Euro Prices Research Articles

FORECASTING THE EURO EXCHANGE RATE USING DEEP LEARNING ALGORITHMS AND MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS

Given that time series forecasts are of great importance in the financial world, the main objective of this study is to forecast Euro prices and examine the contribution of these forecasts to financial decision-making processes. Since the Euro is an important component of international trade and investment, accurate price forecasts are of strategic importance for many financial institutions and investors. In this study, we compare the performance of deep learning algorithms and classical machine learning methods for forecasting Euro prices: support vector machines (SVM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), long short-term memory (LSTM), and gated recurrent units (GRU). These methods represent different algorithms that are widely used in financial forecasting and give successful results. The dataset used in the study was divided into two parts: 80% training and 20% testing, and it is also indicated how each algorithm behaved during the training process and which parameters were chosen. The results are presented by comparing the performance of these algorithms, and it is found that the GRU algorithm provides better accuracy than the others. Therefore, the GRU algorithm was chosen to forecast Euro prices for the next 12 months, and the forecasting process was carried out. The results of this study are expected to provide an important perspective to financial decision-makers by comprehensively comparing the performance of deep learning and traditional approaches in Euro price forecasting. It also includes potential research avenues for future work and suggestions for the development of new methods in this area.

The role of human capital and stress for cost awareness in the healthcare system: a survey among German hospital physicians

BackgroundGermany has the highest per capita health care spending among EU member states, but its hospitals face pressure to generate profits independently due to the government’s withdrawal of investment cost coverage. The diagnosis related groups (DRG) payment system was implemented to address the cost issue, challenging hospital physicians to provide services within predefined prices and an economic target corridor to reduce costs. This study examines the extent of cost awareness among medical personnel in German hospitals and its influencing factors.MethodsWe developed an online survey in which participants across all specialties in hospitals estimated the prices in euros of four common interventions and answered questions about their human capital and perceived stress on the workplace. As a measure of cost awareness, we used the probability of estimating the prices correctly within a reasonable margin. We employed logit logistic regression estimators to identify influencing factors in a sample of 86 participants.ResultsThe results revealed that most of the respondents were unaware of the costs of common interventions. General human capital, acquired through prior education, and job-specific human capital had no influence on cost awareness, whereas domain-specific human capital, that is, gaining economic knowledge based on self-interest, had a positive nonlinear effect on cost awareness. Furthermore, an increased stress level negatively influenced cost awareness.ConclusionsThis paper is the first of its kind for the German health care sector that contributes responses to the question whether health care professionals in German hospitals have cost awareness and if not, what reasons lie behind this lack of knowledge. Our findings show that the cost awareness desired by the introduction of the DRG system has yet to be achieved by medical personnel.

Forecasting long-term world annual natural gas production by machine learning

The goal of this study is to model the global annual natural gas production using a variety of machine learning models in order to predict future production and determine a peak production date. World gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parities (at PPPs), inflation percentage, Henry Hub Price, Euro Price, cumulative natural gas resources, and annually discovered new resources were taken as descriptor variables, and Shapley analysis was conducted to observe the importance of features on the dataset. It was revealed according to this analysis that, Henry Hub price, inflation percentage, and newly discovered resources had minor effects on natural gas production, so they were left out. Then, a variety of machine learning algorithms were employed and the one with the highest prediction ability was found to be the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm. Next, this model was tested under four different scenarios, each with different GDP and natural gas price projections. Finally, natural gas production was found to reach its peak sometime between 2034 and 2046. It was then concluded that rather than relying on a traditional approach based on the Hubbert Curve, a machine learning model that takes into account all relevant factors can be used to accurately forecast natural gas production and its peak time, allowing governments and policymakers to make the necessary preparations.

