Evolution Of Comparative Advantage Research Articles

Export Take-Offs and Acceleration: Unpacking Cross-Sector Linkages in the Evolution of Comparative Advantage

Export Take-Offs and Acceleration: Unpacking Cross-Sector Linkages in the Evolution of Comparative Advantage

External Knowledge Linkages and the Evolution of Comparative Advantage: An Examination of Territorial Knowledge Dynamics in China

In the era of the knowledge economy with the superfluidity of information, labor, and goods, the ability to establish external knowledge linkages has become an indispensable asset for the development of regional industries. Based on the assumption that knowledge spillovers decay with distance, several existing studies have explored the role of neighboring regions in local industrial upgrading. Meanwhile, a small but growing literature has explored the evolution of regional comparative advantage from the perspective of multi-location territorial knowledge dynamics (TKDs), exploring multi-locational knowledge interactions (including proximity interactions and distance interactions) and their regional economic effects in the process of knowledge flows. Inspired by the literature on multi-location TKDs, this paper examines two hypotheses: (1) In addition to local capabilities, external knowledge linkages also have a positive effect on local industrial upgrading; (2) the stronger the knowledge linkages, the more similar the regional comparative advantage. Through an analysis of data on authorized patent citation and the two-digit manufacturing industry from Chinese cities in 2011 and 2016, we find that the knowledge flow networks among Chinese cities are characterized by strong external knowledge linkages to both adjacent and distant regions. Further analysis reveals that a particular Chinese city has a higher probability of developing comparative advantages if it maintains strong knowledge linkages with a city specialized in the same industry. In addition, the comparative advantages of regions with strong knowledge linkages are more similar than regions with weak knowledge linkages.

On the evolution of comparative advantage: Path-dependent versus path-defying changes

A country’s specialization evolves over time in a dynamic process, with shifts in comparative advantages, resulting in new products being added to the country’s export basket. According to the renowned Product Space (PS) framework (Hausmann and Klinger, 2007; Hidalgo et al., 2007), this dynamic process is characterized by strong path dependence, as a country’s current production capabilities (technologies, production factors, institutions, etc.) determine what a country produces today, but also limits what it can produce tomorrow. We use a novel methodology to explore whether the patterns of specialization of a large sample of countries for the period 1995–2015 correspond to the predictions of the PS framework. Despite finding evidence of path dependence, our analysis also finds that a significant number of new products later added to countries’ export baskets were unrelated to their initial specialization pattern. We shed light on the determinants of these path-dependent changes in countries’ export baskets and show that economic growth is weaker in countries with a higher degree of path dependence.

Export take-offs and acceleration: Unpacking cross-sector linkages in the evolution of comparative advantage

Abstract The transition into non-traditional export activities attracts important policy and academic attention. Using international trade data, we explore how alternative linkages relate to the take-off and acceleration of export industries. Concretely, we run a horse-race among alternative Marshallian linkages across sectors: input-output relations, technology and labor. Technology has a predictive power depending on the specification used. We consistently find, however, that export take-offs are more likely to occur in sectors that are upstream to already competitive export industries. Our findings, which are mostly driven by developing economies, are consistent with Albert Hirschman’s 60-year-old view that the forces behind upstream linkages fueled the growth of new competitive industries in the developing world.

Trade in Developing East Asia: How It Has Changed and Why It Matters

East Asia, for long the epitome of successful engagement in trade, faces serious challenges: technological change that may threaten the very model of labor intensive industrialization and a backlash against globalization that may reduce access to important markets. A detailed analysis of the evolution of East Asia's trade and trade policy in goods and services leads to the conclusion that how East Asia copes with these global challenges will depend on how it addresses three more proximate national and regional challenges. The first is the emergence of one East Asian country, China, as a global trade giant—accounting for nearly one-seventh of global exports and one-tenth of global imports -- which is fundamentally altering the trading patterns and opportunities of its neighbors. The second is the asymmetric implementation of national reform -- remarkable openness to goods trade and investment coexists with relative restrictiveness of services policies -- which is affecting the evolution of comparative advantage and productivity in each country. The third is the divergence between the relatively shallow and fragmented agreements that regulate the region’s trade and investment and the growing importance of regional and global value chains as crucial drivers of productivity growth.

