Estimation Error Research Articles

Quantifying error in effect size estimates in attention, executive function, and implicit learning.

Accurate quantification of effect sizes has the power to motivate theory and reduce misinvestment of scientific resources by informing power calculations during study planning. However, a combination of publication bias and small sample sizes (∼N = 25) hampers certainty in current effect size estimates. We sought to determine the extent to which sample sizes may produce errors in effect size estimates for four commonly used paradigms assessing attention, executive function, and implicit learning (attentional blink, multitasking, contextual cueing, and serial response task). We combined a large data set with a bootstrapping approach to simulate 1,000 experiments across a range of N (13-313). Beyond quantifying the effect size and statistical power that can be anticipated for each study design, we demonstrate that experiments with lower N may double or triple information loss. We also show that basing power calculations on effect sizes from similar studies yields a problematically imprecise estimate between 40% and 67% of the time, given commonly used sample sizes. Last, we show that skewness of intersubject behavioral effects may serve as a predictor of an erroneous estimate. We conclude with practical recommendations for researchers and demonstrate how our simulation approach can yield theoretical insights that are not readily achieved by other methods such as identifying the information gained from rejecting the null hypothesis and quantifying the contribution of individual variation to error in effect size estimates. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

HyperGen: Compact and Efficient Genome Sketching using Hyperdimensional Vectors.

Genomic distance estimation is a critical workload since exact computation for whole-genome similarity metrics such as Average Nucleotide Identity (ANI) incurs prohibitive runtime overhead. Genome sketching is a fast and memory-efficient solution to estimate ANI similarity by distilling representative k-mers from the original sequences. In this work, we present HyperGen that improves accuracy, runtime performance, and memory efficiency for large-scale ANI estimation. Unlike existing genome sketching algorithms that convert large genome files into discrete k-mer hashes, HyperGen leverages the emerging hyperdimensional computing (HDC) to encode genomes into quasi-orthogonal vectors (Hypervector, HV) in high-dimensional space. HV is compact and can preserve more information, allowing for accurate ANI estimation while reducing required sketch sizes. In particular, the HV sketch representation in HyperGen allows efficient ANI estimation using vector multiplication, which naturally benefits from highly optimized general matrix multiply (GEMM) routines. As a result, HyperGen enables the efficient sketching and ANI estimation for massive genome collections. We evaluate HyperGen 's sketching and database search performance using several genome datasets at various scales. HyperGen is able to achieve comparable or superior ANI estimation error and linearity compared to other sketch-based counterparts. The measurement results show that HyperGen is one of the fastest tools for both genome sketching and database search. Meanwhile, HyperGen produces memory-efficient sketch files while ensuring high ANI estimation accuracy. A Rust implementation of HyperGen is freely available under the MIT license as an open-source software project at https://github.com/wh-xu/Hyper-Gen. The scripts to reproduce the experimental results can be accessed at https://github.com/wh-xu/experiment-hyper-gen.

Multi-UAVs Tracking Non-Cooperative Target Using Constrained Iterative Linear Quadratic Gaussian

This study considers the problem of controlling multi-unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to consistently track a non-cooperative ground target with uncertain motion in a hostile environment with obstacles. An active information acquisition (AIA) problem is formulated to minimize the uncertainty of the target tracking task. The uncertain motion of the target is represented as a Wiener process. First, we optimize the configuration of the UAV swarm considering the collision avoidance, horizontal field of view (HFOV), and communication radius to calculate the reference trajectories of the UAVs. Next, a novel algorithm called Constrained Iterative Linear Quadratic Gaussian (CILQG) is introduced to track the reference trajectory. The target’s state with uncertainty and the UAV state are described as beliefs. The CILQG algorithm utilizes the Unscented Transform to propagate the belief regarding the UAVs’ motions, while also accounting for the impact of navigation errors on the target tracking process. The estimation error of the target position of the proposed method is under 4 m, and the error of tracking the reference trajectories is under 3 m. The estimation error remains unchanged even in the presence of obstacles. Therefore, this approach effectively deals with the uncertainties involved and ensures accurate tracking of the target.

Supplemental Material for Quantifying Error in Effect Size Estimates in Attention, Executive Function, and Implicit Learning

Supplemental Material for Quantifying Error in Effect Size Estimates in Attention, Executive Function, and Implicit Learning

Active Remote Sensing Assessment of Biomass Productivity and Canopy Structure of Short-Rotation Coppice American Sycamore (Platanus occidentalis L.)

