Estuaries In Australia Research Articles

Impact of climate change on major floods flowing into the Georges River estuary, Australia

Coastal flooding induced by storm surges and heavy rainfall is one of the most frequent climate-related natural hazards along the southeast Australian coast, home to more than 55% of the Australian population. Flooding in this densely populated region is a threat to public safety, coastal infrastructure, ecological systems and the economy. Although climate change is expected to cause an increase in major floods, few studies have quantified the potential changes in flood severity. This study quantifies the changes in flood peak discharge flowing to the Georges River estuary in Australia due to climate-change. An event-based hydrological model, Watershed Bounded Network Model (WBNM), was used to predict flood discharge. This hydrological model was forced by rainfall data obtained from the New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory Regional Climate Modelling Project version 1.5 (NARCliM1.5) for both historical and the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) conditions. Model calibration for the floods of March 1978 and March 2022 achieved a general agreement between the predicted and observed hydrographs, with an overall average 14% error in the peak values, further demonstrating that the modelling approach is generally reliable in projections of flood severity. Using high resolution climate model projections, the present study observed an increase of 22% in the model ensemble average from historical conditions to the RCP8.5 scenario for the 20-year average recurrence interval (ARI) 24 h extreme rainfall. This heightened extreme rainfall consequently resulted in the changes in flood discharge with an average rise of 55%. This study provides specific assessment of climate-generated risks for densely-populated regions, especially those on Australian east coast. Global studies have suggested that extreme precipitation events will increase under climate change. This study supports and enhances these assertions by using high resolution downscaling to quantify the specific changes within a large catchment.

Assessing the Efficacy of a Bouchot-Style Shellfish Reef as a Restoration Option in a Temperate Estuary

Shellfish reefs around the world have become degraded, and recent efforts have focused on restoring these valuable habitats. This study is the first to assess the efficacy of a bouchot-style reef, where mussels were seeded onto wooden stakes and deployed in a hypereutrophic estuary in Australia. While >60% of translocated mussels survived one month, after ten months, only 2% remained alive, with this mortality being accompanied, at least initially, by declining body condition. Mussel survival, growth, body condition and recruitment were greater on the top section of the stake, implying that the distance from the substrate was important. More fish species inhabited the reefs (31) than unstructured control sites (17). Reefs were also colonised by a range of invertebrate species, including 11 native and six non-indigenous species. However, the number of individuals declined from 4495 individuals from 14 species in December 2019 to 35 individuals representing 4 species in March 2021, likely due to hypoxic bottom water conditions following unseasonal rainfall. Although the bouchot-style reefs were unable to sustain mussels and other invertebrates over sequential years, this approach has the potential to be successful if deployed in shallow water or intertidal zones, which are largely exempt from biotic and abiotic stressors characteristic of deeper waters in microtidal estuaries.

Sea level rise and the increasing frequency of inundation in Australia’s most exposed estuary

The large tidal lake systems along the Southeast Australian coast are amongst the most vulnerable estuaries in Australia to the effects of sea level rise. In these lakes, reduced tide ranges compared with the ocean, in combination with modest flood extremes, have allowed development to occur in close vertical proximity to the current mean sea level. In this study, we examine water levels within Lake Macquarie, Australia’s most exposed estuary to sea level rise. We analyse water level data from the entrance channel and the lake to investigate recent changes to the frequency and duration of inundation or flooding of low-lying streets and examine the potential impacts of future rises in sea level. Our analysis shows that the numbers of days each year when water levels exceed those of low-lying streets, while subject to some variability, have increased significantly over recent decades. The increasing frequency of inundation is attributed to both mean sea level rise and an increase in tide range over the period of available data, which is thought to be associated with scour processes related to ongoing morphological adjustment to entrance training works undertaken over a century ago. Comparison of the projected behaviour of lake and open coast water levels under sea level rise shows the lake has significantly greater sensitivity to sea level rise. Projected inundation frequency for a given amount of sea level rise within the lake is double that of open coast sites, exposing infrastructure in the estuary to increasing risk of damage.

