Vaccine Effectiveness Estimates Research Articles

Monovalent XBB.1.5 COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisations and deaths during the omicron BA.2.86/JN.1 period among older adults in seven European countries: a VEBIS-EHR network study

ABSTRACT Background We aimed to estimate XBB.1.5 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths during BA.2.86/JN.1 predominance, among EU/EEA individuals with ≥ 65-years. Research design and methods We linked electronic health records to create historical cohorts in Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Navarre (Spain), Norway, Portugal and Sweden. We included individuals aged ≥ 65-years eligible for the autumnal 2023 COVID-19 vaccine. Follow-up started when ≥ 80% of country-specific sequenced viruses were BA.2.86/JN.1 (4/dec/23 to 08/jan/24) and ended 25 February 2024. At study site level, we estimated the vaccine confounder-adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths between individuals with ≥14 days after vaccination versus unvaccinated in autumn 2023, overall, by time since vaccination and age groups. VE was estimated as (1-pooled aHR)x100 with a random-effects model. Results XBB.1.5 VE against COVID-19 hospitalizations was 50% (95%CI: 45 to 55) and 41% (95%CI: 35 to 46) in 65-79-year-olds and in ≥ 80-year-olds respectively. VE against COVID19-related-death was 58% (95%CI: 42 to 69) and 48% (95%CI: 38 to 57), respectively, in both age groups. VE estimates against each outcome declined in all age groups over time. Conclusion Monovalent XBB.1.5 vaccine had a moderate protective effect against severe and fatal COVID-19 likely caused by BA.2.86/JN.1 during the 2023/2024 winter, among persons aged ≥ 65.

The Impact of the U.S. Maternal Tdap Vaccination Program on Preventing Pertussis in Infants 2-<6 Months of Age: A Case-control Evaluation

Abstract Background To protect infants aged <2 months against pertussis, the United States recommends Tdap (tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis) vaccination during each pregnancy. Data are limited on the strategy’s effectiveness against pertussis in infants aged ≥2 months. Methods Pertussis cases aged 2-<6 months with cough onset between 1/1/2011-12/31/2014 were identified in six U.S. states. Controls were 2-<6 months of age, hospital-matched, and selected by birth certificate. Mothers were interviewed to collect demographic and healthcare information. Provider-verified vaccination history was obtained for infants and mothers. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were calculated using conditional logistic regression; overall vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated as (1 - aOR) x 100. To describe maternal Tdap VE modified by infant DTaP (diphtheria and tetanus toxoids, and acellular pertussis) doses, case-control sets were unmatched and a time-to-event analysis conducted through a Generalized Linear Mixed Model. Results A total of 335 cases and 927 controls were enrolled. The overall adjusted VE estimate for Tdap during pregnancy was 45.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.8% – 68.5%) and increased slightly, but not significantly against infant hospitalization (55.7% (-116.8% – 90.9%)). Although point estimates were not significant, VE was modified by infant DTaP doses (58.8% (-6.0% – 84.0%) for zero DTaP doses, 30.5% (-21.4% – 60.2%) for one DTaP dose, and 3.2% (-170.8% – 65.4%) for two DTaP doses). Conclusions Our study suggests that there is some benefit of maternal Tdap vaccination beyond the first two months of life, however, on-time vaccination of infants remains critical to maintain protection from pertussis.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 XBB vaccine in the US Veterans Affairs Healthcare System

Data evaluating effectiveness of XBB.1.5-adapted vaccines against JN.1-related endpoints are scarce. This nationwide test-negative case-control study within the US Veterans Affairs Healthcare System aims to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) of BNT162b2 XBB.1.5-adapted vaccine compared to not receiving an XBB vaccine of any kind against COVID-19 hospitalization, emergency department or urgent care visits (ED/UC), and outpatient visits. Between September 25, 2023 and January 31, 2024, effectiveness was 24–35% during a period of JN.1 predominance and 50–61% during XBB predominance across all outcomes. VE within 60 days of vaccination during the likely JN.1 period was 32% (95% confidence interval 3–52%) against hospitalization, 41% (23–54%) against ED/UC visits, and 31% (1–52%) against outpatient visits. Corresponding VE during the likely XBB period was 62% (44–74%), 52% (37–63%), and 50% (25–66%) by setting, respectively. Here, we show the importance of strain match to maximize the public health impact of COVID-19 vaccination.

