Estimated Recurrence Interval Research Articles

Seismic potential on the northwestern Main Recent Fault (Iran) revealed by InSAR

The Main Recent Fault (MRF) is an important boundary fault that accommodates the oblique convergence motion between the Arabian and Eurasian plates. Several large earthquakes including the 1909 Mb 7.4, 1958-1963 three events with magnitude larger than Mw 6.0, and the 2006 Mw 6.1 earthquake had partly ruptured the central and southeast segments of MRF. However, there is no large earthquake occurred in the northwest segment in the past hundred years. In this study, the interseismic surface deformation was firstly mapped from the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images observed by the Sentinel-1 satellite. Then, the ununiformed fault slip rate, coupling ratio and locking depth are estimated based on the measured interseismic surface deformation. The results show that the interseismic fault slip rate slightly varies from ~3.7 mm/yr to ~6.1 mm/yr along the MRF. Furthermore, it is also found a gradual increasing extensional component with magnitude of 2-7 mm/yr from Morvarid to Sahneh segments of MRF. In addition, total 9 sub-segments could be divided based on the fault coupling distribution and historical earthquakes in the interest zone. A seismogenic zone is identified from the historical earthquakes, which has a good space consistency with the transition between the significant shallow locking and deep free slip zones. According to the potential seismic magnitude and estimated recurrence interval, it is found that several segments are approaching the end of their interseismic recurrence interval. Meanwhile, one segment (SF-8) may be in the early stage of a new recurrence period due to the recent several large earthquakes and a long recurrence interval.

Paleoseismic Earthquake Recurrence Interval Derivation for the 2022 Revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model

Abstract Recurrence intervals of ground-surface rupturing earthquakes are one of numerous datasets used to constrain the rates of fault ruptures in the 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022). Paleoearthquake timing and single-event displacement (SED) data in the New Zealand Paleoseismic Site Database version 1.0 alongside geologic and geodetic slip rates from the New Zealand Community Fault Model version 1.0 and NZ NSHM 2022 Geodetic Deformation Model were used to estimate recurrence intervals on faults across New Zealand for inclusion in the NZ NSHM 2022. Past earthquake timings were fit with lognormal, exponential, and Brownian Passage Time recurrence models to derive probability density functions (PDFs) of mean recurrence interval (MRI) in a Bayesian framework. At some sites, SED and slip-rate (SR) data were used to estimate PDFs of MRI; and at sites where timings, slip rate, and displacement data are available, the timings-based and slip-based PDFs were combined to develop tighter constraints on MRI. Using these approaches, we produce a database of maximum-likelihood MRIs and their uncertainties for 80 sites across New Zealand. The resulting recurrence interval dataset is publicly available and is the largest such dataset in New Zealand to date. It provides a valuable resource for future seismic hazard modeling and highlights areas that would benefit from future study.

Inferring rockfall frequency-magnitude relationships and talus accumulation times from lichenometric study of talus deposits, Glenwood Canyon, CO, USA

Rockfall is a frequent hazard in mountainous areas of the world. Rockfall hazard assessment and mitigation design typically require design volumes of blocks and design frequencies of events. However, constraining the frequency of rockfall is challenging due to limited data, limited timespans of data collection, and difficulty of estimating dates for past rockfalls. This paper presents a study of rockfall frequency from natural rock slopes in Glenwood Canyon, Colorado using lichenometry measurements of Lecanora novomexicana and Lecidea atrobrunnea lichens from 1070 boulders from six talus deposits. The lichen ages are used to develop frequency-magnitude relationships for rockfall, to calculate recurrence intervals for selected volumes, and to estimate the time required to develop the observed talus deposits. Power laws fit to frequency-magnitude distributions of lichen ages yield b parameters ranging from −0.61 to −1.04. Based on these distributions, recurrence intervals for selected rockfall magnitudes include: sub-annual to annual for 0.1 m3, a few years to decades for 1 m3, and several decades for 10 m3 rockfalls. These estimated recurrence intervals appear to agree with observed signs of rockfall activity from the studied slopes and with rockfall data from the limited historical record for Glenwood Canyon. Mapped lichen ages indicate no preferential spatial distribution of rockfalls, implying the majority of rockfall events are small relative to the scale of the deposit. A comparison of the estimated volumetric rockfall accumulation rates with estimated total talus deposit volumes suggests that each of the studied deposits has a depositional history extending back longer than the beginning of the Holocene.

