Estimates Of Relative Changes Research Articles

Impacts of Permeability Uncertainty in a Coupled Surface‐Subsurface Flow Model Under Perturbed Recharge Scenarios

AbstractCoupled simulations of surface and variably saturated subsurface flow, termed integrated hydrologic models (IHMs), can provide powerful insights into the complex dynamics of watersheds. The system of governing equations solved by an IHM is non‐linear, making them a significant computational burden and challenging to accurately parameterize. Consequently, a large fraction of the IHM studies to date have been “numerical hypothesis testing” studies, but, as parallel computing continues to improve, IHMs are approaching the point where they might also be useful as predictive tools. For this to become reality, the predictive uncertainty of such highly parameterized simulations must be considered. However, uncertainty is seldom considered in the IHM literature, likely due to the long runtimes of the complex simulations. The questions considered herein are how much uncertainty is there in an IHM for a common watershed simulation scenario, and how likely is it that any one realization of a system will give the same relative change as any other due to a perturbation in recharge? A stochastic ensemble of 250 permeability field realizations was used to show that uncertainty in a high‐mountain headwaters systems is dominated by the subsurface. Recharge perturbation scenarios echo these results, but the uncertainty of changes in streamflow or groundwater pressure heads were significantly smaller than the uncertainty in their base‐case values. The main finding is that IHMs do provide confident, predictive estimates of relative changes in watersheds, even when uncertainty in specific simulation outputs may be high.

Influence of oversimplifying the head anatomy on cerebral blood flow measurements with diffuse correlation spectroscopy.

Diffuse correlation spectroscopy (DCS) is an emerging optical modality for non-invasive assessment of an index of regional cerebral blood flow. By the nature of this noninvasive measurement, light must pass through extracerebral layers (i.e., skull, scalp, and cerebral spinal fluid) before detection at the tissue surface. To minimize the contribution of these extracerebral layers to the measured signal, an analytical model has been developed that treats the head as a series of three parallel and infinitely extending slabs (mimicking scalp, skull, and brain). The three-layer model has been shown to provide a significant improvement in cerebral blood flow estimation over the typically used model that treats the head as a bulk homogenous medium. However, the three-layer model is still a gross oversimplification of the head geometry that ignores head curvature, the presence of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and heterogeneity in layer thickness. Determine the influence of oversimplifying the head geometry on cerebral blood flow estimated with the three-layer model. Data were simulated with Monte Carlo in a four-layer slab medium and a three-layer sphere medium to isolate the influence of CSF and curvature, respectively. Additionally, simulations were performed on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) head templates spanning a wide-range of ages. Simulated data were fit to both the homogenous and three-layer model for CBF. Finally, to mitigate the errors in potential CBF estimation due to the difficulty in defining layer thickness, we investigated an approach to identify an equivalent, "optimized" thickness via a pressure modulation. Both head curvature and failing to account for CSF lead to significant errors in the estimation of CBF. However, the effect of curvature and CSF on relative changes in CBF is minimal. Further, we found that CBF was underestimated in all MRI-templates, although the magnitude of these underestimations was highly influenced by small variations in the source and detector optode positioning. The optimized thickness obtained from pressure modulation did not improve estimation accuracy of CBF, although it did significantly improve the estimation accuracy of relative changes in CBF. In sum, these findings suggest that the three-layer model holds promise for improving estimation of relative changes in cerebral blood flow; however, estimations of absolute cerebral blood flow with the approach should be viewed with caution given that it is difficult to account for appreciable sources of error, such as curvature and CSF.

Modelling the impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of tsetse in Northern Zimbabwe

