European Energy Research Articles

The European Energy Crisis and the Consequences for the Global Natural Gas Market

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to severe disruptions in the European gas market with significant repercussions on a global scale. The conflict caused a surge in energy prices, a major reshuffling of global natural gas flows, and a shift in the policy-makers’ agendas toward energy supply security. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the developments in the global gas market in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine, focusing in particular on the European gas market and on global LNG trade flows. We first review the characteristics of the gas market in terms of both pricing benchmarks and contractual terms. Next, we analyze the changes to LNG and natural gas production, consumption, and trade flows throughout the European energy crisis. Finally, we review the main policy response to the energy crisis and present some considerations on the gas market outlook. JEL Classification: L95, P28, Q35

Trend Analysis of Cross-Border Electricity Trading in Pan-European Network

The long-term global target of facilitating energy security and optimizing resource utilization while supporting the transition to sustainable energy systems has led the pathway towards regional cooperation in the context of energy infrastructures and trading. Recent trends highlight the development of transnational energy grids, pipelines, and renewable energy projects, facilitating efficient distribution of electricity, gas, and other energy forms. These advancements offer benefits such as increased reliability of energy supply, cost savings through shared resources, and strengthened relationships between countries. However, challenges persist, including regulatory differences, geopolitical tensions, alignment of market rules as well as substantial investment requirements in infrastructure and technology. Addressing these challenges necessitates harmonized policies, robust legal frameworks, and cooperative international governance, which are crucial for effective cross-border energy trading. The aim of the work is to present the current landscape as well as analyze the latest trends and developments in the dynamic field of electricity interconnectors, providing insights into its trajectory and implications for the European internal energy market.

Social and spatial determinants of energy ageism: Calibrating social policy towards older people under the conditions of energy transition in Polish society

The article aims to identify the problems and challenges faced by senior citizens in the context of energy transition and also to develop a framework of social policy that would respond to senior citizens' concerns and is necessary for the effective implementation of the goals of the European Union's (EU) climate and energy policy. The authors focus on the analysis of the challenges of energy transition faced by older people who live in Poland in various types of buildings and use different sources of home heating. The article shows how various types of buildings constructed using different technologies and in different historical periods and located in various social and geographical spaces divide people in terms of class and also create challenges for older people related to home heating. The type of building and its place in the urban space may be a determinant of the energy poverty of its inhabitants, and the area where specific types of buildings are clustered together may affect the air quality in this part of a city. The authors suggest taking specific local and national actions as part of social policy towards older people during energy transition. The material was collected in the winter of 2024 using focus group interviews for eight groups of senior citizens differing in place of residence, type of building inhabited and source of home heating.

Transnational networks of energy communities as counterpower in the European Union renewable energy transition framework

Abstract This article explores the communicative process by which transnational networks of energy communities (ECs) in Europe build counterpower vis-a-vis the European Union (EU) institutional framework, with the purpose of effectively contributing to the shaping and management of the EU policy and regulatory framework for renewable energy transition. Such a process consists in the identification of obstacles to effective participation, the facilitation of access to information on EU regulation and policy frameworks, and the production of technical knowledge that reframes how renewable energy transition is understood as a field of political intervention. The impact of EC networks, and other networks of related community-led initiatives, on the EU energy policy framework is still relatively small when compared to centralized, large-scale providers of energy. It is constrained by how differently EU regulatory and policy packages address ‘techno-energetic systems’ in energy transition, as well as disparities in the transposition of EU legislation by Member States. Still, EC networks are building counterpower by facilitating bottom-up information and skill sharing, focusing on facilitating access to information on EU regulation and policy frameworks, as well as producing knowledge that frames the obstacles to effective participation of ECs in policymaking. It expands the understanding of renewable energy transition as a field of policy intervention beyond merely instrumental logic, centred on regulation and policy support to technological innovation, by mainstreaming a substantive logic based on a comprehensive socioecological framing that embeds energy transition in a multidimensional understanding of territorial development and governance.