The short-rotation coppice (SRC) culture of trees provides a sustainable form of renewable biomass energy, while simultaneously sequestering carbon and contributing to the regional carbon feedstock balance. To understand the role of SRC in carbon feedstock balances, field inventories with selective destructive tree sampling are commonly used to estimate aboveground biomass (AGB) and canopy structure dynamics. However, these methods are resource intensive and spatially limited. To address these constraints, we examined the utility of publicly available airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data and easily accessible imagery from Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs) to estimate the AGB and canopy structure of an American sycamore SRC in the piedmont region of North Carolina, USA. We compared LiDAR-derived AGB estimates to field estimates from 2015, and UAS-derived AGB estimates to field estimates from 2022 across four planting densities (10,000, 5000, 2500, and 1250 trees per hectare (tph)). The results showed significant effects of planting density treatments on LIDAR- and UAS-derived canopy metrics and significant relationships between these canopy metrics and AGB. In the 10,000 tph, the field-estimated AGB in 2015 (7.00 ± 1.56 Mg ha−1) and LiDAR-derived AGB (7.19 ± 0.13 Mg ha−1) were comparable. On the other hand, the UAS-derived AGB was overestimated in the 10,000 tph planting density and underestimated in the 1250 tph compared to the 2022 field-estimated AGB. This study demonstrates that the remote sensing-derived estimates are within an acceptable level of error for biomass estimation when compared to precise field estimates, thereby showing the potential for increasing the use of accessible remote-sensing technology to estimate AGB of SRC plantations.

Sensorless control method of induction motors with new feedback gain matrix and speed adaptive law for low speed range

Abstract The conventional adaptive full-order observer-based speed sensorless control method for induction motor is prone to instability at low-speed region as improper feedback gain matrix and imprecise speed adaptive law are often used. To address these problems, a new feedback gain matrix design approach as well as a new speed adaptive law design technique are proposed in this paper. Firstly, considering that the d-axis current estimation error in the traditional feedback gain matrix design method has a great influence on the stability of the speed estimation algorithm, especially at low speeds, a new feedback gain matrix design method is proposed to minimize the d-axis current estimation error. Secondly, a new speed adaptive law design technique is studied based on the conventional method, which only requires the d-axis and q-axis current estimation error with a weight coefficient to be designed, simplifying the conventional speed adaptive law. Thirdly, the transfer function from the speed observation error to the proposed adaptive error is analyzed by Routh stability criterion theory, and the weight coefficient suitable for full range stable operation is determined by MATLAB software. Fourthly, the stability of the proposed method in this paper is analyzed using the poles distribution maps. Finally, the proposed method is experimentally verified based on a 2.2 kW induction motor experimental platform. The experimental results show that the proposed method can make the induction motor operate steadily at low-speed and zero-speed region with rated load. In addition, the proposed method has better anti-disturbance performance than the existing method.

Estimation of CO2 storage capacities in saline aquifers using material balance

Estimating CO2 storage capacities is crucial in developing carbon capture and storage projects. Material balance equation (MBE) methods, widely employed for oil and gas reserve estimation, offer a direct approach to estimating CO2 storage capacities. However, previous MBE methods rely on an original fluid in-place volume calculated using volumetric methods to estimate CO2 storage capacities, lacking validation for accuracy. It is essential to accurately estimate the original fluid in-place volume, representing the pore volume, as it substantially influences CO2 storage capacity. This study presents a refined MBE method that ensures accurate estimates of CO2 storage capacities by validating the original fluid in-place volumes in saline aquifers. The accuracy of this method was evaluated by comparing it with a commercial reservoir simulator for a synthetic aquifer example and the Sleipner L9 model. In the synthetic aquifer example, the relative error in CO2 storage capacity estimation with the proposed MBE method was only 2.09%, even when short-term (1-year) injection data were utilized. The proposed MBE method demonstrates consistent accuracy in estimating CO2 storage capacities under different aquifer properties, operating conditions, and MBE-related conditions. The proposed MBE method also accurately estimated the CO2 storage capacity in the Sleipner L9 model, achieving a relative error of 3.47%.

