Evaluation Of COPD Longitudinally To Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints Research Articles

Blood Gene Expression and Immune Cell Subtypes Associated with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations.

Rationale: Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AE-COPDs) are associated with a significant disease burden. Blood immune phenotyping may improve our understanding of a COPD endotype at increased risk of exacerbations. Objective: To determine the relationship between the transcriptome of circulating leukocytes and COPD exacerbations. Methods: Blood RNA sequencing data (n = 3,618) from the COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD) study were analyzed. Blood microarray data (n = 646) from the ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints) study were used for validation. We tested the association between blood gene expression and AE-COPDs. We imputed the abundance of leukocyte subtypes and tested their association with prospective AE-COPDs. Flow cytometry was performed on blood in SPIROMICS (Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcomes in COPD Study) (n = 127), and activation markers for T cells were tested for association with prospective AE-COPDs. Measurements and Main Results: Exacerbations were reported 4,030 and 2,368 times during follow-up in COPDGene (5.3 ± 1.7 yr) and ECLIPSE (3 yr), respectively. We identified 890, 675, and 3,217 genes associated with a history of AE-COPDs, persistent exacerbations (at least one exacerbation per year), and prospective exacerbation rate, respectively. In COPDGene, the number of prospective exacerbations in patients with COPD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage ⩾2) was negatively associated with circulating CD8+ T cells, CD4+ T cells, and resting natural killer cells. The negative association with naive CD4+ T cells was replicated in ECLIPSE. In the flow-cytometry study, an increase in CTLA4 on CD4+ T cells was positively associated with AE-COPDs. Conclusions: Individuals with COPD with lower circulating lymphocyte counts, particularly decreased CD4+ T cells, are more susceptible to AE-COPDs, including persistent exacerbations.

Circulating testosterone levels and health outcomes in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: results from ECLIPSE and ERICA

The relationship of circulating testosterone levels with health outcomes in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is unknown.AimTo determine whether serum testosterone levels predict hospitalised acute exacerbations of COPD...

C FTR variants are associated with chronic bronchitis in smokers.

Loss-of-function variants in both copies of the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene cause cystic fibrosis (CF); however, there is evidence that reduction in CFTR function due to the presence of one deleterious variant can have clinical consequences. Here, we hypothesise that CFTR variants in individuals with a history of smoking are associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and related phenotypes. Whole-genome sequencing was performed through the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute TOPMed (TransOmics in Precision Medicine) programme in 8597 subjects from the COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD) study, an observational study of current and former smokers. We extracted clinically annotated CFTR variants and performed single-variant and variant-set testing for COPD and related phenotypes. Replication was performed in 2118 subjects from the ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints) study. We identified 301 coding variants within the CFTR gene boundary: 147 of these have been reported in individuals with CF, including 36 CF-causing variants. We found that CF-causing variants were associated with chronic bronchitis in variant-set testing in COPDGene (one-sided p=0.0025; OR 1.53) and in meta-analysis of COPDGene and ECLIPSE (one-sided p=0.0060; OR 1.52). Single-variant testing revealed that the F508del variant was associated with chronic bronchitis in COPDGene (one-sided p=0.015; OR 1.47). In addition, we identified 32 subjects with two or more CFTR variants on separate alleles and these subjects were enriched for COPD cases (p=0.010). Cigarette smokers who carry one deleterious CFTR variant have higher rates of chronic bronchitis, while presence of two CFTR variants may be associated with COPD. These results indicate that genetically mediated reduction in CFTR function contributes to COPD related phenotypes, in particular chronic bronchitis.

Associations of Monocyte Count and Other Immune Cell Types with Interstitial Lung Abnormalities.

