Event History Models Research Articles

“Like two peas in a pod?” Homogamous personalities, education, and union dissolution

This paper examines the association between the level of similarity in the “Big Five” personality traits of the partners in different-sex couples and their risk of union dissolution. Prior research has mainly focused on homogamy in socio-economic, demographic, and cultural characteristics, such as age, education, employment, and religion. The few studies on the effects of homogamy in the personalities of the partners on separation find mixed results. We extend on this by analysing the moderating effect of education. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for the 2005–2019 period, we follow 3958 coresidential couples and observe 534 separations. Personality is measured via the “Big Five” personality traits. We estimate discrete-time event history models for union dissolution. In addition to reporting the main effects, we calculate interactions between personality and the level of education of the partners. Our results indicate that greater dissimilarity with regard to the personality trait “openness” is associated with a higher probability to separate. However, analysing interaction effects reveals that this is relevant mainly among medium educated men. Moreover, persons with high education seem to be less likely to separate if they are dissimilar from their partner in their level of “extraversion”. These findings suggest that relationship dynamics differ across educational groups.

Why Are Children of Immigrants Less Geographically Mobile? Examining the Role of Economic Disadvantage and Family Networks

Previous work has found that adult children of international migrants in Western Europe have lower internal migration rates than individuals of native origin. This gap is important for differences in well-being, educational opportunities, and labor market outcomes. So far, however, little is known about the reasons for the greater geographical stability of migrant children. Theories suggest that structural differences such as economic resources as well as preferences for living near family may explain their lower internal migration rates. The current study tests these explanations by examining unique longitudinal register data from the Netherlands in which we follow the internal migration trajectories of people aged 18–50 in an observation window of 16 years between 2006 and 2022. We compare individuals of native origin with children of immigrants from Turkey and Morocco, two of the largest migrant populations in the country. Event history models confirmed that once socio-demographic characteristics were controlled for, children of migrants were less likely to migrate internally than individuals of native origin. Mediation analysis showed that economic resources did not explain the negative association; instead, the lower migration rates observed among children of migrants were mediated by geographical proximity to kin. Because migrant family networks are more geographically concentrated, children of migrants are more often discouraged from moving away. These findings highlight the pivotal role of family networks in explaining migrant-native differences in migration decision-making.

Own depression, partner's depression, and childlessness: A nationwide register-based study

Depression and other mental health disorders are increasing while childlessness is increasing. However, this relationship has rarely been studied. We examine how depression, as measured by antidepressant use, is related to childlessness. We add to the previous research by examining both the role of current partnership status and having a partner with depression as a mechanism.We use Finnish total population register data for cohorts born in 1977–1980. We estimate discrete time event history models for the likelihood of having a child with average marginal effects separately for men and women. Depression was measured annually with a time-varying indicator of having at least one purchase of antidepressants in the preceding year.We find a positive association between depression and childlessness; the annual probability of having a child was 2.7 percentage points lower for women with depression and 1.6 percentage points for men with depression in age-controlled models. When controlling for all background variables such as education, the likelihood of having a child was 1.9 percentage points lower for women with depression and 0.3 percentage points lower for men with depression. In total, 41% of men and 26% of women who had used antidepressant medication between ages 18–38 remained childless at age 39, compared to 30% of men and 22% of women who had not used antidepressant medication. We also find that a partner's depression increases the probability of being childless, and the likelihood of being childless is even higher if both an individual and their partner had depression.

