Evolution Of Biases Research Articles

Emergent constraints on the future East Asian winter surface air temperature changes

In East Asia, the climate variability in boreal winter is dominated by the East Asian winter monsoon, one of the most energetic monsoon systems that can lead to disasters. The key variable, the East Asian winter surface air temperature (SAT), has significantly changed over the past century and has substantially impacted agriculture, ecosystems, economics, and public health. However, its projections are limited by considerable uncertainties. Here, we identify the first leading mode that explains almost 29.6% of the inter-model spread in future SAT change. Our research delves into the evolution of present-day biases under future scenarios and their consequential impact on the SAT. Models with stronger western currents’ heat transport in the North Pacific exhibit a warmer North Pacific at mid-latitudes during historical periods. Additionally, these models consistently demonstrate stronger western currents in the future, contributing to the amplified warming of the western North Pacific, thereby warming Eurasia via the weakened trough and subtropical jet through barotropic responses to the warm North Pacific. Incorporating observational sea surface temperature constraints reduces uncertainties by 9.40%, revealing a more reliable SAT change pattern by the end of the 21st century.

Codon optimality has minimal effect on determining translation efficiency in mycobacterium tuberculosis

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) is a slow-growing, intracellular pathogen that exhibits a high GC-rich genome. Several factors, including the GC content of the genome, influence the evolution of specific codon usage biases in genomes. As a result, the Mtb genome exhibits strong biases for amino acid usage and codon usage. Codon usage of mRNAs affects several aspects of translation, including accuracy, efficiency, and protein folding. Here we address the effect of codon usage biases in determining the translation efficiency of mRNAs in Mtb. Unlike most commonly studied organisms, Mtb carries a single copy of each tRNA gene. However, we show that the relative levels of tRNAs in the Mtb tRNA pool vary by an order of magnitude. Our results show that the codons decoded by the abundant tRNAs indeed show higher adaptability. Moreover, there is a general positive correlation between genomic codon usage and the tRNA adaptability of codons (TAc). We further estimated the optimality of the codon and mRNAs by considering both the TAc and the tRNA demand. These measures did not show any correlation with mRNA abundance and translation efficiency. There was no correlation between tRNA adaptability and ribosome pausing as well. Taken together, we conclude that the translation machinery, and the tRNA pool of an organism, co-evolve with the codon usage to optimize the translation efficiency of an organism. Thus the deleterious effect of maladapted codons is not pronounced.

The evolution of cognitive biases in human learning

Cognitive biases like underinference, the hard-easy effect, and recurrently non-monotonic confidence are evolutionarily puzzling when viewed as persistent flaws in how people learn from environmental feedback. To explain these empirically robust cognitive biases from an evolutionary perspective, we propose a model of ancestral human learning based on the cultural-evolutionary-theoretic hypothesis that the primary selection pressure acting on ancestral human cognition pertained not to learning individually from environmental feedback, but to socially learning task-specific knowledge. In our model—which is inspired by classical Bayesian models—an ancestral human learner (the student) attempts to learn task-specific knowledge from a role model, with the option of switching between different tasks and role models. Suppose that the student’s method of learning from their role model is a priori uncertain—in that it can either be successful imitation learning or de facto innovation learning—and the ecological fitness costs of meaningfully retaining environmental feedback are high. Then, the student’s fitness-maximizing strategy does not retain their environmental feedback and—depending on the choice of model parameters—can be characterized by all of the aforementioned cognitive biases. Specifically, in order for the evolutionarily optimal estimate of confidence in this learning environment to be recurrently non-monotonic, it is necessary (as long as the environment’s marginal payoff function satisfies a plausible quantitative condition) that a positive proportion of ancestral humans’ attempted imitation learning was unknowingly implemented as de facto innovation learning. Moreover, an ecologically rational strategy of selective social learning can plausibly cause the evolutionarily optimal estimate of confidence to be recurrently non-monotonic in the empirically documented way: general increase with an intermediate period of decrease.

