Estimates Of Sea Level Change Research Articles

Comparative analysis of PCS and ICA on trend estimation of sea-level change from tide gauge observations

Comparative analysis of PCS and ICA on trend estimation of sea-level change from tide gauge observations

Monitoring Megathrust-Earthquake-Cycle-Induced Relative Sea-Level Changes near Phuket, South Thailand, Using (Space) Geodetic Techniques

Temporal changes in vertical land motion (VLM) in and around Phuket Island in southern Thailand following the great 2004 Sumatra–Andaman megathrust earthquake have impacted the relative sea-level change estimates based on tide-gauge (TG) records. To better monitor the VLM, two new continuous global navigation satellite system (GNSS) stations have been installed in the past 5 years, situated on bedrock both near and at the Koh Taphao Noi Island TG in Phuket, which together with older global positioning system (GPS) data provides a clear insight in the VLM of Phuket Island from 1994 onward. In addition, satellite altimetry (SALT) data has been analyzed since 1992. The VLM (GPS) position and relative (TG) and absolute (SALT) sea-level change time series were successfully combined in pairs to validate each independent result (e.g., SALT − GNSS = TG): prior to the 2004 earthquake, the relative sea-level rise in Phuket was 1.0 ± 0.7 mm/yr, lower by 2.4 ± 0.2 mm/yr than the absolute sea-level rise caused by VLM. After the earthquake, nonlinear post-seismic subsidence has caused the VLM to drop by 10 cm in the past 17 years, resulting, by the end of 2020, in a relative sea-level rise by up to 16 cm. During the same period, other TG stations in south Thailand recorded similar sea-level increases. Combination with SALT further suggests that, prior to 2005, uplift (5.3 ± 1.4 mm/yr) of the coastal region of Ranong (north of Phuket) resulted in a relative sea-level fall, but since then, post-seismic-induced negative VLM may have significantly increased coastal erosion along the entire Andaman Sea coastline.

On the uncertainty associated with detecting global and local mean sea level drifts on Sentinel-3A and Sentinel-3B altimetry missions

Abstract. An instrumental drift in the point target response (PTR) parameters has been detected on the Copernicus Sentinel-3A altimetry mission. It will affect the accuracy of sea level sensing, which could result in errors in sea level change estimates of a few tenths of a millimeter per year. In order to accurately evaluate this drift, a method for detecting global and regional mean sea level relative drifts between two altimetry missions is implemented. Associated uncertainties are also accurately calculated thanks to a detailed error budget analysis. A drift on both Sentinel-3A (S3A) and Sentinel-3B (S3B) global mean sea level (GMSL) is detected with values significantly higher than expected. For S3A, the relative GMSL drift detected is 1.0 mm yr−1 with Jason-3 and 1.3 mm yr−1 with SARAL/AltiKa. For S3B, the relative GMSL drift detected is −3.4 mm yr−1 with Jason-3 and −2.2 mm yr−1 with SARAL/AltiKa. The drift detected at global level does not show detectable regional variations above the uncertainty level of the proposed method. The investigations led by the altimeter experts can now explain the origin of this drift for S3A and S3B. The ability of the implemented method to detect a sea level drift with respect to the length of the common period is also analyzed. We find that the minimum detectable sea level drift over a 5-year period is 0.3 mm yr−1 at the global scale and 1.5 mm yr−1 at the 2400 km regional scale. However, these levels of uncertainty do not meet the sea level stability requirements for climate change studies.

Estimation of Sea Level Change in the South China Sea from Satellite Altimetry Data

The South China Sea is China’s largest marginal sea area, and it is rich in oil and gas mineral resources; thus, estimating its sea level changes is of practical significance. Based on linear and nonlinear sea level change characteristics, this paper decomposes 1992–2019 monthly mean sea level anomaly time series in the South China Sea into trend, seasonal, and random terms. This paper compares the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and Prophet models for estimating the trend and seasonal terms and the long short-term memory (LSTM) and radial basis function (RBF) models for estimating random terms, and the more suitable models were selected. A Prophet-LSTM combined model was developed based on the accuracy results. This paper uses the combined model to study the effect of known data length on the experimental results and determines the best prediction duration. The results show that the combined model is suitable for short-term and medium-term estimations of 12–36 months. The accuracy at 36 months is 0.962 cm, which proves that the combined model has high application value for estimating sea level changes in the South China Sea.

