Euphrates And Tigris Research Articles

The transboundary effects of climate change and global adaptation: the case of the Euphrates–Tigris water basin in Turkey and Iraq

The transboundary effects of climate change and global adaptation: the case of the Euphrates–Tigris water basin in Turkey and Iraq

Hydroeconomic insights for transboundary water challenges and potential collaboration in the Tigris-Euphrates river basin

Abstract For countries sharing transboundary water resources, measuring changes in water availability and ensuing economic outcomes is challenging due to downstream impacts and interconnected agricultural markets. Using a coupled modeling approach that combines a detailed multi-sector model of international trade with a gridded hydrological model, this paper quantifies the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on water scarcity and its economy-wide consequences for the riparian countries in the Tigris-Euprates (TE) river basin and evaluates scenarios of collaboration in basin water management as an adaptation strategy. By mid-century climate change will significantly increase water scarcity in the basin: up to 30% in Iran, 27% in Türkiye, 17% in Iraq, and 14% in Syria. Depending on the climate change scenario, average annual GDP losses from water scarcity and changes in crop yields range from 12 to 84 billion USD for these economies. However, collaboration among the TE river basin riparian countries in water allocation and use could mitigate the adverse economic effects and, relative to the status quo, generate direct GDP gain in the 42–58 billion USD range for these countries and indirect gains for other countries in the Middle East region. The results suggest that collaboration in water management in the TE river basin is an effective option to tackle emerging challenges such as the impact of climate change on water availability.

Turkey’s Hydropower Potential in the Near Future and the Possible Impacts of Climate Change—A Case Study of the Euphrates–Tigris Basin

Hydropower is becoming an important renewable energy source in Turkey, but the ever-changing atmospheric and climatic conditions of Turkey make it very difficult to be projected efficiently. Thus, an efficient estimation technique is crucial for it to be adopted as a reliable energy source in the future. This study evaluates Turkey’s hydropower potential in the Euphrates–Tigris Basin under changing climatic conditions. We adapted an empirical equation to model reservoir outflows, considering the site-specific characteristics of 14 major dams. Initial results from employing a model with a constant empirical coefficient, α, yielded moderate predictive accuracy, with R2 values ranging from 0.289 to 0.612. A polynomial regression identified optimal α values tailored to each dam’s surface area, significantly improving model performance. The adjusted α reduced predictive bias and increased R2 values, enhancing forecast reliability. Seasonal analysis revealed distinct hydropower trends: Ataturk Dam showed a notable decrease of 5.5% in hydropower generation up to 2050, while Birecik and Keban Dams exhibited increases of 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. By putting these discoveries into practice, water resource management may become more robust and sustainable, which is essential for meeting Turkey’s rising energy needs and preparing for future climatic challenges. This study contributes valuable insights for optimizing reservoir operations, ensuring long-term hydropower sustainability, and enhancing the resilience of water resource management systems globally.

Exploring the future hydropower production of a run-of-river type plant in the source region of the Tigris Basin (Türkiye) under CMIP6 scenarios

This assessment presents a framework for exploring the changing climate impacts on the energy production capacity of a run-of-river type plant, using the Basoren Weir and Hydropower Plant (HPP) as a case study. The Basoren Project is planned considering historical streamflow records in the source region of the Euphrates-Tigris River Basin (ETRB), which is a prominent hotspot warming at nearly double the global average rate. The quantification is built on precipitation and maximum/minimum temperature datasets from 24 Global Climate Models (GCMs) belonging to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under the moderate- and high-end Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, as well as the CMIP6 historical experiment (HEXP) scenario. The distribution mapping method is employed to adjust the raw GCM datasets for systematic biases. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is preferred in producing daily runoff time series for the bias-adjusted simulations of each GCM over the historical (1988-2009) and three future (2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099) periods. The ramifications of the changing climate on the Basoren HPP's energy production capacity are assessed based on the medians of the operational results reached for each GCM under the future societal development scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, considering the medians achieved under the HEXP scenario as the reference case. The results indicate potential reductions in the mean yearly energy production of the Basoren HPP by 7.9%, 5.5%, and 5.3% under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and by 5.8%, 8.0%, and 17.3% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for the periods 2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099, respectively. While declining spillway releases are expected to partly offset the impact of decreasing streamflow rates on energy production, the shift from a snow-dominated to a rain-dominated hydrologic regime necessitates re-optimizing the power capacities of the ETRB plants to maintain effective use of hydropower potential.

