Estimated Yield Loss Research Articles

Estimation of Yield Loss Due to Potato Late Blight in Lukanga Village of Lubero Territory/Democratic Republic of the Congo

Estimation of Yield Loss Due to Potato Late Blight in Lukanga Village of Lubero Territory/Democratic Republic of the Congo

Sensitivity of soybean (Glycine max L.) pathogens Diaporthe aspalathi, D. caulivora, and D. longicolla to Difenoconazole and Fluopyram fungicides

Diseases of soybean (Glycine max L.) caused by species of Diaporthe have resulted in estimated yield losses totaling $248.2 million in the U.S. over the past 10 years. To effectively manage species of Diaporthe, it is important to use an integrated approach. In this study, we evaluated the in vitro sensitivity of isolates of the soybean pathogens Diaporthe aspalathi, D. caulivora, and D. longicolla from 18 U.S. states to difenoconazole (a demethylation inhibitor fungicide) and fluopyram (a succinate dehydrogenase inhibitor fungicide). The fungicides were incorporated into 2% water agar (WA) in petri dishes at various concentrations. A mycelial plug of each isolate (n=59 for difenoconazole and n=55 for fluopyram) obtained from a 7-day-old culture was placed at the center of the WA and incubated in the dark. After five days for D. caulivora and D. longicolla, and eight days for D. aspalathi, the colony diameter was measured, and the corresponding percent inhibition and effective concentration at which 50% mycelial growth was inhibited (EC50) were determined. Significant differences in EC50 values (P<0.0001) were observed among the isolates of D. aspalathi (0.227 µg/ml), D. caulivora (0.130 µg/ml), and D. longicolla (1.860 µg/ml) for difenoconazole. Similarly, for fluopyram, the EC50 values varied significantly (P<0.001) among the D. aspalathi (2.233 µg/ml), D. caulivora (1.610 µg/ml), and D. longicolla (0.347 µg/ml) isolates. This study established sensitivity profiles for difenoconazole and fluopyram fungicides for D. aspalathi, D. caulivora, and D. longicolla, and provides valuable information that may help in the development of Diaporthe disease management program.

Assessing Yield Disparities: Anticipated versus Optimal Rooftop Photovoltaic Systems and Implications for Prosumer Viability

Solar photovoltaics, especially rooftop systems also called distributed solar photovoltaics, are crucial in the ongoing energy transition. Modeling these systems is vital to understanding their role in a decentralized energy system. While ground‐mounted photovoltaic power plants are easier to model, generalizing yield profiles for rooftop systems is challenging. This study aims to estimate yield loss effects for rooftop solar photovoltaic systems compared to optimized ground‐mounted systems. Anticipated yield losses are 18% for residential, 7% for commercial, and 4% for industrial rooftop systems. The impact on residential prosumers’ viability is assessed by comparing prosumer system optimization results with and without yield losses. Results show a non‐uniform change in installed solar photovoltaic and battery capacities, with a tendency to compensate for reduced yields by increasing photovoltaic capacity by up to 20%, given favorable cost prospects by 2050. The annualized total cost of energy for prosumer households could therefore increase by up to 20% by 2050. Despite yield reductions, installing a solar photovoltaic prosumer system remains more favorable than relying entirely on‐grid electricity. This study highlights the importance of considering yield losses in rooftop solar photovoltaics and the significant role of prosumers despite identified yield losses.

Yield Yield loss and economic threshold estimates for pod borer (Helicoverpa armigera) in late maturing pigeonpea (Cajanus cajan)

Pod borer [Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner)] is a major biotic constraint to global pigeonpea production. The farmers largely apply synthetic insecticides to control this pest in pigeonpea. The study was conducted to quantify yield losses and estimate economic thresholds for H. armigera. The late maturing cultivar, IPA-203 was infested with different larval densities to determine the insect density-yield loss relationships. The yield response was variable and grain yield declined with increasing larval density from 1–5/plant. Yield loss of 4.56 kg/ha was evident for each unit increase in larval population. Economic threshold estimates indicated that the control measures for pod borer in IPA 203 cultivar should be initiated at an insect density of ≈1 larva/2 plants or at 3% pod damage to avoid the economic crop losses. The damage potential and economic threshold estimates are prerequisite for integrated pest management and reducing production costs (Alves et al. 2017). Present results indicated that relatively low infestations of H. armigera can cause significant yield reduction in pigeonpea hence intensive monitoring and timely control measures are necessary. Based on present economic threshold estimates, the farmers could decide the timing and kind of control measures to be initiated against pod borer in late pigeonpea cultivars to avert the economic losses.

