Outbreaks In Europe Research Articles

Viral hepatitis knowledge and vaccination awareness among men who have sex with men (MSM) in 43 countries of the WHO European Region: results from the European MSM Internet Survey, EMIS-2017.

BackgroundRecent hepatitis A virus outbreaks in Europe affecting men who have sex with men (MSM) and ongoing hepatitis B virus transmission among MSM underscore the ongoing need for viral hepatitis prevention in this population.AimTo describe viral hepatitis knowledge and associated factors among MSM in the WHO European Region to inform targeted prevention.MethodsIn the European MSM Internet Survey (EMIS-2017), basic knowledge was defined as correctly identifying at least 4 of 5 statements about viral hepatitis and vaccination. We described basic knowledge by country. In a multilevel logistic regression model, we estimated adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for having basic knowledge and explanatory variables: sociodemographic characteristics, history of hepatitis C and/or HIV diagnosis, sexual orientation disclosure at last sexually transmitted infections (STI) test and outness.ResultsOf 113,884 participants across 43 WHO European Region countries, 68% demonstrated basic knowledge, ranging from 50% in Israel to 80% in the Netherlands. Basic knowledge was significantly associated with older age (≥ 40 years vs < 25 years, aOR: 2.9, 95% CI: 2.7-3.0), a history of hepatitis C and/or HIV diagnosis (aOR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.7-1.9) and sexual orientation disclosure at last STI test (aOR: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.2-1.3), among other factors.ConclusionsWe found a knowledge disparity regarding viral hepatitis and hepatitis vaccination awareness among MSM across Europe, highlighting a need to address these gaps. A non-judgemental, accepting climate that allows individuals attending medical services to safely disclose their sexual orientation is fundamental to enable healthcare professionals to target information and preventative measures more effectively.

Sheeppox virus genome sequences from the European outbreaks in Spain, Bulgaria, and Greece in 2022–2024

In 2022-2024, three outbreaks of sheeppox (SPP) were reported in the European Union. These occurred in Spain, Bulgaria, and Greece and had serious economic consequences due to animal losses and trade restrictions. Five sheeppox virus (SPPV) whole-genome sequences (WGSs) were determined from samples collected during these outbreaks and analyzed in the context of all other published WGSs. Sheeppox virus strains can be divided in two, or possibly three, main groups. The isolates from the recent outbreaks belong to clade A2, which includes strains historically circulating in the Middle East and Northern Africa. Sequence divergence was low among the isolates that caused the recent European outbreaks. These results highlight the need for more regular and dense surveillance in under-sampled areas and the use of WGS to increase the chance of pinpointing the origin of an introduction, identifying potential introduction routes, and providing insights into SPPV evolution.

Analysis of the mpox outbreak in Europe in 2022: vaccination rollout in the most affected countries

Abstract Background The mpox virus spreads through contact with infected material and causes flu-like symptoms and skin lesions. Common in Central and West Africa, a global rise in mpox cases in 2022 was observed, affecting mainly men who have sex with men. Methods The study analysed vaccination policies in the most affected WHO-EURO countries during the mpox outbreak, including the Netherlands, France, UK, Spain, Germany, Belgium, Portugal, and Switzerland. Epidemiological data from May to October 2022 (first wave) were compared. Additionally, the role of EU health institutions in assisting member states in controlling virus spread across the region was examined. Results By the end of May 2022, three countries (The Netherlands, France, and UK) initiated post-exposure vaccination shortly after the first case identification. Portugal, one of the most affected countries, implemented pre-exposure prophylaxis for high-risk groups by September, followed by Switzerland in November. Vaccination access for non-exposed priority groups varied, with France not requiring a medical prescription. EU cooperation in health was pivotal during the outbreak, with vaccines distributed through the EU4Health program budget via HERA to ensure preparedness. However, detailed information remains limited. Conclusions Countries’ responses to the mpox virus outbreak varied significantly, with discrepancies not always aligning with epidemiological data. These differences could stem from various factors, such as behavioural patterns, prior immunisation rates, and neighbouring countries’ policies. However, the unequal access to vaccines across the region underscores existing health disparities, particularly affecting stigmatised populations. Data on immunisation records were notably scarce in most countries, hindering thorough analysis of policy implementation and effectiveness. Additionally, further exploration is warranted into the role of LGBT associations and evidence of stigma surrounding the outbreak. Key messages • The mpox 2022 outbreak in Europe provides an important picture of cross-border health policies and public health responses for future emergences in a European cooperative environment. • Most national authorities provided limited information during the mpox 2022 outbreak; data on immunisation records and vaccine access is pivotal to assess countries’ health policies.

