Ethnic Cleavages Research Articles

Political Settlement and China’s Overseas Operation: The Case of Ethiopia

Abstract Political settlement analysis (PSA) has become a common approach scholars use to study socioeconomic differences among African countries. However, less attention has been given to how political settlement influences how African countries interact with their foreign counterparts. In this article, we illustrate the impact of political settlement on foreign policy by analyzing Ethiopia’s interactions with China. As one of China’s closest economic partners in Africa, Ethiopia, with its long-standing ethnic cleavages and political instability in the last few years, represents an ideal case for this topic. We find that the evolving political settlement in Ethiopia has greatly influenced the official engagements between the two countries. Over time, various Chinese actors have also developed a more nuanced understanding of the political dynamics of Ethiopia and the associated risks of investing in the country. Our study contributes to an emerging literature that emphasizes the power of local agencies in influencing China–Africa relations.

The motivating and mobilizing effects of inequality on civil conflict: Focusing on trade-induced labor market shocks

This article has two aims: (1) to identify the causal effect of income inequality on civil conflict and (2) to find the mechanism in which disadvantaged individuals can mobilize collective violence. Applying the Heckscher-Ohlin and Stopler-Samuelson theorems, this study hypothesizes that workers in land-rich countries – those who face contracted demand in the labor market and consequently a larger income disparity – will have a lower opportunity cost to engage in conflict as trade expands. Exploiting exogenous spatial variation in inequality due to the country’s factor endowment, together with time variation in tariffs arising from the economic liberalization, the work of this research documents a statistically significant and economically meaningful causal effect of inequality on civil conflict. Secondly, to identify the mobilizing effect of inequality, I test whether higher disparity in income distribution within an ethnic group breeds more rebellions initiated by the group. Esteban and Ray’s model claims that an increase in income inequality within an ethnic group makes collective violence more likely, because the poor within the group provide conflict labor, and the rich within the group provide resources for violence. By merging international census data that cover 115 million individuals from 221 ethnic groups with the groups’ conflict records, the analysis empirically identifies that when holding total ethnic income constant, within-group inequality that is proxied by the unemployment rate is strongly correlated with the group’s propensity to initiate armed conflicts. Shedding new light on the prevailing scholarly discord that exclusively chooses either one of class and ethnic cleavages as sources of intrastate violence, the findings of this study imply that if trade-induced labor market shocks increase within-group inequality, it motivates workers to participate in rebellions by lowering their opportunity cost of fighting and mobilizes ethnic collective violence by allowing the ethnic leaders to recruit combatants at a lower cost.

Group Self‐Interest vs. Equity: Explaining Support for Horizontal Redistribution in (Former) Competitive Clientelist States

Extant literature links intergroup disparities, or horizontal inequalities, in Sub‐Saharan Africa to the unequal representation of ethnic groups in central power, who accumulate wealth at the expense of politically marginalized groups. Over time, these politically‐induced inequalities have trapped some ethnic groups in positions of relative disadvantage. Group‐based, or horizontal, redistribution can help redress these inequalities yet require popular support if they are not to contribute to intergroup tensions. In this article, we examine how people’s experiences of political exclusion, on the one hand, and their attributional beliefs about the causes of political exclusion, on the other, condition support for government policies aimed at eradicating economic inequalities between different ethnic groups. We argue that people are more likely to be supportive of horizontal redistribution either when (H1a) they belong to ethnic groups that have not had access to central power, and/or (H1b) feel that their ethnic group is politically marginalized (and thus stands to gain); or when (H2) they attribute the political exclusion of the politically marginalized group(s) that stand(s) to benefit from these policies to the legacies of colonialism and clientelism (thus seeking to foster equity). To test our hypotheses, we examine these issues in the context of Kenya, a society with politically salient ethnic cleavages and a history of clientelism. Based on a unique online survey involving 2,286 Kenyans, we show that, notwithstanding group self‐interest being at play, there is strong support for horizontal redistribution across groups.

The same social elevator? Intergenerational class mobility of second-generation immigrants across Europe

Abstract Ethnicity and social class are two of the main axes stratifying life chances in developed societies. Nevertheless, knowledge of the integration of ethnic minorities into the pattern of class reproduction remains incipient as evidence stems mostly from studies concentrating on specific ethnicities or single host countries. This article advances this knowledge by providing a comparative perspective on the intergenerational occupational mobility of second-generation immigrants and the majority population across 26 European countries. Drawing on pooled data from the European Social Survey (2004–2018), the article demonstrates that ethnic penalties arise for employment and occupational mobility in many countries, however, with crucial differences across and—to a smaller extent—within major country groups. Across countries, ethnic barriers for the second generation are connected to their social integration in the host society and the composition of the first migrant generation, emphasizing the importance of familial and social support for social advancement. By contrast, I detect no link between anti-immigration norms and ethnic penalties, and only mixed evidence for the role of integration policy. The article concludes that ‘ethnicity matters’ in many European societies, even if ethnic cleavages vary according to the composition of migrant populations and the context in the host society.

