Estimated Tuberculosis Incidence Research Articles

Clinical, radiological varieties and diagnostic facilities of smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV uninfected patients, a retrospective analysis

Abstract Context Pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) is still one of the most common infectious diseases in the world. It is the second leading cause of death from an infectious disease worldwide, after the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). WHO estimated TB incidence in Egypt in 2019 at 12 000. Purpose The aim of this study was to make a re-look at the epidemiological characteristics, clinical presentations, and radiological findings of patients with smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPT) in non-HIV infected patients. Methods Retrospective analysis was performed including non-HIV patients with smear negative TB, with studying of demographics, symptoms, radiological patterns, and radiological distribution and the used diagnostic methods. Statistical analysis The demographic, clinical, and radiological data were gathered together, tabulated, and statistically analyzed. Data analysis was performed by Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS – version 22). Results 74 smear-negative TB, non-HIV, age mean 47.17 ± 12.8 SD, 72.2% were males, DM was present in (39.2%), fever in (83.3%), weight loss in (61.1%), cough in (59.7%), consolidation pattern in (63.8%), cavities in (36.1%), an apical segment of right upper lobe in (41.9%), bronchoscopic lavage with Ziehl–Neelsen stain (BAL ZN) diagnosed (52.7%) of sputum negative cases. Conclusion Common variables among recorded cases were male sex, middle-aged individuals, Diabetes Mellitus (DM), toxic manifestation, an involved right apical segment of the upper lobe, consolidation and cavitary patterns, and most cases were diagnosed by bronchoscopic lavage with Ziehl–Neelsen.

Rural-Urban Inequities in Tuberculosis-Related Practices in Equatorial Guinea.

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the leading causes of mortality from a single infectious disease agent. Equatorial Guinea is a country with high estimated TB incidence in 2021 (275 cases per 100,000 population) and low TB case detection (42%). Early diagnosis and prompt treatment are crucial for TB control. Failure to seek adequate health care increases the disease's transmission and leads to poor treatment outcome, the mortality, even for easily manageable conditions. Information regarding community management of TB and treatment-seeking patterns in Equatorial Guinea is rare. The aim of this study was to explore differences in TB health-seeking behaviour among urban and rural population TB cases in Equatorial Guinea and the factors associated with this behaviour. A national cross-sectional study of 770 household caregivers was conducted in 2020 in Equatorial Guinea using multistage stratified sampling. The 284 caregivers that reported having had a TB case in their family were included in this study. A practice index was created. Poisson regression with robust variance was performed with the practices index as dependent variable to assess the factors associated with the health-seeking behaviour. Most of the cases (65%) have had good TB health-seeking practices. However, 23.2% of TB cases reported having abandoned treatment before 6 months. A higher probability of having good TB practices was observed with being women, aged and living in rural area. Those who were TB cases themselves have heard about TB on the radio, and had high knowledge about TB, hand also good practices. Disparities in tuberculosis health-seeking behaviour between rural and urban populations highlight the challenges existing in the fight against this infectious disease. The National Tuberculosis Control Program has to reinforce the health system needs to strengthen the follow-up of TB patients taking into account the population at risk of inappropriate TB behaviour. Not applicable.

Tuberculosis and its associated risk factors among HIV-positive pregnant women in northwest Ethiopia: A retrospective follow-up study

BackgroundPeople living with the human immunodeficiency virus have a higher risk of developing active tuberculosis disease. Human immunodeficiency virus infected pregnant women are at a much higher risk of getting active tuberculosis infection, partly due to immune modulation. However, very little is known about the epidemiology of tuberculosis among pregnant women infected with the virus, particularly in resource-limited settings where the burdens of these infections are substantial. Hence, this study aimed to estimate tuberculosis incidence and identify its risk factors among human immunodeficiency virus infected pregnant women in northwest Ethiopia. MethodsAn institutional-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted among pregnant women who were enrolled in option B+ prevention of mother to child transmission service between June 2013 and April 2021 in Pawe district. The Kaplan–Meier survival curve and Weibull regression model were used to estimate survival probability and identify risk factors of tuberculosis, respectively. The best model between the Cox and parametric models was chosen using the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. ResultOut of 289 human immunodeficiency virus infected pregnant women included in the final analysis, 29 (10.03 %) developed active tuberculosis. The overall incidence of tuberculosis was 17.4 per 1000 person-months of observation (95 % CI: 12.1, 25.1). Lack of isoniazid preventive therapy (AHR: 6.68, 95 % CI: 2.67, 16.7), new enrollment to care (AHR: 2.62, 95 % CI: 1.14, 6.03), under-nutrition (AHR: 5.09, 95 % CI: 2.02, 12.83), low CD4 count (AHR: 2.61, 95 % CI: 1.01, 6.78), and suboptimal antiretroviral therapy adherence (AHR: 3.17, 95 % CI: 1.46, 6.86) were predictors of tuberculosis among HIV-positive pregnant women. ConclusionThis study found a high incidence of tuberculosis among human immunodeficiency virus infected pregnant women. Thus, strengthening the provision of tuberculosis preventive therapy, reinforcing adherence support, and controlling under-nutrition should be considered to decrease the risk of tuberculosis.