Sustainable Logistics: Synergizing Passive Design and PV–Battery Systems for Carbon Footprint Reduction

As more companies strive for net-zero emissions, mitigating indirect greenhouse gas emissions embedded in value chains—especially in logistics activities—has become a critical priority. In the European logistics sector, sustainability and energy efficiency are receiving growing attention, given the sector’s intersectional role in both transportation and construction. This transition toward low-carbon logistics design not only reduces carbon emissions but also yields financial benefits, including operational cost savings and new market opportunities. This study examines the impact of passive design strategies and low-carbon technologies in a Swedish logistics center, assessed using the low-carbon design criteria from the BREEAM International standard, version 6. The findings show that passive energy-efficient measures, such as the installation of 47 skylights for natural daylighting, reduced light power density in accordance with AHSHARE 90.1-2019 and the integration of free night flushing, contribute to a 23% reduction in total energy consumption. In addition, the integration of 600 PV panels and 480 batteries with a capacity of 268 ampere-hours and 13.5 kWh storage, operating at 50 volts, delivers a further 56% reduction in carbon emissions. By optimizing the interaction between passive design and active low-carbon technologies, this research presents a comprehensive feasibility analysis that promotes sustainable logistics practices while ensuring a future-proof, low-carbon operational model.

ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНИЙ РИНОК УКРАЇНИ : СТВОРЕННЯ УМОВ ДЛЯ ЕФЕКТИВНОГО ЕНЕРГОЗАБЕЗПЕЧЕННЯ

The article analyzes the theoretical foundations of the formation of energy security on the energy market of Ukraine in the context of European integration processes, and states that energy security is a component of the state's national security. The main advantages of long-term contracts for all energy market participants are indicated. Features of the functioning of consumer companies in the competitive market are highlighted. The main risks for large consumers when working on the day-ahead market are presented. Factors of the expediency of functioning on the balancing segment are given. Current trends in the development of world energy and their impact on energy security are analyzed. The necessity of diversification of energy supply sources for Ukraine is substantiated. The influence of the European integration processes on the reform of the energy sector of Ukraine is studied. The current state of the energy market was analyzed, and the analysis of factors affecting development trends and ensuring protection in the energy market was carried out. The influence of the European integration processes on the reform of the energy sector of Ukraine is studied. The conjuncture of the energy market of Ukraine is determined, in which it is necessary to analyze not only the peculiarities of the domestic sphere, but also the influence of international relations, international trade and the world market. The PEST analysis of the energy industry of Ukraine is presented, which allowed to identify the level of influence and the neighborhood of the group of influencing factors on the formation of the strategic potential of the energy market of Ukraine. Directions for increasing the level of energy security through modernization of the energy infrastructure, development of renewable energy sources, and integration into the European energy space are proposed. It is noted that the creation of conditions for the effective use of internal resources and the development of appropriate technologies are of strategic importance. The country's government is working on integration into the European energy community, which requires compliance with European standards and the implementation of effective management models of the energy market of Ukraine. According to the results of the strategic potential of the energy industry of Ukraine, economic factors exert the greatest influence - 1.147, which just emphasizes the important role of the energy industry in the country's economy. In second place in terms of influence are political factors - 0.847. The analysis of the market just showed the rather important role of the political component in the functioning of the energy market of Ukraine, namely in the aspect of its joining the European energy market and the transformation of Ukraine into the European Union with the rights of an equal state. In third place are technological factors - 0.553, which confirm Ukraine's determination to decarbonize the energy market. And the fourth place is occupied by socio-cultural factors - 0.537, which are only marginally inferior to technological factors. This indicates a strong influence of consumer preferences when choosing interaction models in the market.