Can institutions explain mass violence? Amhara ‘settler’ discourse and Ethiopia's ethnic federalism

AbstractThis paper begins by reviewing rational choice institutionalism's explanation of how political institutions incentivise patronage networks emphasising ethnic cleavage. Acknowledging the limits of rationalist institutionalism in explaining societal norm constructions and mass behaviour, the paper then adopts discursive institutionalism to analyse the social affects of institutional design. The case study of violence against Amharas deemed ‘settlers’ in Ethiopia's contemporary ethnic federation highlights how new cleavages create new norms and new historical narratives, influencing group dynamics. These dynamics result in group‐based mass violence when rents‐based orders and patronage networks collapse during times of institutional instability or change. Thus, precipitated by the discursive effects of hyper‐ethnicised institutional design, mass violence against Amhara in different ethnic regions in Ethiopia emerges as an unexpected outcome of regime change and democratic transition in the country. These incidents of targeted violence are not simply explained by institutions, but rather by the socio‐political climate effected by the interaction between institutions and discourse under ethnic federalism. In short, this study demonstrates how institutions go beyond incentivising or constraining elite behaviour, producing discursive markers that normalise violence during periods of institutional ‘lapse’, when formal provisions of social order temporarily collapse.

Not Set in Stone: An Assessment of the Impacts of Ethnicity on Statehood and Social Cohesion in Kenya, 1963-2022

This paper revisits challenges facing Kenya as a multi-ethnic society. While ethnicity have been important thematic and policy issues for scholars and policy makers in the recent decades, very few studies have focused on the efforts dimension, statehood and social cohesion in Kenya. Given the importance of statehood and social cohesion, this study will try to question the legacies of successive regimes which were largely responsible for the lack of social cohesion by examining the regime’s reinforcing narratives which are illustrative of the success of propaganda and disinformation machinery meant to obfuscate subjugation of the masses and justify crushing of dissent. The author argues that the challenge of identity in Kenya has been exacerbated by failure in nation-building and the creation of a national identity. To demonstrate the challenges facing Kenya’s statehood and social cohesion, the paper examines efforts by previous successive governments toward nation-building. It examines academic publications, government strategy documents, media reports, and archival sources. The paper finds that despite efforts by the Kenya’s four consecutive regimes to promote national unity, a vicious cycle of ethnic cleavages has undermined these efforts and instead created new points of ethnic animosities. The paper concludes with some policy recommendations.

Determinants of swing voting in Africa: evidence from Ghana's elections

ABSTRACT An increasing number of African countries are experiencing electoral power shifts, indicating that more voters are switching loyalties between parties and candidates. Theories that pin electoral change in Africa on clientelism, patronage, and ethnic cleavages fail to account for the dynamics surrounding these shifting loyalties. This study probes the factors that pry swing voters away from core supporters in African elections. Using data from a nationally representative sample of over 3000 voters across Ghana, we find evidence that voters exempted from positive clientelist inducements (gifts) were more likely to cast swing votes. We also find that voters exposed to negative clientelism (wary of violence or forceful forfeiture of benefits after elections) were more likely to cast swing votes. Nonetheless, voters wary of violence but who have received gifts in exchange for their votes were less likely to swing their vote, indicating that negative clientelism is only effective when accompanied by positive inducements. Finally, we find that voters who prioritize parties’ performance records were more likely to switch their votes from one party to another. Our results imply that the rising political power shifts on the continent are driven by an increasing share of voters unencumbered by clientelist inducements and a rising determination to prioritize national interests over parochial benefits.

