Potential Evapotranspiration Estimates Research Articles

Assessment of Meteorological Drought in a Changing Environment: An Example in the Upper Yangtze River

AbstractRecent studies have suggested that drought projections using Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and standardized evapotranspiration precipitation index (SPEI) may overestimate drought severity. This overestimation occurs because the potential evapotranspiration (PET) calculations fail to consider the interactive effects of vegetation responses such as increased leaf area index (LAI) and constrained stomatal conductance, which are influenced by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]). To address this issue, our study replaced the traditional Penman‐Monteith (PM) equation with a recently proposed PET equation that includes the effects of changing [CO2] and LAI to assess droughts at monthly scale in the Upper Yangtze River basin, which experiences the vegetation greening. The findings indicated a consistent increasing trend in drought conditions with minimal discrepancy between the two equations over the historical period (1986–2017). This consistency arises because the water‐saving effects of increased [CO2] and the greening effects of rising LAI largely counterbalance each other. However, for the future period (2018–2100), projections using PM equation predicted an intensification of drought conditions. In contrast, the improved SPEI indicated no significant drought variations, and the improved PDSI suggested a wetting trend. This divergence can be attributed to the water‐saving effects increasingly outweighing the greening effects, as PET shows a decreasing sensitivity to LAI with LAI increasing, but maintains a near‐constant sensitivity to elevated [CO2]. Consequently, the indices based on PM equation tend to overestimate future drought severity. Overall, this study demonstrates that the new PET estimation method is more capable of responding to the changing environment.

Evaluation of potential evapotranspiration models over fluxdata network cropland sites

Utilizing potential evapotranspiration (PET) for the estimation of actual evapotranspiration (AET) in cropland is highly valuable for determining agricultural water requirements and developing irrigation schedules. Discrepancies between anticipated and actual PET values may arise due to the limitations in previous reference standards employed for evaluation. A comprehensive evaluation of the accuracy of the PET models in cropland was conducted in this study. Non-water-stressed days with evaporation fraction (EF) exceeding the 95th percentile threshold were selected from cropland sites in the FLUXNET Tier 1 database as the basis for calibrating and validating 22 PET calculation models at the daily scale and 19 at the sub-daily scale. Results indicated that the Penman (1948), Penman (1963), and all radiation-based models showed strong performance, with R2, RMSE, and NSE of 0.82–0.89, 0.58–0.86 mm day−1, and 0.54–0.77 at the daily scale, and 0.73–0.81, 0.04–0.05 mm 0.5 h−1, and 0.62–0.72 at the sub-daily scale, respectively. Four recently developed radiation-based models have exhibited remarkable accuracy on a daily basis. The relative model errors (RMSE/MEAN) tended to decrease as net radiation (Rn), temperature (Ta), and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased at both daily and sub-daily time scales. The models displayed strong accuracy in estimating daily PET when Ta > 15 ℃ or 0.4 < VPD < 1.0, with RMSE/MEAN values ranging from 0.10 to 0.22 and R2 values ranging from 0.76 to 0.89. Higher accuracy in sub-daily scale PET estimates was achieved when Ta > 15 ℃ or 0.4 < VPD < 1.6, with RMSE/MEAN of 0.24–0.43 and R2 of 0.54–0.85, respectively. Additionally, the time lag between PET and Rn, Ta, and VPD increased as Rn, Ta, and VPD increased at the sub-daily scale, which may contribute to the reduced precision of sub-daily PET estimates compared to daily scale estimates. These findings suggest that PET models with calibrated parameters have the potential to serve as the basis for estimating cropland AET, and can provide direction for future model improvement.

