Event Off Research Articles

Chemolithoautotrophic denitrification intensifies nitrogen loss in the Eastern Arabian Sea Shelf waters during sulphidic events

The Eastern Arabian Sea Shelf i.e. Western Indian Continental Shelf (WICS) – a known biogeochemical hotspot is characterized by monsoonal upwelling, seasonal O2 deficiency, extremely high N2O build-up and sulphidic events. The frequency and duration of the sulphidic events have increased over the last two decades, but their impact on the pelagic N cycling, N budget, and N2O dynamics is poorly constrained. Thus, to address these problems and assess their implications on WICS biogeochemistry, we carried out physico-chemical measurements, 15N-labeled incubations and bag incubations on five transects over the shelf during the sulphidic event (September-October) of 2011. We observed very high rates of sulphide-driven chemolithotrophic denitrification (1885–5825 nM N2 d−1) in the sulphidic, nitrate-depleted waters, and its potential occurrence in the sulphide-free, nitrate-replete waters (460–3137 nM N2 d−1), along with high transient N2O production, and comparably low rates of anammox (0–119 nM N2 d−1) and DNRA (0–45 nM N d−1). Despite the predominant cloud cover during the monsoon season, we could for the first time show the satellite image of a large colloidal sulphur (S0) plume associated with the sulphidic event off Western India providing further evidence of extensive sulphide oxidation coupled to denitrification. Sulphide-driven denitrification (mean rate = 2697 nM N2 d−1) appeared to be the dominant N loss process during the anoxic regime (September-October) replacing the chemoorganotrophic (i.e. heterotrophic) denitrification (342 nM N2 d−1) that predominates during the preceding suboxic regime (July-August). Overall, the highest sulphide-driven denitrification rate over the WICS was found to be the second highest among the anoxic coastal systems of the world. Furthermore, simultaneous consumption of NOx− and S2− at a ratio close to the theoretical value in the anaerobic incubations of chemocline waters indicated that the sulphide-driven denitrifiers were fixing carbon. The estimated dark C production (0.21 g C m−2 d−1) due to chemolithoautotrophic denitrification was 18% of the photoautotrophic production and accounted for 15% of the total column productivity. Based on our conservative estimates, the chemolithoautotrophic denitrification was responsible for the removal of 0.4 Tg of fixed N and 0.57 Tg of sulphide, and fixation of 0.1 Tg of carbon annually in the shelf waters. Thus, the sulphidic event impacted the biogeochemistry and ecology, and modulated the N loss pathways and rates over the WICS. With the expansion and intensification of OMZs induced by global climate change, and the spreading of dead zones due to increasing anthropogenic activities, chemolithoautotrophic denitrification is likely to become increasingly significant in oceanic N cycle and impact the N budgets of shallow marine systems particularly.

Halo-independent bounds on the non-relativistic effective theory of WIMP-nucleon scattering from direct detection and neutrino observations

We combine experimental constraints from direct detection searches and from neutrino telescopes looking for WIMP annihilations in the Sun to derive halo-independent bounds on each of the 28 WIMP-proton and WIMP-neutron couplings of the effective non-relativistic Hamiltonian that drives the scattering process off nuclei of a WIMP of spin 1/2. The method assumes that the velocity distribution is normalized to one and homogeneous at the the solar system scale, as well as equilibrium between WIMP capture and annihilation in the Sun, and requires to fix the WIMP annihilation channels (we assume bb̅). We consider a single non-vanishing coupling at a time, and find that for most of the couplings the degree of relaxation of the halo-independent bounds compared to those obtained by assuming the Standard Halo Model is with few exceptions relatively moderate in the low and high WIMP mass regimes, where it can be as small as a factor of ≃ 2, while in the intermediate mass range between 10 GeV and 200 GeV it can be as large as ∼ 103. An exception to this general pattern, with more moderate values of the bound relaxation, is observed in the case of spin-dependent WIMP-proton couplings with no or a comparatively small momentum suppression, for which WIMP capture is strongly enhanced because it is driven by scattering events off 1H , which is the most abundant target in the Sun. Within this class of operators the relaxation is particularly small for interactions that are driven by only the velocity-dependent term, for which the solar capture signal is enhanced compared to the direct detection one, thanks to the highest speed of scattering WIMPs within the Sun due to the larger gravitational acceleration.