Family Formation and Employment Changes Among Descendants of Immigrants in France: A Multiprocess Analysis

This paper investigates the association between family formation and the labour market trajectories of immigrants’ descendants over the life course. Using rich data from the Trajectories and Origins survey from France, we apply multilevel event history models to analyse the transitions in and out of employment for both men and women by parity. We account for unobserved co-determinants of childbearing and employment by applying a simultaneous-equations modelling. Our analysis shows that women’s professional careers are negatively associated with childbirth. There are differences across descendant groups. The female descendants of Turkish immigrants are more likely to exit employment and less likely to re-enter employment following childbirth than women from other groups. The negative impact of childbearing on employment is slightly overestimated among women due to unobserved selection effects. Among men, the descendants of European immigrants are less likely to exit employment after having a child than other descendant groups. The study demonstrates the negative effect of childbearing on women’s employment, which is pronounced for some minority groups suggesting the need for further policies to help women reconcile work with family life.

The influence of follower reactions on political leaders’ environmental policy communication: toward a social-mediated dynamic influence framework

ABSTRACT This study proposes that social-mediated leadership communication is a dynamic influence process, involving visible leader communications, follower emotional responses, and subsequent leader actions. These interactions form a feedback loop, where follower reactions influence leaders' strategic communication. We tested this framework by analyzing U.S. political leaders' engagement with the Green New Deal during the 2020 Presidential campaign. Using Facebook posts from congressional politicians and data on follower reactions, we applied longitudinal network models, natural language processing, and multilevel event history models to examine factors behind leaders' decisions to co-share content and discuss specific policy topics. Our findings support the dynamic influence framework, showing that follower reactions, especially those indicating support and boosting message virality, are most likely to prompt shifts in leaders’ communication strategies.

Why do autocracies enfranchise their citizens abroad? A large-N event history analysis, 1990–2010

ABSTRACT Autocratic ruling elites allow elections as a survival strategy. Many authoritarian regimes have taken this tactic one step further, also inviting their diaspora to vote from afar. This may seem puzzling given that elections abroad are difficult to control and provide a platform for exiled regime critics. So far, however, the reasons for autocracies to grant their diaspora voting rights have rarely been explored. In this article, we address this shortcoming. We employ a cross-national, autocratic regime dataset and a discrete-time event history model. We argue that autocracies use diaspora suffrage to repress and co-opt their citizens abroad while legitimizing their rule domestically and internationally. Autocrats are risk-averse and the decision to enfranchise hinges on the characteristics of the diaspora and the regime’s need for legitimacy, repression and co-optation after power transitions. We substantiate these claims by demonstrating that autocrats are less likely to enfranchise a diaspora that largely resides in democracies or consists of refugees in democracies. In turn, successful coups render diaspora suffrage adoption more probable. In sum, external voting rights present a critical case to better understand why authoritarian states adopt democratic institutions and wish to connect with their internationally mobile population.

Fertility responses to short-term economic stress: Price volatility and wealth shocks in a pre-transitional settler colony

This paper examines the effects of short-term economic stress, captured by general price volatility and a negative wealth shock on short-run fertility behavior in the rural pre-transitional society of the Cape Colony. First, we link complete birth histories of settler women from the South African Families database to consumer price index data to examine the effect of price volatility on conceptions. Next, we link the same birth histories to slave owner and slave emancipation data to examine the effect of a negative wealth shock on conception. Upon slave emancipation in 1834, former slave owners received on average only between 40 and 50 % of the market value of their slaves as compensation, resulting in a substantial reduction in their wealth. Relying on event history models that look simultaneously at stopping and spacing, we do not find strong evidence in support of fertility control in response to general price volatility. We do find greater variance in birth interval lengths for former slaveholding households during and immediately after emancipation, suggesting that a negative wealth shock is associated with increased fertility limitation through postponement in this context.