Rationale: Higher blood monocyte counts are associated with worse survival in adults with clinically diagnosed pulmonary fibrosis. Their association with the development and progression of interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA) in humans is unknown. Objectives: We evaluated the associations of blood monocyte count, and other immune cell types, with ILA, high-attenuation areas, and FVC in four independent cohorts. Methods: We included participants with measured monocyte counts and computed tomographic (CT) imaging enrolled in MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, n = 484), AGES-Reykjavik (Age/Gene Environment Susceptibility Study, n = 3,547), COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD, n = 2,719), and the ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points, n = 646). Measurements and Main Results: After adjustment for covariates, a 1-SD increment in blood monocyte count was associated with ILA in MESA (odds ratio [OR], 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-1.8), AGES-Reykjavik (OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.3), COPDGene (OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.2-1.4), and ECLIPSE (OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.0-1.4). A higher monocyte count was associated with ILA progression over 5 years in AGES-Reykjavik (OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.0-1.3). Compared with participants without ILA, there was a higher percentage of activated monocytes among those with ILA in MESA. Higher monocyte count was associated with greater high-attenuation areas in MESA and lower FVC in MESA and COPDGene. Associations of other immune cell types were less consistent. Conclusions: Higher blood monocyte counts were associated with the presence and progression of interstitial lung abnormalities and lower FVC.

Development of a Blood-based Transcriptional Risk Score for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Rationale: The ability of peripheral blood biomarkers to assess chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk and progression is unknown. Genetics and gene expression may capture important aspects of COPD-related biology that predict disease activity. Objectives: Develop a transcriptional risk score (TRS) for COPD and assess the contribution of the TRS and a polygenic risk score (PRS) for disease susceptibility and progression. Methods: We randomly split 2,569 COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD) participants with whole-blood RNA sequencing into training (n = 1,945) and testing (n = 624) samples and used 468 ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points) COPD cases with microarray data for replication. We developed a TRS using penalized regression (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) to model FEV1/FVC and studied the predictive value of TRS for COPD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease 2-4), prospective FEV1 change (ml/yr), and additional COPD-related traits. We adjusted for potential confounders, including age and smoking. We evaluated the predictive performance of the TRS in the context of a previously derived PRS and clinical factors. Measurements and Main Results: The TRS included 147 transcripts and was associated with COPD (odds ratio, 3.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.4-4.5; P < 0.001), FEV1 change (β, -17 ml/yr; 95% CI, -28 to -6.6; P = 0.002), and other COPD-related traits. In ECLIPSE cases, we replicated the association with FEV1 change (β, -8.2; 95% CI, -15 to -1; P = 0.025) and the majority of other COPD-related traits. Models including PRS, TRS, and clinical factors were more predictive of COPD (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 0.84) and annualized FEV1 change compared with models with one risk score or clinical factors alone. Conclusions: Blood transcriptomics can improve prediction of COPD and lung function decline when added to a PRS and clinical risk factors.

Predicting Re-Exacerbation Timing and Understanding Prolonged Exacerbations: An Analysis of Patients with COPD in the ECLIPSE Cohort.

PurposeUnderstanding risk factors for an acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is important for optimizing patient care. We re-analyzed data from the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study (NCT00292552) to identify factors predictive of re-exacerbations and associated with prolonged AECOPDs.MethodsPatients with COPD from ECLIPSE with moderate/severe AECOPDs were included. The end of the first exacerbation was the index date. Timing of re-exacerbation risk was assessed in patients with 180 days’ post-index-date follow-up data. Factors predictive of early (1–90 days) vs late (91–180 days) vs no re-exacerbation were identified using a multivariable partial-proportional-odds-predictive model. Explanatory logistic-regression modeling identified factors associated with prolonged AECOPDs.ResultsOf the 1,554 eligible patients from ECLIPSE, 1,420 had 180 days’ follow-up data: more patients experienced early (30.9%) than late (18.7%) re-exacerbations; 50.4% had no re-exacerbation within 180 days. Lower post-bronchodilator FEV1 (P=0.0019), a higher number of moderate/severe exacerbations on/before index date (P<0.0001), higher St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire total score (P=0.0036), and season of index exacerbation (autumn vs winter, P=0.00164) were identified as predictors of early (vs late/none) re-exacerbation risk within 180 days. Similarly, these were all predictors of any (vs none) re-exacerbation risk within 180 days. Median moderate/severe AECOPD duration was 12 days; 22.7% of patients experienced a prolonged AECOPD. The odds of experiencing a prolonged AECOPD were greater for severe vs moderate AECOPDs (adjusted odds ratio=1.917, P=0.002) and lower for spring vs winter AECOPDs (adjusted odds ratio=0.578, P=0.017).ConclusionPrior exacerbation history, reduced lung function, poorer respiratory-related quality-of-life (greater disease burden), and season may help identify patients who will re-exacerbate within 90 days of an AECOPD. Severe AECOPDs and winter AECOPDs are likely to be prolonged and may require close monitoring.

