Evolutionary Population Dynamics Research Articles

Modeling viral evolution: A novel SIRSVIDE framework with application to SARS-CoV-2 dynamics

Understanding evolutionary trends in emerging viruses, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is crucial for effective public health management and response. Nonetheless, extensive debates have arisen concerning viral evolutionary trends, particularly the interplay between transmissibility, pathogenicity, and immune escape. In this context, we have developed a novel computational model named SIRSVIDE (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible-Variation-Immune Decay-Immune Escape) to simulate the transmission and evolutionary dynamics of viral populations. Our simulation results indicate that under conditions of high mutation rates, elevated transmission rates, and larger susceptible host populations, viral populations exhibit prolonged increases in transmissibility and immune escape, accompanied by reductions in pathogenicity and noticeable short-term fluctuations. However, when the total susceptible population size and mutation rate decrease, substantial uncertainty in the evolutionary trends of viral populations becomes apparent. In summary, the SIRSVIDE model establishes a comprehensive framework for generating both short- and long-term viral epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics. The simulation outcomes align with existing evidence indicating that SARS-CoV-2 is undergoing selection for heightened transmissibility, decreased pathogenicity, and enhanced immune escape. Furthermore, the model sheds light on the possible evolutionary dynamics of other viruses.

CBDA: Chaos-based binary dragonfly algorithm for evolutionary feature selection

The goal of feature selection in machine learning is to simultaneously maintain more classification accuracy, while reducing lager amount of attributes. In this paper, we firstly design a fitness function that achieves both objectives jointly. Then we come up with a chaos-based binary dragonfly algorithm (CBDA) that incorporates several improvements over the conventional dragonfly algorithm (DA) for developing a wrapper-based feature selection method to solve the fitness function. Specifically, the CBDA innovatively introduces three improved factors, namely the chaotic map, evolutionary population dynamics (EPD) mechanism, and binarization strategy on the basis of conventional DA to balance the exploitation and exploration capabilities of the algorithm and make it more suitable to handle the formulated problem. We conduct experiments on 24 well-known data sets from the UCI repository with three ablated versions of CBDA targeting different components of the algorithm in order to explain their contributions in CBDA and also with five established comparative algorithms in terms of fitness value, classification accuracy, CPU running time, and number of selected features. The results show that the proposed CBDA has remarkable advantages in most of the tested data sets.

Ameliorated Snake Optimizer-Based Approximate Merging of Disk Wang-Ball Curves.

A method for the approximate merging of disk Wang-Ball (DWB) curves based on the modified snake optimizer (BEESO) is proposed in this paper to address the problem of difficulties in the merging of DWB curves. By extending the approximate merging problem for traditional curves to disk curves and viewing it as an optimization problem, an approximate merging model is established to minimize the merging error through an error formulation. Considering the complexity of the model built, a BEESO with better convergence accuracy and convergence speed is introduced, which combines the snake optimizer (SO) and three strategies including bi-directional search, evolutionary population dynamics, and elite opposition-based learning. The merging results and merging errors of numerical examples demonstrate that BEESO is effective in solving approximate merging models, and it provides a new method for the compression and transfer of product shape data in Computer-Aided Geometric Design.

Genetic evidence for a single founding population of the Lakshadweep Islands.

Lakshadweep is an archipelago of 36 islands located in the Southeastern Arabian Sea. In the absence of a detailed archaeological record, the human settlement timing of this island is vague. Previous genetic studies on haploid DNA makers suggested sex-biased ancestry linked to North and South Indian populations. Maternal ancestry suggested a closer link with the Southern Indian, while paternal ancestry advocated the Northern Indian geneticaffinity. Since the haploid markers are more sensitive to genetic drift, which is evident for the Island populations, we have used the biparental high-resolution single-nucleotide polymorphic markers to reconstruct the population history of Lakshadweep Islands. Using the fine-scaled analyses, we specifically focused on (A) the ancestry components of Lakshadweep Islands populations; (B) their relation with East, West Eurasia and South Asia; (C) the number of founding lineages and (D) the putative migration from Northern India as the paternal ancestry was closer to the North Indian populations. Our analysis of ancestry components confirmed relatively higher North Indian ancestry among the Lakshadweep population. These populations are closely related to the South Asian populations. We identified mainlya single founding population for these Islands, geographically divided into two sub-clusters. By examining the population's genetic composition and analysing the gene flow from different source populations, this study contributes to our understanding of Lakshadweep Island's evolutionary history and population dynamics. These findings shed light on the complex interactions between ethnic groups and their genetic contributions in making the Lakshadweep population.