PyEt v1.3.1: a Python package for the estimation of potential evapotranspiration

Abstract. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a crucial flux of the hydrological water balance, commonly estimated using (semi-)empirical formulas. The estimated flux may strongly depend on the formula used, adding uncertainty to the outcomes of environmental studies using ET. Climate change may cause additional uncertainty, as the ET estimated by each formula may respond differently to changes in meteorological input data. To include the effects of model uncertainty and climate change and facilitate the use of these formulas in a consistent, tested, and reproducible workflow, we present PyEt. PyEt is an open-source Python package for the estimation of daily potential evapotranspiration (PET) using available meteorological data. It allows the application of 20 different PET methods on both time series and gridded datasets. The majority of the implemented methods are benchmarked against literature values and tested with continuous integration to ensure the correctness of the implementation. This article provides an overview of PyEt's capabilities, including the estimation of PET with 20 PET methods for station and gridded data, a simple procedure for calibrating the empirical coefficients in the alternative PET methods, and estimation of PET under warming and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration. Further discussion on the advantages of using PyEt estimates as input for hydrological models, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, and hindcasting and forecasting studies (especially in data-scarce regions) is provided.

Evaluating potential evapotranspiration methods in a rapidly warming Arctic region, SW Spitsbergen (1983–2023)

Study regionsHornsund, SW Spitsbergen, Svalbard – area representing atlantic sector of High Arctic Study focusSvalbard's warming climate significantly alters its hydrological conditions. Evapotranspiration, a crucial hydrological component, is understudied in this High Arctic environment. In this study, daily potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimates for the period 1983–2023 were calculated using meteorological data from the Polish Polar Station Hornsund (SW Spitsbergen). 11 different PET methods were applied, those include radiation-based, temperature-based, radiation-temperature-based, and combined methods. New hydrological insights for the regionThe results show a large spread in the annual sum of PET ranging from ∼20 mm/y (Kharrufa) through ∼300 mm/y (Penman-Monteith) up to ∼450 mm/y (Abtew). Trends analysis shows different outcomes depending on the length of the averaging period. Using a daily timescale, PET methods tend to show more similar patterns of changes than using monthly timescales. The changes in PET estimates differ between the models, hence classifying PET methods should consider their sensitivity to meteorological changes. PET estimates were compared with pan measurements at a daily time scale in 2022–2023. The Penman method produced the best results in relation to pan measurements. In other cases, despite a relatively high linear correlation, calibration to local conditions is needed to scale the outcomes and limit biases. This study improves understanding of how PET models perform in the rapidly changing High Arctic climate.

Physical basis of the potential evapotranspiration and its estimation over land

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) as the upper limit of the water vapor flux into the atmosphere is a fundamental and important concept in climate-related research. However, estimation of the PET using various approaches remains highly uncertain. Here we show the PET is overestimated by widely used Penman equation, as the underlying assumption of a saturated surface is not satisfied over most land surface. When the surface is unsaturated, the PET estimated from the aerodynamic approach (PETa) would exceed that from the energy balance approach (PETe), and the combination of the two in the Penman equation would lead to a systematic overestimation of the PET over land. This issue can be resolved with a modified Penman equation that accounts for the difference between PETe and PETa. Furthermore, we show that PETe as a function of the net radiation and a wet Bowen ratio is a good estimator of the PET based on the observationally constrained ERA5 reanalysis product. First, PETe can accurately estimate the ET over the ocean. Second, PETe is not sensitive to the surface moisture content, and the estimated PETe from observations under dry conditions approximates the PET well when the surface becomes saturated. Given the importance of the PET in meteorological, hydrological, ecological and agricultural research, the energy balance approach would have important implications for accurate estimation of the PET and its applications.

CMIP6-based global estimates of future aridity index and potential evapotranspiration for 2021-2060

The “Future Global Aridity Index and PET Database” provides high-resolution (30 arc-seconds) average annual and monthly global estimates of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and aridity index (AI) for 22 CMIP6 Earth System Models for two future (2021-2041; 2041-2060) and two historical (1960-1990; 1970–2000) time periods, for each of four shared socio-economic pathways (SSP). Three multimodel ensemble averages are also provided (All; Majority Consensus, High Risk) with different level of risks linked to climate model uncertainty. An overview of the methodological approach, geospatial implementation and a technical evaluation of the results is provided. Historical results were compared for technical validation with weather station data (PET: r 2 = 0.72; AI: r 2 = 0.91) and the CRU_TS v 4.04 dataset (PET: r 2 = 0.67; AI: r 2 = 0.80). Within the context of projected significant change in the near- and medium-term, the “Future_Global_AI_PET Database” provides a set of data projections and tools available for a variety of scientific and practical applications, illustrating trends and magnitude of predicted climatic and eco-hydrological impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. The Future_Global_AI_PET Database is archived in the ScienceDB repository and available online at: https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.nbsdc.00086