Assessing the Sustainability Reporting Transparency and Engagement of European Energy Companies

Energy companies are facing increasing pressure from institutional and industry stakeholders to prioritize their responsibility to the environment and society, including providing accurate, reliable, and comprehensive reports on their sustainability practices. Three metrics were developed in this study: the average sustainability reporting score and two sustainability performance reporting indices based on two different performance measurement methodologies. These were designed to assess the effect of mandatory non-financial disclosure on sustainability reporting and the level of transparency and engagement of energy companies. The study also examined the relationship between the level of sustainability reporting and sustainability performance in the period of 2016–2019 by correlating these metrics. The analysis sheds light on the effectiveness of non-financial disclosure regulations in promoting sustainability practices in the energy industry. The results revealed no difference in metric scores prior to, or even following, the adoption of Directive 2014/95/EU. Energy companies performed better in terms of sustainability when more indicators were reported. Their primary focus was on the economic aspect of sustainability, particularly corruption. They gave less importance to the environmental aspect, mainly reporting on emissions. The social aspect received the least attention, although indicators for employee education and training were mentioned most frequently. The analysis showed that the metrics are statistically significantly correlated and complement each other, highlighting the need to consider a variety of metrics when assessing sustainability performance in the energy industry.

Dependence of green energy markets on big data and other fourth industrial revolution technologies

This paper analyzes the dependence and connectedness among fourth-industrial revolution technology markets (including big data and artificial intelligence, blockchain, and financial technology) and global and regional (US, Europe, and Asia) green energy markets. In particular, we consider the dynamic dependence among these markets in terms of both returns and volatility across different market conditions and investment horizons using the cross-spectral coherence and Quantile-VAR connectedness approach. Three main results emerge from our analysis. First, the return dependence is relatively stronger than volatility dependence and is stronger across most time scales among the technology markets and the European and Asian regional green energy indexes. Second, the return and volatility connectedness is stronger during extreme than normal market conditions. Unless under bullish market times, volatility connectedness appears smaller than return connectedness, implying that market volatility risks spread less forcefully among these markets than return risks under normal and bearish market periods. Third, geopolitical risks, business environment, economic policy, fixed-income, and oil and gold markets’ uncertainties are significant predictors of the degree of return and volatility connectedness. Overall, our findings offer crucial insights for short- and long-term investors interested in portfolios with modern technology and green assets. They also emphasize the roles of market and macroeconomic factors in shock propagation and their implications for low-carbon transition.

Decarbonization Roadmaps and Community Transition Pathways: empowering Energy Citizenship in the EU

Abstract The European energy transition is currently emphasizing advancements in regulations and technologies, with a focus also on social justice. Citizens are perceived as key players in the energy systems, as their direct involvement can contribute to the wide spread of improved behaviours and clean energy production. This paper explores Community Transition Pathways (CTPs), an innovative instrument to support energy citizenship effectively. CTPs guide citizens through structured paths, addressing diverse communities. Grounded in energy citizenship theories, the concept integrates insights from literature and policy developments. CTPs have been created within the H2020 project GRETA and verified in six case studies across Italy, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, and Portugal. This paper aims to present the instrument as a project result, embedding its creation in the current debate about energy citizenship and transition pathways and presenting the results on three GRETA case studies. The research’s originality lies in its empirical approach, emphasizing citizens’ active roles in transition processes. Successful development and testing of CTPs demonstrate their value in fostering collaboration in clean energy production and facilitating participatory transition paths. However, ongoing refinement and replicability are essential for sustained success. By positioning citizens as active participants and reshaping public decision-making, CTPs advance a more inclusive and impactful approach to energy transition.

