Mass Balance Estimates Research Articles

Assessing Nitrate Leaching During Drought and Extreme Precipitation: Exploring Deep Vadose‐Zone Monitoring, Groundwater Observations, and Field Mass Balance

AbstractThe increasing concern over agricultural practices' impact on groundwater quality necessitates comprehensive studies to evaluate and compare monitoring strategies for nitrate leaching. This work addresses this imperative by examining three methodologies: deep vadose‐zone monitoring, shallow groundwater intensive monitoring, and field‐level mass balance. The primary objective of the study was to assess nitrate leaching from an intensively cropped processing tomato rotation field using three different methods. Additionally, this study focuses on contrasting conditions between the growing season (characterized by drought in some years) and the winter/rainy season (characterized by extreme precipitation in some years). Results indicate varying degrees of nitrate leaching across methods, with all approaches detecting leaching events during the growing season and off‐season precipitation. Despite uncertainties inherent in field‐level mass balance estimates, they align reasonably with intensive in‐situ monitoring results using the deep Vadose Monitoring System (VMS). Throughout two growing seasons and corresponding fall‐winter rainy periods, the VMS effectively tracked seasonal nitrogen leaching below the root zone, correlating with observed groundwater nitrate concentrations increases following extreme precipitation events. Nitrate leaching increased during heavy rainfall in the winter following dry summer periods observed across the deep vadose zone using two VMS systems. This underscores the importance of continuous monitoring and assessment in understanding nitrate dynamics and groundwater contamination risks. In conclusion, this study contributes to knowledge and ongoing research by providing insights into effective monitoring strategies for nitrate leaching into groundwater from intensive cropping systems.

Groundwater Recharge Response to Reduced Irrigation Pumping: Checkbook Irrigation and the Water Savings Payment Plan

Ongoing investments in irrigation technologies highlight the need to accurately estimate the longevity and magnitude of water savings at the watershed level to avoid the paradox of irrigation efficiency. This paradox arises when irrigation pumping exceeds crop water demand, leading to excess water that is not recovered by the watershed. Comprehensive water accounting from farm to watershed scales is challenging due to spatial variability and inadequate socio-hydrological data. We hypothesize that water savings are short term, as prior studies show rapid recharge responses to surface changes. Precise estimation of these time scales and water savings can aid water managers making decisions. In this study, we examined water savings at three 65-hectare sites in Nebraska with diverse soil textures, management practices, and groundwater depths. Surface geophysics effectively identified in-field variability in soil water content and water flux. A one-dimensional model showed an average 80% agreement with chloride mass balance estimates of deep drainage. Our findings indicate that groundwater response times are short and water savings are modest (1–3 years; 50–900 mm over 10 years) following a 120 mm/year reduction in pumping. However, sandy soils with shallow groundwater show minimal potential for water savings, suggesting limited effectiveness of irrigation efficiency programs in such regions.

Accelerated glacier mass loss in the mid-latitude Eurasia from 2019 to 2022 revealed by ICESat-2

The dynamics of glaciers serve as one of the most important indicators of climate change. Whilst current research has primarily concentrated on long-term interannual glacier mass balance and its response to climate change, glaciers may respond more rapidly to climate change, highlighting the urgent need for intra-annual mass balance estimations. Investigating seasonal or short-term variations in glacier mass balance not only enhances our understanding of the interactions between glaciers and the climate system but also provides crucial data for water resource management and ecological protection. The ICESat-2 and NASADEM datasets were used to estimate the inter- and intra-annual glacier mass balance changes in the mid-latitude Eurasia from 2019 to 2022. Additionally, the response of glacier mass balance to regional air temperature and precipitation values was analysed using ERA5-Land data and multiple regression analysis, respectively. From 2019 to 2022, glacier mass loss in mid-latitude Eurasia reached −45.02 ± 34.21 Gt per year, contributing to a global sea-level rise of 0.12 ± 0.09 mm per year. The glacier melt rate in the study area from 2019 to 2022 was 2.33 times higher than that from 2000 to 2019. With the exception of the Western Kunlun region, which experienced a weak accumulation rate of 0.04 ± 0.35 m w.e. per year, all other areas experienced ablation states. Seasonal mass balance responds differently to temperature and precipitation variations across seasons: higher temperatures in different seasons lead to more negative mass balances, while increased winter and spring precipitation can slow down glacier melt. Air temperature dominates the glacier mass balance changes in the study area. The intense heat in 2022 raised average glacier temperatures by 1.04 °C compared to 2019–2021, resulting in a more negative mass balance and an increased ice loss of −0.34 ± 1.01 m w.e. per year (−35.07 ± 103.22 Gt per year). This analysis indicates that glacier mass balance is highly sensitive to climate change, even on a seasonal scale. Moreover, the high precision and spatiotemporal resolution ICESat-2 data can facilitate the investigation of large-scale glacier mass balance on short time scales.