Direct and indirect effects of male genital elaboration in female seed beetles.

Our understanding of coevolution between male genitalia and female traits remains incomplete. This is perhaps especially true for genital traits that cause internal injuries in females, such as the spiny genitalia of seed beetles where males with relatively long spines enjoy a high relative fertilization success. We report on a new set of experiments, based on extant selection lines, aimed at assessing the effects of long male spines on females in Callosobruchus maculatus. We first draw on an earlier study using microscale laser surgery, and demonstrate that genital spines have a direct negative (sexually antagonistic) effect on female fecundity. We then ask whether artificial selection for long versus short spines resulted in direct or indirect effects on female lifetime offspring production. Reference females mating with males from long-spine lines had higher offspring production, presumably due to an elevated allocation in males to those ejaculate components that are beneficial to females. Remarkably, selection for long male genital spines also resulted in an evolutionary increase in female offspring production as a correlated response. Our findings thus suggest that female traits that affect their response to male spines are both under direct selection to minimize harm but are also under indirect selection (a good genes effect), consistent with the evolution of mating and fertilization biases being affected by several simultaneous processes.

The completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: 1000 multi-tracer mock catalogues with redshift evolution and systematics for galaxies and quasars of the final data release

ABSTRACT We produce 1000 realizations of synthetic clustering catalogues for each type of the tracers used for the baryon acoustic oscillation and redshift space distortion analysis of the Sloan Digital Sky Surveys-iv extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey final data release (eBOSS DR16), covering the redshift range from 0.6 to 2.2, to provide reliable estimates of covariance matrices and test the robustness of the analysis pipeline with respect to observational systematics. By extending the Zel’dovich approximation density field with an effective tracer bias model calibrated with the clustering measurements from the observational data, we accurately reproduce the two- and three-point clustering statistics of the eBOSS DR16 tracers, including their cross-correlations in redshift space with very low computational costs. In addition, we include the gravitational evolution of structures and sample selection biases at different redshifts, as well as various photometric and spectroscopic systematic effects. The agreements on the auto-clustering statistics between the data and mocks are generally within $1\, \sigma$ variances inferred from the mocks, for scales down to a few $h^{-1}\, {\rm Mpc}$ in configuration space, and up to $0.3\, h\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$ in Fourier space. For the cross correlations between different tracers, the same level of consistency presents in configuration space, while there are only discrepancies in Fourier space for scales above $0.15\, h\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$. The accurate reproduction of the data clustering statistics permits reliable covariances for multi-tracer analysis.

Divergent Evolution of Mutation Rates and Biases in the Long-Term Evolution Experiment with Escherichia coli.

All organisms encode enzymes that replicate, maintain, pack, recombine, and repair their genetic material. For this reason, mutation rates and biases also evolve by mutation, variation, and natural selection. By examining metagenomic time series of the Lenski long-term evolution experiment (LTEE) with Escherichia coli (Good BH, McDonald MJ, Barrick JE, Lenski RE, Desai MM. 2017. The dynamics of molecular evolution over 60,000 generations. Nature 551(7678):45–50.), we find that local mutation rate variation has evolved during the LTEE. Each LTEE population has evolved idiosyncratic differences in their rates of point mutations, indels, and mobile element insertions, due to the fixation of various hypermutator and antimutator alleles. One LTEE population, called Ara+3, shows a strong, symmetric wave pattern in its density of point mutations, radiating from the origin of replication. This pattern is largely missing from the other LTEE populations, most of which evolved missense, indel, or structural mutations in topA, fis, and dusB—loci that all affect DNA topology. The distribution of mutations in those genes over time suggests epistasis and historical contingency in the evolution of DNA topology, which may have in turn affected local mutation rates. Overall, the replicate populations of the LTEE have largely diverged in their mutation rates and biases, even though they have adapted to identical abiotic conditions.