Spatial Population Structuring and Genetic Analysis of Exotic Grevillea robusta in Northwestern India

Abstract The introduction of exotics is common in forestry, and majorly important species, like eucalypts, poplar, and Casuarina sp., occupy vast areas in the Indian subcontinent. Importantly, with the latest cost-effective sequencing techniques, genetic diversity research through molecular marker approaches on major exotics provides novel information for genetic improvement in economic traits with climatic adaptation. The study was carried out on Grevillea robusta to assess genetic relatedness and diversity among 228 genotypes belonging to five northwestern states in India. These genotypes were assayed using twelve simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers. A population structure analysis using structure software identified four major gene pool subgroups with clear-cut differences from each other. Principal coordinate analysis also supports the clustering patterns of the unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean analysis. In the case of genetic diversity assessment, a total of seventy-three alleles were detected from twelve SSRs, with an average of 6.08 ± 0.71 per locus. Polymorphism information content ranged from 0.17 to 0.67 with a mean of 0.44 ± 0.045, indicating high levels of polymorphism across the genotypes. All the evaluated SSRs demonstrated moderate genetic diversity (observed heterozygosity = 0.31 ± 0.03; expected heterozygosity = 0.32 ± 0.03; and genetic differentiation = 0.295) among the sampled genotypes. These findings indicate significant genetic variability in the germplasm to warrant selection and have potential for a long-term tree improvement program of G. robusta in India. Study Implications: The study on population genetics of Grevillea robusta in exotic environments assessed probable gene pools, provenances, and genetic diversity in geographical distribution range of the species in the Indian scenario. The basic population genetic measures revealed the high diversity areas and probable seed zones of G. robusta in its exotic range. Importantly, the study will be helpful in the selection of candidate plus trees of G. robusta to further strengthen the genotype × environment interaction study for future breeding programs. Further, studying the genetic makeup for moderately diverse species offers valuable insights into evolutionary history, population dynamics, and ecological interactions, which may lead to conservation efforts and guidance for the management of trees such as G. robusta in their native and introduced regions.

Campylobacter prophage diversity reveals pervasive recombination between prophages from different Campylobacter species.

Prophages play an important role in shaping the genetic diversity and evolution of their hosts. Acquisition or loss of prophages can lead to genomic variations, including changes in the bacterial phenotype promoted by recombination events, genetic repertoire exchanges and dissemination of virulence factors, and antibiotic resistance. By studying prophages in Campylobacter species, scientists can gain insights into the evolutionary patterns, pathogenicity mechanisms, epidemiology, and population dynamics of these species. This has implications for public health, antibiotic resistance surveillance, and the development of targeted therapeutic approaches.

Assessment of genetic diversity of Trypanosoma evansi in the domestic animal populations through ITS-1 gene sequence analysis.

Trypanosoma evansi infects domestic animals, causing a debilitating and occasionally fatal disease. The disease leads to significant economic losses to farmers and poses a substantial impediment to the growth of livestock production in developing nations, including India. Considering the challenges associated with managing this infection, there is an urgent need to enhance our understanding of the molecular and genetic diversity of T. evansi. Therefore, this study was planned to analyze the genetic diversity of T. evansi using available internal transcribed spacer-1 (ITS-1) gene sequences from India and compare them with sequences from around the globe. Blood samples used in this study were collected from naturally infected animals including dogs, cattle, and buffaloes in the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh. Using the ITS-1 gene, we amplified a 540 base pairs (bp) segment using polymerase chain reaction (PCR), sequenced it, and identified intra-specific variations. Phylogenetic analysis of 90 sequences, including 27 from India, revealed three distinct clusters with high bootstrap support values. A haplotype network analysis identified 34 haplotypes, with H7 being the most prevalent, indicating a complex evolutionary history involving multiple countries. The genetic analysis of the Indian population revealed distinct characteristics. Despite low nucleotide diversity, there was high haplotype diversity in comparison to other populations. Tajima's D, Fu and Li's D, and Fu and Li's F exhibited non-significant negative values, indicating potential stability. Additionally, the slightly positive values in Fu's Fs, Raggedness (r), and Ramos-Onsins and Rozas (R2) statistics suggested a lack of recent significant selective pressures or population expansions. Furthermore, the presence of genetic differentiation and gene flow among T. evansi populations highlighted ongoing evolutionary processes. These findings collectively depicted a complex genetic landscape, suggesting both stability and ongoing evolutionary dynamics within the Indian population of T. evansi. The findings of this study are important for understanding the evolutionary history and population dynamics of T. evansi, and they may help us develop effective control strategies.