Ethnic plurality, political mobilisation, social divisions and the formation of conflict structures in North-Eastern Ghana

Political mobilisation is a necessary aspect of any democracy in the world. Since the introduction of democracy in Ghana, political mobilisation has become part of the political process that characterises the selection and choice of leaders. This phenomenon manifests itself differently in different geographical areas of the country. While processes of political mobilisation have received adequate academic attention, the extent to which they are immersed in coincidental ethnic cleavages to engender the formation of conflict structures in the specific region of the Bawku/Kusaug Traditional Area is less studied. This study contributes to the critical literature on political mobilisation by nuancing the debate on political mobilisation to include how political mobilisation reinforces ethnic division and creates contours and pathways through which ethnic conflicts inchoate and sophisticate. The study used a case study design of the qualitative approach to investigate the phenomenon. Twenty-seven participants were selected through an expert purposive sampling technique to partake in focus group discussions and personal interviews. The data collected through these methods were analysed using inductive thematic analysis. The analysis revealed that political mobilisation in Bawku is often anchored through the ethnic elite who mobilise their people along ethnic lines for or against specified political parties. This often creates different political rewards for each ethnic group depending on the political party that emerge victorious in elections. These differential rewards lead to violent confrontations with several economic, social and security consequences. The study therefore suggested strategies to better anchor political mobilisation and ensure peaceful co-existence among ethnic groups in the Bawku/Kusaug Traditional Area, the Upper East, Northern Ghana and Ghana as a whole

Guiana: petróleo, disputas internas, EUA e Venezuela

Abstract Abstract: Guyana has a strategic geographic position in the Amazon and the Greater Caribbean area, as revealed in the strategic thinking and military presence of the United States (USA). Its territory also possesses abundant natural resources, especially after the recent and significant oil discoveries, having the American company ExxonMobil as protagonist. Meanwhile, the country is characterised by a domestic political and ethnic cleavage. In addition, Venezuela and Guyana are in a historical dispute for the Essequibo area, which is potentially endowed and surrounded by areas with strategic resources. The main argument of the paper is that the oil discoveries in Guyana are leading to geopolitical and geoeconomic impacts regarding the intensification of domestic and foreign disputes, involving American and Venezuelan interests and recent state actions. More broadly, it points out that the north of South America has become one of the stages of the global power strife, in view of the Sino-Russian and American presences, in a context of Brazil’s absence. To survey and evaluate the actors’ actions resulting from the oil findings in Guyana, the paper is based on geopolitical and geoeconomic concepts, energy data, specialised academic and journalistic bibliography.

Divided We Fall: Ethnic Cleavages, Movement Cohesion, and the Risk of Escalation to Civil War in Non-Violent Uprisings

ABSTRACT Why do some non-violent uprisings escalate into armed violence while others do not? We suggest that horizontal polarisation contributes to the escalation of non-violent campaigns. We examine the effect of ethnic cleavages between the campaign and its opponent and movement cohesion as explanatory factors for escalation into civil war and non-state violence. Statistical analysis of all major non-violent campaigns (1970–2014) shows that non-violent conflicts with ethnic cleavages have a higher risk of escalating into armed violence in particular, when the conflict takes place over governmental aims. The results also indicate that movement cohesion alleviates the risk of armed escalation.

Выборы в Африке: успехи и неудачи этнической и региональной консолидации электората

The article examines the impact of elite coalition strategies on the ethno-regional consolidation of the electorate in African countries. Ethnic voting has traditionally been seen as a key factor in African elections, but recent research shows that other determinants also play a significant role. Moreover, it is clear that the strength of ethnic voting varies considerably from country to country, and various explanations have been offered, ranging from the features of the historical path to the structure of ethnic splits and the sizes of the ethnic groups in question. We suggest that the strength of ethnic voting can vary not only between countries, but also between different electoral cycles in the same country. The reason for this is the choice of strategy by political actors: we assume that when a coalition strategy is chosen, the role of ethnic cleavages will decrease, and the territorial homogeneity of the vote will increase. This paper examines three cases similar in terms of democracy level, political system, British colonial past, and ethnic heterogeneity: Malawi, Nigeria and Ghana. In cases of Malawi and Nigeria, we observe how the choice or rejection of a coalition strategy by political actors can influence the increase or decrease of ethno-regional consolidation of the electorate. Ghana is an example of successful and stable consolidation achieved through the consistent application of coalition strategies. This article demonstrates that coalition strategies of elites can indeed influence ethno-regional consolidation of the electorate. In addition, the research reveals that voting is significantly influenced by some other non-ethnic factors related to economic voting (both retrospective and prospective), strategic voting of smaller ethnic groups, and distinctive kind of voting in national capitals.

Ethnic versus national identity and satisfaction with democracy: The decline of the ethnic cleavage in Nigeria?

ABSTRACT In this article, we evaluate the impact of ethnic and national identities on satisfaction with democracy in Nigeria, a state with deep historical ethno-regional divisions. Applying Easton’s (1965) seminal framework of diffuse versus specific support, we examine how Nigerians combine their ethnic and national identities (diffuse support), and analyze the extent to which territorial identities influence democratic satisfaction vis-à-vis evaluative factors (specific support), such as trust in institutions and the current government’s performance in addressing the needs of its citizens. We employ a multilevel model using the seventh round of the Nigeria Afrobarometer survey. We find that a dominant ethnic identity does decrease democratic satisfaction. However, a number of specific support measures, such as trust in the state and local governments and evaluations of the government’s economic performance are stronger predictors. We interpret this as a decline in the salience of the ethnic cleavage in Nigeria.