Epidemiology of tuberculosis in the Pacific island countries and areas, 2000-2020.

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the most important infectious diseases with an estimated 9.9 million people falling ill globally in 2020. We describe the epidemiology of TB in the Pacific island countries and areas (PICs) to inform potential priority actions to implement the Western Pacific Regional Framework to End TB 2021-2030. A descriptive analysis was conducted using annual TB surveillance data submitted by national TB programmes to the World Health Organization (WHO) and TB burden estimates (incidence rates and number of deaths) generated by WHO for the PICs, for the period 2000-2020. We also analysed TB case numbers, multidrug-resistant/rifampicin-resistant TB (MDR/RR-TB), recent risk factor indicators and treatment outcomes. The estimated TB incidence rate in the PICs increased between 2000 and 2020 from 62 to 69 per 100 000 population, with an 8% reduction observed since 2015. TB cases increased by 29% during 2000-2020, with 1746 cases in 2020 and a high proportion in children (19%). Bacteriological diagnosis was used for 58% of total TB cases, although some countries reported clinical diagnoses in over 60% of cases. From 2015 to 2019, 52 MDR/RR-TB cases were reported and there were 94 TB/HIV coinfected cases in 2015-2020. Treatment success was 74% in 2019 due to 18% of cases being unevaluated. In 2020, the estimated proportion of TB cases attributable to smoking, malnutrition, alcohol abuse and diabetes was 17%, 16%, 11% and 9%, respectively. There was an increasing trend in TB cases, estimated incidence and deaths between 2000 and 2020. Laboratory services were scaled up in some PICs and case-finding activities greatly contributed to the detection of cases. To end the incidence of TB, continued efforts on case finding, contact investigation and scaling up TB preventive treatment should be prioritized. At the same time, collaboration with other sectors for risk factor management and decentralized management need to be considered.

Estimating tuberculosis burden: national reporting systems

Estimating tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and deaths are crucial to capture the tuberculosis burden and to assess the progress towards tuberculosis elimination in 2035. WHO publishes a report of estimated tuberculosis burden each year, showing that tuberculosis remains among the top ten causes of death worldwide.1 The estimates arise from data and information collected by several methods: surveillance systems, prevalence surveys, mortality surveys, inventory studies (to capture unreported detected tuberculosis), and expert opinion and consultation.

GeneXpert rollout in three high-burden tuberculosis countries in Africa: A review of pulmonary tuberculosis diagnosis and outcomes from 2001 to 2019.

BackgroundThe rollout of GeneXpert aimed at increasing early diagnosis of tuberculosis to improve treatment outcomes and global tuberculosis targets.ObjectiveThis study evaluated trends in tuberculosis diagnosis and outcomes pre- and post-introduction of GeneXpert in three African countries – the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Nigeria and South Africa.MethodsData from 2001 to 2019 were extracted from the World Health Organization’s data repository. Descriptive analysis, paired t-tests and interrupted time series models were used.ResultsEstimated tuberculosis incidence decreased from 327/100 000 to 324/100 000 in the DRC, and from 1220/100 000 to 988/100 000 in South Africa. Incidence remained at 219/100 000 in Nigeria. The tuberculosis case notification rate did not change significantly. Increases in the new case treatment success rates were statistically significant (DRC: p = 0.0201; Nigeria: p = 0.0001; South Africa: p = 0.0017); decreases in mortality were also statistically significant (DRC: p = 0.0264; Nigeria: p = 0.0001; South Africa: p < 0.0001). Time series models showed insignificant increases in new tuberculosis cases in DRC (n = 1856, p = 0.085) and Nigeria (n = 785, p = 0.555) from 2011 to 2019; and a statistically significant decrease in South Africa (n = 15 269, p = 0.006).ConclusionImprovements in tuberculosis treatment outcomes were achieved, but little progress has been made in new case notification due to varied implementation and scale-up of GeneXpert across the three countries. Implementation barriers need to be addressed to achieve the required tuberculosis targets.

