Estimator Of Quadratic Variation Research Articles

High-dimensional estimation of quadratic variation based on penalized realized variance

In this paper, we develop a penalized realized variance (PRV) estimator of the quadratic variation (QV) of a high-dimensional continuous Itô semimartingale. We adapt the principle idea of regularization from linear regression to covariance estimation in a continuous-time high-frequency setting. We show that under a nuclear norm penalization, the PRV is computed by soft-thresholding the eigenvalues of realized variance (RV). It therefore encourages sparsity of singular values or, equivalently, low rank of the solution. We prove our estimator is minimax optimal up to a logarithmic factor. We derive a concentration inequality, which reveals that the rank of PRV is—with a high probability—the number of non-negligible eigenvalues of the QV. Moreover, we also provide the associated non-asymptotic analysis for the spot variance. We suggest an intuitive data-driven subsampling procedure to select the shrinkage parameter. Our theory is supplemented by a simulation study and an empirical application. The PRV detects about three–five factors in the equity market, with a notable rank decrease during times of distress in financial markets. This is consistent with most standard asset pricing models, where a limited amount of systematic factors driving the cross-section of stock returns are perturbed by idiosyncratic errors, rendering the QV—and also RV—of full rank.

High-Dimensional Estimation of Quadratic Variation Based on Penalized Realized Variance

In this paper, we develop a penalized realized variance (PRV) estimator of the quadratic variation (QV) of a high-dimensional continuous Ito semimartingale. We adapt the principle idea of regularization from linear regression to covariance estimation in a continuous-time high-frequency setting. We show that under a nuclear norm penalization, the PRV is computed by soft-thresholding the eigenvalues of realized variance (RV). It therefore encourages sparsity of singular values or, equivalently, low rank of the solution. We prove our estimator is minimax optimal up to a logarithmic factor. We derive a concentration inequality, which reveals that the rank of PRV is-with a high probability-the number of non-negligible eigenvalues of the QV. Moreover, we also provide the associated non-asymptotic analysis for the spot variance. We suggest an intuitive data-driven bootstrap procedure to select the shrinkage parameter. Our theory is supplemented by a simulation study and an empirical application. The PRV detects about three-five factors in the equity market, with a notable rank decrease during times of distress in financial markets. This is consistent with most standard asset pricing models, where a limited amount of systematic factors driving the cross-section of stock returns are perturbed by idiosyncratic errors, rendering the QV-and also RV-of full rank.

NOISY HIGH FREQUENCY DATA-BASED ESTIMATION OF VOLATILITY FUNCTION WITH APPLICATIONS

Diffusion models have been widely used to describe the stochastic dynamics of the underlying economic variables. Renò ( 2008 ) introduced a nonparametric estimator of the volatility function, which is based on the estimation of quadratic variation between observations by means of realized variance. However, they may be misleading when one uses intraday data to implement directly the estimator, because intraday data display microstructure effects that could seriously distort the estimation. To filter out the impact of microstructure noise on the estimation of the volatility function, in this paper we propose an improved estimator when there is microstructure noise in the observed price. Also, we show that the proposed estimator has the same asymptotic properties as the Renò estimator when the step of discretization inclines to zero. Some simulations and empirical applications on Shanghai Stock Exchange data from March 3, 2002 to December 31, 2008 are used to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator.

Nonparametric estimation of quadratic variation using high‐frequency data

Estimating the quadratic variation (QV) using high‐frequency financial data is studied in this article, and this work makes two major contributions: first, the fundamental Itô isometry is generalized to some extent, and as an application example, the widely known convergence property of realized volatility (RV) estimator of QV is analyzed by alternatively utilizing this generalized Itô isometry; second, we intuitively establish two types of new estimators of QV which permit volatility varying with time. To construct such estimators, the RV combined with realized bipower variation and RV with realized quarticity are employed, respectively. By applying the generalized Itô isometry, we further show that each of the proposed estimators can converge to QV, at a rate of O(n−1/2), almost surely and in mean square sense, both of which are stronger than the existing convergence in probability. Moreover, the error of approximation is also provided for each estimation. In addition, the obtained convergence property for both types of estimators is demonstrated by empirical investigations based on high‐frequency data of IBM stock.

Edgeworth expansion for the pre-averaging estimator

In this paper, we study the Edgeworth expansion for a pre-averaging estimator of quadratic variation in the framework of continuous diffusion models observed with noise. More specifically, we obtain a second order expansion for the joint density of the estimators of quadratic variation and its asymptotic variance. Our approach is based on martingale embedding, Malliavin calculus and stable central limit theorems for continuous diffusions. Moreover, we derive the density expansion for the studentized statistic, which might be applied to construct asymptotic confidence regions.

Asymptotic normality of randomized periodogram for estimating quadratic variation in mixed Brownian–fractional Brownian model

We study asymptotic normality of the randomized periodogram estimator of quadratic variation in the mixed Brownian--fractional Brownian model. In the semimartingale case, that is, where the Hurst parameter $H$ of the fractional part satisfies $H\in(3/4,1)$, the central limit theorem holds. In the nonsemimartingale case, that is, where $H\in(1/2,3/4]$, the convergence toward the normal distribution with a nonzero mean still holds if $H=3/4$, whereas for the other values, that is, $H\in(1/2,3/4)$, the central convergence does not take place. We also provide Berry--Esseen estimates for the estimator.