Effectiveness of Original Monovalent and Bivalent COVID-19 Vaccines Against COVID-19-Associated Hospitalization and Severe In-Hospital Outcomes Among Adults in the United States, September 2022-August 2023.

Assessments of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness are needed to monitor the protection provided by updated vaccines against severe COVID-19. We evaluated the effectiveness of original monovalent and bivalent (ancestral strain and Omicron BA.4/5) COVID-19 vaccination against COVID-19-associated hospitalization and severe in-hospital outcomes. During September 8, 2022 to August 31, 2023, adults aged ≥ 18 years hospitalized with COVID-19-like illness were enrolled at 26 hospitals in 20 US states. Using a test-negative case-control design, we estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) with multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, admission date, and geographic region. Among 7028 patients, 2924 (41.6%) were COVID-19 case patients, and 4104 (58.4%) were control patients. Compared to unvaccinated patients, absolute VE against COVID-19-associated hospitalization was 6% (-7%-17%) for original monovalent doses only (median time since last dose [IQR] = 421 days [304-571]), 52% (39%-61%) for a bivalent dose received 7-89 days earlier, and 13% (-10%-31%) for a bivalent dose received 90-179 days earlier. Absolute VE against COVID-19-associated invasive mechanical ventilation or death was 51% (34%-63%) for original monovalent doses only, 61% (35%-77%) for a bivalent dose received 7-89 days earlier, and 50% (11%-71%) for a bivalent dose received 90-179 days earlier. Bivalent vaccination provided protection against COVID-19-associated hospitalization and severe in-hospital outcomes within 3 months of receipt, followed by a decline in protection to a level similar to that remaining from previous original monovalent vaccination by 3-6 months. These results underscore the benefit of remaining up to date with recommended COVID-19 vaccines.

Biases in COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness studies using cohort design.

Observational studies on COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) have provided critical real-world data, informing public health policy globally. These studies, primarily using pre-existing data sources, have been indispensable in assessing VE across diverse populations and developing sustainable vaccination strategies. Cohort design is frequently employed in VE research. The rapid implementation of vaccination campaigns during the COVID-19 pandemic introduced differential vaccination influenced by sociodemographic disparities, public policies, perceived risks, health-promoting behaviors, and health status, potentially resulting in biases such as healthy user bias, healthy vaccinee effect, frailty bias, differential depletion of susceptibility bias, and confounding by indication. The overwhelming burden on healthcare systems has escalated the risk of data inaccuracies, leading to outcome misclassifications. Additionally, the extensive array of diagnostic tests used during the pandemic has also contributed to misclassification biases. The urgency to publish quickly may have further influenced these biases or led to their oversight, affecting the validity of the findings. These biases in studies vary considerably depending on the setting, data sources, and analytical methods and are likely more pronounced in low- and middle-income country (LMIC) settings due to inadequate data infrastructure. Addressing and mitigating these biases is essential for accurate VE estimates, guiding public health strategies, and sustaining public trust in vaccination programs. Transparent communication about these biases and rigorous improvement in the design of future observational studies are essential.

Estimated number of COVID-19 deaths averted by vaccination in Belgium

Abstract Background Vaccination campaigns have been rolled out globally to limit the impact of COVID-19 on severe health outcomes, including mortality. We aimed to estimate the number of averted deaths by COVID-19 vaccination in the Belgian population aged ≥65 years, between January 2021 and January 2023. Methods Nationwide data on COVID-19 infections, vaccinations and all-cause mortality were individually linked. We estimated Vaccine Effectiveness against COVID-19 mortality (VE) in persons having received a vaccine dose in the last 6 months using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for age, sex, time since vaccination, previous infection, comorbidities, province and income. COVID-19 death was defined as a death within 1-7 weeks after a positive SARS-CoV-2 laboratory-test. Based on obtained VE estimates, vaccine coverage and national COVID-19 mortality data, we estimated the number of averted deaths (expected deaths without vaccinating minus the reported deaths). Results By January 31st 2023, 11,033 COVID-19 deaths have been reported in Belgium. The average vaccine coverage was 48% during alpha, 85% during delta and 63% during omicron dominance. VE was estimated at 0-59 days after vaccination, for 65-79 year and ≥80 year-olds respectively, at 65% (58%-60%) and 35% (28%-41%) during Alpha, at 84% (82%-87%) and 79% (77%-81%) during Delta and at 83% (80%-85%) and 71% (68%-73%) during Omicron dominance. We estimated 10,042 deaths averted (range: 8,917-11,188) among the Belgian population aged ≥65 years, representing a 48% reduction (range 45%-50%) in the expected deaths. Out of 10,042 averted deaths, the majority was averted during Delta (47%; 4,670) or Omicron dominance (43%; 4,366), compared to during Alpha dominance (10%; 1,006). Conclusions Vaccinating against COVID-19 led to an important reduction in COVID-19-related mortality among the Belgian population ≥65 years, in particular during Delta and Omicron dominance, underscoring the effectiveness of vaccines against mortality. Key messages • Vaccinating against COVID-19 led to an important reduction of 48% in COVID-19-related mortality among the Belgian population ≥65 years, in particular during Delta and Omicron dominance. • Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 mortality was estimated as high in the Belgian population ≥65 years (range: 71-84%) during Delta and Omicron dominance, also among elderly over 80 years.