Paleotsunami history of Hachinohe, northern Japan: a multiproxy analysis and numerical modeling approach

Paleotsunami studies along the Pacific coast of Tohoku, northern Japan, have been considerably developed recently, particularly after the massive impact of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. Nevertheless, in the southernmost Shimokita Peninsula, studies pertaining to paleotsunami are underdeveloped, leading to a vague understanding of the tsunamigenic sources northward of the Tohoku region, along with incomplete hazard evaluation. Paleotsunami deposits in Shimokita can be related not only to the Japan Trench along the Sanriku coast but also to the Kuril trench along the Pacific coast of Hokkaido. In this study, we unveiled the paleotsunami history of Hachinohe in northern Tohoku. Using a combination of sedimentological, geochemical, paleontological, and mineralogical proxies, we characterized seven sand layers that dated from ca. 2700 to ca. 5500 yr BP based on radiocarbon (14C) ages as event deposits of marine origin. Sedimentological and paleontological evidence coupled with ground-penetrating radar imagery revealed a marsh environment comprising successive extinct ponds, controlling the depositional environment. Numerical modeling ruled out the possibility of storms as genetic sources, leading to the conclusion that the presence of event deposits with marine sediments in the study area would be associated with tsunami inundation episodes. Based on 14C dating, the mean frequency of recurrence of tsunamis is estimated as 384 years (320–450 yr, 95% confidence interval) and a coefficient of variation of 0.78 (0.68–0.99, 95% confidence interval). The previously recorded limited paleotsunami evidence and absence of an estimated recurrence interval in the Shimokita Peninsula reaffirm the importance of Hachinohe as a tsunami record site for the activity of both trenches.

An Intuitive Metric to Quantify and Communicate Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard

AbstractRecent tropical cyclones (TCs) have highlighted the hazards that TC rainfall poses to human life and property. These hazards are not adequately conveyed by the commonly used Saffir–Simpson scale. Additionally, while recurrence intervals (or, their inverse, annual exceedance probabilities) are sometimes used in the popular media to convey the magnitude and likelihood of extreme rainfall and floods, these concepts are often misunderstood by the public and have important statistical limitations. We introduce an alternative metric—the extreme rain multiplier (ERM), which expresses TC rainfall as a multiple of the climatologically derived 2-yr rainfall value. ERM allows individuals to connect (“anchor,” in cognitive psychology terms) the magnitude of a TC rainfall event to the magnitude of rain events that are more typically experienced in their area. A retrospective analysis of ERM values for TCs from 1948 to 2017 demonstrates the utility of the metric as a hazard quantification and communication tool. Hurricane Harvey (2017) had the highest ERM value during this period, underlining the storm’s extreme nature. ERM correctly identifies damaging historical TC rainfall events that would have been classified as “weak” using wind-based metrics. The analysis also reveals that the distribution of ERM maxima is similar throughout the eastern and southern United States, allowing for both the accurate identification of locally extreme rainfall events and the development of regional-scale (rather than local-scale) recurrence interval estimates for extreme TC rainfall. Last, an analysis of precipitation forecast data for Hurricane Florence (2018) demonstrates ERM’s ability to characterize Florence’s extreme rainfall hazard in the days preceding landfall.

Submarine canyons, slope failures and mass transport processes in southern Cascadia

Abstract Marine turbidite records have been used to infer palaeoseismicity and estimate recurrence intervals for large (>M w 7) earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Conventional models propose that upper slope failures are funneled into submarine canyons and develop into turbidity flows that are routed down-canyon to deep-water channel and fan systems. However, the sources and pathways of these turbidity flows are poorly constrained, leading to uncertainties in the connections between ground shaking, slope failure and deep-water turbidites. We examine the spatial distribution of submarine landslides along the southern Cascadia margin to identify source regions for slope failures that may have developed into turbidity flows. Using multibeam bathymetry, sparker multichannel seismic and chirp sub-bottom data, we observe relatively few canyon head slope failures and limited evidence of large landslides on the upper and middle slope. Most of the submarine canyons are draped with sediment infill in the upper reaches and do not appear to be active sediment conduits during the recent sea-level highstand. In contrast, there is evidence of extensive mass wasting of the lower slope and non-channelized downslope flows. Contrary to previous studies, we propose that failures along the lower slope are the primary sources for deep-sea seismoturbidites in southern Cascadia.