Reaction of Wood Ants to a Large-Scale European Spruce Bark Beetle Outbreak in Temperate Forests

In the Białowieża Forest, Norway spruce is the preferred host tree species for wood ants, both in coniferous and mixed stands; thus, spruce mortality as a consequence of a continuous spruce bark beetle outbreak in the Białowieża Forest since 2012 could have severe consequences for wood ant colonies, as well as their vitality and distribution. The main aim of this study was to assess whether the bark beetle outbreak had any effects on wood ant nest density and abundance and whether we could find any factors affecting the dead spruce distribution around ant nests. A re-inventory of active and abandoned wood ant nests in our study area was conducted from April to July 2022, using the same procedure as the previous inventory performed in 2016. The wood ant nest density was 0.11 per ha and remained practically the same relative to that determined in 2016. Our results indicate that, despite the importance of spruce for wood ants, in situations when only part of the spruce trees die, natural forest disturbances such as bark beetle outbreaks can actually have positive effects because more light can reach the forest floor, thereby promoting the establishment of new nests.

Monitoring and preventing foodborne outbreaks: are we missing wastewater as a key data source?

In 2022, the number of foodborne outbreaks in Europe increased by 43.9%, highlighting the need to improve surveillance systems and design outbreak predictive tools. This review aims to assess the scientific literature describing wastewater surveillance to monitor foodborne pathogens in association with clinical data. In the selected studies, the relationship between peaks of pathogen concentration in wastewater and reported clinical cases is described. Moreover, details on analytical methods to detect and quantify pathogens as well as wastewater sampling procedures are discussed. Few papers show a statistically significant correlation between high concentrations of foodborne pathogens in wastewater and the occurrence of clinical cases. However, monitoring pathogen concentration in wastewater looks like a promising and cost-effective strategy to improve foodborne outbreak surveillance. Such a strategy can be articulated in three steps, where the first one is testing wastewater with an untargeted method, like shotgun metagenomic, to detect microorganisms belonging to different domains. The second consists of testing wastewater with a targeted method, such as quantitative polymerase chain reaction, to quantify those specific pathogens that in the metagenomic dataset display an increasing trend or exceed baseline concentration thresholds. The third involves the integrated wastewater and clinical data analysis and modeling to find meaningful epidemiological correlations and make predictions.

Geographic, ecological, and temporal patterns of seabird mortality during the 2022 HPAI H5N1 outbreak on the island of Newfoundland

Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 caused mass mortality of wildlife across the North Atlantic in 2022. Following European outbreaks, the first North American case was detected on the island of Newfoundland, Canada in November 2021, before spreading throughout North America. During the following summer, Newfoundland and surrounding islands (NFLD) experienced one of the most significant mortalities in Canadian provinces, with seabirds being the most affected taxa. From surveys and citizen reports, we estimate that 13517 mortalities that can be attributed to HPAI occurred in NFLD from April to September 2022. Most estimated mortalities were among Northern Gannets (Morus bassanus, Linnaeus, 1758) (6596), Common Murres (Uria aalge, Pontoppidan, 1763) (5992), Atlantic Puffins (Fratercula arctica, Linnaeus, 1758) (282), and Black-legged Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla, Linnaeus, 1758) (217). Mortality reports moved from west to east along the southern then eastern NFLD coast and peaked in July and August. We formulated exploratory hypotheses regarding traits that could contribute to infection and mortality. Species differences in mortality most strongly associated with inter-nest distance, breeding phenology, and at-sea overlap with allospecifics from other colonies. Unprecedented seabird mortality and ongoing transmission within the circulating avian influenza viruses highlight the need for continued monitoring and development of conservation strategies.