BackgroundClimate change is predicted to impact the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Tsetse flies (Glossina) transmit species of Trypanosoma that cause human and animal African trypanosomiasis. A previous modelling study showed that temperature increases between 1990 and 2017 can explain the observed decline in abundance of tsetse at a single site in the Mana Pools National Park of Zimbabwe. Here, we apply a mechanistic model of tsetse population dynamics to predict how increases in temperature may have changed the distribution and relative abundance of Glossina pallidipes across northern Zimbabwe.MethodsLocal weather station temperature measurements were previously used to fit the mechanistic model to longitudinal G. pallidipes catch data. To extend the use of the model, we converted MODIS land surface temperature to air temperature, compared the converted temperatures with available weather station data to confirm they aligned, and then re-fitted the mechanistic model using G. pallidipes catch data and air temperature estimates. We projected this fitted model across northern Zimbabwe, using simulations at a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, between 2000 to 2016.ResultsWe produced estimates of relative changes in G. pallidipes mortality, larviposition, emergence rates and abundance, for northern Zimbabwe. Our model predicts decreasing tsetse populations within low elevation areas in response to increasing temperature trends during 2000–2016. Conversely, we show that high elevation areas (> 1000 m above sea level), previously considered too cold to sustain tsetse, may now be climatically suitable.ConclusionsTo our knowledge, the results of this research represent the first regional-scale assessment of temperature related tsetse population dynamics, and the first high spatial-resolution estimates of this metric for northern Zimbabwe. Our results suggest that tsetse abundance may have declined across much of the Zambezi Valley in response to changing climatic conditions during the study period. Future research including empirical studies is planned to improve model accuracy and validate predictions for other field sites in Zimbabwe.

A multipixel diffuse correlation spectroscopy system based on a single photon avalanche diode array.

The autocorrelation of laser speckles from coherent near infrared light is used for noninvasive estimates of relative changes in blood perfusion in techniques such as laser Doppler flowmetry (LDF) and diffuse correlation spectroscopy (DCS). In this study, a 2D array of single photon avalanche diodes (SPADs) was used to combine the strengths of multiple detectors in LDF with high light sensitivity in DCS. The system was tested on milk phantoms with varying detector fiber diameter (200 and 600 μm), source-detector fiber separation (4.6-10.2 mm), fiber-SPAD distance (2.5-36.5 mm), contiguous measurement time per repetition for the autocorrelation (1-33 ms) and temperature (15.6-46.7°C). An in vivo blood occlusion test was also performed. The multipixel approach improved signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and, in our setup, the use of a multimode detector fiber was beneficial for SNR. In conclusion, the multipixel system works, but improvements and further studies regarding, for example, the data acquisition and optimal settings are still needed.

Development and validation of a kinematically-driven discrete element model of the patellofemoral joint

Quantifying the complex loads at the patellofemoral joint (PFJ) is vital to understanding the development of PFJ pain and osteoarthritis. Discrete element analysis (DEA) is a computationally efficient method to estimate cartilage contact stresses with potential application at the PFJ to better understand PFJ mechanics. The current study validated a DEA modeling framework driven by PFJ kinematics to predict experimentally-measured PFJ contact stress distributions. Two cadaveric knee specimens underwent quadriceps muscle [215 N] and joint compression [350 N] forces at ten discrete knee positions representing PFJ positions during early gait while measured PFJ kinematics were used to drive specimen-specific DEA models. DEA-computed contact stress and area were compared to experimentally-measured data. There was good agreement between computed and measured mean and peak stress across the specimens and positions (r = 0.63–0.85). DEA-computed mean stress was within an average of 12% (range: 1–47%) of the experimentally-measured mean stress while DEA-computed peak stress was within an average of 22% (range: 1–40%). Stress magnitudes were within the ranges measured (0.17–1.26 MPa computationally vs 0.12–1.13 MPa experimentally). DEA-computed areas overestimated measured areas (average error = 60%; range: 4–117%) with magnitudes ranging from 139 to 307 mm2 computationally vs 74–194 mm2 experimentally. DEA estimates of the ratio of lateral to medial patellofemoral stress distribution predicted the experimental data well (mean error = 15%) with minimal measurement bias. These results indicate that kinematically-driven DEA models can provide good estimates of relative changes in PFJ contact stress.