The effect of sub-seismic fault slip processes on the isotopic signature of clay minerals – Implications for K-Ar dating of fault zones

Clay minerals are abundant in fault gouges and isotope dating of the radiogenic noble gases that they contain may be used to constrain timing of fault initiation, reactivation and to estimate recurrence intervals of earthquakes. The potential influence of fault slip and ambient temperature on the isotope signature of authigenic clay minerals, however, remains unknown. This study reports measurements of the K-Ar isotope signature of samples that have been sheared experimentally at sub-seismic slip rates within a range of ambient temperatures, as well as of samples undergoing standardised clay heating degas experiments in the investigation and comparison of the influence of sub-seismic frictional slip and external heating on clay gouge. The age data confirm that the sub-seismic frictional slip of clay gouge affects the clay microstructures and releases radiogenic 40Ar. The experimental data indicate that radiogenic 40Ar release due to external heating can be disregarded until ~350 °C, which is supported by Ar diffusion modelling. Frictional slip at sub-seismic slip rates and at room temperature results in a significant radiogenic 40Ar loss of ~56% and the remaining clay will inherit ~44% of radiogenic 40Ar. Sub-seismic frictional slip experiments at imposed elevated temperatures from 150 to 450 °C increase the amount of radiogenic 40Ar loss and decrease the amount of inherited radiogenic 40Ar. At a relatively high temperature of 450 °C, about 16% of radiogenic 40Ar will be present in the remaining sample portion, reinforcing the importance of rigorous clay grain size separation processes required prior to fault gouge dating.

Surface rupture and slip distribution along the Lenglongling fault in the NE Tibetan Plateau: Implications for faulting behavior

The Lenglongling Fault (LLLF) is located in the western section of the “Tianzhu seismic gap” along the Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone in the NE Tibetan Plateau, between the 1920 M8.5 Haiyuan and the 1927 M8.0 Gulang earthquakes. There is little information about the paleoseismic history of the LLLF and understanding the faulting history of the LLLF is important for determining the seismic hazards of both the fault and the seismic gap. Using UAV-based photogrammetry, high-resolution satellite imagery, and field investigations, we mapped the surface trace of the fault in detail and measured 192 left-lateral offsets of geomorphic markers along the fault trace. A binned cumulative offset probability density (COPD) distribution was calculated to analyze single-event and multi-event cumulative offsets. As a result, we find that the LLLF has fresh scarps along the entire ∼120 km length, indicating that the most recent event might have ruptured the full-segment of the fault. The coseismic offset of the most recent event changes along the fault trace and has an asymmetrical bell-shaped distribution. The maximum offset was ∼7 m, located in the middle-eastern section of the fault, and the offset decreases progressively towards both ends. The minimum offset, located at the western end, was ∼3.0 m, and the average coseismic offset was ∼4.8 m. The cumulative offsets of the four most recent paleoearthquakes are multiples of the coseismic offset of the most recent event, and show similar slip distributions, indicating that the fault ruptures with a characteristic slip. The fault slip distribution, estimated recurrence interval, and estimated moment magnitude imply that the LLLF releases accumulated strain energy mainly by repeatedly producing Mw 7.5–7.8 earthquakes every 1000 ± 200 years. We also show that the binned COPD technique performs well to separate single-event and multi-event cumulative offsets.

Holocene paleoseismic history of the Yunodake fault ruptured by the 2011 Fukushima-ken Hamadori earthquake, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan

The 11 March 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, which occurred along the Japan Trench, induced an unusual shallow normal-faulting earthquake: the 11 April 2011 Fukushima-ken Hamadori earthquake (Mw 6.6) near the Pacific coast in southeastern Fukushima Prefecture. Remarkable surface ruptures appeared along the NW-trending Yunodake fault, the NNW-trending Itozawa fault (west) (also known as the Shionohira fault). Although the Yunodake fault is mapped with a normal down-to-the-SW sense of slip, its paleoseismic history is not clear. A trenching survey on the northwestern part of the Yunodake fault is reported here that reveals its Holocene paleoearthquake history. The trench wall beneath the 2011 ruptures exposed fissures, open cracks, stratigraphic offsets, and a succession of cumulatively inclined Holocene sediment layers. Detailed observations of the trench walls and radiocarbon dating reveal that the two latest previous surface-rupturing earthquakes occurred between 800 and 6200 years ago and between 5900 and 6700 years ago respectively. The estimated recurrence interval of the Yunodake fault is 800 to 5900 years at this location.