Self-Managed Abortion Attempts Before vs After Changes in Federal Abortion Protections in the US

With decreasing access to facility-based abortion in the US, an increase in self-managed abortion (SMA) using various methods is anticipated. To date, no studies have examined changes in SMA in the shifting policy landscape. To estimate changes in SMA prevalence among the general US population from before to after the Supreme Court's June 2022 decision overturning federal abortion protections. Serial cross-sectional surveys were administered throughout the US from December 10, 2021, to January 11, 2022, and June 14 to July 7, 2023. Participants included online panel members assigned female sex at birth, ages 18 to 49 years (or ages 15-17 years if a household member), who were English- or Spanish-speaking. Year of the survey (2021-2022 vs 2023). Participants were asked whether they had "ever taken or done something on their own, without medical assistance, to try to end a pregnancy" and, if so, details of their experience. Changes in the weighted SMA prevalence between survey years were examined, factors associated with SMA experience were identified, and projected lifetime SMA prevalence was calculated using discrete-time event history models, accounting for abortion underreporting. Median age of the participants was 32.5 (IQR, 25-41) years in 2021-2022 (n = 7016) and 32.0 (IQR, 24-40) in 2023 (n = 7148). Across both years, approximately 14% were non-Hispanic Black, 21% were Hispanic, and 54% were non-Hispanic White. The weighted adjusted proportion that ever attempted SMA was 2.4% (95% CI, 1.9%-3.0%) in 2021-2022 and 3.4% (95% CI, 2.8%-4.0%) in 2023-an increase of 1.0% (95% CI, 0.2%-1.7%; P = .03). Projected lifetime SMA prevalence accounting for abortion underreporting was 10.7% (95% CI, 8.6%-12.8%). In adjusted analyses, SMA experience was higher among non-Hispanic Black (4.3%; 95% CI, 2.8%-5.8%) vs other racial and ethnic (2.7%; 95% CI, 2.2%-3.1%) groups (P = .04) and sexual and gender minority (5.0%; 95% CI, 3.4%-6.6%) vs heterosexual or cisgender (2.5%; 95% CI, 2.0%-2.9%) participants (P < .001). Approximately 4 in 10 (45.3% in 2021 and 39.0% in 2023) SMA attempts occurred before age 20 years. The methods used included herbs (29.8% [2021-2022] vs 25.9% [2023]), physical methods (28.6% [2021-2022] vs 29.7% [2023]), or alcohol or other substances (17.9% [2021-2022] vs 18.6% [2023]). Few participants (7.1% [2021-2022] vs 4.7% [2023]) sought emergency care for a complication. In this serial nationally representative survey study, increased SMA was observed following the loss of federal abortion protections. The findings revealed increased SMA use among marginalized groups, most often with ineffective methods. These findings suggest the need to expand access to alternative models of safe and effective abortion care and ensure those seeking health care post-SMA do not face legal risks.

Job insecurity as a predictor of gray divorce: a gendered dyadic analysis

Abstract Divorce among older adults—known as gray divorce—is increasingly common; however, we have a relative gap in knowledge about predictors of gray divorce. Job insecurity, a pervasive and disruptive work-related exposure, may be a salient predictor of divorce among older couples for whom job loss can be particularly detrimental. Using longitudinal dyadic data from the Health and Retirement Study (1998–2020), the present study examined whether labor force status and job insecurity were prospectively associated with the risk of divorce in mid to later life, with attention to differences based on gender (n = 10,446 couples). Discrete-time event history models linked husbands’ and wives’ labor force status and job insecurity with subsequent odds of divorce in mid to later life. Findings show that husbands’ part-time employment, unemployment, and disability status were risk factors for divorce. Wives’ work disability also increased the risk of divorce, whereas wives’ retirement and exclusion from the labor force were protective against divorce. Husbands’ exposure to objective job insecurity (shorter job tenure) and perceived job insecurity were associated with divorce in mid to later life, whereas the adverse consequence of wives’ exposure to shorter job tenure reduced to non-significance with the inclusion of covariates. The present study documents previously untested predictors of gray divorce, finding that work-related factors may be an area of vulnerability for marriages in later life. Understanding the linkages between job insecurity and divorce is important because job insecurity is pervasive and divorce can contribute to declines in health and well-being.