Predicted Episode of Submarine Groundwater Discharge Onto the South Carolina, USA, Continental Shelf and Its Effect on Dissolved Oxygen

AbstractSubmarine groundwater discharge (SGD) may directly influence the dissolved oxygen (DO) content of coastal bottom waters. Here, we report a predicted episode of enhanced SGD that caused low DO concentrations on the South Carolina continental shelf. The prediction model linked episodes of SGD to upwelling‐favorable winds. The data revealed these waters were a factor of 2–6 higher in 226Ra and 228Ra compared to typical bottom water values and were significantly depleted in DO (<130 μM). The tight 228Ra:226Ra correlation of these data was similar to values during a strong hypoxic event off SC in 2012. Water ages from 224Ra and 223Ra indicated the event occurred 2–9 days before sampling. The success of the prediction lends added credence to the correlation of upwelling‐favorable winds—but not necessarily accompanied by upwelling—to episodic SGD events. This prediction from wind data represents a major advance for quantifying SGD in the region.

Isolation from a fish kill and transcriptomic characterization of Gyrodinium jinhaense off Long Island Sound

First found in Korean coastal water, the dinoflagellate Gyrodinium jinhaense is a recently established species with unclear global distribution and unexplored genomic characteristics. From a laboratory fish mortality event off Long Island Sound, USA, we isolated a dinoflagellate, and by microscopic and molecular (18S rRNA gene; >99% identical) analyses found that it resembles G. jinhaense, hence named G. jinhaense strain AP17. Towards developing a genetic database for this dinoflagellate, a transcriptome of this species was sequenced using RNA-seq, producing 6 Gbp of data that was assembled into over 70,000 unigenes. The assembled transcriptome GC content was approximately 56% and the total Benchmarking Universal Single-Copy Orthologs for Eukaryota and Alveolata databases were approximately 50% and 57%, respectfully. Genes involved in grazing, energy generation, genome architecture, and protein synthesis, processing, and degradation were highly represented in the transcriptome. Moreover, fragments of polyketide synthase and saxitoxin genes were found but saxitoxins were not detected in high performance liquid chromatography measurements. With the first reported transcriptome for the Gyrodinium genus, this study will serve as a baseline for future Gyrodinium genomics and toxicological studies.

Assessment of the Canary current upwelling system in a regionally coupled climate model

The Canary current upwelling is one of the major eastern boundary coastal upwelling systems in the world, bearing a high productive ecosystem and commercially important fisheries. The Canary current upwelling system (CCUS) has a large latitudinal extension, usually divided into upwelling zones with different characteristics. Eddies, filaments and other mesoscale processes are known to have an impact in the upwelling productivity, thus for a proper representation of the CCUS and high horizontal resolution are required. Here we assess the CCUS present climate in the atmosphere–ocean regionally coupled model. The regional coupled model presents a global oceanic component with increased horizontal resolution along the northwestern African coast, and its performance over the CCUS is assessed against relevant reanalysis data sets and compared with an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and an ensemble of atmosphere-only regional climate models (RCMs) in order to assess the role of the horizontal resolution. The coupled system reproduces the larger scale pattern of the CCUS and its latitudinal and seasonal variability over the coastal band, improving the GCMs outputs. Moreover, it shows a performance comparable to the ensemble of RCMs in representing the coastal wind stress and near-surface air temperature fields, showing the impact of the higher resolution and coupling for CCUS climate modelling. The model is able of properly reproducing mesoscale structures, being able to simulate the upwelling filaments events off Cape Ghir, which are not well represented in most of GCMs. Our results stress the ability of the regionally coupled model to reproduce the larger scale as well as mesoscale processes over the CCUS, opening the possibility to evaluate the climate change signal there with increased confidence.

Recent Changes in the Low-Level Jet along the Subtropical West Coast of South America

Surface winds along the subtropical west coast of South America are characterized by the quasi-weekly occurrences of low-level jet events. These short lived but intense wind events impact the coastal ocean environment. Hence, identifying long-term trends in the coastal low-level jet (CLLJ) is essential for understanding changes in marine ecosystems. Here we use ERA5 reanalysis (1979–2019) and an objective algorithm to track anticyclones to investigate recent changes in CLLJ events off central Chile (25–43 °S). Results present evidence that the number of days with intense wind (≥10 ms−1), and the number and duration of CLLJ events have significantly changed off central Chile in recent decades. There is an increase in the number of CLLJ events in the whole study area during winter (June-July-August; JJA), while during summer (December–January–February; DJF) a decrease is observed at lower latitudes (29–34 °S), and an increase is found at the southern boundary of the Humboldt system. We suggest that changes in the central pressures and frequency of extratropical, migratory anticyclones that reach the coast of South America, which force CLLJs, have played an important role in the recent CLLJ changes observed in this region.