An Adjustable Parameter-Based Robust Distributed Fault Diagnosis for One-Sided Lipschitz Formation of Clustered Multi-Agent Systems

This paper addresses the challenge of distributed fault diagnosis in the context of the one-sided Lipschitz formation of agents. Each agent integrates an observer to detect and estimate both linear and non-linear faults in its attitude control subsystem. A robust design configuration is also developed to account for external perturbations. The robust observer utilized in this study is an unknown input observer (UIO), designed to mitigate the impact of disturbances on fault and state estimation errors. The observer’s parameters are determined using linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Furthermore, a UIO incorporating an adjustable parameter (AP) is introduced to enhance fault diagnosis accuracy. Simulation results for two satellite clusters, consisting of five satellites with varying dynamics due to external disturbances, are presented to validate the approach. Instead of equipping every agent with an observer, specific agents can be equipped with observers to detect faults throughout the constellation, thereby reducing computational demands in configurations with numerous agents. Finally, a comparison is made between the proposed AP-based UIO and a standard UIO. The comparison findings reveal a noteworthy average of a substantial 56.61% reduction in root mean square error (RMSE) employing AP-based UIO compared to the utilization of standard robust UIO.

The distributed fault diagnosis for nonlinear complex dynamical networks based on [formula omitted]-detection criterion

The actuator fault diagnosis problem of nonlinear complex dynamical networks with stochastic noise is investigated. Firstly, a local estimation based on a priori knowledge and measurement output is designed to estimate state for each node. A sufficient condition is derived such that the estimation error is stable and the estimation gain matrix is obtained in fault-free case by applying the stability theory. Secondly, considering additive actuator fault in presence of process and measurement noises, the residual signal based on estimation error is designed to detect faults and locate them. Thirdly, the threshold is acquired by applying the covariance matrix of estimation error. A fault detection and isolation logic is designed via the σ-detection criterion. Finally, two different examples are designed to verify the effectiveness of the designed actuator fault detection and isolation scheme.

Machine Learning-Enhanced Probabilistic Validation Techniques with Minimal Data Exposure in Distributed Systems

This article studies the distributed state estimation issue for complex networks with nonlinear uncertainty. The extended state approach is used to deal with the nonlinear uncertainty. The distributed state predictor is designed based on the extended state system model, and the distributed state estimator is designed by using the measurement of the corresponding node. The prediction error and the estimation error are derived. The prediction error covariance (PEC) is obtained in terms of the recursive Riccati equation, and the upper bound of the PEC is minimized by designing an optimal estimator gain. With the vectorization approach, a sufficient condition concerning stability of the upper bound is developed. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the designed extended state estimator.

A compensation method for PMSM sensorless control with parameter identification considering SMO observation error

AbstractSensorless control of permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) can increase the reliability of electric actuators of more electrical aircraft. Numerical online parameter estimation method will enhance the performance for sensorless control methods based on sliding mode observer (SMO). However, numerical online parameter identification methods typically assume zero rotor position estimation error to ensure full rank of the identification equation set. This assumption actually leads to errors in parameter identification, resulting in steady‐state errors in rotor position estimation. This paper focuses on a compensation method for PMSM online parameter identification that takes into account rotor position estimation error. This method is used for sensorless control based on SMO, using model reference adaptive systems for online parameter identification, and no additional parameter adjustment required. Validation is conducted on a PMSM experimental platform with maximum load of 15kW. The experimental results of 1000 r/min steady state operation proved the effectiveness of the method, and the dynamic experiments with 5 and 15kW loads proved that the method has no significant adverse effect on the system dynamics.

State of energy estimation of lithium-ion battery based on long short-term memory optimization Adaptive Cubature Kalman filter.

State of energy (SOE) is an important parameter to ensure the safety and reliability of lithium-ion battery (LIB) system. The safety of LIBs, the development of artificial intelligence, and the increase in computing power have provided possibilities for big data computing. This article studies SOE estimation problem of LIBs, aiming to improve the accuracy and adaptability of the estimation. Firstly, in the SOE estimation process, adaptive correction is performed by iteratively updating the observation noise equation and process noise equation of the Adaptive Cubature Kalman Filter (ACKF) to enhance the adaptive capability. Meanwhile, the adoption of high-order equivalent models further improves the accuracy and adaptive ability of SOE estimation. Secondly, Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) is introduced to optimize Ohmic internal resistance (OIR) and actual energy (AE), further improving the accuracy of SOE estimation. Once again, in the process of OIR and AE estimation, the iterative updating of the observation noise equation and process noise equation of ACKF were also adopted to perform adaptive correction and enhance the adaptive ability. Finally, this article establishes a SOE estimation method based on LSTM optimized ACKF. Validate the LSTM optimized ACKF method through simulation experiments and compare it with individual ACKF methods. The results show that the ACKF estimation method based on LSTM optimization has an SOE estimation error of less than 0.90% for LIB, regardless of the SOE at 100%, 65%, and 30%, which is more accurate than the SOE estimation error of ACKF alone. It can be seen that this study has improved the accuracy and adaptability of LIB's SOE estimation, providing more accurate data support for ensuring the safety and reliability of lithium batteries.