Sustainable Land Management for Mitigating Soil Erosion at the Catchment Scale

This study addresses this challenge by focusing on the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to combat excessive soil erosion rates within the Kayacık Dam Basin, located in the semi-arid region of the Tigris-Euphrates Basin in Türkiye. The primary objective is to maintain an average annual soil loss of no more than 10 tons per hectare. To achieve this, the RUSLE model is employed to evaluate sustainable land management (SLM) strategies. These strategies encompass agronomic, vegetative, and structural measures, all of which are intricately linked to RUSLE's C and P factors. Spatial analysis reveals that severe erosion (10-20 t ha-1 y-1) is predominantly concentrated in agricultural areas, spanning 2536.37 hectares. In contrast, very severe erosion (>20 t ha-1 y-1) affects 834.13 hectares of grassland. Statistical analyses underscore the significant contributions of various model factors to predicted soil losses (A). LS, C, K, and R factors account for 80.24%, 44.68%, 0.97%, and 0.27% of the effect, respectively. Remarkably, topography exerts the most substantial influence on agriculture, pasture, and forest/other land uses, contributing 84.46%, 57.29%, and 39.27% to the variation, respectively. These findings highlight the pivotal role of effective agronomic and vegetative practices in ecosystems management, especially within steep-slope landscapes encompassing agriculture, grassland, and forest. Furthermore, the semi-arid regions under investigation contend with the intricate interplay of heightened drought risk and the ramifications of intensive irrigated agriculture on soil erosion. This complex dynamic presents distinct challenges for implementing SLM strategies in the face of evolving climatic conditions and underscores the need for climate-resilient solutions.

Sensitivity of development goals to water scarcity of Iraq and transboundary regions

Iraq and its transboundary regions have significant challenges from water scarcity in combination with other social and environmental factors. There are short- and long-term implications for vulnerable demographics, such as youth. With Iraq's dependence on upstream water management, there is a need to address several critical factors of transboundary watersheds such as the Haditha, Mosul, Dokan, and Euphrates-Tigris basin. This paper develops the use of particular social, hydrological, and other environmental factors in a risk register of basins and vulnerable populations, where societal priorities vary across scenarios of hydrology and water. Social data (i.e., gridded youth population data) and hydrological observations (i.e., precipitation, temperature, root zone soil moisture, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)) are obtained from publicly available satellite-based Earth observations and global models. Risk is defined and quantified as the disruption of basin order and spatial plots are provided to improve understanding of the spatial distribution of water scarcity challenges in the region with regard to vulnerable populations. The results feature identification of the most and least disruptive scenarios including: 1) population density is lowest in basins exposed to the highest air temperatures, 2) an urban-to-rural migration pattern (such as prompted by a public health crisis) would significantly disrupt basin order, and 3) populations with greatest exposure to extreme hydrological conditions of water scarcity are found in the southern basins of Iraq in or near the Al-Muthanna governorate. The impacts of this work are to steer future investments that mitigate risk of disrupted system orders and to increase system resilience of vulnerable populations to water scarcity.

Spatiotemporal analysis of sand and dust emission point sources detected from satellite imagery in Syria, Jordan, and Iraq

This study utilized MODIS true color satellite imagery to analyse blowing sand and dust events dynamics in the Middle East from 2010 to 2021, focusing on Syria, Iraq, and Jordan. A total of 4923 dust point sources were detected, with a significant concentration (~90 %) located within the Tigris-Euphrates Basin (Nearest Neighbor Ratio = 0.41, р < 0.001). Land cover analysis revealed that bare land, comprising most of the study area, was the predominant source of dust emissions. Wetlands, though only constituting about 1 % of the area, showed the highest frequency of dust sources per unit area, highlighting their role as critical dust emission hotspots. The study emphasizes the impact of drought and anthropogenic factors, such as poor land management, on blowing dust intensity. It suggests the necessity of strategic land management practices, including re-vegetation of arid areas, reducing soil exposure, and implementing wind erosion control measures. To effectively address the transboundary nature of dust emissions, the findings underscore the importance of fostering regional cooperation through mechanisms such as shared environmental monitoring and data exchange platforms, joint management of cross-border natural resources, and collaborative policy making.

Impact of atmospheric rivers on the winter snowpack in the headwaters of Euphrates-Tigris basin

Understanding the hydrometeorological impacts of atmospheric rivers (ARs) on mountain snowpack is crucial for water resources management in the snow-fed river basins such as the Euphrates-Tigris (ET). In this study, we investigate the contribution of wintertime (December-January–February) ARs to precipitation and snowpack in the headwater regions of the ET Basin for the period of 1979–2019 using a state-of-the-art AR catalog and ERA5 reanalysis data. The results show that AR days in the headwaters region could be warmer by up to 3 °C and wetter by over 5 mm day−1 compared to non-AR days. The contribution of ARs to the total winter precipitation varies from year to year, with a maximum contribution of over 80% in 2010 and an average contribution of 60% over the 40-year period. While snow accumulation on AR days shows spatial variability, the average snow contribution is 27% of the seasonal average, ranging from 12 to 57% for different years. The south-facing parts of the mountain range experience significant snowmelt, with contributions ranging from 15 to 80% for different years. The high total precipitation (60%) and low snowpack (27%) contribution can be attributed to the semi-arid characteristics of the region and the occurrence of rain-on-snow events, where rain falling on existing snow rapidly melts the snowpack. The findings have implications for water resource management and call for continued research to improve our knowledge of ARs and their interactions with the complex terrain of the ET Basin.

