Evaluation Of Precipitation Estimates Research Articles

Evaluation of Precipitation Estimates from Remote Sensing and Artificial Neural Network Based Products (PERSIANN) Family in an Arid Region

Accurate and continuous rainfall monitoring is essential for effective water resources management, especially in arid and semi-arid regions such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Significant spatio-temporal precipitation variation in the UAE necessitates the use of the latest techniques to measure rainfall intensity accurately. This study investigates the consistency and applicability of four satellite precipitation products, namely PERSIANN, PERSIANN-CCS, PERSIANN-CDR, and PDIR-Now, over the UAE. Daily time series data from 2011 to 2020 were analyzed using various statistical measures and climate indices to develop the belief in the products and for their inter-comparison. The analysis revealed that the average probability of detection (POD) for PDIR and CDR was the highest, with values ranging from 0.7–0.9 and 0.6–0.9, respectively. Similarly, CDR has a better Heidke Skill Score (HSS) with an average value of 0.26. CDR outperformed its counterparts with an average correlation coefficient value of 0.70 vs. 0.65, 0.40, and 0.34 for PDIR, CCS, and PERSIANN, respectively. Precipitation indices analysis revealed that all the products overestimated the number of consecutive wet days by 15–20%, while underestimating consecutive dry days by 5–10%. The quantitative estimations indicate that all the products were matching with the gauge values during the wet months (January–April), while they showed significant overestimation during the dry months. CDR and PDIR were in close agreement with the gauge data in terms of maximum daily rainfall with an error of less than 10% for both products. As compared to others, PERSIANN-CDR provided better estimates, particularly in terms of capturing extreme rainfall events and spatial distribution of rainfall. This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of four PERSIANN family products based on recent daily rainfall data of UAE. The findings can provide future insights into the applicability and improvement of PERSIANN products in arid and semi-arid regions.

Evaluation of precipitation estimates over CONUS derived from satellite, radar, and rain gauge data sets at daily to annual scales (2002–2012)

Abstract. We use a suite of quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) derived from satellite, radar, and surface observations to derive precipitation characteristics over the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 2002–2012. This comparison effort includes satellite multi-sensor data sets (bias-adjusted TMPA 3B42, near-real-time 3B42RT), radar estimates (NCEP Stage IV), and rain gauge observations. Remotely sensed precipitation data sets are compared with surface observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCN-D) and from the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model). The comparisons are performed at the annual, seasonal, and daily scales over the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) for CONUS. Annual average rain rates present a satisfying agreement with GHCN-D for all products over CONUS (±6%). However, differences at the RFC are more important in particular for near-real-time 3B42RT precipitation estimates (−33 to +49%). At annual and seasonal scales, the bias-adjusted 3B42 presented important improvement when compared to its near-real-time counterpart 3B42RT. However, large biases remained for 3B42 over the western USA for higher average accumulation (≥ 5 mm day−1) with respect to GHCN-D surface observations. At the daily scale, 3B42RT performed poorly in capturing extreme daily precipitation (> 4 in. day−1) over the Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, the conditional analysis and a contingency analysis conducted illustrated the challenge in retrieving extreme precipitation from remote sensing estimates.

Evaluation of Precipitation Estimates by at-Launch Codes of GPM/DPR Algorithms Using Synthetic Data from TRMM/PR Observations

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory will carry a Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) consisting of a Ku-band precipitation radar (KuPR) and a Ka-band precipitation radar (KaPR). In this study, “at-launch” codes of DPR precipitation algorithms, which will be used in GPM ground systems at launch, were evaluated using synthetic data based upon the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) data. Results from the codes (Version 4.20131010) of the KuPR-only, KaPR-only, and DPR algorithms were compared with “true values” calculated based upon drop size distributions assumed in the synthetic data and standard results from the TRMM algorithms at an altitude of 2 km over the ocean. The results indicate that the total precipitation amounts during April 2011 from the KuPR and DPR algorithms are similar to the true values, whereas the estimates from the KaPR data are underestimated. Moreover, the DPR estimates yielded smaller precipitation rates for rates less than about 10 mm/h and greater precipitation rates above 10 mm/h. Underestimation of the KaPR estimates was analyzed in terms of measured radar reflectivity (Z <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">m</sub> ) of the KaPR at an altitude of 2 km. The underestimation of the KaPR data was most pronounced during strong precipitation events of Z <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">m</sub> <; 18 dBZ (high attenuation cases) over heavy precipitation areas in the Tropics, whereas the underestimation was less pronounced when the Z <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">m</sub> > 26 (moderate attenuation cases). The results suggest that the underestimation is caused by a problem in the attenuation correction method, which was verified by the improved codes.

Evaluation of areal precipitation estimates based on downscaled reanalysis and station data by hydrological modelling

Abstract. In data sparse mountainous regions it is difficult to derive areal precipitation estimates. In addition, their evaluation by cross validation can be misleading if the precipitation gauges are not in representative locations in the catchment. This study aims at the evaluation of precipitation estimates in data sparse mountainous catchments. In particular, it is first tested whether monthly precipitation fields from downscaled reanalysis data can be used for interpolating gauge observations. Secondly, precipitation estimates from this and other methods are evaluated by comparing simulated and observed discharge, which has the advantage that the data are evaluated at the catchment scale. This approach is extended here in order to differentiate between errors in the overall bias and the temporal dynamics, and by taking into account different sources of uncertainties. The study area includes six headwater catchments of the Karadarya Basin in Central Asia. Generally the precipitation estimate based on monthly precipitation fields from downscaled reanalysis data showed an acceptable performance, comparable to another interpolation method using monthly precipitation fields from multi-linear regression against topographical variables. Poor performance was observed in only one catchment, probably due to mountain ridges not resolved in the model orography of the regional climate model. Using two performance criteria for the evaluation by hydrological modelling allowed a more informed differentiation between the precipitation data and showed that the precipitation data sets mostly differed in their overall bias, while the performance with respect to the temporal dynamics was similar. Our precipitation estimates in these catchments are considerably higher than those from continental- or global-scale gridded data sets. The study demonstrates large uncertainties in areal precipitation estimates in these data sparse mountainous catchments. In such regions with only very few precipitation gauges but high spatial variability of precipitation, important information for evaluating precipitation estimates may be gained by hydrological modelling and a comparison to observed discharge.