Economic crises and the survival of international organizations

How do hard economic times affect countries’ foreign policy and, specifically, their international commitments? Although a large body of literature assumes that economic crises lead to the prioritization of domestic politics at the expense of international cooperation, these claims are rarely subjected to systematic empirical tests. This study examines one important aspect of these relationships: the consequences of economic crises for the survival of international organizations (IOs), a question that attracted only scant scholarly attention to date. Theoretically, we argue that even though economic crises can weaken member states’ commitment to IOs, they also underscore their ability to tackle the root causes of such crises and mitigate their most pernicious effects. As such, economic crises are actually conducive to IO longevity. We expect this effect to be especially pronounced for currency crises, IOs with an economic mandate, and regional IOs, given their particular relevance for international cooperation during hard economic times. These conjectures are tested with a comprehensive sample of IOs and data on currency, banking and sovereign debt crises from 1970 to 2014. Using event history models and controlling for several alternative explanations of IO survival, we find ample empirical support for the theoretical expectations.

Reassessing Chronic Strain: A Research Note on Women's Income Dynamics After Divorce and Separation

The economic consequences of divorce and separation for women are commonly associated with the chronic strain model, according to which women's losses are large and persistent. This research note shifts the focus to a crisis model highlighting women's potential of, and routes to, recovery from initial losses. Drawing on German Socio-Economic Panel data (1984–2021) on women in marital and cohabiting unions (N ∼ 27,000 women, N ∼ 3,400 divorces and separations), we use fixed-effects regression models and event-history models to analyze changes in equivalized monthly household income and poverty risk across the process of divorce and separation. Results show that most women recovered from their initial economic declines. Although initial losses were common and often sizable, large fractions of women eventually returned to or exceeded the household income expected in the absence of divorce and separation. Recovery was facilitated by the “traditional” route of repartnering and the “modern” route of women mobilizing their productive skills. Both routes appeared more important than the absence of barriers, such as children in the household. We conclude that for the majority of women, the economic consequences of divorce and separation are better described as a temporary crisis than as a chronic strain.

Latent event history models for quasi-reaction systems

Various processes, such as cell differentiation and disease spreading, can be modelled as quasi-reaction systems of particles using stochastic differential equations. The existing Local Linear Approximation (LLA) method infers the parameters driving these systems from measurements of particle abundances over time. While dense observations of the process in time should in theory improve parameter estimation, LLA fails in these situations due to numerical instability. Defining a latent event history model of the underlying quasi-reaction system resolves this problem. A computationally efficient Expectation-Maximization algorithm is proposed for parameter estimation, incorporating an extended Kalman filter for evaluating the latent reactions. A simulation study demonstrates the method's performance and highlights the settings where it is particularly advantageous compared to the existing LLA approaches. An illustration of the method applied to the diffusion of COVID-19 in Italy is presented.

On the Timing of Marriage and Childbearing: Family Formation Pathways Among Immigrants in Switzerland.

This paper examines childbearing in and outside of marriage as a manifestation of the Second Demographic Transition among immigrant populations in Switzerland. Based on full-population register data, we simultaneously analyse fertility and partnership changes at different stages of the migration process. Results from a multistate event history model show that most of the differences in family formation patterns between migrant groups and natives are in the sequencing of marriage and first birth among childless unmarried women. Out of wedlock family trajectories prove to be a common experience for European migrants, but a sustainable family pathway only among natives, as well as among immigrants from France, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Among married women, it is the risk of a third birth that marks the differences between groups; first and second birth rates are relatively similar across migrant groups. Distinguishing between the transition patterns of newly arrived immigrants and settled immigrants (characterised by various residence durations) support the disruption hypothesis among EU migrants and the interrelated life events hypothesis among non-EU groups. Family size and the partnership context of fertility highlight which family regime prevails in different population subgroups and the role that immigrants play in the Second Demographic Transition and family transformation in Europe.