Progresses in lowland pulse insect pest management in Ethiopia

Grain legumes are one of the important cash crops for Ethiopian smallholder farmers and a significant agricultural commodity contributing to export earnings. Lowland pulses are comparatively inexpensive sources of protein in Ethiopia. However, these economically important crops are affected by various pests. Among the most damaging in storage are bruchids (Acanthoscelides obtectus, Zabrotes subfasciatus, and Callosobruchus spp.), while in production fields, the primary pests include the bean stem maggot (Ophiomyia spp.), African bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), and aphids (Aphis craccivora Koch). Estimated yield losses due to bean stem maggot and African bollworm range from 11-100% and 12-16%, respectively. Various pest control strategies have been employed, including the use of resistant varieties, biological control, botanical treatments, and chemical control. This review summarizes relevant scientific studies on these economically important crops, the associated insect pests, the aggravating factors in Ethiopia, and available management options.

Cereal leaf beetle (Oulema spp.) damage reduces yield and is more severe when natural enemy action is prevented

Insect pests pose a global threat to crop yield. Biological control by natural enemies aims to reduce pest damage in a sustainable way. Cereal leaf beetles (CLB; Oulema spp.) are major pests in small-grain cereals. We studied the effect of natural enemies on CLB damage and its consequences on yield within its native distribution area in Europe. In exclusion cage experiments and by documenting a naturally occurring CLB damage gradient, we found that CLB damage reduced yield, but natural enemy action reduced the damage by CLB. Comparing exclusion and open treatments on artificially CLB-infested plants, plants accessible to natural enemies had 30% less leaf damage. CLB damage significantly affected yield parameters. Thousand grain weight was 22–29% less in maximum leaf damage scenarios. In the damage gradient field, maximal infestation reduced grain yield by 52%. However, maximal damage occurred only on a few plants and over small areas. In natural infestation cases, the number of CLB larvae per plant had a median of zero; nevertheless, there were more than 35 larvae on 10% of the plants. Patchiness explained 40% of CLB damage variance. Damage was unevenly distributed; as a result, thousand grain weight decreased only by 1.6% for 75% of the plants but by 18% for 10% of the plants. In the natural damage gradient, the estimated yield loss for the entire field was 16% due to CLB. Skewed CLB distribution may lead to perceptible yield losses locally, but natural enemies may limit overall damage to the crop.

Prediction of the global occurrence of maize diseases and estimation of yield loss under climate change.

Climate change significantly impacts global maize production via yield reduction, posing a threat to global food security. Disease-related crop damage reduces quality and yield and results in economic losses. However, the occurrence of diseases caused by climate change, and thus crop yield loss, has not been given much attention. This study aims to investigate the potential impact of six major diseases on maize yield loss over the next 20 to 80 years under climate change. To this end, the Maximum Entropy model was implemented, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 data. The results indicated that temperature and precipitation are identified as primary limiting factors for disease onset. Southern corn rust was projected to be the most severe disease in the future; with a few of the combined occurrence of all the selected diseases covered in this study were predicted to progressively worsen over time. Yield losses caused by diseases varied per continent, with North America facing the highest loss, followed by Asia, South America, Europe, Africa, and Oceania. This study provides a basis for regional projections and global control of maize diseases under future climate conditions. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Molecular characterization of Sweet potato feathery mottle virus and sweet potato yield loss due to its infection