Estimating the impact of the COVID-19 vaccination programme in Ireland: December 2021-March 2023

Abstract Background In Autumn 2023, COVID-19 booster vaccines were offered to all those aged ≥50 years in Ireland. There was concern that vaccine fatigue would impact uptake. We aimed to quantify the direct impact of the COVID-19 vaccination programme on averted outcomes in individuals aged ≥50 years, during a period of Omicron variant dominance, to inform vaccination strategy and public health communication. Methods We conducted a retrospective observational study from December 2021 to March 2023 in Ireland. We considered as averted outcomes symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 presentations to primary care, emergency department (ED) presentations, hospitalisations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths due to COVID-19. We used an adapted formula from other vaccine impact published studies, including national data on notified outcomes, vaccine coverage data and vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates, sourced from the WHO’s live systematic VE review, to estimate the count and prevented fraction of outcomes in ≥ 50-year-olds averted by the COVID-19 vaccination programme. The number of expected outcomes in the absence of vaccination was calculated by summing the counts of outcomes observed and outcomes averted. Results Between December 2021 and March 2023, the COVID-19 vaccination programme averted 48,551 symptomatic presentations to primary care (36% of expected), 9,517 ED presentations (53% of expected), 102,160 hospitalisations (81% of expected), 3,303 ICU admissions (89% of expected) and 15,985 deaths (87% of expected). Conclusions During Omicron dominance, the COVID-19 vaccination programme averted symptomatic and severe outcomes, including deaths due to COVID-19, underscoring the benefits of COVID-19 vaccination. In the context of vaccine fatigue emerging as an important public health issue in Ireland and internationally, these findings can inform future COVID-19 booster vaccination programmes and communication about the reason for and importance of COVID-19 vaccination. Key messages • The COVID-19 vaccination programme in Ireland prevented illness and death in people aged ≥50-years. Vaccination therefore protected population health and the healthcare system. • These findings can be used to inform future COVID-19 vaccination policies, planning for winter, pandemic preparedness and communisation about the importance of ongoing COVID-19 vaccination programmes.

Human papillomavirus vaccine to prevent CIN3 or worse (CIN3+): A nationwide case-control study in Japan.