Linking nationwide health and social registry data to informthe policy for Tuberculosis contact tracing in Brazil.

ObjectivesMitigating the socioeconomic determinants of Tuberculosis (TB) and systematic screening of contacts and high-risk groups are targets of The World Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy by 2035. Our aim was to link socioeconomic information to TB datasets to inform policy makers in Brazil and contribute to addressing current challenges.&#x0D; ApproachFollowing a signed technical cooperation agreement with the Ministry of Health (MoH), we linked nationwide data on 1.405.682 registries of TB diagnosed between 2004 and 2019 in Brazil to 131.697.800 demographic and socioeconomic registries from the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort (2001-2018) previously linked to nationwide mortality data. We established close links with TB managers to understand the database, clean and deduplicate registries and to analyse the data. We took advantage of the data structure, to set up a cohort of household contacts of TB patients and produce estimates of TB incidence by subgroups of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics.&#x0D; ResultsThe interaction of the MoH was effective and facilitated by a robust TB Programme in the country. 567.999 (40,41%) TB cases were linked to the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort with high specificity (93.6%) and sensitivity (94.6%). Using family identifiers, we established the first TB case within a family unit (i.e., primary case) and followed their household contacts up to 15 years. We found the TB incidence among household contacts to be 427.8/100.000 person-years (95%CI 419.1-436.8). In the first year following the identification of the primary case, there was higher cumulative incidence among household contacts under 5 years of age, which was followed by a plateau of cases in this age group. Cummulative incidence in the other age groups presented a constant increase over time.&#x0D; ConclusionThe close collaboration with the MoH, the development of an effective linkage algorithm and the availability of large socioeconomic data allowed for a unique analysis of the high incidence of TB among household contacts. Findings reinforce need for constant dialogue among stakeholders to strengthen case detection by primary health care.

The impact of HIV and tuberculosis interventions on South African adult tuberculosis trends, 1990-2019: a mathematical modeling analysis

ObjectivesTo quantify the South African adult tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality attributable to HIV between 1990 and 2019 and to estimate the reduction in TB incidence due to directly observed therapy, antiretroviral therapy (ART), isoniazid preventive therapy, increased TB screening, and Xpert MTB/RIF. MethodsWe developed a dynamic TB transmission model for South Africa. A Bayesian approach was used to calibrate the model to South African-specific data sources. Counterfactual scenarios were simulated to estimate TB incidence and mortality attributable to HIV and the impact of interventions on TB incidence. ResultsBetween 1990 and 2019, 8.8 million (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.3-9.3 million) individuals developed TB, and 2.1 million (95% CI 2.0-2.2 million) died from TB. A total of 55% and 69% of TB cases and mortality were due to HIV, respectively. Overall, TB screening and ART substantially reduced TB incidence by 28.2% (95% CI 26.4-29.8%) and 20.0% (95% CI 19.2-20.7%), respectively, in 2019; other interventions had minor impacts. ConclusionHIV has dramatically increased TB incidence and mortality in South Africa. The provision of ART and intensification of TB screening explained most recent declines in TB incidence.

Estimation of tuberculosis incidence at subnational level using three methods to monitor progress towards ending TB in India, 2015–2020

ObjectivesWe verified subnational (state/union territory (UT)/district) claims of achievements in reducing tuberculosis (TB) incidence in 2020 compared with 2015, in India.DesignA community-based survey, analysis of programme data and anti-TB drug...

Tuberculosis Among Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus in Indonesia: A Cohort Study.