Heterogeneous tidal marsh soil organic carbon accumulation among and within temperate estuaries in Australia

The scarcity of data on tidal marsh soil accumulation rates (SAR) and soil organic carbon accumulation rates (CAR) globally precludes a comprehensive assessment of the role of tidal marshes in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Particularly few data exist from the southern hemisphere and for Australia in particular, which contains ~24% of globally recognised tidal marsh extent. Here we estimate SAR and CAR over the last 70 years using 210Pb-based geochronologies in temperate estuarine tidal marsh ecosystems in southern Western Australia (WA). Specifically, we assessed tidal marsh ecosystems situated in two geomorphic settings (marine vs. fluvial deltas) within 10 wave-dominated, barrier estuaries. Overall, average SAR (1.1 ± 0.3 mm yr−1) and CAR (32 ± 9 g m−2 yr−1) estimates were 5-fold lower than global mean estimates. Furthermore, we showed that hotspots of soil organic carbon stocks are not indicative of current hotspots for CAR. The lack of significant differences (P > 0.05) in SAR, CAR, and excess 210Pb inventories between marine and fluvial settings can be explained by the high heterogeneity among and within estuaries throughout the region. The relative stability of recent and Holocene relative sea-levels in WA likely explains the limited CAR potential in tidal marshes under relatively stable sea-level conditions. However, further research exploring interactions among biotic and abiotic factors within estuaries is required to shed more light on the small spatial-scale variability in SAR and CAR across tidal marsh ecosystems in WA and elsewhere. This study provides baseline estimates for the inclusion of tidal marshes in national carbon inventories, identifies hotspots for the development of blue carbon projects, and supports the use of site-specific assessments opposed to regional means for estimating blue carbon resources.

Invasive Japanese foraminifera in a south-west Australian estuary

An invasive foraminiferan is recorded for the first time in an Australian estuary. Trochammina hadai, originally described as endemic from Japan and subsequently found to be alien in coastal waters of California and Brazil, has been identified in estuarine sediment in the vicinity of Bunbury Port in Western Australia. Species determination is based on morphological, molecular and ecological similarities to the Japanese type. The species has not been recorded in other estuaries in Australia. Bunbury Port is a major exporter of woodchip to Japan and the introduction of T. hadai may have come from ballast water out of shallow-draught woodchip vessels. Small sediment samples of estuarine mud obtained at water depths of ~5 m contain abundant T. hadai (on average ~0.4 mm in adult diameter) that are easily recognised in microscopic view of the sediment surface by their bright reddish-brown colour. The collection of sediment samples from the estuarine floor and ballast water, and the examination of these for foraminifers, may provide a useful indicator in estuaries for the possible presence of other exotic species, particularly in the vicinity of ports.

Evolutions in estuary governance? Reflections and lessons from Australia, France and New Caledonia

Estuaries are cradles of life for the communities who live around and within them. They are valued in multiple ways for the services they provide to humans, including food production, recreation, water purification, navigation and amenity. Various groups of stakeholders all place different importance on these values, how their needs and practices interact, and what it means to effectively manage an estuary towards a range of desirable goals. This typically creates value conflicts over how estuaries should be managed. Navigating such conflicts requires governance arrangements and methods that allow multiple parties to find a common path forward. Using Evolutionary Governance Theory (EGT) and a hybrid analytic framework incorporating aspects of multi-level/multi-scalar governance, risk governance and territorial intelligence theory, this paper explores the (co-)evolution of governance processes by analysing lessons learnt from action in and observation of estuaries in Australia (Lower Hawkesbury), France (Thau) and New Caledonia (Thio). A multi-method research approach to data collection was used and comparative analysis across the three estuaries undertaken to understand the evolutions in each of their governance systems. From this analysis, several reflections and lessons for the governance of other land-sea systems emerge on: the importance of boundary organisations and boundary negotiations in re-defining integrated approaches to land-sea governance; how particular information systems or models, as well as discourses from other key actors shape co-evolutions of estuarine governance; and that risks or shocks still appear to be the catalysers of new forms of collective action and major reconfigurations and evolutions of estuarine governance.