Disentangling the contemporary and historical effects of landscape on the population genomic variation of two bird species restricted to the highland forest enclaves of northeastern Brazil.

Investigating the impact of landscape features on patterns of genetic variation is crucial to understand spatially dependent evolutionary processes. Here, we assess the population genomic variation of two bird species (Conopophaga cearae and Sclerurus cearensis) through the Caatinga moist forest enclaves in northeastern Brazil. To infer the evolutionary dynamics of bird populations through the Late Quaternary, we used genome-wide polymorphism data obtained from double-digestion restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing (ddRADseq), and integrated population structure analyses, historical demography models, paleodistribution modeling, and landscape genetics analyses. We found the population differentiation among enclaves to be significantly related to the geographic distance and historical resistance across the rugged landscape. The climate changes at the end of the Pleistocene to the Holocene likely triggered synchronic population decline in all enclaves for both species. Our findings revealed that both geographic distance and historical connectivity through highlands are important factors that can explain the current patterns of genetic variation. Our results further suggest that levels of population differentiation and connectivity cannot be explained purely on the basis of contemporary environmental conditions. By combining historical demographic analyses and niche modeling predictions in a historical framework, we provide strong evidence that climate fluctuations of the Quaternary promoted population differentiation and a high degree of temporal synchrony among population size changes in both species.

Gene Selection for High-Dimensional Imbalanced Biomedical Data Based on Marine Predators Algorithm and Evolutionary Population Dynamics

Gene Selection for High-Dimensional Imbalanced Biomedical Data Based on Marine Predators Algorithm and Evolutionary Population Dynamics

Evidence of introgression, ecological divergence and adaptation in Asterias sea stars.

Hybrid zones are important windows into the evolutionary dynamics of populations, revealing how processes like introgression and adaptation structure population genomic variation. Importantly, they are useful for understanding speciation and how species respond to their environments. Here, we investigate two closely related sea star species, Asterias rubens and A. forbesi, distributed along rocky European and North American coastlines of the North Atlantic, and use genome-wide molecular markers to infer the distribution of genomic variation within and between species in this group. Using genomic data and environmental niche modelling, we document hybridization occurring between northern New England and the southern Canadian Maritimes. We investigate the factors that maintain this hybrid zone, as well as the environmental variables that putatively drive selection within and between species. We find that the two species differ in their environmental niche breadth; Asterias forbesi displays a relatively narrow environmental niche while conversely, A. rubens has a wider niche breadth. Species distribution models accurately predict hybrids to occur within environmental niche overlap, thereby suggesting environmental selection plays an important role in the maintenance of the hybrid zone. Our results imply that the distribution of genomic variation in North Atlantic sea stars is influenced by the environment, which will be crucial to consider as the climate changes.

Genomic diversity and biogeographic distributions of a novel lineage of bacteriophages that infect marine OM43 bacteria.

