Practical value / implications. The practical value is that understanding the relationship between export volumes, global prices, and exchange rate movements can help in predicting and managing currency fluctuations more effectively. By identifying the time frames for the return of exchange rate shocks to their long-term equilibrium and the impact of various factors on currency valuation, the study aims policy-making processes at ensuring currency security for the state.

Firm-to-Firm Relationships and the Pass-Through of Shocks: Theory and Evidence

Abstract Economists have long suspected that firm-to-firm relationships might lower the responsiveness of prices to shocks due to the use of fixed-price contracts. Using transaction-level U.S. import data, I show that the pass-through of exchange rate shocks in fact rises as a relationship ages. Based on novel stylized facts about a relationship's life cycle, I develop a model of relationship dynamics in which a buyerseller pair accumulates relationship capital to lower production costs under limited commitment. The structurally estimated model generates countercyclical mark-ups and countercyclical pass-through of shocks through variation in the economy's rate of relationship creation, which falls in recessions.

Asymmetry and non-linearity in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from scanner data

Using retail scanner data from Kazakhstan, an emerging economy with significant and unexpected exchange rate fluctuations, we observe an incomplete yet substantial exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into prices. Specifically, we note a 50% change occurring a year after the initial shock. The ERPT demonstrates asymmetry in response to exchange rate movements. Notably, the direction of this asymmetry is opposite for imported versus domestic products. Furthermore, our findings indicate that ERPT is non-linear; the price response is more pronounced when the exchange shock is small, aligning with the existence of menu costs. Understanding these asymmetric and non-linear price responses to exchange rate shocks may be crucial for formulating effective inflation targeting policies, especially in emerging economies prone to high inflation.

THE DYNAMICS OF EXCHANGE RATES, INFLATION, AND TRADE BALANCE IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY (CASE STUDY OF SIERRA LEONE)

Sierra Leone experiences a persistent trade deficit problem. Currently, there is a vacuum in the literature employing recent data and suitable approaches to address the issue of non-stationarity and dynamic interaction between macroeconomic variables in influencing the trade deficit in Sierra Leone. This study examines the relationship between Sierra Leone's trade balance, inflation, and exchange rate using quarterly data from 2005 Q1 to 2023 Q3. The focus is on understanding how the exchange rate and inflation impact Sierra Leone's trade balance in both the short and long term. To achieve this, the study utilizes the VAR/VECM model to depict the dynamic interaction between the trade balance, exchange rate, and inflation. It also employs Granger Causality analysis to determine the most appropriate ordering among the macroeconomic variables in the model and Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis to test the hypotheses regarding the trade balance response to exchange rate shocks and inflation. The empirical results confirm the existence of cointegration, indicating a long-term balance between the trade balance, exchange rate, inflation, and other macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth and interest rate differentials. Moreover, the dynamic prediction analysis using the IRF method supports the J-curve hypothesis in Sierra Leone and suggests that inflation can reduce the performance of the trade balance. These findings highlight the need for Sierra Leone to implement a comprehensive strategy to adjust the exchange rate and curb inflation to improve the trade balance and enhance external economic stability.

Exchange rate in emerging markets: Shock absorber or source of shock?

This paper examines the stabilization role of flexible exchange rates for emerging economies within the Latin America and Asia regions. Based on a structural VAR model, we utilize zero, sign and exchange rate pass-through restrictions to identify structural macroeconomic shocks. Overall, we find that exogenous exchange rate shocks drive around half of total exchange rate fluctuations in emerging economies. Despite this predominant role, we find evidence that exchange rates do not act as a source of shocks to the real economy, but they instead absorb and reduce output growth and inflation volatilities. Based on counterfactual analyses, we further find that this shock-insulation property is highly shock-dependent, where the benefits of flexible exchange rates are sizable for demand and global monetary policy shocks, but are overall small in the face of supply shocks. Results also differ across time horizons, where the shock stabilization benefits are mainly limited to the short run for output, but also extend to the medium term for inflation. We also find that the net benefits of flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber are in general larger for emerging economies in Latin America than in Asia, particularly during crises periods. Finally, while we find that the stabilization role of exchange rates hinges upon the nature of underlying structural shocks, there is also a positive association with structural determinants such as a country's degree of exchange rate flexibility and trade openness.

