Indonesian Exchange Research Articles

Effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in Indonesia

This study discusses the channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism of money, credit, interest rate and exchange rate in Indonesia. The effectiveness of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Indonesia can be described and explained by the ultimate target object in Indonesia, specifically economic growth and inflation. The analytical tool used in this study is Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) which uses impulse response and variance decomposition in determining the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanism. The results explain that the credit channel is considered effective in explaining economic growth and the interest rate channel is effective in explaining inflation found in Indonesia.

STABILITAS DINAR EMAS DAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP INFLASI DI INDONESIA

This research was aimed at identifying the influence of the stability of dinar gold and fiat money and inflation in Indonesia. It used the secondary data published in reports of Central Statistics Bureau, Bank Indonesia and London Stock Exchange in the period of 1970-2010. It consisted of data on Currency, Gross Domestic Products, Exchange Rates, Dinar gold and Inflation. It was analyzed by the application of Error Correction Model (ECM) method. The regression analysis shows three important points : (1) in the short term range, the total currencies, fiat money and dinar gold significantly influenced on the inflation; (2) growth of currencies and Gross Domestic Products were high in the fiat money model than that in the dinar gold model and (3) the degree of dinar gold stability on fi the inflation was better than that of the fiat money. Keywords: Dinar gold, Fiat Money, Inflation, Error Correction Model

REAKSI SAHAM INDEKS LQ45 TERHADAP PENGUMUMAN KABINET KERJA TAHUN 2014 DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

This research entitle LQ45 stock reaction to the announcement of the cabinet work in 2014 on thestock exchange Indonesia. This analysis technique applies traditional techniques saturated samples. The population of 45 companies in LQ45 period of August 2014-January 2015 with the observation period of 10 days before and 10 days after the announcement/ the analaytical approach used to determine the stock price reaction before and after using one sample t test, while an analysis approach to distinguish the average of abnormal return and trading volume by using a paired sample t test using the alpha level () of 5%. The results of collecting data is to analyze of stock price reaction. It shows that there is no stock price reaction before and after the announcement of the Working cabinet. Because of abnormal return only occurs on H-7 (0.024) and H+8 (0.018), while others do not. The researches used a writting test. Test results of the test on average abnormal return is no difference in the average abnormal return and the announcement of the cabinet work before and after. The test results mean that there are many differences in volume average trading volume before and after the announcement of Labor cabinet.

ASIAN REAL EXCHANGE RATES AND OIL PRICES: A COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS UNDER STRUCTURAL BREAKS

ABSTRACTWe examine the long‐run relationship between Asian real exchange rates and oil prices in the presence of structural breaks. The relevance of considering breaks is demonstrated by utilizing the Johansen et al. procedure that allows for up to two predetermined breaks. Using conventional tests that do not consider breaks reveals no evidence of cointegration. However, the Johansen et al. procedure clearly demonstrates the importance of considering breaks and provides strong support for a stable long‐run relationship in all but Japan and the Philippines. Moreover, the results suggest evidence of bi‐directional causality in Malaysia and Thailand, uni‐directional causality from exchange rates to oil prices in Korea, the Philippines, and Singapore, uni‐directional causality from oil prices to the exchange rate in Indonesia, and no evidence of causality in Japan.

