Ethnic Demography Research Articles

Local Ethnic Demography and Ethnonationalist Voting: Evidence from Interwar Yugoslavia

The study explores the impact of local ethnic demography on ethnic voting, focusing on an understudied democratic experiment in Southeastern Europe during the 1920s—Yugoslavia. Using original data on 378 counties across four parliamentary elections, the study tests two competing hypotheses regarding inter-ethnic contact between Serbs and Croatians: the threat hypothesis and the contact hypothesis. The findings indicate that in contexts where demographic distribution nears parity between rival ethnic groups, minority nationalist voting intensifies while majority nationalist voting diminishes. Although majority nationalists benefit from the overall ethnic diversity, they lose to liberals in scenarios where there is parity with the rival side of the cleavage conflict.

“Right-Peopling” the State: Nationalism, Historical Legacies, and Ethnic Cleansing in Europe, 1886-2020

Many European nation-states were historically homogenized through violent ethnic cleansing. Despite its historical importance, we lack systematic evidence of the conditions under which groups where targeted with cleansing and how it impacted states’ ethnic demography. Rising nationalism in the nineteenth century threatened multi-ethnic states with “right-sizing” through secessionism and irredentism. States therefore frequently turned to brutal “right-peopling”, in particular where cross-border minorities and those with a history of political independence increased the risk of territorial losses. We test this argument with new spatial, time-variant data on ethnic geography and ethnic cleansing from 1886 to the present. We find that minorities that politically dominated another state and those that have lost political independence were most at risk of ethnic cleansing, especially in times of interstate war. At the macro-level, our results show that ethnic cleansing increased European states’ ethnic homogeneity almost as much as border change. Both produced today’s nation-states by aligning states and ethnic nations.

The changing ethnic demography of Amdo Tibet. Insights from the 2020 Population Census of China

According to the national population censuses of China, Amdo has Tibetanised, at least in crude population terms. Han populations fell – sometimes sharply – in both number and share in the majority of counties of Amdo between the 2010 to 2020 censuses due to strong outmigration. In the minority of counties where Han populations increased, most were remote counties where their numbers were very small, and Tibetan population growth was rapid in many of these counties as well. Tibetans also migrated out of their counties, although their rates of natural increase appear to have been sufficiently high that their populations continued to grow in most counties, especially given an apparent baby boom from 2005 to 2015 among Qinghai Tibetans, that subsequently maintained high youth shares up to the 2020 census in many counties. In terms of destinations, Tibetans disproportionately congregated in the capital cities of their respective provinces, where their resident populations increased by several multiples over the decade, and in a manner that contradicts some recent claims in the literature on urbanisation in Tibet. In Qinghai specifically, the census data also confirm that Muslim populations in most Tibetan counties grew at a faster pace than Tibetans, in most cases from very small numbers, although this did not occur elsewhere in Amdo. Given that both Han and Muslims in Tibetan areas are mostly concentrated in towns and cities, these changes in the ethnic composition of these towns and cities would have had important influence on mediating how Amdo Tibetans experienced rapid socio-economic change during this decade.

Ethnicity is not public service destiny: The political logic of service distribution in South Africa

Millions of South Africans have protested the unequal allocation of public services in thousands of demonstrations. Despite the African National Congress’s (ANC) promise to reduce the disparities generated by apartheid, the level of public services remains highly uneven across the country. Most studies of service provision in Africa argue that politicians will target their coethnics; others support the “diversity deficit” hypothesis, which predicts that high levels of ethnic diversity undermines service provision. Instead, we argue that explanations of service provision should first examine how political institutions incentivize politicians to choose whether, what, and how to distribute services. Even in an ethnicized polity, ethnic targeting may not be a politician’s best strategy. We seek to explain the variation in service levels across South African municipalities and advance three hypotheses: 1) municipal councilors in more ethnically diverse municipalities will form policy coalitions that produce higher service levels; 2) South African mayors will decrease services when they enjoy electorally safety due to their extensive powers and the possibility of being a residual claimant to municipality resources, and; 3) the strategic interaction between councilors and their mayor helps to account for the variation in service provision across South Africa’s municipalities. We test our hypotheses with data from more than 1.37 million households and aggregated municipality level measures and find strong support for our hypotheses. Political institutions – not just ethnic demography – can influence policy choices and service outcomes.