The marine methylotrophic OM43 clade is considered an important bacterial group in coastal microbial communities. OM43 bacteria, which are closely related to phytoplankton blooms, have small cell sizes and streamlined genomes. Bacteriophages profoundly shape the evolutionary trajectories, population dynamics, and physiology of microbes. The prevalence and diversity of several phages that infect OM43 bacteria have been reported. In this study, we isolated and sequenced two novel OM43 phages, MEP401 and MEP402. These phages share 90% of their open reading frames (ORFs) and are distinct from other known phage isolates. Furthermore, a total of 99 metagenomic viral genomes (MVGs) closely related to MEP401 and MEP402 were identified. Phylogenomic analyses suggest that MEP401, MEP402, and these identified MVGs belong to a novel subfamily in the family Zobellviridae and that they can be separated into two groups. Group I MVGs show conserved whole-genome synteny with MEP401, while group II MVGs possess the MEP401-type DNA replication module and a distinct type of morphogenesis and packaging module, suggesting that genomic recombination occurred between phages. Most members in these two groups were predicted to infect OM43 bacteria. Metagenomic read-mapping analysis revealed that the phages in these two groups are globally ubiquitous and display distinct biogeographic distributions, with some phages being predominant in cold regions, some exclusively detected in estuarine stations, and others displaying wider distributions. This study expands our knowledge of the diversity and ecology of a novel phage lineage that infects OM43 bacteria by describing their genomic diversity and global distribution patterns. IMPORTANCE OM43 phages that infect marine OM43 bacteria are important for host mortality, community structure, and physiological functions. In this study, two OM43 phages were isolated and characterized. Metagenomic viral genome (MVG) retrieval using these two OM43 phages as baits led to the identification of two phage groups of a new subfamily in the family Zobellviridae. We found that group I MVGs share similar genomic content and arrangement with MEP401 and MEP402, whereas group II MVGs only possess the MEP401-type DNA replication module. Metagenomic mapping analysis suggests that members in these two groups are globally ubiquitous with distinct distribution patterns. This study provides important insights into the genomic diversity and biogeography of the OM43 phages in the global ocean.

Forward hysteresis and Hopf bifurcation in an Npzd model with application to harmful algal blooms.

Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) models, describing the interactions between phytoplankton, zooplankton systems, and their ecosystem, are used to predict their ecological and evolutionary population dynamics. These organisms form the base two trophic levels of aquatic ecosystems. Hence understanding their population dynamics and how disturbances can affect these systems is crucial. Here, starting from a base NPZ modeling framework, we incorporate the harmful effects of phytoplankton overpopulation on zooplankton-representing a crucial next step in harmful algal bloom (HAB) modeling-and split the nutrient compartment to formulate an NPZD model. We then mathematically analyze the NPZ system upon which this new model is based, including local and global stability of equilibria, Hopf bifurcation condition, and forward hysteresis, where the bi-stability occurs with multiple attractors. Finally, we extend the threshold analysis to the NPZD model, which displays both forward hysteresis with bi-stability and Hopf bifurcation under different parameter regimes. We also examine ecological implications after incorporating seasonality and ecological disturbances. Ultimately, we quantify ecosystem health in terms of the relative values of the robust persistence thresholds for phytoplankton and zooplankton and find (i) ecosystems sufficiently favoring phytoplankton, as quantified by the relative values of the plankton persistence numbers, are vulnerable to both HABs and (local) zooplankton extinction (ii) even healthy ecosystems are extremely sensitive to nutrient depletion over relatively short time scales.

Genetic Structure and TALome Analysis Highlight a High Level of Diversity in Burkinabe Xanthomonas Oryzae pv. oryzae Populations

Bacterial Leaf Blight of rice (BLB) caused by Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae (Xoo) is a major threat for food security in many rice growing countries including Burkina Faso, where the disease was first reported in the 1980’s. In line with the intensification of rice cultivation in West-Africa, BLB incidence has been rising for the last 15 years. West-African strains of Xoo differ from their Asian counterparts as they (i) are genetically distant, (ii) belong to new races and, (iii) contain reduced repertoires of Transcription Activator Like (TAL) effector genes. In order to investigate the evolutionary dynamics of Xoo populations in Burkina Faso, 177 strains were collected from 2003 to 2018 in three regions where BLB is occurring. Multilocus VNTR Analysis (MLVA-14) targeting 10 polymorphic loci discriminated 24 haplotypes and showed that Xoo populations were structured according to their geographical localization and year of collection. Considering their major role in Xoo pathogenicity, we assessed the TAL effector repertoires of the 177 strains upon RFLP-based profiling. Surprisingly, an important diversity was revealed with up to eight different RFLP patterns. Finally, comparing neutral vs. tal effector gene diversity allowed to suggest scenarios underlying the evolutionary dynamics of Xoo populations in Burkina Faso, which is key to rationally guide the deployment of durably resistant rice varieties against BLB in the country.

