Estimate Consumer Demand Research Articles

Penerapan Metode Fuzzy Tsukamoto Dalam Memprediksi Permintaan Barang

Azthana Digital Media is a digital agency that works with a number of Indonesian vendors, including Pempek Mola, Pempek Kalani, and Eightsy Bag. Azthana oversees distribution and maintains warehousing for all three brands simultaneously. However, due to fluctuations in product demand, there are sometimes gaps in the supply of goods across all brands. So we need a method that can be implemented in inventory management and product development in the future. Forecasting strategies are useful tools for maintaining and expanding stock levels. In this study, researchers used the Fuzzy Tsukamoto technique built into a web-based inventory system to estimate consumer demand. Sales data, product purchases and goods production data are the three main inputs used to formulate demand forecasts. The results of this study can be concluded that the inventory system created can help the related team to find out the exact amount of stock available and to implement the Tsukamoto fuzzy calculations in predicting the demand for goods in the system that is running well as evidenced by the results of manual calculations and the system if the demand value is input equal to 355 with four fuzzy rules that are set together to produce a production value of requests for goods that must be ordered to suppliers of 522 packs.

I scream, you scream, we all scream for local ice cream: Consumer preferences for locally processed foods

AbstractThis study investigates consumer preferences for local brands of consumer packaged goods. Using a structural model of consumer demand for ice cream and data on retail ice cream sales from multiple locations of a large food retailer, we estimate consumer demand for local brands of ice cream and the willingness to pay for the local attribute. Using fixed and random coefficients logit models of product choice with cost shifters as instruments, we find that Ohio consumers are willing to pay, on average, an additional $0.13 per serving for local brands of ice cream. In counterfactual simulations, we estimate that replacing local brands of ice cream would reduce welfare by $2.78 million dollars annually for consumers in Ohio. For policymakers seeking to maintain and attract new local food producers, these results provide new insights into the potential gains that could result from increased local consumer packaged goods entrants [EconLit Citations: D12, D61, Q11, Q18].

How to regulate vaping products to advance cancer prevention: Evidence from online stores.

e22502 Background: The use of electronic cigarettes has significantly increased in the past decade, and online stores are one of the most common outlets for e-cigarette users to purchase vaping products. The goal of this study is to examine the appeal of different e-liquid flavors to vapers, using a revealed preference method to estimate consumer demand. Methods: We collected data on e-liquid sales prices, volume (in ml), and a variety of product flavors, from online vaping stores using web data extraction. We standardized prices for e-liquid products and used the hedonic pricing model to assess the associations between standardized e-liquid prices and flavors, controlling for nicotine concentration (in mg) and product VG/PG ratio. In total, we collected data of 10,870 e-liquid products from four popular online vaping stores that sell nationwide across the U.S. Results: Higher e-liquid prices (standardized to $/ml) are associated with higher nicotine concentrations. E-liquid products with fruit tobacco flavors are associated with higher sales prices. E-liquid prices are higher when VG/PG ratio deviates from 70/30 except for 90/10: the prices of e-liquid products with a 90/10 VG/PG ratio are lower than the prices of products with a 70/30 ratio. All of the findings above are statistically significant at a 5% level. Conclusions: Higher nicotine concentration and fruit flavors are associated with higher e-liquid prices in national online vaping stores, suggesting that they are preferred attributes and are in greater demand among vapers in the market of heterogeneous e-liquid products.

Assessing consumer valuations of future costs versus purchase prices in Japan's auto market

To tax vehicles such that market distortions are minimized and environmental goals are promoted, policymakers must determine whether consumers correctly assess automobile prices versus future costs of ownership. Drawing from data spanning 2006 to 2015 for Japan's new car market, we apply the aggregate random coefficients logit model to estimate consumer demand with rich substitution patterns. We find that Japanese consumers primarily focused on fuel costs and future registration taxes followed by vehicle purchase prices. This finding implies that promoting eco-friendly vehicles requires Japanese policymakers' attention to fuel and vehicle registration taxes. This finding also suggests that salient features of preferential tax treatment in the auto market distort consumer preferences toward future costs. Counterfactual experiments under a fixed amount of tax revenue reveal that raising fuel taxes improves average fuel economy more than registration taxes do at the expense of broader social welfare.