Deriving seasonal and annual surface mass balance for debris-covered glaciers from flow-corrected satellite stereo DEM time series

Abstract Glaciers in High-Mountain Asia are experiencing varying rates and patterns of mass loss due to a complex interplay between glacier surface processes, local conditions and climate forcing. Spatially distributed surface mass balance (SMB) estimates can provide valuable insight into these drivers, but observations are currently limited in both space and time. We used very-high-resolution optical stereo images acquired by commercial satellites to prepare time series of digital elevation models (DEMs), and derived contemporaneous surface velocity and elevation change products for six debris-covered glaciers in Nepal. We developed new methods to produce flow-corrected Lagrangian SMB maps to isolate local surface ablation signals with enough detail to study individual ice cliffs. Our results show reduced ablation under thick debris cover and enhanced ablation over ice cliffs. Ablating ice cliffs were responsible for $10\!-\!38\%$ of the total ablation over debris-covered areas, even though they covered $\leq \!11\%$ of the total area. Seasonal SMB products reveal the timing and patterns of summer accumulation and ablation, underscoring the importance of snow avalanches for low-elevation debris-covered glaciers in the region. Our approach can be applied to other glaciers with repeat high-resolution DEM coverage and extended for regional analyses of SMB on seasonal to interannual timescales.

Reconciled estimation of Antarctic ice sheet mass balance and contribution to global sea level change from 1996 to 2021

AbstractThe Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has been losing ice mass and contributing to global sea level rise (GSLR). Given its mass that is enough to cause ∼58 m of GSLR, accurate estimation of mass balance trend is critical for AIS mass loss monitoring and sea level rise forecasting. Here, we present an improved approach to reconciled solutions of mass balance in AIS and its regions from multiple contributing solutions using the input-out, altimetric, and gravimetric methods. In comparison to previous methods, such as IMBIE 2018, this approach utilizes an adaptive data aggregation window to handle the heterogeneity of the contributing solutions, including the number of solutions, temporal distributions, uncertainties, and estimation techniques. We improved the regression-based method by using a two-step procedure that establishes ensembled solutions within each method (input-output, altimetry, or gravimetry) and then estimates the method-independent reconciled solutions. For the first time, 16 contributing solutions from 8 Chinese institutions are used to estimate the reconciled mass balance of AIS and its regions from 1996 to 2021. Our results show that AIS has lost a total ice mass of ∼3213±253 Gt during the period, an equivalent of ∼8.9±0.7 mm of GSLR. There is a sustained mass loss acceleration since 2006, from 88.1±3.6 Gt yr−1 during 1996–2005 to 130.7±8.4 Gt yr−1 during 2006–2013 and further to 157.0±9.0 Gt yr−1 during 2014–2021. The mass loss signal in the West Antarctica and Antarctic Peninsula is dominant and clearly presented in the reconciled estimation and contributing solutions, regardless of estimation methods used and fluctuation of surface mass balance. Uncertainty and challenges remain in mass balance estimation in East Antarctica. This reconciled estimation approach can be extended and applied for improved mass balance estimation in the Greenland Ice Sheet and mountain glacier regions.

First Red List of Ecosystems assessment of a tropical glacier ecosystem to diagnose the pathways towards imminent collapse