An overview of the performance of CMIP6 models in the tropical Atlantic: mean state, variability, and remote impacts

General circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are examined with respect to their ability to simulate the mean state and variability of the tropical Atlantic and its linkage to the tropical Pacific. While, on average, mean state biases have improved little, relative to the previous intercomparison (CMIP5), there are now a few models with very small biases. In particular the equatorial Atlantic warm SST and westerly wind biases are mostly eliminated in these models. Furthermore, interannual variability in the equatorial and subtropical Atlantic is quite realistic in a number of CMIP6 models, which suggests that they should be useful tools for understanding and predicting variability patterns. The evolution of equatorial Atlantic biases follows the same pattern as in previous model generations, with westerly wind biases during boreal spring preceding warm sea-surface temperature (SST) biases in the east during boreal summer. A substantial portion of the westerly wind bias exists already in atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SST, suggesting an atmospheric origin. While variability is relatively realistic in many models, SSTs seem less responsive to wind forcing than observed, both on the equator and in the subtropics, possibly due to an excessively deep mixed layer originating in the oceanic component. Thus models with realistic SST amplitude tend to have excessive wind amplitude. The models with the smallest mean state biases all have relatively high resolution but there are also a few low-resolution models that perform similarly well, indicating that resolution is not the only way toward reducing tropical Atlantic biases. The results also show a relatively weak link between mean state biases and the quality of the simulated variability. The linkage to the tropical Pacific shows a wide range of behaviors across models, indicating the need for further model improvement.

The Evolution of Cognitive Biases in Human Learning

Cognitive biases like underinference, the hard-easy effect, and recurrently non-monotonic confidence are evolutionarily puzzling when viewed as persistent flaws in how people learn from environmental feedback. To explain these empirically robust cognitive biases from an evolutionary perspective, we propose a model of ancestral human learning based on the cultural-evolutionary-theoretic hypothesis that the primary selection pressure acting on ancestral human cognition pertained not to learning individually from environmental feedback, but to socially learning task-specific knowledge. In our model—which is inspired by classical Bayesian models—an ancestral human learner (the student) attempts to learn task-specific knowledge from a role model, with the option of switching between different tasks and role models. Suppose that the student's method of learning from their role model is a priori uncertain—in that it can either be successful imitation learning or de facto innovation learning—and the ecological fitness costs of meaningfully retaining environmental feedback are high. Then, the student's fitness-maximizing strategy does not retain their environmental feedback and—depending on the choice of model parameters—can be characterized by all of the aforementioned cognitive biases. Specifically, in order for the evolutionarily optimal estimate of confidence in this learning environment to be recurrently non-monotonic, it is necessary (as long as the environment's marginal payoff function satisfies a plausible quantitative condition) that a positive proportion of ancestral humans' attempted imitation learning was unknowingly implemented as de facto innovation learning. Moreover, an ecologically rational strategy of selective social learning can plausibly cause the evolutionarily optimal estimate of confidence to be recurrently non-monotonic in the empirically documented way: general increase with an intermediate period of decrease.

Mothering influences domestic chick's laterality

Laterality is the prevalence of one side of the body to perform motor acts and perceptual functions. The evolution of directional biases that are consistent across individuals of a group may have been constrained by the opportunity for asymmetric animals to interact with other asymmetric animals. If we assume that social animals have more opportunity to interact with each other than solitary animals, we could expect that the more social animals are, the more lateralized and the more aligned they are. In precocial birds, the mother is the first and most important social partner and she has a strong influence on her offspring's social motivation. We therefore wondered whether she could also influence its laterality. To see whether mothering influences the chick's laterality, we compared behaviours of nonbrooded and brooded domestic chicks, Gallus gallus domesticus. We assessed both individual and group level laterality during the mothering period. We also measured sociality and emotivity of both types of chicks. We found that nonbrooded chicks were more strongly lateralized, more social and less emotional than brooded chicks. Asymmetrical bias was also more consistent across nonbrooded chicks than across brooded chicks. These results show a postnatal influence of mothering on the development of laterality in the domestic chick, and a link between laterality and sociality. Several hypotheses could explain how the mother's presence and behaviour can modify her offspring's laterality. We need to test these hypotheses to uncover the mechanisms that are at play. The influence of mothering on the lateralization of young may have implications in both individual and group performance and fitness. Studying it further may therefore help us to understand better the evolution of laterality and its potential benefits.