When Coethnicity Fails

AbstractWhy do communities with larger shares of ethnic and racial minorities have worse public goods provision? Many studies have emphasized the role of diversity in hindering public outcomes, but the question of causality remains elusive. The authors contribute to this debate by tracing the roots of both contemporary racial demography and public goods provision to the uneven historical expansion of the state. Focusing on new historical data from Brazil, the authors show that more remote municipalities with lower levels of state capacity in the past were more frequently selected by escaped slaves to serve as permanent settlements. Consequently, such municipalities have worse public services and larger shares of Afro-descendants today. These results highlight the pervasive endogeneity of the relationship between ethnic demography and public outcomes. The failure to account for context-dependent historical confounders raises concerns about the validity of previous findings regarding the social costs and benefits of any particular demographic composition.

Ethnic Demography

Ethnic Demography

Этнодемографическая характеристика населения Чукотки

The article presents an ethno-demographic characteristic of the population of Chukotka from the 18th century to the present. Until now. The source base of the study is statistical materials, published documents concerning the number and characteristics of settlement, the way of life of the indigenous people of Chukotka, scientific literature on the problems of ethnic demography. The paper presents a comparative analysis of the results of surveys and censuses of the population of Chukotka for 1897, 1926/27, 1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989, 2002, 2010 (and partly 2020) The main components of the change in the population and the national composition of the region (natural, general, migration population growth) in the Soviet and post-Soviet periods are characterized. According to the data of the 2002 and 2010 censuses, the number of Chukchi, Koryaks, and Yukagirs increased during the intercensal period; the number of Eskimos, Evens, Chuvans and Kereks decreased. The ambiguous demographic picture among indigenous peoples is connected, on the one hand, with the real processes of depopulation in some of them, and, on the other hand, with the qualitative side of the census. The main reasons for the decline in the number of indigenous people of Chukotka: problems with natural growth against the background of high birth and death rates. The decline in the birth rate is associated with a change in traditional attitudes towards having many children, a decrease in marriage rates and an increase in the proportion of single-parent families. Although the Chukchi, Eskimos, Evens and Yukagirs are classified by demographers as a group with an increased birth rate. The demographic situation is also influenced by the increase in the number of mixed marriages. It should be noted that despite the decline in the birth rate among the indigenous inhabitants of Chukotka, its rates are still higher than among the visiting population of the region. The increase in mortality rates in Chukotka is due to a change in the age structure of the inhabitants, since in the 1990s a significant part of the able-bodied population left the district, the growth in the share of indigenous people in the structure of total mortality increased. The life expectancy of indigenous peoples is significantly lower than the national and regional indicators. The current ethno-demographic situation in Chukotka will become clear after the publication of the results of the 2020 All-Russian Population Census. It can be stated with confidence that there is a significant decrease in the number of permanent residents of the region, and the number of indigenous people in the total population of the ChAO continues to increase.

Assessment of the Reproductive Potential of Ethnic Groups in the Baltic States

In the post-Soviet period, attention is paid to the depopulation problem in the Baltic States, caused by the natural decline and migration outflow. At the same time, there is a change in the amount of certain ethnic groups in the population of these states. The purpose of the study is to assess the prospects for the reproductive potential of ethnic groups in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The study was carried out within ethnic demography, a scientific discipline that has developed at the intersection of demography, ethnography, and anthropology. The article presents the results of forecasting the number of major ethnic groups in the Baltic States for the long term (until 2061) using original methodological tools. In all three Baltic states, against the background of population decline, the share of titular ethnic groups is expected to grow – the highest in Latvia, the less significant in Estonia, and the minimum in Lithuania. The share of Russians (the most significant is in Latvia) and other ethnic groups will continue to decrease due to their low reproductive potential. In general, the tendency of the Baltic countries to move away from the complex ethnic structure of the population in the Soviet period towards mono-ethnicity will continue.

Ethnic Ties, Organized Opposition and Voter Defection in Authoritarian Elections

AbstractExisting studies of ethnic voting mainly focus on democratic elections. In electoral autocracies, politically subordinate ethnicity can help citizens coordinate against the incumbent. However, we argue that collective action will be constrained when the group grows large, as it becomes costly for its members to form common behavioural norms and carry out effective sanctions through shared ethnic ties under authoritarian repression. Drawing on unique historical surveys in Taiwan, we study how Taiwanese ethnicity and local ethnic demography jointly induced voters' defection against the hegemonic KMT regime. We find that the pro-defection or anti-incumbent effect of Taiwanese ethnicity fell as the share of Taiwanese citizens in a township increased. However, the relative size of the Taiwanese group no longer undermined pro-defection ethnic voting after the KMT lifted the ban on opposition parties. Our results illustrate that formal organizations play a critical role in sustaining the informational salience of ethnicity in the elections.