Non-conservative Behavior of Dissolved Organic Matter and Trace Metals (Mn, Fe, Ba) Driven by Porewater Exchange in a Subtropical Mangrove-Estuary

Estuaries play a key role in controlling the land-ocean fluxes of dissolved organic matter (DOM), nutrients and trace metals. Here, we study how mangrove-fringed areas affect the molecular DOM and trace metal composition in a subtropical estuary. We combined molecular analysis of solid-phase extractable (SPE) DOM using ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry with organic and inorganic bulk parameter analyses in surface and porewater along the estuarine gradient of a mangrove-fringed estuary in Australia (Coffs Creek). Statistical analysis and mixing models demonstrate that the fluvial and mangrove-porewater derived DOM and inorganic chemical species were altered and/or removed by the estuarine filter before reaching the coastal ocean. The mangrove-fringed central estuary was a net source for dissolved Mn and Ba as well as total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to the tidal creek, likely due to the exchange of mangrove-porewater strongly enriched in these constituents. Dissolved Fe was removed from the water column, probably during the tidally driven circulation of creek water through the sulfidic mangrove sediments. In the mangrove-porewater dominated tidal creek, sulfur- and nitrogen-containing as well as aromatic DOM compounds were relatively enriched, whereas phosphorous-containing DOM was relatively depleted compared to non-mangrove fringed areas. In areas with intense mixing of estuarine and marine water masses we observed a strong decrease of these DOM compounds relative to values expected from conservative mixing, suggesting their removal by photodegradation and co-precipitation with particles such as Mn(hydr)oxides and/or as organometallic complexes, leading to more aliphatic DOM signatures at the creek-mouth. Tidally driven porewater exchange and surface water runoff from the mangroves had a stronger effect on the biogeochemical cycling in the estuary than the fluvial input during a dry compared to a wet season. Our study confirms that mangroves can significantly contribute to biogeochemical budgets of (sub)tropical estuaries.

Factors controlling seasonal CO2 and CH4 emissions in three tropical mangrove-dominated estuaries in Australia

CO2 and CH4 emissions from estuaries of the Southern Hemisphere are greatly under-represented in global estuary emission estimates. This study quantifies seasonal pCO2 and CH4 concentrations and emissions along the salinity gradient of three tropical mangrove-dominated estuaries in Australia. A combination of approaches (i.e. carbon stable isotopes, groundwater inputs, riverine contribution, freshwater flushing times) was used to assess the spatial and seasonal variable factors that controlled the estuary surface water CO2 and CH4 concentrations and hence emissions. Overall, CO2 and CH4 emissions ranged from 21.6 to 110.4 mmol m−2 d−1 and 40.3 to 1047.1 μmol m−2 d−1, respectively, and were within or at the high end compared to estuaries in Australia and globally. In the Johnstone River estuary, high emissions were predominantly driven by groundwater and riverine carbon inputs with exports of CO2 and CH4 to the ocean expected in the wet season. In the Fitzroy River estuary and Constant Creek estuary, in situ production and terrestrial carbon inputs were likely the main factors controlling CO2 and CH4 emissions. The contribution of riverine CO2 may be more important to overall CO2 emissions than the riverine CH4 to overall CH4 emissions in estuaries. The relative contribution of in situ production, the exchange with adjacent coastal habitats (i.e. mangroves, inter-tidal flats), and terrestrial, riverine and groundwater inputs in the wet and in the dry season determined whether CO2 and CH4 were fully ventilated within the estuaries or exported to the open ocean. The revised global estimate for estuary CO2 emission of the latitude 0 to 23.5 °S is 52.1 ± 16.1 mmol m−2 d−1, which is 15% higher than a recent estimate of this latitudinal region.