An increase in cervical cancer incidence has been reported in Japan. The Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare of Japan has resumed the active recommendation of regular HPV vaccines in 2022. In Japan, the preventive effect of CIN3+ in the real world has not yet been demonstrated in age-adjusted cohort or case-control studies. This study aimed to estimate the effect of the HPV vaccine against CIN3+ in Japanese women. This nationwide case-control study from April 2013 to March 2020 targeted women aged 20-26 years old at the time of cervical screening. We compared HPV vaccination exposure between those with abnormal and those with normal cytology. Abnormal cytology was classified into cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)1+, CIN2+, and CIN3+. We calculated the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of the above endpoints and vaccination exposure using the conditional logistic regression model and estimated vaccine effectiveness using the formula (1 -OR) × 100. A total of 2790 cases and 13,990 controls (one-to-five matching) were eligible in 37 municipalities in Japan. In this study, 61 CIN3 (2.2%) and 10 squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) (0.4%) were found. The OR for CIN3+ versus controls was 0.14 (95% CI, 0.03-0.75), equating to a vaccine effectiveness of 86%. Of the 10 patients who had SCC none were vaccinated. This nationwide case-control study in Japan demonstrated a substantial risk reduction in CIN3+ among women who did versus those who did not receive HPV vaccination.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against Illness and Asymptomatic Infection in 2022-2023: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Previous estimates of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against asymptomatic influenza virus infection based on seroconversion have varied widely and may be biased. We estimated 2022-2023 influenza VE against illness and asymptomatic infection in a prospective cohort. In the HEROES-RECOVER cohort, adults at increased occupational risk of influenza exposure across 7 US sites provided weekly symptom reports and nasal swabs for reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) influenza testing. Laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections were classified as symptomatic (≥1 symptom) or asymptomatic during the week of testing. Participants reported demographic information and vaccination through surveys; most sites verified vaccination through medical record and immunization registry review. Person-time was calculated as days from the site-specific influenza season start (September-October 2022) through date of infection, study withdrawal, or season end (May 2023). We compared influenza incidence among vaccinated versus unvaccinated participants overall, by symptom status, and by influenza A subtype, using Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for site and occupation. We estimated VE as (1 - adjusted hazard ratio) × 100%. In total, 269 of 3785 (7.1%) participants had laboratory-confirmed influenza, including 263 (98%) influenza A virus infections and 201 (75%) symptomatic illnesses. Incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza illness among vaccinated versus unvaccinated participants was 23.7 and 33.2 episodes per 100 000 person-days, respectively (VE: 38%; 95% CI: 15%-55%). Incidence of asymptomatic influenza virus infection was 8.0 versus 11.6 per 100 000 (VE: 13%; 95% CI: -47%, 49%). Vaccination reduced incidence of symptomatic but not asymptomatic influenza virus infection, suggesting that influenza vaccination attenuates progression from infection to illness.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine effectiveness against RSV-associated hospitalisations and emergency department encounters among adults aged 60 years and older in the USA, October, 2023, to March, 2024: a test-negative design analysis

Respiratory syncytial virus vaccines first recommended for use during 2023 were efficacious against lower respiratory tract disease in clinical trials. Limited real-world data regarding respiratory syncytial virus vaccine effectiveness are available. To inform vaccine policy and address gaps in evidence from the clinical trials, we aimed to assess the effectiveness against respiratory syncytial virus-associated hospitalisations and emergency department encounters among adults aged at least 60 years. We conducted a test-negative design analysis in an electronic health records-based network in eight states in the USA, including hospitalisations and emergency department encounters with respiratory syncytial virus-like illness among adults aged at least 60 years who underwent respiratory syncytial virus testing from Oct 1, 2023, to March 31, 2024. Respiratory syncytial virus vaccination status at the time of the encounter was derived from electronic health record documentation, state and city immunisation registries, and, for some sites, medical claims. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated by immunocompromise status, comparing the odds of vaccination among respiratory syncytial virus-positive case patients and respiratory syncytial virus-negative control patients, and adjusting for age, race and ethnicity, sex, calendar day, social vulnerability index, number of underlying non-respiratory medical conditions, presence of respiratory underlying medical conditions, and geographical region. Among 28 271 hospitalisations for respiratory syncytial virus-like illness among adults aged at least 60 years without immunocompromising conditions, vaccine effectiveness was 80% (95% CI 71-85) against respiratory syncytial virus-associated hospitalisations, and vaccine effectiveness was 81% (52-92) against respiratory syncytial virus-associated critical illness (ICU admission or death, or both). Among 8435 hospitalisations for respiratory syncytial virus-like illness among adults with immunocompromising conditions, vaccine effectiveness was 73% (48-85) against associated hospitalisation. Among 36 521 emergency department encounters for respiratory syncytial virus-like illness among adults aged at least 60 years without an immunocompromising condition, vaccine effectiveness was 77% (70-83) against respiratory syncytial virus-associated emergency department encounters. Vaccine effectiveness estimates were similar by age group and product type. Respiratory syncytial virus vaccination was effective in preventing respiratory syncytial virus-associated hospitalisations and emergency department encounters among adults aged at least 60 years in the USA during the 2023-24 respiratory syncytial virus season, which was the first season after respiratory syncytial virus vaccine was approved. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Methodology of comparative studies on the relative effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines: a systematic review.

