European Corporate Bond Research Articles

The impact of the ECB's PEPP project on the COVID-19-Induced crisis in the corporate bond market

We examine the financial crisis in the European corporate bond market following the COVID-19 pandemic and assess the effectiveness of the ECB's QE program, PEPP, in mitigating it. Using credit (Z-spread) and liquidity (scaled bid-ask spread) spreads, we find that the crisis elevated Z-spreads of corporate bonds and mostly raised the bid-ask spread of ineligible bonds – indicating that the pre-pandemic QE shored up the liquidity of eligible bonds. Moreover, ineligible bonds issued by firms in COVID-19 hard-hit industries experienced the steepest increase in the credit and liquidity spreads. The results show that PEPP decreased the credit spreads of ineligible bonds via the portfolio rebalancing channel, especially in pandemic-sensitive industries; however, it did not improve corporate bonds’ liquidity conditions.

Trade Protocols, Transparency, and Liquidity – Theory and Evidence from the European Corporate Bond Market

Trade Protocols, Transparency, and Liquidity – Theory and Evidence from the European Corporate Bond Market

Common factors in the performance of European corporate bonds – evidence before and after the financial crisis

Common factors in the performance of European corporate bonds – evidence before and after the financial crisis

Examining QE’s bang for the Buck: Does Quantitative easing reduce credit and liquidity risks and stimulate real economic activity?

This paper investigates the ECB’s Corporate Sector Purchase Programme’s (CSPP) impact on European corporate bonds’ credit and liquidity risks and real economic activity. The results show that the CSPP’s announcement (“stock effect”) lowered the credit spread of eligible corporate bonds, measured by the G-spread, by ten basis points (bps) or 9.8%. The liquidity of eligible bonds also improved as their scaled bid-ask spread decreased by 2.6 bps or 4.6%. Moreover, for every 1 billion euros of ECB corporate bond monthly purchases (“flow effect”), the scaled bid-ask spread of eligible bonds declined by 0.6 bp from June 2016 to December 2018. As for economic activity, QE’s stock effect raised corporate debt – mainly for German firms – and the stock and flow effects stimulated dividend spending, especially for German and French firms. These results indicate that QE initially improved corporate bond operations and encouraged borrowing. Moreover, the CSPP continued to boost the liquidity of corporate bonds and dividend expenditure throughout its implementation, but not investment. Therefore, QE had limited success in stimulating economic activity.

Home bias and the need to build a bond market track record

ABSTRACT This paper examines home bias in the primary distribution process of the European corporate bond market. Our approach allows us to study the initial holdings of corporate bonds at a uniquely liquid point in their life cycle. We find that home bias is prevalent across our sample, but is highest amongst bonds issued by firms from both the highest-debt market size economies and lower-debt market sizes economies, who both benefit from relatively large domestic bond markets compared to their funding needs. We argue that international diversification can occur in this market through a life cycle effect where issuers outgrow investor home bias and build a reputation amongst international investors through regular bond market issuance. Our results provide some initial support for this life cycle effect, with repeat issues, issues off an EMTN programme, and highly subscribed issues being associated with lower home bias.

The impact of lending relationships on the choice and structure of bond underwriting syndicates

This paper examines the multiple-bookrunning phenomenon by focusing on the role of firm–bank relationships. Using a sample of European corporate bonds from 2003 to 2013, we show that the existence and strength of prior firm–bank relationships affects the multiple-bookrunning choice. Firms with strong (more concentrated) lending relationships are less likely to issue a multiple-bookrunner bond. Nevertheless, during the GFC crisis, the opposite effect is found. Issuer–bank relationships have a larger impact on issuers' selection of bookrunners during the crisis than before the crisis. However, reputable bookrunners refrain from becoming joint bookrunners if they are matching with less reputable counterparts.

Non-pricing drivers of underwriters’ market shares in corporate bond markets

Banks' role as underwriters has gained relevance, fostering competition for market share in this traditional investment banking activity. This paper explores the effects of competitive pricing and non-pricing factors on banks’ market share as underwriters. Using a panel of active-underwriters in the European corporate bond markets during a highly competitive period (2007–2013), we find that pricing factors are of second-order importance in explaining changes in market shares. Providing joint lending and underwriting services, hiring star-analysts, and being the leader in placing bonds within an industry positively affect market share. These results explain how banks have developed their underwriting businesses.

