European Commission Methodology Research Articles

Direct diabetes-related healthcare expenditures in Slovenia: recent evolution and future projections based on population-level data

ABSTRACT Objective The burden of diabetes on individuals, healthcare systems, and society must be explored to improve and sustain diabetes care. With this aim, we estimated both past and future diabetes-related direct health expenditures in Slovenia. Methods Analysis of expenditures from the healthcare payer perspective during the 2019–2022 period was based on individual patient data on expenditures for seven groups of diabetes-related medical conditions from the population-level database of the Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia. Expenditure projections were prepared using the European Commission’s methodology for budgetary projections. Results In the 2019–2022 period, average annual diabetes-related expenditures equaled €174.1 million (€1,108 per patient), with their average annual growth rate reaching 12.5%. Expenditures due to inpatient care (33%) and drugs used in diabetes (24%) had the highest shares. More than half of the expenditures were due to complications of diabetes. The diabetes-related expenditures as a share of GDP are projected to increase by 19.2% from 2019 to 2030, with slower yet continued growth up to 2050. Conclusions Diabetes-related expenditures in Slovenia continue to rise. By focusing on the prevention and optimal management of diabetes, its impact on the healthcare system could be reduced significantly, given the magnitude of expenditures attributed to complications.

Government and Business Funding of Sources of Funds for R&D at Universities: Complements or Substitutes?

Abstract The paper examines the relationship between different sources of funding for research and development at universities. Following the European Commission methodology, we distinguished between government, business and abroad financing of research and development (R&D) in the higher education sector. The paper aims to test short-run and long-run relationships between different funding sources. We are focused on the relationship between government and business funding of R&D at universities. Based on panel data for EU countries, we applied the Granger causality tests and General methods of moments to examine short-run causality and cointegrating regression to search for potential long-run relationships. Our results suggest that government funding of R&D act as a complement to business funding. Hence, rising government financial support for research in higher education can, lead to higher funding from the business sector. Founding from abroad seems to have a similar effect on business funding in the long run.

From Potential GDP to Structural Balance: A Theoretical Reassessment and New Evidence for Italy

ABSTRACT Since the Maastricht Treaty, increasingly complex fiscal rules have been progressively introduced aimed at closely regulating and deeply affecting the budgetary policies of all signatory countries. One of the main reforms, enacted since 2005, has been to interpret national budget balances in structural terms, forcing each member state to comply with a Medium-Term Objective (MTO) based on the general principle of a zero-structural budget balance. Starting from the standard European Commission methodology for calculating the structural budget, our paper shows that, by replacing the estimate of the potential output based on the NAWRU with a different notion and measure of potential output, the results in terms of fiscal policy space are significantly different. This outcome points out the distinct possibility that the actual fiscal policies of the member states of the EU may be driven and constrained by a measure that seriously limits their flexibility by several percentage points. While our empirical calculations refer to Italy, the point we address is general and relates to all member states, particularly those that in the past have been forced to restrictive policies while in recession.

Sustainability of Investment Projects with Energy Efficiency and Non-Energy Efficiency Costs: Case Examples of Public Buildings

According to the European Commission Energy Union strategy from 2015, some of the main objectives are to improve energy efficiency, reduce dependence on energy imports, cut emissions, and drive jobs and growth. Achieving the objectives of the Energy Union requires significant financing, particularly for investments in energy efficiency. Serbia and Croatia included the objectives of the Energy Union in their national strategies and have implemented various investment projects in this area. This paper focuses on the sustainability of energy efficiency projects for public buildings which include not only energy efficiency investment cost but also non-energy efficiency investments. By applying the European Commission methodology for cost-benefit analysis, we assessed the sustainability of several projects in Serbia and Croatia. The sustainability assessment is done by quantifying energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reductions and the social and economic benefits that are related to non-energy efficiency project components. The values of economic performance indicators imply that society would be better off with projects that would contribute to achieving not only the targets set in national energy strategies but also to creating broader social benefits.

Nonlinear optimisation approach to proposing novel Croatian Industrial Confidence Indicator

Abstract Croatian Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI) is one of the measures of mangers’ sentiment about the economic situation in the Croatian manufacturing industry. Since 2005, the ICI has been calculated in accordance with the harmonised European Commission methodology as a simple average of three variables: order books, stocks of finished products and production expectation. It was empirically confirmed that the ICI could predict the direction of change in industrial production more than one month ahead. With the aim of raising the ICI forecasting power, this paper proposes a novel ICI with a different weighting scheme. The empirical analysis is based on monthly data for three standard ICI subcomponents and industrial production expressed as year-on-year growth rates. The data set covers the period from May 2008 to February 2019. Data sources were the European Commission and Eurostat. The newly defined ICI was constructed by using the nonlinear optimisation approach. The weights were determined by minimizing the root mean square error (RMSE) in a simple regression model and by maximizing the correlation coefficient between the ICI and industrial production for various time lags. The results reveal that the newly defined ICI performs better in adapting and following the industrial production growth rate as well as that the dominant component in the ICI is the production expectation.