Abstract Tropical glaciers are rapidly disappearing, particularly in isolated mountain peaks below 5,000 m elevation. These glaciers are fundamental substrates for unique cryogenic ecosystems in high tropical environments where the ice, melting water and rocky substrate sustain microbiological communities and other meso- and macro-biota. This study uses the Red List of Ecosystems guidelines to diagnose the collapse of the tropical glacier ecosystem of the Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela. We undertook the assessment with existing estimates of glacier ice extent, indirect historical estimates of ice mass balance and global mechanistic models of future ice mass balance. We complemented these with additional statistical analysis of trends and bioclimatic suitability modelling to calculate and predict rates of decline and relative severity of degradation in selected ecosystem indicators. The evidence suggests an extreme risk of collapse (Critically Endangered) because of a prolonged and acute reduction in ice extent and changes in climatic conditions that are leading to the complete loss of ice mass. The ice substrate has declined 90% in the last 20 years, and observed acceleration of the rate of decline suggests it will probably disappear within the next 5 years. Loss of ice substrate will trigger an immediate loss of supraglacial, englacial and subglacial biotic compartments and initiate a decades-long succession of forefield vegetation. However, ongoing inventories of native biota and monitoring of ecosystem transitions can provide valuable insights and lessons for other ecosystems facing similar risks. The Red List of Ecosystems assessment protocol provides a useful framework for comparative analysis of cryogenic ecosystems.

High-resolution elevation models of Larsen B glaciers extracted from 1960s imagery

Accelerated warming since the 1950s has caused dramatic change to ice shelves and outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. Long observational records of ice loss in Antarctica are rare but essential to accurately inform mass balance estimates of glaciers. Here, we use aerial images from 1968 to reveal glacier configurations in the Larsen B region. We use structure-from-motion photogrammetry to construct high-resolution (3.2 m at best) elevation models covering up to 91% of Jorum, Crane, Mapple, Melville and Flask Glaciers. The historical elevation models provide glacier geometries decades before the Larsen B Ice Shelf collapse in 2002, allowing the determination of pre-collapse and post-collapse elevation differences. Results confirm that these five tributary glaciers of the former Larsen B Ice Shelf were relatively stable between 1968 and 2001. However, the net surface elevation differences over grounded ice between 1968 and 2021 equate to 35.3 ± 1.2 Gt of ice loss related to dynamic changes after the ice shelf removal. Archived imagery is an underutilised resource in Antarctica and was crucial here to observe glacier geometry in high-resolution decades before significant changes to ice dynamics.

Isotopic evaluation of the National Water Model reveals missing agricultural irrigation contributions to streamflow across the western United States.

The National Water Model (NWM) provides critical analyses and projections of streamflow that support water management decisions. However, the NWM performs poorly in lower-elevation rivers of the western United States (US). The accuracy of the NWM depends on the fidelity of the model inputs and the representation and calibration of model processes and water sources. To evaluate the NWM performance in the western US, we compared observations of river water isotope ratios ( and expressed in notation) to NWM-flux-estimated (model) river reach isotope ratios. The modeled estimates were calculated from long-term (2000-2019) mean summer (June, July, and August) NWM hydrologic fluxes and gridded isotope ratios using a mass balance approach. The observational dataset comprised 4503 in-stream water isotope observations in 877 reaches across 5 basins. A simple regression between observed and modeled isotope ratios explained 57.9 % ( ) and 67.1 % ( ) of variance, although observations were 0.5 ‰ ( ) and 4.8 ‰ ( ) higher, on average, than mass balance estimates. The unexplained variance suggest that the NWM does not include all relevant water fluxes to rivers. To infer possible missing water fluxes, we evaluated patterns in observation-model differences using ( ) and ( ). We detected evidence of evaporation in observations but not model estimates (negative and positive ) at lower-elevation, higher-stream-order, arid sites. The catchment actual-evaporation-to-precipitation ratio, the fraction of streamflow estimated to be derived from agricultural irrigation, and whether a site was reservoir-affected were all significant predictors of in a linear mixed-effects model, with up to 15.2 % of variance explained by fixed effects. This finding is supported by seasonal patterns, groundwater levels, and isotope ratios, and it suggests the importance of including irrigation return flows to rivers, especially in lower-elevation, higher-stream-order, arid rivers of the western US.