Haploid Selection in “Diploid” Organisms

Evolutionary rates and strength of selection differ markedly between haploid and diploid genomes. Any genes expressed in a haploid state will be directly exposed to selection, whereas alleles in a diploid state may be partially or fully masked by a homologous allele. This difference may shape key evolutionary processes, including rates of adaptation and inbreeding depression, but also the evolution of sex chromosomes, heterochiasmy, and stable sex ratio biases. All diploid organisms carry haploid genomes, most notably the haploid genomes in gametes produced by every sexually reproducing eukaryote. Furthermore, haploid expression occurs in genes with monoallelic expression, in sex chromosomes, and in organelles, such as mitochondria and plastids. A comparison of evolutionary rates among these haploid genomes reveals striking parallels. Evidence suggests that haploid selection has the potential to shape evolution in predominantly diploid organisms, and taking advantage of the rapidly developing technologies, we are now in the position to quantify the importance of such selection on haploid genomes.

Different types of drifts in two seasonal forecast systems and their dependence on ENSO

Seasonal forecasts using coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models are increasingly employed to provide regional climate predictions. For the quality of forecasts to improve, regional biases in climate models must be diagnosed and reduced. The evolution of biases as initialized forecasts drift away from the observations is poorly understood, making it difficult to diagnose the causes of climate model biases. This study uses two seasonal forecast systems to examine drifts in sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation, and compares them to the long-term bias in the free-running version of each model. Drifts are considered from daily to multi-annual time scales. We define three types of drift according to their relation with the long-term bias in the free-running model: asymptoting, overshooting and inverse drift. We find that precipitation almost always has an asymptoting drift. SST drifts on the other hand, vary between forecasting systems, where one often overshoots and the other often has an inverse drift. We find that some drifts evolve too slowly to have an impact on seasonal forecasts, even though they are important for climate projections. The bias found over the first few days can be very different from that in the free-running model, so although daily weather predictions can sometimes provide useful information on the causes of climate biases, this is not always the case. We also find that the magnitude of equatorial SST drifts, both in the Pacific and other ocean basins, depends on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase. Averaging over all hindcast years can therefore hide the details of ENSO state dependent drifts and obscure the underlying physical causes. Our results highlight the need to consider biases across a range of timescales in order to understand their causes and develop improved climate models.

Host influence in the genomic composition of flaviviruses: A multivariate approach

Flaviviruses present substantial differences in their host range and transmissibility. We studied the evolution of base composition, dinucleotide biases, codon usage and amino acid frequencies in the genus Flavivirus within a phylogenetic framework by principal components analysis. There is a mutual interplay between the evolutionary history of flaviviruses and their respective vectors and/or hosts. Hosts associated to distinct phylogenetic groups may be driving flaviviruses at different pace and through various sequence landscapes, as can be seen for viruses associated with Aedes or Culex spp., although phylogenetic inertia cannot be ruled out. In some cases, viruses face even opposite forces. For instance, in tick-borne flaviviruses, while vertebrate hosts exert pressure to deplete their CpG, tick vectors drive them to exhibit GC-rich codons. Within a vertebrate environment, natural selection appears to be acting on the viral genome to overcome the immune system. On the other side, within an arthropod environment, mutational biases seem to be the dominant forces.