BackgroundIn previous studies, researchers have identified systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) as a risk factor for tuberculosis (TB), but data from TB-endemic countries are still relatively scarce. We examined TB in a large cohort of SLE patients in Indonesia.MethodsAll patients registered in a lupus registry of the top referral hospital for West Java between 2008 and 2020 were included. Data on SLE characteristics and treatment were retrieved from the registry, and data on TB diagnosis, localization, and outcome were extracted from medical records. Cox-proportional hazard model was used to examine risk factors for development of TB.ResultsAmong 1278 SLE patients observed over a total of 4804 patient-years, 131 patients experienced 138 episodes of TB, a median of 2 years (interquartile range, 0.6–5.4) after diagnosis of SLE. A total of 113 patients (81.9%) had pulmonary involvement and 61 (44.2%) had extrapulmonary involvement, with disseminated disease in 26 of 138 episodes (18.8%), and 13 of 131 patients (9.9%) died from TB. The estimated TB incidence was 2873 cases per 100 000 person years. In multivariate cox regression analysis, development of TB was associated with household TB contact (hazard ratio [HR], 7.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.05–12.80), pulse methylprednisolone therapy (HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.01–2.67), and age ≤25 years old at SLE diagnosis (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.00–2.35).ConclusionsThere is a high burden of TB in SLE patients in this TB-endemic setting, underlining the need for evaluation or implementation of TB preventive strategies.

Tuberculosis incidence and mortality in people living with human immunodeficiency virus: a Danish nationwide cohort study

ObjectivesTo explore changes over time in the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in Denmark in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PLWH). MethodsIn this nationwide, population-based cohort study we included all adult PLWH from the Danish HIV Cohort Study (1995–2017) without previous TB. We estimated TB incidence rate (IR), all-cause mortality rate (MR), associated risk and prognostic factors using Poisson regression. ResultsAmong 6982 PLWH (73 596 person-years (PY)), we observed 217 TB events (IR 2.9/1000 PY, 95% CI 2.6–3.4: IR 6.7, 95% CI 5.7–7.9 among migrants and IR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1–1.7 among Danish-born individuals; p < 0.001). The IR of concomitant HIV/TB remained high and unchanged over time. The IR of TB diagnosed >3 months after HIV diagnosis declined with calendar time, longer time from HIV diagnosis, and CD4 cell recovery. Independent TB risk factors were African/Asian/Greenland origin (adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) 5.2, 95% CI 3.5–7.6, aIRR 6.5, 95% CI 4.2–10.0, aIRR 7.0, 95% CI 3.4–14.6, respectively), illicit drug use (aIRR 6.9, 95% CI 4.2–11.2), CD4 <200 cells/μL (aIRR 2.7, 95% CI 2.0–3.6) and not receiving antiretroviral therapy (aIRR 3.7, 95% CI 2.5–5.3). Fifty-five patients died (MR 27.9/1000 PY, 95% CI 21.4–36.3), with no improvement in mortality over time. Mortality prognostic factors were Danish-origin (adjusted mortality rate ratio (aMRR) 2.3, 95% CI 1.3–4.3), social burden (aMRR 3.9, 95% CI 2.2–7.0), CD4 <100 cells/μL at TB diagnosis (aMRR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3–4.9), TB diagnosed >3 months after HIV versus concomitant diagnosis (aMRR 4.3, 95% CI 2.2–8.7) and disseminated TB (aMRR 3.3, 95% CI 1.1–9.9). ConclusionLate HIV presentation with concomitant TB remains a challenge. Declining TB rates in PLWH were observed over time and with CD4 recovery, highlighting the importance of early and successful antiretroviral therapy. However, MR remained high. Our findings highlight the importance of HIV and TB screening strategies and treatment of latent TB in high-risk groups.

Public-Private Mix Models of Tuberculosis Care in Pakistan: A High-Burden Country Perspective.

Introduction: Pakistan ranks fifth in the globally estimated burden of tuberculosis (TB) case incidence. Annually, a gap of 241,688 patients with TB exists between estimated TB incidence and actual TB case notification in Pakistan. These undetected/missed TB cases initiate TB care from providers in the private healthcare system who are less motivated to notify patients to the national database that leads to significant underdetection of actual TB cases in the Pakistani community. To engage these private providers in reaching out to missing TB cases, a national implementation trial of the Public–Private Mix (PPM) model was cohesively launched by National TB Control Program (NTP) Pakistan in 2014. The study aims to assess the implementation, contribution, and relative treatment outcomes of cohesively implemented PPM model in comparison to the non-PPM model.Methods: A retrospective record review of all forms (new and relapse) patients with TB notified from July 2015 to June 2016 was conducted both for PPM- and non-PPM models.Results: The PPM model was implemented in 92 districts in total through four different approaches and contributed 25% (81,016 TB cases) to the national TB case notification. The PPM and non-PPM case notification showed a strong statistical difference in proportions among compared variables related to gender (p < 0.001), age group (p < 0.000), and province (p < 0.000). Among PPM approaches, general practitioners and non-governmental-organization facilities achieve a treatment success of 94–95%; private hospitals achieve 82% success, whereas Parastatals are unable to follow more than half of their notified TB cases.Discussion: The PPM model findings in Pakistan are considerably consistent with countries that have prioritized PPM for an increasing trend in the TB case notification to their national TB control programs. Different PPM approaches need to be scaled up in terms of PPM implemented districts, PPM coverage, PPM coverage efficiency, and PPM coverage outcome in the Pakistani healthcare system in the future.