A 2012–2021 high‐resolution glacier mass balance estimate for Icelandic ice caps based on ArcticDEM and ICESat‐2

AbstractIce caps are important water resources for Iceland and are threatened by climate change. Despite their importance and vulnerability, the geodetic glacier mass balance estimate for the recent decade lacks a high‐resolution result. To address this gap, we first co‐registered the 2012–2021 ArcticDEM (v4) strips with ICESat‐2 points acquired over off‐ice areas and evaluated the accuracy of the co‐registered DEMs. We then applied a per‐pixel weighted liner regression to the multi‐temporal ArcticDEM strips and generated a high‐resolution (2 m) glacier surface elevation change rate for six major Icelandic ice caps. Based on these estimates we calculated the geodetic mass balance. Additionally, we estimated the seasonal relative surface elevation changes using ICESat‐2 ATL06 data for the 2019 to 2021 period. The results showed the co‐registered ArcticDEM strips exhibit good accuracy, with a standard deviation of 1.15 m across the Icelandic ice cap regions. Between 2012 and 2021, Icelandic ice caps experienced a state of mass loss, with a surface elevation change rate of −0.57 ± 0.21 m/a, corresponding to a mass loss of −0.51 ± 0.02 m w.e/a. Spatial variability in glacier surface elevation changes among different Icelandic ice caps ranges −0.19 m/a to −0.75 m/a. The Langjökull ice cap exhibited the most severe glacier mass loss at −0.68 ± 0.006 m w.e/a. Furthermore, our observations indicate a change in seasonal trends occurred across all six ice caps from 2019 to 2021. Specifically, the glacier surface thickening decreased during the accumulation period, while the thinning rate increased during the ablation period. These findings highlight that ArcticDEM v4 strips provide new insights into the mass balance of Icelandic glaciers and will aid in making future water management decisions. Moreover, the high‐resolution surface elevation topography and change rates provided in this study may contribute to an improved understanding of the influence of glacier dynamics on glacier change.

Estimation and Analysis of Glacier Mass Balance in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau Using TanDEM-X Bi-Static InSAR during 2000–2014

In recent decades, glaciers in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) have been rapidly melting and showing a large scale of glacier mass loss. Due to the lack of large-scale, high-resolution, and high-precision observations, knowledge on the spatial distribution of the glacier mass balance and the response to climate change is limited in this region. We propose a TanDEM-X bi-static InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) algorithm with a non-local mean filter method and difference strategy, to improve the precision of glacier surface elevation change detection. Moreover, we improved the glacier mass balance estimation algorithm with a correction method for multi-source system errors and an uncertainty evaluation method based on error propagation theory to reduce the uncertainty of estimations. We used 13 pairs of TanDEM-X bi-static InSAR images to obtain the glacier mass balance data for the entire SETP. The total area of glaciers monitored was 5821 km2 and the total number of glaciers monitored was 2321; the glacier surface elevation change rate was −0.505 ± 0.005 m/yr, and the glacier mass balance estimation was −454.5 ± 13.1 mm w.eq. during 2000–2014. Additionally, we analyzed the spatial distribution of the glacier mass balance within the SETP using the sub-watershed analysis method. The results showed that the mass loss rate had a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest. Furthermore, the temperature change and the glacier mass loss rate showed a positive correlation from the southeast to the northwest in this region. This study greatly advances our understanding of the regularities of glacier dynamics in this region, and can provide scientific support for major national goals such as the rational utilization of surrounding water resources and construction of important transportation projects.

Globally consistent estimates of high-resolution Antarctic ice mass balance and spatially resolved glacial isostatic adjustment

Abstract. A detailed understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) responds to a warming climate is needed because it will most likely increase the rate of global mean sea level rise. Time-variable satellite gravimetry, realized by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) missions, is directly sensitive to AIS mass changes. However, gravimetric mass balances are subject to two major limitations. First, the usual correction of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effect by modelling results is a dominant source of uncertainty. Second, satellite gravimetry allows for a resolution of a few hundred kilometres only, which is insufficient to thoroughly explore causes of AIS imbalance. We have overcome both limitations by the first global inversion of data from GRACE and GRACE-FO, satellite altimetry (CryoSat-2), regional climate modelling (RACMO2), and firn densification modelling (IMAU-FDM). The inversion spatially resolves GIA in Antarctica independently from GIA modelling jointly with changes of ice mass and firn air content at 50 km resolution. We find an AIS mass balance of −144 ± 27 Gt a−1 from January 2011 to December 2020. This estimate is the same, within uncertainties, as the statistical analysis of 23 different mass balances evaluated in the Ice sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE; Otosaka et al., 2023b). The co-estimated GIA corresponds to an integrated mass effect of 86 ± 21 Gt a−1 over Antarctica, and it fits better with global navigation satellite system (GNSS) results than other GIA predictions. From propagating covariances to integrals, we find a correlation coefficient of −0.97 between the AIS mass balance and the GIA estimate. Sensitivity tests with alternative input data sets lead to results within assessed uncertainties.