Investigating the long-term benefits of EU Electricity Highways: The case of the Green Aegean Interconnector

This paper investigates the potential long-term benefits that could be arisen by the construction and operation of the envisioned “Green Aegean Interconnector”. This will be a pioneering 9-GW direct interconnection line connecting Greece with Germany to facilitate the transfer of massive amounts of RES generation from South-East to Central-North Europe. The ultimate goal of this analysis is to estimate the total electricity supply cost to be undertaken by the end-consumers in Greece with and without the said interconnector along with the cost/benefit of the Greek national economy associated with the foreseen cross-border electricity exchange. Detailed simulations of the Greek electricity market using a specialized electricity market simulation software on the basis of the main provisions of the revised Greek National Energy and Climate Plan are performed under realistic market evolution scenarios for a future 30-year study horizon (2026-2055). Simulation results and the associated cost-benefit analysis indicate that such a project would enable the operation of additional RES projects in Greece. This would, in turn, decrease the overall Greek end-consumers’ electricity cost and create a significant surplus for the Greek economy through the increased exporting activity, whereas at EU-level it would assist towards further achieving the European energy market integration.

The degree of freedom of the designer of the industrial design

The article is devoted to the study of the essence of the concept of the degree of freedom of the designer of an industrial design in the context of such a criterion of the protectionability of an industrial design as an individual character. The Law of Ukraine «On Protection of Rights to Industrial Designs» has been analyzed for the purpose of defining the concept of «designer’s degree of freedom». It has been established that the domestic law does not contain a broad explanation of the mentioned concept. It has been found that some additional information regarding the understanding of the concept of «designer’s degree of freedom» is contained in such a secondary legal act as the recently approved Rules for drawing up and submitting an application for an industrial design and conducting an examination of an application for an industrial design and international registration of an industrial design. It has been analysed the Association Agreement between Ukraine, on the one hand, and the European Union, the European Atomic Energy Community and their member states, on the other hand, as well as Directive 98/71/EC of the European Parliament and the Council of October 13, 1998 on legal protection industrial designs and Council Regulation (EC) No. 6/2002 of December 12, 2001 on Community industrial designs, the provisions of which were implemented in 2020 into the Law of Ukraine «On the Protection of Industrial Design Rights». It has been established that the above-mentioned international legal acts do not provide a deep interpretation of the concept of the designer’s degree of freedom. Separate foreign and international court cases have been considered, in which the designer’s degree of freedom in specific practical cases has been analyzed in detail. It has been clarified and illustrated with real examples the specific importance of the degree of freedom of the designer for the individual character of an industrial design. On the basis of domestic legislation, international legal acts, foreign and international judicial practice, own conclusions have been drawn regarding the understanding of the concept of the degree of freedom of the author of an industrial design. It has been established under which circumstances the degree of freedom of the designer cannot be limited. It has been concluded that the requirements for the differences of the designed product from others, which make an impression on the informed user, depend on the lower or higher degree of freedom of the designer.

Hydrogen Infrastructure in the Future CO2‐Neutral European Energy System—How Does the Demand for Hydrogen Affect the Need for Infrastructure?

The fast rollout of hydrogen generation, transport, and storage infrastructure has become a top priority of the European Union and its member states. Planning hydrogen infrastructure requires a thorough understanding of the future role of hydrogen in the energy system. At the same time, there is still huge uncertainty about the future demand for hydrogen and its overall role. An energy systems analysis is conducted with high temporal and spatial as well as technological resolution under alternative demand scenarios. An energy system model is used to optimize the entire European energy system with hourly time resolution and high spatial consideration of renewable energy potentials. The hydrogen demand in the five scenarios ranges from about 700 TWh for mainly industrial uses to 2800 TWh in all sectors in the EU27 + UK by 2050. The results show that an integrated European hydrogen system is a robust element of the cost‐optimal system design in all scenarios. This encompasses flexible electrolyzers at the most favorable wind and solar locations, long‐distance hydrogen transport network, large‐scale seasonal underground storage, and electricity generation for peak demand periods. Conclusions about the individual components are provided and high‐resolution data on hydrogen demand are available for future research.