Are exchange rates absorbers of global oil shocks? A generalized structural analysis

This paper studies the impact of global oil market shocks on the level, volatility, and correlation dynamics of real effective exchange rates over time. We find that the USD and the EURO act as shock absorbers, as shocks to the global oil market explain substantial proportions of the volatility and correlation dynamics of each exchange rate – compared to the small or even negligible contributions of exogenous interest rate and effective exchange rate shocks. Further we find an interesting “puzzle” that the Euro Area unexpectedly behaves as if it were an oil exporting country - the EURO appreciates in response to a flow demand shock that increases oil price. Our findings are garnered from a generalized time-varying SVAR model with stochastic volatility that allows for correlated disturbances between observation and transition equations and among transition equations themselves. This approach of enriching dynamics between the first and second moments of endogenous variables is particularly suitable for capturing the transmission of structural level oil shocks to the volatility of exchange rates and their correlation with the global oil market.

Unravelling the devaluation puzzle: Empirical insights into the transmission channel on balance of payments and output in Ethiopia

Background Empirical studies on the impact of devaluation in developing countries, including Ethiopia, have revealed diverse and mixed results. The effects can be positive or negative depending on the specific economic context and policies in place.This study addresses the devaluation puzzle by providing a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of how devaluation affects the balance of payments and output. Methods To achieve this, we employ a recursive structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model focusing on Ethiopia from 2001Q1 to 2023Q4. Results The findings reveal that exchange rate shocks negatively affect the balance of payments in both the short and long run, with a greater impact observed in the short run. Shocks in other variables, such as foreign exchange rate reserves, inflation, and interest rates, exert a stronger influence on the balance of payments than the exchange rate itself in the long run. In addition, shocks in the exchange rate significantly impact foreign exchange rate reserves in the long run, highlighting the complex dynamics of exchange rates and the indirect nature of the exchange rate channel. Exchange rate shocks also negatively impact output growth in both the short and long run. Conclusion The study concludes that devaluation has a contractionary effect through various channels. Devaluation increases the money supply, leading to inflationary pressures and a decline in output. It also increases interest rates, which further reduces output. In addition, devaluation reduces foreign exchange reserves, resulting in a fall in the balance of payments and a decrease in output. We suggest policymakers prioritize exchange rate stability through practical monetary and fiscal policies. In general, International financial institutions, particularly the National Bank of Ethiopia, should reconsider their devaluation-focused policies, considering the complexities and potential negative consequences associated with devaluation.

Capital Flow Management Within Macroeconomics Stability Framework in Indonesia (2008 – 2022)

Indonesia is an EMDEs (Emerging Market and Developing Economies) country, and adopting an open economy causes foreign capital flow, especially FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) and PI (Portfolio Investment) can be free flows, and its movements are unpredictable. The movement of capital flows will affect the money supply transmitted to monetary and macroeconomic variables. This study aims to determine the response and contribution of macroeconomic variables to FDI and PI, as well as examining the causality between macroeconomic variables, FDI and PI. This research used the Vector Error Correction Model Granger Causality. The results show that exchange rate and inflation shocks significantly impact FDI and PI. While the results of Granger causality, changes in macroeconomic variables cause changes in FDI and PI. This research recommends that stakeholders continue implementing policy mix and monetary policy to improve exchange rates and inflation stability. In addition, the management of capital flows is still considered because the potential risks posed to the economy are quite large

Asymmetric Impact of Real Effective Exchange Rate Shocks on Economic Growth in Africa: Evidence From Symmetric and Asymmetric Panel ARDL-PMG Model

Asymmetric Impact of Real Effective Exchange Rate Shocks on Economic Growth in Africa: Evidence From Symmetric and Asymmetric Panel ARDL-PMG Model