Abstract. Wirya GNAS, Selangga DGW, Listihani L, Temaja IGRM, Sudiarta IP. 2024. Molecular characterization of Sweet potato feathery mottle virus and sweet potato yield loss due to its infection. Biodiversitas 25: 2355-2362. Sweet potatoes are one of the main sources of carbohydrates for Balinese. "Nasi selo," one of Bali's specialties, uses sweet potato as one of its main ingredients. For the past few years, cultivated sweet potatoes in Bali, Indonesia, manifested symptoms of diseases, particularly purple ring spots, occurring on its young and old leaves. The causative agent of the purple ring symptom is still unknown. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the molecular characteristics of SPFMV Bali isolate and the yield loss estimation it causes. Research methods that were used in this study are survey, sampling, virus identification with RT-PCR using universal Potyvirus as its primer, and field observation to assess the yield loss estimation. Field observation was conducted in five districts in Bali province: Badung, Gianyar, Bangli, Karangasem, and Klungkung. The result indicates that SPFMV infection has been found in these 5 districts, with the highest incidence and severity occurring in Bangli at 86% and 53%. The nucleotide homology of the SPFMV Bali isolates gene has the closest genetic relationship with isolates found in South Korea (MH388494, MH388494) and East Timor (MF572056), at >99%. Based on the latest phylogroup classification, SPFMV is categorized into phylogroups A and B. Phylogroup A consists of SPFMV with O-I strain, O-II strain, and EA strain; phylogroup B only consists of SPFMV with RC strain. Isolate SPFMV found in Bali, has an O strain that belongs to the same group as the O-I strain, also seen in South Korea, East Timor, and China. Actual yield loss that was found by comparing sweet potatoes suffering from purple rings symptom with the one without purple rings symptom reveals a yield loss of 50.9%. Harvested sweet potatoes with purple ring symptoms showed quality deterioration in malformation, discoloration, hollowing, and changes in color and shape. Yield loss of up to 29.53% in fields with a disease severity of 53% has caused a loss of IDR 2,105,166.

The wheat tan spot pathosystem in Australia: A showcase of effector‐assisted breeding

AbstractTan spot disease of wheat (also known as yellow spot) is caused by the necrotrophic fungal pathogen Pyrenophora tritici‐repentis (Ptr). Initially described as a grass pathogen, Ptr has become a wheat pathogen of global importance. In Australia, tan spot was first recorded in 1952 as a minor wheat disease. However, by the 1970s tan spot had reached epidemic levels in Australia with yield losses of up to 49% reported in the north‐eastern region. A national survey carried out in 2007/2008 placed tan spot as the most economically important wheat disease with an estimated yield loss of 6%, corresponding to nearly a quarter of all disease losses. The incidence of tan spot in Australia has now markedly reduced with some wheat breeding programmes no longer considering tan spot disease resistance to be a priority trait. The disease can be effectively managed with integrated control strategies such as crop rotation, timely application of fungicides and removal of surface stubble. However, the key to the success of controlling tan spot disease in Australia has been achieved through wheat breeding programmes. The development of tan spot resistance resources suitable for the Australian climate was a concerted effort between national and international research organizations and Australian wheat breeders, supported by the Australian Grains Research Development Corporation (GRDC). While traditional breeding was essential to combat the disease, this article highlights the value of effector biology in assisting the development of resistant cultivars.

Estimation of Yield Loss Due to Striped Disease in Peanut Plants in Palopo City, South Sulawesi

Palopo City is one of the peanut production centres in South Sulawesi. However, from 2008 to 2020, groundnut production in Palopo City has decreased. Recently, in South Sulawesi, it was reported that peanut stripe virus infection has spread widely and evenly in peanut plants. Symptoms of stripe disease include dark green and light green leaf colour, chlorosis, and can cause stunting. This study aims to determine the estimation of yield loss caused by stripe disease in peanut plants in Polopo City, South Sulawesi. This research was conducted in a farmer-owned groundnut field located in Purangi Village, Sendana Subdistrict, Palopo City, South Sulawesi, from January to May 2023. Parameters observed were plant height, disease severity and incidence, and yield loss. Observations were made 6 times on plants aged 4 to 9 weeks after planting. The results showed that the symptoms of striped disease showed that the growth of peanut plant height was inhibited, and caused a decrease in the number of pods, pod weight, and pod number. Disease severity increased to 57.2% and disease incidence to 46.6%. Yield loss caused by stripe symptoms in peanut plants was 43.78%, indicating that high disease severity and incidence can reduce yield.

Molecular profiling of rice (Oryza sativa L.) genotypes using trait-based SNP markers linked to yield under drought condition

Drought is one of the major abiotic stress factors affecting the growth and production of rice globally and it can cause an estimated yield loss up to 90% in rice. With the increasing population around the globe, a comprehensive approach for mitigating drought stress should be taken to develop drought-tolerant rice varieties to meet future food demands. One hundred and eighty-two rice genotypes were evaluated for six critical gene/QTLs associated with drought tolerance using SNP marker data. The results revealed that 172 genotypes carry at least one gene/QTL for drought tolerance. The six gene/QTLs, namely, DTY1.1, qDTY2.2, qDTY3.1, qDTY3.2, qDTY4.1 and qDTY12.1were found in 103, 26, 90, 25, 27 and 45 genotypes corresponding to 57, 49, 14, 14, 15 and 25% of the total screened genotypes, respectively. Remarkably, five genotypes (RL-32, RL-105, RL-110, RL-142 and RL-158) possessed a unique combination three major genes/QTLs and three genotypes (RL-21, RL-41 and RL-188) possessed a unique combination four major gene/QTLs for drought tolerance. Furthermore, both cluster and populationn structure analyses revealedd the distribution of the genotypes into two major clusters. The genotypes carrying valuable gene/QTLs either in single or combination, hold immense potential for deployment in drought tolerance rice breeding programs.

