Eurasian Snow Cover Research Articles

The cooperative effects of November Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow cover on the Eurasian surface air temperature in January–February

AbstractDue to their significant influence on large‐scale atmospheric circulation and climate anomalies, the variability of Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow cover during late autumn and their combined effects have garnered increasing attention. This study aims to investigate the physical mechanism underlying the covariation among the Barents‐Kara Seas (BKS) sea ice concentration (SIC), Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE) and the ensuing winter Eurasian surface air temperature (SAT). The statistics results of singular value decomposition suggest a significant linkage between the decreased BKS SIC, zonal “negative–positive” dipole SCE anomalies over Eurasia in November and cold Eurasian SAT in January–February (JF). Observational diagnosis analyses about the meridional moisture, heat transport and surface heat flux demonstrate that subpolar Eurasian anticyclonic circulation plays a crucial role in connecting the predominant modes of SIC and SCE. Furthermore, the BKS SIC and Eurasian SCE anomalies can jointly excite upward‐propagating planetary waves into the stratosphere, while simultaneously reducing the subpolar meridional temperature gradient. This results in westerly wind deceleration and favours the continuous planetary wave propagation. Consequently, the stratospheric polar vortex is significantly weakened, along with negative Northern Annular Mode anomalies propagating downward from the stratosphere to troposphere. Negative‐phase Arctic Oscillation anomalies correspondingly develop during JF, resulting in widespread cold anomalies over the Eurasian continent. These results are further confirmed by numerical sensitivity experiments from the Community Atmosphere Model forced by the above mentioned SIC and SCE anomalies. The empirical hindcast model analyses further suggest that the prediction skill of JF Eurasian SAT is enhanced when both the November BKS SIC and Eurasian SCE signals are considered.

Weakened Subtropical Westerlies and Their Deflection by the Tibetan Plateau Contribute to Drying Southeastern China in Early Spring

AbstractAn obvious long‐term drying trend in recent early springs (February–March–April) is observed over southeastern China (SEC). Here, we attribute this drying to the weakened subtropical westerlies and deflected by the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Climatologically, the low‐level southwesterlies at the southeastern margin of the TP, a branch of the upstream subtropical westerly jet deflected by the TP terrain, bring water vapor to SEC and the southerlies move upward over SEC mainly through isentropic gliding mechanism, inducing persistent precipitation in early spring. However, the subtropical westerlies weakened significantly in recent decades due potentially to the decreased Eurasian snow cover. Consequently, an easterly trend appears along the southern margin of the TP with anomalous northeasterlies over SEC. These northeasterlies suppress both moisture supply and upward motions over SEC, and reduce regional early spring precipitation. Our results highlight the interaction between the TP terrain and the weakened subtropical westerlies that leads to the drying SEC.

Interdecadal variability of winter and spring Eurasian snow depth and its impact on Eastern China precipitation

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlation analyses were employed to investigate the winter and spring snow depth in Eurasia and its relationship with Eastern China precipitation based on the observed and reanalyzed data from 1980 to 2016. The results show that the winter and spring snow cover in Eurasia not only highlights a decreasing trend due to global warming (the first EOF mode, its variance accounted for 24.4% and 22.6% of the total variance) but also exhibits notable interdecadal variation (the second EOF mode, its variance accounted for 10.2% and 11.5% of the total variance). The second EOF mode of winter snow depth in Eurasia is characterized by a west-east dipole pattern. It was observed that the spatial correlation pattern between the EOF2 of Eurasian snow depth and summer precipitation in China closely resembles the meridional quadrupole structure of the third EOF mode of summer precipitation in China. This pattern is characterized by excessive rainfall in Northeast China and the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and less rainfall over the Yellow River basin and southern China. The EOF mode of spring snow depth not only reflects the declining trend but also regulates precipitation in Eastern China. The possible mechanisms by which snow depth causes changes in soil moisture and subsequently affects atmospheric circulation are then explored from the perspective of the hydrological effects of snow cover. Decreased (Increased) snow depth in Eurasia during the winter and spring directly leads to diminished (increased) soil moisture while increasing (decreasing) net radiation and sensible heat flux at the surface. The meridional distribution of surface temperature also exhibits a dipole pattern, leading to enhanced subtropical westerly jet in the upper troposphere. The Eurasian snow cover anomalies pattern triggered an anomalous mid-latitude Eurasian wave train, which strengthened significantly in the Western Siberian Plain. It then splits into two branches, one continuing to propagate eastward at high latitudes and the other shifting towards East Asia, thereby impacting precipitation in Eastern China. This work indicates that the second EOF mode of Eurasian snow cover can impact the precipitation variability in Eastern China during the same period and in summer on an interdecadal scale.