What Drives the Responsiveness of the Budget Balance to the Business Cycle in EU Countries?

The European Commission methodology for computing the cyclically adjusted government budget balance provides a robust measurement of the fiscal position of the Member States. The fiscal semi-elasticities at the core of this method are structural parameters, mostly of fiscal nature, not linked to cyclical or other economic factors. Fiscal semi-elasticities also exhibit an emulation effect between neighbours and some groupings of countries.

Cost-benefit analysis of a circular economy project: a study on a recycling system for end-of-life tyres

End-of-life vehicles (ELV) represent a relevant waste source in Europe, even if ELV recycling is a priority of the European Union waste legislation and Environment Action Programmes (EAPs). End-of-Life Tires (ELTs) constitute a relevant portion of ELV waste. Textile fibre, which is a relevant portion of the ELT material, is considered as a special waste (European Waste Catalogue – EWC code 19.12.08). The main problem related to textile fibre is its contamination with rubber which does not allow to obtain a pure product economically and qualitatively useable.The aim of this paper is to illustrate an innovative technology for ELT fibre's recycling, which allows to transform textile fibre into a useful secondary raw material for different applications.In particular, the use of ELT fibre as additive for bituminous conglomerates has been investigated. The different processes have been analysed from an environmental point of view, applying the Life Cycle Assessment methodology. It came up there is an impact reduction in case the ELT fibre is reused as additive for bituminous conglomerates, instead of disposing it (through incineration).Moreover, the financial and economic sustainability of the related technological process has been evaluated to check whether the process is sustainable in the long term. Starting from the results of the Life Cycle Assessment, economic performance indicators have been calculated, by applying the European Commission methodology for cost-benefit analysis. According to the present cost-benefit analysis, in the medium and long term the system is financially viable, and the high economic profitability makes the process economically sustainable. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis as well as a risk assessment have been carried out in order to identify critical variables, evaluate risks and define risk mitigation measures. According to the sensitivity analysis performed, the project is not highly risky since even in the worst scenario the possible loss is moderate.Based on the results of this analysis, it can be concluded that this ELT fibre's recycling system can be replicated across Europe, conveniently fostered by national policies (such as subsidies, value added tax etc.).

Evaluation of Energy Consumption of Municipal Buildings by Heat Energy Demand Mapping

The work is based on the EU Directive 2012/27/EU concerning energy efficiency. One of the objectives for energy efficient solutions is improvement of existing district heating systems. Compared to individual boilers, district heating ensures a low-carbon and cost-effective way to heat buildings. In order to determine what would make significant improvement in the existing heating system and to identify what specific energy efficiency measures can be applied, it is necessary to evaluate the current situation. The study identified the potential heat consumers in the Salaspils municipality through a software of geographical information systems. With the help of a created heat map it is possible to determine the areas where it would be beneficial to extend the existing district heating network or vice versa. During the study, the comprehensive assessment of the efficient district heating potential for exploitation is made based on the data of consumer location and building characterization. The methodology for assessment of heat consumption that has been developed in this study is based on the European Commission's methodology for determining the comprehensive national heating potential. The study emphasizes identification of consumers and methods for their mapping and assessing possibilities of district heating potential in the respective region.

The influence of negative response style on survey-based household inflation expectations.

The study identified a sub-group of respondents adopting a negative response style in consumer tendency surveys and investigated their influence on aggregate household inflation expectations. Households prone to negative response style were identified using multi-group latent class models. The data source was the State of the Household Survey, conducted following European Commission methodology, in Poland between 1999 and 2010 (45 quarters). Although group size for households with negative response style was shown to fluctuate, negative response was comparable between periods. Micro-level information on response style was used to correct inflation expectations by the creation of additional factors for respondent weights. After compensation: (1) respondent inflation expectations proved more consistent with professional forecasts; (2) there was significantly better correlation between inflation expectations and consumer confidence; (3) compensated inflation expectations demonstrated the Ball–Friedman hypothesis; whereas, this pattern did not emerge for uncorrected data. Of the available household characteristics, income and age were the only significant determinants for negative response style.

Concepts of Confidence in Tendency Survey Research: An Assessment with Multi-group Confirmatory Factor Analysis.

In this paper, we investigate the link between the formal definition of confidence in tendency surveys and its measurement. We advocate for the use of reflective measures in an assessment of the confidence level in both consumer and industrial indicators. Based on the data from Poland’s tendency survey research, we use a multi-group confirmatory factor analytical approach to demonstrate that the set of indicators proposed by the European Commission methodology that is currently used might be not appropriate to measure the concept of confidence consistently, both within and between periods. The conclusion is true for the confidence indicator in the area of consumer tendency surveys and for the tendency survey in the manufacturing industry. We search for possible amendments that help either to find the sources of instability for the indicators proposed by the guidelines of the European Commission or to select a different set of indicators for the concept of confidence. However, we determine that the differences between the newly proposed indicator that describe industrial confidence and the indicators based on the European Commission methodology are small in terms of correlations and predictive validity.