Water for Food in the Tigris–Euphrates River System

Water scarcity is an important threat to food security in the Tigris–Euphrates river system. Water scarcity is a huge worldwide problem that results from the rapid increase in water demand, which exceeds the amount of available water. The most significant problems currently affecting countries are food insecurity water scarcity. The Tigris–Euphrates river system countries suffer from different political issues, such as the Syrian war and internal civil conflicts in Iraq. In addition, this area consists of only three countries: Iraq, Syria, and Turkey, but it affects the entire Middle East. Turkey has established many irrigation projects compared to Iraq, which still suffers from the previous American invasion. Therefore, this study examines the Tigris–Euphrates river system (using two countries) to examine the relationship between water scarcity and food security from 1992 to 2020. This study will be conducted using a fixed and random regression approach over 18 years. The results show a negative relationship between water scarcity and food security in the short run, at a 10% significance level, and a long-term positive relationship of 1%. Thus, the use of research and development and the encouragement of investments will help policymakers to develop a nexus between water scarcity and food security.

Evaluating the effects of land use/land cover change on the emergence of hazardous dust sources in the Tigris-Euphrates Basin

Evaluating the effects of land use/land cover change on the emergence of hazardous dust sources in the Tigris-Euphrates Basin

Drought trend and variability based wavelet transform in Euphrates-Tigris Basin, Türkiye

This paper presents an analysis of trends in drought variables at 29 stations across the Euphrates-Tigris Basin over the period 1965–2022. Drought variables were calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month scales. The drought values have been decomposed for these time scales through application of Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT). The components are defined as short, medium and long periodicities. DWT-based trend analysis was computed using Mann-Kendall (MK) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) methods. As the time scale and the periodicity of drought increase, a strong increase in drought occurs. It was revealed that drought increased significantly at all time scales in almost all stations, especially in the long periodicity, according to both MK and ITA. The droughts and the serious increasing trend of droughts in this basin constitute a significant threat to water resources.

Ottoman Landscapes: Over Mountains, Plains, and Waterways

ABSTRACT Two recent works in Ottoman history, Faisal Husain’s Rivers of the Sultan and Chris Gratien’s The Unsettled Plain have brought environmental themes to the forefront of the field. These works demonstrate the importance of attending to seemingly peripheral areas like the highlands of southern Anatolia and the Tigris-Euphrates basin in Iraq, where in fact central issues of Ottoman imperialism are most visible. In these works, we find the management of diverse ecological zones as a critical feature of how the Ottoman state functioned. By centering the experiences of people, animals, plants, and disease across highlands, waterways, farms, pastures, and marshes, Husain and Gratien have prepared the way for a more inclusive form of historical writing in Ottoman studies.

Impact of Urbanization on Groundwater Quality of Water Bodies in Cities: Public Perceptions of the Reservoir in the TigrisEuphrates Basin in Iraq

Impact of Urbanization on Groundwater Quality of Water Bodies in Cities: Public Perceptions of the Reservoir in the TigrisEuphrates Basin in Iraq

Establishing regional intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships by using the L-moment approach and genetically based techniques for the Euphrates-Tigris basin

Establishing regional intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships by using the L-moment approach and genetically based techniques for the Euphrates-Tigris basin

Spatiotemporal variability of dust storm source susceptibility during wet and dry periods: The Tigris-Euphrates River Basin

This study develops a framework for spatiotemporal modeling of dust storm source susceptibility in a critical case study, the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin, as a significant source of dust storms in the Middle East. The study period was divided into four periods, 2000–2004 (hydrological dry year), 2005–2007 (hydrological wet year), 2008–2012 (hydrological dry year), and 2013–2021 (hydrological wet year) representing hydrological conditions in the study area. Initially, visual interpretations of true color composites of the MODIS satellite images were conducted to spot dust storm sources in the studied periods. Topographical, hydrological, soil texture, and vegetation health datasets were prepared to model dust storm source susceptibility in each period. The random forest algorithm was implemented on the four study periods’ datasets. For each period, 70% of dust and non-dust storm sources and conditioning factors were used for training the models. The models were then validated using the validation datasets (remaining 30%), and the importance of the variables was determined for each study period. In the 2008–2012 period, experiencing an extensive drought in the region, a higher number of dust storm sources were detected, and 383 locations (pixels) in the area were considered highly susceptible to dust storm sources. In all study periods, as well as in the ensemble model (integrating the results of four study periods into one overall model), high susceptibility to dust storms was detected in areas where lakes and marshlands had dried up due to climate factors, inappropriate water management strategies, and land use policies. The results also depicted that elevation, wind speed, precipitation, vegetation coverage, slope degree, distance from rivers, and soil texture had high impacts on the susceptibility of land to be a dust storm source.