Updates to the wild bird abundance and movement models for the early warning system for avian influenza in the EU

Abstract Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses pose a significant threat to both poultry and wild bird populations. Migratory wild birds play a key role in the intercontinental spread of avian influenza (AI), introducing the virus into poultry populations. In response to frequent AI outbreaks in Europe, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), at the request of the European Commission (EC), produces quarterly and annual epidemiological reports to monitor and analyse AI trends. A key component of this surveillance includes the integration of outbreak data from Member States and contributions from non‐governmental ornithological organisations like the European Bird Census Council (EBCC) and the European Union for Bird Ringing (EURING) together in a predictive spatio‐temporal risk assessment model. Previous data integration and modelling efforts led to the development of an early warning system for predicting HPAI outbreaks accessible through a publicly available online user interface: the Bird Flu Radar. This report presents an improvement of the system by expanding the species coverage and refining the existing base models behind the epidemiological model. Specifically, this report details the exploration to incorporate 12 additional wild bird species into the models, and the changes made to the base models predicting the distribution and movements of wild birds. We demonstrate the improvements respecting the existing base models while at the same time enhancing the effectiveness in predicting HPAI outbreaks and possibly mitigating negative effects in Europe by providing more accurate predictions to different stakeholders.

Parameterisation of a bluetongue virus mathematical model using a systematic literature review

Bluetongue virus (BT) is a vector-borne virus that causes a disease, called bluetongue, which results in significant economic loss and morbidity in sheep, cattle, goats and wild ungulates across all continents of the world except Antarctica. Despite the geographical breadth of its impact, most BT epidemiological models are informed by parameters derived from the 2006–2009 BTV-8 European outbreak. The aim of this study was to develop a highly adaptable model for BT which could be used elsewhere in the world, as well as to identify the parameters which most influence outbreak dynamics, so that policy makers can be properly informed with the most current information to aid in disease planning.To provide a framework for future outbreak modelling and an updated parameterisation that reflects natural variation in infections, a newly developed and parameterised two-host, two-vector species ordinary differential equation model was formulated and analysed. The model was designed to be adaptable to be implemented in any region of the world and able to model both epidemic and endemic scenarios. It was parameterised using a systematic literature review of host-to-vector and vector-to-host transmission rates, host latent periods, host infectious periods, and vaccine protection factors. The model was demonstrated using the updated parameters, with South Africa as a setting based on the Western Cape’s known cattle and sheep populations, local environmental parameters, and Culicoides spp. presence data.The sensitivity analysis identified that the duration of the infectious period for sheep and cows had the greatest impact on the outbreak length and number of animals infected at the peak of the outbreak. Transmission rates from cows and sheep to C. imicola midges greatly influenced the day on which the peak of the outbreak occurred, along with the duration of incubation period, and infectious period for cows. Finally, the protection factor of the vaccine had the greatest influence on the total number of animals infected. This knowledge could aid in the development of control measures.Due to gradual climate and anthropological change resulting in alterations in vector habitat suitability, BT outbreaks are likely to continue to increase in range and frequency. Therefore, this research provides an updated BT modelling framework for future outbreaks around the world to explore transmission, outbreak dynamics and control measures.

Socially responsible banking: Weathering the Covid-19 storm

This paper investigates the impact of socially responsible banking activities on banks’ risk profiles, using data from the period of turmoil caused by the Coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak in Europe. Our findings show that socially responsible banking activities served as a risk-hedging strategy at the peak of the pandemic. Furthermore, we reveal the role of banks’ environmental and social engagement in reducing the exposure to country-level Covid-19 cases and public perception using a Google Trends sentiment analysis. Finally, in explaining the ESG-bank risk relationship, we identify a mediating role of the Covid-19 “panic” as a viable economic channel.