Subglacial topography and ice flux along the English Coast of Palmer Land, Antarctic Peninsula

Abstract. Recent satellite data have revealed widespread grounding line retreat, glacier thinning, and associated mass loss along the Bellingshausen Sea sector, leading to increased concern for the stability of this region of Antarctica. While satellites have greatly improved our understanding of surface conditions, a lack of radio-echo sounding (RES) data in this region has restricted our analysis of subglacial topography, ice thickness, and ice flux. In this paper we analyse 3000 km of 150 MHz airborne RES data collected using the PASIN2 radar system (flown at 3–5 km line spacing) to investigate the subglacial controls on ice flow near the grounding lines of Ers, Envisat, Cryosat, Grace, Sentinel, Lidke, and Landsat ice streams as well as Hall and Nikitin glaciers. We find that each outlet is topographically controlled, and when ice thickness is combined with surface velocity data from MEaSUREs (Mouginot et al., 2019a), these outlets are found to discharge over 39.25 ± 0.79 Gt a−1 of ice to floating ice shelves and the Southern Ocean. Our RES measurements reveal that outlet flows are grounded more than 300 m below sea level and that there is limited topographic support for inland grounding line re-stabilization in a future retreating scenario, with several ice stream beds dipping inland at ∼ 5∘ km−1. These data reinforce the importance of accurate bed topography to model and understand the controls on inland ice flow and grounding line position as well as overall mass balance and sea level change estimates. RES data described in this paper are available through the UK Polar Data Centre: https://doi.org/10.5285/E07D62BF-D58C-4187-A019-59BE998939CC (Corr and Robinson, 2020).

Revisiting Vertical Land Motion and Sea Level Trends in the Northeastern Adriatic Sea Using Satellite Altimetry and Tide Gauge Data

We propose a revisited approach to estimating sea level change trends based on the integration of two measuring systems: satellite altimetry and tide gauge (TG) time series of absolute and relative sea level height. Quantitative information on vertical crustal motion trends at six TG stations of the Adriatic Sea are derived by solving a constrained linear inverse problem. The results are verified against Global Positioning System (GPS) estimates at some locations. Constraints on the linear problem are represented by estimates of relative vertical land motion between TG couples. The solution of the linear inverse problem is valid as long as the same rates of absolute sea level rise are observed at the TG stations used to constrain the system. This requirement limits the applicability of the method with variable absolute sea level trends. The novelty of this study is that we tried to overcome such limitations, subtracting the absolute sea level change estimates observed by the altimeter from all relevant time series, but retaining the original short-term variability and associated errors. The vertical land motion (VLM) solution is compared to GPS estimates at three of the six TGs. The results show that there is reasonable agreement between the VLM rates derived from altimetry and TGs, and from GPS, considering the different periods used for the processing of VLM estimates from GPS. The solution found for the VLM rates is optimal in the least square sense, and no longer depends on the altimetric absolute sea level trend at the TGs. Values for the six TGs’ location in the Adriatic Sea during the period 1993–2018 vary from −1.41 ± 0.47 mm y−1 (National Research Council offshore oceanographic tower in Venice) to 0.93 ± 0.37 mm y−1 (Rovinj), while GPS solutions range from −1.59 ± 0.65 (Venice) to 0.10 ± 0.64 (Split) mm y−1. The absolute sea level rise, calculated as the sum of relative sea level change rate at the TGs and the VLM values estimated in this study, has a mean of 2.43 mm y−1 in the period 1974–2018 across the six TGs, a mean standard error of 0.80 mm y−1, and a sample dispersion of 0.18 mm y−1.

Coastal sea level anomalies and associated trends from Jason satellite altimetry over 2002\u20132018

Climate-related sea level changes in the world coastal zones result from the superposition of the global mean rise due to ocean warming and land ice melt, regional changes caused by non-uniform ocean thermal expansion and salinity changes, and by the solid Earth response to current water mass redistribution and associated gravity change, plus small-scale coastal processes (e.g., shelf currents, wind & waves changes, fresh water input from rivers, etc.). So far, satellite altimetry has provided global gridded sea level time series up to 10–15 km to the coast only, preventing estimation of sea level changes very close to the coast. Here we present a 16-year-long (June 2002 to May 2018), high-resolution (20-Hz), along-track sea level dataset at monthly interval, together with associated sea level trends, at 429 coastal sites in six regions (Northeast Atlantic, Mediterranean Sea, Western Africa, North Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia and Australia). This new coastal sea level product is based on complete reprocessing of raw radar altimetry waveforms from the Jason-1, Jason-2 and Jason-3 missions.