Maturity assessment of grid-scale flexibility and energy storage services towards a decarbonized Europe

Background The study evaluates the maturity of grid-scale flexibility services, essential for Europe's transition to a decarbonized economy. Conducted under the Horizon-Europe SINNOGENES project, it focuses on energy storage technologies, regulatory frameworks, and stakeholder perspectives. Methods The methodology comprises three phases. First, significant grid-scale energy storage and flexibility technologies, including Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) systems, were reviewed. Second, the regulatory framework for flexibility services at the EU transmission systems level was assessed, analyzing key EU directives and national regulations from Spain, Portugal, Germany, Cyprus, and Switzerland. Third, stakeholder perspectives were gathered through a survey of forty-four stakeholders in the European energy sector and bilateral interviews with companies and organizations in the energy sector. Results Technological advancements in grid-scale flexibility services have been identified, along with persistent regulatory challenges. The survey and interviews revealed a varied perception among stakeholders regarding the maturity and implementation of these services. A high demand for flexibility was noted, with 77% of stakeholders expressing a need for or active use of flexibility services. Electrochemical energy storage and demand response were highlighted as the most relevant technologies. However, high implementation costs, perceived insufficient benefits, and regulatory uncertainties were major barriers to widespread adoption. Conclusions The study concludes that despite notable technological progress and some regulatory advancements, several barriers still impede the full maturity and integration of grid-scale flexibility services in Europe. Addressing these regulatory and market challenges is crucial for achieving a fully functional and integrated flexibility service framework across the European grid. Harmonized regulations, financial incentives, and clear long-term pricing signals are essential to support the market.

Demonstrating clean energy transition scenarios in sector-coupled and renewable-based energy communities.

Energy communities facilitate several advantages, including energy autonomy, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, poverty mitigation, and regional economic development. They also empower citizens with decision-making and co-ownership prospects in community renewable projects. Integrating renewable energy sources and sector coupling is a crucial strategy for flexible energy systems. However, demonstrating clean energy transition scenarios in these communities presents challenges, including technology integration, flexibility activation, load reduction, grid resilience, and business case development. Based on the system of systems approach, this paper introduces a 4-step funnel approach and a 4-step reverse funnel approach to systematically specify and detail demonstration scenarios for energy community projects. The funnel approach involves four steps. First, it selects demonstration scenarios promoting energy-efficient state-of-the-art renewable technologies and storage systems, flexibility through demand side management techniques, reduced grid dependence, and economic viability. Second, it lists all existing and planned project technologies, analysing energy flows. Third, it plans actions at different levels to implement the demonstration scenarios. Fourth, it validates the strategies using key performance indicators (KPI) to quantify the effectiveness of the planned measures. Furthermore, the reverse funnel approach delves deeper into the demonstration scenarios. The four steps involve identifying stakeholder perspectives, describing scenario scopes, listing conditions for realisation, and outlining business models, including value chains and economic assumptions. This approach provides a detailed analysis of the demonstration scenarios, considering actors, objectives, boundary conditions, and business assumptions. The methodologies are exemplified in three diverse European energy communities extending across residential, commercial, tertiary, and industrial establishments, allowing power-to-x and sector coupling opportunities. The paper also suggested thirteen KPIs for validating renewable-focused energy community projects. Finally, the paper recommends increased collaboration between energy communities, knowledge sharing, stakeholder engagement, transparent data collection and analysis, continuous feedback, and method improvement to mitigate policy, technology, business, and market uncertainties.