Do bank bailouts have an impact on the underwriting business?

We explore the effects of bank bailouts on competition in the underwriting business. We exploit a sample of underwriters active in the European corporate bond markets from 2006 to 2013 and find that reputable underwriters suffer market share losses (of 12.43 %) after being bailed out. However, the market share of non-reputable underwriters is found to increase after a bail out. An exploration of the firm–bank underwriting matching reveals that the probability of being chosen as underwriter in a given deal decreases for reputable bailed-out banks, while it increases for non-reputable bailed-out banks. These results provide evidence of the effects of bailouts on underwriting competition. The economic impact depends on the ex-ante reputational capital of the bailed-out bank.

What Factors Influence European Corporate Bond Spread?

This paper examines the main determinants of corporate euro-bond spread. We analyse a large sample of corporate euro-country bonds over the period May 2005 -January 2012, considering three sub-periods: May 2005- July 2007 (pre-crisis period), August 2007-April 2010 (worldwide financial crisis) and May 2010-January 2012 (European sovereign debt crisis).
 
 We show that both liquidity risk and risk related to the country of the issuing firms affect corporate bond spread. We also find that the market yield of corporate bonds issued in the main European countries is, other things being equal, strongly influenced by the risk of the corresponding sovereign bonds and Credit Default Swap (CDS). Finally, we compare the yields of bonds issued by banks with those of bonds issued by firms from other sectors and find that the spread, other things being equal, is significantly higher for banks. These findings may have operating implications for market activity, regulators and policy makers.

Quantify the quantitative easing: Impact on bonds and corporate debt issuance

This paper studies the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) announcement on prices, liquidity, and debt issuance in the European corporate bond market using a data set on bond transactions from Euroclear. I find that the quantitative easing (QE) programme increased prices and liquidity of bonds eligible to be purchased substantially. Bond yields dropped on average by 30 basis points (bps) (8%) after the CSPP announcement. Tri-party repo turnover rose by 8.15 million USD (29%), and bilateral turnover went up by 7.05 million USD (72%). Bid-ask spreads also showed significant liquidity improvement in eligible bonds. QE was successful in boosting corporate debt issuance. Firms issued 2.19 billion EUR (25%) more in QE-eligible debt after the CSPP announcement, compared to other types of debt. Surprisingly, corporates used the attracted funds mostly to increase dividends. These effects were more pronounced for longer-maturity, lower-rated bonds, and for more credit-constrained, lower-rated firms.

Time Varying Factors in the Performance of Corporate Bond Indices

We use a 3-factor Regime Switching Threshold model to study common factors in the excess returns of 18 European corporate bond indices during 2000-2014. Our results document significant time variation of the common factors across bond indices for different maturities, ratings and industries. The conditional response is particularly evident for the liquidity factor. We also compare models with different transition variables and identify key drivers of regime switches in the excess returns of sample bond indices.

A Dynamic Equilibrium Q Probability Measure for Poisson Yield Spreads – Review of European Corporate Bonds

This paper presents a new model for term risk, yield curve, and credit risk in spreads in a unified approach. The originality lies in the structuring of the Poisson stochastic of risk in a form suitable for finding the differential equation for the yield curve and its spreads as the Poisson Yield Spread Model (PYSM). A new P to Q change in measure is found for the purpose of parameterizing the stochastic component of the yield curve, based on a frequency specified version of the single event Poisson process. The PYSM determines the behaviour of discount rates and yield spreads over EU debt risk extremes.

The low beta anomaly: A corporate bond investor's perspective

AbstractThe low beta anomaly is well documented for equity markets. However, the existence of such a factor in corporate bond markets is less explored. I find that European corporate bonds of firms with a low equity beta have higher risk‐adjusted returns, on average, than European corporate bonds of firms with a high equity beta. The results are economically and statistically significant as low beta credit portfolios improve the Sharpe ratio up to 30%. Moreover, even after accounting for transaction costs and by considering long‐only portfolios, the risk‐adjusted return remains substantial indicating practical implementability of the strategy for corporate bond investors.