Should the number of acute exacerbations in the previous year be used to guide treatments in COPD?

BackgroundIn contemporary management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), the frequent exacerbator phenotype, based on a 12-month history of acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD), is a major determinant of therapeutic recommendations. However, there is considerable debate as to the stability of this phenotype over time.MethodsWe used fundamental principles in time-to-event analysis to demonstrate that variation in the frequent exacerbator phenotype has two major sources: variability in the underlying AECOPD rate and randomness in the occurrence of individual AECOPDs. We re-analysed data from two large cohorts, the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study and the SubPopulations and InteRmediate OutcoMes In COPD Study (SPIROMICS), using a Bayesian model that separated these sources of variability. We then evaluated the stability of the frequent exacerbator phenotype based on these results.ResultsIn both cohorts, the pattern of AECOPDs strongly supported the presence of an individual-specific underlying AECOPD rate which is stable over time (Bayes Factor less than 0.001). Despite this, the observed AECOPD rate can vary markedly year-to-year within individual patients. For those with an underlying rate of 0.8–3.1 events·year−1, the frequent exacerbator classification, based on the observed rate, changes more than 30% of the time over two consecutive years due to chance alone. This value increases to more than 45% for those with an underlying rate of 1.2–2.2 events·year−1.ConclusionsWhile the underlying AECOPD rate is a stable trait, the frequent exacerbator phenotype based on observed AECOPD patterns is unstable, so much so that its suitability for informing treatment decisions should be questioned. Whether evaluating AECOPD history over longer durations or using multivariate prediction models can result in more stable phenotyping needs to be evaluated.

DNA Methylation Is Predictive of Mortality in Current and Former Smokers.

Rationale: Smoking results in at least a decade lower life expectancy. Mortality among current smokers is two to three times as high as never smokers. DNA methylation is an epigenetic modification of the human genome that has been associated with both cigarette smoking and mortality.Objectives: We sought to identify DNA methylation marks in blood that are predictive of mortality in a subset of the COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD) study, representing 101 deaths among 667 current and former smokers.Methods: We assayed genome-wide DNA methylation in non-Hispanic white smokers with and without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using blood samples from the COPDGene enrollment visit. We tested whether DNA methylation was associated with mortality in models adjusted for COPD status, age, sex, current smoking status, and pack-years of cigarette smoking. Replication was performed in a subset of 231 individuals from the ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints) study.Measurements and Main Results: We identified seven CpG sites associated with mortality (false discovery rate < 20%) that replicated in the ECLIPSE cohort (P < 0.05). None of these marks were associated with longitudinal lung function decline in survivors, smoking history, or current smoking status. However, differential methylation of two replicated PIK3CD (phosphatidylinositol-4,5-bisphosphate 3-kinase catalytic subunit delta) sites were associated with lung function at enrollment (P < 0.05). We also observed associations between DNA methylation and gene expression for the PIK3CD sites.Conclusions: This study is the first to identify variable DNA methylation associated with all-cause mortality in smokers with and without COPD. Evaluating predictive epigenomic marks of smokers in peripheral blood may allow for targeted risk stratification and aid in delivery of future tailored therapeutic interventions.