Increased Extreme Precipitation in May over Southwestern Xinjiang in Relation to Eurasian Snow Cover in Recent Years

Abstract In this study, the interdecadal variations of extreme precipitation in May over southwestern Xinjiang (SWX) and related mechanisms were investigated. The extreme precipitation in May over SWX exhibited a decadal shift in the 1990s (negative phase during 1970–86 and positive phase during 2003–18). The decadal shift corresponded to strengthened moist airflow from the Indian Ocean and an anomalous cyclone over SWX during 2003–18. It is found that the interdecadal change of the wave trains in Eurasia might account for the differences in atmospheric circulation between the above two periods. Further analyses reveal that spring snow cover over Eurasia is closely linked to extreme precipitation over SWX during 2003–18. Increased snow cover in western Europe (WE) from February to March is accompanied by more snowmelt. This resulted in less local snow cover and lower albedo, leading to warm temperatures over WE in May. The changes in temperatures increase the local 1000–500-hPa thickness over WE. These factors provide favorable conditions for the enhancement of the Eurasian wave trains, which significantly influence extreme precipitation over SWX. On the other hand, corresponding to decreased albedo caused by the reduction of snow cover in northern Eurasia (NE) in May, anomalous surface warming occurs over NE. The anomalous warming results in positive geopotential height anomalies that intensify the meridional geopotential height gradient over Eurasia and cause an acceleration of the westerly jet in May. Anomalous upper-level divergence in SWX induced by the enhanced westerly jet provides a favorable dynamical condition for increased extreme precipitation.

Strengthened East Asian Winter Monsoon Regulated by Insolation and Arctic Sea Ice Since the Middle Holocene

AbstractThe East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is a crucial climate system in Asia, with significant social and economic impacts. Orbital‐scale variability of the EAWM during the Holocene and its associated mechanisms, however, are still not fully understood. Based on a high‐resolution transient simulation by a coupled climate model, we present here a continuous climate evolution of the EAWM in response to orbital forcing. Our simulated springtime EAWM variations, consistent with grain size records of loess, exhibit an obvious strengthening trend since the mid‐Holocene. In winter, a similar increasing trend is also simulated although not statistically significant. Our results suggest that the Holocene EAWM is basically controlled by meridional temperature gradients between high and low latitudes in both seasons. Other than northern insolation forcing, the feedbacks from Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow cover also modulate the meridional temperature gradients, highlighting their important roles in driving EAWM evolution during the Holocene.

Extreme heat waves in June 2021 over Europe regulated by shrinking Eurasian snow cover in mid–high latitudes

Europe has experienced many extreme heat waves over the past few decades. In this study, the physical processes underlying these long-lasting and wide-ranging heat wave events are investigated based on a case study in Europe in June 2021. Heat waves are associated with barotropic anticyclonic anomalies accompanied by positive geopotential height anomalies locally. These anomalies persist under the conditions of increased meridional air temperature gradients of the mid–upper troposphere in the high latitudes of Eurasia and the formation of the Arctic front jet. The shrinking high-latitude snow cover in April–May favors higher surface temperatures and larger meridional temperature gradients in June in the mid–upper troposphere due to the soil moisture–evaporation–temperature positive feedback process. The summer Arctic front jet is then strengthened, and the mid-latitude westerly winds are weakened. This atmospheric circulation background favors waveguide formation and wave resonance that produces high-amplitude atmospheric waves and the stagnation of ridges in the mid-latitudes. Numerical experiments using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 verify the proposed physical mechanisms, with the climatic responses in sensitivity experiments to anomalous snowfall rates closely resembling the observational results. Therefore, in June 2021, under the identified atmospheric circulation background and the perturbation of the upstream positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the large-scale barotropic high pressure and barotropic anticyclonic circulation in the study region tended to be stable and persistent, which is favorable for the production of long-lasting and wide-ranging heat wave events.