Real Exchange Rate, Exports, and Imports Movements: A Trivariate Analysis

The exchange rate exerts a strong influence on a country’s trade. It is depicted from the high correlation between the real exchange rate and exports (0.90) and that between the real exchange rate and imports (0.88). In the present-day scenario of falling levels of tariff and a reduced number of non-tariff barriers, the exchange rate has assumed a crucial role in influencing the trade deficit. Imports have a very significant association with exports as shown by the correlation between exports and imports (0.97). The increase in exports in the absence of surplus stocks requires an increase in production, which in turn requires capital and raw material. We analysed the long-run relationship and the short-run dynamics among the three variables. It is concluded that there exists a long-run relationship between real exchange rate, exports, and imports; and real exchange rate is negatively associated with the exports and positively associated with the imports. In the short-run, imports and exports adjust towards their equilibrium when there is disequilibrium. But the adjustment in the imports is greater than the adjustment in the exports. Moreover, exports do not respond to the shock caused by the real exchange rate, but imports respond to the sudden shock in the real exchange rate. The study ends up with the note that the sudden movements in the real exchange rate do not affect exports. Therefore, Pakistan should not worry about exchange rate shocks.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation: Policy Insights for Vietnam Based on Comparative Analyses Across Asia

The exchange rate is a crucial macro indicator for any open economy, whereby any change in the rate would influence, to a certain extent, various socioeconomic facets. One of the significant impacts is revealed in the pass-through of exchange rate variations to price inflation, also known as the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). This paper explores the effect of ERPT on domestic inflation in Vietnam by comparing with other Asian economies. Specifically, pass-through mechanisms are examined for every single price as well as a distribution chain from import price index (IMP), producer price index (PPI) to consumer price index (CPI). The empirical results show that exchange rate shocks positively influence the price changes in Vietnam as well as in other Asian countries. According to Cholesky decomposition, the exchange rate plays a limited role in regulating CPI movements. Besides, world commodity prices are found to have a significant impact on domestic inflation across the sample-countries. Our findings reveal profound implications for monetary policy management and price stability.

A STUDY ON THE VOLATILITY SPILLOVER BETWEEN NIGERIAN AND BRICS ECONOMIES USING MULTIVARIATE GARCH MODELS

BRIC-African relation has been of interest to key stakeholders especially given the inclusion of South Africa. In the existing literature some researchers hypothesized inclusion of Nigeria will accelerate BRICS objective of enhancing market access to ensure rapid economic growth among other objectives. This study utilized daily exchange rates of Naira/Dollar together with BRICS Dollar exchange rate for a period of 18 years. The study aimed to determine the volatility spillover between Nigerian and BRICS nations via Multivariate GARCH family: VECH, DBEKK and CCC Models. The result of VECH and DBEKK Models showed that all parameters were significant at 5% level, indicating clearly that there is positive impact of Exchange Rate shocks of Nigeria on the Exchange Rate Volatility of the BRICS economies, while for the CCC model only one parameter was significant at 5% level. This clearly indicated the existence of positive impacts of Exchange rates shocks of Nigeria on the Exchange Rate Volatility of the BRICS economies. On the other hand, only VECH model was able to capture the volatility spillover (own and cross) both on negative direction, suggesting a causal relationship between past volatility shocks in Nigeria and current volatility in the BRICS economies. Conclusively based on the information above VECH model was found to be appropriate to capture the volatility spillover between Nigerian exchange rate and that of the BRICS nations.

Trade invoicing currencies and exchange rate pass-through: The introduction of the euro as a natural experiment

A recent literature emphasizes the prominence of dominant currencies in international trade invoicing and the role of invoice currencies in the transmission of exchange rate shocks. In this paper, we examine the introduction of the euro as a once-in-a-century natural experiment that induced a substantial shifting in invoice currencies, allowing us to test existing theories. We use unique data on the invoice currencies of the universe of export and import transactions of Chilean firms trading with the Eurozone over the period 1997–2010. Before the euro, exports to the Eurozone were dominated by the US dollar, and euro legacy currencies were rarely used. The introduction of the euro led a substantial number of firms to switch their invoice currencies to euros, which eventually accounted for 40% of all transactions. We first study the determinants of the adoption of the euro in exports to the Eurozone, finding a key role for strategic complementarities and for the invoice currency of imported inputs. We then show how firms switching from dollars to euros faced a radical transformation of their exchange rate pass-through, in line with recent theories. While the literature has studied trade invoice currencies in settings in which these are very persistent firm-level choices, our findings validate the conjecture that large–scale policy changes can lead to changes in these choices, and simultaneous changes in exchange rate pass-through.