Assessment of marine warming in Indonesia: a case study off the coast of West Sumatra

Over recent decades, warming events in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) have been documented in both the western and eastern IO. However, the manifestation of marine warming events in the Indonesian waters is still lacking in information. This paper presents the first case study of long-term warming events and short-term extreme warming events off the coast of West Sumatra using Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data covering 37 years (1982-2018). A statistical climate toolbox is applied to quantify the marine warming rates, including Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) identification. Decadal trends in marine warming are positive across the study region indicate significant warming rates with the average value of about 0.15°C decade−1. In line with the long-term marine warming, MHW events off West Sumatra has been revealed to be increasing in its occurrences, duration, and intensity. Much of this significant increase in MHW properties has occurred during the period 2015-2018. The MHW events off West Sumatra appear to be influenced by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), particularly during strong El Niño and La Niña periods. These marine warmings trend and MHW events have never been documented and quantified before in the waters around West Sumatra.

Influence of intraseasonal eastern boundary circulation variability on hydrography and biogeochemistry off Peru

Abstract. The intraseasonal evolution of physical and biogeochemical properties during a coastal trapped wave event off central Peru is analysed using data from an extensive shipboard observational programme conducted between April and June 2017, and remote sensing data. The poleward velocities in the Peru–Chile Undercurrent were highly variable and strongly intensified to above 0.5 m s−1 between the middle and end of May. This intensification was likely caused by a first-baroclinic-mode downwelling coastal trapped wave, excited by a westerly wind anomaly at the Equator and originating at about 95∘ W. Local winds along the South American coast did not impact the wave. Although there is general agreement between the observed cross-shore-depth velocity structure of the coastal trapped wave and the velocity structure of first vertical mode solution of a linear wave model, there are differences in the details of the two flow distributions. The enhanced poleward flow increased water mass advection from the equatorial current system to the study site. The resulting shorter alongshore transit times between the Equator and the coast off central Peru led to a strong increase in nitrate concentrations, less anoxic water, likely less fixed nitrogen loss to N2 and a decrease of the nitrogen deficit compared to the situation before the poleward flow intensification. This study highlights the role of changes in the alongshore advection due to coastal trapped waves for the nutrient budget and the cumulative strength of N cycling in the Peruvian oxygen minimum zone. Enhanced availability of nitrate may impact a range of pelagic and benthic elemental cycles, as it represents a major electron acceptor for organic carbon degradation during denitrification and is involved in sulfide oxidation in sediments.

Pengaruh Digital Influencer dan Intensitas Event Terhadap Tingkat Pengetahuan Khalayak di Instagram

The rise of the use of social media Instagram triggers a microcelebrity phenomenon that makes Instagram social media an advertising space. Djarum 76 sees a new opportunity in carrying out promotional activities through Instagram to raise the potential of Djarum 76 target villages spread in Central Java and DIY in the 2019 period. This study aims to determine whether there is an influence between digital influencers on social media Instagram and intensity Festival Heppiii 76 roadshow event to the level of public knowledge about the potential of Djarum 76 fostered villages in Central Java Region 2019 period. This study uses theories of uses and gratifications, digital influencer concepts, events, level of knowledge, integrated marketing communication, sales promotion, and personal sales. This research uses an explanatory quantitative approach with a positivistic paradigm. The results showed the effect of digital influencer activity on the level of knowledge of 0.218. The influence of the intensity of the event off air on the level of knowledge of 0.34. Simultaneous test results show the F value of significance of 0,000, which means that together with the digital influencer activity variable and the intensity of off air events affect the level of public knowledge about the potential of the Djarum 76 Guided Village in Central Java in the 2019 period.

Configuration and structure of the Philippine Sea Plate off Boso, Japan: constraints on the shallow subduction kinematics, seismicity, and slow slip events