Forcing and impact of the Northern Hemisphere continental snow cover in 1979–2014

Abstract. The main drivers of the continental Northern Hemisphere snow cover are investigated in the 1979–2014 period. Four observational datasets are used as are two large multi-model ensembles of atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC). A first ensemble uses observed interannually varying SST and SIC conditions for 1979–2014, while a second ensemble is identical except for SIC with a repeated climatological cycle used. SST and external forcing typically explain 10 % to 25 % of the snow cover variance in model simulations, with a dominant forcing from the tropical and North Pacific SST during this period. In terms of the climate influence of the snow cover anomalies, both observations and models show no robust links between the November and April snow cover variability and the atmospheric circulation 1 month later. On the other hand, the first mode of Eurasian snow cover variability in January, with more extended snow over western Eurasia, is found to precede an atmospheric circulation pattern by 1 month, similar to a negative Arctic oscillation (AO). A decomposition of the variability in the model simulations shows that this relationship is mainly due to internal climate variability. Detailed outputs from one of the models indicate that the western Eurasia snow cover anomalies are preceded by a negative AO phase accompanied by a Ural blocking pattern and a stratospheric polar vortex weakening. The link between the AO and the snow cover variability is strongly related to the concomitant role of the stratospheric polar vortex, with the Eurasian snow cover acting as a positive feedback for the AO variability in winter. No robust influence of the SIC variability is found, as the sea ice loss in these simulations only drives an insignificant fraction of the snow cover anomalies, with few agreements among models.

Interannual Variability of the Wintertime Asian–Bering–North American Teleconnection Linked to Eurasian Snow Cover and Maritime Continent Sea Surface Temperature

Abstract Recent studies propose that the Asian–Bering–North American (ABNA) teleconnection is a distinct atmospheric pattern that is related to Eurasian and North American winter climate besides the Pacific–North America (PNA) pattern, while its origin remains elusive. This study investigates the interannual variability of the ABNA during the past 42 winters (1979–2020) and the associated prior surface boundary forcings. The ABNA explains coherent surface air temperature changes in northern Asia, eastern Siberia–Alaska, and eastern North America, even after removing the impacts of the PNA, the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the North Pacific Oscillation. Surface boundary conditions linked to the ABNA could be traced back to a Eurasian snow cover dipole pattern (ESCDP) and a Maritime Continent sea surface temperature anomaly (MCSST) in November. The ESCDP leads to a displacement of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex via troposphere–stratosphere coupling. The anomalous polar vortex propagates downward in the following winter and generates the tropospheric ABNA pattern. The MCSST induces a diabatic heating anomaly, which is associated with a tropical western Pacific precipitation anomaly (TWPP) in winter. The TWPP excites a poleward Rossby wave train that propagates across the North Pacific and directly strengthens the ABNA. The above physical processes can be well reproduced by a linear baroclinic model (LBM). Based on the ESCDP and MCSST predictors, an empirical model is established and shows a promising prediction skill of the ABNA during the hindcast period. This can provide a useful strategy for seasonal prediction of winter climate in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Significance Statement Extreme cold events have influenced both Asian and North American continents during the past decades, causing huge socioeconomic impacts. The Asian–Bering–North American teleconnection is found to be responsible for coherent changes of winter climate in these two continents besides the Pacific–North America pattern. Our results indicate that Eurasian snow cover and the Maritime Continent sea surface temperature are important sources of predictability for the Asian–Bering–North American teleconnection, and can be used to predict coherent and cross-continent variations of winter surface air temperature. We propose that the Asian–Bering–North American teleconnection and these two predictors should be included in operational monitoring and prediction systems, helping to improve the prediction skill of winter climate in the Northern Hemisphere continents.

