Evolution Of Interest Rates Research Articles

Does macro-prudential regulation lead to low interest rate? An empirical analysis based on the transnational panel model

Based on a simple theoretical analysis, this paper constructs a transnational panel model based on the macroeconomic variable data of 131 countries from 2007 to 2020 for empirical analysis, so as to systematically explore the potential impact of macro-prudential policy regulation on the evolution of interest rates. It is found that the nominal interest rate of developed economies is closer to the lower bound of interest rate than that of underdeveloped economies, and the implementation of macro-prudential policies in the world generally shows a tightening trend, and the tightening degree of macro-prudential policies in developed economies is higher. Macro-prudential regulation has significantly exacerbated the evolution of global low interest rates, but the interest rate evolution of different types of economies is heterogeneous under the influence of macro-prudential regulation, especially in developed economies. Based on these insights, the paper proposes several policy recommendations: firstly, strengthen the precision of the implementation of macro-prudential policies to avoid “one-size-fits-all” policy implementation; secondly, refine macro-prudential policy regulation to be more scientific and prevent policy overshoots that could inadvertently harm the real economy; thirdly, attach great importance to the potential constraints of the low interest rate environment, and use diversified means to get rid of the lower bound of the nominal interest rate.

Fixed vs. adjustable-rate mortgages and attention

The aim of this paper is to analyze the attention of households to fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage loans depending on the evolution of interest rates. We hypothesize that a high level of general interest rates would lead to a higher attention to adjustable-rate mortgages. Using Google Trends tool to capture this attention, we demonstrate using VAR models that upsurges in interest rates precede a larger attention on Google searches related to adjustable-rate mortgages, but not for fixed-rate mortgages.

Numerical approximation of a hybrid Poisson-jump Ait-Sahalia-type interest rate model with delay

. While the original Ait-Sahalia interest rate model has been found to be of considerable use for describing the time-series evolution of interest rates, it may not possess adequate specifications to explain the responses of interest rates to empirical phenomena such as volatility skew-smile effect, jumps, market regulatory lapses, economic crises, financial clashes, and political instability, among others collectively. In this article, we propose a modified version of this model by incorporating additional features to help collectively describe these empirical phenomena adequately. Since the proposed model does not have a closed-form formula, we construct new techniques of the truncated EM method to study it and justify the method within a Monte Carlo framework to compute some financial quantities.

Assessment of algerian interbank interest rate through extreme value theory

This article tries to examine the evolution of interest rates in the Algerian interbank money market which focuses on the behavior of extreme. Empirical results illustrate that data are not distributed normally, exhibiting that their distribution is fat tails. Applying the GEV method on the maxima shows that the distribution law of the maxima changes over time due to the non-stationary data. Subsequent investigations suggest two subsample periods. The first period characterized by a deterioration of the liquidity of Algerian banks following the collapse of oil prices (1997-2000), the distribution law obtained is the law of Fréchet, but during the period characterized by an excess liquidity of the banks resulted from the increase in oil prices (2002-2013), the distribution law found is that of Weibull which is right bounded.

A predictive maintenance policy considering the market price volatility for deteriorating systems

In reality, under the impacts of market dynamism and uncertainty, various input costs of maintenance optimization programs such as spare part cost strongly fluctuate over time. This paper aims at introducing the market price volatility (fluctuation) into the predictive maintenance optimization framework. To this end, we first adopt a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process to describe the evolution of interest rates and a log-diffusion process to model fluctuating maintenance costs. An adapted predictive maintenance policy is then proposed. According to the policy, maintenance decisions are made based on the predictive information about both the system health state and the price volatility level. The consideration of price volatility helps to reduce the negative impacts of the cost fluctuation on the maintenance decision-making, but it makes the evaluation of maintenance performance more complex. To overcome this issue, an analytical solution is developed based on the semi-regenerative properties of the maintained system. Finally, different theoretical and numerical studies confirm the necessity of taking into account the price volatility and the effectiveness of the proposed policy.