Complete Circularized Genome Resources for Xylella fastidiosa subsp. sandyi Strains CO33 and CFBP8478

Xylella fastidiosa ( Xf) is a vascular phytopathogenic bacterium native to the Americas, known for causing severe diseases and significant economic losses in important crops. In Europe, Xf is considered a quarantine pathogen. Since its first detection in 2013 in Italy, mandatory surveys to search for Xf across Europe have revealed the presence of three Xf subspecies ( fastidiosa, multiplex, and pauca) in different outbreaks occurring in France, Spain, and Portugal. Xf subspecies sandyi and morus have not been associated with epidemic outbreaks in Europe; however, subspecies sandyi has been detected in intercepted plants imported from Costa Rica and Honduras. By combining data from the Oxford Nanopore Technologies and Illumina sequencing platforms, we obtained complete genomes for Xf strains CO33 and CFBP8478. Both strains belong to the subspecies sandyi and were isolated from coffee plants intercepted in Europe that were imported from Costa Rica. These two genome resources increase the scarce number of Xf genomes available belonging to the subspecies sandyi, which is crucial for comparative genomic analysis and population studies of this important plant-pathogenic bacterium. [Formula: see text] Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license .

Analysis of the Unique Historical Isolate of African Swine Fever Virus Isolate Spencer from Outbreaks in 1951.

African swine fever (ASF) is a deadly hemorrhagic disease of domestic and wild swine that was first described in the early 20th century after the introduction of European pigs to Kenya. The etiological agent, the African swine fever virus (ASFV), is a large DNA virus within the Asfarviridae family that is broadly categorized epidemiologically into genotypes based on the nucleotide sequence of B646L, the gene encoding the major capsid protein p72. ASF outbreaks in Africa have been linked historically to 25 genotypes by p72 nucleotide analysis and, recently, to 6 genotypes by amino acid comparison, whereas global outbreaks of ASF outside of Africa have only been linked to 2 genotypes: genotype I, which led to an outbreak in Europe during the 1960s that later spread to South America, and genotype II, responsible for the current pandemic that began in Georgia in 2007 and has since spread to Europe, Asia, and Hispaniola. Here, we present an analysis of the genome of ASFV Spencer, an isolate that was collected in 1951 near Johannesburg, South Africa. While nucleotide analysis of Spencer indicates the p72 coding sequence is unique, differentiating from the closest reference by five nucleotides, the predicted amino acid sequence indicates that it is 100% homologous to contemporary genotype 1. Full genome analysis reveals it is more similar to Mkuzi1979 and encodes genes that share similarity with either genotype 1 or genotype 2 outbreak strains.

Spatiotemporal analysis of equine infectious anemia and prediction of risk areas in Europe

Equine Infectious Anemia (EIA) is a vector-borne persistent viral infection in equine animals. The EIA is characterized by recurrent fever, thrombocytopenia, depression, anemia, rapid weight loss, and lower body edema. Control of EIA is achieved through the elimination or isolation of infected animals, resulting in significant economic losses. In recent years, many countries in Europe have experienced outbreaks of EIA, which could potentially develop into a new wave of epidemic and pose a significant threat to the healthy development of the equine industry. This study utilized spatiotemporal analysis techniques and ecological niche modeling to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of historical EIA outbreaks and predict risk areas for EIA occurrence in Europe. Spatiotemporal analysis results indicate that from 2005 to 2023, the EIA outbreaks in Europe exhibit five significant spatiotemporal clusters, with hotspots concentrated in southeastern France and northwestern Italy. Ecological niche modeling reveals that western, central, and southern Europe are high-risk areas for EIA outbreaks. Annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and horse density are important variables that influence the occurrence of EIA. The results of this study can provide decision-makers with valuable insights, helping with EIA monitoring and resource allocation.

Red knots in Europe: a dead end host species or a new niche for highly pathogenic avian influenza?

The 2020/2021 epidemic in Europe of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) of subtype H5 surpassed all previously recorded European outbreaks in size, genotype constellations and reassortment frequency and continued into 2022 and 2023. The causative 2.3.4.4b viral lineage proved to be highly proficient with respect to reassortment with cocirculating low pathogenic avian influenza viruses and seems to establish an endemic status in northern Europe. A specific HPAIV reassortant of the subtype H5N3 was detected almost exclusively in red knots (Calidris canutus islandica) in December 2020. It caused systemic and rapidly fatal disease leading to a singular and self-limiting mass mortality affecting about 3500 birds in the German Wadden Sea, roughly 1 % of the entire flyway population of islandica red knots. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that the H5N3 reassortant very likely had formed in red knots and remained confined to this species. While mechanisms of virus circulation in potential reservoir species, dynamics of spill-over and reassortment events and the roles of environmental virus sources remain to be identified, the year-round infection pressure poses severe threats to endangered avian species and prompts adaptation of habitat and species conservation practices.