How Do the Exchange Rates Affect the Sector Indices? A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis for Borsa Istanbul

This paper aims to investigate the impact of the exchange rate on stock market indices of four main sectors in Turkey. For this purpose, the paper uses monthly data spanning the period between 06/2008-11/2020 and employs the panel GMM estimation method. This method instrumentalizes the past observation values of the dependent variable to control the endogeneity and provides efficient results. Considering that firms operating in many sectors in Turkey are affected by the volatility of the exchange rate, the paper takes initiative in understanding how stock market indices of four sectors react to the fluctuation in USD and Euro prices. This study contributes to the current literature, performing the panel GMM estimation method, unlike studies that only examine the causality relationship on the link between exchange rate and the stock market. The results show that there is unidirectional causality from the exchange rate to stock market indices. According to our findings, the USD/TRY exchange rate negatively affects stock market indices, and the Euro/TRY exchange rate positively affects stock market indices. The findings obtained from the analysis results confirm prior knowledge acquired from Turkey’s foreign trade structure.

Investigation of Causality Relationships among COVID-19 Cases, ISE100 Index, Dollar, Euro, Gram Gold Prices and 2 Years Bond Rates: The Case of Turkey

The purpose of this research is to analyze such economic data during the outbreak of the COVID-19 in Turkey. The variable rates were taken from COVID-19 situations, ISE-100 index, Turkish lira dollar (TRY), TRY euro prices, TRY gram Gold and two year bond rates. General COVID-19 information was provided and certain financial indicators were investigated in COVID-19 (47 days). First of all, these variables were used as descriptive statistics and correlation matrix. For the purposes of stationarity testing, the first variables were stationary with Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Terron Tests. The lag duration of the deployment model VECM was then calculated as the fourth lag with the highest information requirement. The co-integration relationship between the variables was calculated by the Johansen Cointegration Test. Thanks to this relationship, the variables have a long-term correlation. The Vector Fix Model (VECM) was chosen because it is co-integration. Inverse roots, autocorrelation and normality have been developed, which are essential assumptions to use the VECM (4) model; Therefore, the Granger Causality / Block Exogeneity Wald Test was applied to the variables of the VECM(4) model to define causality relationships between these variables. The results of this test have identified causalities for Turkey 2 years of government bond rates, Euro in TRY, Dollar prices in TRY and Gram in TRY.

Disentangling the role of the exchange rate in oil-related scenarios for the European stock market

The literature has been analysing so far the response of the stock market to a distress scenario for oil prices considering prices in domestic currency. This assumption implies merging commodity risk and exchange rate risk. This article proposes to generate oil-related scenario depending on the source of risk. The same distress oil-related scenario in euros could generate an opposite impact on the European stock market depending on the source of risk. Results show higher losses for Eurostoxx when oil prices in euros experience a downward movement due to a decrease of oil price in US dollars and when oil prices in euros experience an upward movement due to a depreciation of the euro against the US dollar. This framework can improve our understanding of how the exchange rate interacts in global markets. Also, it contributes to the design of tailor-made international scenarios for stress testing.

Using of Fractal Analysis and Artificial Neural Networks to Build a Mathematical Model for Determining Trends

In modern society, it is difficult to overestimate the impact of information on economic processes. Due to the evolution of global networks and communications, appearing of any information (including false) in the media, can have a significant impact on financial markets. Therefore, the possession of correct and relevant data is important for all players on the burse. The more complete information about an asset will have a financial investor, the more accurate predictions for the future he can build. Forecasting, in turn, requires the use of various mathematical and economic models, which based on both theoretical information on the mechanisms of market processes and practical knowledge of the market, obtained from experience. The methods of statistical analysis are the most common ways to study time and finance series. This paper contains a description of the methodology to determine the state of the currency market based on the use of fractal and cluster analyzes. As an example, the quotes of the single European currency (euro) against the Russian ruble for the period from 2010 to 2017 were investigated. The authors reviewed the behavior of the euro price and calculated the monthly fractal dimensions for the corresponding time series in order to identify their relationship with the trends. Then a cluster analysis was carried out using artificial neural network technology, which revealed various types of situations (trends) emerging on the currency market: stability, pre-crisis period and crisis situations. Testing of the built mathematical model for determining the trends was carried out by using information about euro rates for the first 8 months of 2018 year. Theoretical studies in conjunction with the obtained results made it possible to conclude, that the method proposed by the authors for determining the situation on the financial market is universal and can also be used to analyze the behavior of the securities rates.