Closed-Loop Fluid Resuscitation Control Via Blood Volume Estimation

This paper presents a closed-loop control of fluid resuscitation to overcome hypovolemia based on model-based estimation of relative changes in blood volume (BV). In this approach, the control system consists of a model-based relative BV (RBV) estimator and a feedback controller. The former predicts relative changes in the BV response to augmented fluid by analyzing an arterial blood pressure (BP) waveform and the electrocardiogram (ECG). Then, the latter determines the amount of fluid to be augmented by comparing target versus predicted relative changes in BV. In this way, unlike many previous methods for fluid resuscitation based on controlled variable(s) nonlinearly correlated with the changes in BV, fluid resuscitation can be guided by a controlled variable linearly correlated with the changes in BV. This paper reports initial design of the closed-loop fluid resuscitation system and its in silico evaluation in a wide range of hypovolemic scenarios. The results suggest that closed-loop fluid resuscitation guided by a controlled variable linearly correlated with the changes in BV can be effective in overcoming hypovolemia: across 100 randomly produced hypovolemia cases, it resulted in the BV regulation error of 7.98 ± 171.6 ml, amounting to 0.18 ± 3.04% of the underlying BV. When guided by pulse pressure (PP), a classical controlled variable nonlinearly correlated with the changes in BV; the same closed-loop fluid resuscitation system resulted in persistent under-resuscitation with the BV regulation error of −779.1 ± 147.4 ml, amounting to −13.9 ± 2.65% of the underlying BV.

Uncertainty in future irrigation water demand and risk of crop failure for maize in Europe

While crop models are widely used to assess the change in crop productivity with climate change, their skill in assessing irrigation water demand or the risk of crop failure in large area impact assessments is relatively unknown. The objective of this study is to investigate which aspects of modeling crop water use (reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0), soil water extraction, soil evaporation, soil water balance and root growth) contributes most to the variability in estimates of maize crop water use and the risk of crop failure, and demonstrate the resulting uncertainty in a climate change impact study for Europe. The SIMPLACE crop modeling framework was used to couple the LINTUL5 crop model in factorial combinations of 2–3 different approaches for simulating the 5 aspects of crop water use, resulting in 51 modeling approaches. Using experiments in France and New Zeland, analysis of total sensitivity revealed that ET0 explained the most variability in both irrigated maize water use and rainfed grain yield levels, with soil evaporation also imporatant in the French experiment. In the European impact study, net irrigation requirement differed by 36% between the Penman and Hargreaves ET0 methods in the baseline period. Average EU grain yields were similar between models, but differences approached 1–2 tonnes in parts of France and Southern Europe. EU wide esimates of crop failure in the historical period ranged between 5.4 years for Priestley–Taylor to every 7.9 years for the Penman ET0 methods. While the uncertainty in absolute values between models was significant, estimates of relative changes were similar between models, confirming the utility of crop models in assessing climate change impacts. If ET0 estimates in crop models can be improved, through the use of appropriate methods, uncertainty in irrigation water demand as well as in yield estimates under drought can be reduced.

Stable 18O and 13C isotope records of Viviparus diluvianus (Kunth, 1865) shells from Holsteinian (MIS 11) lakes of eastern Poland as palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic proxies

The oxygen and carbon stable isotope composition of Viviparus diluvianus shells was determined in the palaeolakes of the Holsteinian interglacial (MIS 11) in eastern Poland: the Ortel Królewski, Hrud, Ossówka, Roskosz and Szymanowo lakes. The occurrence of V. diluvianus covers the Taxus zone, the so‐called intra‐interglacial cooling period (Pinus‐Larix zone), the climatic optimum (Carpinus‐Abies zone) and the post‐optimal period with an undefined pollen zone. The isotope record of V. diluvianus shells allowed palaeoclimate and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions. δ18O and δ13C vary from −8.7‰ in the post‐optimal period to −4.8‰ in the optimal period, and from −10.6‰ at the beginning of the Taxus zone to −4.2‰ at the climatic optimum, respectively. A positive correlation of the isotope curves indicates closed‐water bodies, and only at Roskosz was some occasional overflow inferred. Higher oxygen isotopes correspond to an increase in temperature and/or enhanced evaporation, which is well marked in the Carpinus‐Abies zone, whereas samples enriched in 13C are correlated with periods demonstrating a lower water level and higher productivity in the lakes. Episodes of lake shallowing and dense aquatic vegetation occurred in the Pinus‐Larix zone and during the climatic optimum. The isotope ratios for the climatic optimum significantly exceed those of the other periods, thus pointing to warmer conditions. An estimation of relative changes of average summer temperatures using the δ18O/temperature gradient yielded variation of 1–2 °C within the lakes. Absolute temperature reconstructions indicate the effects of specific local conditions. Hence, V. diluvianus shells offer a reliable proxy in qualitative studies of interglacial lake records.