Bank Coordination and Monetary Transmission: Evidence from India

We propose a new channel for the transmission of monetary policy shocks, the coordination channel. We develop a New Keynesian model in which bank lending is strategically complementary. Banks do not observe the distribution of loans but infer it using Gaussian signals. Under this paradigm, expectations of tighter credit conditions reduce banks’ lending response to monetary shocks. As a result, lack of coordination and information about other banks’ actions dampen monetary transmission. We test these predictions by constructing a dataset that links the evolution of interest rates to firms’ bank credit relationships in India. Consistent with our model, we find that the cross-sectional mean and dispersion of lending rates, which capture the expected value and the precision of the signals of credit extended by other banks, are significant predictors of monetary transmission. Our quantitative results suggest that lending complementarities reduce monetary transmission to inflation and output by about a third.

Potential impacts of COVID‐19 on Canadian farmland markets

AbstractEvidence from the past 50 years suggests that changes in Canadian farmland values are influenced by farming returns, real interest rates, and exchange rates. Residential and commercial development also affects the value of farmland close to major urban centers. The COVID‐19 economic shutdown is expected to reduce crop and livestock returns, which will put downward pressure on farmland values. The magnitude of this downward pressure will depend on the extent and the length of the recession. The evolution of interest rates over the next months and years could have a significant impact on farmland values. Historically, low real interest rates have coincided with higher farmland values, whereas high real interest rates have caused significant reductions in farmland values. The development value of farmland close to major cities could be negatively impacted by a sharp downturn in residential and commercial property markets.

Efficient Model Points Selection in Insurance by Parallel Global Optimization Using Multi CPU and Multi GPU

In the insurance sector, Asset Liability Management refers to the joint management of the assets and liabilities of a company. The liabilities mainly consist of the policies portfolios of the insurance company, which usually contain a large amount of policies. In the article, the authors mainly develop a highly efficient automatic generation of model points portfolios to represent much larger real policies portfolios. The obtained model points portfolio must retain the market risk properties of the initial portfolio. For this purpose, the authors propose a risk measure that incorporates the uncertain evolution of interest rates to the portfolios of life insurance policies, following Ferri (Optimal model points portfolio in life, 2019, arXiv:1808.00866). This problem can be formulated as a minimization problem that has to be solved using global numerical optimization algorithms. The cost functional measures an appropriate distance between the original and the model point portfolios. In order to solve this problem in a reasonable computing time, sequential implementations become prohibitive, so that the authors speed up the computations by developing a high performance computing framework that uses hybrid architectures, which consist of multi CPUs together with accelerators (multi GPUs). Thus, in graphic processor units (GPUs) the evaluation of the cost function is parallelized, which requires a Monte Carlo method. For the optimization problem, the authors compare a metaheuristic stochastic differential evolution algorithm with a multi path variant of hybrid global optimization Basin Hopping algorithms, which combines Simulated Annealing with gradient local searchers (Ferreiro et al. in Appl Math Comput 356:282–298, 2019a). Both global optimizers are parallelized in a multi CPU together with a multi GPU setting.

A new approach to forecast market interest rates through the CIR model

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to suggest a new framework that we call the CIR#, which allows forecasting interest rates from observed financial market data even when rates are negative. In doing so, we have the objective is to maintain the market volatility structure as well as the analytical tractability of the original CIR model.Design/methodology/approachThe novelty of the proposed methodology consists in using the CIR model to forecast the evolution of interest rates by an appropriate partitioning of the data sample and calibration. The latter is performed by replacing the standard Brownian motion process in the random term of the model with normally distributed standardized residuals of the “optimal” autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.FindingsThe suggested model is quite powerful for the following reasons. First, the historical market data sample is partitioned into sub-groups to capture all the statistically significant changes of variance in the interest rates. An appropriate translation of market rates to positive values was included in the procedure to overcome the issue of negative/near-to-zero values. Second, this study has introduced a new way of calibrating the CIR model parameters to each sub-group partitioning the actual historical data. The standard Brownian motion process in the random part of the model is replaced with normally distributed standardized residuals of the “optimal” ARIMA model suitably chosen for each sub-group. As a result, exact CIR fitted values to the observed market data are calculated and the computational cost of the numerical procedure is considerably reduced. Third, this work shows that the CIR model is efficient and able to follow very closely the structure of market interest rates (especially for short maturities that, notoriously, are very difficult to handle) and to predict future interest rates better than the original CIR model. As a measure of goodness of fit, this study obtained high values of the statistics R2 and small values of the root of the mean square error for each sub-group and the entire data sample.Research limitations/implicationsA limitation is related to the specific dataset as we are examining the period around the 2008 financial crisis for about 5 years and by using monthly data. Future research will show the predictive power of the model by extending the dataset in terms of frequency and size.Practical implicationsImproved ability to model/forecast interest rates.Originality/valueThe original value consists in turning the CIR from modeling instantaneous spot rates to forecasting any rate of the yield curve.