Development of intuition in a new currency, the Euro: The Slovak experience

Adaptation to an unfamiliar currency is required regularly of international travellers – and also of citizens of countries changing their currency, such as the 19 (to date) Eurozone members. We report on the currency adaptation process in the Slovak Republic during 2008-2011. We analyse its effects on citizens’ development of price intuition in the euro. Our study draws on Hofmann et al.’s (2007) work, which proposed four different strategies for coping, ranging from direct numerical conversion to developing intuition. We conducted repeated cross-sectional surveys using structured questionnaires in realistic Slovak settings. We describe European and Slovak institutions’ supports for the public, such as dual display of prices, and readily available conversion tables. We found that, whereas the numerical conversion strategy was used most frequently by respondents in the first year, within two years they were already developing intuition in the new currency, especially for frequently bought products. We also investigated the ‘Euro Illusion’, the extent to which Slovak citizens, in their evaluation of prices, may have been influenced to make decisions based on nominal values, whereby prices in euros seemed smaller than those in Slovak crowns. We summarise suggestions for promoting learning in situations of currency change, and briefly discuss the features of the Slovak process as a ‘numerate environment’.
 KeywordsPrice intuition; numeracy; learning; intuition strategy; marker value strategy; anchor strategy; numerical conversion strategy.

Factors influencing hospital admission and associated hospital costs of traffic victims admitted to an emergency department

Abstract Objective Use of health care services and hospitalisation associated with traffic accidents impose an economic burden on society. This study analyses the determinants of hospitalisation and hospital costs associated with road traffic accidents in Belgium, using an emergency and hospital care dataset. Participants Traffic victims ( N =4645) admitted to the emergency department of the university hospital Brussels. Methods A logistic regression analysis and a generalised linear model (GLM) were used to analyse the probability of hospitalisation and costs respectively, controlling for roadway user categories, demographic (gender, age, and individual socioeconomic status (SES)) and clinical (nature, location, and severity of injury) characteristics. Results 20.3% of the traffic victims who went to the emergency department were hospitalised. The probability of hospitalisation, controlled for confounding factors, was significantly higher in victims aged 0–16 years (OR 2.46 (95% CI 1.74–3.49)) and ≥60 years (OR 1.52 (95% CI 1.06–2.17)) compared to those in age category 30–44 years. Motorcyclists, controlled for demographic and clinical factors, were significantly less likely to be hospitalised compared to pedestrians (OR 0.61 (95% CI 0.39–0.94)). Fractures and internal injuries were associated with the highest probability to be hospitalised. The GLM-analyses revealed that, controlled for confounding factors, men, older age and low SES patients were associated with higher hospital costs. The median hospital cost was €3273 (IQR €1733–€8891, 2011 euro price level) for inpatients. Conclusion In general, most of injury literature report ‘unit costs’ for fatally, severely and slightly injured traffic victims. This study demonstrates that other criteria such as traffic victim characteristics (gender, age, SES) and injury characteristics (nature, location, severity) need to be considered in order to give a more accurate picture of the probability of hospitalisation and associated medical costs.

Cost effectiveness of lanthanum carbonate in chronic kidney disease patients in Spain before and during dialysis.