Application of Multiple Linear Regression Algorithm for Motorcycle Sales Estimation

CV. Kerinci Motor is a company engaged in the transportation and automotive sector, especially in the sale of motorcycles. The uncertainty in the number of motorcycle sales at this company has hampered the company's development, because the company cannot take definite policies regarding the sales that occur. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the sales of motorcycles at this company in the future, so that the management can estimate consumer demand in the future. So that the company is able to serve and provide consumer demand. The estimation algorithm that will be used in this research is Multiple Linear Regression which is one of the data mining methods. This method was chosen because it is able to make an estimate by utilizing data regarding sales. The results of the estimated (estimated) sales of manual motorcycles in 2021 by January are 56,941 or 57 motorcycles in the manual category. This means that there is an increase in the number of manual motorbikes by 5 motorbikes, while the results until May 2021 amounted to 65,710 motorbikes. So it can be concluded that sales of motorcycles at CV. Kerinci Motor have increased sales in the next 5 months.

Tehnike ekonomskog vrednovanja ekoloških dobara

Many companies in the environmental goods sector are interested in creating "added value". When looking at the viability of investing in production, companies starting out the production in the environmental goods sector should research production costs as well as consumer demand for new environmental products. Although the costs of environmental goods production can be roughly estimated, estimating consumer demand is a complex process. Questions related to determining the price of a new environmental goods product, the level of demand, the target segment and identifying consumer needs, which are inevitably present when introducing a new product to the market, represent the starting point for creating an adequate marketing strategy. This paper aims to explore the techniques of economic valuation of environmental goods as well as the concept of "Willingness to pay" for environmental goods or services. The paper shall analyze two basic groups of economic valuation techniques: revealed preferences techniques (RP), which observe consumer behavior and their choices on the real market, and stated preferences techniques (SP).

Analysis of the demand for pet insurance among uninsured pet owners in the United States.

Although cost is often a barrier to providing optimal veterinary care, only a minority of pet owners use insurance to help cover veterinary costs. We sought to estimate consumer demand and preferences for pet insurance and how educating owners on treatment costs and disease risk affects pet insurance uptake. We surveyed 306 dog owners across the United States without pet insurance, including a choice experiment, used ordinary least squares regression to estimate the demand for pet insurance, and conjoint analysis to estimate the pet insurance feature preferences. Pet insurance uptake increased by 12.3% after veterinary treatment cost and canine cancer risk information was presented to participants. We found that, on average, pet owners were willing to pay $24 more per month for a preventive care service in pet insurance. Forty-four percent of participants were willing to spend up to $1000 to prolong their pet's life a year, while 46% of the sample were willing to spend $3000 or more. Our results suggest that providing pet owners' information about the costs and likelihood of disease can increase their willingness to pay for pet insurance. Coverage of preventive care was the most valuable feature in pet insurance among those presented to dog owners.

Interactive algorithm for estimating consumer demand for tourism services for sustainable operation of the transport industry

The mass withdrawal from the tourism market and the bankruptcy of operators with many years of history show that there have been radical changes in this type of business. The digital economy, the rapid development of online services, aggregator sites change the structure of demand for travel, recreation and entertainment. First of all, it is necessary to take into account that the generation of zets becomes the most active consumer for these services. Since the global network has become the main source of information and a way of interaction for this age group, it is necessary to change the concept of supply. It is necessary to diversify the assortment sales matrix in addition to traditional vouchers. The expansion of the range of tourism products should be based not only on a deep analysis of market demand, but also on modern algorithms for processing large sets of consumer preference data. It is beneficial to take advantage of digital technologies. It is necessary to take into account a combination of two circumstances: on the one hand Internet surfing potential customers of tourist services, on the other the possibility of tour operators purchasing from search portals and sites aggregators of data on leads (lead), landing pages (Landing Page), CTR (Clickthrough Rate) and other tools of Internet marketing statistics. This work is devoted to the development of an algorithm for processing sets of data on consumer preferences and the development of an optimal market strategy for the supply of tourism services in a competitive business environment. Methods of stochastic optimization, mathematical theory of search for solutions in conditions of uncertainty, computer modeling have been used to solve the problem.

