Evidence Of Persistent Effects Research Articles

Effects of macroeconomic shocks on public debt in Nigeria: a nonlinear structural VAR approach

This study employs a public debt identity in a nonlinear structural VAR to appropriately track Nigeria public debt's evolution. It considers effects of shocks to fiscal policy, inflation, output growth, and debt interest rate on the public debt path. We find that shocks to primary deficits and debt interest rate significantly raise the debt-to-GDP ratio, while output growth and inflation significantly reduce it. All shocks to debt are persistent, but their gradual decay suggests a stable, non-explosive debt path. Future debt projections indicate a sustained increase, averaging 23.3% of GDP between 2017 and 2020. Beyond 2020 debt growth begins to slow, eventually stabilising at 28% - the steady state. Given the evidence of persistent effects of macroeconomic shocks on the debt ratio, we recommend combining a macroprudential framework and effective fiscal rules to mitigate exposure to fiscal shocks and promote a low debt profile.

Concussion history is negatively associated with visual-motor force complexity: evidence for persistent effects on visual-motor integration

ABSTRACTObjectives: Long-term monitoring of concussion recovery requires time- and cost-effective methods. Physiologic complexity may be useful in evaluating visual-motor integration following concussion. The purpose of this study was to quantify the extent to which prior number of concussions influenced visual-motor tracking force complexity.Methods: Thirty-five individuals with a self-reported concussion history (age: 20.92 ± 1.98) and 15 without (age: 20.92 ± 2.21) performed an isometric visual-motor tracking task, using index finger force to trace a straight line across a computer screen. Finger force root mean square error (RMSE), multi-scale complexity, and average power from 0 to 12 Hertz (Hz) were calculated. Individual multiple regressions were fit to these outcomes.Results: Force complexity decreased linearly with an increasing number of concussions (R2 = 0.101). Males had more complex force overall (R2 = 0.219) and greater 4–8 Hz average power (R2 = 0.193). The 8–12 Hz average power decreased significantly for individuals with prior loss of consciousness (LOC) and increasing numbers of concussions (R2 = 0.143).Conclusion: Individuals exhibited linear decreases in visual-motor tracking force complexity with increasing numbers of concussions, influenced by both gender and a history of LOC. These findings indicate cumulative changes in the ways in which previously concussed individuals process and integrate visual information to guide behaviour.