Estimated Inversion Strength Research Articles

Systematic Upstream Large-Scale Control of Subtropical Low-Cloud Properties

Abstract It has recently been shown that the slow adjustment of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) to perturbations of the large-scale atmospheric conditions translate into an upstream control of the low-cloud cover (LCC) variability at climatological timescales in the subtropics. In this study we expand upon this recent study to investigate upstream control of the climatology of low-cloud radiative effect (CRE), as well as cloud properties relevant to their radiative effect: cloud liquid water path (LWP), and cloud optical depth (COD).We use machine-learning statistical models with feature selection capabilities (random-forests) to determine the influence of the local and upstream large-scale conditions in monthly data. These conditions are determined using back-trajectories in monthly-mean wind fields. Total CRE, dominated by the shortwave contribution, exhibits a dependence on upstream Estimated Inversion Strength (EIS), but not on upstream Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) as LCC does. Upstream control of COD was present but was not as consistent as LCC or CRE across different regions and cloud regimes, while LWP does not exhibit strong upstream control at all. This implies that the control of other boundary layer properties could explain the differences in response between LCC and CRE to SST and EIS. Looking at five subtropical eastern basins, it appears that key lead times are region-specific. The inclusion of upstream control provides significant improvements to the predictive skill of statistical models over local linear regression, with improvements in variance explained well over 20% in many cases.

Observations of the macrophysical properties of cumulus cloud fields over the tropical western Pacific and their connection to meteorological variables

Abstract. The poor representation of the macrophysical properties of shallow oceanic cumuli in climate models contributes to the large uncertainty in cloud feedback. These properties are also difficult to measure because it requires high-resolution satellite imagery that is seldomly collected over ocean. Here, we examine cumulus cloud macrophysical properties, their size, shape, and spatial distributions, over the tropical western Pacific using 170 15 m resolution scenes from Terra's Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) collected during the 2019 Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex) mission. The average cloud fraction (CF) was 0.12, half of which was contributed by clouds less than 1.6 km in area-equivalent diameter. This compared well to Terra's Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) resolution-corrected CF of 0.14 but less than the 0.19 measured by Terra's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The cloud size distribution exhibited a power law form with an exponent of 2.93 and an area–perimeter power law with a dimension of 1.25. ASTER, MISR, and CAMP2Ex aircraft lidar showed excellent agreement in the cloud top height (CTH) distribution peak altitude of ∼ 750 m. We examined cumulus properties in relation to meteorological variables and found that the variation in mean CTH is controlled most by the total column water vapor, lower-tropospheric stability (LTS), and estimated inversion strength (EIS). The variation in CF is most controlled by surface wind speed and near-cloud relative humidity instead of LTS/EIS, suggesting the need to improve low-cloud parameterizations in climate models that use LTS/EIS based on stratocumulus studies.

Subseasonal Variation Characteristics of Low-Cloud Fraction in Southeastern and Northwestern North Pacific

The subseasonal variability of the low-cloud fraction (LCF) over the southeastern North Pacific (SENP) and northwestern North Pacific (NWNP) was studied using satellite observations and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis. It is found that subseasonal variability of the LCF was closely related to variations in the estimated inversion strength (EIS), sea surface wind speed (SSW), sensible heat flux (SHF), sea surface temperature (SST), surface temperature advection (Tadv), relative humidity (RH), surface level pressure (SLP) and surface air temperature (SAT). An increase in the LCF over the SENP is associated with the development of an anomalous anticyclonic circulation, which is located on the west coast of America. The cold advection, together with the subsidence warming associated with the anticyclonic circulation, strengthens the temperature inversion, favoring the development of the LCF. In the NWNP, the maximum LCF anomaly was also correlated with the stable boundary layer. The southerly wind blows airflow over the Kuroshio Extension from the subtropics, which brings warm and moist air. When air flows to the colder sea surface, it is cooled and condensed by the intensified heat exchange. A lead-lag composite analysis indicates that the mechanisms are different between the SENP and the NWNP, possibly due to the different types of low-level clouds over these two regions. In the SENP, the trade cumulus dominates under a strong capping inversion over the subtropics, whereas fog and stratus often occur under a shallow capping inversion in the NWNP. The effects of atmospheric circulation are also discussed.