The Effect of Consideration Set on Market Structure

We estimate a choice-based aggregate demand model accounting for consumers" consideration sets, and study its implications on market structure. In contrast to past research, we model and estimate consumer demand using aggregate-level consumer browsing data in addition to aggregatelevel choice data. The use of consumer browsing data allows us to study consumer demand in a realistic setting in which consumers choose from a subset of products. We calibrate the proposed model on both data sets, avoid biases in parameter estimates, and compute the price elasticity measures. As an empirical application, we estimate consumer demand in the camcorder category and study its implications on market structure. The proposed model predicts a limited consumer price response and offers a more discriminating competitive landscape from the one assuming universal consideration set.

TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING: FORECASTING PERBANDINGAN PENUMPANG KERETA API DAN PESAWAT TERBANG

This research aims to predict the number of train and airplane passengers in 2020. Forecasting of train and airplane passengers is interest to analyze and estimate consumer demand to help the train or airline company prepare effective and efficient planning. This type of research is descriptive quantitative and uses data taken from the Indonesian Statistic Agency (BPS). Data were analyzed using Exponential smoothing Method. Train and airplane passenger data shows trend and seasonal patterns so that the exponential method used is Triple Exponential smoothing. The results of the study show that train passengers in 2020 are increase. While forecast results related to aircraft passengers in 2020 also tend to increase.

Penerapan Metode Peramalan untuk Identifikasi Permintaan Konsumen

The forecast model is done using data from several years before, with the involvement of time parameters in the forecast process is usable for the company to made an effective and efficient planning. Forecasting has an important role because the company requires short-term, medium-term and long-term estimates for each management. For short-term estimates, a company requires personnel, production and transportation scheduling, which is part of the process of scheduling and estimating consumer demand. In this study the results of three forecasting methods were compared, there is simple average, naïve and seasonal naive on demand data of PT SUPER SUKSES NIAGA to be further these three method measured its forecast accuracy using the value of MASE (Mean Absolute Square Error). From the results of data pre-processing consumers whose high value of demand are PT. DIESELINDO, PT. DUTA, PT. HEXINDO and PT. PANATAMA. The results of forecasting shown that the method that has the smallest MASE value is the simple moving average method.

The Value of Time: Evidence from Auctioned Cab Rides

We estimate valuations of time using detailed consumer choice data from a large European ride hail platform, where drivers bid on trips and consumers choose between a set of potential rides with different prices and waiting times. We estimate consumer demand as a function of prices and waiting times. While demand is responsive to both, price elasticities are on average four times higher than waiting-time elasticities. We show how these estimates can be mapped into values of time that vary by place, person, and time of day. Regarding variation within a day, the value of time during non-work hours is 16% lower than during work hours. Regarding the spatial dimension, our value of time measures are highly correlated both with real estate prices and urban GPS travel flows. We apply our measures to quantify the opportunity cost of traffic congestion in Prague, which we estimate at $483,000 per day.

Competitive Analysis among Multi-product Firms

We analyze and study competition in differentiated product market using public data source. Understanding competitive market structure is critical for firms to assess how their products compete against other firms in a given market. In this paper, we estimate consumer demand, extend clout and vulnerability framework, and study competition among multi-product manufacturers in differentiated product market. For our empirical analysis, we adopt choice-based aggregate demand model and estimate consumer demand while accounting for unobserved product characteristics. Once we estimate consumer demand, we compute full price elasticity matrix and investigate intra- and inter- manufacturer substitutions among consumers. This research offers a framework for marketers to analyze and understand market structures, leading them to informed decisions.

Competitive Analysis among Multi-product Firms

We analyze and study competition in differentiated product market using public data source. Understanding competitive market structure is critical for firms to assess how their products compete against other firms in a given market. In this paper, we estimate consumer demand, extend clout and vulnerability framework, and study competition among multi-product manufacturers in differentiated product market. For our empirical analysis, we adopt choice-based aggregate demand model and estimate consumer demand while accounting for unobserved product characteristics. Once we estimate consumer demand, we compute full price elasticity matrix and investigate intra- and inter- manufacturer substitutions among consumers. This research offers a framework for marketers to analyze and understand market structures, leading them to informed decisions.