Deep deformation of the Longmenshan fault zone related to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

This paper reviews studies of the past ten year related to the crustal deformation of the Longmenshan fault zone (LMSFZ) which was struck by the M 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008. The tectonics of the LMSFZ located at the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau is complex, with complicated fault geometry and a heterogeneous velocity structure. The Wenchuan earthquake rupture extended for about 300 km along the middle and northern segments of the LMSFZ, with a very complicated rupture process involving multiple sub-events. The Wenchuan slip distribution is characterized by two major slip patches near Hongkou/Yingxiu and Beichuan with peak slip of 5.0–15.5 m and extended from near the surface to below 20 km depth. Prior to the Wenchuan earthquake, the LMSFZ had been seismically quiet for several centuries and there were no hints that suggested that such an M 8.0 earthquake might strike the area. The long-term geological investigations and short-term geodetic measurements before the Wenchuan earthquake generally agree that the horizontal slip rate along the LMSFZ is no more than 3 mm per year. The low slip rate observed at the surface around the LMSFZ may not reveal the real state of accumulated strain at depth where the devastating Wenchuan earthquake nucleated. Rates of aseismic slip at depth derived from seismological investigation of repeating microearthquakes were found to be approximately twice as large as the interseismic rates inferred from surface GPS and geological data. Most of the clusters of repeating microearthquakes are located at the edge of locked areas where large coseismic slips were observed during the Wenchuan earthquake, suggesting a close relationship between microearthquakes and impending large earthquakes. A two-dimensional viscoelastic finite-element model produces a depth-related slip rate pattern around the LMSFZ that is consistent with that revealed by the seismological observation of repeating earthquakes. The measured in situ deep slip rates increase with depth and vary from 3.5 to 9.6 mm/a over a depth range of 4–18 km.The seismological observations of deep slip rates and microseismicity in the three decades before the Wenchuan earthquake reveal that the LMSFZ is indeed not as “quiet” as traditionally assumed in comparison with its neighboring fault systems. Considering the deep slip rates (3.5−9.6 mm/a) from the repeating microearthquakes and coseismic peak offsets of 5.0–15.5 m, the recurrence interval of Wenchuan-like events is estimated to be about 500−4500 years. The estimated recurrence interval based on the deep slip rates is much smaller than those estimates using the same coseismic displacements divided by GPS-derived or geological slip rates. Slip rate increases with depth were also recognized in the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault zone and in the northeastern Japan subduction zone before the ruptures of the 2004 M w6.0 Parkfield earthquake and the 2011 M w9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake, respectively. Accelerated slip is thought to have preceded a number of recent large subduction zone earthquakes and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, and repeating earthquakes may document short-term precursory slip at depth. Alternatively, the rapid slip rates indicated by the repeating microearthquakes may represent transiently accelerated slip preceding the Wenchuan mainshock. We suggest that slip rates at seismogenic depths are of critical importance in seismic hazard analysis. Repeating earthquakes can be regarded as “deep creepmeters” that measure the in - situ deep slip rate on otherwise aseismically slipping faults. For less well defined and widespread faults within the continents, it is essential to reveal a fault’s or region’s seismic history over different time scale. Combining a better understanding of earthquake diversity with modern technology is the key to effective and comprehensive hazard mitigation practices. The potential earthquake hazard of locked faults with unusually high inferred deep slow slip rates should be paid more attention. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is the best-studied continental earthquake to date with a large number of scientific publications enabled by the vast collected data sets. The research community efforts have provided first-order information about this unexpected event regarding its coseismic slip distribution and fault geometry. However, there are many remaining questions about the basic nature of this earthquake to be further constrained with multiple data sets, including the relationship of its rupture with prior coupling and interseismic creep, the varying dynamical rupture processes with depth, the frequency dependence of seismic radiation across the fault zone, and the role of multiple postseismic deformation processes.