PENGARUH GOOD CORPORATE GOVERNANCE TERHADAP MANAJEMEN LABA PADA INDUSTRI PERBANKAN YANG TERDAFTAR DI BEI

Abstract; This research was aimed to investigate the effect of corporate govenance corelated with the compositions of board of independent directors, the size of director boards, audit committee and the size of the company to profit management happened in banking company listed in Indoonesia stoct exchange. In this research, profit management was measured by acrual estimate management ditected by Healy model (1985). This model was thedevelopment of acrual prediction model with measuring estimate acrual as the total acrual (Dechhow et al. 1995).The population of thisresearchwas alltheIndonesianbanking companies listed in Indonesian stoct exchange since 2008-2010. The data of corporate govenance and profit management were got from annual report, finance accounts of each company got from legitimate site of Indonesian stoct axchange (www.idx.co.id). The analyzedcompanieswere 84 (28x3) bankingcompanieslistedinIndonesianstoctexchangesince 2008-2010, andthe sampling methodusedinthisresearchwas purposive sampling. The hypothesis of thisresearchwas testedbydoubled linear regresion. The result of the testing thehypothesiswas shownthatcorporategovenance variable correlated with compositions of board of independent directors,the size of director boards, audit committee and the size of the company simultaneously didn’t correlate to the stoct exchange. Key words: Corporate Governance, Board of Independent Directors, The Size of Director Boards, Audit Committee, The Size of the Company, and Stoct Exchange. ABSTRAK Aimed this research was to investigate the effect of corporate govenance corelated with the Compositions of the board of independent directors, the size boards of directors, audit committee and the size of the company to profit happened in banking management company listed in Indoonesia stoct exchange. In this research, profit management was a Measured by acrual estimate ditected management models by Healy (1985). This Model was the development of prediction models with measuring acrual acrual estimate as the total acrual (Dechhow et al. 1995). The population of this research was all the banking companies listed in Indonesian Indonesian exchange stoct since 2008-2010. The data is of corporate govenance and profit management were got from the annual report, finance accounts of each company got from the legitimate site of Indonesian stoct axchange (www.idx.co.id). The Analyzed companies were 84 (28x3) companies listed in Indonesian banking stoct exchange since 2008 to 2010, and the sampling method used in this research was purposive sampling. The hypothesis of this research was tested by linear regresion doubled. The result of the testing of the hypothesis was shown that corporate govenance Compositions of variables correlated with an independent board of directors, the size boards of directors, audit committee and the size of the company simultaneously did not correlate to the stoct exchange. Key words: Corporate Governance, Board of Independent Directors, The Size of the Director Boards, Audit Committee, The Size of the Company, and Stoct Exchange.

MANIPULASI LABA SEBELUM DELISTING

This study aims to test earnings manipulation by the firm prior delist from the stock exchange in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. Manipulation of earnings used is accrual earnings management and calculate using discretionary accruals. The study found that forced delisted firms and voluntary delisted firms manipulate earnings by income decreasing. Income decreasing in forced delisted firms higher than income decreasing in voluntary delisted firms. Keywords: earnings management¸ delisting, forced delisted, voluntary delisted

FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KEBIJAKAN HUTANG DAN NILAI PERUSAHAAN: STUDI EMPIRIK PADA PERUSAHAAN SEKTOR NONJASA DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE 2007-2010

This study was conducted to examine the infl uence of factors of company size, business risk, liquidity(current ratio), and profi tability (return on assets / ROA) to the policy of debt (debt to asset / DTA) andenterprise value (price book value / PBV ) through empirical studies on non-service fi rms that go public onthe Stock Exchange Indonesia Year 2007-2010.The population in this study were 425 companies listed onthe Indonesia Stock Exchange in the period 2007-2010. Sampling technique used was purposive sampling,with the following criteria: (1) a company that is always present its fi nancial statements for 2007-2010, and(2) a company that is continuously distributed dividends every period 2007-2010. Data obtained from thepublication in the website Stock Exchange, namely www.idx.co.id. Thence obtained the sample of 108companies. Analytical technique used is the path analysis.The results showed that the size of the companyhave a positive and signifi cant impact on debt policy. Business risk has a negative but not signifi cant infl uenceon debt policy. Company’s liquidity (Current Ratio) has a negative and signifi cant impact on debt policy.Corporate profi tability has a negative and signifi cant impact on debt policy. Firm size has a signifi cant positiveeffect on fi rm value. Business risk has no signifi cant negative effect on fi rm value. Company’s liquidity (Currentratio) does not have a signifi cant infl uence on the value of the company. Corporate profi tability has a positiveand signifi cant impact on fi rm value. Debt policy does not signifi cantly infl uence the value of the company.Keywords: Current ratio, fi rm size, return on assets, Debt to Asset, Price Book Value.