Local ethno-political polarization and election violence in majoritarian vs. proportional systems.

How does local ethnic demography affect the conduct of majoritarian elections? Because legislative elections in majoritarian systems are contested locally, local ethno-political polarization increases the risk of pre-election violence. In districts that are polarized between politically competing ethnic groups, violence can be targeted with comparative ease at opposing voters, and can, if perpetrated collectively, mobilize the perpetrators’ co-ethnics. I do not expect such dynamics in PR systems where political competition plays out at higher geographical levels. To test this argument, I combine new data on the ethnic composition of local populations in 22 African countries with monthly data on riots and survey data on campaign violence. Ethno-politically polarized districts in majoritarian and mixed electoral systems see substantively larger increases in the number of riots prior to legislative elections and more fear of pre-election violence among citizens than non-polarized districts in the same country and at the same time. I do not find these patterns in PR systems. The results enhance our understanding of how electoral systems interact with local ethnic demography in shaping pre-election violence.

“Does Džeko Live in Bosnia and Herzegovina?”: Demographics as a Hostage of Ethno-politics in the 2013 Census

In ethnically divided societies and political systems organized according to the principles of consociationalism, demography plays a crucial role as a powerful tool for promoting ethno-political interests. The aim of this article is to evaluate to what extent the first post-war 2013 census in Bosnia and Herzegovina became a hostage to the principle of ethno-politics. This study is grounded in Horowitz’s analysis of censuses in deeply divided societies, which assumes that ethnic identity in fragmented societies provides an explanation of who people vote for, and the reverse. We use the data on ethnic voting in 2014 as an indirect estimate of the ethnic structure of the population to verify the 2013 census findings. To do so, we determine the extent to which people enumerated as residents in the 2013 census actually live at the places they were counted, as required by the census law. Although we found that the indirect estimate of ethnic demography based on ethnic voting is largely in line with the census results, we also identified specific structural discrepancies between census results and voting patterns that indicate possible flaws in the census data in general. The method we used revealed significant territorial discrepancies, bringing into question the validity of the census data about the presence of Bosniak and Croat returnees in the Republika Srpska, and especially for Croats across Bosnia and Herzegovina. We argue that these discrepancies may have significant political consequences for the fragile Bosnian power-sharing system based on ethnic quotas and proportionality.

Who Benefits? How Local Ethnic Demography Shapes Political Favoritism in Africa

AbstractEmpirical studies show that many governments gear the provision of goods and services towards their ethnic peers. This article investigates governments’ strategies to provide ethnic favors in Africa. Recent studies of ethnic favoritism find that presidents' ethnic peers and home regions enjoy advantages, yet cannot disentangle whether goods are provided to entire regions or co-ethnic individuals. This article argues that local ethnic demography determines whether governments provide non-excludable public goods or more narrowly targeted handouts. Where government co-ethnics are in the majority, public goods benefit all locals regardless of their ethnic identity. Outside of these strongholds, incumbents pursue discriminatory strategies and only their co-ethnics gain from favoritism. Using fine-grained geographic data on ethnic demographics, the study finds support for the argument's implications in the local incidence of infant mortality. These findings have important implications for theories of distributive politics and conflict in multi-ethnic societies.

Feeble projects and aspirations: the Caucasian and Transcaucasian federation/confederation in the geopolitics of 1918–1920

ABSTRACTThe collapse of central power in the Russian Empire 1917 left the peoples of the Caucasus alone in the midst of the havoc of the Great War. While political elites were forced to detach the region from Soviet Russia, they simultaneously realized that Transcaucasia could survive only in unity, and thus formed first a Commissariat and then a Federation. Yet geopolitics, the shared imperial legacy, the economic prognoses, the complex ethnic demography, and the existing boundary disagreements ultimately made federation impossible. Nevertheless, the victorious Allies of the Great War saw their interests in the Caucasian “package”, advising that a Federation or a Confederation be created in the region. This article examines the geopolitical significance of the discourse surrounding this proposed Caucasian and Transcaucasian federation/confederation.