Herfindahl–Hirschman index level of concentration values modification and analysis of their change

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) that measures the level of concentration in a given industry is a well-known and commonly accepted one indicator of market competition. On the basis of European Union Commission guidelines and HHI values, the given industry can be characterized as unconcentrated, moderately concentrated or concentrated. The paper is given over to a sensitivity analysis of HHI values, which allows simulations of concentration changes in relevant markets in order to assess new entries to the market. This paper derives relationships that allow the setting of boundaries in which the characteristic of industry concentration remains the same. Derived relations of HHI sensitivity analyses can be successfully used as a tool in assessing the entry of new subjects into any industry. In the case of economies with a smaller number of operating undertakings, it may be difficult to use the analysis based on the methodology of the European Commission. Therefore, the authors propose an approach of setting boundary ranges to characterize the concentration of the industry. Also, empirical analysis of the Slovak insurance industry, in which 23 insurance companies currently operate, was conducted on the basis of the European Commission methodology.

Assessing the possible radiological impact of routine radiological discharges from proposed nuclear power stations in England and Wales

The aim of this work is to assess the possible radiological impact on the population of the United Kingdom (UK) from new nuclear power stations proposed for up to eight sites in England and Wales. The radiological impact was measured in terms of collective dose to the UK, European and world populations from a single year’s discharge integrated to 500 and 100 000 years and the annual dose to an average member of the UK population (known as the per-caput dose). The doses were calculated for two reactor types, UK EPR™ and AP1000™, using the annual expected discharges estimated by the designers of the reactors and assuming two reactors per site. In addition, typical individual doses to adults living close to the sites were calculated on the basis of continuous discharges for 60 years (the assumed lifetime of the reactors). The dose to a representative person (previously known as the critical group) was not calculated, as this has been done elsewhere. The assessments were carried out using the software program PC-CREAM 08® which implements the updated European Commission methodology for assessing the radiological impact of routine releases of radionuclides to the environment. The collective dose truncated to 500 years to the UK population was estimated to be 0.5 manSv assuming UK EPR reactors on all sites and 0.6 manSv assuming AP1000s on three sites with UK EPRs on the other sites. The most significant contribution to the collective dose to the UK population is due to the global circulation of carbon-14 released to the atmosphere. The annual dose to an average member of the UK population from all sites was calculated to be around 10 nSv y−1 and would therefore contribute little to an individual’s total radiation dose. All the calculated doses to a typical adult living near the sites assuming continuous discharges for 60 years were found to be below 1 μSv y−1.

Discretionary Measures and Automatic Stabilizers in the Croatian Fiscal Policy

The role of fiscal policy as a tool to stabilize business cycle fluctuations has been at the center of recent public debates. If governments allow automatic fiscal stabilizers to work fully in a downswing but fail to resist the temptation to spend cyclical revenue increases during an upswing, the stabilizers may lead to bias toward budget positions. This paper assesses to what extent some items of the Croatian central government budget operate to smooth the business cycle. For disentangling automatic stabilizers from discretionary measures, this research relies on the European Commission methodology. Results show that the structural budget balance was on average 1.74% of GDP in deficit in the period between 1995 and 2009. Automatic stabilisation in Croatia is relatively weak and supplemented by discretionary measures, which led to “destabilizing” the economic activity in a pro-cyclical manner in Croatia in several observed periods.

Avian Toxicity Reference Values for Perfluorooctane Sulfonate

Toxicity reference values (TRVs) and predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs) were derived for perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) based on the characteristics of a top avian predator. On the basis of the protective assumptions used in this assessment, the benchmarks are protective of avian populations and were based on acute and chronic dietary exposures of northern bobwhite quail and mallard. Toxicological endpoints included mortality, growth, feed consumption, and histopathology. Reproductive endpoints included egg production, fertility, hatchability and survival, and growth of offspring. On the basis of the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency Great Lakes Initiative methodology, and a lowest observable adverse effect concentration (LOAEC) of 10 mg PFOS kg(-1) feed, an uncertainty factor of 36 was derived. The TRV based on PFOS dietary intake was 0.021 mg PFOS kg(-1) body weight day(-1), while for serum, liver, and egg, TRVs were 1.7 microg PFOS mL(-1), 0.6 microg PFOS g(-1) wet weight, and 1.7 microg PFOS mL(-1), respectively. On the basis of the European Commission methodology, a correction factor of 2 (for lowest observed effect level to no observable effect level) and an assessment factor of 30, for a total adjustment of 60, were used to derive PNECs. PNECs based on dietary, mean serum, liver, and egg PFOS concentrations were 0.013 mg PFOS kg(-1) body weight day(-1), 1.0 microg PFOS mL(-1), 0.35 microg PFOS g(-1) wet weight, and 1.0 microg PFOS mL(-1), respectively.