This study aimed to comprehensively outline the methodological approaches used in published research comparing the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. A systematic search was conducted on June 13, 2024, to identify comparative studies evaluating the effectiveness of mRNA versus non-mRNA and monovalent versus bivalent COVID-19 vaccines. We screened titles, abstracts, and full texts, collecting data on publication year, country, sample size, study population composition, study design, VE estimates, outcomes, and covariates. Studies that reported relative VE (rVE) were analyzed separately from those that did not. We identified 25 articles comparing rVE between mRNA and non-mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, as well as between monovalent and bivalent formulations. Among the studies assessing VE by vaccine type, 126 did not provide rVE estimates. Comparative VE studies frequently employed retrospective cohort designs. Among the definitions of rVE used, the most common were hazard ratio and absolute VE, calculated as (1-odds ratio)×100. Studies were most frequently conducted in the United Kingdom and the United States, and the most common outcome was infection. Most targeted the general population and assessed the VE of mRNA vaccines using the AstraZeneca vaccine as a reference. A small proportion, 7.3% (n=11), did not adjust for any variables. Only 3 studies (2.0%) adjusted for all core confounding variables recommended by the World Health Organization. Few comparative studies of COVID-19 vaccines have incorporated rVE methodologies. Reporting rVE and employing a consistent set of covariates can broaden our understanding of COVID-19 vaccines.

Effectiveness of bivalent HPV vaccination against genital HPV DNA-positivity of a catch-up campaign at age 13–16 years compared to routine vaccination at age 12 years: a biennial repeated cross-sectional study

BackgroundThe Netherlands is one of few countries worldwide which has used the bivalent HPV vaccine for girls-only for over a decade. This allows assessment of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against female genital HPV DNA-positivity of this vaccine in an observational post-licencing real-world setting. Additionally, it is unclear whether catch-up vaccination campaigns result in similar VE as routine vaccination. Therefore, type-specific and grouped VE were assessed and compared for women who had been eligible for catch-up vaccination at 13–16 years with those who had been eligible for routine vaccination at 12 years.MethodsPASSYON is a Dutch biennial repeated cross-sectional (2011–2021) study among sexual health clinic clients aged 16–24 years old. Women provided self-collected vaginal samples, questionnaires on demographics and sexual behaviour were administered, and women self-reported HPV vaccination status. Samples were analysed using a PCR-based assay (SPF10-LiPA25). Type-specific and grouped VE estimates, adjusted with propensity score stratification, were assessed against genital positivity for 14 HPV types. VE for targeted and non-targeted genotypes were compared between women who had been eligible for the catch-up and those who had been eligible for routine vaccination.ResultsThe study included 4488 female participants who had been eligible for HPV vaccination and provided genital swabs (1561 eligible for catch-up, 2927 for routine vaccination). Very high VE against genital HPV-16 and HPV-18 was observed (resp. 93.5% and 89.5%) and significant cross-protection against six other genotypes (HPV-31/33/35/45/52/58), varying from 18.0% (HPV-52) to 79.6% (HPV-45). VE estimates were comparable between women who had been eligible for the catch-up campaign and those eligible for routine vaccination: VE HPV-16/HPV-18: 92.2% (95%CI: 87.9–94.9) vs. 91.8% (95%CI: 86.0–95.2).ConclusionsIn real-world settings, the VE of bivalent vaccine is high against targeted genotypes, with cross-protection against 6 other genotypes. Catch-up campaigns up to age 16 years can be as effective as routine vaccination at age 12, although it is recommendable to provide HPV vaccination at an age at which most are likely not sexually active yet. This may inform countries considering catch-up campaigns when introducing or extending the use of HPV vaccination within their national immunisation programmes.

Improved Methods for Vaccine Effectiveness Studies.

Evaluating the impact of public health investments in vaccination programs is crucial for ensuring their efficiency and effectiveness. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies, such as those using the test-negative design (TND), are commonly used to confirm the impact of vaccines and to guide future improvements. The TND, favored for its simplicity and cost efficiency, mitigates biases common in other epidemiological study designs. However, its validity can be compromised by inconsistent symptom definitions and retrospective data application. Here we summarize recent findings that highlight the need to address correlated vaccination behaviors when estimating VE, that suggest using negative control variables to reduce confounding, and that recommend accounting for prior infection history in VE studies to improve accuracy and reliability. These insights are important for refining VE estimation methods.