Estimation of Yield Losses Due to Major Insect Pests of Groundnut

A field experiment was carried to estimate the yield losses due to the groundnut leaf miner Aproaerema modicella (Deventer), tobacco caterpillar Spodoptera litura (F), leafhoppers Empoasca kerri (Pruthi) and thrips Scirtothrips dorsalis (Hood). The results showed the insect pests caused a significant reduction in plant height and other yield attributing characters. They caused a mean reduction of plant height (22%), primary branches (29.1%) reduction in pods/ plant (54.6%) and (44.5) reduction of kernels/ plant. There was a higher yield in the protected plots with 2050 kg/ ha due to spray of insecticides when compared to unprotected plots with 1123 kg/ ha, with a yield increase of 82.5%.

ANALIZA I ZARZĄDZANIE ROZWOJEM ORGANICZNEGO ROLNICTWA W KRAJACH EUROPY WSCHODNIEJ

The study analyses trends in domestic markets and international trade in organic products in some Eastern European countries based on a multifactorial comparative analysis in the regional context and estimates of yield losses about traditional agricultural land processing technologies. Prospects for the development of organic farming by region and in general are determined based on unused reserves of agricultural land suitable for this. The study assessed the organic production development in different regions of Poland and Ukraine: the annual growth rate of transitional and organic lands should be at least +13.3% to meet the strategic goal of reaching 3% of the total agricultural land by 2030.

Risk analysis and cacao pod survivorship curves to improve yield forecasting methods

Cocoa attainable yields are affected by a complex of pests and diseases in a particular agro-environment. Estimation of yield loss is critical for agronomic and economic decision-making at the farm level. For over 15 months, we monitored 1100 pods from six cocoa clones (PMCT-58, CC-137, CATIE-R1 CATIE-R4, ICS-95, and CCN-51) to assess the incidence of pests and diseases and to elucidate their survival behavior. Cocoa clones grow in a 12-year timber-based cocoa agroforestry plot (1330 cocoa plants ha-1, 100 shade trees ha-1, and 65% shade cover), in La Montaña, Turrialba, Costa Rica. Between 6-12 trees and 120-140 pods per clone of four size classes (very small – 2.5-7 cm, small – 7.1-14 cm, medium – 14.1-21 cm, and large – ≥21 cm) were tagged and measured fortnightly. Pods were selected at two vertical strata along the tree trunk (below and above 1.5 m) and grouped into three generations (rainy, transition, and dry). Competitive risk and survival analysis were performed per clone, generation, pod size class, and pod position along the tree trunk. Overall, pods reached maturity at the age of 155-165 days and were exposed to several hazards that disrupted their development. The Cox model that better described the cumulative risk during pod development included two covariables with substantial explicative power, generation, and clones. Regardless of clone and pod generation, a combination of diseases/pests accounted for about 45% to 65% of yield losses. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that pod survival was similar between generations but differed among clones within generations. Pods from CATIE-R1, CATIE-R4 and CC-137 clones showed greater survival rates than those of ICS-95, CCN-51 and PMCT-58 clones. The position of the pod along the tree trunk did not influence pod survival rates. We combined pod counting and pod survival rates calculated in this study and contrasted our yield estimations against a widely used prediction method proposed by a certification body. Overall, yield estimated using the UTZ method applied to 90-day-old pods of CATIE-R1 clone consistently overestimated yield predictions in the range of 27-45%. We proposed the combination of pod counting and pod index with a set of clone-specific discount factors; the survival rates, to reliably forecast on-farm cacao yields over time.