Quantifying the impact of X-band InSAR penetration bias on elevation change and mass balance estimation

Quantifying the impact of X-band InSAR penetration bias on elevation change and mass balance estimation

Aircraft-based mass balance estimate of methane emissions from offshore gas facilities in the southern North Sea

Abstract. Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have more than doubled since the beginning of the industrial age, making CH4 the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide (CO2). The oil and gas sector represents one of the major anthropogenic CH4 emitters as it is estimated to account for 22 % of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions. An airborne field campaign was conducted in April–May 2019 to study CH4 emissions from offshore gas facilities in the southern North Sea with the aim of deriving emission estimates using a top-down (measurement-led) approach. We present CH4 fluxes for six UK and five Dutch offshore platforms or platform complexes using the well-established mass balance flux method. We identify specific gas production emissions and emission processes (venting and fugitive or flaring and combustion) using observations of co-emitted ethane (C2H6) and CO2. We compare our top-down estimated fluxes with a ship-based top-down study in the Dutch sector and with bottom-up estimates from a globally gridded annual inventory, UK national annual point-source inventories, and operator-based reporting for individual Dutch facilities. In this study, we find that all the inventories, except for the operator-based facility-level reporting, underestimate measured emissions, with the largest discrepancy observed with the globally gridded inventory. Individual facility reporting, as available for Dutch sites for the specific survey date, shows better agreement with our measurement-based estimates. For all the sampled Dutch installations together, we find that our estimated flux of (122.9 ± 36.8) kg h−1 deviates by a factor of 0.64 (0.33–12) from reported values (192.8 kg h−1). Comparisons with aircraft observations in two other offshore regions (the Norwegian Sea and the Gulf of Mexico) show that measured, absolute facility-level emission rates agree with the general distribution found in other offshore basins despite different production types (oil, gas) and gas production rates, which vary by 2 orders of magnitude. Therefore, mitigation is warranted equally across geographies.

Probabilistic methods for flotation circuit mass balance estimation

Flotation control and supervision allow flotation circuits to maintain target concentrate grades and plant recoveries. The decision-making required for effective supervision of flotation control systems (e.g., selection of targets, setpoints, and setpoint limits) is enhanced by up-to-date information on total and component mass flows throughout the circuit. Limited instrumentation in flotation circuits typically yields a partial, noisy, and infrequently updated view of flotation conditions. Data reconciliation approaches have traditionally been used in conjunction with conservation balances to provide more consistent estimates of mass flows, although unmeasured and unobservable variables are either not fully characterized or at all. In this work, a probabilistic approach to mass balance estimation is presented, which can generalize different use cases (full redundancy, full observability, and partial observability with additional process assumptions) – using maximum a posteriori and marginal density estimation methods. This probabilistic approach is demonstrated on two case studies (a simple illustration and the Brunswick Mining flotation circuit).

Differential Impact of the Biodegradation Sunflower Oil, Particulate Substrate, Caused by the Presence of Saccharose, Soluble Substrate, on Activated Sludge Treatment

This research studies the biodegradation of sunflower-type vegetative oil in two proposed activated sludge systems, the first one to biologically treat an influent containing only vegetative oil and the second one to treat a mixture of vegetable oil plus saccharose. The purpose of these analyses is to evaluate the differential impact caused by the soluble substrate saccharose on the removal of vegetative oil. Vegetative oil biodegradation in both systems was studied and quantified via integral mass balance, and relevant operating parameters were monitored. This experimentation based on the mass balance estimation of biodegraded vegetative oil serves as a reference to understand the effect of soluble substrates present in mixed wastewater on oil biodegradation. Information was generated on the performance of the two activated sludge treatment systems. Both influents were pre-stirred before they entered the bench-scale activated sludge plants. The working range for sunflower oil concentration was 120 to 520 mg/L for the influent with sunflower oil and 180 to 750 mg/L for the influent with sunflower oil and saccharose. Biodegradation was in the order of 56 to 72% and 47 to 67%, respectively. The removal of sunflower oil in biodegradation and flotation was in the order of 90% in both scenarios.