The Acute COPD Exacerbation Prediction Tool (ACCEPT): a modelling study

Accurate prediction of exacerbation risk enables personalised care for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We developed and validated a generalisable model to predict individualised rate and severity of COPD exacerbations. In this risk modelling study, we pooled data from three COPD trials on patients with a history of exacerbations. We developed a mixed-effect model to predict exacerbations over 1 year. Severe exacerbations were those requiring inpatient care. Predictors were history of exacerbations, age, sex, body-mass index, smoking status, domiciliary oxygen therapy, lung function, symptom burden, and current medication use. Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points (ECLIPSE), a multicentre cohort study, was used for external validation. The development dataset included 2380 patients, 1373 (58%) of whom were men. Mean age was 64·7 years (SD 8·8). Mean exacerbation rate was 1·42 events per year and 0·29 events per year were severe. When validated against all patients with COPD in ECLIPSE (mean exacerbation rate was 1·20 events per year, 0·27 events per year were severe), the area-under-curve (AUC) was 0·81 (95% CI 0·79-0·83) for at least two exacerbations and 0·77 (95% CI 0·74-0·80) for at least one severe exacerbation. Predicted exacerbation and observed exacerbation rates were similar (1·31 events per year for all exacerbations and 0·25 events per year for severe exacerbations vs 1·20 events per year and 0·27 events per year). In ECLIPSE, in patients with previous exacerbation history (mean exacerbation rate was 1·82 events per year, 0·40 events per year were severe), AUC was 0·73 (95% CI 0·70-0·76) for two or more exacerbations and 0·74 (95% CI 0·70-0·78) for at least one severe exacerbation. Calibration was accurate for severe exacerbations (predicted 0·37 events per year vs observed 0·40 events per year) and all exacerbations (predicted 1·80 events per year vs observed 1·82 events per year). This model can be used as a decision tool to personalise COPD treatment and prevent exacerbations. Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Disease Progression Modeling in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Rationale: The decades-long progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) renders identifying different trajectories of disease progression challenging.Objectives: To identify subtypes of patients with COPD with distinct longitudinal progression patterns using a novel machine-learning tool called "Subtype and Stage Inference" (SuStaIn) and to evaluate the utility of SuStaIn for patient stratification in COPD.Methods: We applied SuStaIn to cross-sectional computed tomography imaging markers in 3,698 Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 1-4 patients and 3,479 controls from the COPDGene (COPD Genetic Epidemiology) study to identify subtypes of patients with COPD. We confirmed the identified subtypes and progression patterns using ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints) data. We assessed the utility of SuStaIn for patient stratification by comparing SuStaIn subtypes and stages at baseline with longitudinal follow-up data.Measurements and Main Results: We identified two trajectories of disease progression in COPD: a "Tissue→Airway" subtype (n = 2,354, 70.4%), in which small airway dysfunction and emphysema precede large airway wall abnormalities, and an "Airway→Tissue" subtype (n = 988, 29.6%), in which large airway wall abnormalities precede emphysema and small airway dysfunction. Subtypes were reproducible in ECLIPSE. Baseline stage in both subtypes correlated with future FEV1/FVC decline (r = -0.16 [P < 0.001] in the Tissue→Airway group; r = -0.14 [P = 0.011] in the Airway→Tissue group). SuStaIn placed 30% of smokers with normal lung function at elevated stages, suggesting imaging changes consistent with early COPD. Individuals with early changes were 2.5 times more likely to meet COPD diagnostic criteria at follow-up.Conclusions: We demonstrate two distinct patterns of disease progression in COPD using SuStaIn, likely representing different endotypes. One third of healthy smokers have detectable imaging changes, suggesting a new biomarker of "early COPD."

Overlap of Genetic Risk between Interstitial Lung Abnormalities and Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

Rationale: Interstitial lung abnormalities (ILAs) are associated with the highest genetic risk locus for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF); however, the extent to which there are unique associations among individuals with ILAs or additional overlap with IPF is not known.Objectives: To perform a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of ILAs.Methods: ILAs and a subpleural-predominant subtype were assessed on chest computed tomography (CT) scans in the AGES (Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility), COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease [COPD]), Framingham Heart, ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points), MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), and SPIROMICS (Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study) studies. We performed a GWAS of ILAs in each cohort and combined the results using a meta-analysis. We assessed for overlapping associations in independent GWASs of IPF.Measurements and Main Results: Genome-wide genotyping data were available for 1,699 individuals with ILAs and 10,274 control subjects. The MUC5B (mucin 5B) promoter variant rs35705950 was significantly associated with both ILAs (P = 2.6 × 10-27) and subpleural ILAs (P = 1.6 × 10-29). We discovered novel genome-wide associations near IPO11 (rs6886640, P = 3.8 × 10-8) and FCF1P3 (rs73199442, P = 4.8 × 10-8) with ILAs, and near HTRE1 (rs7744971, P = 4.2 × 10-8) with subpleural-predominant ILAs. These novel associations were not associated with IPF. Among 12 previously reported IPF GWAS loci, five (DPP9, DSP, FAM13A, IVD, and MUC5B) were significantly associated (P < 0.05/12) with ILAs.Conclusions: In a GWAS of ILAs in six studies, we confirmed the association with a MUC5B promoter variant and found strong evidence for an effect of previously described IPF loci; however, novel ILA associations were not associated with IPF. These findings highlight common genetically driven biologic pathways between ILAs and IPF, and also suggest distinct ones.