The Potential of Plant-Produced Virus-like Particle Vaccines for African Horse Sickness and Other Equine Orbiviruses.

African horse sickness is a devastating viral disease of equids. It is transmitted by biting midges of the genus Culicoides with mortalities reaching over 90% in naïve horses. It is endemic to sub-Saharan Africa and is seasonally endemic in many parts of southern Africa. However, outbreaks in Europe and Asia have occurred that caused significant economic issues. There are attenuated vaccines available for control of the virus but concerns regarding the safety and efficacy means that alternatives are sought. One promising alternative is the use of virus-like particles in vaccine preparations, which have the potential to be safer and more efficacious as vaccines against African horse sickness. These particles are best made in a complex, eukaryotic system, but due to technical challenges, this may cause significant economic strain on the developing countries most affected by the disease. Therefore, this review also summarises the success so far, and potential, of recombinant protein expression in plants to reduce the economic strain of production.

New host plant records for Ripersiella hibisci (Hemiptera: Rhizoecidae) following recent outbreaks in Europe

AbstractThis short note reviews reports from outbreaks of Ripersiella hibisci (Hemiptera: Rhizoecidae) in Europe between 2021 and 2023. This species was recorded from 21 new host plants across 11 families, including three families not previously known to include hosts of R. hibisci (Cactaceae, Cornaceae, Solanaceae). The updated host list allows better understanding of the species’ ecology and provides useful information for policy makers for when they define phytosanitary regulations for pest management.

Mpox in children and adolescents and contact follow-up in school settings in greater Paris, France, May 2022 to July 2023.

BackgroundDuring the 2022 mpox outbreak in Europe, primarily affecting men who have sex with men, a limited number of cases among children and adolescents were identified. Paediatric cases from outbreaks in endemic countries have been associated with a higher likelihood of severe illness. Detailed clinical case descriptions and interventions in school settings before 2022 are limited.AimTo describe clinical characteristics of mpox cases among children (< 15 years) and adolescents (15-17 years) in the greater Paris area in France, and infection control measures in schools.MethodsWe describe all notified laboratory-confirmed and non-laboratory-confirmed cases among children and adolescents identified from May 2022 to July 2023, including demographic and clinical characterisation and infection control measures in school settings, i.e. contact tracing, contact vaccination, secondary attack rate and post-exposure vaccination uptake.ResultsNineteen cases were notified (13 children, 6 adolescents). Four adolescent cases reported sexual contact before symptom onset. Ten child cases were secondary cases of adult patients; three cases were cryptic, with vesicles on hands, arms and/or legs and one case additionally presented with genitoanal lesions. Five cases attended school during their infectious period, with 160 at-risk contacts identified, and one secondary case. Five at-risk contacts were vaccinated following exposure.ConclusionCases among children and adolescents are infrequent but require a careful approach to identify the source of infection and ensure infection control measures. We advocate a 'contact warning' strategy vs 'contact tracing' in order to prevent alarm and stigma. Low post-exposure vaccination rates are expected.

High Diversity of Curtobacterium flaccumfaciens in Poinsettia and Detection of Three Pathogenicity Plasmids for Identification of C. flaccumfaciens pv. poinsettiae