Dominant Cloud Controlling Factors for Low‐Level Cloud Fraction: Subtropical Versus Extratropical Oceans

AbstractTo improve cloud feedback understanding and simulation, observations have been used to quantify the rate of change of cloud radiative properties as a function of specific environmental metrics (or cloud controlling factors; CCFs). The study focuses on low‐level cloud dominated regions during 2006–2010. For each ocean gridpoint, Spearman's rank correlation coefficients of daily mean observed cloud fraction versus (a) 10‐m wind, (b) sensible heat flux (SHF), (c) sea surface temperature, (d) estimated inversion strength (EIS), (e) 850 hPa vertical velocity, and (f) the M parameter () are sorted to identify the dominant CCFs in both extratropics (30°–60°N/S) and subtropics (30°S–30°N). A novel map for visualizing dominant CCFs for low‐level cloud fraction reveals that: dominates in the subtropical stratocumulus regions while 10‐m winds dominate in shallow cumulus regions but in the extratropics, a different inversion structure diagnostic (EIS) dominates, while SHF dominates in western boundary current areas.

Sensitivities of cloud radiative effects to large-scale meteorology and aerosols from global observations

Abstract. The radiative effects of clouds make a large contribution to the Earth's energy balance, and changes in clouds constitute the dominant source of uncertainty in the global warming response to carbon dioxide forcing. To characterize and constrain this uncertainty, cloud-controlling factor (CCF) analyses have been suggested that estimate sensitivities of clouds to large-scale environmental changes, typically in cloud-regime-specific multiple linear regression frameworks. Here, local sensitivities of cloud radiative effects to a large number of controlling factors are estimated in a regime-independent framework from 20 years (2001–2020) of near-global (60∘ N–60∘ S) satellite observations and reanalysis data using statistical learning. A regularized linear regression (ridge regression) is shown to skillfully predict anomalies of shortwave (R2=0.63) and longwave cloud radiative effects (CREs) (R2=0.72) in independent test data on the basis of 28 CCFs, including aerosol proxies. The sensitivity of CREs to selected CCFs is quantified and analyzed. CRE sensitivities to sea surface temperature and estimated inversion strength are particularly pronounced in low-cloud regions and generally in agreement with previous studies. The analysis of CRE sensitivities to three-dimensional wind field anomalies reflects the fact that CREs in tropical ascent regions are mainly driven by variability of large-scale vertical velocity in the upper troposphere. In the subtropics, CRE is sensitive to free-tropospheric zonal and meridional wind anomalies, which are likely to encapsulate information on synoptic variability that influences subtropical cloud systems by modifying wind shear and thus turbulence and dry-air entrainment in stratocumulus clouds, as well as variability related to midlatitude cyclones. Different proxies for aerosols are analyzed as CCFs, with satellite-derived aerosol proxies showing a larger CRE sensitivity than a proxy from an aerosol reanalysis, likely pointing to satellite aerosol retrieval biases close to clouds, leading to overestimated aerosol sensitivities. Sensitivities of shortwave CREs to all aerosol proxies indicate a pronounced cooling effect from aerosols in stratocumulus regions that is counteracted to a varying degree by a longwave warming effect. The analysis may guide the selection of CCFs in future sensitivity analyses aimed at constraining cloud feedback and climate forcings from aerosol–cloud interactions using data from both observations and global climate models.