Regional cleavages in African politics: Persistent electoral blocs and territorial oppositions

Do socio-economic cleavages shape electoral dynamics in African countries? Previous individual-level and party systems research on African politics has de-emphasized socio-economic factors, contributing to the common view that ethnic cleavages and short-term ethnic alliances define politics both locally and nationally. Focusing on Kenya, Zambia, and Malawi, we draw on methods in electoral geography to offer a spatial analysis of geographic patterns in constituency-level electoral returns over three decades that reveals the existence of persistent regional voting blocs that, in their temporal stability and multiethnic character, are not well explained by prevailing theory. The anomalies open the door to a reinterpretation national electoral structure and dynamics in the three countries that takes the geographic clustering of the persistent voting blocs as a clue to their etiology. We propose an interpretation that focuses on core-periphery cleavages in national electorates, following Lipset and Rokkan's (1967) classic model of territorial oppositions in countries undergoing political and economic integration and modernization. DHS data and proxies for regional economic activity support this interpretation. Socio-economic cleavages of the type explored in comparative political economy literatures on spatial inequality and territorial politics may be more salient in African electoral politics than previously thought.

Inequality, elections, and communal riots in India

How does inequality within and between ethno-religious groups influence the likelihood and frequency of communal riots? Using evidence from India, this article finds that low within-group and high between-group inequality dampens the likelihood and frequency of communal riots. Theoretically, the article suggests that the instrumental logic, which posits that ethnonationalist politicians use violence to stoke ethnic cleavages and mobilize support, best accounts for this finding. We argue that to be politically competitive, ethnonationalist politicians need their supporters to identify foremost with their ethnic identity. When inequality within groups is high and/or inequality between groups is low, citizens are less likely to focus on ethnicity as their primary identity. In such contexts, politicians may use communal riots to improve their electoral prospects by reinforcing the salience of ethnicity. Empirically, the article relies on a time-series cross-district analysis of inequality and Hindu–Muslim riots in India to test the instrumental argument against theoretical alternatives. To illustrate the causal logic, the article also uses the analysis of a communal riot that occurred in Muzaffarnagar, Uttar Pradesh. Analyzing three aspects of the riot – background conditions, timing, targets of propaganda – we evaluate the different predictions of the instrumental argument. The article concludes with the suggestion that communal riots are distinct from cases of mass violence – such as civil wars, genocide, and ethnic cleansing – and could be conceptualized, along with other types of small-scale political violence, as a separate class of events with their own internal logic.

‘Tribal balancing’: exclusionary elite coalitions and Zambia’s 2021 elections

ABSTRACT Presidents have access to a range of resources unavailable to challengers, and often the most important are derived from control of the state. This allows incumbents to build more inclusive elite coalitions, distribute clientelist resources to their political base and co-opt opposition politicians. Cabinet and government appointments are some of the most visible, direct and identifiable indications of elite accommodation, and African presidents are more likely to build inclusive coalitions to ensure their survival. In Zambia, balanced regional representation – popularly known as “tribal balancing” – has held an important place in the public imagination. But between 2015 and 2021, rather than using incumbent advantage to build an ethnically inclusive alliance, President Lungu used cabinet appointments and senior government positions to shore up his base. This was bolstered by an exclusionary campaign that focused on the opposition leader’s ethnicity to push the PF’s base to vote against the opposition. This article uses an analysis of cabinet appointments and coverage of the election campaign to illustrate how Lungu sought to build an exclusionary coalition and exacerbate ethnic cleavages. This contributes to debates on when and why elites might use exclusionary strategies, and when they might fail to produce the desired outcome.

Institutional trust paradox: understanding the dynamics of trust among different ethnic groups in Sri Lanka

ABSTRACT The article explores institutional trust dynamics in Sri Lanka and asks what accounts for varying levels of trust different ethnic groups have in governance institutions in the post-war context. Three decades of ethnic conflict, the emergence of ethno-religious polarisation since the end of civil war, militarised ethnocracy, and the majoritarian ethnocratic state all highlight the need to understand these dynamics. The article presents the results of twonationally representative surveys on institutional trust in Sri Lanka (2015 & 2020), which showed a puzzling trend: in 2015, minorities had higher trust in public institutions, whereas, in 2020, the same minorities had lower trust. The study finds that citizens’ evaluation of public institutions is affected by ethnic cleavages, institutional fairness, and perceived performance. On the one hand, Sinhala–Buddhist ideology and dominance of ethnic majority in public institutions are more likely to determine institutional trust among the ethnic majority Sinhalese; on the other, perceived injustice and unfair treatment shapes institutional trust among the ethnic minorities. Overall, the study finds that an increase in institutional performance may not be sufficient; institutionalising equal treatment, fairness, and enhancing governance quality are necessary to enhance institutional trust among all ethnic groups in ethnically polarized societies.