Framing Collective Moral Responsibility for Climate Change: A Longitudinal Frame Analysis of Energy Company Climate Reporting

AbstractResponding to climate change and avoiding irreversible climate tipping points requires radical and drastic action by 2030. This urgency raises serious questions for energy companies, one of the world’s largest emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs), in terms of how they frame, and reframe, their response to climate change. Despite the majority of energy companies releasing ambitious statements declaring net zero carbon ambitions, this ‘talk’ has not been matched with sufficient urgency or substantive climate action. To unpack the disconnect between talk and action, this paper draws on the literature on framing, organisational hypocrisy, and collective moral responsibility. We conduct a longitudinal qualitative content analysis of the framing of climate change used by the ten largest European investor-owned energy companies and the actions they have taken to shift their business practices. Our findings reveal three main categories of energy companies: (i) deflecting, (ii) stagnating, and (iii) evolving. We show key differences in the relationship between framing and action over time for each category, revealing how deflecting companies have larger and persistent gaps between green talk and concrete action and how stagnating companies are delaying action despite increased green talk, while evolving companies exhibit a closer link between talk and action that tends to be realised over time. Our analysis reveals how competing approaches to framing collective moral responsibility help understand the trajectories of talk and action across the different categories of energy companies. This research makes several contributions to the literature on organisational hypocrisy and collective moral responsibility in the context of climate change. Our analysis highlights the complex relationship between collective moral responsibility, organisational hypocrisy and climate action, revealing how different collective framings—diffuse, teleological, or agential—can both enable and offset substantive climate action. The study also enriches our understanding of the performative nature of collective moral responsibility by examining its temporal dimensions and showing how an agential, backward-looking focus is associated with more meaningful climate action.

Mitigating economic losses and prospects for the development of the energy sector in the Republic of Kosovo

The purpose of the study was to analyse the current economic problems in the energy sector of Kosovo and to develop effective strategies to overcome them, in particular ways to minimise losses and increase the stability of the energy system, as well as to study opportunities for ensuring the country’s long-term development and energy security. The main focus was on the economic impact of implementing international energy standards, particularly European ones, within Kosovo’s national policy and development strategy. The analysis emphasised the financial benefits and challenges associated with aligning the country’s energy sector with EU directives, especially those related to renewable energy sources and energy efficiency. Key areas of the study included the economic potential of enhancing energy security, promoting renewable energy development, and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Additionally, the study evaluated the economic implications of these reforms on Kosovo’s energy market and overall economic growth trajectory. The study also included an economic analysis that assessed possible economic losses associated with the transition to renewable energy sources. Risks were considered, including job losses in traditional energy sectors such as coal and the significant financial costs required to upgrade infrastructure. However, the study found that the long-term benefits of a green energy transition, including increased energy security, reduced dependence on energy imports and improved environmental conditions, outweigh the short-term economic costs. The results showed that although the economic transition is accompanied by significant financial costs, the long-term benefits, such as increased energy security and reduced emissions, are substantial. The study highlights the importance of further reforms and investments to ensure the sustainable development of Kosovo’s energy sector, as well as the country’s integration into the European energy environment

Safe haven between European ESG and energy sector under Russian-Ukraine war: Role of sustainable investments for portfolio diversification

The shortage of oil and gas supply to Europe during the Russia-Ukraine conflict has triggered a price hike in the European energy sector. To mitigate the impact of higher energy prices on consumers, the EU introduced a price ceiling mechanism to curb gas prices from exceeding market norms. This interplay between supply shortages and price controls further heightened volatility in energy market prices. Consequently, our study aims to explore the efficacy of ESG indices as a safe haven against the highly volatile European oil and gas sectors to reduce portfolio losses during conflict. Using advanced analytical techniques such as cross-quantilogram to predict directional predictability, we find that bullish ESG markets are a safe haven against the bearish oil and gas markets in short, medium, and long-term investment horizons. Further, to identify the net receiver/transmitter of spillover between ESG indices and oil and gas sectors, our quantile time-frequency connectedness analysis shows ESG is a net receiver of spillover before the conflict and during wartime. Additionally, we explored the indicator of uncertainty that influences quantile spillover between ESG indices and European oil and gas sectors. We find that uncertainty's role in quantile spillover is significant and asymmetric, and it becomes more volatile during wartime. This feature tends to be amplified during short and long-term spillovers. Finally, the portfolio rebalance strategy suggests that a safe haven portfolio based on a one-month investment horizon yields positive returns during wartime. Hence, this study suggests investors include ESG indices as safe haven assets at times of crisis and for policymakers to understand the role of uncertainties in reducing price volatility and risk contagion among ESG and energy markets.