Surface Rupture of Multiple Crustal Faults in the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura, New Zealand, Earthquake

Multiple (>20 >20 ) crustal faults ruptured to the ground surface and seafloor in the 14 November 2016 M w Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, and many have been documented in detail, providing an opportunity to understand the factors controlling multifault ruptures, including the role of the subduction interface. We present a summary of the surface ruptures, as well as previous knowledge including paleoseismic data, and use these data and a 3D geological model to calculate cumulative geological moment magnitudes (M G w MwG ) and seismic moments for comparison with those from geophysical datasets. The earthquake ruptured faults with a wide range of orientations, sense of movement, slip rates, and recurrence intervals, and crossed a tectonic domain boundary, the Hope fault. The maximum net surface displacement was ∼12 m ∼12 m on the Kekerengu and the Papatea faults, and average displacements for the major faults were 0.7–1.5 m south of the Hope fault, and 5.5–6.4 m to the north. M G w MwG using two different methods are M G w MwG 7.7 +0.3 −0.2 7.7−0.2+0.3 and the seismic moment is 33%–67% of geophysical datasets. However, these are minimum values and a best estimate M G w MwG incorporating probable larger slip at depth, a 20 km seismogenic depth, and likely listric geometry is M G w MwG 7.8±0.2 7.8±0.2 , suggests ≤32% ≤32% of the moment may be attributed to slip on the subduction interface and/or a midcrustal detachment. Likely factors contributing to multifault rupture in the Kaikōura earthquake include (1) the presence of the subduction interface, (2) physical linkages between faults, (3) rupture of geologically immature faults in the south, and (4) inherited geological structure. The estimated recurrence interval for the Kaikōura earthquake is ≥5,000–10,000 yrs ≥5,000–10,000 yrs , and so it is a relatively rare event. Nevertheless, these findings support the need for continued advances in seismic hazard modeling to ensure that they incorporate multifault ruptures that cross tectonic domain boundaries.

Recurrence interval of the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake inferred from geodynamic modelling stress buildup and release

The destructive 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake ruptured the Longmen Shan (LMS) fault zone and devastated cities in Sichuan province, China. Estimates of the recurrence interval of the large earthquake is important to understand the feature of seismic activity and to analyze the seismic hazard in the fault area. In this research we introduce the method of geodynamic modelling to estimate the recurrence interval of the Mw7.9 earthquake based on the basic physics of earthquakes-stress buildup and release on fault. The inter-seismic stress accumulation prior to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is extracted from our previous study, which developed 3D finite element visco-elastic lithospheric model of the LMS fault zone. The co-seismic stress release and the post-seismic stress relaxation of the earthquake are simulated through dislocation source models. The recurrence interval, which is the duration needed to accumulate the magnitude of the stress drop of the Mw7.9 earthquake, is estimated to be about 4200–6500 years. Sensitivities of the estimated recurrence interval relying on model dependent parameters, such as the viscosity and slip models, are discussed. This research provides a preferred method to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquake in fault zone.

Stratigraphic records of tsunamis along the Japan Sea, southwest Hokkaido, northern Japan

AbstractThe stratigraphy of tsunami deposits along the Japan Sea, southwest Hokkaido, northern Japan, reveals tsunami recurrences in this particular area. Sandy tsunami deposits are preserved in small valley plains, whereas gravelly deposits of possible tsunami origin are identified in surficial soils covering a Holocene marine terrace and a slope talus. At least five horizons of tsunami events can be defined in the Okushiri Island, the youngest of which immediately overlies the Ko‐d tephra layer (1640 AD) and was likely formed by the historical Oshima‐Ohshima tsunami in 1741 AD. The four older tsunami deposits, dated using accelerator mass spectrometry 14C, were formed at around the 12th century, 1.5–1.6, 2.4–2.6, and 2.8–3.1 ka, respectively. Tsunami sand beds of the 1741 AD and circa 12th century events are recognized in the Hiyama District of Hokkaido Island, but the older tsunami deposits are missing. The deposits of these two tsunamis are found together at the same sites and distributed in regions where wave heights of the 1993 tsunami (Hokkaido Nansei‐oki earthquake, Mw = 7.7) were less than 3 m. Thus, the 12th century tsunami waves were possibly generated near the south of Okushiri Island, whereas the 1993 tsunami was generated towards the north of the island. The estimated recurrence intervals of paleotsunamis, 200–1100 years with an average of 500 years, likely represents the recurrence interval of large earthquakes which would have occurred along several active faults offshore of southwest Hokkaido.