Conditions for enduring peace: power-sharing and amnesty provisions

ABSTRACT Current scholarly literature posits that power-sharing agreements can be an important tool for reducing the chances of repeated civil wars. This study aims to find out what conditions influence the chances of successful power-sharing agreements. I test the effect of amnesty that is accompanied by power-sharing agreements when civil wars end with negotiated settlements. I analyse in particular 64 power-sharing agreements that ended civil wars between 1989 and 2006, using the event history model. The Weibull regression analysis indicates that power-sharing agreements are more likely to decrease the chances of repeated civil wars by relieving security concerns among former warring parties.

From collective centres to private accommodation: housing trajectories of asylum migrants in Switzerland

This paper examines the housing trajectories of complete cohorts of asylum migrants in Switzerland. It emphasizes the logistics of housing allocation by local authorities and how it shapes individual opportunity structure. We use full-population register data and analyse one key transition: the transition out of collective centre assigned upon arrival to the private and subsidized housing sectors. Event history models show the association between individual and contextual factors and the speed of access to private housing. Despite the quasi-autonomous management of refugee housing by region, priority rules regarding access to private housing were found to apply across the country. When choosing between different profiles, women, older asylum migrants, married individuals, and members of larger national groups are favoured in obtaining access to private housing. Nevertheless, the time spent in collective centres largely depends on the region to which a claimant is assigned, pointing to the minimal agency asylum migrants have during their first years of residence.

Perceived Discrimination and Incident Dementia Among Older Adults in the United States: The Buffering Role of Social Relationships.

Recent studies have found that perceived discrimination as a chronic stressor predicts poorer cognitive health. However, little research has investigated how social relationships as potential intervening mechanisms may mitigate or exacerbate this association. Using a nationally representative sample of U.S. older adults, this study examined how the existence and quality of 4 types of relationships-with a partner, children, other family members, and friends-may modify the impact of perceived discrimination on incident dementia. We analyzed data from the 2006 to 2016 Health and Retirement Study (N = 12,236) using discrete-time event history models with competing risks. We used perceived discrimination, social relationships, and their interactions at the baseline to predict the risk of incident dementia in the follow-ups. Perceived discrimination predicted a higher risk of incident dementia in the follow-ups. Although having a partner or not did not modify this association, partnership support attenuated the negative effects of discrimination on incident dementia. Neither the existence nor quality of relationships with children, other family members, or friends modified the association. Our findings imply that intimate partnership plays a critical role in coping with discrimination and, consequently, influencing the cognitive health of older adults. Although perceived discrimination is a significant risk factor for the incidence of dementia, better partnership quality may attenuate this association. Policies that eliminate discrimination and interventions that strengthen intimate partnerships may facilitate better cognitive health in late life.

Leaving home across the recent cohorts in Italy: does economic vulnerability due to labour market status matter?

We focus on the process of leaving home among young Italians and aim to discern: (a) the extent to which the potential economic vulnerability associated with certain individual labour market conditions affects the pathway of leaving the parental home; (b) whether the impact of such conditions has changed over generations of young adults. Data come from the pooling of two cross-sectional rounds of the ‘Families and Social Subjects’ survey conducted by the Italian National Institute of Statistics in 2009 and 2016. Specifically, we consider young adults who at the time of interview were between the ages of 20 and 44, for a total of 22,218 respondents. We employ discrete-time event history models, including a competing risks approach. Our findings suggest that labour market status differs in its influence according to reason for exit and gender. While we observe a clearly negative impact of being out of the labour market for both union and non-union related reasons for men, this negative impact is observed only for non-union-related motives for women. Meanwhile, economic uncertainty connected with precarious jobs does not necessarily have a negative impact on the risk of leaving parental home, both for union and non-union related reasons. Furthermore, we see signs of differences across cohorts relative to this latter set of motives for men. The results highlight the importance of considering reasons for exit in analyses of departure from the parental home.

Societal Pessimism and the Transition to Parenthood: A Future Too Bleak to Have Children?