An experimental assessment of impacts of pollution sources on sessile biota in a temperate urbanised estuary

Populations of macro-algae and sessile invertebrates have precipitously declined in urbanised coastal waters in Australia since European occupation. Responses of healthy subtidal sessile assemblages to cumulative impacts and types of urban impacts were measured in one of the most polluted estuaries in Australia - the Derwent Estuary - by transplanting sessile communities established on pavers to locations adjacent to marinas, sewerage outfalls, fish farm cages, and stormwater discharges, each with associated controls. Reef communities translocated to sites adjacent to central urban pollution sources (within 5 km of Hobart) lost canopy-forming algae. Fish farms, marinas, and storm water drains were all characterised by higher filamentous algal cover than their controls. Marinas were associated with losses in canopy and foliose algae. Restoration of subtidal reef near highly urbanised areas is unlikely to be successful until current pollution levels are dramatically reduced.

A novel framework for the use of remote sensing for monitoring catchments at continental scales

Historical ecology can teach us valuable lessons on the processes and drivers of environmental change that can inform future monitoring priorities and management strategies. Environmental data to study environmental history, however, is often absent or of low quality. Even when studying changes occurring during the last few decades, monitoring efforts are scarce due to logistical and cost limitations, leaving large areas unassessed. The aim of this study is to evaluate the use of estuarine water colour as an indicator of historical environmental change in catchments. Water colour change was assessed in estuaries in Australia from 1987 to 2015 using satellite remote sensing. Random points were selected for each estuary and applied to the Australian Geoscience Data Cube (based on Landsat images) to obtain reflectance data through time. We propose a framework where (i) water colour is used to detect historical changes in catchments using generalised additive models, (ii) possible stressors and pressures driving those changes are evaluated using other available historical data, and (iii) lessons learned inform appropriate monitoring and management actions. This framework represents a novel approach to generate historical data for large-scale assessments of environmental change at catchment level, even in poorly studied areas.

Uranium export from a sandy beach subterranean estuary in Australia

Few studies exist on the contribution of subterranean estuaries (STEs) to the oceanic uranium (U) budget. Here, we estimate the dissolved U fluxes out of a quartz sand STE located on the east coast of Australia. Our results indicate that the advective flow of seawater in permeable sands enhances cycling of U in the STE. Dissolved U concentrations ranged from 25 nM in the STE to an effective zero salinity end-member of 3.8 nM in the surface estuary. The dissolved U (salinity corrected) concentrations were positively correlated to Fe (r2 = 0.49 p < 0.001) during a shallow beach time series experiment. These results indicate that reductive dissolution of Fe oxides may be an important process maintaining high concentrations of U in shallow permeable sand STEs. The U export rates from the STE to the surface estuary in this study were estimated to be 1.8 μmol U m−2 day−1 based on shallow saline groundwater exchange pathways and 0.4 μmol U m−2 day−1 based on deep fresh submarine groundwater discharge (SGD). Uranium's behavior in STEs is diverse and site specific. Out of the seven investigations available here and in the literature, three suggested a SGD-derived U source to the coastal ocean, while four suggested a U sink within STEs removing seawater U. Therefore, it remains unclear whether SGD is a source or sink of U to the ocean and additional investigations in contrasting settings are required to resolve the global contribution of SGD to the marine U cycle.

Shifting nitrous oxide source/sink behaviour in a subtropical estuary revealed by automated time series observations