Diversity and the Difficulty of Living it: The Case of Public Spaces in Skopje (North Macedonia)

Abstract Ethnic diversity and cultural heterogeneity are a reality for the city of Skopje, the capital of North Macedonia. The changing ethnic demography and redressed power-balance between majority and non-majority groups on local level have spurred a turbulent conflict – that of governance of diversity in public space. This paper aims to understand citizens’ views on how language, ethnicity, religion and collective cultural symbols are legitimised through the political, social and symbolic value of public spaces in their neighbourhoods. The results indicate that the political value of public spaces to stimulate contact, deliberation and debate among citizens on issues of their concern is undermined. Public spaces in Skopje are not planned and managed through a wide forum of citizen engagement. The colliding ethnonationalism and symbolic power struggle between the major ethnic groups result in co-ethnic preferences in socialisation and selection of public spaces. The concept of “the appropriate citizen” constructed through the symbolic meaning of public spaces perpetuates ethnonational rhetoric and supports expressions of citizenship that are limited to the nation-state and ethnic identification. In opposition to contact theory, this research indicates that self-segregation of ethnic groups can be prevalent in multi-ethnic neighbourhoods. This should make us think of the context where the contact is established and not only of the content of the interaction.

Many Tongues, One Faith: A History of Franciscan Parish Life in the United States by David J. Endres

Reviewed by: Many Tongues, One Faith: A History of Franciscan Parish Life in the United States by David J. Endres Kyle Haden OFM Many Tongues, One Faith: A History of Franciscan Parish Life in the United States. By David J. Endres. Oceanside, CA: Academy of American Franciscan History, 2018. 210 pp. $25.00. A common trope in immigration histories of the United States is the profound effect U.S. culture has had on the many different ethnic and religious groups settling in America. While many coming to the United States had intentions of maintaining cultural and religious traditions as practiced in the Old World, the desire to fit into the American cultural majority was, in many cases, too strong a temptation. For many Catholics, a means for holding onto Old World devotions and practices [End Page 86] was through the local parish. The parish became an oasis among a majority Protestant culture, a means of maintaining Catholic practice and identity. The centrality of the parish in American Catholic life would profoundly reshape Franciscan life and ministry. In his study of Franciscan ministry in the United States, David J. Endres offers an intriguing and well narrated story of 16 representative parishes in which Franciscan priests, brothers, and sisters ministered to the needs of a variety of ethnic communities, from the early nineteenth century to the present. Endres primarily focuses on the three first-order male Franciscan communities: the Order of Friars Minor, Capuchins, and Conventuals. He also notes the important contributions offered by various Franciscan sisters working alongside their Franciscan brothers. In conjunction with Franciscan parish ministry, Endres narrates the creation of several Franciscan provinces formed due to ministerial needs in an expanding national and ethnic demography. From the acquisition of established parishes to the founding and building of new structures, parish ministry became a central ministerial reality for the majority of American friars. As a major theme running through his study, Endres demonstrates how traditional Franciscan life as practiced in the Old World was transformed by the centrality of the parish in American Catholic life. In the Old World, friars did not have a tradition of parish ministry. Franciscan life was much more centered on the monastery, with a defined regiment of daily prayer. Such a commitment to the horarium was not practical for life in America, especially when dealing with the demands of parish ministry. While early Franciscan immigrants resisted change to their traditional religious lifestyle, many bishops put pressure on Franciscan superiors to encourage friars to accept parish assignments. In doing so, Franciscan life was noticeably changed. While narrating Franciscan ministry in the United States, Endres also examines the changing reality of American life and how Franciscan parish ministry kept apace of these social and cultural changes. In many cases friars had to deal with the negative social realities of [End Page 87] American life, especially in terms of racial and ethnic bigotry, as well as economic disparities. Advocacy for the rights of minorities is highlighted in the lives of such friars as Bonaventure Oblasser, OFM, who advocated for the rights of Native Americans in Arizona; Stephen Eckert, OFM Cap, who championed the rights of African Americans in Milwaukee; and Oliver Lynch, OFM, who sought economic and social equity for farm workers and Latinos in California. The establishment of parish schools, especially for the needs of minorities, highlights the dedication of Franciscan sisters who labored alongside their male counterparts, in some cases under difficult and challenging circumstances. Many Tongues, One Faith is the first in the projected series United States Franciscan History Project by the Academy of American Franciscan History. It is an excellent study to begin such a series of historical research. Endres offers a well-written, well-researched history of Franciscan life and ministry in the United States. It is highly recommended to historians, and others, interested in American Catholic history. [End Page 88] Kyle Haden OFM St. Bonaventure University Copyright © 2019 American Catholic Historical Society

Demographic Engineering and International Conflict: Evidence from China and the Former USSR