A novel approach combining real-time imaging and the patch-clamp technique to calibrate FRET-based reporters for cAMP in their cellular microenvironment.

Fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET)-based reporters are invaluable tools to study spatiotemporal aspects of cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) signaling and compartmentalization in living cells. These sensors allow estimation of relative changes of cAMP levels in real-time and intact cells. However, one of their major shortcomings is that they do not easily allow direct measurement of cAMP concentrations. This is mainly due to the fact that the methods to calibrate these sensors in their physiological microenvironment are not generally available. All published approaches to calibrate FRET-based reporters rely at least in part on data derived under nonphysiological conditions. Here, we present a protocol to calibrate FRET reporters completely "in cell." We introduce a combination of FRET imaging of cAMP and the whole-cell patch-clamp techniques to microinfuse or dilute intracellular cAMP to known concentrations. This method represents a general tool to accurately estimate intracellular cAMP concentrations by allocating concentration values to FRET ratio changes.

Two-Probe Microfluorometry Estimation of Transmembrane Potential (ΔΨ p) Slight Changes in Individual Hepatocytes Under Short-Term Hormone Action

Early events in individual hepatocytes of rat activated by adrenaline (10(-6)M) and phenylephrine (10(-5)M) have been investigated by quantitative image microfluorometry and microspectrofluorometry. Cationic DiOC2 and anionic SqSC4 probes have been used for image analysis and transmembrane potential (ΔΨ p) estimation in real-time studies. Fluorescence spectra resulting from the accumulation of dyes in single cells were recorded. Based on the mean fluorescence intensity, the magnitude of ΔΨ p was calculated by Nernst equation adapted for lipophilic cationic probes. DiOC2 has revealed that both hormones induce biphasic hyperpolarization of hepatocytes membrane with α-agonist phenylephrine causing ΔΨ p changes at higher amplitude. The first increase of ΔΨ p within 2 and 5 min (ΔΔΨ p = -8.6 ± 4.2 mV) apparently related to Na(+)/K(+)-ATPase activation by the Ca(2+)-mobilizing hormone. The second peak of hyperpolarization (ΔΔΨ p = -13.2 ± 3.2 mV) between 25 and 30 min, after a transient decrease of ΔΨ p (ΔΔΨ p = 10.9 ± 4.3 mV) over 15 min experiment, probably is mediated by phenylephrine stimulating action on K(+)-channels. K(+) channel blocker (Ba(2+) or 4-aminopyridine) as well as elevating of extracellular K(+) prevented the hyperpolarization. Modulation of PLD-dependent signal transduction pathway by 0.4% butanol had a weak influence on the first increase of ΔΨ p but it abolished the second phase of hyperpolarization. That points to PLD involvement in the ΔΨ p fluctuations mediated by K(+)-channels in response to phenylephrine. Based on SqSC4, fluorescent parameters estimation of relative changes of ΔΨ p revealed similar character of time dependence with two phases of hyperpolarization. Synchronic fluctuation of ΔΨ p determined by oppositely charged probes demonstrate that the quantitative microfluorometry allows to evaluate slight ΔΨ p changes separately from ΔΨ m in non-excitable individual cells at the short-term hormone action.

How reliable are projections of future flood damage?

Abstract. Flood damage modelling is an important component in flood risk management, and several studies have investigated the possible range of flood damage in the coming decades. Generally, flood damage assessments are still characterized by considerable uncertainties in stage-damage functions and methodological differences in estimating exposed asset values. The high variance that is commonly associated with absolute flood damage assessments is the reason for the present study that investigates the reliability of estimates of relative changes in the development of potential flood damage. While studies that estimate (relative) changes in flood damage over time usually address uncertainties resulting from different projections (e.g. land-use characteristics), the influence of different flood damage modelling approaches on estimates of relative changes in the development of flood damage is largely unknown. In this paper, we evaluate the reliability of estimates of relative changes in flood damage along the river Rhine between 1990 and 2030 in terms of different flood-damage modelling approaches. The results show that relative estimates of flood damage developments differ by a factor of 1.4. These variations, which result from the application of different modelling approaches, are considerably smaller than differences between the approaches in terms of absolute damage estimates (by a factor of 3.5 to 3.8), or than differences resulting from land-use projections (by a factor of 3). The differences that exist when estimating relative changes principally depend on the differences in damage functions. In order to improve the reliability of relative estimates of changes in the development of potential flood damage, future research should focus on reducing the uncertainties related to damage functions.