AIMSIn Spain, the first line treatment of hyperphosphatemia in Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) consists of calcium-based phosphate binders (CB). However, their use is associated with vascular calcification and an increased mortality risk. The aim of this study was to assess the incremental cost-effectiveness of second-line Lanthanum Carbonate (LC) treatment in patients not responding to CB (calcium carbonate and calcium acetate).Material and methodsA lifetime Markov model was developed considering three health states (predialysis, dialysis and death). Transitions between states and efficacy data were obtained from randomized clinical trials and the European Dialysis and Transplant Association Annual report. Mortality rate was adjusted with the relative risk related to serum phosphorus levels.According to the Spanish healthcare system perspective, only medical direct costs were considered. Dialysis costs (2013 prices in Euros) were obtained from diagnosis-related groups. Drug costs were derived from ex-factory prices, adjusted with 7.5% mandatory rebate. Quality of life estimates were based on a published systematic review. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3%. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were conducted.ResultsAt the end of simulation, costs per patient with LC therapy were €1,169 and €5,044 with CB alone. 4.653 Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) were gained per patient treated with LC, and 4.579 QALYs with CB. CB therapy is dominated by the LC strategy (i.e. lower costs, higher QALYs). Assuming a €30,000/QALY threshold, LC was dominant in 100% of PSA simulations.ConclusionsLC is a cost-effective second line treatment of hyperphosphatemia in CKD patients irrespective of dialysis status in Spain.

The Price Knowledge Paradox: Why Consumers Have Lower Confidence in, but Better Recall of Unfamiliar Prices

This paper introduces the price knowledge paradox: an effect where consumers have lower confidence in their price memory for unfamiliar (versus familiar) prices, but, in fact, have better recall of unfamiliar (versus familiar) prices. We propose that this effect is due to unfamiliar price formats being processed more intentionally, leading to their being better encoded, and accordingly, more accurately retrieved from memory. Familiar price formats, on the other hand, are processed less intentionally, leading to consumers being over confident in their memory for familiar prices. Results from a field experiment with French shoppers (n = 683) conducted 6 months prior to the introduction of the Euro, demonstrates that consumers exposed to prices in Euros are almost twice as likely to recall the exact price of the product as compared to those exposed to prices in French Francs, although only 69 % of those seeing Euro prices (versus 85 % in FFs) said they could recall the price—the price knowledge paradox. Importantly, these effects carry through to intentions to purchase. The theoretical contributions of the manner in which consumers’ process familiar versus unfamiliar price information has implications for international pricing managers and public authorities facing monetary changes across and within countries.

Biosimilar Granulocyte Colony-Stimulating Factor Uptakes in the EU-5 Markets: A Descriptive Analysis

Biosimilars are copies of biological reference medicines. Unlike generics (copies of chemical molecules), biologics are complex, expensive and complicated to produce. The knowledge of the factors affecting the competition following patent expiry for biologics remains limited. The aims of this study were to analyse the EU-5 Granulocyte-Colony Stimulating Factor (G-CSF) markets and to determine the factors affecting the G-CSF biosimilar uptakes, particularly that of biosimilar prices relative to originators. Data on medicine volumes, values, and ex-manufacturer prices for all G-CSF categories were provided by IMS Health. Volumes were calculated in defined daily doses (DDD) and prices in Euros per DDD. In the EU-5 countries, there is 5 years of experience with biosimilar G-CSFs (2007-2011). Two G-CSF market profiles exist: (1) countries with a high retail market distribution, which are the largest G-CSF markets with low global G-CSF biosimilar uptakes (5.4% in France and 8.5% in Germany in 2011); and (2) countries with a dominant hospital channel, which are the smallest markets with higher G-CSF biosimilar uptakes (12.4% in Spain and 20.4% in the UK). The more the decisions are decentralized, the more their uptakes are high. The price difference between G-CSF biosimilars and their reference plays a marginal role at a global level (price differences of +13.3% in the UK and -20.4% in France). The competition with G-CSF biosimilars varies significantly between EU-5 countries, probably because of G-CSF distribution channel differences. Currently, this competition is not mainly based on prices, but on local political options to stimulate tendering between them and recently branded second- or third-generation products.