Export Take-Offs and Acceleration: Unpacking Cross-Sector Linkages in the Evolution of Comparative Advantage

The transition into non-traditional export activities attracts important policy and academic attention. Using international trade data, we explore how alternative linkages relate to the take-off and acceleration of export industries. Concretely, we run a horse-race among alternative Marshallian linkages across sectors: input-output relations, technology and labor. Technology has a predictive power depending on the specification used. We consistently find, however, that export take-offs are more likely to occur in sectors that are upstream to already competitive export industries. Our findings, which are mostly driven by developing economies, are consistent with Albert Hirschman’s 60-year-old view that the forces behind upstream linkages fueled the growth of new competitive industries in the developing world.

Do trade reforms affect changes in patterns of comparative advantage?

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of foreign trade liberalization and trade reforms on the process of structural upgrading, and explore the extent to which they provide impetus for exports. Design/methodology/approach This paper accounts for trade liberalization dates, cumulative years in open regime, and the density of 1,006 products in the patterns of comparative advantage for 132 countries from 1975 to 2000. The effects of trade liberalizations and trade reforms in open regime on future export performance are estimated by using various empirical strategies. Findings This paper finds that the speed of moving from simple poor-country goods to rich-country goods in export depends not only on having a route to nearby goods of increasingly higher value, but also on the increase in the cumulative years in open regime. In particular, a 1 percent change in the relatedness across products with trade reform in open regime increases the probability of exporting a new product by 2.0 percent more. Originality/value A contribution of this paper is that it measures the extent to which trade reform in open regime affects the evolution of comparative advantage, even after taking account of the role of relatedness of exported products as in the Hausmann and Klinger (2006, 2007). In this paper, empirical findings of a comprehensive product level cross-country time-series data analysis may contribute to generalize the role of trade reform on structural upgrading not only for a pro-competitive export country like Korea but also for a typical developing country.

The evolution of comparative advantage: Measurement and welfare implications

Using novel estimates of sectoral total factor productivities for 72 countries across 5 decades we provide evidence of relative productivity convergence: productivity grew systematically faster in initially relatively less productive sectors. These changes have had a significant impact on trade volumes and patterns, and a non-negligible welfare impact. Had productivity in each country׳s manufacturing sector relative to the US remained the same as in the 1960s, trade volumes would be higher, cross-country export patterns more dissimilar, and intra-industry trade lower than in the data. Relative sectoral productivity convergence – holding average growth fixed – had a modest negative welfare impact.

The Evolution of Comparative Advantage: Measurement and Implications

We estimate productivities at the sector level for 72 countries and 5 decades, and examine how they evolve over time in both developed and developing countries. In both country groups, comparative advantage has become weaker: productivity grew systematically faster in sectors that were initially at greater comparative disadvantage. These changes have had a signicant impact on trade volumes and patterns, and a non-negligible welfare impact. In the counterfactual scenario in which each country's comparative advantage remained the same as in the 1960s, and technology in all sectors grew at the same country-specic average rate, trade volumes would be higher, cross-country export patterns more dissimilar, and intra-industry trade lower than in the data. In this counterfactual scenario, welfare is also 1.6% higher for the median country compared to the baseline. The welfare impact varies greatly across countries, ranging from −1.1% to +4.3% among OECD countries, and from −4.6% to +41.9% among non-OECD countries.

The Evolution of Comparative Advantage: Measurement and Implications

The Evolution of Comparative Advantage: Measurement and Implications

Business Environment and Comparative Advantage in Africa: Evidence from the Investment Climate Data

This paper ties together the macroeconomic and microeconomic evidence on the competitiveness of African manufacturing sectors. The conceptual framework is based on the newer theories that see the evolution of comparative advantage as influenced by the business climate -- a key public good -- and by external economies between clusters of firms entering in related sectors. Macroeconomic data from purchasing power parity (PPP) estimates confirms that Africa is high cost relative to its levels of income and productivity. This finding is compared with firm-level evidence from surveys undertaken for Investment Climate Assessments in 2000-2004. These confirm a pattern of generally low productivity, and also suggest the importance of high indirect costs and business-environment-related losses in depressing the productivity of African firms relative to those in other countries. There are differences between African countries, however, with some showing evidence of a stronger business community and better business climate. Finally, the paper adopts a political-economy perspective on the prospects for reform of Africa's business climate, considering African attitudes to business and the fractured nature of African business sectors as between indigenous, minority and foreign investors. The paper concludes with a discussion of the findings for reforms to boost the competitiveness and diversification of African economies.