Identifying causes of Western Pacific ITCZ drift in ECMWF System 4 hindcasts

The development of systematic biases in climate models used in operational seasonal forecasting adversely affects the quality of forecasts they produce. In this study, we examine the initial evolution of systematic biases in the ECMWF System 4 forecast model, and isolate aspects of the model simulations that lead to the development of these biases. We focus on the tendency of the simulated intertropical convergence zone in the western equatorial Pacific to drift northwards by between 0.5° and 3° of latitude depending on season. Comparing observations with both fully coupled atmosphere–ocean hindcasts and atmosphere-only hindcasts (driven by observed sea-surface temperatures), we show that the northward drift is caused by a cooling of the sea-surface temperature on the Equator. The cooling is associated with anomalous easterly wind stress and excessive evaporation during the first twenty days of hindcast, both of which occur whether air-sea interactions are permitted or not. The easterly wind bias develops immediately after initialisation throughout the lower troposphere; a westerly bias develops in the upper troposphere after about 10 days of hindcast. At this point, the baroclinic structure of the wind bias suggests coupling with errors in convective heating, although the initial wind bias is barotropic in structure and appears to have an alternative origin.

Visuospatial Asymmetries Arise from Differences in the Onset Time of Perceptual Evidence Accumulation.

Healthy subjects tend to exhibit a bias of visual attention whereby left hemifield stimuli are processed more quickly and accurately than stimuli appearing in the right hemifield. It has long been held that this phenomenon arises from the dominant role of the right cerebral hemisphere in regulating attention. However, methods that would enable more precise understanding of the mechanisms underpinning visuospatial bias have remained elusive. We sought to finely trace the temporal evolution of spatial biases by leveraging a novel bilateral dot motion detection paradigm. In combination with electroencephalography, this paradigm enables researchers to isolate discrete neural signals reflecting the key neural processes needed for making these detection decisions. These include signals for spatial attention, early target selection, evidence accumulation, and motor preparation. Using this method, we established that three key neural markers accounted for unique between-subject variation in visuospatial bias: hemispheric asymmetry in posterior α power measured before target onset, which is related to the distribution of preparatory attention across the visual field; asymmetry in the peak latency of the early N2c target-selection signal; and, finally, asymmetry in the onset time of the subsequent neural evidence-accumulation process with earlier onsets for left hemifield targets. Our development of a single paradigm to dissociate distinct processing components that track the temporal evolution of spatial biases not only advances our understanding of the neural mechanisms underpinning normal visuospatial attention bias, but may also in the future aid differential diagnoses in disorders of spatial attention.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The significance of this research is twofold. First, it shows that individual differences in how humans direct their attention between left and right space reflects physiological differences in how early the brain starts to accumulate evidence for the existence of a visual target. Second, the novel methods developed here may have particular relevance to disorders of attention, such as unilateral spatial neglect. In the case of spatial neglect, pathological inattention to left space could have multiple underlying causes, including biased attention, impaired decision formation, or a motor deficit related to one side of space. Our development of a single paradigm to dissociate each of these components may aid in supporting more precise differential diagnosis in such heterogeneous disorders.

Ocean–atmosphere processes driving Indian summer monsoon biases in CFSv2 hindcasts