Molecular investigation of bovine tropical theileriosis outbreak in an organized dairy cattle farm in Madhya Pradesh, India.

The present study aimed to investigate an outbreak of Theileria annulata (T. annulata) infection in an organized dairy cattle farm in Madhya Pradesh, India, using clinical and molecular techniques. Following the deaths of two crossbred cattle in March 2021, 43 blood samples were collected from infected and apparently healthy animals and examined by blood smear and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) techniques. The blood smear examination showed that 23.25% of samples were positive for Theileria organisms, while conventional PCR targeting the 18S ribosomal RNA (18S rRNA) and T. annulata merozoite surface antigen-1 (TAMS-1) genes revealed that 32.55% of samples were positive for T. annulata. PCR targeting cytochrome b (Cytb) gene showed 46.51% of samples were positive for T. annulata. Haematological analysis confirmed clinical signs of infection in affected animals, which were treated with buparvaquone @ 2.5mg/kg body weight intramuscularly along with supportive medicine. Two 18S rRNA gene amplicons were sequenced and analysed in a phylogenetic tree and haplotype network with 54 Indian and 38 foreign sequences. The phylogenetic tree revealed two groups with a high posterior probability and bootstrap value, while the haplotype network revealed 35 haplotypes, with haplotype 1 (H1) being the most abundant and several single haplotypes clustering around it, indicating fast and widespread expansion. Genetic diversity indices and neutrality tests confirmed that the population was expanding. These studies highlight the significance of prompt and precise diagnosis and management of T. annulata outbreaks and provide insights into its evolutionary history and population dynamics of T. annulata in India, which could aid improving disease preventive and control strategies.

Ancient Mitogenomes Reveal Stable Genetic Continuity of the Holocene Serows.

As one of the remaining species of Caprinae only found in Asia, serows (Capricornis) and their classification and conservation have received increasing attention in recent years. However, their evolutionary history and population dynamics are not yet clear. To shed light on these topics, we report the first near-complete ancient mitochondrial genomes from two serow sub-fossils (CADG839 and CADG946) dating to 8860 ± 30 years and 2450 ± 30 years, and incorporate the newly obtained mitogenomes into the dataset of living serows (18 complete mitochondrial genomes drawn from National Center for Biotechnology Information, NCBI) to investigate their relationships and evolution. Phylogenetic results support four clades of serows that can be further divided into five subclades, indicating higher genetic diversity than previously thought. Notably, our two ancient samples do not form a separate branch but belong to Capricornis sumatraensis clade A together with modern individuals, which suggests genetic continuity between ancient and modern serows. Furthermore, our results suggest that the maternal divergences of serows occurred at the beginning of the Pleistocene. Bayesian estimation indicates that the first divergence among all serows happened approximately 2.37 Ma (95% highest posterior density, HPD: 2.74-2.02 Ma) when Japanese serow (Capricornis crispus) appeared, while the last divergence occurred within the Sumatran serow (C. sumatraensis clade A and B) around 0.37-0.25 Ma. Additionally, we found the effective maternal population size of C. sumatraensis increased around 225-160 and 90-50 ka, then remained stable since 50 ka. Overall, our study provides new insights into serow phylogeny and evolutionary history.