Vertical land motion in the Iberian Atlantic coast and its implications for sea level change evaluation

Abstract In this study, we estimate vertical land motion for 35 stations primarily located along the coastline of Portugal and Spain, using GPS time series with at least eight years of observations. Based on this set of GPS stations, our results show that vertical land motion along the Iberian coastline is characterized, in general, by a low to moderate subsidence, ranging from −2.2 mm yr−1 to 0.4 mm yr−1, partially explained by the glacial isostatic adjustment geophysical signal. The estimates of vertical land motion are subsequently applied in the analysis of tide gauge records and compared with geocentric estimates of sea level change. Geocentric sea level for the Iberian Atlantic coast determined from satellite altimetry for the last three decades has a mean of 2.5 ± 0.6 mm yr−1, with a significant range, as seen for a subset of grid points located in the vicinity of tide gauge stations, which present trends varying from 1.5 mm yr−1 to 3.2 mm yr−1. Relative sea level determined from tide gauges for this region shows a high degree of spatial variability, that can be partially explained not only by the difference in length and quality of the time series, but also for possible undocumented datum shifts, turning some trends unreliable. In general, tide gauges corrected for vertical land motion produce smaller trends than satellite altimetry. Tide gauge trends for the last three decades not corrected for vertical land motion range from 0.3 mm yr−1 to 5.0 mm yr−1 with a mean of 2.6 ± 1.4 mm yr−1, similar to that obtained from satellite altimetry. When corrected for vertical land motion, we observe a reduction of the mean to ∼1.9 ± 1.4 mm yr−1. Actions to improve our knowledge of vertical land motion using space geodesy, such as establishing stations in co-location with tide gauges, will contribute to better evaluate sea level change and its impacts on coastal regions.

Challenges in relative sea-level change assessment highlighted through a case study: The central coast of Atlantic Patagonia

There are areas in the world where our understanding of past sea-level changes is less robust than in others. This is partly due to the difficulty past investigators had adopting i) high-resolution elevation measurement techniques (largely available only in the last decade) and ii) standardized methodological approaches to reconstruct past relative sea levels starting from field measurements. The central coast of Atlantic Patagonia (Argentina), preserves a unique succession of coastal landforms, which scientific investigations suggest to have been formed discontinuously since at least marine isotope stage 11 up to the Holocene. Patagonian coastal deposits (in particular raised beach ridges, marine terraces and river mouth terraces) and erosional landforms (slope angles, marine notches) were studied in the past with the aim of reconstructing relative sea-level changes and provide geological evidence to constrain geophysically based models for an area affected by significant vertical displacement due to isostatic adjustment and possibly by tectonic uplift. So far, there is no general agreement about the interpretation of Patagonia landforms and deposits in terms of sea-level index points. This is certainly a gap within a planetary scale overview of sea-level change and represents an obstacle for the construction of a sound model of glacial isostatic adjustment for the area. In this paper we critically analyse previous works on sea-level change along the central coast of Atlantic Patagonia and highlight the major sources of uncertainty, including choices about calculating past relative sea levels from the elevation of indicators and the vertical datum used. We also provide a comparison between different vertical datums (tidal, gravimetric and geodetic) at a real site (Puerto Deseado) where Differential Global Positioning System measurements were performed by our team in 2016, and address the problem from a trans-disciplinary point of view. In order to obtain accurate sea-level change estimates in the area, we suggest the use of a large spectrum of sea-level markers with well-defined indicative meanings and the adoption of specific technical choices capable of minimizing instrumental errors.

