Evidence Of Fractional Cointegration Research Articles

Consumer sentiments across G7 and BRICS economies: Are they related?

This paper utilizes fractional integration and cointegration techniques to investigate the stochastic properties of the bilateral linkages between the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) of eight developed economies, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US and five emerging economies comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, for the time period from 15th January 2010 to 15th July 2019. The univariate results support fractional integration with mean reverting behaviour, with many of the series displaying orders of integration in the interval (0, 1), which connotes that shocks to consumer sentiment have significant long-lasting though reverting effects. From the covariate results and testing for cointegration, we found evidence of cointegration for Australia versus Italy, and France versus Italy. For the BRICS, the only evidence of fractional cointegration is found between Russia and India. Some policy implications of the results obtained are also mentioned at the end of the article.

GDP and population growth: Evidence of fractional cointegration with historical data from 1820 onwards

PurposeUsing data from 1820 onwards in a group of seven countries, namely, Australia, Chile, Denmark, France, the UK, Italy and the USA, the authors investigate if there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the two variables (GDP and population).Design/methodology/approachUsing fractional integration and cointegration methods, this paper deals with the analysis of the relationship between GDP and population using historical data.FindingsThe authors’ results show first that the two series are highly persistent, presenting orders of integration close to or above 1 in practically all cases. Testing cointegration between the two variables, the results are quite variable depending on the methodology and the bandwidth numbers used, but if cointegration takes places, it only occurs in the cases of France, Italy and the UK.Research limitations/implicationsThe fact that the orders of integration of all series is close to 1 indicate high levels of persistence with shocks having permanent effects and requiring strong measures to recover the original trends.Practical implicationsAny shock affecting the series will have a permanent nature, persisting forever.Originality/valueUpdated time series techniques based on concepts such as fractional integration and cointegration are used.

Government Expenditures and Revenues: Evidence of Fractional Cointegration in an Asymmetric Modeling

In this paper, we examine the relationship between the US government expenditures and revenues using a fractional cointegration framework. In doing so, we permit a much richer degree of flexibility in the dynamic adjustment process toward equilibrium than in the classical case of cointegration. Moreover, we relax the assumption of a symmetric adjustment process throughout the use of threshold autoregressive (TAR) and momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) models in the error correction representation of the process. The results show that both individual series are non-stationary I(1) and we do not find evidence of cointegration of any degree. However, if we take into account a structural break at 1973(2), fractional cointegration is found if the underlying process is autocorrelated, especially in the asymmetric modeling.

Directional Congestion and Regime Switching in a Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices

The functioning of electricity markets has experienced increasing complexity as a result of deregulation in recent years. Consequently this affects the multilateral price behaviour across regions with physical exchange of power. It has been documented elsewhere that features such as long memory and regime switching reflecting congestion and non-congestion periods are empirically relevant and hence are features that need to be taken into account when modeling price behavior. In the present paper we further elaborate on the co-existence of long memory and regime switches by focusing on the effect that the direction of possible congestion episodes has on the price dynamics. Under non-congestion prices are identical. The direction of possible congestion is identified by the region with excess demand of power through the sign of price differences and hence three different states can be considered: Non-congestion and congestion periods with excess demand in the one or the other region. Using data from the Nordic power exchange, Nord Pool, we find that the price dynamics and long memory features of the price series generally are rather different across the different states. Also, there is evidence of fractional cointegration at some grid points when conditioning on the states.

Directional Congestion and Regime Switching in a Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices

The functioning of electricity markets has experienced increasing complexity as a result of deregulation in recent years. Consequently this affects the multilateral price behaviour across regions with physical exchange of power. It has been documented elsewhere that features such as long memory and regime switching reflecting congestion and non-congestion periods are empirically relevant and hence are features that need to be taken into account when modeling price behavior. In the present paper we further elaborate on the co-existence of long memory and regime switches by focusing on the effect that the direction of possible congestion episodes has on the price dynamics. Under non-congestion prices are identical. The direction of possible congestion is identified by the region with excess demand of power through the sign of price differences and hence three different states can be considered: Non-congestion and congestion periods with excess demand in the one or the other region. Using data from the Nordic power exchange, Nord Pool, we find that the price dynamics and long memory features of the price series generally are rather different across the different states. Also, there is evidence of fractional cointegration at some grid points when conditioning on the states.

Fractional cointegration and the term structure

According to the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates, the yield spread between long-term and short-term interest rates is an optimal predictor of future changes in short rates over the long-run. Results concerning the empirical validity of this hypothesis are not unanimous. These contradictions may be due to the fact that the traditional concept of cointegration is too restrictive. We refer here to the concept of fractional cointegration introduced by Granger (1986). We study the expectations theory by testing for the existence of a (fractional) cointegration relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates. There is evidence of fractional cointegration between interest rates for the G7 countries, with the exception of Germany.

Long-run purchasing power parity and long-term memory: evidence from Asian newly industrialized countries

Fractional cointegration in a trivariate model is used to test the long-run purchasing power parity hypothesis in four Asian newly industrialized economies. Critical values for the Geweke-Porter-Hudak tests based on Monte Carlo simulations are provided. Evidence of fractional cointegration arises when a linear trend is included. Subperiod analysis indicates that a shift in the exchange rate regime is likely to affect the results of cointegration tests

The Production of Human Capital and the Life Cycle of Earnings

T HE application of capital theory to decisions on individual improvement, and in particular improvement of earning capacity, has provided a framework for the understanding of many aspects of observed behavior regarding education, health, occupational choice, mobility, etc., as rational investment of present resources for the purpose of enjoying future returns. The formulation by Friedman and Kuznets (1945) and the significant development of the theory by Becker (1962, 1964) and Mincer (1958, 1962) provided a novel view of the life cycle of earnings by linking it to the time profile of investment in human capital: People make most of their investments in themselves when they are young, and to a large extent by foregoing current earnings. Observed earnings are therefore relatively low at early years, and they rise as investment declines and as returns on past investments are realized. The main reason why investment is undertaken mostly by the young is that they have a longer period over which they can re-