AbstractContemporary adults often cite economic uncertainty, global warming, and increasing inequality as reasons for intending not to have children. Despite extensive research on the impact of societal pessimism on attitudes towards out‐group members, political preferences, and voting behaviors, its impact on demographic behaviors, such as fertility, has received little attention. This study examines the relationship between societal pessimism—captured through individuals' negative perception of the future of the next generation—and their likelihood of becoming a parent. Using data from the Dutch Longitudinal Internet studies for the Social Sciences (LISS), we use discrete‐time event history models to estimate the probability of becoming a parent in a given year based on respondents' self‐reported negative assessment of the future of the next generation in six distinct areas. Our results demonstrate that perceiving the future of the coming generation as worse than today is associated with a lower probability of becoming a parent. These findings suggest that surveys aimed at understanding fertility behaviors should incorporate questions about individuals' perceptions of the future, in addition to their own contemporaneous conditions.

Partnership Dynamics of LGB People and Heterosexuals: Patterns of First Partnership Formation and First Cohabitation

In this study we examine partnership dynamics among people with different sexual orientations in Germany. More specifically, we explore the process of first partnership formation and first cohabitation among men and women who self-identify as heterosexual, homosexual or bisexual. Given the various discriminations against same-sex lifestyles, and the limited opportunities to meet potential partners, we assume that lesbian, gay and bisexual (LGB) people form partnerships later in life and less frequently than heterosexuals. We further expect that the constantly improving social and legal climate for sexual minorities will lead to a reduction in differences in partnership behaviour by sexual orientation. We use retrospectively reported partnership biographies from the German Socio-Economic Panel, which was supplemented in 2019 with a boost sample of sexual and gender minority households. Using discrete-time event history models, we analyse nearly 15,000 episodes of being single and nearly 20,000 episodes of living without a partner in the household. Around 4.5% of these episodes are from people who self-identify as LGB. The results clearly show that patterns of partnership and coresidential union formation differ by sexual orientation. People with a homosexual orientation—and to a lesser extent people with a bisexual orientation—are less likely to enter into a first partnership and a first cohabitation than people with a heterosexual orientation. Significant changes occur across cohorts: LGB people from younger birth cohorts enter (cohabiting) partnerships much earlier and more frequently than those from older cohorts. Thus, the union formation patterns of LGB and straight people have converged slightly.

Mortality risk following end-of-life caregiving: A population-based analysis of hospice users and their families

Experiencing the death of a family member and providing end-of-life caregiving can be stressful on families – this is well-documented in both the caregiving and bereavement literatures. Adopting a linked-lived theoretical perspective, exposure to the death and dying of one family member could be conceptualized as a significant life stressor that produces short and long-term health consequences for surviving family members. This study uses familial-linked administrative records from the Utah Population Database to assess how variations in family hospice experiences affect mortality risk for surviving spouses and children. A cohort of hospice decedents living in Utah between 1998 and 2016 linked to their spouses and adult children (n = 37,271 pairs) provides an ideal study population because 1) hospice typically involves family members in the planning and delivery of end-of-life care, and 2) hospice admission represents a conscious awareness and acknowledgment that the decedent is entering an end-of-life experience. Thus, hospice duration (measured as the time between admission and death) is a precise measure of the family's exposure to an end-of-life stressor. Linking medical records, vital statistics, and other administrative microdata to describe decedent-kin pairs, event-history models assessed how hospice duration and characteristics of the family, including familial network size and coresidence with the decedent, were associated with long-term mortality risk of surviving daughters, sons, wives (widows), and husbands (widowers). Longer hospice duration increased mortality risk for daughters and husbands, but not sons or wives. Having other family members in the state was protective, and living in the same household as the decedent prior to death was a risk factor for sons. We conclude that relationship type and sex likely modify the how of end-of-life stressors (i.e., potential caregiving demands and bereavement experiences) affect health because of normative gender roles. Furthermore, exposure to dementia deaths may be particularly stressful, especially for women.