Characterization of high intensity focused ultrasound induced thermal lesions from changes in ultrasound backscatter.

Although good results have already been obtained, notably in urology, ultrasound‐guided HIFU devices lack a real time monitoring system different from conventional B‐mode ultrasound imaging to check the efficacy of the treatment procedures. This presentation describes the development and assessment of several noninvasive procedures developed in our laboratory for making local measurements of attenuation variations, strain changes, and/or temperature increases during HIFU treatment procedures. The techniques to characterize lesions generated by HIFU are based on estimation of relative changes in tissue properties derived from backscattered rf data. Our recent work has demonstrated good agreements between ultrasound backscattering changes versus temperature increase and thermocouple measurements. In ex vivo liver samples, a linear relationship between changes in the radiofrequency signal and temperature was found for temperatures up to 90 °C. Using differential imaging, any issues related to the heterogenei...

Assessing body fat changes during moderate weight loss with anthropometry and bioelectrical impedance

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Monitoring changes in total fat mass and abdominal adiposity are important in understanding the impact of different types of weight loss interventions on health risks. Our objective was to assess the usefulness of anthropometry and bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) in predicting fat mass changes during moderate weight loss. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Fat mass changes were assessed in 34 overweight adults (24 females, 10 males) after a 12-week supervised weight loss induced by caloric restriction (-30% of requirement) using BIA and DXA. Agreement between BIA and DXA measurements were assessed by Bland-Altman plots. Linear regression modeling was used to predict body and truncal fat mass from anthropometric measures. RESULTS: Diet intervention resulted in a significant decrease in body weight (- 7.86 ± 2.87 kg), body mass index (BMI - 2.69 ± 0.98 kg/m(2)), total body fat (- 5.22 ± 2.32 kg), truncal fat (- 2.80 ± 1.94 kg) and waist circumference (- 5.52 ± 3.57 cm). BMI and body weight were highly correlated with body fat (0.83 and 0.92 in females and 0.94 and 0.92 in males respectively) and truncal fat (0.75 and 0.87 in females; 0.90 and 0.84 in males respectively) during weight loss. Waist circumference was more correlated with truncal fat in males than females (0.94 vs. 0.85 in females). Compared to DXA, BIA underestimated total body fat changes in males (- 8.8 kg, p<0.001) and overestimated total body fat changes in females (+ 2.1 kg, p< 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Body mass index, body weight, and waist circumference provide simple and more accurate than BIA estimates of relative changes in total and truncal fat during moderate weight loss in adults.

Modelling carcinogenesis after radiotherapy using Poisson statistics: implications for IMRT,protons and ions