Assessing the Accuracy of 50 Temperature-Based Models for Estimating Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) in a Mediterranean Mountainous Forest Environment

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a crucial parameter for forest development, having an important role in ecological, biometeorological, and hydrological assessments. Accurate estimations of PET using the FAO–56 Penman–Monteith (FAO–56 PM) benchmark method require a wide range of data parameters, which are not typically available at meteorological stations installed in forest environments. The aim of this study is to investigate the accuracy of various methods with low data requirements for assessing PET in a Mediterranean forest environment and propose appropriate alternatives for accurate PET estimation. Specifically, 50 temperature-based methods were evaluated against the FAO–56 PM method in a sub-humid forest in northern Greece, using high-quality daily meteorological data. The outcomes indicate that temperature-based methods offer a viable alternative for PET estimation when data availability is limited, with a considerable number of methods (22) presenting low deviations (up to 10%) compared to the benchmark method. Temperature-based models outperformed those incorporating water-related parameters (as relative humidity or precipitation) in Mediterranean forest environments. The top performing methods in the study site, based on several statistical indices, were the equations of Ravazzani et al., proposed in 2012, followed by Hargreaves–Samani in 1985 and Heydari and Heydari in 2014.

Sensitivity of global hydrological models to potential evapotranspiration estimation methods in the Senegal River Basin (West Africa)

Study regionSenegal River Basin in West Africa Study focusThis paper aims to evaluate the sensitivity of global hydrological models to potential evapotranspiration (PET) methods in the Senegal River Basin. Potential evapotranspiration is estimated using 21 methods and its influence on the performance of three GR models (GR4J, GR5J and GR6J) is investigated in five catchments. The data used are mean rainfall, discharge and observed and calculated PET over the period 1984–1995. PET is calculated based on observed climate data and those from NASA POWER reanalysis data. The methodology consists in: (i) comparing the consistency of reanalysis data with respect to the observed PET, (ii) assessing the robustness of GR models and their sensitivity to different PET estimation methods. The evaluation criteria used to assess the performance of the hydrological model are KGE and PBIAS. New hydrological insights for the regionGood consistency is obtained between PET calculated with observed and reanalysis data. The GR4J and GR5J are more efficient to simulate flows in the Senegal River sub-basins. The aerodynamic PET methods perform well with the three hydrological models. However, in this context where data are scarce, temperature methods such as Droogers and Allen are a good choice for hydrological modeling. The results also show that the GR models have the ability to adapt to poorly estimated PET.

Distributed Hydrological Modeling With Physics‐Encoded Deep Learning: A General Framework and Its Application in the Amazon

AbstractWhile deep learning (DL) models exhibit superior simulation accuracy over traditional distributed hydrological models (DHMs), their main limitations lie in opacity and the absence of underlying physical mechanisms. The pursuit of synergies between DL and DHMs is an engaging research domain, yet a definitive roadmap remains elusive. In this study, a novel framework that seamlessly integrates a process‐based hydrological model encoded as a neural network (NN), an additional NN for mapping spatially distributed and physically meaningful parameters from watershed attributes, and NN‐based replacement models representing inadequately understood processes is developed. Multi‐source observations are used as training data, and the framework is fully differentiable, enabling fast parameter tuning by backpropagation. A hybrid DL model of the Amazon Basin (∼6 × 106 km2) was established based on the framework, and HydroPy, a global‐scale DHM, was encoded as its physical backbone. Trained simultaneously with streamflow observations and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite data, the hybrid model yielded median Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.83 and 0.77 for dynamic and distributed simulations of streamflow and total water storage, respectively, 41% and 35% higher than those of the original HydroPy model. Replacing the original Penman‒Monteith formulation in HydroPy with a replacement NN produces more plausible potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimates, and unravels the spatial pattern of PET in this giant basin. The NN used for parameterization was interpreted to identify the factors controlling the spatial variability in key parameters. Overall, this study lays out a feasible technical roadmap for distributed hydrological modeling in the big data era.