Molecular Evidence for the Presence of Wisteria Vein Mosaic Virus in Italy: Shedding Light on Genetic Diversity and Evolutionary Dynamics of Virus Geographic Populations

Wisteria vein mosaic virus (WVMV) is a member of the genus Potyvirus, found to be associated with the Wisteria mosaic disease (WMD). In 2022, severe symptoms resembling WMD were observed on the foliage of a Chinese wisteria (Wisteria sinensis) tree growing in Apulia (Italy). The presence of WVMV was ascertained by RT-PCR using the universal degenerate primers NIb2F/NIb3R in the NIb gene. Next, we derived the complete sequence of the CP gene. MAFFT pairwise alignment of the two target regions showed a high amino acid sequence identity of isolate Bari with other WVMV isolates, confirming they belonged to the same species. NIb phylogenetic analysis placed WVMV Bari within the lineage identified in the genus Potyvirus as the bean common mosaic virus supergroup. Closer analysis based on the CP gene showed that WVMV Bari was part of a sub-clade gathering all WVMV isolates within a larger clade clustering closely related species. An exploratory analysis of the genetic diversity and possible mechanisms underlying the evolution of geographic populations of WVMV was attempted. The analysis was based on the N-terminal coding region of CP, available for 20 isolates from Europe, Asia, and Oceania. A high diversity, mainly found in the European population, led to the identification of 16 different haplotypes. Based on the dN/dS ratio, the target region appears to be under negative selective pressure. Neutrality tests indicated a potential population expansion in Europe and a recent decrease in Asia. The two populations exhibited a high level of gene flow. We found that WVMV Bari may have originated from a recombination event in the NIb gene. To date, the presence of WVMV had never been reported on W. sinensis in Italy, and no molecular information was available on any Italian isolate. Our report draws attention to the further spread of WVMV in the European territory and its rising threat to the ornamental nursery sector.

Endemicity and diversification of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii in an intensive care unit

Carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) is a major public health concern globally. Often studied in the context of hospital outbreaks, little is known about the persistence and evolutionary dynamics of endemic CRAB populations. A three-month cross-sectional observational study was conducted in a 28-bed intensive care unit (ICU) in Hangzhou, China. A total of 5068 samples were collected from the hospital environment (n=3985), patients (n=964) and staff (n=119). CRAB isolates were obtained from 10.5% of these samples (n=532). All of these isolates, plus an additional 19 from clinical infections, were characterised through whole-genome sequencing. The ICU CRAB population was dominated by OXA-23-producing global clone 2 isolates (99.3% of all isolates) that could be divided into 20 distinct clusters, defined through genome sequencing. CRAB was persistently present in the ICU, driven by regular introductions of distinct clusters. The hospital environment was heavily contaminated, with CRAB isolated from bed units on 183/335 (54.6%) sampling occasions but from patients on only 72/299 (24.1%) occasions. CRAB was spread to adjacent bed units and rooms, and following re-location of patients within the ICU. We also observed three horizontal gene transfer events between CRAB strains in the ICU, involving three different plasmids. The epidemiology of CRAB in this setting contrasted with previously described clonal outbreaks in high-income countries, highlighting the importance of environmental CRAB reservoirs in ICU epidemiology and the unique challenges in containing the spread of CRAB in ICUs where this important multidrug-resistant pathogen is endemic. This work was undertaken as part of the DETECTIVE research project funded by the Medical Research Council (MR/S013660/1), National Natural Science Foundation of China (81861138054, 32011530116, 31970128, 31770142), Zhejiang Province Medical Platform Backbone Talent Plan (2020RC075), and the National Key Research and Development Program of China grant (2018YFE0102100). W.v.S was also supported by a Wolfson Research Merit Award (WM160092).

Experimental evolution of dispersal: Unifying theory, experiments and natural systems.

Dispersal is a central life history trait that affects the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of populations and communities. The recent use of experimental evolution for the study of dispersal is a promising avenue for demonstrating valuable proofs of concept, bringing insight into alternative dispersal strategies and trade-offs, and testing the repeatability of evolutionary outcomes. Practical constraints restrict experimental evolution studies of dispersal to a set of typically small, short-lived organisms reared in artificial laboratory conditions. Here, we argue that despite these restrictions, inferences from these studies can reinforce links between theoretical predictions and empirical observations and advance our understanding of the eco-evolutionary consequences of dispersal. We illustrate how applying an integrative framework of theory, experimental evolution and natural systems can improve our understanding of dispersal evolution under more complex and realistic biological scenarios, such as the role of biotic interactions and complex dispersal syndromes.