P(I)DE APPROACH FOR INDONESIAN OPTIONS PRICING

Jakarta Stock Exchange Indonesia has started to trade Indonesian options at September 9th, 2004. An Indonesian option can be considered as an American style barrier option with immediate (forced) exercise if the price hits or crosses the barrier before maturity. The payoff of the option is based on a moving average of the price of the underlying stock. The barrier is fixed at the strike price plus or minus a 10 percent. The option is automatically exercised when the underlying stock hits or crosses the barrier and the difference between strike and barrier is paid immediately. We will refer to this type of option as an Indonesian option. In this paper we study the pricing of the Indonesian option under Black-Scholes model by PDE approach and under Variance Gamma model by PIDE approach.DOI :http://dx.doi.org/10.22342/jims.14.1.60.37-45

ANALISIS TINGKAT KESEHATAN KEUANGAN PERUSAHAAN ROKOK YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA (BEI)

The competitive advantages of the company’s are mainly determined by the performance. One important aspects of performance is financial aspects which are illustrated in financial statements. However, it is not enough to only assess the financial performance of companies. It required the analysis of financial statements to obtain the whole picture of company’s progress which is can be used by management or other users of financial statements to make decision making. The financial analysis in this research is used Z-Score to determine the company's financial performance more accurately and the health level of cigarettes companies in facing global competition and also dealing with the smoking ban regulations. The research was conducted on three tobacco companies that go public on the Stock Exchange Indonesia, that are PT Bentoel International Tbk., PT. Gudang Garam Tbk., PT. Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk. Z-Score results showed that PT Bentoel International Tbk in 2008 and 2009 had a poor financial performance and classified as highly vulnerable company, whereas in 2010 the company was in a good performance and healthy condition. Meanwhile, PT Gudang Garam Tbk from 2008, 2009 and 2010 is classified as healthy company. PT. Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk has a good financial performance and categorized as healthy company began in 2008, 2009 to 2010. To conclude, among the three tobacco companies that go public on the Stock Exchange Indonesia, PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk is a company that has the best financial performance and classified as a healthy company.

Peran Pecking Order, Keseimbangan dan Kebijakan Moneter untuk Keputusan Struktur Modal pada Perusahaan Go Publik BEJ periode 1991 – 2001

The research aimed at studying the effectiveness of pecking order, balanced and government monetary policy on financial decision on leverage conducted by industrial companies in Indonesia. The research population is statistical means of the company’s equity finance and debt finance. Purposive random sampling technique was applied to get the samples; they are, equity finance and debt finance of 92 industrial companies listed in Jakarta Stock Exchange from 1990 to 2001. The nature of the research data is secondary and pooled that consist of time series and cross sectional. Descriptive and inferential statistics are used to analyze the data. Multiple regression analysis is functioned to build the equation model and computed through the assistance of Eview 4.1. Results of statistical analysis explains that Adjusted R Squared (R 2 ) of pecking order, balanced, macro policy including the dummy variable of monetary crisis all in all and leverage is 88.75 and the degree of F statistics is 381.4542. There are twelve variables classified to be significant; nonetheless, the other seven variables are not significant in the regression model. On the significant level of 0.05, the model is signified with F probability of 0.000. One possible reason of monetary crisis is that the rupiah exchange rates were under the strong pressure of depreciation from the foreign currencies. The increase of country risk, volatile social and political condition in the country generated macro and micro economic condition with the boost of company financial risks. The crisis wrecked the economic indicators such as PDB, inflation, rate of bank interests, rupiah exchange rates, budget deficit, public investment, and indexes of trade and payment. Those negative indicators influenced negatively towards the growth of economic and stock exchange. The crisis pushed high leverage in the financial index of industrial companies that made them not performed or liquid; it also created low domestic gross investment that emitants got difficulties to collect funds from stock exchange. A lot of domestic or foreign investors left the Jakarta Stock Exchange. On that circumstance, the government is expected to push and move the economic wheels so as the stability can be achieved. Through economic stability the domestic and foreign investors get possibilities of investing their capital in stock exchange in Indonesia. BAPEPAM as a government intermediary institution must employ the Law of Stock Exchange Number 8 Year 1995 with full consistence and indifference so as both the emitants and investors are not necessarily hacked off.

PENEGAKAN HUKUM LINGKUNGAN DI BIDANG PERTAMBANGAN

The mining sector is still the main sector of the state foreign exchange Indonesia has a social dimension of culture, economy and environment. The Act No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal (Mining Act) provides a new understanding of the concept of a modern mining law after all this time mining regime for more than 42 years in Indonesia are subject to the Act No. 11 of 1967 on Basic Provisions of Mining. The new Mining Law emphasizes the spirit of transparency, partispatif and environmentally sound. Mining Act and UUPPLH are expected can go hand in hand in terms of law enforcement aspects of preventive and repressive in every stages of mining activities have the greatest environmental aspects of exploration and exploitation because the object is on land where mining activities are always so for the environmental effects of pollution and environmental destruction. Mining Act (UU Minerba) and Protection and Environmental Management Act (UUPPLH) are expected to be a wheel mining activities that are not only economically profitable for the society of Indonesia but also environmentally sustainable and support Indonesia DevelopmentKeywords : Environmental Law, Mining Law, Law Enforcement