Long-term meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics on the lower Tigris-Euphrates basin, Türkiye: relation, impact and trend

Long-term meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics on the lower Tigris-Euphrates basin, Türkiye: relation, impact and trend

Quantifying climate change impacts on hydropower production under CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections using SWAT model

ABSTRACT This study assesses the effects of climate change on hydropower production in the most threatened highlands region of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin, with the case of the Dipni Project. This evaluation is based on the precipitation and temperature predictions of the multi-model ensembles produced by analysing the simulations of 24 global circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is utilized to estimate the future inflow rates of the Dipni reservoir under the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios of SSP245 and SSP585. The 25-year reservoir operations conducted in the past and three future periods indicate possible decreases of up to 10.1% and 21.5% in the annual energy production under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The results show the need to take adaptive measures against the projected impacts of climate change to achieve the targeted return for the coming decades.

COMPARISON OF INNOVATIVE TREND ANALYSIS METHODS FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS IN THE KARASU SUB-BASIN

Türkiye, which has a complex climate structure, is shown among the countries that will be most affected by climate change with the effect of global warming. These effects will differ in different regions due to their topographic structure, location, and orographic characteristics. Trend analyzes are used to determine the direction and magnitude of this variability. In this study, trend analysis was carried out by using hydrometeorological data obtained from streamflow and meteorology stations located in the Karasu Sub-Basin located in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Three innovative trend methods, namely the Şen-Innovative Trend Analysis, Onyutha Trend Test, Combination of Wilcoxon Test and Scatter Diagram trend tests, were used together with the classical Mann-Kendall method in the monthly scale analysis of hydrometeorological data of the 1979-2020 period. Both graphical and statistical trend analysis can be done with innovative methods. The results obtained in the study, in which trend analyses were evaluated at the α=0.05 significance level, reveal significant and insignificant decreasing trends in the parameters of mean streamflow, maximum precipitation, total precipitation, mean and minimum relative humidity. Significant and insignificant increasing trends were determined in the maximum, minimum, and mean temperature, maximum relative humidity, and mean wind speed data. The trends obtained in the methods used in general are consistent with each other. The findings of this study could lead to a better knowledge of the region's hydrology and contribute sustainable water management. The trend analysis methods used in the study are thought to be quite helpful in the analysis of hydro-meteorological time series.

Streamflow Estimation through Coupling of Hieararchical Clustering Analysis and Regression Analysis—A Case Study in Euphrates-Tigris Basin

In this study, the resilience of designed water systems in the face of limited streamflow gauging stations and escalating global warming impacts were investigated. By performing a regression analysis, simulated meteorological data with observed streamflow from 1971 to 2020 across 33 stream gauging stations in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin were correlated. Utilizing the Ordinary Least Squares regression method, streamflow for 2020–2100 using simulated meteorological data under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in CORDEX-EURO and CORDEX-MENA domains were also predicted. Streamflow variability was calculated based on meteorological variables and station morphological characteristics, particularly evapotranspiration. Hierarchical clustering analysis identified two clusters among the stream gauging stations, and for each cluster, two streamflow equations were derived. The regression analysis achieved robust streamflow predictions using six representative climate variables, with adj. R2 values of 0.7–0.85 across all models, primarily influenced by evapotranspiration. The use of a global model led to a 10% decrease in prediction capabilities for all CORDEX models based on R2 performance. This study emphasizes the importance of region homogeneity in estimating streamflow, encompassing both geographical and hydro-meteorological characteristics.

Performance Assessment Comparison between Physically Based and Regression Hydrological Modelling: Case Study of the Euphrates–Tigris Basin

This paper presents two hydrological models developed for the Euphrates–Tigris Basin in Turkey. The first model is a linear regression-based model allowing the estimation of streamflow based on available hydroclimatic data (precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, etc.) with the use of clustering analysis. The second model consists of an elevation-based semi-distributed hydrological model (HBV model), allowing process-based modelling of the watershed. A set of performance metrics identified the HBV model as the best performance in terms of predicting streamflow (NSE = 0.752), while the RCA4-EU regression model of CORDEX showed the most robust performance. The results show the potential of regression models from a computational and data point of view in being integrated into physically based models wherein a hybrid approach might be beneficial. The comparison of conceptual models with statistical analyses of streamflow shows the potential of regression analysis when the regions are clustered in hydro-meteorologically homogeneous groups. The employment of the conceptual model HBV also provides significantly robust streamflow estimation for the region, which is especially important in estimating the hydropower potential of the region’s near future.