Current technical radiotherapy advances aim to (a) better conform the dose contours tocancers and (b) reduce the integral dose exposure and thereby minimise unnecessary doseexposure to normal tissues unaffected by the cancer. Various types of conformal andintensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) using x-rays can achieve (a) while chargedparticle therapy (CPT)—using proton and ion beams—can achieve both (a) and (b), but atgreater financial cost.Not only is the long term risk of radiation related normal tissue complications important,but so is the risk of carcinogenesis. Physical dose distribution plans can be generated toshow the differences between the above techniques. IMRT is associated with a dose bath oflow to medium dose due to fluence transfer: dose is effectively transferred from designatedorgans at risk to other areas; thus dose and risk are transferred. Many clinicians areconcerned that there may be additional carcinogenesis many years after IMRT. CPTreduces the total energy deposition in the body and offers many potential advantages interms of the prospects for better quality of life along with cancer cure. With C ions there isa tail of dose beyond the Bragg peaks, due to nuclear fragmentation; this is notfound with protons. CPT generally uses higher linear energy transfer (whichvaries with particle and energy), which carries a higher relative risk of malignantinduction, but also of cell death quantified by the relative biological effect concept, soat higher dose levels the frank development of malignancy should be reduced.Standard linear radioprotection models have been used to show a reduction incarcinogenesis risk of between two- and 15-fold depending on the CPT location. But thestandard risk models make no allowance for fractionation and some have a dose limit at4 Gy. Alternatively, tentative application of the linear quadratic model and Poissonianstatistics to chromosome breakage and cell kill simultaneously allows estimationof relative changes in carcinogenesis that incorporate fractionation and relativebiological effects (RBE). This alternative modelling approach allows absolute andrelative risk estimations per cell and can be extended to tissues. The classicalturnover point in carcinogenesis occurring after a single exposure is a featureof the model; also, the dose–response relationship becomes pseudo-linear withextended fractionation and when heterogeneity of the radiosensitivity parameters isintroduced; there is also an inverse relationship between dose per fraction and cancerinduction. In principle, this new approach might influence the conduct of protonand ion beam therapy, particularly beam placements and fractionation policies.The theoretical implications for future radiotherapy are considerable, but thesepredictions should be subjected to cellular and tissue experiments that simulate theseforms of treatment, including any secondary neutron production in some casesdepending on the beam delivery technique, e.g. in tissue equivalent humanoidphantoms using cell transformation techniques. Since the UK has no workinghigh energy particle beam facility over 100 MeV, British scientists would requireuse of particle beam facilities in Europe, USA or Japan to perform experiments.

Numerical calculations of relativistic electron drift loss effect

It has been suggested that drift loss to the magnetopause can be one of the major loss mechanisms contributing to relativistic electron flux dropouts. In this study, we examine details of relativistic electrons' drift physics to determine the extent to which the drift loss through the magnetopause is important to the total loss of the outer radiation belt. We have numerically computed drift paths of relativistic electrons' guiding center for various pitch angles, various measurement positions, and different solar wind conditions using the Tsyganenko T02 model. We specifically demonstrate how the drift loss effect depends on these various parameters. Most importantly, we present various estimates of relative changes of the omnidirectional flux of 1 MeV electrons between two different solar wind conditions based on a simple form of the directional flux function. For a change of the dynamic pressure from 4 nPa to 10 nPa with a fixed IMF BZ = 0 nT, our estimate indicates that after this increase in pressure, the equatorial omnidirectional flux at midnight near geosynchronous altitude decreases by ∼56 to ∼97%, depending on the specific pitch angle dependence of the directional flux. The effect rapidly decreases at regions earthward of geosynchronous orbit and shows a general trend of decrease away from midnight. For a change of the IMF BZ from 0 nT to −15 nT with a fixed dynamic pressure of 4 nPa, the relative decrease of the omnidirectional flux at geosynchronous altitude on the nightside is much smaller than that for the pressure increase, but its effect becomes substantial only beyond geosynchronous orbit. Possibilities exist that our results may change to some extent for a different magnetospheric model than the one used here.

Rethinking the Assessment of Photochemical Modeling Systems in Air Quality Planning Applications

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency provides guidelines for demonstrating that future 8-hr ozone (O3) design values will be at or below the National Ambient Air Quality Standards on the basis of the application of photochemical modeling systems to simulate the effect of emission reductions. These guidelines also require assessment of the model simulation against observations. In this study, we examined the link between the simulated relative responses to emission reductions and model performance as measured by operational evaluation metrics, a part of the model evaluation required by the guidance, which often is the cornerstone of model evaluation in many practical applications. To this end, summertime O3 concentrations were simulated with two modeling systems for both 2002 and 2009 emission conditions. One of these two modeling systems was applied with two different parameterizations for vertical mixing. Comparison of the simulated base-case 8-hr daily maximum O3 concentrations showed marked model-to-model differences of up to 20 ppb, resulting in significant differences in operational model performance measures. In contrast, only relatively minor differences were detected in the relative response of O3 concentrations to emission reductions, resulting in differences of a few ppb or less in estimated future year design values. These findings imply that operational model evaluation metrics provide little insight into the reliability of the actual model application in the regulatory setting (i.e., the estimation of relative changes). In agreement with the guidance, it is argued that more emphasis should be placed on the diagnostic evaluation of O3-precursor relationships and on the development and application of dynamic and retrospective evaluation approaches in which the response of the model to changes in meteorology and emissions is compared with observed changes. As an example, simulated relative O3 changes between 1995 and 2007 are compared against observed changes. It is suggested that such retrospective studies can serve as the starting point for targeted diagnostic studies in which individual aspects of the modeling system are evaluated and refined to improve the characterization of observed changes.