Epidemiology of Tuberculosis and Progress Toward Meeting Global Targets - Worldwide, 2019.

Although tuberculosis (TB) is curable and preventable, in 2019, TB remained the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent worldwide and the leading cause of death among persons living with HIV infection (1). The World Health Organization's (WHO's) End TB Strategy set ambitious targets for 2020, including a 20% reduction in TB incidence and a 35% reduction in the number of TB deaths compared with 2015, as well as zero TB-affected households facing catastrophic costs (defined as costs exceeding 20% of annual household income) (2). In addition, during the 2018 United Nations High-Level Meeting on TB (UNHLM-TB), all member states committed to setting 2018-2022 targets that included provision of TB treatment to 40 million persons and TB preventive treatment (TPT) to 30 million persons, including 6 million persons living with HIV infection and 24 million household contacts of patients with confirmed TB (4 million aged <5 years and 20 million aged ≥5 years) (3,4). Annual data reported to WHO by 215 countries and territories, supplemented by surveys assessing TB prevalence and patient costs in some countries, were used to estimate TB incidence, the number of persons accessing TB curative and preventive treatment, and the percentage of TB-affected households facing catastrophic costs (1). Globally, TB illness developed in an estimated 10 million persons in 2019, representing a decline in incidence of 2.3% from 2018 and 9% since 2015. An estimated 1.4 million TB-related deaths occurred, a decline of 7% from 2018 and 14% since 2015. Although progress has been made, the world is not on track to achieve the 2020 End TB Strategy incidence and mortality targets (1). Efforts to expand access to TB curative and preventive treatment need to be substantially amplified for UNHLM-TB 2022 targets to be met.

Estimating and Evaluating Tuberculosis Incidence Rates Among People Experiencing Homelessness, United States, 2007-2016.

Persons experiencing homelessness (PEH) are disproportionately affected by tuberculosis (TB). We estimate area-specific rates of TB among PEH and characterize the extent to which available data support recent transmission as an explanation of high TB incidence. We estimated TB incidence among PEH using National Tuberculosis Surveillance System data and population estimates for the US Department of Housing and Urban Development's Continuums of Care areas. For areas with TB incidence higher than the national average among PEH, we estimated recent transmission using genotyping and a plausible source-case method. For cases with ≥1 plausible source case, we assessed with TB program partners whether available whole-genome sequencing and local epidemiologic data were consistent with recent transmission. During 2011-2016, 3164 TB patients reported experiencing homelessness. National incidence was 36 cases/100,000 PEH. Incidence estimates varied among 21 areas with ≥10,000 PEH (9-150 cases/100,000 PEH); 9 areas had higher than average incidence. Of the 2349 cases with Mycobacterium tuberculosis genotyping results, 874 (37%) had ≥1 plausible source identified. In the 9 areas, 23%-82% of cases had ≥1 plausible source. Of cases with ≥1 plausible source, 63% were consistent and 7% were inconsistent with recent transmission; 29% were inconclusive. Disparities in TB incidence for PEH persist; estimates of TB incidence and recent transmission vary by area. With a better understanding of the TB risk among PEH in their jurisdictions and the role of recent transmission as a driver, programs can make more informed decisions about prioritizing TB prevention strategies.