Observational Constraints on the Cloud Feedback Pattern Effect

Abstract Model evidence for the “pattern effect” assumes that global climate models (GCMs) faithfully simulate how clouds respond to varying sea surface temperature (SST) patterns and associated meteorological perturbations. We exploit time-invariant satellite-based estimates of the sensitivity of marine low clouds to meteorological perturbations to estimate how these clouds responded to time-varying SST patterns and meteorology between 1870 and 2014. GCMs and reanalyses provide estimates of the historical meteorological changes. Observations suggest that increasing estimated inversion strength (EIS) between 1980 and 2014 produced a negative low cloud feedback, opposite to the positive feedback expected from increasing CO2. This indicates that the processes responsible for marine cloud changes from 1980 to the near present are distinct from those associated with an increase in CO2. We also observationally constrain the difference between the historical near-global marine low cloud feedback, , and that arising from increasing CO2, . We find that this cloud feedback pattern effect depends strongly on time period and reanalysis dataset, and that varying changes in EIS and SST with warming explain much of its variability. Between 1980 and 2014, we estimate that (90% confidence) assuming meteorological changes from the Multiple Reanalysis Ensemble, implying a total pattern effect (that arising from all climate feedbacks) of 1.86 ± 0.45 W m−2 K−1. This observational evidence corroborates previous quantitative estimates of the pattern effect, which heretofore relied largely upon GCM-based cloud changes. However, disparate historical meteorological changes across individual reanalyses contribute to considerable uncertainty in its magnitude.

Upstream Large-Scale Control of Subtropical Low-Cloud Climatology

Abstract This study investigates the impact of the adjustment times of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) on the control of low-cloud coverage (LCC) climatology by large-scale atmospheric conditions in the subtropics. Using monthly data, we calculate back-trajectories and use machine learning statistical models with feature selection capabilities to determine the influence of local and upstream large-scale conditions on LCC for four physical cloud regimes: the stratocumulus (Sc) deck, the along-flow transition into the Sc deck (“Inflow”), the Sc-to-cumulus transition, and trade-cumulus clouds. All four regimes have unique local and upstream relationships with the large-scale meteorological variables within our parameter space, with upstream controls of LCC being the dominant processes in Sc deck and Sc-to-cumulus transition regimes. The time scales associated with these upstream controls across all regimes are consistent with known adjustment time scales of the ABL, determined in both modeling and observational studies. We find that low-level thermodynamic stratification (estimated inversion strength) is not the most important large-scale variable for LCC prediction in transition and trade-cumulus regimes despite its ubiquitous use as a proxy for LCC throughout the subtropics. Including upstream control provides significant improvements to the skill of statistical models predicting monthly LCC, increasing explained variance on the order of 15% in the Inflow, Sc deck, and transition regimes, but provides no improvement in the trade-cumulus regime.

Profile-based estimated inversion strength

Abstract. To better measure the planetary boundary layer inversion strength (IS), a novel profile-based method of estimated inversion strength (EISp) is developed using the ERA5 daily reanalysis data. The EISp is designed to estimate the IS based on the thinnest possible reanalysis layer above the lifting condensation level encompassing the inversion layer. At a ground-based site in North America, the EISp correlates better with the radiosonde-detected IS (R=0.74) than the lower-tropospheric stability (LTS, R=0.53) and the estimated inversion strength (EIS, R=0.45). The daily variance in low cloud cover (LCC) explained by the EISp is twice that explained by the LTS and EIS. Higher correlations between the EISp and the radiosonde-detected IS are also found at other radiosonde stations of the subtropics and midlatitudes. Analysis of LCC observed by geostationary satellites and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer shows that the EISp explains 78 % of the annual mean LCC spatial variance over global oceans and land, which is larger than that explained by the LTS and EIS (48 % and 13 %). Over tropical and subtropical low-cloud-prevailing eastern oceans, the LCC range is more resolved by the EISp (48 %) than by the LTS and EIS (37 % and 36 %). Furthermore, the EISp explains a larger fraction (32 %) in the daily LCC variance as compared to that explained by the LTS and EIS (14 % and 16 %). The seasonal LCC variance explained by the EISp is 89 %, which is larger than that explained by the LTS and EIS (80 % and 70 %). The LCC–EISp relationship is more uniform across various timescales than the LCC–LTS and LCC–EIS relationships. It is suggested that the EISp is a better cloud-controlling factor for LCC and is likely a useful external environmental constraint for process-level studies in which there is a need to control for large-scale meteorology in order to isolate the cloud responses to aerosols on short timescales.