Crises and the Volatility of Indonesian Macro-Indicators

This paper examines the volatility of some of Indonesian macroeconomic indicators, namely the Bank Indonesia rate, inflation, and exchange rates. It is argued that after the financial crisis the variability of these variables increases and this makes it more difficult to predict them. The estimated ARCH parameters increases overtime, indicating higher contribution of shock over several periods. From the random walk, historical mean, moving average and simple regression, it was found that the quality of prediction after the crisis decreases. Financial manager and other policy makers may adjust their strategy to account for this increase in variability.

Forcasting Portofolio Value-At-Risk for International Stocks, Bonds, and Foreign Exchange Emerging Market Evidence

This paper uncovers the nature of conditional correlations between and volatility spillovers across bond, stock and foreign exchange in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Using various multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models, it finds the evidence of highly persistence in the conditional variance, volatility spillovers across assets, and time-varying conditional correlations in all markets. It also provides Value-at-Risk forecast based on the estimated models. Assuming normal distribution, the tests suggest that incorporating volatility spillovers and time-varying conditional correlations does not help in providing Value-at-Risk forecasts. Assuming t distribution, the tests suggest that incorporating volatility spillovers provides better VaR forecasts. Keywords: conditional correlations, volatility spillovers, VaR forecast

Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga dan Inflasi terhadap Nilai Tukar Dollar Amerika (Pendekatan Model Linier Klasik, Autoregressive, dan Granger)

This research is empirically examined the factors fficting exchange rate. The examination will employ three models, namely, classical linier model, autoregressive, and granger. The data are drann from Indonesian monthly macro economics indicators, narnely, interest, inflation, and exchange rate. The data'is collected from 2005-2007. The empirical result of this research indicates that the most fficient model is Granger Causality Model. Moreover, the result also find that interest and inflation rate affect the exchanged rate.Keywords: Interest, inflation, exchange rate, classical linier model, autoregressiu.e, and granger causality model

Saving the Rupiah with a Currency Board for Indonesia

In the aftermath of the Asian crisis, Indonesia was subject to various IMF norms, many of which have been criticized by a large number of economists and policy makers. Indonesia's exchange rate management has been in turmoil ever since. Post 14th August 1997, when the Rupiah was floated, it has depreciated severely against the dollar. A year after the crisis, in 1998, Indonesia's desire to set up a currency board generated considerable debate among economists in the international community. Both the US and the IMF were firmly against the country's desire to establish a currency board. Even as of today, the Rupiah continues to slide against the dollar. In the face of this situation, the author attempts to examine the viability of a currency board in Indonesia. The author is of the view that Indonesia would benefit from a currency board, provided it is implemented in the correct manner, as has been defined in the paper. The Indonesian government of late seems to be doing a fairly decent job on both the fiscal and monetary front, as can be seen from the trends in inflation and fiscal deficit. However, the country's financial and legal frameworks are yet to mature, which can seriously restrain the development of a successful currency board.

Probing rhetorical structures of advanced learners' expository prose: A data-based approach

Logic, as the basis of rhetoric, always affects the way ideas, words, and evidence are assembled into one coherent structure. As rhetoric varies from culture to culture, it frequently brings about awkwardness, inappropriateness as well as immaturity of an expository prose if it does not meet the convention of organizational patterns and signals as expected by the readers having that rhetoric. A number of scholars have highlighted the importance and insights of contrastive rhetoric for the teaching of academic writing. This paper describes various rhetorical problems encountered by dozens of advanced Indonesian learners of English taking an academic writing class at AMINEF (American Indonesian Exchange Foundation) who plan to study in the USA. This paper concludes with the caveat that difficulties in adopting English rhetoric is not simply a linguistic problem but includes cultural understanding and awareness of its style. This paper offers insightful writing instructions to cope with the existing problems. Keywords : rhetoric, expository prose, contrastive rhetoric, rhetorical problems, AMINEF

Dampak Publikasi Pelaporan Keuangan Ganda Bank Lippo terhadap Harga Saham Perbankan di Bursa Efek Jakarta