Sensitivity of Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to the choice of SPEI probability distribution and evapotranspiration method

Study regionThe state of Oklahoma located in the Southern Plains region of the United States. Study focusThe standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is a widely used meteorological drought index that incorporates potential evapotranspiration (PET) into a precipitation-based index. However, the understanding of the appropriate PET method for SPEI across different temporal scales in non-arid climate conditions remains limited. We compared Thornthwaite (TW), Hargreaves (HG), and Penman-Monteith (PM) equations for SPEI at various accumulations, considering three temporal scales: 1) long-term (25 years), 2) event-based, and 3) monthly. Also, we examined the log-logistic and generalized extreme value distributions to test the normality of SPEI computed from the three PET methods. To do this, we utilized high-quality climate datasets measured at 107 stations across the state of Oklahoma, United States, which has a diverse climate ranging from semi-arid to humid subtropical. New hydrological insights for the regionThe log-logistic distribution was found to be suitable for SPEI. The SPEI-HG showed better agreement with SPEI-PM than SPEI-TW in this region for the analyses of three temporal scales. However, for accumulations of SPEI longer than one year, both TW and HG equations showed no significant differences with SPEI-PM. The findings provide practical guidance for selecting an appropriate PET equation in the Southern Plains region depending on the purpose of study without resorting to data-intensive methods for PET estimation.

Applicability and improvement of different potential evapotranspiration models in different climate zones of China

BackgroundAccurate estimation of potential evapotranspiration (PET) is the key for studying land-air interaction hydrological processes. Several models are used to estimate the PET based on standardized meteorological data. Although combination-based models have the highest level performance estimation of PET, they require more meteorological data and may therefore be difficult to apply in areas lacking meteorological observation data.ResultsThe results showed significant differences in the spatial trends of PET calculated by different models in China, the Doorenbots–Pruitts model revealed the highest PET (1902.6 mm), and the Kuzmin model revealed the lowest PET (349.6 mm), with the largest difference being 5.5 times. The Romanenko and the Rohwer models were the recommended temperature-based and aerodynamic-based models. On the other hand, the Abtew model was more suitable for arid and semi-arid regions, while the Priestley–Taylor model was more suitable for humid regions. Combination-based models revealed ideal calculation accuracies, among which the Penman–Monteith model was the best option for PET calculation.ConclusionsThe accuracy range of Romanenko, Rohwer, Abten, Priestley Taylor, and Penman Monteith models improved in MPZ and TCZ is higher than that improved in TMZ and SMZ. This does not mean that the improved models have higher accuracy in MPZ and TCZ than in TMZ and SMZ. On the contrary, the original model performed poorly in MPZ and TCZ, so the improved accuracy was relatively large. The unimproved model was already more suitable in TMZ and SMZ, so the improved accuracy was relatively small. Therefore, regional calibration of the PET models can improve the accuracy and applicability of PET calculation, providing a reference for studying hydrological processes in different climatic zones.

Estimations of potential evapotranspiration from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble over Africa

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) plays a pivotal role in resource management and drought assessment. However, future PET estimates remain underexplored in the African region. This study employs twenty General Circulation Models (GCMs) to estimate past (1979–2014) and future PET changes across near-term (2021–2040), mid-term (2061–2080), and long-term (2081–2100) periods, considering four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) including SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5. The research assesses the impact of various climatic factors on PET across Africa and its sub-regions using the Penman-Monteith model. The analysis reveals that Penman-Monteith estimates for PET during 1979–2014 exhibit an increase of 0.68 mm per year (mm/a) across Africa. Notably, the Northern region (NAF), Sahara (SAH), Southern region (SAF), and Eastern region (EAF) experience higher PET changes of 1.78 mm/a, 1.75 mm/a, 1.09 mm/a, and 0.12 mm/a, respectively. Conversely, the Western region (WAF) and Central region (CAF) exhibit negative trends of −0.03 mm/a, and − 0.28 mm/a. Future PET in whole Africa is projected to increase by 0.05 mm/a in SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5, and 0.07 mm/a in higher emissions for 2021–2040, by 0.02 mm/an under SSP1–2.6, 0.07 in SSP2–4.5, 0.09 mm/a, and 0.16 mm/a, in SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 for 2061–2080, and by −0.01 mm/a in SSP1–2.6, 0.05 mm/a SSP2–4.5, 0.10 mm/a SSP3–7.0, and 0.18 mm/a SSP5–8.5 for 2081–2100. Furthermore, higher emissions are anticipated to drive PET increases in various regions during 2081–2100, with NAF, SAH, and SAF projected to rise by 0.17 mm/a, 0.16 mm/a, and 0.23 mm/a, respectively. WAF, CAF, and EAF are expected to experience increases of 0.20 mm/a, 0.19 mm/a, and 0.15 mm/a, respectively. Contribution analysis indicates that solar radiation played a major factor in PET over Africa as well as in WAF, CAF, and EAF. Maximum temperatures were pivotal in NAF, SAH, and SAF. In future periods (2021-2040, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100), maximum temperatures take precedence to Africa's PET, and at varying percentages to different sub-regions. The findings underscore the significance of PET estimation, particularly in the context of drought evaluation locally and regionally.

