Euro Area Banks Research Articles

Estimating systemic risk for non-listed Euro-area banks

SRISK is a measure of a firms' systemic risk contribution that is computed using its listed stock market price. SRISK measurement is extended and applied to firms that do not have listed equity. A mapping from balance sheet characteristics to SRISK for listed firms is applied to SRISK for unlisted European banks. The mapping is validated by comparing SRISK measures for unlisted banks with their losses in European bank stress-testing.

DRIVERS OF PROFIT CONVERGENCE IN EURO AREA BANKS

Since there are persistent concerns about the viability of euro area banks, we analyse their profit recovery in the post-crisis period, applying the concepts of β and σ convergence as well as the Phillips and Sul clustering algorithm. The results are consistent with ROE convergence, but to different levels across bank groups. The clustering analysis reveals the existence of banks with solid performance, but also a group of persistent underperformers. We find that non-interest income and operational efficiency emerge as crucial discriminating factors to explain the banks’ relative post-crisis ROE dynamics. Supervisors and bank managers are advised to monitor and reinforce bank business model viability.

Measuring the macroprudential policy stance in the euro area with a semi‐structural model

AbstractThis article proposes a methodology for measuring the macroprudential policy stance based on a forward‐looking distance‐to‐tail metric derived from a large‐scale semi‐structural model. The model reflects the dynamics of 89 significant euro area banks and 19 euro area economies and two endogenous amplification mechanisms: the real economy banking sector and solvency funding feedback loops. Our results reveal a slight tightening of the macroprudential policy stance from 2017 to the end of 2019 that partially stemmed from adjusting macroprudential capital buffers and the phase‐in of other systemwide banking sector policies reflecting macroprudential intentions. This trend is abruptly interrupted at the onset of the Covid‐19 pandemic, when pronounced macrofinancial uncertainty led to a substantial increase in tail risks and reappears in 2021. Our assessment also reveals a high degree of co‐movement in macroprudential stances across the euro area countries.

Lessons from low interest rate policy: How did euro area banks respond?

This paper studies the impact of the Eurosystem’s low interest rate policy on euro area banks. We first assess the impact of low rates on banks’ net interest margins. An important extension to previous studies is that we split the interest margin into a funding and lending component. The decomposition makes clear that the low interest rate environment significantly reduced banks’ net interest income by squeezing funding margins, which corroborates the reversal rate literature. We find no strong evidence that banks have boosted their lending margins to offset the lost funding margin. However, we do observe that banks partly compensated for the impact of low rates by switching to non-interest income sources and by cost savings. We also find that low interest rates have not reduced bank lending, which suggests that banks’ compensatory measures largely outweighed the impact of low rates.

Revisiting the estimation of the cost of equity of euro area banks

El objetivo de este artículo es estimar el coste de capital de una amplia muestra de entidades de crédito del área del euro. Con este fin, los autores consideran varias metodologías de estimación bajo dos enfoques principales: i) modelos de series temporales multifactoriales de rendimientos bursátiles, y ii) modelos de descuento de dividendos. Se observa que, a escala nacional, las estimaciones de los distintos modelos muestran una variación temporal similar, pero las diferencias en niveles pueden ser considerables. La relación entre las distintas estimaciones de coste de capital y los observables bancarios es relativamente débil. Las estimaciones de los modelos de descuento de dividendos muestran una relación algo más sólida con los fundamentos bancarios, mientras que las de los modelos de factores lo hacen más claramente solo para las entidades de mayor tamaño. Una medida combinada, construida como un promedio simple entre modelos, también muestra una asociación moderada con los fundamentos. En general, los resultados destacan las incertidumbres inherentes a la estimación del coste del capital y la importancia de considerar diferentes modelos alternativos.

Revisiting the estimation of the cost of equity of euro area banks

The aim of this article is to estimate the cost of equity for a large sample of euro area banks. To this end, the authors consider several estimation methodologies falling under two main approaches: (i) multi-factor time-series models of stock market returns; and (ii) dividend discount models. It is found that, at country level, the estimates of the various models display a similar time variation, but differences in levels can be substantial. The relationship between the different cost of equity estimates and bank observables is relatively weak. Estimates from dividend discount models show a somewhat more robust relationship with bank fundamentals, while those from factor models do so more clearly only for larger banks. A combined measure built as a simple average across models also shows a moderate association with fundamentals. Overall, the results highlight the uncertainties inherent in cost of equity estimation and the importance of considering different alternative models.