Abstract 6625: Mathematical modeling of single-cell data reveals the key role of stochasticity - not fitness - in determining the clonal origins of relapse in childhood leukemia

Abstract Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (cALL) is the most common pediatric cancer, and since up to 20% of children relapse after initially responding to chemotherapy treatment, the largest cause of cancer-related childhood deaths in the western world. With the idea that dissecting the evolutionary population dynamics leading to relapse would help explain treatment failure from a mechanistic standpoint, several studies have performed comparisons of genetic heterogeneity at diagnosis and relapse. These showed that as many as 70% of relapses are dominated by a single diagnostic subclone or one of its evolutionary progeny; leading to the prevailing view that treatment selection in cALL primarily operates at the genotype level. However, a crucial caveat of these studies is their reliance, due primarily to technical and economic constraints, on very limited data timepoints. While the dynamics linking said timepoints are often interpreted based on simple intuition. To overcome this sparse data challenge and reconstruct the entire spatial and temporal evolutionary trajectories of individual cALL cells from diagnosis to relapse, we have integrated experimental data with an in silico model. Single-cell WGS and RNAseq data were obtained from primary and xenografted leukemic cells before and after chemotherapy. These were then used to parameterize an agent-based mathematical model allowing tracking of the genotype and evolving phenotype of individual cells over time. When short treatment courses akin to those we delivered in vivo were used, the in silico model closely recapitulated the experimental results. Since cALL treatment lasts several years, it cannot be entirely modelled in vivo. Due to the rarity of post-treatment residual cells and the lack of universal cell surface markers to isolate them, direct analysis of clinical samples is also challenging. However, based on the initial treatment data, our calibrated model provided a unique opportunity to simulate longer remission-relapse dynamics of several leukemias. Mechanistic analysis of the collected data showed that, strikingly, in most cases, clonal dominance at relapse results from stochastic sweeps rather than deterministic differences in clonal fitness. Indeed, independent treatment of the same leukemia with an identical drug regimen more frequently ended with a considerably different clonal landscape (either polyclonal disease or a different dominant clone) than with the same outcome initially observed. Rather than genotype differences, the size of residual disease and a founder effect linked to the stochastic exit, post-treatment, of individual cells from quiescence were the key determinants of the relapse genetic landscape. Altogether, our data highlight the misinterpretation risk associated with snapshot analysis and might inform promising alternative treatment schedules. Citation Format: Virginia Turati, Javier Herrero, Mark Robertson-Tessi, Tariq Enver, Andriy Marusyk, Alexander RA Anderson. Mathematical modeling of single-cell data reveals the key role of stochasticity - not fitness - in determining the clonal origins of relapse in childhood leukemia [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2023; Part 1 (Regular and Invited Abstracts); 2023 Apr 14-19; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(7_Suppl):Abstract nr 6625.

Evolution of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A virus in the central nervous system of ferrets.

Central nervous system (CNS) disease is the most common extra-respiratory tract complication of influenza A virus infections in humans. Remarkably, zoonotic highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus infections are more often associated with CNS disease than infections with seasonal influenza viruses. Evolution of avian influenza viruses has been extensively studied in the context of respiratory infections, but evolutionary processes in CNS infections remain poorly understood. We have previously observed that the ability of HPAI A/Indonesia/5/2005 (H5N1) virus to replicate in and spread throughout the CNS varies widely between individual ferrets. Based on these observations, we sought to understand the impact of entrance into and replication within the CNS on the evolutionary dynamics of virus populations. First, we identified and characterized three substitutions-PB1 E177G and A652T and NP I119M - detected in the CNS of a ferret infected with influenza A/Indonesia/5/2005 (H5N1) virus that developed a severe meningo-encephalitis. We found that some of these substitutions, individually or collectively, resulted in increased polymerase activity in vitro. Nevertheless, in vivo, the virus bearing the CNS-associated mutations retained its capacity to infect the CNS but showed reduced dispersion to other anatomical sites. Analyses of viral diversity in the nasal turbinate and olfactory bulb revealed the lack of a genetic bottleneck acting on virus populations accessing the CNS via this route. Furthermore, virus populations bearing the CNS-associated mutations showed signs of positive selection in the brainstem. These features of dispersion to the CNS are consistent with the action of selective processes, underlining the potential for H5N1 viruses to adapt to the CNS.