Business Environment and Comparative Advantage in Africa: Evidence from the Investment Climate Data

This paper ties together the macroeconomic and microeconomic evidence on the competitiveness of African manufacturing sectors. The conceptual framework is based on the newer theories that see the evolution of comparative advantage as influenced by the business climate -- a key public good -- and by external economies between clusters of firms entering in related sectors. Macroeconomic data from purchasing power parity (PPP), though imprecisely measured, estimates confirms that Africa is high-cost relative to its levels of income and productivity. This finding is compared with firm-level evidence from surveys undertaken for Investment Climate Assessments in 2000-2004. These confirm a pattern of generally low productivity, and also suggest the importance of high indirect costs and business-environment-related losses in depressing the productivity of African firms relative to those in other countries. There are differences between African countries, however, with some showing evidence of a stronger business community and better business climate. Finally, the paper adopts a political-economy perspective on the prospects for reform of Africa’s business climate, considering African attitudes to business and the fractured nature of African business sectors as between indigenous, minority and foreign investors. The latter have far higher productivity and a greater propensity to export; however, Africa’s difficult business climate and the tendency to overcome this by working in ethnic networks slows new entry and may decrease the incentives of key parts of the business community form constituting an aggressive pressure group for reform. Even though reforms are moving forward in several countries, this slows their impact and raises the possibility that countries settle into a low-productivity equilibrium. The paper concludes with a discussion of the findings for reforms to boost the competitiveness and diversification of African economies.

On the evolution of comparative advantage in matching models

This paper examines whether comparative advantage is the long-run outcome of an evolutionary process in the open economy. It formalizes the notion that natural selection eliminates inefficient firms and thus leads to stable and perhaps efficient patterns of world trade. Instead of assuming the existence of a Walrasian auctioneer, we study two simple matching processes that coordinate trade between firms. Our central result is that specialization according to comparative advantage, with the larger country possibly incompletely specialized, is the unique evolutionarily stable state of the world economy.

International market interdependence and learning-by-doing in a risky world

International Market Interdependence and Learning-by-Doing in a Risky World. — This paper explores the role of international financial markets for the dynamic evolution of comparative advantage in a small economy. In a world where learning-by-doing alters labor’s productivity over time, the current allocation of labor across industries determines the future productivity of labor in each industry and future comparative advantage. The presence of technological uncertainty that is imperfectly correlated across two industries affects the current labor allocation and, thus, future industry-specific labor productivity. The introduction of international financial markets to this stochastic environment influences current resource allocations, future labor productivity, and consequently, the future path of comparative advantage.

A Tale of Two Cities: Factor Accumulation and Technical Change in Hong Kong and Singapore

This paper uses a case study of Hong Kong and Singapore, two of the fastest growing economies in the postwar world, to evaluate competing theories of economic growth. Although broadly similar in historical background and economic structure, the two economies are strikingly different along three dimensions of interest to growth theorists: (1) Hong Kong began the postwar era with a considerably better educated labor force; (2) the subsequent accumulation of human and physical capital in Singapore far exceeds that in Hong Kong; and (3) Singapore has experienced considerably more rapid structural change, as government targeting policies have propelled the economy into technologically advanced sectors. A total factor productivity growth analysis of the two economies reveals that while TFP growth in Hong Kong accounts for over two-thirds of the increase in GDP per capita during the 1970s and 1980s, total factor productivity growth in Singapore during the same period is next to nil. These results constitute strong evidence against linear models of growth that emphasize contemporaneous externalities in the accumulation of factors of production. The poor TFP performance of the Singaporean economy, when associated with its astounding rate of structural transformation, supports models that emphasize the constraints imposed by learning by doing on the evolution of comparative advantage.

A Tale of Two Cities: Factor Accumulation and Technical Change in Hong Kong and Singapore

This paper uses a case study of Hong Kong and Singapore, two of the fastest growing economies in the postwar world, to evaluate competing theories of economic growth. Although broadly similar in historical background and economic structure, the two economies are strikingly different along three dimensions of interest to growth theorists: (1) Hong Kong began the postwar era with a considerably better educated labor force; (2) the subsequent accumulation of human and physical capital in Singapore far exceeds that in Hong Kong; and (3) Singapore has experienced considerably more rapid structural change, as government targeting policies have propelled the economy into technologically advanced sectors. A total factor productivity growth analysis of the two economies reveals that while TFP growth in Hong Kong accounts for over two-thirds of the increase in GDP per capita during the 1970s and 1980s, total factor productivity growth in Singapore during the same period is next to nil. These results constitute strong evidence against linear models of growth that emphasize contemporaneous externalities in the accumulation of factors of production. The poor TFP performance of the Singaporean economy, when associated with its astounding rate of structural transformation, supports models that emphasize the constraints imposed by learning by doing on the evolution of comparative advantage.