End-product of fibrinogen is elevated in emphysematous chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and is predictive of mortality in the ECLIPSE cohort

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by abnormal epithelial repair process that may result in intra-airway accumulation of fibrin. Given that plasma fibrinogen is the only FDA approved biomarker that predicts mortality and COPD exacerbations, we hypothesized that changes in the processing of fibrinogen may provide additional characterization of disease phenotype and COPD progression. A subpopulation of subjects with COPD, (n = 983) smoker (n = 205) and non-smoker controls (n = 98) were included from The Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points (ECLIPSE) cohort. Two biomarkers that specifically target the thrombin-mediated conversion of fibrinogen into fibrin (PRO-FIB), and plasmin-mediated degradation of cross-linked fibrin (X-FIB) were measured and compared with fibrinogen measurements. X-FIB had a predictive value for two-year mortality, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.48 per SD (n = 980; 95% Cl 1.18-1.84; p < 0.0001), and comparable to the fibrinogen hazard ratio of 1.59 per SD (n = 983; 95% Cl 1.29-1.96; p = 0.0003). X-FIB (p < 0.001), fibrinogen (p < 0.0001) and PRO-FIB (p < 0.05) were significantly elevated in symptomatic COPD (mMRC ≥ 2) as compared to asymptomatic COPD. X-FIB was the only biomarker that was associated with emphysema (p < 0.001), and only plasma fibrinogen (p < 0.05) was associated with exacerbations. There is a need for biomarkers to characterize the heterogeneity of COPD, to continuously improve clinical trial design and to identify disease progressors for efficient health care utilization. Each of three fibrinogen biomarkers studied provide information representing distinct aspects of COPD which may be used to characterize disease endotypes and to assess mortality risk in COPD.

DSP variants may be associated with longitudinal change in quantitative emphysema

BackgroundEmphysema, characterized by lung destruction, is a key component of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified multiple genetic factors associated with cross-sectional measures of quantitative emphysema, but the genetic determinants of longitudinal change in quantitative measures of emphysema remain largely unknown. Our study aims to identify genetic variants associated with longitudinal change in quantitative emphysema measured by computed tomography (CT) imaging.MethodsWe included current and ex-smokers from two longitudinal cohorts: COPDGene, a study of Non-Hispanic Whites (NHW) and African Americans (AA), and the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points (ECLIPSE). We calculated annual change in two quantitative measures of emphysema based on chest CT imaging: percent low attenuation area (≤ − 950HU) (%LAA-950) and adjusted lung density (ALD). We conducted GWAS, separately in 3030 NHW and 1158 AA from COPDGene and 1397 Whites from ECLIPSE. We further explored effects of 360 previously reported variants and a lung function based polygenic risk score on annual change in quantitative emphysema.ResultsIn the genome-wide association analysis, no variants achieved genome-wide significance (P < 5e-08). However, in the candidate region analysis, rs2076295 in the DSP gene, previously associated with COPD, lung function and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, was associated with change in %LAA-950 (β (SE) = 0.09 (0.02), P = 3.79e-05) and in ALD (β (SE) = − 0.06 (0.02), P = 2.88e-03). A lung function based polygenic risk score was associated with annual change in %LAA-950 (P = 4.03e-02) and with baseline measures of quantitative emphysema (P < 1e-03) and showed a trend toward association with annual change in ALD (P = 7.31e-02).ConclusionsDSP variants may be associated with longitudinal change in quantitative emphysema. Additional investigation of the DSP gene are likely to provide further insights into the disease progression in emphysema and COPD.Trial registrationClinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00608764, NCT00292552.