Outbreaks in Europe have raised concerns about poinsettia bacterial canker caused by Curtobacterium flaccumfaciens pv. poinsettiae, described in the United States. Using a semiselective medium containing aztreonam and fosfomycin and selection during isolation based on matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) spectra, 424 Curtobacterium strains were isolated from Belgian poinsettias of African and European origin. Different populations coexisted: 130 strains were identified as C. flaccumfaciens with scores ≥2.0 and 294 with scores &lt;2.0 or as another Curtobacterium. MALDI-TOF MS libraries constructed using similar medium and extraction procedure and a pathogenicity test on poinsettia were used to screen collections from poinsettia and wheat, a possible alternative host, for C. flaccumfaciens pv. poinsettiae. The concatenated recA- gyrB partial sequences showed that 114 poinsettia or wheat strains belonged to different Curtobacterium species. Eighty-eight nonpathogenic strains and four U.S. strains from litter were intermingled with bean pathogenic C. flaccumfaciens pv. flaccumfaciens strains in the three genetic groups of C. flaccumfaciens but lacked their pathogenicity markers. Four new European recA- gyrB sequatypes of C. flaccumfaciens pv. poinsettiae, obtained from symptomatic and asymptomatic poinsettias, were distinguished from three American sequatypes. Six sequatypes were pathogenic in tests, belonged to genetic groups related to two different genomospecies, and possessed a plasmid. Sequencing of six plasmids revealed three related plasmids containing proteases and a polygalacturonase found only in strains pathogenic in pathogenicity tests and specifically identified by polygalacturonase-based PCR and loop-mediated isothermal amplification assays. Similarities between plant and litter Curtobacterium and the role of plasmids in pathogenicity and punctual transmission of pathogenicity among heterogeneous C. flaccumfaciens are suggested.

A 'ring in ring' skin infection in a returning traveller.

A 40-year-old woman developed an itchy, expanding cutaneous lesion with two erythematous rings after visiting Senegal. Fungal culture revealed Microsporum audouinii, a fungus causing tinea corporis or capitis commonly in Africa but increasingly reported in outbreaks in Europe.

Complex European invasion history of Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky): new insights in its population genomic differentiation using genotype-by-sequencing.

Anthropogenic activities like trade facilitate increasing rates of biological invasions. Asian long-horned beetle (ALB), which is naturally distributed in eastern Asia (China, Korean peninsula), was introduced via wood packing materials (WPM) used in trade to North America (1996) and Europe (2001). We used 7810 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) derived by a genotype-by-sequencing (GBS) approach to decipher the introduction patterns into Europe. This is applied for the first time on European ALB outbreaks from Germany, Switzerland, and Italy, both from still active and already eradicated infestations. The genome-wide SNPs detected signs of small and highly structured populations within Europe, showing clear founder effects. The very high population differentiation is presumably derived from multiple independent introductions to Europe, which are spatially restricted in mating. By admixture and phylogenetic analyses, some cases of secondary dispersal were observed. Furthermore, some populations suggest admixture, which might have been originated by either multiple introductions from different sources into the new sites or recurrent introductions from an admixed source population. Our results confirmed a complex invasion history of the ALB into Europe and the usability of GBS obtained SNPs in invasion science even without source populations.

Spatiotemporal genotype replacement of H5N8 avian influenza viruses contributed to H5N1 emergence in 2021/2022 panzootic.

Since 2020, clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 and H5N1 viruses have swept through continents, posing serious threats to the world. Through comprehensive analyses of epidemiological, genetic, and bird migration data, we found that the dominant genotype replacement of the H5N8 viruses in 2020 contributed to the H5N1 outbreak in the 2021/2022 wave. The 2020 outbreak of the H5N8 G1 genotype instead of the G0 genotype produced reassortment opportunities and led to the emergence of a new H5N1 virus with G1's HA and MP genes. Despite extensive reassortments in the 2021/2022 wave, the H5N1 virus retained the HA and MP genes, causing a significant outbreak in Europe and North America. Furtherly, through the wild bird migration flyways investigation, we found that the temporal-spatial coincidence between the outbreak of the H5N8 G1 virus and the bird autumn migration may have expanded the H5 viral spread, which may be one of the main drivers of the emergence of the 2020-2022 H5 panzootic.IMPORTANCESince 2020, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 subtype variants of clade 2.3.4.4b have spread across continents, posing unprecedented threats globally. However, the factors promoting the genesis and spread of H5 HPAI viruses remain unclear. Here, we found that the spatiotemporal genotype replacement of H5N8 HPAI viruses contributed to the emergence of the H5N1 variant that caused the 2021/2022 panzootic, and the viral evolution in poultry of Egypt and surrounding area and autumn bird migration from the Russia-Kazakhstan region to Europe are important drivers of the emergence of the 2020-2022 H5 panzootic. These findings provide important targets for early warning and could help control the current and future HPAI epidemics.