Type dependent role of aerosols in reversing the first indirect effect over the north Indian Ocean

ABSTRACT Present study investigates the role of aerosol types in modulating warm cloud microphysics over the north Indian Ocean using long-term (2006–2016) satellite and re-analysis data. Analysis of well-mixed aerosol and marine warm cloud layers observed from daily co-located Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite over northern Indian Ocean revealed the occurrence of reverse Twomey effect in warm clouds having liquid water path (LWP) less than 75 g m−2. Such clouds are found to occur under a rather stable (Estimated Inversion Strength (EIS) > 2) and dry atmospheric conditions (Free Tropospheric Humidity (FTH) < 40%). Analysis of estimated cloud-top entrainment index (ECTEI) and cloud-top entrainment instability (CTEI) quantitatively suggested that entrainment of dry air can have a significant role in reversing the first indirect effect. Further, investigation on the role of various aerosol types in well mixed clouds revealed that dust aerosols have predominant role in reversing the Twomey effect over the north Indian Ocean.

Estimated cloud-top entrainment index explains positive low-cloud-cover feedback

How subtropical marine low cloud cover (LCC) will respond to global warming is a major source of uncertainty in future climate change. Although the estimated inversion strength (EIS) is a good predictive index of LCC, it has a serious limitation when applied to evaluate LCC changes due to warming: The LCC decreases despite increases in EIS in future climate simulations of global climate models (GCMs). In this work, using state-of-the-art GCMs, we show that the recently proposed estimated cloud-top entrainment index (ECTEI) decreases consistently with LCC in warmer sea surface temperature (SST) climates. For the patterned SST warming predicted by coupled GCMs, ECTEI can constrain the subtropical marine LCC feedback to -0.41 ± 0.28% K-1 (90% CI), implying virtually certain positive feedback. ECTEI physically explains the heuristic model for LCC changes based on a linear combination of EIS and SST changes in previous studies in terms of cloud-top entrainment processes.

Re‐Evaluation of Low Cloud Amount Relationships With Lower‐Tropospheric Stability and Estimated Inversion Strength

AbstractLower‐tropospheric stability (LTS) and estimated inversion strength (EIS) have a widely accepted relationship with low cloud amount and are key observational foundations for understanding and modeling low‐level stratiform clouds. Using the updated surface‐based and satellite cloud data, we find that low cloud amount is not as strongly correlated with LTS, and not as sensitive to LTS, as established in the past. EIS does not provide a stronger correlation with low cloud amount than LTS over all eight regions (including the midlatitudes). Further analyzing the relationships between LTS and EIS with different types of low clouds, we find that there is a strong correlation of LTS and EIS with stratocumulus only. This explains the weaker correlation of low cloud fraction (including cumulus, stratocumulus, and stratus) to both LTS and EIS. These results also suggest the need to re‐evaluate these relationships in Earth system models.

Factors affecting precipitation formation and precipitation susceptibility of marine stratocumulus with variable above- and below-cloud aerosol concentrations over the Southeast Atlantic

Abstract. Aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions (ACIs) provide the greatest source of uncertainties in predicting changes in Earth's energy budget due to poor representation of marine stratocumulus and the associated ACIs in climate models. Using in situ data from 329 cloud profiles across 24 research flights from the NASA ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) field campaign in September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018, it is shown that contact between above-cloud biomass burning aerosols and marine stratocumulus over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean was associated with precipitation suppression and a decrease in the precipitation susceptibility (So) to aerosols. The 173 “contact” profiles with aerosol concentration (Na) greater than 500 cm−3 within 100 m above cloud tops had a 50 % lower precipitation rate (Rp) and a 20 % lower So, on average, compared to 156 “separated” profiles with Na less than 500 cm−3 up to at least 100 m above cloud tops. Contact and separated profiles had statistically significant differences in droplet concentration (Nc) and effective radius (Re) (95 % confidence intervals from a two-sample t test are reported). Contact profiles had 84 to 90 cm−3 higher Nc and 1.4 to 1.6 µm lower Re compared to separated profiles. In clean boundary layers (below-cloud Na less than 350 cm−3), contact profiles had 25 to 31 cm−3 higher Nc and 0.2 to 0.5 µm lower Re. In polluted boundary layers (below-cloud Na exceeding 350 cm−3), contact profiles had 98 to 108 cm−3 higher Nc and 1.6 to 1.8 µm lower Re. On the other hand, contact and separated profiles had statistically insignificant differences between the average liquid water path, cloud thickness, and meteorological parameters like surface temperature, lower tropospheric stability, and estimated inversion strength. These results suggest the changes in cloud microphysical properties were driven by ACIs rather than meteorological effects, and adjustments to existing relationships between Rp and Nc in model parameterizations should be considered to account for the role of ACIs.