Channel response to extreme floods: Insights on controlling factors from six mountain rivers in northern Apennines, Italy

This work addresses the geomorphic response of mountain rivers to extreme floods, exploring the relationships between morphological changes and controlling factors. The research was conducted on six tributaries of the Magra River (northern Apennines, Italy) whose catchments were affected by an extreme flood (estimated recurrence interval>100years in most of the basins) on 25 October 2011. An integrated approach was deployed to study this flood, including (i) analysis of channel width changes by comparing aerial photographs taken before and after the flood, (ii) estimate of peak discharges in ungauged streams, (iii) detailed mapping of landslides and analysis of their connectivity with the channel network.Channel widening occurred in 35 reaches out of 39. In reaches with channel slope<4% (here defined as nonsteep reaches), average and maximum ratios of post-flood and pre-flood channel width were 5.2 and 19.7 (i.e., channel widened from 4 to 82m), respectively. In steep reaches (slope≥4%), widening was slightly less intense (i.e., average width ratio=3.4, maximum width ratio=9.6). The relationships between the degree of channel widening and seven controlling factors were explored at subreach scale by using multiple regression models. In the steep subreaches characterized by higher confinement, the degree of channel widening (i.e., width ratio) showed relatively strong relationships with cross-sectional stream power, unit stream power (calculated based on pre-flood channel width), and lateral confinement, with coefficients of multiple determination (R2) ranging between 0.43 and 0.67. The models for the nonsteep subreaches provided a lower explanation of widening variability, with R2 ranging from 0.30 to 0.38; in these reaches a significant although weak relation was found between the degree of channel widening and the hillslope area supplying sediment to the channels.Results indicate that hydraulic variables alone are not sufficient to satisfactorily explain the channel response to extreme floods, and inclusion of other factors such as lateral confinement is needed to increase explanatory capability of regression models. Concerning hydraulic variables, this study showed that the degree of channel widening is more strongly related to unit stream power calculated based on pre-flood channel width than to cross-sectional stream power and to unit stream power calculated with post-flood channel width. This could suggest that most width changes occurred after the flood peak. Finally, in terms of hazard, it is crucial to document the type and magnitude of channel changes, to identify controlling factors, and most importantly, to develop tools enabling us to predict where major geomorphic changes occur during an extreme flood.

Structure, late Quaternary slip rate and earthquake potential of marine reverse faults along the North Westland deformation front, New Zealand

ABSTRACTThe North Westland deformation front runs offshore for 320 km between Cape Farewell and Hokitika at a distance of 3–30 km from the coast. From marine seismic reflection profiles integrated with published sediment core and coastal uplift data, we infer late Quaternary activity on six major reverse faults. The principal structures are the Cape Foulwind, Kahurangi and Kongahu faults and the newly named Farewell, Elizabeth and Razorback faults. They include Late Cretaceous and Paleogene rift faults that were reactivated as reverse faults during the late Cenozoic. Best estimates of late Quaternary (<120 ka) slip rates for different faults range from 0.05–0.75 mm a–1. Nine potential earthquake sources are identified, including four segments of the Cape Foulwind Fault. They are of length c. 20–120 km, are potentially capable of producing moderate- to large-magnitude earthquakes of Mw 6.7–7.8 and represent a seismic risk to coastal communities. Best estimates of recurrence intervals for individual fault sources range from about 7600 years to 30,400 years, with large uncertainties in slip rates of up to –0.4, +1.0 mm a–1 reflected by the wide range of recurrence intervals.