The oceans are a major source of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere. However, little information is available on how estuaries and the coastal ocean may contribute to N2O budgets, and on the drivers of N2O in aquatic environments. This study utilised five time series stations along the freshwater to marine continuum in a sub-tropical estuary in Australia (Coffs Creek, Australia). Each time series station captured N2O, radon (222Rn, a natural submarine groundwater discharge tracer), dissolved nitrogen, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations for a minimum of 25 h. The use of automated time series observations enabled spatial and tidal-scale variability of N2O to be captured. Groundwater was highly enriched in N2O (up to 306 nM) compared to the receiving surface water. Dissolved N2O supersaturation as high as 386% (27.4 nM) was observed in the upstream freshwater and brackish water areas which represented only a small (∼13%) proportion of the total estuary area. A large area of N2O undersaturation (as low as 53% or 3.9 nM) was observed in the mangrove-dominated lower estuary. This undersaturated area likely resulted from N2O consumption due to nitrate/nitrite (NOx) limitation in mangrove sediments subject to shallow porewater exchange. Overall, the estuary was a minor source of N2O to the atmosphere as the lower mangrove-dominated estuary sink of N2O counteracted groundwater-dominated source of N2O in the upper estuary. Average area-weighted N2O fluxes at the water-air interface approached zero (0.2–0.7 μmol m−2 d−1, depending on piston velocity model used), and were much lower than nitrogen-rich Northern Hemisphere estuaries that are considered large sources of N2O to the atmosphere. This study revealed a temporally and spatially diverse estuary, with areas of N2O production and consumption related to oxygen and total dissolved nitrogen availability, submarine groundwater discharge, and uptake within mangroves.

Diet overlap and resource partitioning among three forage fish species in Coorong, the largest inverse estuary in Australia

Protracted drought in southern Australia has degraded the system function of the Coorong estuary and intensified resource competition among forage fish species. The present study investigates the gut content, prey composition and dietary overlap of three forage fishes: smallmouth hardyhead (Atherinosoma microstoma), Tamar River goby (Afurcagobius tamarensis) and sandy sprat (Hyperlophus vittatus) influenced by environmental variation in the Murray Estuary and Coorong. The prey species identified in fish stomachs were dominated by crustaceans (amphipods, ostracods and harpacticoids), but nematodes and acanthocephalans were also common in all forage fishes. The diet of the sandy sprat and Tamar River goby highly overlapped (α = 0.8) in the Murray Estuary and all three forage fishes showed potential diet overlap (α ≥ 0.6) in the North Lagoon. Spatiotemporal variation of prey diversity was observed in smallmouth hardyhead while temporal variation of prey diversity was observed in sandy sprat and Tamar River goby. Overall, the prey abundance was temporally variable and predominantly regulated by salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, water transparency and chlorophyll a in the Murray Estuary and Coorong. This study adds to our knowledge on dietary overlap and resource partitioning among small-bodied forage fishes mediated by environmental factors in the Murray Estuary and Coorong.

Drivers of sulfide intrusion in Zostera muelleri in a moderately affected estuary in south-eastern Australia

The seagrass Zostera muelleri Irmisch ex Asch. is abundant in estuaries in Australia and is under pressure from coastal developments. We studied sulfide intrusion in Z. muelleri along a gradient of anthropogenic impact at five stations in the Wallis Lake estuary, Australia. Results showed differences in sediment biogeochemical conditions, seagrass metrics as well as nutrient content and sulfide intrusion along the gradient from the lower estuary (affected) to the lagoon (unaffected). Sulfide intrusion was driven by complex interactions and related to changes in seagrass morphology and sediment biogeochemistry and was modified by the exposure to wind and wave action. The sediments in the lower estuary had high contributions from phytoplanktonic detritus, whereas the organic pools in the lagoon were dominated by seagrass detritus. Despite high concentrations of organic matter, sulfide intrusion was lower at stations dominated by seagrass detritus, probably because of lower sulfide pressure from the less labile nature of organic matter. Porewater diffusive gradients in thin-film (DGT) sulfide samplers showed efficient sulfide reoxidation in the rhizosphere, with high sulfur incorporation in the plants from sedimentary sulfides being likely due to sulfate uptake from reoxidised sulfide. This is a unique adaptation of Z. muelleri, which allows high productivity in estuarine sediments.