AIFARMS: Artificial intelligence for future agricultural resilience, management, and sustainability

AbstractThe AIFARMS Artificial Intelligence for Future Agricultural Resilience, Management, and Sustainability national AI institute brings together over 40 world‐class AI and agriculture researchers, with the common mission to develop foundational advances in AI and use them to ensure that future agriculture is environmentally friendly, sustainable, affordable, and accessible to diverse farming communities. Since its establishment in 2020, AIFARMS has advanced the state of the art in autonomous farming, cover crop planting, machine learning for improved outcomes from remote sensing, dynamic estimation of yield loss from weeds, and livestock management. The institute has prioritized the creation and utilization of high‐quality, openly available data sets for advancing foundational AI and tackling agricultural challenges. AIFARMS leverages a close partnership between UIUC and Tuskegee University to build programming for a skilled and diverse next‐generation workforce in digital agriculture. We are expanding the reach of AIFARMS outside of the current partners to collaborate with national AI institutions and international partners.

Seasonal Analysis of Yield and Loss Factors in Bt Soybean Crops in North Brazil

Tropical crops face significant challenges from abiotic and biotic stressors, resulting in substantial losses. This study aimed to assess the yield and losses in Bt soybean crops in Tocantins state, northern Brazil, during the 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 growing seasons. We monitored and estimated yield losses and their contributing factors in commercial fields, spanning dry and rainy seasons, from planting to harvest. Our findings revealed that crop yields remained consistent between the dry season (4349.85 kg/ha) and the rainy season (4206.51 kg/ha). Similarly, the overall yield loss showed no significant variation between seasons, with values of 902.86 kg/ha (dry) and 1007.92 kg/ha (rainy). Nevertheless, the factors contributing to these losses exhibited season-dependent variations. We observed higher plant mortality rates during the dry season, whereas insects (particularly stink bugs) and fungi were the primary contributors to grain yield losses during the rainy season. Conversely, losses due to flower abortion and pod malformation remained relatively consistent between the two seasons. Our study underscores the increase in soybean yield in one of Brazil’s agricultural frontiers. While overall yield and losses remained stable between dry and rainy seasons, the distinct seasonal patterns influencing yield losses call for nuanced and season-specific strategies in sustainable crop management.

Eco-Friendly Management Options for Sesame Webworm (Antigastra catalaunalis Dup.)

Background: Sesame (Sesamum indicum L; Pedaliaceae) is an important oilseed crop that contributes significantly to the Ethiopian economy through foreign exchange but it is heavily attacked by the sesame webworm which causes 83% yield loss. Objective: The aim was to evaluate efficacy of aqueous extracts of seven locally available bio-pesticides (Azadirachta indica, Lantana camara, Rumex patientia, Nicotiana glauca, Ricinus communis, Phytolacca dodecandra and Tagetes minuta) along with dimethoate 40% EC (standard test) and untreated control (only tap water) against sesame webworm (Antigastra catalaunalis) insect pest, and its effects on sesame yield and yield losses under outdoor conditions. Methods: Field experiment was conducted at Humera agricultural research center during the 2020 harvest season. Treatments were arranged in a randomized complete block design with 3 replications and applied 3 times at 2-week intervals. Results: ANOVA results showed that all aqueous extracts were significantly (P<0.05) higher than the control. Uninterrupted growth of the test insect resulted in an incidence of 82.59%. However, it was decreased to 28.89% and 29.63% by spraying A. indica and R. Communis aqueous extracts. A. indica was statistically equivalent to R. communis and dimethoate 40% EC in reducing damage to leaves (8.56%), flowers (10.20%), capsules (3.34%) and seeds (29.67%) yet significantly different from controls which scored 21.8%, 20.88%, 11.51%, and 79.34%, leaf, flower, capsule, and seed damage respectively. R. communis also effectively condensed injuries on leaves (8.68%), flowers (12.64%), capsules (2.66%) and seeds (23.42%). Likewise, aqueous solutions of A. indica showed impressive yields (0.71 t ha-1) followed by R. communis (0.53 t ha-1) compared with the control (0.22 t ha-1). Yield increase over control was also higher for A. indica (222.73%) and R. communis (140.91%) compared to other treatments. The maximum (69.01%) estimated yield loss was recorded in control plots due to webworm invasion in sesame. Conclusion: From this result, it can be concluded that A. indica and R. communis can be excellent substitutes for synthetic insecticides to increase sesame yield under outdoor conditions.