Time-dependent stress change during failure of rocks

The energy balance of a solid subject to fracture has been explored using heat and mass transfer equations with regard to the volumetric and superficial components. In the suggested model, brittle fracture of a cracked solid considered as a heterogeneous two-phase medium is described by an equation analogous to the Griffith’s criterion for propagation of a single crack. The derived equation is used, together with estimates of relative change in specific interface area, to study the respective change of free strain energy and pressure in rocks associated with failure.

Differential ultrasonic imaging for the characterization of lesions induced by high intensity focused ultrasound

High intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) is an effective technique for noninvasive local creating coagulative necrotic lesions in deep target volumes without damage to the overlaying or surrounding tissues. It is very important to detect and evaluate lesions generated by HIFU during treatment procedures. This study describes the development of several differential ultrasonic imaging techniques to characterize lesions based on estimation of relative changes in tissue properties derived from backscattered RF data. A single, spherical HIFU transducer was used to produce lesions in soft tissues. The RF signals were recorded as outputs from a modified diagnostic ultrasound system. After some preprocessing, the integrated backscatter values, which can be used as an indicator of the microstructure and backscattering property of tissues, were calculated before and after HIFU treatment. The differential integrated backscatter values were subsequently used to form images revealing the lesion areas. The differential attenuation imaging with the same RF data was also performed, which has been proposed by a few researchers. The results of the differential integrated backscatter imaging were compared with that of the differential attenuation imaging and the former method offers some advantages over the latter method. The two methods above are both based on spectrum analysis and would spend much computational time. Therefore, some simple digital differential imaging methods, including absolute difference (AD), sum absolute differences (SAD), and sum squared differences (SSD) algorithms, were also proposed to detect HIFU-induced lesions. However, these methods cannot provide the information of the degree of tissue damage. Experiments in vitro bovine muscle and liver validated the method of differential integrated backscatter imaging for the characterization of HIFU-induced lesions. And the AD, SAD, and SSD algorithms can be implemented in real-time during HIFU therapy to visualize the lesions.

Evaluation of two relative-abundance indices to monitor brushtail possums in New Zealand

Population monitoring of brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) is an essential part of their management in New Zealand, with a trap-catch removal method being used most commonly. An alternative monitoring method (bait-interference), using bite marks on wax blocks, has been promoted as a more cost-effective alternative to using traps. However, neither of these methods has been validated. We assessed the utility of these two methods regarding their accuracy (unbiasedness and precision) in detecting changes in possum abundance by comparing the estimates of relative change in possum density following control obtained from both methods with the kill rate among radio-collared possums in the same study areas. In each of seven control operations, 48–50 possums were collared with mortality-sensing radio-transmitters, and trap-catch and wax-block lines were assessed before and after control. The correlation between trap-catch and radio-transmitter kill estimates (R2 = 0.91) suggests that trap catch, as currently used to monitor relative possum abundance, appears to be sufficiently accurate to manage these pests, with any bias being small. The kill estimates based on the wax-block monitoring were correlated less strongly with the radiotransmitter estimates than the trap-catch estimates (R2 = 0.66), although still significant. Until the extent of the potential bias in the wax-block estimates is known, we recommend that traps continue to be used as the main method to monitor possum abundance.

Estimating the Number of Drug Injectors from Needle Exchange Data

Background. Information on the size of a drug injecting population is required for resource allocation and health service evaluation. The truncated Poisson (tP) estimator is a method of prevalence estimation which, in contrast to the capture-recapture method, can be used when only a single data source is available. Objective. We present a study on the size of a drug injecting population to illustrate how the tP estimator can be calculated and how some of its underlying assumptions can be checked. Results. Although 647 individuals attended the needle exchange in 1997, the total number of drug injectors was estimated to be 1041 within a 95% confidence interval of 960 ∼ 1137. Discussion. The truncated Poisson estimator can be an easy and quick method of providing a prevalence estimate of drug injecting and may produce valid estimates of relative changes in prevalence rates over time.