Análisis de costes de tres candinas en el tratamiento de la candidiasis invasora en pacientes adultos no neutropénicos en España

ObjectiveTo estimate the cost of 3 candins (anidulafungin, caspofungin and micafungin) in the treatment of adult non-neutropaenic patients with invasive candidiasis (IC) in a Spanish hospital pharmacy setting. MethodsThe overall cost impact was evaluated by varying the percentage dosage required of each candin in different possible scenarios. The prices (in euros) for each presentation were obtained from the Drug Catalogue (in August 2010). Only drug purchase costs were considered. The results are expressed as total cost for each of the 3 candins. ResultsThe cost per episode (14 days) of anidulafungin was constant at €5400 per patient. The cost of caspofungin varied from €4281 to €7991, depending on patient weight and liver dysfunction. The cost of micafungin varied from €6000 (100mg/day) to €9000 (when increasing the dose due to inadequate response). Based on a hypothetic cohort of 100 patients with IC, the total cost of anidulafungin treatment would be €540 000, for caspofungin it would be €631 459, and for micafungin it would be €632 998, depending on any dose adjustment required. ConclusionPatients treated with anidulafungin did not require dose adjustment, unlike those treated with caspofungin or micafungin. The use of anidulafungin is a cost-saving treatment for adult non-neutropaenic patients with IC, which would result in better control of the Spanish pharmacy budget.

Gold and the Dollar (and the Euro, Pound, and Yen)

Usually, gold and the Dollar are negatively related; when the Dollar price of gold increases, the Dollar depreciates against other currencies. This is intuitively puzzling because it seems to suggest that gold prices are associated with appreciation in other currencies. Why should the Dollar be different? We show here that there is actually no puzzle. The price of gold can be associated with currency depreciation in every country. The Dollar price of gold can be related to Dollar depreciation and the Euro (Pound, Yen) price of gold can be related to Euro (Pound, Yen) depreciation. Indeed, this is usually the case empirically.

Attractive Prices and Euro-Rounding Effects on Inflation

Approximately 70% of Belgian consumer prices are to be considered as attractive prices, namely psychological prices, fractional prices - i. e. prices which are convenient to pay - and round prices. Conversion of these prices into euro generally leads to prices which are no longer attractive and it is very likely that retailers will round their prices to attractive euro prices. The public fears that rounding will be upward rather than symmetric. This paper simulates in the first instance a worst-case scenario, whereby all attractive BEF prices are systematically rounded up to the nearest attractive euro price. The effect on the consumer price index ranges from 0.54 to 0.72%. Such a scenario is however very unlikely, as factors such as competition on product markets, the currently prevailing demand conditions, the commitments made by organisations representing the enterprise sector and the vigilant attitude of consumers restrain the possibility of rounding up. In order to obtain a more realistic picture, the paper investigates in a second step whether rounding-up effects were found after the major change in VAT rates in April 1992. These effects seem marginal, although it should be acknowledged that it was difficult to isolate rounding effects from regular price changes. Any ex post assessment of the euro changeover will face a similar identification problem.

Perceived inflation and the euro: Evidence from an Austrian survey

This paper employs an Austrian micro-dataset to analyze why inflation perceptions became disconnected from official inflation measures in the course of the euro cash changeover. We find evidence that persons who are more often confronted with prices, who expected price increases and who mentally convert euro prices into old currency prices when making price comparisons have a significantly higher perception of inflation. Furthermore, our results indicate that the latter two factors have a persistent impact. This contributes in explaining why price perceptions have not normalized for several years in some countries. The results suggest that policy measures in countries which are going to introduce the euro should address these issues in order to prevent a similar development as experienced in many euro area countries.