Methods for estimating tuberculosis incidence and mortality by age and sex

AimsTo develop methods to disaggregate World Health Orgagnization estimates of tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality for each country by sex and age.MethodsFor countries where incidence estimates derived from a factor adjustment of notifications and case detection ratio over 0.85, or with <1000 reported TB cases, we disaggregated incidence proportional to notifications. For each other country, a prior was constructed using a hierarchical model of age-stratified prevalence survey data, meta-analysis of sex ratios, and mathematical modelling for children under 15 years. Samples from this prior were used to disaggregate incidence and accepted if incidence exceeded notifications in each age/sex category. Results were inspected and, if implausible, incidence was disaggregated proportional to notifications. Mortality was disaggregated proportional to patterns in vital registration (VR) data in countries with VR data. Where VR data were lacking, a case-fatality ratio (CFR) approach was applied to estimated incidence, with separate CFRs by HIV/ART status, child/adult age groups, and anti-TB treatment status. Uncertainty in all disaggregated country estimates was constructed to be consistent with corresponding overall uncertainty.ResultsWe generated disaggregated results for 216 countries. For 125 countries, incidence disaggregation was based on notifications. Of the rest, accepted samples from the prior were considered implausible in 4 countries. For 72 countries, mortality disaggregation was based on VR data; the rest were based on the CFR approach.ConclusionsWhile multi-stage, this approach is comparatively simple in overall logic. Disaggregated estimates have relatively larger uncertainty and should be used with caution.

Quantifying geographic heterogeneity in TB incidence and the potential impact of geographically targeted interventions in South and North City Corporations of Dhaka, Bangladesh: a model-based study.

In rapidly growing and high-burden urban centres, identifying tuberculosis (TB) transmission hotspots and understanding the potential impact of interventions can inform future control and prevention strategies. Using data on local demography, TB reports and patient reporting patterns in Dhaka South City Corporation (DSCC) and Dhaka North City Corporation (DNCC), Bangladesh, between 2010 and 2017, we developed maps of TB reporting rates across wards in DSCC and DNCC and identified wards with high rates of reported TB (i.e. 'hotspots') in DSCC and DNCC. We developed ward-level transmission models and estimated the potential epidemiological impact of three TB interventions: active case finding (ACF), mass preventive therapy (PT) and a combination of ACF and PT, implemented either citywide or targeted to high-incidence hotspots. There was substantial geographic heterogeneity in the estimated TB incidence in both DSCC and DNCC: incidence in the highest-incidence wards was over ten times higher than in the lowest-incidence wards in each city corporation. ACF, PT and combined ACF plus PT delivered to 10% of the population reduced TB incidence by a projected 7%-9%, 13%-15% and 19%-23% over five years, respectively. Targeting TB hotspots increased the projected reduction in TB incidence achieved by each intervention 1.4- to 1.8-fold. The geographical pattern of TB notifications suggests high levels of ongoing TB transmission in DSCC and DNCC, with substantial heterogeneity at the ward level. Interventions that reduce transmission are likely to be highly effective and incorporating notification data at the local level can further improve intervention efficiency.

Epidemiology of tuberculosis in the Western Pacific Region: Progress towards the 2020 milestones of the End TB Strategy.

Since 2015, the End TB Strategy and the Regional Framework for Action on Implementation of the End TB Strategy in the Western Pacific 2016–2020 have guided national tuberculosis (TB) responses in countries and areas of the Region. This paper provides an overview of the TB epidemiological situation in the Western Pacific Region and of progress towards the 2020 milestones of the Strategy. A descriptive analysis was conducted of TB surveillance and programme data reported to WHO and estimates of the TB burden generated by WHO for the period 2000–2018. An estimated 1.8 million people developed TB and 90 000 people died from it in the Region in 2018. Since 2015, the estimated TB incidence rate and the estimated number of TB deaths in the Region decreased by 3% and 10%, with annual reduction rates of 1.0% and 3.4%, respectively. With current efforts, the Region is unlikely to achieve the 2020 milestones and other targets of the Strategy. Major challenges include: (1) wide variation in the geographical distribution and rate of TB incidence among countries; (2) a substantial proportion (23%) of TB cases that remain unreached, undiagnosed or unreported; (3) insufficient coverage of drug susceptibility testing (51%) for bacteriologically confirmed cases and limited use of WHO-recommended rapid diagnostics (11 countries reported < 60% coverage); (4) suboptimal treatment outcomes of TB (60% of countries reported < 85% success), of TB/HIV co-infection (79%) and of multidrug- or rifampicin-resistant TB (59%); (5) limited coverage of TB preventive treatment among people living with HIV (39%) and child contacts (12%); and (6) substantial proportions (35–70%) of TB-affected families facing catastrophic costs. For the Region to stay on track to achieve the End TB Strategy targets, an accelerated multisectoral response to TB is required in every country.