Evaluation of ERA5, ERA5-Land, GLDAS-2.1, and GLEAM potential evapotranspiration data over mainland China

Study regionChina. Study focusAccurate estimation of potential evapotranspiration (PET) is essential for understanding climate change. Using ground-based pan evaporation measurements over continental China, the monthly scale PET data during 2000–2017 of ERA5, ERA5-Land, GLDAS-2.1/Noah, and GLEAM V3.8a are evaluated, from the perspectives of their consistency in spatiotemporal variation, and performance measures. Factors controlling the data quality of the four datasets are investigated from the perspective of their PET calculation models and meteorologically input data. New hydrological insights for the regionPETERA5 performs the best in mainland China among four gridded PET datasets with higher correlation coefficients (r) and smaller biases, which can well capture the temporal variation of Epan. The outstanding performance of PETERA5 in China mainly results from the utilization of the Penman-Monteith (P-M) equation which performs the best among several competing formulas for PET computation, as well as its better meteorological inputs for computing PET than other datasets. Although the PETERA5-Land is a replay of the land component of the ERA5 climate reanalysis, it exhibits substantial overestimation of PET values and temporal trends, particularly in coastal areas of Southern China and the eastern side of Northeastern China, mainly caused by the overestimation of its net radiation. The PETGLDAS shows significant overestimation, partly due to its overestimation of wind speed, but mostly due to its modified P-M equation with its parameterization of land surface conditions for computing PETGLDAS. The PETGLEAM underestimated PET generally mainly due to the joint effect of the use of the Priestley-Taylor equation with small P-T parameter α, and the underestimation of the net radiation input from ERA-Interim, especially in Northwest and Qinghai Tibet.

Evaluation and bias correction of CRU TS4.05 potential evapotranspiration across vast environments with limited data

Long-term and reliable gridded estimates of potential evapotranspiration (PET) are often dearth. Being the longest available dataset with no validation, this work makes an effort to answer two questions: First, how well does the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) Version 4.05 PET (CRU-PET) dataset capture FAO Penman-Monteith grass reference evapotranspiration (ETo) across a range of environments and, second, can a simple adjustment approach be devised to curb the error, if any? The CRU-PET dataset is evaluated against ETo in two data-scarce countries, namely Sudan and South Sudan. Monthly station data measured at 12 stations spread over hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid zones are used. It is shown generally that CRU-PET tends to perform better in dry than wet conditions, and in arid than in humid locations. In this regard, CRU-PET has a tendency to overestimate (underestimate) the stations' values in the arid (humid) zone, with best performance characteristics achieved north of latitude 15° N. Rainfall plays a key role in determining the bias and has a non-linear effect. This bias is, however, unclear in rainless months when both augmented overestimates and underestimates are observed. Incorporating geographical coordinates (latitude, longitude and altitude) as co-variables with monthly rainfall in a multiple linear regression explained 40.7% of the variations in the bias. In this data-scarce study area (>2.5 million km2), this simple adjustment significantly improves the stations' CRU-PET as indicated by eight performance metrics. Furthermore, validation analysis showed a reduction of the overall mean bias error based on the 12 stations from −0.255 to 0.086 mm/day. To apply this correction method on a spatial domain, gridded precipitation data are needed. We used the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC 8) dataset, with which 41.9% of the CRU-PET bias is explained. In conclusion, this study cautions the use of CRU-PET dataset without prior evaluation in areas with similar geographical boundaries, climatic conditions and limited availability of data.