Modeling the population-level impact of a third dose of MMR vaccine on a mumps outbreak at the University of Iowa

Mumps outbreaks among fully vaccinated young adults have raised questions about potential waning of immunity over time and need for a third dose of the measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine. However, there are currently limited data on real-life effectiveness of the third-dose MMR vaccine in preventing mumps. Here, we used a deterministic compartmental model to infer the effectiveness of the third-dose MMR vaccine in preventing mumps cases by analyzing the mumps outbreak that occurred at the University of Iowa between August 24, 2015, and May 13, 2016. The modeling approach further allowed us to evaluate the population-level impact of vaccination by different timing in relation to the start of the outbreak and varied coverage levels, and to account for potential sources of bias in estimating vaccine effectiveness. We found large uncertainty in vaccine effectiveness estimates; however, our models showed that early introduction of a third dose of MMR vaccine during a mumps outbreak can be effective in preventing transmission. School holidays, such as the winter break, likely played important roles in preventing mumps transmission.

Interim Effectiveness Estimates of 2024 Southern Hemisphere Influenza Vaccines in Preventing Influenza-Associated Hospitalization - REVELAC-i Network, Five South American Countries, March-July 2024.

To reduce influenza-associated morbidity and mortality, countries in South America recommend annual influenza vaccination for persons at high risk for severe influenza illness, including young children, persons with preexisting health conditions, and older adults. Interim estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) from Southern Hemisphere countries can provide early information about the protective effects of vaccination and help guide Northern Hemisphere countries in advance of their season. Using data from a multicountry network, investigators estimated interim VE against influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) hospitalization using a test-negative case-control design. During March 13-July 19, 2024, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay identified 11,751 influenza-associated SARI cases; on average, 21.3% of patients were vaccinated against influenza, and the adjusted VE against hospitalization was 34.5%. The adjusted VE against the predominating subtype A(H3N2) was 36.5% and against A(H1N1)pdm09 was 37.1%. These interim VE estimates suggest that although the proportion of hospitalized patients who were vaccinated was modest, vaccination with the Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine significantly lowered the risk for hospitalization. Northern Hemisphere countries should, therefore, anticipate the need for robust influenza vaccination campaigns and early antiviral treatment to achieve optimal protection against influenza-associated complications.

Quantifying and Adjusting for Confounding From Health-Seeking Behavior and Health Care Access in Observational Research.

Health-seeking behavior and health care access (HSB/HCA) are recognized confounders in many observational studies but are not directly measurable in electronic health records. We used proxy markers of HSB/HCA to quantify and adjust for confounding in observational studies of influenza and COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE). This cohort study used primary care data prelinked to secondary care and death data in England. We included individuals aged ≥66 years on 1 September 2019 and assessed influenza VE in the 2019-2020 season and early COVID-19 VE (December 2020-March 2021). VE was estimated with sequential adjustment for demographics, comorbidities, and 14 markers of HSB/HCA. Influenza vaccination in the 2019-2020 season was also considered a negative control exposure against COVID-19 before COVID-19 vaccine rollout. We included 1 991 284, 1 796 667, and 1 946 943 individuals in the influenza, COVID-19, and negative control exposure populations, respectively. Markers of HSB/HCA were positively correlated with influenza and COVID-19 vaccine uptake. For influenza, adjusting for HSB/HCA markers in addition to demographics and comorbidities increased VE against influenza-like illness from -1.5% (95% CI, -3.2% to .1%) to 7.1% (95% CI, 5.4%-8.7%) with a less apparent trend for more severe outcomes. For COVID-19, adjusting for HSB/HCA markers did not change VE estimates against infection or severe disease (eg, 2 doses of BNT162b2 against infection: 82.8% [95% CI, 78.4%-86.3%] to 83.1% [95% CI, 78.7%-86.5%]). Adjusting for HSB/HCA markers removed bias in the negative control exposure analysis (-7.5% [95% CI, -10.6% to -4.5%] vs -2.1% [95% CI, -6.0% to 1.7%] before vs after adjusting for HSB/HCA markers). Markers of HSB/HCA can be used to quantify and account for confounding in observational vaccine studies.