A model of the federal funds market: Yesterday, today, and tomorrow

The landscape of the federal funds market changed drastically in the wake of the Great Recession as large-scale asset purchase programs left depository institutions awash with reserves, and new regulations made it more costly for these institutions to lend. As traditional levers for implementing monetary policy became less effective, the Federal Reserve introduced new tools to implement the target range for the federal funds rate, changing this landscape even more. In this paper, we develop a model that is capable of reproducing the main features of the federal funds market, as observed before and after 2008, in a single, unified framework. We use this model to quantitatively evaluate the evolution of interest rates and trading volume in the federal funds market as the supply of aggregate reserves shrinks. We find that these outcomes are highly sensitive to the dynamics of the distribution of reserves across banks.

An asset -- liability management stochastic program of a leasing company

We build a multi-stage stochastic program of an asset-liability management problem of a leasing company, analyse model results and present a stress-testing methodology suited for financial applications. At the beginning, the business model of such a company is formulated. We introduce three various risk constraints, namely the chance constraint, the Value-at-Risk constraint and the conditional Value-at-Risk constraint along with the second-order stochastic dominance constraint, which are applied to the model to control risk of the optimal strategy. We also present the structure and the generation process of our scenarios. To capture the evolution of interest rates the Hull-White model is used. Thereafter, results of the model and the effect of the risk constraints on the optimal decisions are thoroughly investigated. In the final part, the performance of the optimal solutions of the problems for unconsidered and unfavourable crisis scenarios is inspected. The methodology of a stress test we used was proposed in such a way that it answers typical questions asked by asset-liability managers.

Real-World Scenarios With Negative Interest Rates Based on the LIBOR Market Model

ABSTRACTIn this article, we present a methodology to simulate the evolution of interest rates under real-world probability measure. More precisely, using the multidimensional Shifted Lognormal LIBOR market model and a specification of the market price of risk vector process, we explain how to perform simulations of the real-world forward rates in the future, using the Euler‒Maruyama scheme with a predictor‒corrector strategy. The proposed methodology allows for the presence of negative interest rates as currently observed in the markets.

Interest Rate Risk of Non-Maturity Bank Accounts: From the Marketing to the Hedging Strategy

We present a coherent management framework for non-maturity accounts to derive the hedging strategy from the marketing strategy to generate stable net interest income. Our framework consists of three building blocks: (1) a discrete-time dynamic term structure model for the evolution of interest rates, (2) an ordinal logistic regression for the bank's pricing behaviour, (3) an autoregressive process with external variables for the customers' withdrawal and prepayment behaviour. All blocks are based on the same periodic frequency. Hence, we can easily put them together for valuation under various interest rate and marketing assumptions and to build the dynamic hedging strategy.

A Model of the Federal Funds Market: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow

The landscape of the federal funds market changed drastically in the wake of the Great Recession as large-scale asset purchase programs left depository institutions awash with reserves, and new regulations made it more costly for these institutions to lend. As traditional levers for implementing monetary policy became less effective, the Federal Reserve introduced new tools to implement the target range for the federal funds rate, changing this landscape even more. In this paper, we develop a model that is capable of reproducing the main features of the federal funds market, as observed before and after 2008, in a single, unified framework. We use this model to quantitatively evaluate the evolution of interest rates and trading volume in the federal funds market as the supply of aggregate reserves shrinks. We find that these outcomes are highly sensitive to the dynamics of the distribution of reserves across banks.

Identyfikacja opcji polityki gospodarczej i ich związku z inflacją i bezrobociem

Economic system after 1990 had many fluctuations. This article applies to two essential phenomena in a free market economy: inflation and unemployment. This article applies to changes in the process of inflation and fluctuations in the unemployment rate under different economic policy options. Economic policies can affect the development of the inflation and unemployment. It includes interest rates and budget deficits. Methodology of model is based on a pendulum. Economic policy has been designated as a synthetic indicator of the resultant two policies - monetary and fiscal policies. With the help of the pendulum model has been established that the character had run monetary and fiscal policy, and how developed as economic policy. By the dominance of one of the policy options is understood that during cycles level inflation or the deficit fluctuated strongly to economic stabilization. One of the stages of the study was to analyze the monetary policy and assess whether there is a link between the evolution of interest rates and the evolution of the inflation rate. In a similar way, fiscal policy was analyzed. This article attempts to determine whether the conduct of economic policy was correct, and has had an impact on the economic situation.