Spatial and temporal variability of CO2and CH4gas transfer velocities and quantification of the CH4microbubble flux in mangrove dominated estuaries

AbstractGas transfer velocities (k) of CO2and CH4were determined from 209 deployments of a newly designed floating chamber in six mangrove dominated estuaries in Australia and the United States to estimate mangrove system specifick.k600‐CO2andk600‐CH4(knormalized to the Schmidt number of 600) varied greatly within and between mangrove creeks, ranging from 0.9 cm h−1to 28.3 cm h−1. The gas transfer velocity correlated well with current velocity at all study sites suggesting current generated turbulence was the main driver controllingk. An empirical relationship that accounts for current velocity and a linearly additive contribution of wind speed and water depth was a good predictor ofk600‐CO2(R2 = 0.67) andk600‐CH4(R2 = 0.57) in the mangrove creeks in Australia. In a side‐by‐side study, good agreement was found betweenkdetermined from this new floating chamber and a3He/SF6dual tracer release experiment (∼5% discrepancy).k600‐CH4correlated well withk600‐CO2(R2 = 0.81), however,k600‐CH4was on average 1.2 times higher thank600‐CO2, most likely reflecting a microbubble flux contribution. The microbubble flux contributed up to 73% of the total CH4flux and was best predicted by a model that included CH4supersaturation, temperature, and current velocity. A large overestimation was found for both CO2and CH4fluxes when calculated using empirically derivedkmodels from previous studies in estuaries. The high temporal and spatial variabilities ofkCO2andkCH4highlights the importance of site specific transfer velocity measurements in dynamic ecosystems such as mangrove estuaries.

The biology of environmental stress: molecular biomarkers in Sydney rock oysters (Saccostrea glomerata).

This review describes our recent work on environmental stress in Sydney rock oysters, focusing on the identification of molecular biomarkers for ecotoxicological analysis. We begin by describing the environmental pressures facing coastal estuaries in Australia, with particular reference to Sydney Harbour. After providing that context, we summarise our transcriptional and proteomic analyses of Sydney rock oysters responding to chemical contamination and other forms of environmental stress. This work has shown that the intracellular processes of oysters are highly responsive to environmental threats. Our data agree with the broader literature, which suggests that there is a highly conserved intracellular stress response in oysters involving a limited number of biological processes. We conclude that many effective molecular markers for environmental biomonitoring are likely to lie within these biological pathways.

Drought and flood effects on macrobenthic communities in the estuary of Australia's largest river system

Estuaries are prone to drought and flood events, which can vary in frequency and intensity depending on water management and climate change. We investigated effects of two different drought and flow situations, including a four year long drought (referred to as Millennium drought) and a major flood event, on the macrobenthic community in the estuary and coastal lagoon of the Murray Mouth and Coorong, where freshwater inflows are strictly regulated. The analysis is based on ten years of annual monitoring of benthic communities and environmental conditions in sediment and water. The objectives were to identify changes in diversity, abundance, biomass and distribution, as well as community shifts and environmental drivers for the respective responses. The Millennium drought led to decreased taxonomic richness, abundance and biomass of macrobenthos as hypersaline conditions developed and water levels dropped. More taxa were found under very high salinities than predicted from the Remane diagram. When a flood event broke the Millennium drought, recovery took longer than from a shorter drought followed by small flows. A flow index was developed to assess the biological response subject to the duration of the preceding drought and flow volumes. The index showed higher taxonomic richness, abundance and biomass at intermediate and more continuous flow conditions. Abundance increased quickly after flows were restored, but the benthic community was initially composed of small bodied organisms and biomass increased only after several years once larger organisms became more abundant. Individual densities and constancy of distribution dropped during the drought for almost all macrobenthic taxa, but recoveries after the flood were taxon specific. Distinct benthic communities were detected over time before and after the drought and flood events, and spatially, as the benthic community in the hypersaline Coorong was split off with a salinity threshold of 64 identified by LINKTREE analysis. Salinity, low dissolved oxygen saturation and sediment properties accounted for further community splits in the estuarine Murray Mouth. This long term monitoring revealed ecological benefits of intermediate and continuous flow and that resilience of estuarine macrobenthos to drought and flood events was affected by flow history. The index can be applied to other flow regulated estuaries and inform environmental watering targets.