Bias-corrected NASA data for aridity index estimation over tropical climates in Ghana, West Africa

Study regionGhana, West Africa. Study focusNASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (NASA POWER) satellite-based reanalysis products are used for estimating the aridity index (AI) in Ghana, West Africa. The NASA estimates are compared and bias-corrected with temperature-based potential evapotranspiration estimates and rainfall data from 22 synoptic climate stations. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) matching technique was used for bias correction New Hydrological Insights for the regionThe results indicated a previous 36% over-estimation of arid conditions in dryland climates and an under-estimation of wetland climate regions by the NASA POWER data compared with the station-based estimation. Post bias-correction, the satellite-based estimates showed substantial improvements, as evidenced by a correlation coefficient of R2 = 0.87. The rectified data suggests that with accurate interpretations and calibrations, satellite-based metrics can play a pivotal role in advancing hydrological studies and water resource management in West Africa Sub-region. This insight underscores the potential of satellite data in augmenting regional hydrological research, establishing a foundation for similar studies in analogous global environments.

Improving the quantification of climate change hazards by hydrological models: a simple ensemble approach for considering the uncertain effect of vegetation response to climate change on potential evapotranspiration

Abstract. Almost no hydrological model takes into account that changes in evapotranspiration are affected by how vegetation responds to changing CO2 and climate. This severely limits their ability to quantify the impact of climate change on evapotranspiration and, thus, water resources. As the simulation of vegetation responses is both complex and very uncertain, we recommend a simple approach to considering (in climate change impact studies with hydrological models) the uncertainty that the vegetation response causes with respect to the estimation of future potential evapotranspiration (PET). To quantify this uncertainty in a simple manner, we propose running the hydrological model in two variants: with its standard PET approach and with a modified approach to compute PET. In the case of PET equations containing stomatal conductance, the modified approach can be implemented by adjusting the conductance. We introduce a modified approach for hydrological models that computes PET as a function of net radiation and temperature only, i.e., with the Priestley–Taylor (PT) equation. The new PT-MA approach is based on the work of Milly and Dunne (2016) (MD), who compared the change in non-water-stressed actual evapotranspiration (NWSAET) as computed by an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs), which simulate vegetation response as well as interactions between the atmosphere and the land surface, with various methods to compute PET change. Based on this comparison, MD proposed estimating the impact of climate change on PET as a function of only the change in net energy input at the land surface. PT-MA retains the impact of temperature on daily to interannual as well as spatial PET variations but removes the impact of the long-term temperature trend on PET such that long-term changes in future PET are driven by changes in net radiation only. We implemented PT-MA in the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2d and computed daily time series of PET between 1901 and 2099 using the bias-adjusted output of four GCMs. Increases in GCM-derived NWSAET between the end of the 20th and the end of the 21st century for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) are simulated well by WaterGAP if PT-MA is applied but are severely overestimated with the standard PT method. Application of PT-MA in WaterGAP results in smaller future decreases or larger future increases in renewable water resources (expressed as the variable RWR) compared with the standard PT method, except in a small number of grid cells where increased inflow from upstream areas due to increased upstream runoff leads to enhanced evapotranspiration from surface water bodies or irrigated fields. On about 20 % of the global land area, PT-MA leads to an increase in RWR that is more than 20 % higher than in the case of standard PT, while on more than 10 % of the global land area, the projected RWR decrease is reduced by more than 20 %. While the modified approach to compute PET is likely to avoid the overestimation of future drying in many if not most regions, the vegetation response in other regions may be such that the application of the standard PET leads to more likely changes in PET. As these regions cannot be identified with certainty, the proposed ensemble approach with two hydrological model variants serves to represent the uncertainty in hydrological changes due to the vegetation response to climate change that is not represented in the model.