A transfer learning-based ensemble learning model for electric vehicles lithium-ion battery capacity estimation using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy

Lithium-ion battery capacity estimation is crucial to ensure the operational reliability and safety of electric vehicles. Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) can provide rich physical degradation information of the battery, which makes the EIS-based data-driven method a promising solution for accurate battery capacity estimation. However, batteries tend to present diverse degradation patterns due to the diverse operating conditions and manufacturing, resulting in large capacity estimation errors in practical applications. Therefore, this paper proposes a transfer learning (TL) based ensemble learning (EL) method based on multi-layer perception for the battery capacity estimation. First, the influential impedance features are identified from the EIS using Spearman rank coefficient analysis. Second, three TL models are developed based on distinct TL strategies to enable sufficient knowledge transfer considering the different degradation pattern. Further, an EL method with Gaussian kernel-based weighted assignment technique is proposed to integrate the developed TL models and improve the estimation robustness. The performance of the developed model has been successfully validated only using the first 1/3 cycles of the historical data from target battery obtained under different operating conditions and batteries. The results reveal that the proposed method can largely suppress estimation errors, presenting more accurate capacity estimation compared to other methods with an RMSE lower than 1%.

An Inverse Modeling Approach for Retrieving High-Resolution Surface Fluxes of Greenhouse Gases from Measurements of Their Concentrations in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

This study explores the potential of using Unmanned Aircraft Vehicles (UAVs) as a measurement platform for estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes over complex terrain. We proposed and tested an inverse modeling approach for retrieving GHG fluxes based on two-level measurements of GHG concentrations and airflow properties over complex terrain with high spatial resolution. Our approach is based on a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model capable of determining the airflow parameters that affect the spatial distribution of GHG concentrations within the atmospheric boundary layer. The model is primarily designed to solve the forward problem of calculating the steady-state distribution of GHG concentrations and fluxes at different levels over an inhomogeneous land surface within the model domain. The inverse problem deals with determining the unknown surface GHG fluxes by minimizing the difference between measured and modeled GHG concentrations at two selected levels above the land surface. Several numerical experiments were conducted using surrogate data that mimicked UAV observations of varying accuracies and density of GHG concentration measurements to test the robustness of the approach. Our primary modeling target was a 6 km2 forested area in the foothills of the Greater Caucasus Mountains in Russia, characterized by complex topography and mosaic vegetation. The numerical experiments show that the proposed inverse modeling approach can effectively solve the inverse problem, with the resulting flux distribution having the same spatial pattern as the required flux. However, the approach tends to overestimate the mean value of the required flux over the domain, with the maximum errors in flux estimation associated with areas of maximum steepness in the surface topography. The accuracy of flux estimates improves as the number of points and the accuracy of the concentration measurements increase. Therefore, the density of UAV measurements should be adjusted according to the complexity of the terrain to improve the accuracy of the modeling results.

State estimation for proportional delayed complex-valued memristive neural networks

The paper addresses the issue of state estimation for a kind of complex-valued memristive neural networks (CVMNNs) accompanied by proportional delays, without applying regular split method of CVMNNs. By virtue of constructing pertinent Lyapunov functional (LF), and deploying matrix inequality techniques, various delay-dependent principles for scrutinizing the asymptotical stability of the estimation error system of the CVMNNs are constituted by linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) with CV variables. Examples are portrayed to manifest the validity and accuracy of the raised principles, and demonstrated applications in image security.

Robust Design Based on Cost-Quality Model in Micro-Manufacturing

This paper proposes a novel total cost model for the micro‐products' entire life cycle that takes into account the uncertainty of the model parameters. The total cost includes pre-sale manufacturing and post-sale warranty costs. Additionally, different marketing strategies are also given based on the weight of internal and external costs. Furthermore, limited data and unknown effects in experiments may cause large errors in parameter estimates. This could prevent the achievement of reliable designs. To address this, robust optimization and interval estimation are used. This approach reduces the impact of uncertainty on parameter estimates. It ensures optimality and robustness in micro-manufacturing parameters. Example analysis and numerical simulation results show that the proposed method assists companies in selecting the optimal manufacturing parameter level that aligns with their marketing strategies. Besides, considering uncertainty factors can ensure that the optimization results remain guaranteed, even under the worst-case scenarios.