Increased Airway Wall Thickness in Interstitial Lung Abnormalities and Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

There is increasing evidence that aberrant processes occurring in the airways may precede the development of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF); however, there has been no prior confirmatory data derived from imaging studies. To assess quantitative measures of airway wall thickness (AWT) in populations characterized for interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA) and for IPF. Computed tomographic imaging of the chest and measures of AWT were available for 6,073, 615, 1,167, and 38 participants from COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD study), ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints study), and the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) and in patients with IPF from the Brigham and Women's Hospital Herlihy Registry, respectively. To evaluate these associations, we used multivariable linear regression to compare a standardized measure of AWT (the square root of AWT for airways with an internal perimeter of 10 mm [Pi10]) and characterizations of ILA and IPF by computed tomographic imaging of the chest. In COPDGene, ECLIPSE, and FHS, research participants with ILA had increased measures of Pi10 compared with those without ILA. Patients with IPF had mean measures of Pi10 that were even greater than those noted in research participants with ILA. After adjustment for important covariates (e.g., age, sex, race, body mass index, smoking behavior, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease severity when appropriate), research participants with ILA had increased measures of Pi10 compared with those without ILA (0.03 mm in COPDGene, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.02-0.03; P < 0.001; 0.02 mm in ECLIPSE, 95% CI, 0.005-0.04; P = 0.01; 0.07 mm in FHS, 95% CI, 0.01-0.1; P = 0.01). Compared with COPDGene participants without ILA older than 60 years of age, patients with IPF were also noted to have increased measures of Pi10 (2.0 mm, 95% CI, 2.0-2.1; P < 0.001). Among research participants with ILA, increases in Pi10 were correlated with reductions in lung volumes in some but not all populations. These results demonstrate that measurable increases in AWT are consistently noted in research participants with ILA and in patients with IPF. These findings suggest that abnormalities of the airways may play a role in, or be correlated with, early pathogenesis of pulmonary fibrosis.

Type IV collagen turnover is predictive of mortality in COPD: a comparison to fibrinogen in a prospective analysis of the ECLIPSE cohort

BackgroundIdentifying subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) at high risk of exacerbation and mortality is key to aid individual management of COPD. The only FDA approved blood-based drug development biomarker for patients at high risk of mortality, is plasma fibrinogen. In this study, we benchmarked two biomarkers of basement membrane remodeling, a characteristic of COPD, against plasma fibrinogen alone and as a combination. The biomarkers of basement membrane remodeling are two neoepitopes from of the alpha 3 chain of type IV collagen (COL4A3).Materials and methodsCOL4A3 degradation was assessed by the biomarkers C4Ma3 and tumstatin (TUM) in year 1 plasma samples in 984 COPD subjects, 95 non-smoking controls and 95 smoking controls from the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points (ECLIPSE) cohort. They were measured by competitive ELISA using monoclonal antibodies recognizing two specific MMP-generated cleavage site within COL4A3. The level of fibrinogen was previously assessed in year 1 plasma.ResultsIn COPD subjects, plasma C4Ma3 levels were significantly correlated with plasma fibrinogen levels (0.389 (P < 0.0001)). Cox proportional-hazards regression adjusted for relevant confounders showed that high levels of plasma C4Ma3, but not TUM, were related to a higher risk of mortality (hazard ratio 5.12 (95% CI 2.28–11.50), P < 0.0001). High levels of plasma fibrinogen were not associated with all-cause mortality in this subpopulation, contradictory to published results. Whereas plasma C4Ma3 multiplied by fibrinogen showed to be related to a higher risk of mortality (hazard ratio 5.74 (95% CI 2.65–12.41), P < 0.0001). Plasma C4Ma3 levels were related to the number of hospitalizations due to COPD exacerbations in the year before study start (P = 0.0375). Fibrinogen levels were related to hospitalized exacerbations prior to study start (P = 0.0058) and were also related to future exacerbations (P < 0.0001).ConclusionWe compared herein fibrinogen, C4Ma3 and TUM as biomarkers for COPD prognosis. Fibrinogen was related to future exacerbation, whereas C4Ma3 and the combination of C4Ma3 with fibrinogen were superior to fibrinogen alone in predicting mortality. This pilot study suggests that the assessment of plasma C4Ma3 could be important for identifying COPD patients with a poor prognosis.Trial registrationNCT00292552, GSK Study No. SCO104960.