Demand Curve Estimation of Locally Produced Woody Biomass Products

Abstract. The goal of the Waste-to-Wisdom project is to produce and sell value-added products derived from post-harvest forest residues including wood briquettes, torrefied briquettes, and biochar. The consumer demand for these products (i.e., market size) determines the success of manufacturers especially when the location of production is far away from a population center and the producer is a price taker. Consumers are often scattered and transportation costs from the factory to retail stores lower the net sales revenue at the plant. The objective of this study was to estimate the demand curves and the associated revenue functions of the bioenergy products in five case locations applying a market-based analysis. We first estimated the size of the potential market for the products in each location and then assumed a market penetration rate to estimate consumer demand. This information was used to develop a set of mathematical functions based on deductive logic. Plugging presumable values based on scenario assumptions into the models contributes to the economic feasibility studies. Keywords: Biochar, Forest products marketing, Market penetration rate, Price skimming strategy, Wood briquette.

Beyond the mean: Estimating consumer demand systems in the tails

The study proposes a novel approach to estimate price demand elasticities at the various levels of expenditures. Through the expectile estimator, the demand system can be estimated not only at the mean, as is generally done when implementing the OLS, but also at the lower and higher levels of expenditure. A simple demand system of equations focusing on five basic goods: Food, Recreation, Clothing, Transport, Rent, using the Canadian Family Expenditure Survey data was estimated. The comparison of the estimated elasticity of each commodity at the selected expectiles is tested to verify the statistical relevance of any difference among the estimates in the tails and those computed at the centre of the conditional distribution. The results show with a strong evidence that the elasticity of Food and Recreation grows across the expectiles. Clothing variations are less evident, while the Transport and Rent elasticity is basically constant across the expectiles.

Estimating Equilibrium in Health Insurance Exchanges: Price Competition and Subsidy Design Under the ACA

To design premium subsidies in a health insurance market it is necessary to estimate consumer demand and study how different subsidy schemes affect insurers’ incentives. Combining data from the Californian ACA marketplace with a model of insurance demand and insurers’ competition, I identify and estimate demand and cost primitives, and assess equilibrium outcomes under alternative subsidy designs. I find that vouchers are less distortionary than subsidies calculated from market premiums, and — given age-heterogeneity in demand and cost — tailoring subsidies to age leads to an equilibrium where all buyers are better off and per-person public spending is lower.

Information, branding, certification, and consumer willingness to pay for high-iron pearl millet: Evidence from experimental auctions in Maharashtra, India

In this paper we use hedonic testing methods adopted from food science literature and the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism adopted from economic valuation literature to estimate consumer demand for biofortified high-iron pearl millet (HIPM) in Maharashtra, India. Unlike biofortification with provitamin A, biofortification with minerals, such as iron and zinc, does not change the color or the appearance of the biofortified crop. Therefore, we test the impact of both nutrition information, and branding and certification, as well as the nature of the brand and of the certifying authority (state level versus international), on consumer demand for HIPM. We find that even in the absence of nutrition information, consumers assign a small but significant premium to the HIPM variety relative to the local variety. This is consistent with consumers’ more favorable rating of the sensory characteristics of the high-iron variety. Nutrition information on the health benefits of HIPM increases this premium substantially, and regression analysis reveals that consumers prefer international branding and international certification authority to their state-level counterparts.

Information and consumer willingness to pay for biofortified yellow cassava: evidence from experimental auctions in Nigeria

AbstractIn this article, we use the Becker‐DeGroot‐Marschak mechanism to estimate consumer demand for biofortified yellow cassava varieties in two states of Nigeria: Imo in the southeast and Oyo in the southwest. These two states exhibit distinct habitual product color preferences for staple food made with cassava. We estimate the effect of nutrition information campaigns and nature of planting material delivery institutions on consumer demand. Willingness to pay estimations account for the effect of product endowment, censoring in bids and nonpayment. In Oyo, consumers are willing to pay a premium for light yellow cassava variety even in the absence of nutrition information. The article finds that nutrition information results in a large and significant price premium for biofortified cassava in both states, and the nature of delivery institution has no significant effect.

Who should handle retail? Vertical contracts, customer service, and social welfare in a Chinese mobile phone market

Using data on mobile phone handset sales from a single retail store, we examine the impact of different retail responsibility designations and vertical contracts on seller service provision, firm profitability, and social welfare. During our sample, this store switched from retailer-managed retailing with linear pricing contracts to manufacturer-managed retailing with revenue-sharing contracts. We estimate consumer demand and manufacturer cost parameters. Demand estimates indicate a large positive shift that coincided with the vertical change, consistent with improved retail customer service. Welfare estimates suggest that consumers derived substantial surplus from the improved customer service in addition to that from lowered prices.