Temporal and spatial climatic controls on Holocene fire-related erosion and sedimentation, Jemez Mountains, New Mexico

In the Jemez Mountains, tree-ring data indicate that low-severity fires characterized the 400yr before Euro-American settlement, and that subsequent fire suppression promoted denser forests, recent severe fires, and erosion. Over longer timescales, climate change may alter fire regimes; thus, we used fire-related alluvial deposits to assess the timing of moderate- to high-severity fires, their geomorphic impact, and relation to climate over the last 4000yr. Fire-related sedimentation does not clearly follow millennial-scale climatic changes, but probability peaks commonly correspond with severe drought, e.g., within the interval 1700–1400calyr BP, and ca. 650 and ca. 410calyr BP. The latter episodes were preceded by prolonged wet intervals that could promote dense stands. Estimated recurrence intervals for fire-related sedimentation are 250–400yr. Climatic differences with aspect influenced Holocene post-fire response: fire-related deposits constitute 77% of fan sediments from north-facing basins but only 39% of deposits from drier southerly aspects. With sparser vegetation and exposed bedrock, south aspects can generate runoff and sediment when unburned, whereas soil-mantled north aspects produce minor sediment unless severely burned. Recent channel incision appears unprecedented over the last 2300yr, suggesting that fuel loading and extreme drought produced an anomalously severe burn in 2002.

Geomorphic response to catastrophic flooding in north-central Pennsylvania from Tropical Storm Lee (September 2011): Intersection of fluvial disequilibrium and the legacy of logging

More than 25 cm of rainfall from Tropical Storm Lee (TS Lee) over 2 days in September 2011 resulted in catastrophic flooding (U.S. Geological Survey estimated recurrence interval >100 yr) on several Susquehanna River tributaries emanating from the Appalachian Plateau in north-central Pennsylvania (USA). Helicopter photography and field work were used to prepare a detailed geographic information system database of geomorphic response to the flood along ∼250 km of Loyalsock, Muncy, Lycoming, and Fishing Creeks. Unlike the response of many streams to previously described Appalachian floods, fluvial response to the TS Lee flood was extensive in these gravel bed streams, characterized by (1) large-scale avulsions and chute development on the insides of meanders, (2) erosion of gravel from channel margins and transport downstream in large pulses, (3) headwater landslides and alluvial fan activation, (4) major floodplain erosion and deposition, and (5) breaching of anthropogenic berms and reconnection of the main channel to prehistoric floodplain anabranches. Geomorphic work, expressed both as bedload sediment transport and landform change (geomorphic effectiveness) was significant: as much as 55,000 m 3 /km of gravel was transported within a single watershed. Landform changes included erosion of chutes (to 500 m long), gravel bars (point bars and mid-channel bars), channel widening (in places >100%), and reoccupation of former multithread channels previously cut off from the mainstem by historic channel straightening, berming, and dredging. Streams in this region appear to be in a phase of disequilibrium largely in response to major shifts in sediment delivery from their watersheds caused by historic logging and a series of floods ∼100 yr ago. Widespread clearcutting (A.D. 1850–1920) contributed large volumes of sediment to these streams. Dendrogeomorphic data bracket a period of aggradation of these logging legacy sediments between the 1870s and 1930s, creating a significant low terrace inset into Pleistocene outwash and glacial sediments. Recent floods in 1972, 1996, 2004, and especially TS Lee in 2011 initiated an enhanced phase of disequilibrium as a geomorphic threshold was crossed, resulting in widespread erosion of logging legacy sediments deposited nearly 100 yr ago. The change in sediment load (increased coarse bedload) as a result of widespread bed and bank erosion caused a change in channel pattern from single thread to multithread. Pattern change was facilitated by aggradation of gravel bars above floodplain elevations which promoted avulsion and chute formation. Based on preflood and postflood geomorphic mapping, >6,700,000 m 3 of gravel were mobilized during the flood across 4 watersheds. Mobilization of logging legacy sediment is occurring as pulses of gravel move downstream episodically. This paper demonstrates the important influences of drainage basin morphometry (e.g., ruggedness number) and fluvial history (land use and geomorphic) in understanding current channel dynamics and basin response to heavy precipitation and flooding. The findings presented herein have significant implications for watershed management and planning. Streams in this region are likely to remain in a protracted phase of readjustment for many decades as complex response to historical land-use change continues. In this disequilibrium phase most significant rainfall events will likely trigger additional readjustment and channel change.