Specific elastin degradation products are associated with poor outcome in the ECLIPSE COPD cohort

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by a slow heterogeneous progression. Therefore, improved biomarkers that can accurately identify patients with the highest likelihood of progression and therefore the ability to benefit from a given treatment, are needed. Elastin is an essential structural protein of the lungs. In this study, we investigated whether elastin degradation products generated by the enzymes proteinase 3, cathepsin G, neutrophil elastase, MMP7 or MMP9/12 were prognostic biomarkers for COPD-related outcomes. The elastin degradome was assessed in a subpopulation (n = 1307) of the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points (ECLIPSE) cohort with 3 years of clinical follow-up. Elastin degraded by proteinase 3 could distinguish between COPD participants and non-smoking controls (p = 0.0006). A total of 30 participants (3%) died over the 3 years of observation. After adjusting for confounders, plasma levels of elastin degraded by proteinase 3 and cathepsin G were independently associated with mortality outcome with a hazard ratio per 1 SD of 1.49 (95%CI 1.24–1.80, p < 0.0001) and 1.31 (95%CI 1.10–1.57, p = 0.0029), respectively. Assessing the elastin degradome demonstrated that specific elastin degradation fragments have potential utility as biomarkers identifying subtypes of COPD patients at risk of poor prognosis and supports further exploration in confirmatory studies.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of umeclidinium bromide/vilanterol 62.5/25 mcg versus tiotropium/olodaterol 5/5 mcg in symptomatic patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a Spanish National Healthcare System perspective

BackgroundA head-to-head study demonstrated the superiority of once-daily umeclidinium bromide/vilanterol (UMEC/VI) 62.5/25 mcg on trough forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) versus once-daily tiotropium/olodaterol (TIO/OLO) 5/5 mcg in symptomatic patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This analysis evaluated the cost effectiveness of UMEC/VI versus TIO/OLO from a Spanish National Healthcare System perspective, using data from this study and Spanish literature.MethodsThis analysis was conducted from the perspective of the Spanish National Healthcare System with a 3-year horizon as base case. A disease progression model using a linked risk equation approach was used to estimate disease progression and associated healthcare costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study was used to develop the statistical risk equations for clinical endpoints, and costs were calculated using a health state approach (by dyspnea severity). Utilities for QALY calculation were estimated using patient baseline characteristics within a regression fit to Spanish observational data. Treatment effect, expressed as change from baseline in FEV1 was obtained from the head-to-head study and used in the model (UMEC/VI minus TIO/OLO difference: + 52 mL [95% confidence interval: 28, 77]). Baseline patient characteristics were sourced from Spanish literature or the head-to-head study if unavailable. A scenario analysis using only the intent-to-treat (ITT) population from the head-to-head study, and sensitivity analyses (including probabilistic sensitivity analyses), were conducted. Direct healthcare costs (2017 Euro) were obtained from Spanish sources and costs and benefits were discounted at 3% per annum.ResultsUMEC/VI was associated with small improvements in QALYs (+ 0.029) over a 3-year time horizon, compared with TIO/OLO, alongside cost savings of €393/patient. The ITT scenario analysis and sensitivity analyses had similar results. All probabilistic simulations resulted in UMEC/VI being less costly and more effective than TIO/OLO.ConclusionUMEC/VI dominated TIO/OLO (more effective and less expensive). These results may aid payers and decision-makers in Spain when making judgements on which long-acting muscarinic antagonist/long-acting β2-agonist (LAMA/LABA) treatments can be considered cost effective in Spain.

Common and Rare Variants Genetic Association Analysis of Cigarettes per Day Among Ever-Smokers in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Cases and Controls.