Evaluating the insulation condition of oil‐impregnated paper bushings based on the time constant database

AbstractAssessing the insulation condition of oil‐impregnated paper (OIP) bushings is necessary to guarantee the safe operation of power transformers. Moisture is the main threat to the insulation of OIP bushings. Therefore, accurately estimating their moisture value is crucial to keep power systems running smoothly. However, it has been suggested that the ageing status of OIP bushings should be considered while assessing the moisture. Dielectric frequency‐domain spectroscopy (FDS) has been extensively employed for assessing insulation condition of OIP insulations due to its benefits. A new approach was proposed to assess the insulation condition of OIP bushings using FDS results. Various OIP samples with various moisture levels and degrees of polymerisation (DP) were selected. The extended Debye model (EDM) parameters related to each sample were calculated using their tanδ − f curve. A time constant database (TCD) was created using the obtained time constants of EDM, which includes the dominant time constant and time constant related to the R0 – C0 branch, and their corresponding insulation condition. Then, a method was introduced based on the created TCD to estimate the insulation condition of OIP bushings. The results showed that the average relative error of moisture and DP estimation is 8.33% and 6.32%, respectively.

Evaluating the insulation condition of oil‐impregnated paper bushings based on the time constant database

AbstractAssessing the insulation condition of oil‐impregnated paper (OIP) bushings is necessary to guarantee the safe operation of power transformers. Moisture is the main threat to the insulation of OIP bushings. Therefore, accurately estimating their moisture value is crucial to keep power systems running smoothly. However, it has been suggested that the ageing status of OIP bushings should be considered while assessing the moisture. Dielectric frequency‐domain spectroscopy (FDS) has been extensively employed for assessing insulation condition of OIP insulations due to its benefits. A new approach was proposed to assess the insulation condition of OIP bushings using FDS results. Various OIP samples with various moisture levels and degrees of polymerisation (DP) were selected. The extended Debye model (EDM) parameters related to each sample were calculated using their tanδ − f curve. A time constant database (TCD) was created using the obtained time constants of EDM, which includes the dominant time constant and time constant related to the R0 – C0 branch, and their corresponding insulation condition. Then, a method was introduced based on the created TCD to estimate the insulation condition of OIP bushings. The results showed that the average relative error of moisture and DP estimation is 8.33% and 6.32%, respectively.

Adventitious Error and Its Implications for Testing Relations Between Variables and for Composite Measurement Outcomes.

Wu and Browne (Psychometrika 80(3):571-600, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11336-015-9451-3 ; henceforth W &B) introduced the notion of adventitious error to explicitly take into account approximate goodness of fit of covariance structure models (CSMs). Adventitious error supposes that observed covariance matrices are not directly sampled from a theoretical population covariance matrix but from an operational population covariance matrix. This operational matrix is randomly distorted from the theoretical matrix due to differences in study implementations. W &B showed how adventitious error is linked to the root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) and how the standard errors (SEs) of parameter estimates are augmented. Our contribution is to consider adventitious error as a general phenomenon and to illustrate its consequences. Using simulations, we illustrate that its impact on SEs can be generalized to pairwise relations between variables beyond the CSM context. Using derivations, we conjecture that heterogeneity of effect sizes across studies and overestimation of statistical power can both be interpreted as stemming from adventitious error. We also show that adventitious error, if it occurs, has an impact on the uncertainty of composite measurement outcomes such as factor scores and summed scores. The results of a simulation study show that the impact on measurement uncertainty is rather small although larger for factor scores than for summed scores. Adventitious error is an assumption about the data generating mechanism; the notion offers a statistical framework for understanding a broad range of phenomena, including approximate fit, varying research findings, heterogeneity of effects, and overestimates of power.

Encryption–decryption-based state estimation for nonlinear complex networks subject to coupled perturbation

This paper discusses the encryption-decryption-based state estimation (EDBSE) issue for coupled perturbation complex networks (CPCNs) in the framework of the Kalman-type filtering scheme. A uniform distributed random variable is employed to characterize the coupled perturbation among different network units. A uniform-quantization-dependent encryption-decryption (UQDED) scheme is considered here to orchestrate the transmitted data. A novel EDBSE approach is developed such that the upper bounds of prediction error (PE) covariance (PEC) and estimation error (EE) covariance (EEC) can be derived by resolving Riccati-like difference equations and the estimation parameter (EP) is determined by minimizing the trace of the upper bound of EEC. Furthermore, a uniformly bounded condition is elaborated to evaluate the algorithm performance of EDBSE. Finally, an illustrative example is conducted to verify the validity of the introduced EDBSE method.