Faster Convergence to the Estimation of Quadratic Variation with Microstructure Noise

The continuous quadratic variation of asset return plays a critical role for high-frequency trading. However, the microstructure noise could bias the estimation of the continuous quadratic variation. Zhang et al. (2005) proposed a batch estimator for the continuous quadratic variation of high-frequency data in the presence of microstructure noise. It gives the estimates after all the data arrive. This article proposes a recursive version of their estimator that outputs variation estimates as the data arrive. Our estimator gives excellent estimates well before all the data arrive. Both real high-frequency futures data and simulation data confirm the performance of the recursive estimator.

Preaveraging-Based Estimation of Quadratic Variation in the Presence of Noise and Jumps: Theory, Implementation, and Empirical Evidence

This article contributes to the theory for preaveraging estimators of the daily quadratic variation of asset prices and provides novel empirical evidence. We develop asymptotic theory for preaveraging estimators in the case of autocorrelated microstructure noise and propose an explicit test for serial dependence. Moreover, we extend the theory on preaveraging estimators for processes involving jumps. We discuss several jump-robust measures and derive feasible central limit theorems for the general quadratic variation. Using transaction data of different stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange, we analyze the estimators’ sensitivity to the choice of the preaveraging bandwidth. Moreover, we investigate the dependence of preaveraging-based inference on the sampling scheme, the sampling frequency, microstructure noise properties, and the occurrence of jumps. As a result of a thorough empirical study, we provide guidance for optimal implementation of preaveraging estimators and discuss potential pitfalls in practice.

Estimating quadratic variation when quoted prices change by a constant increment

For financial assets whose best quotes almost always change by jumping by the market’s price tick size (one cent, five cents, etc.), this paper proposes an estimator of Quadratic Variation which controls for microstructure effects. It measures the prevalence of alternations, where quotes jump back to their just-previous price. It defines a simple property called “uncorrelated alternation”, which under conditions implies that the estimator is consistent in an asymptotic limit theory, where jumps become very frequent and small. Feasible limit theory is developed, and in simulations works well.

Estimating quadratic variation consistently in the presence of endogenous and diurnal measurement error

Abstract We propose an econometric model that captures the effects of market microstructure on a latent price process. In particular, we allow for correlation between the measurement error and the return process and we allow the measurement error process to have a diurnal heteroskedasticity. We propose a modification of the TSRV estimator of quadratic variation. We show that this estimator is consistent, with a rate of convergence that depends on the size of the measurement error, but is no worse than n − 1 / 6 . We investigate in simulation experiments the finite sample performance of various proposed implementations.

Estimation of quadratic variation for two-parameter diffusions

In this paper we give a central limit theorem for the weighted quadratic variation process of a two-parameter Brownian motion. As an application, we show that the discretized quadratic variations ∑ i = 1 [ n s ] ∑ j = 1 [ n t ] | Δ i , j Y | 2 of a two-parameter diffusion Y = ( Y ( s , t ) ) ( s , t ) ∈ [ 0 , 1 ] 2 observed on a regular grid G n form an asymptotically normal estimator of the quadratic variation of Y as n goes to infinity.

NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF THE DIFFUSION COEFFICIENT OF STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS

In this paper, new fully nonparametric estimators of the diffusion coefficient of continuous time models are introduced. The estimators are based on Fourier analysis of the state variable trajectory observed and on the estimation of quadratic variation between observations by means of realized volatility. The estimators proposed are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Moreover, the Fourier estimator can be iterated to get a fully nonparametric estimate of the diffusion coefficient in a bivariate model in which one state variable is the volatility of the other. The estimators are shown to be unbiased in small samples using Monte Carlo simulations and are used to estimate univariate and bivariate models for interest rates.

Rejoinder (To Comments on Realized Variance and Market Microstructure Noise)

This rejoinder clarifies issues related to the features of market microstructure noise. Specifically, we show that pre-processing of high-frequency data is very useful for the estimation of quadratic variation. We also document a strong relationship between quadratic variation and the number of transactions.

Estimating Quadratic Variation When Quoted Prices Change By A Constant Increment

For financial assets whose best quotes almost always change by jumping by the market's price tick size (one cent, five cents, etc.), this paper proposes an estimator of Quadratic Variation which controls for microstructure effects. It measures the prevalence of 'alternations', where quotes jump back to their just-previous price. It defines a simple property called 'uncorrelated alternation', which under conditions implies that the estimator is consistent in an asymptotic limit theory, where jumps become very frequent and small. Feasible limit theory is developed, and in simulations works well.

Estimating quadratic variation using realized variance

AbstractThis paper looks at some recent work on estimating quadratic variation using realized variance (RV)—that is, sums ofMsquared returns. This econometrics has been motivated by the advent of the common availability of high‐frequency financial return data. When the underlying process is a semimartingale we recall the fundamental result that RV is a consistent (asM→ ∞) estimator of quadratic variation (QV). We express concern that without additional assumptions it seems difficult to give any measure of uncertainty of the RV in this context. The position dramatically changes when we work with a rather general SV model—which is a special case of the semimartingale model. Then QV is integrated variance and we can derive the asymptotic distribution of the RV and its rate of convergence. These results do not require us to specify a model for either the drift or volatility functions, although we have to impose some weak regularity assumptions. We illustrate the use of the limit theory on some exchange rate data and some stock data. We show that even with large values ofMthe RV is sometimes a quite noisy estimator of integrated variance. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.