Combined GNSS reflectometry–refractometry for automated and continuous in situ surface mass balance estimation on an Antarctic ice shelf

Abstract. Reliable in situ surface mass balance (SMB) estimates in polar regions are scarce due to limited spatial and temporal data availability. This study aims at deriving automated and continuous specific SMB time series for fast-moving parts of ice sheets and shelves (flow velocity > 10 m a−1) by developing a combined global navigation satellite system (GNSS) reflectometry and refractometry (GNSS-RR) method. In situ snow density, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow deposition or erosion are estimated simultaneously as an average over an area of several square meters and independently on weather conditions. The combined GNSS-RR method is validated and investigated regarding its applicability to a moving, high-latitude ice shelf. A combined GNSS-RR system was therefore installed in November 2021 on the Ekström ice shelf (flow velocity ≈ 150 m a−1) in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. The reflected and refracted GNSS observations from the site are post-processed to obtain snow accumulation (deposition and erosion), SWE, and snow density estimates with a 15 min temporal resolution. The results of the first 16 months of data show a high level of agreement with manual and automated reference observations from the same site. Snow accumulation, SWE, and density are derived with uncertainties of around 9 cm, 40 kg m−2 a−1, and 72 kg m−3, respectively. This pilot study forms the basis for extending observational networks with GNSS-RR capabilities, particularly in polar regions. Regional climate models, local snow modeling, and extensive remote sensing data products will profit from calibration and validation based on such in situ time series, especially if many such sensors will be deployed over larger regional scales.

Monitoring the annual geodetic mass balance of Bordu and Sary-Tor glaciers using UAV data

Abstract The geodetic mass balance of a glacier corresponds to glacier-wide volume changes, converted to mass changes using density assumptions. It is typically calculated by differencing multi-temporal digital elevation models. In this study, we show how the annual geodetic mass balance of a glacier can be derived from uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) data. The presented workflow is applied to two small- to medium-sized glaciers in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan (Central Asia): Bordu glacier and Sary-Tor glacier. The obtained geodetic mass balance is compared with the glaciological mass balance derived from a network of ablation stakes and snow pits. A previously calibrated mass-balance model is used to correct for the difference in acquisition dates. The results show that the determined geodetic mass balance matches closely with the glaciological mass balance. Besides, for both glaciers the geodetic mass balance does not seem to be particularly sensitive to the assumptions regarding volume-to-mass conversion. Therefore, our results demonstrate that UAVs can serve as a valuable instrument to quantify the annual geodetic mass balance and to validate the glaciological mass balance. The conventional glaciological mass-balance estimation often relies on interpolation and extrapolation methods, whereas UAVs offer the potential for direct data acquisition over the entire glacier surface.

Influence of climate and non-climatic attributes on declining glacier mass budget and surging in Alaknanda Basin and its surroundings

Globally glaciers are rapidly shrinking, endangering the sustainability of melt water and altering the regional hydrology. Understanding long-term glacier response to climate change and the influence of non-climatic attributes like morpho-topographic factors on ice loss is of high relevance. Here we estimate the multi-temporal mass balance of 445 glaciers in the upper Alaknanda basin and neighboring transboundary glaciers using optical stereo imageries from 1973 to 2021. Our measurements indicate a mean annual area change rate of −1.14 ± 0.07 km2 a−1 and a geodetic glacier mass balance of −0.34 ± 0.08 m w.e. a−1 from 1973 to 2020, leading to an overall mass loss of 12.9 ± 1.7 Gt, that accounts for up to 0.036 ± 0.006 mm of sea level rise. Before 2000 (1973–2000), the mean regional glacier mass loss rate was −0.30 ± 0.07 m w.e. a−1, which increased to −0.43 ± 0.06 m w.e. a−1 during 2000–2020. ERA5 Land reanalysis data showed a summer and annual temperature rise of ∼0.6 °C and ∼ 0.5 °C respectively in recent time period (2015–2020) and consequent strong mass loss (−0.68 ± 0.09 m w.e. a−1). In addition to climatic influence, glacier morphometry, topographic features and uneven debris cover distribution further impacted the regional and glacier specific mass balance. Our multi-temporal observation from space also emphasized that though the glaciers in this region experienced an increasing mass loss but a strong heterogeneous glacier specific response, like surging and dynamic separation of glacier, are also evident that was not captured by the available long-term global elevation change grids. Among all the climatic and non-climatic attributes, we identified summer temperature having most significant influence over glacier mass budget in this region, with a mass balance sensitivity of −0.6 m w. e. a−1 °C−1. Hence, knowing the mean summer temperature will help to predict the mass balance for any intermediate year for this region. If such climatic trend continues, smaller glaciers are likely to disapear in coming decades. Similar studies in other parts of the world and on specific glaciers can reveal links with climate factors, reconstruct mass balance, and enhance comprehension of glacier response to climate change. Our geodetic mass balance estimates will improve the estimation of meltwater run-off component of the hydrological cycle in this part of the Himalaya, which could be used to calibrate/validate glacier mass balance models.