Impact of the Shrinkage of Arctic Sea Ice on Eurasian Snow Cover Changes in 1979–2021

Impact of the Shrinkage of Arctic Sea Ice on Eurasian Snow Cover Changes in 1979–2021

Revealing the Formation of the Dipole Mode of Eurasian Snow Cover Variability During Late Autumn

AbstractA zonal dipole pattern of the interannual variability of Eurasian snow cover during late autumn has attracted growing interest due to its extensive influences on large‐scale atmospheric circulations and climate anomalies, but it remains unknown what influences the formation of this pattern. This study revealed the potential drivers and the related physical processes of the dipole mode of the snow cover variability during 1979–2018. Results showed that the atmospheric circulation anomalies play a crucial role in forming the dipole mode, which could be further attributed to the influences of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns and the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration. Specifically, the anomalous circulations related to the teleconnections of the Eastern Atlantic pattern, East Atlantic–Western Russia pattern, and Scandinavian pattern could lead to the anomalies of air temperature and snowfall that directly shape the variability of snow cover. In addition, a dipole structure of the SST anomalies over the North Atlantic exerts an important effect on the snow cover variability through exciting an eastward propagating Rossby wave train prevailing over Eurasia. Moreover, the snow cover variability is closely linked to the sea ice variations over the Barents Sea that can regulate the anomalous circulations over Eurasia by altering the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic conditions. These influencing factors jointly account for about 66% of variances in the dipole mode of snow cover variability, suggesting that our findings can substantially improve the understanding of the Eurasian snow cover variations.

Trend and variability in the long‐term relationship between Eurasian snow cover and Indian summer monsoon rainfall

AbstractThe predictability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) at any given time period depends on the strength of its relationship with predictable drivers like the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that are known to undergo significant epochal variations. While a similar relationship between the Eurasian snow cover fraction (SCF) and ISMR has also shown epochal variation in recent decades, its stationarity on centennial or longer timescales remains unknown. Here, on the basis of the observed relationship between the dominant modes of ISMR and SCF over a period of 115 years (1901–2015), we unravel two indices of SCF that encapsulate its space–time variability. We find that the SCF indices and ISMR relationship have a statistically significant increasing trend with a weak multidecadal variability superimposed on it, making significant positive correlations between the two highly probable in the coming decades. With SCF driving the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that in turn driving the ISMR, we find that the NAO plays a pivotal role in modulating the SCF–ISMR teleconnection on a multidecadal time scale. Further, the SCF also regulates the ISMR low‐frequency variability through modulation of the tropospheric temperature gradient of the Indian region.

The synergistic effect of the preceding winter Northern Hemisphere annular mode and spring tropical North Atlantic SST on spring extreme cold events in the mid-high latitudes of East Asia

In this paper, the synergistic effect of the preceding winter positive Northern Hemisphere annular mode (pNAM) and spring negative tropical North Atlantic (nTNA) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) on spring extreme cold events in the mid-high latitudes of East Asia (MHEA) is investigated. The results show that the co-occurrence of the two factors is unfavorable for extreme cold events during spring in the MHEA via the snow cover and atmospheric bridges. Over the Atlantic, the spring nTNA SSTA can lead to an atmospheric response that is similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation, which enhances the persistence of the pNAM and in turn amplifies the negative spring Eurasian snow cover extent (EASCE) anomaly caused by the preceding winter pNAM. Meanwhile, the spring EASCE is closely related to the spring MHEA anomalous anticyclone. In addition to storing its signal in the spring EASCE, the spring nTNA SSTA can also lead to the spring MHEA anomalous anticyclone via the eastward Rossby wave train. The evidence shows that the Rossby wave energy can propagate eastward to the MHEA as a result of the enhanced negative spring EASCE anomaly and Rossby wave induced by the spring nTNA SSTA, and the two factors have an obvious synergistic effect on the spring MHEA anomalous anticyclone. This anomalous MHEA anticyclone becomes a barrier that can hinder the intrusion of cold air from the polar region and can increase the thickness of the atmospheric layer. The anomalous sinking motion of the spring MHEA anomalous anticyclone can also lead to an increase in net radiation received at the surface and increase the air temperature through the vertical motion of air. The southerly wind over the west side of the spring MHEA anomalous anticyclone leads to horizontal warm advection. All of the above processes favor an increase in air temperature and dampen extreme cold events, implying the synergistic effect of the preceding winter pNAM and spring nTNA SSTA on spring extreme cold events in the MHEA.