Long‐term and seasonal Caspian Sea level change from satellite gravity and altimeter measurements

AbstractWe examine recent Caspian Sea level change by using both satellite radar altimetry and satellite gravity data. The altimetry record for 2002–2015 shows a declining level at a rate that is approximately 20 times greater than the rate of global sea level rise. Seasonal fluctuations are also much larger than in the world oceans. With a clearly defined geographic region and dominant signal magnitude, variations in the sea level and associated mass changes provide an excellent way to compare various approaches for processing satellite gravity data. An altimeter time series derived from several successive satellite missions is compared with mass measurements inferred from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data in the form of both spherical harmonic (SH) and mass concentration (mascon) solutions. After correcting for spatial leakage in GRACE SH estimates by constrained forward modeling and accounting for steric and terrestrial water processes, GRACE and altimeter observations are in complete agreement at seasonal and longer time scales, including linear trends. This demonstrates that removal of spatial leakage error in GRACE SH estimates is both possible and critical to improving their accuracy and spatial resolution. Excellent agreement between GRACE and altimeter estimates also provides confirmation of steric Caspian Sea level change estimates. GRACE mascon estimates (both the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) coastline resolution improvement version 2 solution and the Center for Space Research (CSR) regularized) are also affected by leakage error. After leakage corrections, both JPL and CSR mascon solutions also agree well with altimeter observations. However, accurate quantification of leakage bias in GRACE mascon solutions is a more challenging problem.

Regional Sea-Level Change along the Chilean Coast in the 21st Century

ABSTRACT Albrecht, F. and Shaffer, G., 2016. Regional sea-level change along the Chilean coast in the 21st century. Regional sea-level change for Chile is considered until the end of the 21st century for the representative concentration pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The main components that contribute to sea-level change are analyzed and summed to achieve a total estimate of sea-level change along the coast of Chile and in the Southeast Pacific. Included are the steric/dynamic component, the contribution from land ice loss, and the sea-level change due to the glacial isostatic adjustment. Regional fingerprints and global means are combined to estimate sea-level change in this area. For the steric/dynamic component two different estimates are considered. The results are compared with those found in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The total mean sea-level rise along the coast lies between 34 cm and 52 cm for the RCP4.5 scenario and between 46 cm and 74 cm for ...

An Improved 20-Year Arctic Ocean Altimetric Sea Level Data Record

For ocean and climate research, it is essential to get long-term altimetric sea level data that is as accurate as possible. However, the accuracy of the altimetric data is frequently degraded in the interior of the Arctic Ocean due to the presence of seasonal or permanent sea ice. We have reprocessed ERS-1/2/Envisat satellite altimetry to develop an improved 20-year sea level dataset for the Arctic Ocean. We have developed both an along-track dataset and three-day gridded sea level anomaly (SLA) maps from September 1992 to April 2012. A major improvement in data coverage was gained by tailoring the standard altimetric editing criteria to Arctic conditions. The new reprocessed data has significant increased data coverage with between 4 and 10 times the amount of data in regions such as the Beaufort Gyre region compared with AVISO and RADS datasets. This allows for a more accurate estimation of sea level changes from satellite altimetry in the Arctic Ocean. The reprocessed dataset exhibit a mean sea level trend of 2.1 ± 1.3 mm/year (without Glacial Isostatic Adjustment correction) covering the Arctic Ocean between 66°N and 82°N with significant higher spatial coherency in the ice-covered regions than the RADS and DUACS datasets.

Depth-dependent temperature change contributions to global mean thermosteric sea level rise from 1960 to 2010

The dependency of global mean thermosteric sea level changes to temperature at different depths down to 700m is investigated from 1960 to 2010 using two separate gridded temperature datasets, and compared with reconstructed estimates of sea level change. The rates of thermosteric sea level changes are closely correlated with those of reconstructed sea level changes with correlation coefficients larger than 0.8, but the former has smaller amplitudes than the latter, indicating contributions to total sea level change from processes other than upper ocean temperature changes examined here. Most of the net thermosteric sea level rise (~92%) can be attributed to temperature changes of the upper ocean (0–300m), but an intriguing temporal lag is found between thermal anomalies of the upper (0–300m) and lower (300–700m) layers in the historical temperature datasets, suggestive of a time-lag associated with heat penetrating from the surface into deeper layers of the ocean. Results of global mean thermosteric sea level estimates from the two different temperature datasets are found to be consistent with each other in time and in depth.

Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers

Abstract. We present estimates of sea-level change caused by the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the individual glaciers of the world, excluding the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The model is validated using a leave-one-glacier-out cross-validation scheme against 3997 observed surface mass balances of 255 glaciers, and against 756 geodetically observed, temporally integrated volume and surface area changes of 341 glaciers. When forced with observed monthly precipitation and temperature data, the glaciers of the world are reconstructed to have lost mass corresponding to 114 ± 5 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) between 1902 and 2009. Using projected temperature and precipitation anomalies from 15 coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, they are projected to lose an additional 148 ± 35 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 166 ± 42 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), 175 ± 40 mm SLE (scenario RCP60), or 217 ± 47 mm SLE (scenario RCP85) during the 21st century. Based on the extended RCP scenarios, glaciers are projected to approach a new equilibrium towards the end of the 23rd century, after having lost either 248 ± 66 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 313 ± 50 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), or 424 ± 46 mm SLE (scenario RCP85). Up until approximately 2100, ensemble uncertainty within each scenario is the biggest source of uncertainty for the future glacier mass loss; after that, the difference between the scenarios takes over as the biggest source of uncertainty. Ice mass loss rates are projected to peak 2040 ∼ 2050 (RCP26), 2050 ∼ 2060 (RCP45), 2070 ∼ 2090 (RCP60), or 2070 ∼ 2100 (RCP85).

Sea level changes at Ascension Island in the last half century

An exercise in ‘data archaeology’ at Ascension Island has provided an estimate of sea level change between 1955 and 2001.5 (the mid-point of a recent dataset spanning 1993–2009). That average trend of 0.93 mm y−1 (SE 0.69) compares to a larger rate during 1993–2009 itself of 2.55 (SE 0.13) and 2.07 (SE 0.30) mm y−1 from tide gauge and altimeter data respectively, suggesting a recent acceleration in sea level rise. An ocean model and steric height datasets have been used for comparison to the measurements, with the conclusion that the acceleration was probably at least partly due to a steric height increase. This exercise is based on only one month of historical tide gauge data and is admittedly on the useful limit for long-term sea level studies. In addition, it is unfortunate that the tide gauge benchmark installed in 1955 has disappeared, even if one can estimate its height relative to modern marks. Nevertheless, the study does provide information of interest to climate studies, enables limits to be inferred on the real changes, and provides background information for other coastal studies. Most importantly, it is intended as a demonstration of the value of similar exercises where short historical records exist.

Continental mass change from GRACE over 2002–2011 and its impact on sea level

Present-day continental mass variation as observed by space gravimetry reveals secular mass decline and accumulation. Whereas the former contributes to sea-level rise, the latter results in sea-level fall. As such, consideration of mass accumulation (rather than focussing solely on mass loss) is important for reliable overall estimates of sea-level change. Using data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment satellite mission, we quantify mass-change trends in 19 continental areas that exhibit a dominant signal. The integrated mass change within these regions is representative of the variation over the whole land areas. During the integer 9-year period of May 2002 to April 2011, GIA-adjusted mass gain and mass loss in these areas contributed, on average, to −(0.7 ± 0.4) mm/year of sea-level fall and + (1.8 ± 0.2) mm/year of sea-level rise; the net effect was + (1.1 ± 0.6) mm/year. Ice melting over Greenland, Iceland, Svalbard, the Canadian Arctic archipelago, Antarctica, Alaska and Patagonia was responsible for + (1.4±0.2) mm/year of the total balance. Hence, land-water mass accumulation compensated about 20 % of the impact of ice-melt water influx to the oceans. In order to assess the impact of geocentre motion, we converted geocentre coordinates derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) to degree-one geopotential coefficients. We found geocentre motion to introduce small biases to mass-change and sea-level change estimates; its overall effect is + (0.1 ± 0.1) mm/year. This value, however, should be taken with care owing to questionable reliability of secular trends in SLR-derived geocentre coordinates.

Understanding and Projecting Sea Level Change

There is intense scientific and public interest in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of sea level for the twenty-first century and beyond. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projections, obtained by applying standard methods to the results of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Experiment, includes estimates of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps (G&ICs), increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and increased precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica, partially offsetting other contributions. The AR4 recognized the potential for a rapid dynamic ice sheet response but robust methods for quantifying it were not available. Illustrative scenarios suggested additional sea level rise on the order of 10 to 20 cm or more, giving a wide range in the global averaged projections of about 20 to 80 cm by 2100. Currently, sea level is rising at a rate near the upper end of these projections. Since publication of the AR4 in 2007, biases in historical ocean temperature observations have been identified and significantly reduced, resulting in improved estimates of ocean thermal expansion. Models that include all climate forcings are in good agreement with these improved observations and indicate the importance of stratospheric aerosol loadings from volcanic eruptions. Estimates of the volumes of G&ICs and their contributions to sea level rise have improved. Results from recent (but possibly incomplete) efforts to develop improved ice sheet models should be available for the 2013 IPCC projections. Improved understanding of sea level rise is paving the way for using observations to constrain projections. Understanding of the regional variations in sea level change as a result of changes in ocean properties, wind-stress patterns, and heat and freshwater inputs into the ocean is improving. Recently, estimates of sea level changes resulting from changes in Earth's gravitational field and the solid Earth response to changes in surface loading have been included in regional projections. While potentially valuable, semi-empirical models have important limitations, and their projections should be treated with caution