This study is purposed to examine the influence of publication of the Lippo Bank dual financial reports to the stock prices reaction, by applying the event-study methodology to analyse the market reaction on the daily closing price of 24 stocks banks that listing in Jakarta Stock Exchange. The results of analysis (using t-test) show that the publication of the Lippo Bank dual financial reports has not given effects which is significantly influence the stock prices. It’s mean that applying financial reports principles have not been a fundamental driver stock exchange in Indonesia. Comparing the stock prices before and after the publication are not significantly different. This market reaction show that public have not capable enough to use the publication of the Lippo Bank dual financial reports as a signal (good or bad news) to evaluate the future prospect of the firm.

FAKTOR-FAKTOR FUNDAMENTAL MIKRO: PERTUMBUHAN AKTIVA, PERTUMBUHAN TINGKAT PENGEMBALIAN AKTIVA, RASIO UTANG, RASIO LANCAR, LABA BERSIH PER SAHAM, RASIO HARGA-LABA BERSIH PER SAHAM & HASIL (PENDAPATAN) SAHAM YANG BERPENGARUH TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM INDUSTRI MAKANAN & MINUMAN PADA BURSA EFEK DI INDONESIA

The population of this research is shares of the issuers (go public companies) in the food and beverage industry listed on the stock exchange in Indonesia. The research period is 4 years (from year 1998 to2001), and its sample consists of 10 shares of issuers in the industry of food and beverage. The sample was taken from 18 shares of issuers, with the implementation of purposive or non-random sampling technique. The capital market roles are so important, and therefore, ideally, the analysis with the focus on factors and on dominant factors influenced price of shares is really needed to be carried out through a detail research. Focus of this research is on the impact of micro fundamental factors towards price of shares of the food and beverage industry listed on the stock exchange in Indonesia, especially after economy and monetary crisis happened in 1997 in Indonesia. Variables studied in the research are price of shares, and asset growth, return on asset growth, debt ratio, current ratio, earning per share, price earning ratio, and also dividend yield. The source of data is secondary data obtained from the Surabaya and Jakarta Stock Exchanges, as well as Capital Market Reference Center. The model used for this research is multiple linier regressionanalysis model. Result of research concluded that the changes on price of shares of the food and beverage industry listed on the stock exchange in Indonesia were influenced simultaneously by asset growth, return on asset growth, debt ratio, current ratio, earning per share, price earning ratio, and dividend yield. Meanwhile, the changes on price of shares of the food and beverage industry listed on the stock exchange in Indonesia was influenced partially by only earning per share.

Real Effective Exchange Rate Determination in Indonesia: A Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Approach

The aim of this paper is to analyze the determination of real effective exchange rate in Indonesia for the period 1994.1-2004.6 using behavioral approach. The sets of funda¬mental variables consisting of net foreign asset, term of trade, ratio total trade to GDP, pri¬vate and government consumption were used to estimate for resulting estimation of behav¬ioral real effective exchange rate. The data was used in this study using time series monthly data from 1994.1 – 2004.6. The source of data were taken from International Financial Statistic and Central Bank of Indonesia. The method of analysis is multivariate cointegration methods of Johansen to determine the long run relationship real effective exchange rate. Exchange rate misalign¬ment was also used in this study by plotting the series between actual real effective exchange rate and the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate. The results of this study showed that from the estimation result of behavioral equi¬librium exchange rate, some variables of the sets fundamental variables such as net foreign asset, term of trade and ratio total trade to GDP were correctly signed, plausible magnitude and statistically significant. But, government and private consumption were not statistically significant and incorrectly signed. From the plotted result between actual and equilibrium estimation, it represents that for the period post-1997, the currency has been undervalued. The close alignment between actual and equilibrium was occurred in 1998 and 1999. But at the end of the sample, the currency looked overvalued. Keywords: Real effective exchange rate, Behavioral equilibrium approach, Cointegration

KEJAHATAN PASAR MODAL DALAM KERANGKA GOOD CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

There is always crime happened in every society, including in business community in Indonesia such as in stock exchange sector one of reason why it can happen is weak Good Corporate Governance application. In order knowing how to rule out criminal in stock exchange in Indonesia in term of Good Corporate Governance framework, the writer uses normative juridical approach so that it is known that stock exchange crime has been ruled out in Stock Exchange Law though not all of the principles included in it.