Susceptibility of East Asian Marine Warm Clouds to Aerosols in Winter and Spring from Co-Located A-Train Satellite Observations

We constructed the A-Train co-located aerosol and marine warm cloud data from 2006 to 2010 winter and spring over East Asia and investigated the sensitivities of single-layer warm cloud properties to aerosols under different precipitation statuses and environmental regimes. The near-surface stability (NSS), modulated by cold air on top of a warm surface, and the estimated inversion strength (EIS) controlled by the subsidence are critical environmental parameters affecting the marine warm cloud structure over East Asia and, thus, the aerosols–cloud interactions. Based on our analysis, precipitating clouds revealed higher cloud susceptibility to aerosols as compared to non-precipitating clouds. The cloud liquid water path (LWP) increased with aerosols for precipitating clouds, yet decreased with aerosols for non-precipitating clouds, consistent with previous studies. For precipitating clouds, the cloud LWP and albedo increased more under higher NSS as unstable air promotes more moisture flux from the ocean. Under stronger EIS, the cloud albedo response to aerosols was lower than that under weaker EIS, indicating that stronger subsidence weakens the cloud susceptibility due to more entrainment drying. Our study suggests that the critical environmental factors governing the aerosol–cloud interactions may vary for different oceanic regions, depending on the thermodynamic conditions.

On the Importance of Sea Surface Temperature for Aerosol‐Induced Brightening of Marine Clouds and Implications for Cloud Feedback in a Future Warmer Climate

AbstractMarine low clouds are one of the greatest sources of uncertainty for climate projection. We present an observed climatology of cloud albedo susceptibility to cloud droplet number concentration perturbations (S0) with changing sea surface temperature (SST) and estimated inversion strength for single‐layer warm clouds over the North Atlantic Ocean, using eight years of satellite and reanalysis data. The key findings are that SST has a dominant control on S0 in the presence of co‐varying synoptic conditions and aerosol perturbations. Cloud brightening in regions with positive S0 weakens with increasing local SST. Higher SST significantly hastens cloud‐top evaporation with increasing aerosol loading, by accelerating entrainment and facilitating entrainment drying. In a global‐warming‐like scenario where aerosol loading is reduced, more cloud brightening is expected, mainly as a result of reduced entrainment drying. Our results imply a less positive low‐cloud liquid water path feedback in a warmer climate with decreasing aerosol loading.

Varied midlatitude shortwave cloud radiative responses to Southern Hemisphere circulation shifts

AbstractChanges in midlatitude clouds as a result of shifts in general circulation patterns are widely thought to be a potential source of radiative feedbacks onto the climate system. Previous work has suggested that two general circulation shifts anticipated to occur in a warming climate, poleward shifts in the midlatitude jet streams and a poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, are associated with differing effects on midlatitude clouds. This study examines two dynamical cloud‐controlling factors, mid‐tropospheric vertical velocity, and the estimated inversion strength (EIS) of the marine boundary layer temperature inversion, to explain why poleward shifts in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude jet and Hadley cell edge have varying shortwave cloud‐radiative responses at midlatitudes. Changes in vertical velocity and EIS occur further equatorward for poleward shifts in the Hadley cell edge than they do for poleward shifts of the midlatitude jet. Because the sensitivity of shortwave cloud radiative effects (SWCRE) to variations in vertical velocity and EIS is a function of latitude, the SWCRE anomalies associated with jet and Hadley cell shifts differ. The dynamical changes associated with a poleward jet shift occur further poleward in a regime where the sensitivities of SWCRE to changes in vertical velocity and EIS balance, leading to a near‐net zero change in SWCRE in midlatitudes with a poleward jet shift. Conversely, the dynamical changes associated with Hadley cell expansion occur further equatorward at a latitude where the sensitivity of SWCRE is more strongly associated with changes in mid‐tropospheric vertical velocity, leading to a net shortwave cloud radiative warming effect in midlatitudes.