AbstractWhen and where do states coercively alter their internal demography? We build a theory that predicts under what conditions states alter the demographic “facts on the ground” by resettling and expelling ethno-national populations. We predict that, under particular scope conditions, states will employ demographic engineering to shore up control over (1) nonnatural frontiers, and (2) areas populated by ethnic minorities who are co-ethnics with elites in a hostile power. We then substantiate our predictions using new subnational data from both China and the USSR. Causally identifying the spatially differential effect of international conflict on demographic engineering via a difference-in-differences design, we find that the Sino-Soviet split (1959–1982) led to a disproportionate increase in the expulsion of ethnic Russians and resettlement of ethnic Han in Chinese border areas lacking a natural border with the USSR, and that resettlement was targeted at areas populated by ethnic Russians. On the Soviet side, we similarly find that the Sino-Soviet split led to a significant increase in expulsion of Chinese and the resettlement of Russians in border areas, and that resettlement was targeted at areas populated by more Chinese. We develop the nascent field of political demography by advancing our theoretical and empirical understanding ofwhen, where, andto whomstates seek to effect demographic change. By demonstrating that both ethnic group concentration and dispersion across borders are endogenous to international conflict, our results complicate a large and influential literature linking ethnic demography to conflict.

Mass Resettlement and Political Violence

This article examines the relationship between mass resettlement and political conflict. The author theorizes that states can use mass resettlement to extend control over contested frontiers. Settlers whose land rights are politically contested will disproportionately participate in violence to defend the incumbent regime. The theory is tested using data on resettlement and violence in postcolonial Rwanda. The author shows that the Hutu revolutionary regime resettled some 450,000 Hutus after independence to frontier and Tutsi-dominated areas to defend itself against external Tutsi militias. The author contends that the invasion of the Tutsi-led Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) in the 1990s threatened the Hutu settler population because the RPF sought the repatriation of Tutsis onto redistributed land and that consequent land insecurity incentivized violence against Tutsis in 1994. The article identifies the positive effect of resettlement on locality violence during the genocide via a geographic regression discontinuity design. A process tracing of one notoriously violent resettled commune supports the theorized causal sequence. In light of these findings, the author suggests that research should refocus on the way that conflict shapes ethnic demography and that, to understand participation in state-sponsored violence, scholars should attend to the threat posed by regime change to individual livelihoods.

From adversaries to allies: ethnic gerrymandering and ethnic party behaviour in local elections in Macedonia

AbstractConstitutional designers often construct political institutions to provide greater autonomy to ethnic minority groups. One tool available to constitutional designers is ‘ethnic gerrymandering’, where the boundaries of local government units are altered to provide greater representation to minority groups. This paper analyses the effects of changes in the ethnic composition of municipalities, which occur as a result of ethnic gerrymandering, on ethnic party behaviour. I compare ethnic party behaviour in local elections in the Republic of Macedonia from 2000 to 2013. I expand on a theory initially proposed by Sherrill Stroschein linking ethnic demography to ethnic party behaviour. I find that changes in the ethnic composition of municipalities influence whether rival ethnic parties engage in outbidding or whether ethnic communities unite behind a single ethnic party. My findings have important implications for those tasked with designing political institutions in ethnically divided societies.

Ethnic mobilization in 2015 local elections in North Sumatra, Indonesia

ABSTRACTSince Indonesia implemented the regional decentralization in 2001, ethnic politics attracted increasing scholarly attention. In the regional head elections, ethnic mobilization has become a pervasive phenomenon. Drawing upon the data in the 2015 local elections in the North Sumatra province, the article discusses two related questions, the strategy and the effect of ethnic mobilization. The article argues that, contrary to the minimum winning coalition theory, there is a weak correlation between the ethnic demography and the choice of ethnic mobilization strategy (bonding or bridging). Among all the ethnic mobilization tactics, the support of ethnic organizations may have a weak to moderate and positive impact on the voting results, while other tactics, including pairing with candidates of other ethnic groups and cultural presentations of ethnic identity, do not have much influence on the election results.

ЭТНИЧЕСКАЯ ДЕМОГРАФИЯ: МЕЖДИСЦИПЛИНАРНОСТЬ, ПРИНЦИПЫ И КАЗАХСТАНСКАЯ ПРАКТИКА

ЭТНИЧЕСКАЯ ДЕМОГРАФИЯ: МЕЖДИСЦИПЛИНАРНОСТЬ, ПРИНЦИПЫ И КАЗАХСТАНСКАЯ ПРАКТИКА