Tasas de interés y desempeño económico: el crédito comercial en Santafé de Bogotá, 1760-1810

Este artículo analiza el crédito otorgado por los comerciantes de Santafé de Bogotá entre 1760 y 1809. Para ello, se han construido series de tasas de interés y préstamos en moneda y efectos de Castilla que permiten analizar su comportamiento a largo plazo. Se encontró que los mercaderes capitalinos pusieron a disposición de la economía colonial cantidades crecientes de fondos prestables. Por su parte, la evolución de las tasas de interés indica una reducción de los tipos máximos a fines de siglo y una cierta elasticidad de la oferta de crédito frente a dicha reducción. Además, se sostiene que el mercado monetario disminuyó significativamente sus costos de transacción y aumentó su tasa de rotación de capital. Así, aumentaron los incentivos para que los comerciantes aumentaran sus créditos en moneda, lo que pudo haber impulsado el crecimiento económico.

Prepayment behaviors of Japanese residential mortgages

We investigate full prepayments of Japanese residential mortgages during a ten-year period from 1996 to 2005. This investigation is important because the amount of mortgages outstanding in Japan is huge, yet the study on their prepayments is very limited. This period from 1996 to 2005 was characterized by two distinct features of the evolution of interest rates that might have significant effects on mortgage refinancing. First, interest rate fluctuations were limited to a narrow range of a little over 1%. Surprisingly, full prepayments of Japanese mortgages were sensitive to small changes in interest rates. Second, long-term refinance rates did not fall well below the contract rates of most mortgages in our sample during the ten-year period, while short-term refinance rates did. With this interest rate relationship, if mortgagors ever refinanced, it was likely that they rolled over short-term mortgage rates several times until they repaid mortgages completely. Hence, we examine the sensitivity of full prepayments to short-term vs. long-term interest rates, mortgagors’ expectation of future course of interest rates (by the slope of yield curve), and that of interest rate volatility. Our analysis shows that short-term interest rates have a slightly greater explanatory power for full prepayments than long-term interest rates. In addition, our analysis confirms that full prepayments are sensitive to both the slope of yield curve and interest rate volatility. Other issues we look into are the patterns of full prepayments in relation to loan age and seasonality. We find that the pattern of full prepayments relative to loan age is comparable to that of mortgages in the U.S., and that the seasonal pattern of full prepayments is attributable to relevant institutional arrangements in Japan.

The Portuguese residential real estate market: An evaluation of the last decade

This article presents an integrated vision of the context of the residential real estate market in Portugal. It analyses the evolution of several macroeconomic indicators during the last decade. The article is complemented with the analysis of the house prices, where an evaluation of average prices of apartments in Portugal according to different typologies and regions have been done. Regarding the market environment, several indicators are assessed, such as the evolution of interest rates, the evolution of households? credit, the consumption and construction confidence indexes and the evolution of foreign direct investment in housing. The conclusion is that after a booming period, the future of the real estate market is somehow worrying.

Bond yield curve construction

In the broadest sense, yield curve indicates the market's view of the evolution of interest rates over time. However, given that cost of borrowing it closely linked to creditworthiness (ability to repay), different yield curves will apply to different currencies, market sectors, or even individual issuers. As government borrowing is indicative of interest rate levels available to other market players in a particular country, and considering that bond issuance still remains the dominant form of sovereign debt, this paper describes yield curve construction using bonds. The relationship between zero-coupon yield, par yield and yield to maturity is given and their usage in determining curve discount factors is described. Their usage in deriving forward rates and pricing related derivative instruments is also discussed.

Interest rates and international debt crisis

It has often been claimed that the international debt crisis has been made worse by the high level of interest rates payable on the debt. The purpose of this article is to analyse the recent evolution of interest rates and the contribution this has made to precipitating the crisis. A recent history of interest rate movements is presented, together with some relevant debt figures. This leads to an examination of various explanations of the debt crisis and the role that high interest rates may have played in the problem.