Midlatitude Cloud Radiative Effect Sensitivity to Cloud Controlling Factors in Observations and Models: Relationship with Southern Hemisphere Jet Shifts and Climate Sensitivity

AbstractAn effective method to understand cloud processes and to assess the fidelity with which they are represented in climate models is the cloud controlling factor framework, in which cloud properties are linked with variations in large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical variables. This study examines how midlatitude cloud radiative effects (CRE) over oceans co-vary with four cloud controlling factors: mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, estimated inversion strength (EIS), near-surface temperature advection, and sea surface temperature (SST), and assesses their representation in CMIP6 models with respect to observations and CMIP5 models.CMIP5 and CMIP6 models overestimate the sensitivity of midlatitude CRE to perturbations in vertical velocity, and underestimate the sensitivity of midlatitude shortwave CRE to perturbations in EIS and temperature advection. The largest improvement in CMIP6 models is a reduced sensitivity of CRE to vertical velocity perturbations. As in CMIP5 models, many CMIP6 models simulate a shortwave cloud radiative warming effect associated with a poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude jet stream, an effect not present in observations. This bias arises because most models’ shortwave CRE are too sensitive to vertical velocity perturbations and not sensitive enough to EIS perturbations, and because most models overestimate the SST anomalies associated with SH jet shifts. The presence of this bias directly impacts the transient surface temperature response to increasing greenhouse gases over the Southern Ocean, but not the global-mean surface temperature. Instead, the models’ climate sensitivity is correlated with their shortwave CRE sensitivity to surface temperature advection perturbations near 40°S, with models with more realistic values of temperature advection sensitivity generally having higher climate sensitivity.

Observed response of marine boundary layer cloud to the interannual variations of summertime Oyashio extension SST front

Active roles of both sea surface temperature (SST) and its frontal characteristics to the atmosphere in the mid-latitudes have been investigated around the western boundary current regions, and most studies have focused on winter season. The present study investigated the influence of the variation of the summertime Oyashio extension SST front (SSTF) in modulating low-level cloud properties (i.e., low-level cloud cover [LCC], cloud optical thickness [COT], and shortwave cloud radiative effect [SWCRE]) on inter-annual timescales, based on available satellite and Argo float datasets during 2003–2016. First, we examined the mechanism of summertime SSTF variability itself. The strength of the SSTF (SSSTF), defined as the maximum horizontal gradient of SST, has clear inter-annual variations. Frontogenesis equation analysis and regression analysis for subsurface temperature indicated that the inter-annual variations of the summertime SSSTF in the western North Pacific are closely related to the variations of not surface heat flux, but western boundary currents, particularly the Oyashio Extensions. The response of low-level cloud to intensified SSSTF is that negative SWCRE with positive COT anomaly in the northern flank of the SSTF can be induced by cold SST anomalies. The spatial scale of the low-level cloud response was larger than the SST frontal scale, and the spatial distribution of the response was mainly constrained by the pathways of Kuroshio and Oyashio Extensions. Multi-linear regression analysis revealed that the local SST anomaly played largest role in modulating the SWCRE and COT anomalies among the cloud controlling factors (e.g., estimated inversion strength, air-temperature advection) accounting for more than 50% of the variation. This study provides an observational evidence of the active role of local SST anomalies in summertime associated with the western boundary currents to the oceanic low-level cloud.