Euro Adoption and Prices in Catering Industry in Slovenia

This paper analyses the causes of the catering industry inflation pre- and post-adoption of the Euro in Slovenia. The empirical analysis on the factors of inflation in the catering industry is based on the monthly statistical data during the period 2000-2007. The empirical analysis confirms that the catering industry prices are positively associated with the costs of intermediary inputs, wages in the catering industry, demand for tourist services, and the Euro adoption. The two common components are identified as the general level of prices and wages in the catering industry, and the Euro price adoption and Euro price stabilization by using the principal component analysis. The multiple regression analysis confirms the association of the catering industry prices with the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages as intermediate input costs and wages in the catering industry, and to a lesser extent with the Euro adoption in Slovenia and by demands for tourist services. On the short-run, the catering industry prices were positively and statistically significantly associated with the growing input costs for food, and wages in the catering industry.

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma: retrospective study on the cost-effectiveness of early treatment response assessment by FDG-PET

Although lymphomas are very chemosensitive, 50% of patients with aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) are not cured with standard first-line treatment. This consists of six cycles of doxorubicin, vincristine, prednisolone and cyclophosphamide (CHOP), recently complemented with rituximab. Preliminary studies show that PET mid-treatment is a good predictor of the remission status at the end of therapy. As patients with persistent FDG uptake after three cycles are unlikely to gain a complete remission, the remaining three cycles of chemotherapy are useless. We investigated the costs and benefits for the use of PET in this early treatment setting. We conceived a model using a conventional arm where patients receive the full regimen of six cycles of CHOP [-rituximab] and an experimental algorithm where patients receive either six cycles (PET response) or only three cycles (PET non-response). Based on a patient sample (2004-2006), we calculated the costs for hospitalisation and treatment. We took into account all costs accrued (including overhead costs). We used a sensitivity analysis by varying the most important parameters. With a PET price of 700 euro and CHOP price (per cycle) of 1,829 euro , we can conclude to cost saving of 1,879 euro per patient. The PET price can increase up to 2,580 euro and the cost for one cycle of CHOP can decrease to 500 euro per cycle before cost savings are nil. The percentage of non-responders may be as low as 10%. The implementation of rituximab in first-line therapy only increases benefit (4,900 euro/pt). We conclude to substantial cost savings if management of NHL patients is based on mid-treatment PET scan. The economical data we used seem to be comparable to those published in other European studies. Implementation of Mabthera in first line only increases cost savings.

Losing more than gaining from overall stable prices: the differential perception of increasing versus decreasing prices made the Euro look like a price booster

AbstractThe present research examined whether price trend misperceptions can be explained by the differential perception of increasing versus decreasing prices. We expected price increases (losses to consumers) to be perceived as being more intense than price decreases (gains to consumers) of the same magnitude. This tendency, in turn, should be positively associated with how people perceive the overall price trend. To test this reasoning, participants in the first two studies were asked to compare German Mark (DM) and Euro prices. First, participants received a menu containing 21 dishes with DM prices, and their price trend expectations were assessed. Then, participants indicated for each dish to what extent the price had changed. Finally, participants' overall price trend judgments were assessed. In both studies, results indicate that price trend judgments were biased toward rising prices. In addition, price increases were perceived as rising more than price decreases of the same magnitude were perceived as falling. This tendency was positively associated with overall price trend judgments, even after controlling for expectations. Study 3 was to replicate these findings in a different domain to demonstrate the general nature and impact of the hypothesized effect. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Euro Changeover and Numerical Intuition for Prices in the Old and New Currencies

This study examines how numerical intuition for prices in euros and in the Portuguese currency escudos developed in Portugal after the euro changeover. Estimates of prices of 40 different products were collected in the two currencies and at four different times from November 2001 to April 2004. The results regarding price estimates in euros were more in accordance with a relearning hypothesis considering that price estimates become progressively more accurate by a process that is related to purchase frequency. It was also suggested that this is a very slow process and that prices in the former currency are not simply forgotten. On the contrary, the escudos remained a general benchmark for an extended period. The results regarding estimated price intuition and use of intuition in estimating prices are also consistent with a slow adaptation process. Implications for future euro changeovers are discussed.