Reassessing Ethnic-based Party Formation, Proliferation and Political Instability in Nigeria: A Periscope into the Future

This paper examined the manifestations of ethnic cleavage and identity on party formation and proliferation in Nigeria’s political landscape. Nigeria is unarguably a country with multi-ethnic nationalities with each group intermingling with another in the tussle for political power. From independence until the Fourth Republic, the nation’s social structure in terms of heterogeneity has significantly influenced electoral politics. This raises germane concerns as to why the formation of political parties in the country tilts more towards ethnic attachment and is bereft of ideological leanings, unlike what is obtainable in advanced democracies. From a historical-descriptive perspective, the paper unfolded the bases for the rise of ethnic-based political parties as well as justified the contention that ethnic-based considerations in the political process have contributed to political instability in Nigeria. Moreover, the paper authenticated the fact that ethnic-based parties featured prominently in the early years of independence and afterwards, resulting in regime displacements and that ethnicity is still a foremost determinant of party formation and political contests in contemporary Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. Consequently, the paper recommended, prominently, that political party leaders should avoid actions that could heat the Nigerian polity up and eventually plunge the country into crisis with attendant political instability; rather they should focus on issues that will promote political integration and cohesion among ethnic nationalities within the country.

Can regime change improve ethnic relations? Perception of ethnic minorities after the 2021 coup in Myanmar

AbstractRegime change often exacerbates ethnic conflict. This article examines the curious case of Myanmar, where a 2021 military coup was met, on the surface, with broad-based resistance across a divided society. An important question that therefore arises is whether, below the surface, this unity also took a more positive form of national solidarity. Were deep ethnic cleavages intensified or alleviated by the 2021 coup? This question bears theoretical relevance for the study of ethnic conflict and has social relevance for a nation marked by a long history of civil war and a recent experience of genocide against Rohingya Muslims. The article engages in a systematic examination of 180 social media posts uploaded in Burmese by key opinion leaders both before and after the coup. A qualitative analysis of major positive and negative themes indicates a shift in attitudes. The quantitative analysis shows that ethnic relations, measured by a change in themes, ratings and virality, improved significantly in the immediate aftermath of Myanmar's 2021 coup.

Institutional Restructuring and Reforms for National Development

This paper argues that weak national institutions cannot be relied upon to produce successful restructuring and reform packages that can lead to accelerated national development and higher living standards for the Nigerian people. The paper further identifies weak national institutions, the pursuit of pecuniary individual and group interests, ethnic cleavages and intra-ethnic rivalries among the elite class, including the extractive nature of politics and economic pursuits, as major factors militating against successful restructuring and meaningful institutional reforms in Nigeria, which are hinged on accelerated technological innovation, political development and wealth creation. The paper concludes that only strong and functional institutions, inclusive political and economic policies, and innovative leadership can bring about accelerated national development in Nigeria.

Sycophantic Culture and the Sustainability of Democracy in Nigeria

Since the return to democratic or civil rule in Nigeria in 1999, we have had the opportunity to take our cherished democracy through successful successive rebirths. Our democracy has been a major factor for the changes, development and growth which we share today. This democracy has also taught us to checkmate people placed in positions in our bid to fight poverty, ensure social cohesion, facilitate the development of our social services, deepen political participation and awareness, and above all, sustain the peace of one Nigeria. However, it is observed with great concern and urgency that there is this dangerous cancerous enigmatic culture which if not tackled, has the propensity to derail and crumble our gigantic efforts to build a better Nigerian democratic culture. This cancer is what I call “sycophantic culture” which is more dangerous than the coup makers. Hence, this paper argues that this sycophantic culture in our socio-economic and political lives is one of the biggest threats we face even as we shape our democracy. Using analytic, historical and expository stencils, the paper identifies the various shades and forms this culture has hindered the making of our national rebirth where merit strives, mediocrity is shunned, ethnic cleavages are integrated at a higher level and cheap religious sentiments down played. The paper concludes using Tiv system of moral justice which reveres the pride of truth telling as a strong panacea towards building an integrative Nigerian democratic variable culture.