Domestic and Global Causes for Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence From Turkey

Understanding which factors influence exchange rate movements is important for understanding economic development, trade patterns, investment decisions, and for designing economic policies. In this study, we allow for monetary, domestic and global financial variables to assess the relevant importance of each of the variables to exchange rate volatility in the case of Turkey. The paper investigates the dynamics of exchange rate volatility of the Turkish lira in a complementary perspective by employing both Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) method and Lyapunov exponents over the period from March 1, 2019 to November 11, 2021. Firstly, decomposing the impact of domestic and global financial variables, the results of the GARCH model indicate that the exchange rate volatility is affected by Volatility index (VIX) and Credit default swaps (CDS). This result suggests that the exchange rate shocks experienced are mainly caused by global factors, therefore policymakers should focus on volatility spillovers caused by global financial markets. Secondly, detected positive maximal Lyapunov exponent shows that complexity in foreign exchange markets has been increased, market expectations lead to multiple-equilibria and diverging volatility eventually will generate recurrent spikes in currency value. These complementary findings have important implications for interventions of Central banks and preventing systemic risks, as well as portfolio and risk management. JEL Classification: C32, G14, G15.

Inflation-targeting central bank responses to exchange rate shocks: evidence from Latin America

ABSTRACT This paper examines the impact of real exchange rate shocks on policy interest rates in the five major inflation-targeting economies in LATAM. Using a SVAR model with identification based on sign and short-run restrictions, we find that monetary policy reacts to real exchange rate shocks across all five countries. Specifically, interest rates rise directly in response to a positive real exchange rate shock (appreciation). A subsequent reversal occurs after a few quarters, with statistical significance observed in three countries. Additionally, shocks to the policy rate are demonstrated to effectively induce a real depreciation of the exchange rate.

ESTIMATING EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH TO DOMESTIC PRICES; SIERRA LEONE EXPERIENCE

<p>The study conducts an investigation that seeks to evaluate the nature of exchange rate pass-through on consumer prices in Sierra Leone. As a small, open economy, the country is susceptible to exogenous shocks. The exchange rate acts as a medium through which external shocks get transmitted to the real economy. Therefore, the general objective of the study is to assess the effect of the fluctuation of the exchange rate on domestic prices in Sierra Leone. More specifically, it sought to determine which type of exchange rate pass-through exists for Sierra Leone, using annual time series data between 1992 and 2022. The empirical analysis was based on a VECM model. The coefficient of the exchange rate (.5365) which is also significant at the 5% level of significance (p-value = 0.002), indicates that the exchange rate pass-through is incomplete in Sierra Leone. This means that a 1-unit depreciation of the Leone (increase in nominal exchange rate), leads to an increase in Sierra Leone consumer price by .5365 units or approximately 53.65%. This is an indication of indirect pass-through, where importers increase the price of imported goods to maintain their markup in the event of a nominal exchange rate depreciation. The recommendation to the finding is that since it was revealed that Sierra Leone has relatively high exchange rate shocks means that monetary authorities in Sierra Leone should pay more attention to the effects of EXR fluctuation on consumer prices. Measures such as the promotion of local production to substitute imported goods are key to addressing the effects of exchange rate variations.</p><p> </p><p><strong>JEL: </strong>F31, E31, C32, O24<strong></strong></p><p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/lit/0758/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Inflation in Ghana

The current study estimates the exchange rate pass-through on domestic prices from January 2013 to December 2018, using a recursive vector autoregressive model (VAR). Applying Cholesky decomposition to the model, six variables were ordered as follows: oil prices, output gap, exchange rate, import prices, overall inflation and Treasury bill rate with an assumption that the identified shocks contemporaneously impact variables which are ordered after the shock without any contemporaneous feedback. We find evidence of incomplete exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices. Thus, domestic price changes by 9.6 percent in the first three months following an exchange rate shock and the shock dies out after a year with a total pass-through effect of 10.7 percent. We also find that, exchange rate effect is more pronounced for the imported prices than the overall inflation, suggesting some moderation of pass-through effect in domestic price dynamics.