Estimates of vaccine effectiveness of the updated monovalent XBB.1.5 COVID-19 vaccine against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization, and receipt of oxygen therapy in South Korea - October 26 to December 31, 2023

ObjectivesWe evaluated the vaccine effectiveness of monovalent XBB.1.5 vaccine against symptomatic COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and the need for oxygen therapy in South Korea. DesignThis study employed a test-negative case-control design. COVID-19 test results in symptomatic subjects from six university hospitals across South Korea were collected (October 26–December 31, 2023). The adjusted absolute and relative vaccine effectiveness were assessed. ResultsIn total, 5516 subjects were enrolled: 4,824 were unvaccinated with XBB.1.5, and 692 were vaccinated with XBB.1.5 COVID-19 mRNA vaccines. The absolute vaccine effectiveness when comparing the odds between XBB.1.5 vaccination and no vaccination against symptomatic COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and oxygen therapy was 65.2% (95% CI, 36.1-81.0), 77.3% (95% CI, 51.1-89.5), and 85.3% (95% CI, 57.8-94.9), respectively. The relative vaccine effectiveness when comparing the odds between XBB.1.5 vaccination and no XBB.1.5 vaccination against symptomatic COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and oxygen therapy was 57.7% (95% CI, 34.7-72.6), 64.3% (95% CI, 35.9-80.2), and 65.5% (95% CI, 27.0-83.7), respectively. ConclusionThe short-term effectiveness of the XBB.1.5 vaccine against symptomatic COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and receipt of oxygen therapy in South Korea was significant. Long-term vaccine effectiveness warrants evaluation, and these assessments should be conducted regularly.

Effectiveness of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in preventing COVID-19-related hospitalization during the Omicron BF.7-predominant epidemic wave in Beijing, China: a cohort study

BackgroundTo estimate vaccine effectiveness(VE) against COVID-19-related hospitalization for inactivated vaccines during the Omicron BF.7-predominant epidemic wave in Beijing, China.MethodsWe recruited a cohort in Beijing on 17 and 18 December 2022, collected status of vaccination and COVID-19-related hospitalization since 1 November 2022 and prospectively followed until 9 January 2023. A Poisson regression model was used to estimate the VE.Results16(1.15%) COVID-19-related hospitalizations were reported in 1391 unvaccinated participants; 7(0.25%) in 2765 participants with two doses, resulting in a VE of 70.89%(95% confidence interval[CI] 26.25 to 87.73); 32(0.27%) in 11,846 participants with three doses, with a VE of 65.25%(95% CI 32.24 to 81.83). The VE of three doses remained above 64% at 1 year or more since the last dose. Elderly people aged ≥ 60 years had the highest hospitalization incidence(0.66%), VE for two doses was 74.11%(95%CI: − 18.42 to 94.34) and VE for three doses was 80.98%(95%CI:52.83 to 92.33). We estimated that vaccination had averted 65,007(95%CI: 12,817 to 97,757) COVID-19-related hospitalizations among people aged ≥ 60 years during the BF.7-predominant period in Beijing.ConclusionInactivated COVID-19 vaccines were effective against COVID-19-related hospitalization, especially for the elderly population who have increased risk of severe disease owing to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Effectiveness of modified vaccinia Ankara-Bavarian Nordic vaccine against mpox infection: emulation of a target trial

ObjectiveTo estimate the real world effectiveness of modified vaccinia Ankara-Bavarian Nordic (MVA-BN) vaccine against mpox infection.DesignEmulation of a target trial.SettingLinked databases in Ontario, Canada.Participants9803 men aged ≥18 years with a...

Estimated Deaths Averted in Adults by COVID-19 Vaccination in Select Latin American and Caribbean Countries.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant impact on global health, with millions of lives lost worldwide. Vaccination has emerged as a crucial strategy in mitigating the impact of the disease. This study aims to estimate the number of deaths averted through vaccination in Latin America and the Caribbean region (LAC) during the first year and a half of vaccination rollout (January 2021-May 2022). Publicly available data on COVID-19 deaths and vaccination rates were used to estimate the total number of deaths averted via vaccination in LAC. Using estimates for number of deaths, number of vaccinated, and vaccine effectiveness, a counterfactual estimated number of deaths observed without vaccination was calculated. Vaccine effectiveness estimates were obtained from published studies. The analysis focused on 17 countries in LAC and considered adults aged 18 years and older. After accounting for underreporting, the analysis estimated that >1.49 million deaths were caused by COVID-19 in the selected countries during the study period. Without vaccination, the model estimated that between 2.10 and 4.11 million COVID-19 deaths would have occurred. Consequently, vaccination efforts resulted in ∼610 000 to 2.61 million deaths averted. This study represents the first large-scale, multicenter estimate of population-level vaccine impact on COVID-19 mortality in LAC. The findings underscore the substantial impact of timely and widespread vaccination in averting COVID-19 deaths. These results provide crucial support for vaccination programs aimed at combating epidemic infectious diseases in the region and future pandemics.