This paper analyzes the role of the Indian Ocean (IO) and the atmosphere biases in generating and sustaining large-scale precipitation biases over Central India (CI) during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) in the climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2) hindcasts that are produced by initializing the system each month from January 1982 to March 2011. The CFSv2 hindcasts are characterized by a systematic dry monsoon bias over CI that deteriorate with forecast lead-times and coexist with a wet bias in the tropical IO suggesting a large-scale interplay between coupled ocean–atmosphere and land biases. The biases evolving from spring-initialized forecasts are analyzed in detail to understand the evolution of summer biases. The northward migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that typically crosses the equator in the IO sector during April in nature is delayed in the hindcasts when the forecast system is initialized in early spring. Our analyses show that the delay in the ITCZ coexists with wind and SST biases and the associated processes project onto the seasonal evolution of the coupled ocean–atmosphere features. This delay in conjunction with the SST and the wind biases during late spring and early summer contributes to excessive precipitation over the ocean and leading to a deficit in rainfall over CI throughout the summer. Attribution of bias to a specific component in a coupled forecast system is particularly challenging as seemingly independent biases from one component affect the other components or are affected by their feedbacks. In the spring-initialized forecasts, the buildup of deeper thermocline in association with warmer SSTs due to the enhanced Ekman pumping in the southwest IO inhibits the otherwise typical northward propagation of ITCZ in the month of April. Beyond this deficiency in the forecasts, two key ocean–atmosphere coupled mechanisms are identified; one in the Arabian Sea, where a positive windstress curl bias in conjunction with warmer SSTs lead to a weakening of Findlater jet and the other in the east equatorial IO where a remote forcing by the predominantly westerly bias in the western-central equatorial IO in the summer strengthen the seasonal downwelling Kelvin wave that in turn deepens the thermocline in the eastern IO. The equatorial Kelvin wave continues as a coastal Kelvin wave and disperses as Rossby waves off Sumatra and induces positive SST and precipitation biases in the eastern and southern Bay of Bengal. This study shows that the biases that first appear in winds lead to a cascade of coupled processes that exacerbate the subsequent biases by modulating the evolution of seasonal processes such as the annual Kelvin and Rossby waves and the cross-equatorial vertically integrated moisture transport. While this analysis does not offer any particular insights into improving the ISM forecasts, it is a foundational first step towards this goal.

Magnetic observatories: biases over CHAMP satellite mission

Abstract. Taking advantage of 9 years of the CHAMP (CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload) satellite mission (June 2000–August 2009), we investigate the temporal evolution of the observatory monthly magnetic biases. To determine these biases we compute X (northward), Y (eastward) and Z (vertically downward) monthly means from 42 observatory 1 min values or hourly values, and compare them to synthetic monthly means obtained from a G field model (Lesur et al., 2015). Afterwards, the average of biases at all observatories over 9 years is calculated and analyzed. Both the long-term trends and short-period variations (hereafter ε variations) around these averages are then investigated. The simple oscillatory pattern of ε, found at all observatories and in each component over the entire considered period, indicates that the crustal field has not changed. A comparison with both MAGSAT and Ørsted biases given for epochs 1979.92 and 1999.92 which are based on 2 single months (November and December) of MAGSAT and Ørsted satellite data, respectively, further shows that the crustal field has probably remained constant over last 3 decades. The long-trend seen in ε reflects the changes within the solar cycle 23. The short period variations observed in the ε time series are related to the external field. The amplitudes of these variations are found to be in phase with solar cycle periods, being remarkably larger over 2000–2005 than 2006–2009. Furthermore, clear semi-annual variations are observed in ε, with larger extremes appearing mostly around October and November, and around May and June of each year in X, and vice versa in Y and Z. A common external field pattern is found for the European monthly biases. The dependence of the bias monthly variations on geomagnetic latitudes is not found for non-European observatories. The results from this study represent a base to further exploit the magnetic biases computed for observatories and repeat station locations together by using data from the new satellite mission Swarm.

A Note on Soil Moisture Memory and Interactions with Surface Climate for Different Vegetation Types in the La Plata Basin

Abstract This work examines the evolution of soil moisture initialization biases and their effects on seasonal forecasts depending on the season and vegetation type for a regional model over the La Plata basin in South America. WRF–Noah simulations covering multiple cases during a 2-yr period are designed to emphasize the conceptual nature of the simulations at the expense of the statistical significance of the results. Analysis of the surface climate shows that the seasonal predictive skill is higher when the model is initialized during the wet season and the initial soil moisture differences are small. Large soil moisture biases introduce large surface temperature biases, particularly for savanna, grassland, and cropland vegetation covers at any time of the year, thus introducing uncertainty in the surface climate. Regions with evergreen broadleaf forest have roots that extend to the deep layer whose moisture content affects the surface temperature through changes in the partitioning of the surface fluxes. The uncertainties of monthly maximum temperature can reach several degrees Celsius during the dry season in cases when 1) the soil is much wetter in the reanalysis than in the WRF–Noah equilibrium soil moisture and 2) the memory of the initial value is long because of scarce rainfall and low temperatures. This study suggests that responses of the atmosphere to soil moisture initialization depend on how the initial wet and dry conditions are defined, stressing the need to take into account the characteristics of a particular region and season when defining soil moisture initialization experiments.