We applied tomographic inversion and receiver function analysis to seismic data from ocean-bottom seismometers and land-based stations to understand the structure and its relationship with slow slip events off Boso, Japan. First, we delineated the upper boundary of the Philippine Sea Plate based on both the velocity structure and the locations of the low-angle thrust-faulting earthquakes. The upper boundary of the Philippine Sea Plate is distorted upward by a few kilometers between 140.5 and 141.0°E. We also determined the eastern edge of the Philippine Sea Plate based on the delineated upper boundary and the results of the receiver function analysis. The eastern edge has a northwest–southeast trend between the triple junction and 141.6°E, which changes to a north–south trend north of 34.7°N. The change in the subduction direction at 1–3 Ma might have resulted in the inflection of the eastern edge of the subducted Philippine Sea Plate. Second, we compared the subduction zone structure and hypocenter locations and the area of the Boso slow slip events. Most of the low-angle thrust-faulting earthquakes identified in this study occurred outside the areas of recurrent Boso slow slip events, which indicates that the slow slip area and regular low-angle thrust earthquakes are spatially separated in the offshore area. In addition, the slow slip areas are located only at the contact zone between the crustal parts of the North American Plate and the subducting Philippine Sea Plate. The localization of the slow slip events in the crust–crust contact zone off Boso is examined for the first time in this study. Finally, we detected a relatively low-velocity region in the mantle of the Philippine Sea Plate. The low-velocity mantle can be interpreted as serpentinized peridotite, which is also found in the Philippine Sea Plate prior to subduction. The serpentinized peridotite zone remains after the subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate and is likely distributed over a wide area along the subducted slab.

Kajian Peran Tempat Istirahat (Rest Area) Kendaraan Guna Menurunkan Tingkat Kecelakaan Dan Kelelahan Pengemudi Pada Jalan Tol Ruas Jakarta-Cikampek

gased on statistical data from PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk. In 2010. Factor tops the driver's 1egligence caused the accident Jakarta-Cikampek toll road. A total of 1404 incidents in high:uay accidents caused by driver factor. because of lack of anticipation of the driver when the Jehicle in front will precede the 713 incidents, 620 incidents a sleepy driver, do not order 24 7Jents, 38 events off guard, and drunk six events and other three events. On the factors causng the accident vehicle tire that is 229 events, 67 events from tension brake, skid 51 incidents, )1 incidents of mechanical damage, damage to the engine 7 events and Iain seven events. ::reeways or highways, segments of Jakarta-Cikampek a way that can be traversed at high peed and is able to shorten the travel time of the middle density of public roads. However, this Jjten causes an accident that not a few lives. One contributing factor is fatigue and sleepiness as t travels away from the driver. rhe results of this study is gathering suggestions fram users abaut the existence of the highway rest rrea that can function both associated with a reduction in toll road accident rate and its facilities fesired by the driver when they are in the resting place of the vehicle after releasing tired vehicles. Keywords: Rest, Fatigue, Driver

Outcomes in patients with atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome treated with eculizumab in a long-term observational study

BackgroundThere are limited long-term outcome data in eculizumab-treated patients with atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome (aHUS). We report final results from the largest prospective, observational, multicenter study of patients with aHUS treated with eculizumab.MethodsPatients with aHUS who participated in any of five parent eculizumab trials and received at least one eculizumab infusion were eligible for enrollment in a long-term follow-up study. Rates of thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA) manifestations off versus on eculizumab were evaluated. Additional endpoints included change from baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), long-term renal outcomes, and serious targeted treatment-emergent adverse events.ResultsAmong 93 patients (0–80 years of age), 51 (55%) remained on eculizumab and 42 (45%) discontinued; for those who discontinued, 21 (50%) reinitiated therapy. Patients who reinitiated eculizumab had similar baseline clinical characteristics to patients who remained on eculizumab, with higher likelihood of genetic/autoimmune complement abnormalities, more prior TMAs, and longer disease course versus those who did not reinitiate. Mean eGFR improved rapidly and remained stable for up to 6 years on eculizumab. In patients who discontinued, there was a trend toward decreasing renal function over time from discontinuation. Additionally, off-treatment TMA manifestation rates were higher in those aged < 18 years at diagnosis, with identified genetic/autoimmune complement abnormalities, or history of multiple TMAs prior to eculizumab initiation. The safety profile was consistent with previous studies. Three definite and one possible meningococcal infections related to eculizumab were reported and resolved with treatment. Three deaths unrelated to eculizumab were reported.ConclusionsThe current study confirms the efficacy and safety of eculizumab in aHUS, particularly with regard to long-term renal function and TMA events. Pediatric age at disease onset and presence of genetic or autoimmune complement abnormalities are risk factors for TMA events off treatment. Overall, patients who discontinue eculizumab may be at risk for additional TMA manifestations and renal function decreases. Discontinuation of eculizumab, with careful monitoring, is an option in select patients with consideration of patient preference, organ function normalization, and risk factors for relapse, including mutational analysis, age of onset, and history of multiple TMA episodes.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.govNCT01522170, January 31, 2012.