Impacts of Autumn-Winter Eurasian Snow Cover on the Interannual Variation In Northeast Asian Winter Precipitation

Impacts of Autumn-Winter Eurasian Snow Cover on the Interannual Variation In Northeast Asian Winter Precipitation

Influence of preceding North Atlantic Oscillation on the spring precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley

AbstractThe relationship between the spring precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley and the North Atlantic Oscillation in the preceding winter is investigated based on data diagnosis. Through affecting the dynamics and thermodynamics in near‐surface atmosphere over Eurasia, the North Atlantic Oscillation in January can exert significant influence on the Eurasian snow cover to form a dipole pattern of snow anomalies. The dipole pattern of snow anomalies stimulates the Rossby wave train in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in the following spring. Two activity centres associated with the wave train, one in the middle latitudes of Northwest Pacific with an anomalous anticyclone circulation and another in Mongolia with an anomalous cyclone circulation, bring the water vapour from the south and converge over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, resulting in the excessive precipitation over there. The results indicate that the North Atlantic Oscillation in January can act as a precursor signal for predicting the spring rainfall anomalies in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

The Influence of Autumn Eurasian Snow Cover on the Atmospheric Dynamics Anomalies During the Next Winter in INMCM5 Model Data

The influence of autumn Eurasian snow cover on the atmospheric dynamics anomalies during the following winter is studied based on the INM RAS climate model data. The North Atlantic Oscillation is the leading pattern that causes the weather and climate variability in the Northern hemisphere. We evaluate the up-to-date model version (INMCM5) ability of the autumn Eurasian snow – winter NAO teleconnection simulation on different timescales. Maximum covariance analysis (MCA) is used to find winter atmospheric signals that are significantly correlated with autumn snow cover anomalies. Using MCA we conclude that Autumn Eurasian snow – winter NAO teleconnection is present in INMCM5 experiments on pre-industrial and present-day climate simulation. However, this method fails to show this phenomenon in experiments on a seasonal timescale. We conduct additional experiments on a seasonal timescale to assess the sensitivity of North Atlantic Oscillation index predictability to initial snow cover perturbations. These experiments demonstrate the absence of direct autumn Eurasian snow impact on the NAO index.

Diverse Inter-Annual Variations of Winter Siberian High and Link With Eurasian Snow in Observation and BCC-CSM2-MR Coupled Model Simulation

An observational study illustrates that three distinct modes of winter Siberian high variability exist in observations at the inter-annual time scale. In this paper, we compare the connection between these diverse Siberian high variation modes with pre-autumn and simultaneous Eurasian snow cover in an observation and BCC-CSM2-MR coupled climate model run under pre-industrial conditions from the CMIP6 project. Our analyses indicate that the inter-annual variation of observed Siberian high modes do have a connection with pre-autumn and simultaneous Eurasian snow cover anomalies, but the BCC-CSM2-MR coupled climate model does not capture the observed diverse Eurasian snow–Siberian high relationships well. The BCC-CSM2-MR coupled climate model can partly reproduce the observed Siberian high variation modes, but fail to capture the spatial distribution and statistics of boreal fall and winter Eurasian snowpack, which is a key facet of simulated diverse Siberian high variability irrespective of the influence of Eurasian snow cover.

Abnormal Change in Spring Snowmelt Over Eurasia and Its Linkage to the East Asian Summer Monsoon: The Hydrological Effect of Snow Cover

In this study, the relationship between Eurasian spring snowmelt and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and its related mechanisms are investigated using observational and reanalysis data. Our analyses reveal that the interannual change of spring snowmelt over Eurasia is strongly linked to the EASM circulation variation and its corresponding summer precipitation in China. It is noteworthy that soil moisture anomaly caused by the snow hydrological effect (i.e., snowmelt) plays a bridging role in connecting the Eurasian snow cover and the EASM. The results show that increased spring snowmelt over Siberia induces anomalously higher soil moisture from spring to the following summer, thus continuously lowering the local temperature. Such a cooling effect leads to a weakened meridional temperature gradient and a decreased baroclinicity between north Eurasia and the Arctic Ocean. Consequently, the variation in atmospheric baroclinicity induced by the nonuniform heating of land surface exerts a significant impact on the synoptic eddy. The eddy forcing gives a positive feedback on intensification of the wave train over north Eurasia. Finally, the atmospheric circulation responses weaken the EASM and influence summer precipitation over China, producing excessive precipitation over most regions of South China and deficient rainfall over Northeast and North China. Our study emphasizes the hydrological effect of the sub-seasonal change of spring snow cover over Siberia, which has a significant linkage to the variation of the EASM intensity. The resultant changes in the EASM lead to an abnormal meridional dipole pattern of summer precipitation over China. These findings will contribute to the seasonal prediction of monsoon precipitation.