Air–Sea Interactions among Oceanic Low-Level Cloud, Sea Surface Temperature, and Atmospheric Circulation on an Intraseasonal Time Scale in the Summertime North Pacific Based on Satellite Data Analysis

AbstractLow-level cloud plays a key role in modulating air–sea interaction processes and sea surface temperature (SST) variability. The present study investigated the evolution process of oceanic low-level cloud cover (LCC) and related air–sea interaction processes on an intraseasonal time scale in the summertime (June–October) North Pacific (30°–40°N, 165°–175°E) based on satellite observational and reanalysis datasets from 2003 to 2016. The intraseasonal time scale (20–100 days) is dominant not only for the LCC, but also for LCC controlling factors, that is, SST, estimated inversion strength (EIS), and horizontal temperature advection (Tadv). To reveal the lead–lag relationship among these variables, we conducted phase composite analysis with a bandpass filter based on the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of LCC. It suggests that ISV of LCC leads to that of SST and that horizontal dry–cold advection from the poleward region leads to increasing LCC and decreasing SST. The increasing LCC corresponds to a positive relative humidity (RH) anomaly in the lower troposphere, which is due to adiabatic cooling with shallow convection, vertical moisture advection, and meridional RH advection associated with the anomalous cold Tadv. Heat budget analysis of the ocean mixed layer suggests the importance of anomalous dry–cold advection for cooling SST, not only via enhanced latent heat release but also via decreased downward shortwave radiation at the sea surface according to cloud radiative effect with a positive LCC anomaly. Determining the detailed lead–lag relationship between LCC and its controlling factor is a good approach to understand mechanisms of the local processes of both low-level cloud evolution and air–sea interaction.

Observed Sensitivity of Low-Cloud Radiative Effects to Meteorological Perturbations over the Global Oceans

AbstractUnderstanding how marine low clouds and their radiative effects respond to changing meteorological conditions is crucial to constrain low-cloud feedbacks to greenhouse warming and internal climate variability. In this study, we use observations to quantify the low-cloud radiative response to meteorological perturbations over the global oceans to shed light on physical processes governing low-cloud and planetary radiation budget variability in different climate regimes. We assess the independent effect of perturbations in sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength, horizontal surface temperature advection, 700-hPa relative humidity, 700-hPa vertical velocity, and near-surface wind speed. Stronger inversions and stronger cold advection greatly enhance low-level cloudiness and planetary albedo in eastern ocean stratocumulus and midlatitude regimes. Warming of the sea surface drives pronounced reductions of eastern ocean stratocumulus cloud amount and optical depth, and hence reflectivity, but has a weaker and more variable impact on low clouds in the tropics and middle latitudes. By reducing entrainment drying, higher free-tropospheric relative humidity enhances low-level cloudiness. At low latitudes, where cold advection destabilizes the boundary layer, stronger winds enhance low-level cloudiness; by contrast, wind speed variations have weak influence at midlatitudes where warm advection frequently stabilizes the marine boundary layer, thus inhibiting vertical mixing. These observational constraints provide a framework for understanding and evaluating marine low-cloud feedbacks and their simulation by models.

On the Relationship Between the Marine Cold Air Outbreak M Parameter and Low‐Level Cloud Heights in the Midlatitudes

AbstractFocusing on conditions of subsidence when low clouds are present, ground‐based observations in both the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean reveal strong relationships between cloud boundary (base and top heights) and different measures of lower tropospheric instability. The difference in potential temperature between the surface and 800 hPa (a metric called M) provides a stronger relationship than measures of inversion strength such as the lower tropospheric stability and estimated inversion strength. This is because (1) inversion strength itself does not correlate well with cloud boundaries, and (2) M contains information that appears important for cloud boundaries. These include the surface forcing through the use of sea surface rather than near‐surface air temperature and an upper level close to the real cloud top. These results expand upon previous work on the importance of M as a predictor of cloud morphology. However, important differences are found in low‐cloud conditions for the North Atlantic as compared to the Southern Ocean (for a given value of M): stronger inversions, deeper boundary layers, and much larger sea level pressures. Therefore, the relationship between cloud boundaries and M differs between the two regions. A general circulation model provides similar relationships as observed between M and both cloud top height and temperature but tends to place clouds higher and at colder temperatures than observed for a given M. This might cause issues with the representation of precipitation, cloud cover and radiation in the Southern Ocean.