TEMOA-europe: An open-source and open-data energy system optimization model for the analysis of the European energy mix

Energy system modeling tools allow to perform comprehensive analyses for the optimal integration of supply and demand technologies in different scenarios. Open tools, in particular, increase the reliability of such tools and their policy relevance. This work aims to present TEMOA-Europe, an open-data and open-software model instance for OECD Europe. Such model is developed on a time scale up to 2050 and calibrated against acknowledged energy statistics up to 2020. This work is the first to present a net-zero emissions by 2050 trajectory envisaging the absence of Russian energy imports starting from 2030. Despite the stringent constraints, TEMOA-Europe is able to provide results for a decarbonization scenario with growing end-use demands – among which some are reduced for the effect of the elasticity to gas price – considering a larger use of renewable source already starting from the near future and reduced energy intensity. Renewable energy represents more than 60 % of total energy supply by 2050 in the computed pathway. The results are also compared to the projections of the International Energy Agency for the Announced Pledges Scenario (since results for the Net-Zero Emissions Scenario are not publicly available), showing large agreement except for the outcomes concerning wind electricity generation.

A probabilistic framework for stranding risk assessment and EPBD IV scenario analysis for the Italian building stock

The building sector is a major contributor to global GHG emissions, constituting an essential player in national and global decarbonization strategies. In this framework, governments have started requiring higher building energy performances to reduce emissions, with the new European Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) representing a further step in this direction. Such requirements could be enforced at a large scale with specific penalties for the property owners, such as the stranding of non-compliant assets, making them not rentable or marketable until requirements are met. A few countries have already applied these measures but with a limited extent and effective implications compared to the decarbonization goals. Thus, while the consequent impact is potentially considerable given that a significant share of existing buildings would be stranded, a high uncertainty characterizes its assessment, calling for a probabilistic approach. However, no probabilistic methods have been formulated for stranding risk. This paper critically reviews the state-of-the-art approaches for stranding assessment of buildings. A probabilistic framework based on methodologies derived from natcat risk assessment is also presented. A scenario-based analysis is carried out on the Italian building stock and compared to the impact of natural hazards. Results reveal that stranding risk can be relatively significant in terms of expected monetary losses. The categorization of this risk as sustainability-induced “creative destruction” is also discussed. The findings provide insights into which policies would be required to implement decarbonization pathways for the building stock while underlining how energy retrofit design can adapt to mitigate stranding risk.

Opportunities of hydrogen and ammonia trade between Europe and MENA

This paper examines the potential role of hydrogen and ammonia in the European energy transition to reach net-zero greenhouse gas targets. We analyse trade of green hydrogen and ammonia between Europe and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), since the latter possesses a high potential for solar power, making it a possible low-cost supplier of these two clean energy carriers. The economic attractiveness of such trade depends on the additional infrastructure and transportation costs required for the roll-out of these clean energy carriers. Using a global integrated assessment model, TIAM-ECN, we evaluate the trade-off between costs and benefits of establishing import-export links between Europe and MENA for hydrogen and ammonia. Our study assumes the availability of hydrogen pipelines from North Africa to Europe, and of liquefied hydrogen and ammonia shipping from the Middle East to Europe. We find that MENA could realize cost savings of over 6% by 2050 through hydrogen and ammonia trade. Furthermore, despite the availability of gaseous green hydrogen from North Africa (via pipelines), for Europe the import of liquefied green hydrogen and ammonia from MENA (through shipping) can also be economically viable. Although this trade could generate cost savings of 40 billion dollars per year by 2050, we conclude that for Europe import diversity, rather than cost savings, could become the main factor driving hydrogen and ammonia imports.