Meteorological and hydrological drought analysis of Sinop, Kastamonu, Bartın provinces in the Western Black Sea

In recent years, a significant change has been observed in the climate characteristics of Turkey. These changes, which are compatible with the general trend of global climate change, are also felt in the Western Black Sea Basin. This paper reported on the calculation of drought indices, with emphasis on two recently developed indices, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and the Stream flow Drought Index (SDI) using specialized software package, named Drin C (Drought Indices Calculator). Additionally, Drin C includes a module for the estimation of potential evapo transpiration (PET) through temperature-based methods (Hargreaves, Blaney - Criddle, and Thornthwaite) that can be used for the calculation of RDI. Therefore, in this study carried out in the Western Black Sea region, meteorological drought analyzes for1-, 3-, 6- ve 12 months were made for 3 precipitation observation stations in the provinces of Sinop, Kastamonu, Bartın, and monthly total precipitation and monthly average temperature data were used to determine the meteorological drought.

Development of global monthly dataset of CMIP6 climate variables for estimating evapotranspiration

Reliable projection of evapotranspiration (ET) is important for planning sustainable water management for the agriculture field in the context of climate change. A global dataset of monthly climate variables was generated to estimate potential ET (PET) using 14 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for four main shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The generated dataset has a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and a period ranging from 1950 to 2100 and can estimate historical and future PET using the Penman-Monteith method. Furthermore, this dataset can be applied to various PET estimation methods based on climate variables. This paper presents that the dataset generated to estimate future PET could reflect the greenhouse gas concentration level of the SSP scenarios in latitude bands. Therefore, this dataset can provide vital information for users to select appropriate GCMs for estimating reasonable PETs and help determine bias correction methods to reduce between observation and model based on the scale of climate variables in each GCM.

A Thorough Evaluation of 127 Potential Evapotranspiration Models in Two Mediterranean Urban Green Sites

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a particularly important parameter for understanding water interactions and balance in ecosystems, while it is also crucial for assessing vegetation water requirements. The accurate estimation of PET is typically data demanding, while specific climatic, geographical and local factors may further complicate this task. Especially in city environments, where built-up structures may highly influence the micrometeorological conditions and urban green sites may occupy limited spaces, the selection of proper PET estimation approaches is critical, considering also data availability issues. In this study, a wide variety of empirical PET methods were evaluated against the FAO56 Penman–Monteith benchmark method in the environment of two Mediterranean urban green sites in Greece, aiming to investigate their accuracy and suitability under specific local conditions. The methods under evaluation cover all the range of empirical PET estimations: namely, mass transfer-based, temperature-based, radiation-based, and combination approaches, including 112 methods. Furthermore, 15 locally calibrated and adjusted models have been developed based on the general forms of the mass transfer, temperature, and radiation equations, improving the performance of the original models for local application. Among the 127 (112 original and 15 adjusted) evaluated methods, the radiation-based methods and adjusted models performed overall better than the temperature-based and the mass transfer methods, whereas the data-demanding combination methods received the highest ranking scores. The adjusted models seem to give accurate PET estimates for local use, while they might be applied in sites with similar conditions after proper validation.

Estimating daily potential evapotranspiration using GNSS-based precipitable water vapor

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a crucial component of the hydrological cycle and energy balance. Although the Penman-Monteith (PM) model is the most widely used method to estimate daily PET, it requires temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed. In Thailand, the number of potential weather stations to provide the required data is limited, which resulted in the absence of some input variables in many locations. The objective of this study is to develop the revised potential evapotranspiration (RPET) model to estimate daily PET using Global Navigation Satellite System-derived Precipitable Water Vapor (GNSS-PWV) and temperature data. The multiple linear regression analysis was used to develop and validate the RPET model. The performance of the RPET model along with the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM v3.2 b) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-5 (ERA5-Land) products was investigated using the PM model. The results revealed that the RPET model showed a strong correlation with the PM model (r = 0.85, RMSE = 0.97 mm day−1, RSR = 0.53, NSE = 0.72) under limited meteorological inputs. The RPET model performance was superior when compared to GLEAM and ERA5-Land (r = 0.80, RMSE = 1.06 mm day−1). Therefore, the proposed model is greatly suitable for daily PET estimation with only required GNSS-PWV and temperature data, and this can be implemented for drought assessment and water resources management.