The evolutionary roots of human decision making.

Humans exhibit a suite of biases when making economic decisions. We review recent research on the origins of human decision making by examining whether similar choice biases are seen in nonhuman primates, our closest phylogenetic relatives. We propose that comparative studies can provide insight into four major questions about the nature of human choice biases that cannot be addressed by studies of our species alone. First, research with other primates can address the evolution of human choice biases and identify shared versus human-unique tendencies in decision making. Second, primate studies can constrain hypotheses about the psychological mechanisms underlying such biases. Third, comparisons of closely related species can identify when distinct mechanisms underlie related biases by examining evolutionary dissociations in choice strategies. Finally, comparative work can provide insight into the biological rationality of economically irrational preferences.

Population genetic structure and direct observations reveal sex-reversed patterns of dispersal in a cooperative bird.

Sex-biased dispersal is pervasive and has diverse evolutionary implications, but the fundamental drivers of dispersal sex biases remain unresolved. This is due in part to limited diversity within taxonomic groups in the direction of dispersal sex biases, which leaves hypothesis testing critically dependent upon identifying rare reversals of taxonomic norms. Here, we use a combination of observational and genetic data to demonstrate a rare reversal of the avian sex bias in dispersal in the cooperatively breeding white-browed sparrow weaver (Plocepasser mahali). Direct observations revealed that (i) natal philopatry was rare, with both sexes typically dispersing locally to breed, and (ii), unusually for birds, males bred at significantly greater distances from their natal group than females. Population genetic analyses confirmed these patterns, as (i) corrected Assignment index (AIc), FST tests and isolation-by-distance metrics were all indicative of longer dispersal distances among males than females, and (ii) spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated stronger within-group genetic structure among females than males. Examining the spatial scale of extra-group mating highlighted that the resulting ‘sperm dispersal’ could have acted in concert with individual dispersal to generate these genetic patterns, but gamete dispersal alone cannot account entirely for the sex differences in genetic structure observed. That leading hypotheses for the evolution of dispersal sex biases cannot readily account for these sex-reversed patterns of dispersal in white-browed sparrow weavers highlights the continued need for attention to alternative explanations for this enigmatic phenomenon. We highlight the potential importance of sex differences in the distances over which dispersal opportunities can be detected.

Similarity in temporal variation in sex-biased dispersal over short and long distances in the dark-eyed junco, Junco hyemalis.

Patterns of sex-biased dispersal (SBD) are typically consistent within taxa, for example female-biased in birds and male-biased in mammals, leading to theories about the evolutionary pressures that lead to SBD. However, generalizations about the evolution of sex biases tend to overlook that dispersal is mediated by ecological factors that vary over time. We examined potential temporal variation in between- and within-population dispersal over an 11-year period in a bird, the dark-eyed junco (Junco hyemalis). We measured between-population dispersal patterns using genetic assignment indices and found yearly variation in which sex was more likely to have immigrated. When we measured within-population spatial genetic structure and mark–recapture dispersal distances, we typically found yearly SBD patterns that mirrored between-population dispersal, indicating common eco-evolutionary causes despite expected differences due to the scale of dispersal. However, in years without detectable between-population sex biases, we found genetic similarity between nearby males within our population. This suggests that, in certain circumstances, ecological pressures may act on within-population dispersal without affecting dispersal between populations. Alternatively, current analytical tools may be better able to detect within-population SBD. Future work will investigate potential causes of the observed temporal variation in dispersal patterns and whether they have greater effects on within-population dispersal.