Effects of Bio-rational Insecticides on Diamondback Moth (Plutella xylostella L.) and Cabbage Aphid (Brevicoryne brassicae L.) on Cabbage

Background: Cabbage is a subsistence crop for smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. Diamondback moths and cabbage aphids are among the devastating insects that cause yield losses of 90% and 30%. Objective: The aim was to test the efficacy of the bio-rational insecticides against diamondback moth and cabbage aphids, and their effect on cabbage yield and yield loss. Methods: A field experiment was conducted at the Gumsalasa micro dam with furrow irrigation during 2019/20 in Northern Ethiopia. Treatments were arranged in RCB design and replicated thrice. The experiment included five bio-rational insecticides; (R. obtusifolius), (P. dodecandra), (N. glauca), (T. minuta), (A. indica), Karate 5% EC (standard test), and control. Results: Phytolacca dodecandra aqueous leaf extract showed inspiring results, reducing diamondback moth larvae to 0.13 and aphid colonies to 0.16, 48 hours after the 4th spraying, leading to a higher (40.28 t ha-1) fresh cabbage yield followed by A.indica, which had reduced the invasion of diamondback moth and aphid colonies to 0.20 and 0.40 and the yield was recorded as 27.69 t ha-1 compared with 2.46 and 5.53 diamondback moth and aphid colonies, and 23.86 t ha-1 cabbage yield in the control group. Similarly, aqueous extracts of P. dodecandra showed a commendable yield (68.82%) increment over the control, and an estimated yield loss of 40.76% was recorded from the control plots due to the tested insect pests. Conclusion: This study concludes that foliar extracts of P. dodecandra can be used as an alternative management option to replace synthetic insecticides and thereby maintain food security.

Screening of Lentil Germplasm against Stemphylium Blight and Studies on Association between Disease and Biochemical Parameters

Background: Stemphylium blight, an important fungal disease of lentil caused by Stemphylium botryosum Wallr, has been reported to cause an estimated yield loss of 62% in India and Bangladesh. Considering the importance of the crop vis-à-vis the severity of the disease under terai agro-climatic region of West Bengal, the present study was undertaken to evaluate the germplasm of lentil for Stemphylium blight resistance for their utilization in future resistance breeding programme. Methods: The present experiment was carried out during the rabi season of 2019-20 and 2020-21 with forty lentil germplasm including two checks viz; WBL77 and IPL220 in an alpha lattice design under field condition and in completely randomized design under artificial inoculation respectively. Statistical analysis was carried out using R v. 4.1.1 software. Result: ANOVA revealed significant variation among the genotypes for the studied characters. PCV was found to be higher than GCV for all the studied characters. High heritability (broad sense) accompanied with high genetic advance as percent of mean indicated the presence of additive type of gene action. Based on per cent disease index germplasm were categorized as resistant or moderately resistant types for both under field condition and artificial inoculation. AUDPC was significantly but negatively associated with change in phenol and change in OD phenol under field condition same as that was observed between AUDPC and PPO content under artificial inoculation. Above study state that selection based on disease reaction and their associated parameters gives fruitful result to provide disease resistance parent against Stemphylium blight.

Impacts of reduced synthetic fertiliser use under current and future climates: Exploration using integrated agroecosystem modelling in the upper River Taw observatory, UK

The intensification of farming and increased nitrogen fertiliser use, to satisfy the growing population demand, contributed to the extant climate change crisis. Use of synthetic fertilisers in agriculture is a significant source of anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, especially potent nitrous oxide (N2O). To achieve the ambitious policy target for net zero by 2050 in the UK, it is crucial to understand the impacts of potential reductions in fertiliser use on multiple ecosystem services, including crop production, GHG emissions and soil organic carbon (SOC) storge. A novel integrated modelling approach using three established agroecosystem models (SPACSYS, CSM and RothC) was implemented to evaluate the associated impacts of fertiliser reduction (10%, 30% and 50%) under current and projected climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in a study catchment in Southwest England. 48 unique combinations of soil types, climate conditions and fertiliser inputs were evaluated for five major arable crops plus improved grassland. With a 30% reduction in fertiliser inputs, the estimated yield loss under current climate ranged between 11% and 30% for arable crops compared with a 20–24% and 6–22% reduction in N2O and methane emissions, respectively. Biomass was reduced by 10–25% aboveground and by <12% for the root system. Relative to the baseline scenario, soil type dependent reductions in SOC sequestration rates are predicted under future climate with reductions in fertiliser inputs. Losses in SOC were more than doubled under the RCP4.5 scenario. The emissions from energy use, including embedded emissions from fertiliser manufacture, was a significant source (14–48%) for all arable crops and the associated GWP20.