Cigarette smoking is a major environmental risk factor for many diseases, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). There are shared genetic influences on cigarette smoking and COPD. Genetic risk factors for cigarette smoking in cohorts enriched for COPD are largely unknown. We performed genome-wide association analyses for average cigarettes per day (CPD) across the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) non-Hispanic white (NHW) (n = 6659) and African American (AA) (n = 3260), GenKOLS (the Genetics of Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) (n = 1671), and ECLIPSE (the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints) (n = 1942) cohorts. In addition, we performed exome array association analyses across the COPDGene NHW and AA cohorts. We considered analyses across the entire cohort and stratified by COPD case-control status. We identified genome-wide significant associations for CPD on chromosome 15q25 across all cohorts (lowest p = 1.78 × 10-15), except in the COPDGene AA cohort alone. Previously reported associations on chromosome 19 had suggestive and directionally consistent associations (RAB4, p = 1.95 × 10-6; CYP2A7, p = 7.50 × 10-5; CYP2B6, p = 4.04 × 10-4). When we stratified by COPD case-control status, single nucleotide polymorphisms on chromosome 15q25 were nominally associated with both NHW COPD cases (β = 0.11, p = 5.58 × 10-4) and controls (β = 0.12, p = 3.86 × 10-5) For the gene-based exome array association analysis of rare variants, there were no exome-wide significant associations. For these previously replicated associations, the most significant results were among COPDGene NHW subjects for CYP2A7 (p = 5.2 × 10-4). In a large genome-wide association study of both common variants and a gene-based association of rare coding variants in ever-smokers, we found genome-wide significant associations on chromosome 15q25 with CPD for common variants, but not for rare coding variants. These results were directionally consistent among COPD cases and controls. We examined both common and rare coding variants associated with CPD in a large population of heavy smokers with and without COPD of NHW and AA descent. We replicated genome-wide significant associations on chromosome 15q25 with CPD for common variants among NHW subjects, but not for rare variants. We demonstrated for the first time that common variants on chromosome 15q25 associated with CPD are similar among COPD cases and controls. Previously reported associations on chromosome 19 showed suggestive and directionally consistent associations among common variants (RAB4, CYP2A7, and CYP2B6) and for rare variants (CYP2A7) among COPDGene NHW subjects. Although the genetic effect sizes for these single nucleotide polymorphisms on chromosome 15q25 are modest, we show that this creates a substantial smoking burden over the lifetime of a smoker.

Blood eosinophil count thresholds and exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Eosinophilic airway inflammation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with exacerbations and responsivity to steroids, suggesting potential shared mechanisms with eosinophilic asthma. However, there is no consistent blood eosinophil count that has been used to define the increased exacerbation risk. We sought to investigate blood eosinophil counts associated with exacerbation risk in patients with COPD. Blood eosinophil counts and exacerbation risk were analyzed in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD by using 2 independent studies of former and current smokers with longitudinal data. The Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) study was analyzed for discovery (n=1,553), and the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study was analyzed for validation (n=1,895). Asubset of the ECLIPSE study subjects were used to assess the stability of blood eosinophil counts over time. COPD exacerbation risk increased with higher eosinophil counts. An eosinophil count threshold of 300cells/μL or greater showed adjusted incidence rate ratios for exacerbations of 1.32 in the COPDGene study (95% CI, 1.10-1.63). The cutoff of 300cells/μL or greater was validated for prospective risk of exacerbation in the ECLIPSE study, with adjusted incidence rate ratios of 1.22 (95% CI, 1.06-1.41) using 3-year follow-up data. Stratified analysis confirmed that the increased exacerbation risk associated with an eosinophil count of 300cells/μL or greater was driven by subjects with a history of frequent exacerbations in both the COPDGene and ECLIPSE studies. Patients with moderate-to-severe COPD and blood eosinophil counts of 300cells/μL or greater had an increased risk exacerbations in the COPDGene study, which was prospectively validated in the ECLIPSE study.

Systemic Markers of Adaptive and Innate Immunity Are Associated with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Severity and Spirometric Disease Progression.

The progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with marked alterations in circulating immune cell populations, but no studies have characterized alterations in these cell types across the full spectrum of lung function impairment in current and former smokers. In 6,299 subjects from the COPDGene and ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints) studies, we related Coulter blood counts and proportions to cross-sectional forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), adjusting for current smoking status. We also related cell count measures to 3-year change in FEV1 in ECLIPSE subjects. In a subset of subjects with blood gene expression data, we used cell type deconvolution methods to infer the proportions of immune cell subpopulations, and we related these to COPD clinical status. We observed that FEV1 levels are positively correlated with lymphocytes and negatively correlated with myeloid populations, such as neutrophils and monocytes. In multivariate models, absolute cell counts and proportions were associated with cross-sectional FEV1, and lymphocytes, monocytes, and eosinophil counts were predictive of 3-year change in lung function. Using cell type deconvolution to study immune cell subpopulations, we observed that subjects with COPD had a lower proportion of CD4+ resting memory cells and naive B cells compared with smokers without COPD. Alterations in circulating immune cells in COPD support a mixed pattern of lymphocyte suppression and an enhanced myeloid cell immune response. Cell counts and proportions contribute independent information to models predicting lung function, suggesting a critical role for immune response in long-term COPD outcomes. Cell type deconvolution is a promising method for immunophenotyping in large cohorts.