Physical-biological interactions in the ocean: case studies from the northern Canary Current Upwelling Ecosystem

Physical-biological interactions in the ocean: case studies from the northern Canary Current Upwelling Ecosystem

Diagnostic yield of ambulatory oesophageal studies on versus off proton pump inhibitors: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Patients with persistent gastroesophageal reflux disease symptoms despite proton pump inhibitors are increasingly encountered. It remains controversial if proton pump inhibitors should be stopped before functional oesophageal tests. This meta-analysis compares the positive yield of oesophageal studies performed off versus on proton pump inhibitors. Pubmed, Embase and the Cochrane Library were searched for eligible studies. Outcomes assessed were the number of subjects with: elevated oesophageal acid exposure time when studied off versus on proton pump inhibitors; positive symptom index (≥50%) and/or positive symptom association probability (≥95%) for acid reflux; and/or non-acid reflux events off versus on proton pump inhibitors. The random effects model was applied. Fifteen studies (n = 5033 individuals; 33% on proton pump inhibitors; 32% men; mean age 52.1 years) were analysed. Pooled risk ratio for the comparison of high oesophageal acid exposure time off versus on proton pump inhibitors was 2.16 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.42-3.28). The risk ratio of a positive symptom index (acid reflux) was 2.64 (95% CI 1.52-4.57) and the risk ratio of a positive symptom association probability (acid reflux) was 2.94 (95% CI 2.31-3.74). Conversely, the risk ratio of a positive symptom index (non-acid reflux) was 0.96 (95% CI 0.49-1.88) and risk ratio of a positive symptom association probability (non-acid reflux) was 0.54 (95% CI 0.30-0.99). Oesophageal studies after proton pump inhibitor cessation improve the positive yield for acid reflux-related events but reduce the detection of symptomatic non-acid reflux events.

Angiotensin 1-7 ameliorates 6-hydroxydopamine lesions in hemiparkinsonian rats through activation of MAS receptor/PI3K/Akt/BDNF pathway and inhibition of angiotensin II type-1 receptor/NF-κB axis

MAS receptor (MASR), expressed in several brain areas, conferred neuroprotection against neurodegenerative disorders when activated by angiotensin (Ang) 1-7; however, its role in Parkinson’s disease (PD) remains elusive. Intra-striatal post-administration of Ang1-7, using a 6-hydroxydopamine (OHDA) PD model, improved motor performance and muscle coordination. On the molecular level, Ang1-7 upregulated the striatal expression of MASR and caused upsurge in its downstream targets (p-PI3K/p-Akt/p-CREB/BDNF) to phosphorylate TrKB, which in a positive feedback upregulates MASR. Moreover, Ang1-7 increased substantia nigral tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) expression and striatal dopamine (DA) content to indicate the preservation of the dopaminergic neuronal signal. This effect extended to inhibit the striatal expression of Ang II type-1 receptor (AT-1R) to hold the neurodegenerative effect and to boost Ang1-7 anti-inflammatory/antioxidant effects by abating NADPH oxidase, along with lipid peroxidation. Indeed, Ang1-7 was able to decrease p-MAPK p38/NF-κB p65 to level the inflammatory and oxidative stress events off. The Ang1-7-mediated activation of MASR cue and the suppression of the AT-1R cascade were partially reversed by the intrastartial injection of A-779, a MASR antagonist. The current data suggests a novel therapeutic potential for the Ang1-7 against neurotoxicity associated motor impairment related to PD. The anti-parkinsonian effect of Ang1-7, is in part, mediated by its binding to MASR and the initiation of PI3K/Akt/CREB/BDNF/TrKB cue to increase DA synthesis, besides the downregulation/inhibition of AT-1R/MAPK p38/NF-κB p65/NADPH oxidase pathway.

