Evaluation Of Policy Scenarios Research Articles

A flexible input-output price model for assessment of a nexus perspective to energy, water, food security policymaking

Input-Output models and their extensions offer multiple prospects to explore the energy, water, food inter-linkages – Energy, Water, Food nexus (EWF-n). This paper takes India as a case study to examine a nexus-informed approach to policy making for redressing the EWF security (EWF-s) challenges. First, a Leontief demand-driven EWF-extended Input-Output model is developed. The Leontief's production functions (representing endogenous, fixed technical coefficients) of the developed model are then further modified using flexible functions to capture EWF-related technological and policy interventions. The resulting changes in the model (to include divergent input substitution possibilities) allow evaluation of policy scenarios with nexus or non-nexus considerations towards EWF-s. These scenarios assess outcomes across diverse domains (physical, social, economic, environmental) in short, medium, and long-run over the period 2015-2047. The results show that not only does the EWF nexus-oriented scenario produce major co-benefits demonstrated in terms of the most significant long-term improvement in EWF outcomes but that it also achieves considerably superior economic, social, and environmental outcomes. Synergies and trade-offs across various policy scenarios are also discussed. The insights obtained from the application of this approach, especially cross-sectorial (EWF), cross-domain, and temporal can provide promising takeaways for policymakers to adopt a robust and sustainable strategy for tackling the EWF-s challenges.

Modeling Personal Exposure to Air Pollution with AB2C: Environmental Inequality

The AB2C model (Activity-Based modeling framework for Black Carbon exposure assessment) was developed to assess personal exposure to air pollution, more specifically black carbon. Currently the model calculates exposure in Flanders, an urbanized region in Western Europe. This model is characterized by the use of time-activity patterns, and air pollution concentrations with a high spatial and temporal resolution, including indoors and in the transport microenvironment. This model can be used for disaggregated exposure assessment or the evaluation of policy scenarios. In this paper, exposure of people from a lower socioeconomic class (SEC) is compared to the exposure of people from a higher SEC. In most North American studies, it is reported that poorer people are exposed to higher concentrations and suffer more from health effects associated with elevated exposure to air pollution. In Europe, fewer studies exist in this field, and results are not always conclusive. In this study, people from a lower SEC were found to be exposed to higher concentrations at home, but ‘richer’ people travel more, especially in traffic peak hours. This results in an average exposure that is higher for members of a lower SEC, but inhaled doses are similar in both groups. This analysis suggests that differences in health impact between the groups are almost completely explainable by increased susceptibility to air pollution health effects, and not by increased air pollutant intake.

Linking Hydrology, Ecosystem Function, and Livelihood Outcomes in African Papyrus Wetlands Using a Bayesian Network Model

Relationships between hydrology, ecosystem func- tion and livelihood outcomes in Nyando papyrus wetland in western Kenya were integrated in a Bayesian Network model with 34 nodes which was populated with results of ecohydrological and socio-economicresearchand stakeholder consultations. Scenarios for dry and wet seasons were evalu- ated. For a current iaveragei year in Nyando wetland the probabilities of iEcosystem functioni and iLivelihoods out- comesi being igoodi were 62 and 19 %, respectively. Under dry conditions, these values changed to 33 and 37 %; and under wet conditions to 85 and 6 %, respectively, indicating that wet conditions had a positive effect on the ecosystem but a negative effect on livelihoods. Ecosystem function and livelihood outcomes were most sensitive to flooding, conver- sion to agriculture, livestock grazing, and papyrus harvest. Flooded conditions limit cropping, livestock herding and veg- etation harvesting but have a positive effect on ecosystem function. The advantage of this interdisciplinary and partici- patory modeling approach is that it allows incorporation of formal and informal knowledge, allows evaluation of policy scenarios and trade-offs between ecosystem services, and recognizes uncertainty in system outcomes. Further work will incorporate the impact of management policies and institu- tions on resource use. This approach will be useful in decision support for wise use of wetlands.

Future-sketching and multi-attribute evaluation may affect your preference order of complex policy scenarios

A total of 158 citizens from Groningen and surrounding villages evaluated summary descriptions of four different policy scenarios (A-D) for metropolitan traffic in the next decades. Eighty subjects rank-ordered the scenarios following a multi-attribute evaluation method. The other 78 subjects provided an 'intuitive' rank-ordering. Of each group, half of the subjects did and the other half did not sketch their expected future consequences of each scenario. Multi-attribute evaluation of policy scenarios yielded a greater consensus among subjects and it led to another mean preference order than did intuitive evaluation. Of all preference orderings, 138 (87%) could be unfolded into one J(oint)-scale ranging from the 'alternative-friendly' scenario D to the 'car-friendly' scenario A. Individual subjects' ideal points and corresponding individual preference orders fell into seven different categories along this J-scale. Subgroups holding the seven preference orders significantly differed in traffic problem awareness, annual car-kilometrage and the percentage of multi-attribute evaluators. It is concluded that multi-attribute evaluation of complex preference objects may guide subjects towards greater consensus and towards another preference ranking than when policy scenarios are evaluated intuitively. This may be mediated by the set of value attributes used, whose structure of intercorrelations may reflect (or induce) a simple(r) preference foundation. The results are interpreted in terms of cognitive elaboration of choice alternatives which serves the construction of preferences about them. The importance of good 'scenario thinking' for complex policy making is emphasized. (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Impacts of regional transportation improvements on urban development in Japan

Urban agglomerations in Tokyo and Osaka in post-war period are largely attributable to the policies underlying the four National Development Plans implemented in that period. These policies, which were originally intended to achieve an effect on the opposite of agglomeration, relate primarily to the high-speed transit network known as the Tokaido shinkasen and the expressway segments linking the Kanto and Kansai regions. For the purpose of capturing the historical scenario of regional agglomeration, we have formulated a long-term macro-econometric model from 1950–85, with 5-year simulation cycles. This constitutes an employment distribution block, an input-output block, and an inter-prefectural activities block, incorporating all major macro-variables. In an earlier stage of this research the model was calibrated and the total tests upon all formulations were completed. Ascertaining that the accuracy of the model is well within permissible limits, an evaluation of policy scenarios due to the delay in the introduction of the shinkansen on the Tokaido line, has been conducted. Results indicate that Tokyo grows much less rapidly than in reality, Osaka maintains the same rate of growth, and the other areas show a substantial growth by 1985. In the present version, we improve on the model with respect to its qualitative performance by relaxing the exogeneity of national employment and GNP to allow for the evaluation of these policy variables. In completing these final tests on the model, we are able to confirm the validity of the model by demonstrating its accuracy to be in a satisfactory range. In a case study, the policy areas that have contributed to the present distribution of development have been explored in detail. Comparative policy transformations, necessary to achieve the opposite effects to agglomeration, are discussed.