Deglaciation-Induced Spatially Variable Sea Level Change: A Simple-Model Case Study for the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Some studies on deglaciation-induced sea level change provide only a global average change, thus neglecting the fact that sea level change is spatially variable. This is due mainly to the gravitational and visco-elastic feedback effects of the changing surface mass loads. In order to address this apparent misconception and raise further awareness, we provide a conceptual example based on a simulated total melt of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This would give a global average sea level change of about 64 m. However, due to the changed distribution of gravitating masses, the sea-level change depends on location, with a range of about −27 m to +79 m (i.e., sea-level will even fall in some places). This spatial dependency has several implications, such as >10% biases in global average sea-level change estimates based only on tide-gauge records, flooding of almost 10% of current land areas, an increase of the length of day by almost a half a second and a northward move of the centre of mass (geocentre) by about 20 m.

Age accuracy and resolution of Quaternary corals used as proxies for sea level

The accuracy of global eustatic sea level curves measured from raised Quaternary reefs, using radiometric ages of corals at known heights, may be limited by time-averaging, which affects the variation in coral age at a given height. Time-averaging was assessed in uplifted Holocene reef sequences from the Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea, using radiocarbon dating of coral skeletons in both horizontal transects and vertical sequences. Calibrated 2σ age ranges varied from 800 to 1060 years along horizontal transects, but weighted mean ages calculated from 15–18 dates per horizon were accurate to a resolution within 154–214 yr. Approximately 40% of the variability in age estimate resulted from internal variability inherent to 14C estimates, and 60% was due to time-averaging. The accuracy of age estimates of sea level change in studies using single dated corals as proxies for sea level is probably within 1000 yr of actual age, but can be resolved to ≤ 250 yr if supported by dates from analysis of a statistical population of corals at each stratigraphic interval. The range of time-averaging among reef corals was much less than that for shelly benthos. Ecological time-averaging dominated over sedimentological time averaging for reef corals, opposite to patterns reported from shelly benthos in siliciclastic environments.

Paleo-evolution of the Black Sea watershed: sea level and water transport through the Bosporus Straits as an indicator of the Lateglacial–Holocene transition

The paleo-evolution of the Black Sea level during the Lateglacial–Holocene transition is still unclear, which motivates us to provide new estimates for that period based on the analysis of water budget. Hydrological conditions in the Black Sea catchment area are reconstructed here using water balance equation, available data, and constraints based on simple theory relating the runoff ratio with climatic characteristics. In order to estimate the impact of the aridity of climate we consider two alternative scenarios: (1) climate change under constant in time gradient in precipitation and evaporation over land and sea, and (2) climate change accounting for changes in the horizontal distribution of precipitation and evaporation. Hydrological data are compiled from available present-day data and paleo-observations. A number of sensitivity experiments is carried out revealing that the hydrological conditions in the Black Sea watershed should have evolved towards a very arid climate (similar to the present-day climate in the Caspian Sea area) in order to initiate a drop of sea level of ∼100 m below the sill depth of the Bosporus Straits, as speculated in some recent research. Estimates of sea level changes reveal a qualitative agreement with the coast-line evolution inferred from paleo-observations. The Younger Dryas draw down of the Black Sea starts at about 13.3 to 13 kyr BP, with a maximum low-stand of 104 m at 11.5 kyr BP. In an arid climate scenario the sea level reaches the outlet at about 8.8 to 7.4 kyr BP. Approximately at that time, Mediterranean sea level was about 10 m higher, making flooding events of the Black Sea possible. However, the nature and exact timing of the Holocene reconnection depends also on other (not well known) factors; one of them is the Bosporus sill depth, motivating further research in this field. Estimates of the water transport through the Bosporus Straits are also provided for the time of Lateglacial–Holocene transition.