Age validation, growth and population characteristics of greenback flounder (Rhombosolea tapirina) in a large temperate estuary

The greenback flounder (Rhombosolea tapirina) is an important fishery species in southern Australia and New Zealand, whose demographic processes are poorly understood. This study developed an ageing protocol based on otolith interpretation and provided estimates of age-based data for an exploited population in the estuary of Australia's largest river system. The otoliths fulfilled three criteria that established their usefulness for ageing. Estimates of size and age were used to generate von Bertalanffy growth curves for male and female fish sampled from two areas within the estuary. There were no differences in growth between the sexes, despite the strong bias in number towards female fish. Spatial differences in growth were marginal. Populations involved only a few young age classes. Such truncation may relate to the fishery, to movement of older fish out of the system, or to recent poor environmental conditions limiting spawning and early life survivorship.

Trace metal biogeochemistry in mangrove ecosystems: A comparative assessment of acidified (by acid sulfate soils) and non-acidified sites

The generation of acidity and subsequent mobilization of toxic metals induced by acid sulfate soils (ASSs) are known to cause severe environmental damage to many coastal wetlands and estuaries of Australia and worldwide. Mangrove ecosystems serve to protect coastal environments, but are increasingly threatened from such ASS-induced acidification due to variable hydrological conditions (i.e., inundation–desiccation cycles). However, the impact of such behaviors on trace metal distribution, bio-availability and accumulation in mangrove tissues, i.e., leaves and pneumatophores, are largely unknown. In this study, we examined how ASS-induced acidifications controlled trace metal distribution and bio-availability in gray mangrove (Avicennia marina) soils and in tissues in the Kooragang wetland, New South Wales, Australia. We collected mangrove soils, leaves and pneumatophores from a part of the wetland acidified from ASS (i.e., an affected site) for detailed biogeochemical studies. The results were compared with samples collected from a natural intertidal mangrove forest (i.e., a control site) located within the same wetland. Soil pH (mean: 5.90) indicated acidic conditions in the affected site, whereas pH was near-neutral (mean: 7.17) in the control site. The results did not show statistically significant differences in near-total and bio-available metal concentrations, except for Fe and Mn, between affected and control sites. Iron concentrations were significantly (p values≤0.001) greater in the affected site, whereas Mn concentrations were significantly (p values≤0.001) greater in the control site. However, large proportions of near-total metals were potentially bio-available in control sites. Concentrations of Fe and Ni were significantly (p values≤0.001) greater in leaves and pneumatophores of the affected sites, whereas Mn, Cu, Pb and Zn were greater in control sites. The degree of metal bio-accumulation in leaves and pneumatophores suggest contrasting hydrological behaviors and near-surface geochemical conditions favoring differential metal uptake by mangrove plants in the two sites.

Scenarios involving future climate and water extraction: ecosystem states in the estuary of Australia's largest river

Management of natural resources, particularly water, increasingly requires that likely benefits of particular actions (e.g., allocating an environmental flow) are quantified in advance. Therefore, new techniques are required that enable those potential benefits to be objectively compared among competing options for management (e.g., compared to a "do nothing" scenario). Scenario modeling is one method for developing such an objective comparison. We used existing hydrologic, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem response models for a case study location, the Coorong, an inverse estuary in South Australia, to illustrate the potential for such scenario modeling to inform natural resource management. We modeled a set of 12 scenarios that included different levels of water extraction, potential future climate change, and sea-level change, thereby enabling a comparison of the different drivers of possible future reductions in water availability in the Coorong. We discovered that potential future climate change combined with current extraction levels has the capacity to devastate the ecology of the Coorong, but also that much of the degradation could be averted by reducing upstream extractions of water. The inclusion of possible sea-level change had a surprising effect, whereby higher sea levels increased hydrodynamic connectivity between the Coorong's two lagoons. Increased hydrodynamic connectivity limited the occurrence of extremely low water levels and high salinities due to evapoconcentration that were simulated for dry future climates in the absence of sea-level rise. These findings strongly suggest that future ecological degradation in the Coorong is not a foregone conclusion, and that management decisions regarding water allocations upstream will determine the ecological future of this coastal lagoon.