The impact of Covid‐19 on banking groups’ balance sheets in the euro area

AbstractMost studies have found that the Covid‐19 pandemic did not negatively impact the euro area banking industry's performance at an aggregate level. This study explores whether this finding still holds using the return on assets of 16 banking groups operating in the euro area and considering bank‐specific factors, idiosyncrasies related to different exposures of their portfolios to the business cycle and weaknesses stemming from underlying structural vulnerabilities. The banking groups are classified into clusters using unsupervised learning techniques. This research contributes to the empirical literature on the determinants of banks’ performance by highlighting the importance of banks’ heterogeneity, notably controlling for differential performance due to asset quality, solvency and business model. In addition, this paper shows that the magnitude of return on assets’ exposure to the business cycle varies across banks and that inflation in the euro area matters only for a subset of them. Importantly, the study sheds some light on the possible reasons for the mixed results in the literature regarding the role of non‐interest income, the T1 capital ratio and inflation. Finally, no significant effects of the Covid‐19 variables on banks’ return on assets are found during the first seven quarters of the pandemic.

Euro area banks' asset‐liability dependency and unconventional monetary policy over the years 2013–2021: Does size matter?

AbstractFocusing on a sample of euro area commercial banks, we investigate the evolution of the asset‐liability dependency over the years 2013–2021, characterized by the introduction of monetary, supervisory and institutional policy measures that shaped a business environment never experienced before. We find that large banks show a stronger asset‐liability dependency than small banks, and that the linkages between the two sides of the balance sheet experience a general upward trend over time for both groups of intermediaries. We report evidence of the presence of two transmission channels of the unconventional monetary policy, namely, the direct pass‐through and the portfolio rebalancing.

Curse and blessing: The effect of the dividend ban on euro area bank valuations and syndicated lending

At the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the European Central Bank issued a strong recommendation towards banks to halt dividend payouts. The goal of this de facto dividend ban was to boost banks' capital to ensure the supply of credit. However, given the importance of dividends for investors, this unprecedented measure is likely to have impacted bank valuations. Hence, banks may have chosen to preserve their higher capital buffers to boost payouts after the lifting of the ban, rendering the intended positive effect on credit supply a priori uncertain. We first investigate the effect of the dividend ban announcement on euro area banks' valuations and find a significantly negative impact. Second, we show that banks significantly expanded credit supply in the syndicated loan market, without counteracting effect of the negative stock market reaction. Our findings are corroborated when we exploit the multi-bank nature of syndicated loans in a within-loan setup.

Impact of higher capital buffers on banks’ lending and risk-taking in the short- and medium-term: Evidence from the euro area experiments

We study the impact of higher capital buffers on bank lending and risk-taking behaviour, at different time horizons following the initial policy decision. Employing a regression discontinuity design and confidential centralised supervisory data for euro area banks from 2014 to 2017, our research uniquely explores the effects of the EU policy on other systemically important institutions (O-SIIs) through a quasi-randomised experiment, exploiting the induced policy change and discontinuity of the O-SII identification process. Our findings show that the introduction of the O-SII buffers resulted in a short-term reduction in credit supply to households and financial sector, followed by a medium-term shift towards less risky borrowers, particularly in the household sector. We find a temporary cut in loan growth post-capital hikes, succeeded by a rebound in the medium-term. Our results substantiate the hypothesis that higher capital buffers can positively discipline banks by reducing risk-taking in the medium-term. At the same time, evidence suggests a limited adverse impact on the real economy, characterised by a temporary reduction in credit supply restricted to instances of macroprudential policy tightening.

Determinants of the Profitability and Stability of Euro Area Banks During the Ice Age of Interest Rates

Determinants of the Profitability and Stability of Euro Area Banks During the Ice Age of Interest Rates

On the optimal control of interbank contagion in the euro area banking system

In this paper we present a methodology of model-based calibration of additional capital needed in an interconnected financial system to minimize potential contagion losses. Building on ideas from combinatorial optimization tailored to controlling contagion in case of complete information about an interbank network, we augment the model with three plausible types of fire sale mechanisms. We then demonstrate the power of the methodology on the euro area banking system based on a network of 373 banks. On the basis of an exogenous shock leading to defaults of some banks in the network, we find that the contagion losses and the policy authority’s ability to control them depend on the assumed fire sale mechanism and the fiscal budget constraint that may or may not restrain the policy authorities from infusing money to halt the contagion. The modelling framework could be used both as a crisis management tool to help inform decisions on capital/liquidity infusions in the context of resolutions and precautionary recapitalizations or as a crisis prevention tool to help calibrate capital buffer requirements to address systemic risks due to interconnectedness.