Incidence of Tuberculosis During the First Year of Antiretroviral Treatment in West African HIV-Infected Adults.

We estimated tuberculosis incidence during the first year on antriretroviral therapy without isoniazid-preventive treatment in 6938 West African HIV-infected adults at 3.33 cases per 100 person-years (95% CI, 2.85–3.80). In multivariate Poisson models, sites in Cote d’Ivoire, male gender, low body mass index, low hemoglobin, low CD4 count, and young age were significantly associated with higher incidence.

Global Epidemiology of Tuberculosis and Progress Toward Meeting Global Targets — Worldwide, 2018

Worldwide, tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from a single infectious disease agent (1), including among persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (2). A World Health Organization (WHO) initiative, The End Tuberculosis Strategy, set ambitious targets for 2020-2035, including 20% reduction in TB incidence and 35% reduction in the absolute number of TB deaths by 2020 and 90% reduction in TB incidence and 95% reduction in TB deaths by 2035, compared with 2015 (3). This report evaluated global progress toward these targets based on data reported by WHO (1). Annual TB data routinely reported to WHO by 194 member states were used to estimate TB incidence and mortality overall and among persons with HIV infection, TB-preventive treatment (TPT) initiation, and drug-resistant TB for 2018 (1). In 2018, an estimated 10 million persons had incident TB, and 1.5 million TB-related deaths occurred, representing 2% and 5% declines from 2017, respectively. The number of persons with both incident and prevalent TB remained highest in the WHO South-East Asia and African regions. Decreases in the European region were on track to meet 2020 targets. Globally, among persons living with HIV, 862,000 incident TB cases occurred, and 1.8 million persons initiated TPT. Rifampicin-resistant or multidrug-resistant TB occurred among 3.4% of persons with new TB and 18% among persons who were previously treated for TB (overall, among 4.8% of persons with TB). The modest decreases in the number of persons with TB and the number of TB-related deaths were consistent with recent trends, and new and substantial progress was observed in increased TPT initiation among persons living with HIV. However, to meet the global targets for 2035, more intensive efforts are needed by public health partners to decrease TB incidence and deaths and increase the number of persons receiving TB curative and preventive treatment. Innovative approaches to case finding, scale-up of TB preventive treatment, use of newer TB treatment regimens, and prevention and control of HIV will contribute to decreasing TB.

Trends in Untreated Tuberculosis in Large Brazilian Cities

Introduction: As in many countries, tuberculosis (TB) programs in Brazil are managed at the state and local level, where the success of disease control may differ substantially from national-level averages. Methods: We used municipality-level data on case notifications, TB-related mortality, GDP per capita, and primary healthcare coverage for Brazil’s top 100 municipalities by population as well as all state capitals for 2008-2017. We constructed a mathematical model describing the relationship between these data and unobserved TB incidence and case detection probabilities. We used Bayesian methods to synthesize data and estimate TB incidence, fraction of cases treated, and the untreated TB rate ( product of incidence and one minus the fraction of cases treated ) for each year and municipality. Results: In 2017, these municipalities had an average incidence of 58.6 per 100,000 (range: 11.6, 169), with an average 5.3 untreated cases per 100,000 (range: 0.7, 23.0), a nd an average fraction treated of 0.91 (range: 0.78, 0.97). Over 2008-2017, the incidence rate and the untreated TB rates decreased at an average annual rate of 0.95% (range: -5.41% – 4.73%) and 2.88% (range: -17.4% – 7.98%) respectively; the fraction of cases initiating treatment increased at an average annual rate of 0.3% (range: -0.97% – 3.54%). The incidence rate increased in 33 municipalities and the fraction of treated cases decreased in 36 municipalities over the study period. Interpretation: The results describe substantial variation in disease burden and the strength of case detection in Brazilian municipalities. These methods can provide municipalities with information to guide local public health decision-making. Funding Statement: Dr. Menzies reports grants from Lemann Brazil Research Fund and NIH (1R01AI146555-01A1) during the conduct of the study; Ms. Chitwood reports grants from Michael von Clemm Traveling Fellowship Fund during the conduct of the study. Declaration of Interests: All authors have nothing to disclose. Ethics Approval Statement: The Office of Human Research Administration at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health reviewed the Initial Study Submission (Protocol #: IRB18-0759) and determined that it met the criteria for exemption from the ethics board (IRB) review.