Roles of climate variability on the rapid increases of early winter haze pollution in North China after 2010

Abstract. North China experiences severe haze pollution in early winter, resulting in many premature deaths and considerable economic losses. The number of haze days in early winter (December and January) in North China (HDNC) increased rapidly after 2010 but declined slowly before 2010, reflecting a trend reversal. Global warming and emissions were two fundamental drivers of the long-term increasing trend of haze, but no studies have focused on this trend reversal. The autumn sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific and Atlantic, Eurasian snow cover and central Siberian soil moisture, which exhibited completely opposite trends before and after 2010, might have close relationships with identical trends of meteorological conditions related to haze pollution in North China. Numerical experiments with a fixed emission level confirmed the physical relationships between the climate drivers and HDNC during both decreasing and increasing periods. These external drivers induced a larger decreasing trend of HDNC than the observations, and combined with the persistently increasing trend of anthropogenic emissions, resulted in a realistic, slowly decreasing trend. However, after 2010, the increasing trends driven by these climate divers and human emissions jointly led to a rapid increase in HDNC.

Predictable Patterns of Wintertime Surface Air Temperature in Northern Hemisphere and Their Predictability Sources in the SEAS5

AbstractBased on 36-yr hindcasts from the fifth-generation seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (SEAS5), the most predictable patterns of the wintertime 2-m air temperature (T2m) in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere are extracted via the maximum signal-to-noise (MSN) empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, and their associated predictability sources are identified. The MSN EOF1 captures the warming trend that amplifies over the Arctic but misses the associated warm Arctic–cold continent pattern. The MSN EOF2 delineates a wavelike T2m pattern over the Pacific–North America region, which is rooted in the tropical forcing of the eastern Pacific-type El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The MSN EOF3 shows a wavelike T2m pattern over the Pacific–North America region, which has an approximately 90° phase difference from that associated with MSN EOF2, and a loading center over midlatitude Eurasia. Its sources of predictability include the central Pacific-type ENSO and Eurasian snow cover. The MSN EOF4 reflects T2m variability surrounding the Tibetan Plateau, which is plausibly linked to the remote forcing of the Arctic sea ice. The information on the leading predictable patterns and their sources of predictability is further used to develop a calibration scheme to improve the prediction skill of T2m. The calibrated prediction skill in terms of the anomaly correlation coefficient improves significantly over midlatitude Eurasia in a leave-one-out cross-validation, implying a possible way to improve the wintertime T2m prediction in the SEAS5.

The Climatological Context of Trends in the Onset of Northern Hemisphere Seasonal Snow Cover, 1972–2017

AbstractSeveral studies based on the longest remotely sensed record of Northern Hemisphere seasonal snow cover have indicated that its extent has increased over large areas of Eurasia and North America during the transition from summer to winter. Given current understanding of widespread warming trends, this finding is somewhat surprising. It has been suggested that these increases are artifacts of technological improvements in the data set's production. Alternatively, if such trends do reflect actual changes in the timing and location of snow onset, it follows that associations should exist with altered spatiotemporal patterns of atmospheric activity likely to influence the probability of snowfall. This study places significant onset trends during September to December between 1972 and 2017 within the context of means and trends of a range of relevant metrics of middle‐to‐lower tropospheric activity between 1972 and 2014, summarized from monthly reanalysis data. The results suggest that clear explanatory links exist between earlier (and later) onset, and patterns of trends in 500 hPa geopotential heights and sea level pressure, airflows at 500 and 850 hPa, atmospheric humidity, and near‐surface temperature. These findings suggest that most incidences of progressively earlier Eurasian snow cover result from northward advection of moisture by stronger southerly winds, driven by altered zonal gradients in geopotential height north of the Himalayan ranges. Over North America, moisture has been supplied primarily from maritime sources along zonal airflows induced by meridional gradients.