A Portfolio Perspective on Euro Area Bank Profitability Using Stress Test Data

A Portfolio Perspective on Euro Area Bank Profitability Using Stress Test Data

2023 Macroprudential Stress Test of the Euro Area Banking System

2023 Macroprudential Stress Test of the Euro Area Banking System

A New Measure of Firm-Level Competition: An Application to Euro Area Banks

A New Measure of Firm-Level Competition: An Application to Euro Area Banks

ECB Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Bank Default Risk

Euro Area banks have been confronted with unprecedented monetary policy actions by the ECB. Monetary policy may affect bank risk profiles, but the consequences may differ for short-term risk versus long-term or structural bank risk. We empirically investigated the association between the ECB’s monetary policy stance and market-perceived short-term and long-term bank risk, using the term structure of default risk captured by bank CDS spreads. The results demonstrated that, during the period 2009–2020, ECB expansionary monetary policy diminished bank default risk in the short term. However, we did not observe a similar decline in long-term bank default risk, since we documented that monetary stimulus is associated with a steepening of the bank default risk curve. The reduction of bank default risk was most pronounced during the sovereign debt crisis and for periphery Euro Area banks. From 2018 onwards, monetary policy accommodation is associated with increased bank default risk, both short-term and structurally, which is consistent with the risk-taking hypothesis under which banks engage in excessive risk-taking behavior in their loan and securities portfolios to compensate profitability pressure caused by persistently low rates. The increase in perceived default risk is especially visible for banks with a high reliance on deposit funding.

Fixed rate versus adjustable rate mortgages: Evidence from euro area banks

Why do residential mortgages carry a fixed or an adjustable interest rate? To answer this question we study unique data from 103 banks belonging to 73 different banking groups across twelve countries in the euro area. To explain the large cross-country and time variations observed, we distinguish between household conditions that determine the local demand for credit and the characteristics of banks that supply credit. As bank funding mostly occurs at the group level, we disentangle these two sets of factors by comparing the outcome observed for the same banking group across the different countries. Local household conditions dominate. In particular we find that the share of new loans with a fixed rate is larger when: (1) the historical volatility of inflation is lower, (2) the correlation between unemployment and the short-term interest rate is higher, (3) households’ financial literacy is lower, and (4) the use of local mortgages to back covered bonds and of mortgage-backed securities is more widespread.

ROBOUT: a conditional outlier detection methodology for high-dimensional data

This paper presents a methodology, called ROBOUT, to identify outliers conditional on a high-dimensional noisy information set. In particular, ROBOUT is able to identify observations with outlying conditional mean or variance when the dataset contains multivariate outliers in or besides the predictors, multi-collinearity, and a large variable dimension compared to the sample size. ROBOUT entails a pre-processing step, a preliminary robust imputation procedure that prevents anomalous instances from corrupting predictor recovery, a selection stage of the statistically relevant predictors (through cross-validated LASSO-penalized Huber loss regression), the estimation of a robust regression model based on the selected predictors (via MM regression), and a criterion to identify conditional outliers. We conduct a comprehensive simulation study in which the proposed algorithm is tested under a wide range of perturbation scenarios. The combination formed by LASSO-penalized Huber loss and MM regression turns out to be the best in terms of conditional outlier detection under the above described perturbed conditions, also compared to existing integrated methodologies like Sparse Least Trimmed Squares and Robust Least Angle Regression. Furthermore, the proposed methodology is applied to a granular supervisory banking dataset collected by the European Central Bank, in order to model the total assets of euro area banks.

Assessing the Impact of Banks’ High-Tech Investments on Efficiency: What Is the Actual Relationship Direction?

This paper analyses whether there is any relationship between the efficiency level achieved by Euro Area banking groups and their attitude toward high-tech investments proxied by high-tech patents. We measure banking efficiency via Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The period considered is the decade between 2012 and 2021. The results obtained show that there is a generally negative relationship between the two topics under investigation. The evidence obtained justifies the importance of an appropriate level of attention by regulators since increasing levels of technological innovation pursued through significant growth in intangible assets, could negatively affect the overall financial system efficiency.

Crisis sentiment and banks’ stock price crash risk: A missing piece of the puzzle?

This study empirically examines whether the stock price crash risk of euro area banks is affected by crisis sentiment during the period 2004–2020. We introduce a diverse set of crisis sentiment aspects, including communication and investors’ focus of attention to market wide sentiment. We employ quarter-bank level data and various measures for stock price crash risk and crisis sentiment, including text and Google-search based to market-based proxies. Our results reveal a positive and significant relationship between crisis sentiment and stock price crash risk, implying that higher crisis sentiment leads to a higher future stock price crash risk for the euro area banks. These findings highlight the importance of crisis sentiment as the “transmission mechanism” of stock price crash risk and have important policy implications for central bankers and regulators.