Mid-Price Estimation for European Corporate Bonds: A Particle Filtering Approach

In most illiquid markets, there is no obvious proxy for the market price of an asset. The European corporate bond market is an archetypal example of such an illiquid market where mid-prices can only be estimated with a statistical model. In this OTC market, dealers/market makers only have access, indeed, to partial information about the market. In real time, they know the price associated with their trades on the dealer-to-dealer (D2D) and dealer-to-client (D2C) markets, they know the result of the requests for quotes (RFQ) they answered, and they have access to composite prices (e.g., Bloomberg CBBT). This paper presents a Bayesian method for estimating the mid-price of corporate bonds by using the real-time information available to a dealer. This method relies on recent ideas coming from the particle filtering/sequential Monte Carlo literature.

Interest rate risk management with debt issues: Evidence from Europe

In comparison to bank financing, public debt market may allow firms to more readily match maturity and risk structures between their assets and liabilities. We test whether new issuers on the European corporate bond markets experience a change in their interest rate sensitivity upon their bond issuance. We find that stock returns have become significantly less sensitive to interest rate fluctuations for firms that enter the publicly traded bond market. Our findings support the notion that firms manage their interest rate risk with new debt issues.

Non-Pricing Drivers of Underwriterss Reputation in Corporate Bond Markets

In this paper, we explore the effects of pricing and non-pricing competitive factors on banks’ market shares as underwriters. Using a panel of underwriters in the European corporate bond markets from 2006-2013, we find that pricing factors are of second-order importance in explaining changes in underwriters’ market shares. Our results show that underwriting market shares exhibit a degree of persistency over time since prior market shares explain current market shares. Furthermore, providing joint lending and underwriting services, hiring star analysts for the underwriting team and being the leader bank placing bonds in a particular industry affects positively underwriters’ market shares.

Do Bank Bailouts Have an Impact on the Underwriting Business?

In this paper, we explore the effects of bank bailouts on competition in the underwriting business. Using all the bailout measures on underwriters active in the European corporate bond markets from 2006–2013, we find that banks with large market shares (reputable banks) suffer market share losses (of 18.98%) after being bailed out, while a market share increase (of 33.55%) for those with smaller market shares (non-reputable underwriters). An exploration of the firm–bank underwriting matching also shows that the probability of being chosen as underwriter in a given deal decreases for reputable bailed-out banks, while it increases for non-reputable bailed-out banks. These results provide evidence of the effects of bailouts on underwriting competition. However, the effects seem to differ depending on the ex-ante reputational capital of the bailed-out bank.

Momentum in the European Corporate Bond Market: The Role of Bond-Specific Returns

This paper analyzes momentum patterns in the European corporate bond market. We study a broad sample of Euro-denominated investment grade and noninvestment grade bonds covering the period January 2004 to October 2016. Our empirical findings reveal that momentum is mainly concentrated among noninvestment grade bonds. Furthermore, the composition of the momentum portfolios varies over time and is related to bond characteristics. Taking this into account, we apply characteristics-based adjustments in context with performance measurement and find momentum profits to remain robust. Most importantly, bond-specific return components seem to drive momentum patterns, indicating gradual information diffusion in bond prices.

Momentum in the European Corporate Bond Market: The Role of Bond-Specific Returns

Momentum in the European Corporate Bond Market: <i>The Role of Bond-Specific Returns</i>

Dynamic Portfolio Strategies in the European Corporate Bond Market

In this paper, we propose a dynamic portfolio strategy for European corporate bonds based on a two-factor pricing model. We introduce a strategy in which we forecast both future factors as well as bonds' future exposure to these factor. Using a unique dataset that is representative for the universe of actively quoted European corporate bonds, we find that the strategy based on forecasted factors outperforms a number of benchmark strategies, whereas the strategy based on forecasted exposures does not. There is, however, ample time variation in the performance, related to market uncertainty and the level of market integration. At the individual bond level, we find signifcant outperformance over the benchmark.