Earthquake interevent time distribution in Kachchh, Northwestern India

Statistical properties of earthquake interevent times have long been the topic of interest to seismologists and earthquake professionals, mainly for hazard-related concerns. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study on the temporal statistics of earthquake interoccurrence times of the seismically active Kachchh peninsula (western India) from thirteen probability distributions. Those distributions are exponential, gamma, lognormal, Weibull, Levy, Maxwell, Pareto, Rayleigh, inverse Gaussian (Brownian passage time), inverse Weibull (Frechet), exponentiated exponential, exponentiated Rayleigh (Burr type X), and exponentiated Weibull distributions. Statistical inferences of the scale and shape parameters of these distributions are discussed from the maximum likelihood estimations and the Fisher information matrices. The latter are used as a surrogate tool to appraise the parametric uncertainty in the estimation process. The results were found on the basis of two goodness-of-fit tests: the maximum likelihood criterion with its modification to Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) minimum distance criterion. These results reveal that (i) the exponential model provides the best fit, (ii) the gamma, lognormal, Weibull, inverse Gaussian, exponentiated exponential, exponentiated Rayleigh, and exponentiated Weibull models provide an intermediate fit, and (iii) the rest, namely Levy, Maxwell, Pareto, Rayleigh, and inverse Weibull, fit poorly to the earthquake catalog of Kachchh and its adjacent regions. This study also analyzes the present-day seismicity in terms of the estimated recurrence interval and conditional probability curves (hazard curves). The estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probability of a magnitude 5.0 or higher event reach 0.8–0.9 by 2027–2036 and 2034–2043, respectively. These values have significant implications in a variety of practical applications including earthquake insurance, seismic zonation, location identification of lifeline structures, and revision of building codes.

Turbidite paleoseismology along the active continental margin of Chile – Feasible or not?

Much progress has been made in estimating recurrence intervals of great and giant subduction earthquakes using terrestrial, lacustrine, and marine paleoseismic archives. Recent detailed records suggest these earthquakes may have variable recurrence periods and magnitudes forming supercycles. Understanding seismic supercycles requires long paleoseismic archives that record timing and magnitude of such events. Turbidite paleoseismic archives may potentially extend past earthquake records to the Pleistocene and can thus complement commonly shorter-term terrestrial archives. However, in order to unambiguously establish recurring seismicity as a trigger mechanism for turbidity currents, synchronous deposition of turbidites in widely spaced, isolated depocenters has to be ascertained. Furthermore, characteristics that predispose a seismically active continental margin to turbidite paleoseismology and the correct sample site selection have to be taken into account.Here we analyze 8 marine sediment cores along 950 km of the Chile margin to test for the feasibility of compiling detailed and continuous paleoseismic records based on turbidites. Our results suggest that the deposition of areally widespread, synchronous turbidites triggered by seismicity is largely controlled by sediment supply and, hence, the climatic and geomorphic conditions of the adjacent subaerial setting. The feasibility of compiling a turbidite paleoseismic record depends on the delicate balance between sufficient sediment supply providing material to fail frequently during seismic shaking and sufficiently low sedimentation rates to allow for coeval accumulation of planktonic foraminifera for high-resolution radiocarbon dating.We conclude that offshore northern central Chile (29–32.5°S) Holocene turbidite paleoseismology is not feasible, because sediment supply from the semi-arid mainland is low and almost no Holocene turbidity-current deposits are found in the cores. In contrast, in the humid region between 36 and 38°S frequent Holocene turbidite deposition may generally correspond to paleoseismic events. However, high terrigenous sedimentation rates prevent high-resolution radiocarbon dating. The climatic transition region between 32.5 and 36°S appears to be best suited for turbidite paleoseismology.

The Aguacaliente Fault, source of the Cartago 1910 destructive earthquake (Costa Rica)

AbstractOn 4 May 1910, the most destructive earthquake in the history of Costa Rica (Ms 6.4) destroyed the city of Cartago, a major city located in the Valle Central of Costa Rica. Using both palaeo‐seismological and morphotectonic analyses, we have found evidence that points to the Aguacaliente Fault (AF) as the source of this earthquake. This structure is a N100° E trending, strike‐slip fault situated to the south of Cartago and within a wide band of deformation. We excavated two trenches near Bermejo, south of Cartago. We found evidence of three surface ruptures within the last 1000 years on this fault. The age of the most recent rupture is consistent with the Cartago 1910 earthquake. The AF is a seismogenic source capable of producing large earthquakes (Mw 6.5–6.9) with an estimated recurrence interval of about 500 years.