Variability of the Space‐Time Evolution of Slow Slip Events Off the Boso Peninsula, Central Japan, From 1996 to 2014

AbstractGlobal Navigation Satellite System data are inverted to investigate the space‐time evolution of five Mw 6.6–6.7 slow slip events (SSEs) off the Boso Peninsula, central Japan, in 1996, 2002, 2007, 2011, and 2013–2014. Our analyses reveal that the nucleation style and space‐time evolution of slip vary among the five SSEs. The 2002, 2007, and 2011 SSEs nucleated more rapidly, with moment accelerations higher than those of the 1996 SSE by a factor of ∼2–6, and higher than those of the 2013–2014 SSE by an order of magnitude. Furthermore, the 2002, 2007, and 2011 SSEs exhibited more rapid temporal variations in their slip and moment rates and showed larger seismic moments and higher maximum slip rates than the 1996 and 2013–2014 SSEs, suggesting that the overall evolution of the SSEs is correlated with the nucleation style. The along‐strike expansion/propagation of slip is identified for the five SSEs, revealing that the expansion/propagation patterns vary from event to event. The earthquake swarms accompanying the SSEs occurred near the downdip edge of high‐slip‐rate areas, and the seismicity migrated during slow slip with directions and speeds similar to those of the slip expansion/propagation. These space‐time correlations between seismicity and slow slip suggest that the earthquake swarms were triggered by stress changes due to slow slip. The relative timing between the onsets of the SSEs and their associated seismicity varies from event to event and appears to be correlated with the nucleation style of the SSEs.

Last Interglacial (MIS5e) hydrographic shifts linked to meltwater discharges from the East Greenland margin

Proximal evidence of the surface ocean response to size reduction of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) during the Last Interglacial (MIS5e) and preceding glacial termination (T2) remains largely elusive. Using a new sediment record from the western Iceland Sea, the behavior of the northeastern GIS and its relation to the subpolar North Atlantic surface hydrography is examined. Extremely light oxygen isotopic (δ18O) values are found off central East Greenland during early MIS5e and point to enhanced meltwater release, potentially from the northeastern sector of the GIS. Data from downstream the cold East Greenland Current (EGC) and its eastward branches suggest a far-reaching effect of this meltwater not only in the Nordic Seas but also in the SE Labrador Sea. In particular, whereas an early MIS5e warming (at ∼128.5–126.5 ka) in the two regions coincided with the relative reduction of meltwater input into the EGC, the subsequent cooling noted at ∼126.5 ka followed a renewed major freshwater event off central East Greenland. Our data further indicate persistent freshwater influence from the East Greenland margin over the entire MIS5e interval and, in addition, also reveal a late MIS5e meltwater event. The latter event occurred just prior to the last glacial inception and emphasizes the importance of Greenland meltwater as forcing factor on Interglacial climates.

The Principle of Common Cause and its Advantages and Limitations in Screening the Correlated Events off

The Principle of Common Cause and its Advantages and Limitations in Screening the Correlated Events off

Modelling Pseudo-nitzschia events off southwest Ireland

Toxic and non-toxic Pseudo-nitzschia blooms are common in coastal waters worldwide including Ireland. Off southwest Ireland, the timing of blooms on a weekly scale is highly variable, while the seasonal pattern is more regular with a bimodal distribution. Upwelling conditions are closely linked to Pseudo-nitzschia blooms. The work presented here describes a mathematical model, a Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Model, employed to forecast the onset, abundance and duration of Pseudo-nitzschia blooms in the bays of southwest Ireland. Variables used in the model included field observations of Pseudo-nitzschia, sea surface temperature and wind. The estimated model reveals that, on average, cell levels on a given day depend on sea surface temperature, the value of a wind index on the previous day and the number of Pseudo-nitzschia in the water the previous week. The model forecast performed well for the onset and duration of blooms. However, the magnitude of blooms was sometimes underestimated by the model.

The Dependence of QPF on the Choice of Boundary- and Surface-Layer Parameterization for a Lake-Effect Snowstorm

AbstractSix forecasts of a lake-effect-snow event off Lake Erie were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to determine how the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) was affected when the boundary- and surface-layer parameterization schemes were changed. These forecasts showed strong variability, with differences in liquid-equivalent precipitation maxima in excess of 20 mm over a 6-h period. The quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE) schemes produced the highest accumulations, and the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) schemes produced the lowest. Differences in precipitation were primarily due to different sensible heat flux FH and moisture flux FQ off the lake, with lower FH and FQ in MYNN leading to comparatively weak low-level instability and, consequently, reduced ascent and production of hydrometeors. The different FH and FQ were found to have two causes. In QNSE, the higher FH and FQ were due to the decision to use a Prandtl number PR of 0.72 (all other schemes use a PR of 1). In MYNN, the lower FH and FQ were due to the manner in which the similarity stability function for heat ψh is functionally dependent on the temperature gradient between the surface and the lowest model layer. It is not known what assumptions are more accurate for environments that are typical for lake-effect snow, but comparisons with available observations and Rapid-Update-Cycle analyses indicated that MYNN had the most accurate results.