Combination of geometric and gravimetric data sets for the estimation of high-resolution mass balances of the Greenland ice sheet

SUMMARY In this study, we develop a model that allows to combine gravimetric and geometric data. By the combination, we improve the spatial resolution of the resulting mass balance estimate compared to a purely gravimetric one. The equivalent ice or firn density of the changing ice volume is estimated within a mathematical inversion model, which includes geometric information about the volumetric change of the ice sheet and the resulting gravity change. This gravity change is computed from monthly GRACE gravity fields. They have a limited spatial resolution of a few 100 km, but allow direct conclusions about the true mass changes over Greenland. The ice-volume changes are described by a product by the Climate Change Initiative of European Space Agency, which is based on altimetry data. They have a very fine spatial resolution (down to a few km), but are not directly sensitive to mass changes. By combining both data sets in a common mathematical model, the advantages of both data types (direct sensitivity to mass versus high spatial resolution) are made use of. In this way, we improve the spatial resolution of mass balance estimates over Greenland. This leads to a map of mass trends, which has the same spatial resolution as the input map of geometric changes, but which is consistent with the input gravity fields. It will enable improving the localization of mass change signals of ice sheets and glaciers, which are usually rather small-scale. We compare our estimates to the results of complementary studies regarding the total mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet and its surrounding land surface. Our study leads to a value of $-213\pm 37\, \text{Gt}\,\text{a}^{-1}$ in the time span from 2011 to 2015. We also discuss the problem of separating the mass contribution of the Greenland ice sheet itself and its surrounding region.

Evaluating the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution over the Antarctic domain using a variable-resolution Earth system model

Abstract. Earth system models are essential tools for understanding the impacts of a warming world, particularly on the contribution of polar ice sheets to sea level change. However, current models lack full coupling of the ice sheets to the ocean and are typically run at a coarse resolution (1∘ grid spacing or coarser). Coarse spatial resolution is particularly a problem over Antarctica, where sub-grid-scale orography is well-known to influence precipitation fields, and glacier models require high-resolution atmospheric inputs. This resolution limitation has been partially addressed by regional climate models (RCMs), which must be forced at their lateral and ocean surface boundaries by (usually coarser) global atmospheric datasets, However, RCMs fail to capture the two-way coupling between the regional domain and the global climate system. Conversely, running high-spatial-resolution models globally is computationally expensive and can produce vast amounts of data. Alternatively, variable-resolution grids can retain the benefits of high resolution over a specified domain without the computational costs of running at a high resolution globally. Here we evaluate a historical simulation of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) implementing the spectral element (SE) numerical dynamical core (VR-CESM2) with an enhanced-horizontal-resolution (0.25∘) grid over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the surrounding Southern Ocean; the rest of the global domain is on the standard 1∘ grid. We compare it to 1∘ model runs of CESM2 using both the SE dynamical core and the standard finite-volume (FV) dynamical core, both with identical physics and forcing, including prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice concentrations from observations. Our evaluation reveals both improvements and degradations in VR-CESM2 performance relative to the 1∘ CESM2. Surface mass balance estimates are slightly higher but within 1 standard deviation of the ensemble mean, except for over the Antarctic Peninsula, which is impacted by better-resolved surface topography. Temperature and wind estimates are improved over both the near surface and aloft, although the overall correction of a cold bias (within the 1∘ CESM2 runs) has resulted in temperatures which are too high over the interior of the ice sheet. The major degradations include the enhancement of surface melt as well as excessive cloud liquid water over the ocean, with resultant impacts on the surface radiation budget. Despite these changes, VR-CESM2 is a valuable tool for the analysis of precipitation and surface mass balance and thus constraining estimates of sea level rise associated with the Antarctic Ice Sheet.