Magnitude Of Eruptions Research Articles

Satellite measurement of forest disturbance, recovery and deposit distribution following explosive volcanic eruptions

The characteristics and extent of forest damage, and the subsequent patterns of recovery, reflect the intensity of an explosive volcanic eruption and have the potential to be a novel proxy for eruption magnitude and impact. Using satellite measurements of vegetation damage and recovery patterns, following the 2015 explosive eruption of Calbuco, Chile, we assess the impact on surrounding temperate forests and how areas impacted by different deposit types recover post-eruption. The Calbuco eruption resulted in tephra deposition over hundreds of square kilometres, pyroclastic flows extending 6 km and lahars extending 15 km. We explore NDVI derived from optical imagery (June 2013–May 2023) as well as radar backscatter and phase coherence (October 2014–June 2023) through time series analysis, clustering and estimation of recovery timescales to find patterns in forest disturbance and recovery. We find that forest damage and recovery correspond primarily with deposit type, thickness and dispersal directions. The thickest tephra deposits (> 40 cm) correlate with the most vegetation loss, so our vegetation impact maps allow us to refine the spatial mapping of tephra fall-deposit isopachs to give a revised eruption volume of 0.28 km3. Vegetation recovery rates relate to initial impact type and intensity, but also local topography, aspect and altitude. Our results demonstrate a novel application of optical and radar satellite remote sensing to determine eruption extents and magnitudes through vegetation disturbance. We show that measuring vegetation disturbance, particularly in remote and densely vegetated environments, can help refine field-based analyses in inaccessible or intensely damaged zones.

КАЛЬДЕРА КРАШЕНИННИКОВА (ВОСТОЧНАЯ КАМЧАТКА): ВОЗРАСТ И МАГНИТУДА ИЗВЕРЖЕНИЯ

New data on the composition of the pyroclastic deposits of the Krasheninnikov caldera allowed us to correlate it to the previously studied tephra horizon Geys30, which until recently was erroneously attributed to an eruption within the Geysernaya caldera. Pyroclastic flow deposits from the eruption that led to the formation of the Krasheninnikov caldera were found on the southern shore of Kronotsky Lake, and its distal tephra was found in the sediments of the Central Kamchatka Depression (CKD) at a distance of up to 200 km from the source (from Milkovo to Kliuchi villages). The age of this tephra was previously estimated at ~30 ka, which now allows us to accept this estimate for the Krasheninnikov caldera. The identification of the tephra of the caldera-forming eruption in distal sections allows a minimum estimate of the erupted pyroclastic volume of ~13 km3 and the eruption magnitude of 6.1.

Probabilistic hazard analyses for a small island: methods for quantifying tephra fall hazard and appraising possible impacts on Ascension Island

Proximal to the source, tephra fall can cause severe disruption, and populations of small volcanically active islands can be particularly susceptible. Volcanic hazard assessments draw on data from past events generated from historical observations and the geological record. However, on small volcanic islands, many eruptive deposits are under-represented or missing due to the bulk of tephra being deposited offshore and high erosion rates from weather and landslides. Ascension Island is such an island located in the South Atlantic, with geological evidence of mafic and felsic explosive volcanism. Limited tephra preservation makes it difficult to correlate explosive eruption deposits and constrains the frequency or magnitude of past eruptions. We therefore combined knowledge from the geological record together with eruptions from the analogous São Miguel island, Azores, to probabilistically model a range of possible future explosive eruption scenarios. We simulated felsic events from a single vent in the east of the island, and, as mafic volcanism has largely occurred from monogenetic vents, we accounted for uncertainty in future vent location by using a grid of equally probable source locations within the areas of most recent eruptive activity. We investigated the hazards and some potential impacts of short-lived explosive events where tephra fall deposits could cause significant damage and our results provide probabilities of tephra fall loads from modelled events exceeding threshold values for potential damage. For basaltic events with 6–10 km plume heights, we found a 50% probability that tephra fallout across the west side of the island would impact roads and the airport during a single explosive event, and if roofs cannot be cleared, three modelled explosive phases produced tephra loads that may be sufficient to cause roof collapse (≥ 100 kg m−2). For trachytic events, our results show a 50% probability of loads of 2–12 kg m−2 for a plume height of 6 km increasing to 898–3167 kg m−2 for a plume height of 19 km. Our results can assist in raising awareness of the potential impacts of tephra fall from short-lived explosive events on small islands.

Dwindling Effective Radiative Forcing of Large Volcanic Eruption: The Compensation Role of Ocean Latent Heat Flux

AbstractClimatic impacts of historical volcanism are principally tied to the eruption size, while observation versus model discrepancies have been commonly attributed to the uncertainties in paleo‐reconstruction or malpresentation of volcanic aerosols in models. Here we present convergent evidence for significant compensation effect of ocean latent heat (LH) in balancing the tropical volcanic‐induced heat loss, by introducing an effective perturbation ratio which is found to decrease with increasing eruption magnitude. Four LH compensation hot spots overlapping with the trade wind regions are identified, together with three western boundary currents regions with intensified LH loss. Comparison between the 1258 Samalas and 1452 Unidentified eruptions suggests considerable modulation of the concurring El Nino‐Southern Oscillation on LH anomaly, which is further verified by CESM large ensemble sensitivity experiments. This study depicts how the interplay between the ocean and the atmosphere could contribute to the overall resilience of the climate system in the face of volcanic disturbances.

The effect of occlusal loading on secondary tooth eruption: An experimental study using a rat model.

This study aimed to assess the impact of occlusal loading on secondary tooth eruption and to determine the extent to which altering the occlusal loading influences the magnitude of secondary eruption through an experimental rat model. The present sample consisted of 48 male Wistar rats. At the onset of the experiment, 24 rats were 4 weeks old (young rats) and 24 rats were 26 weeks old (adult). Within each age group, the rats were further divided into two equal subgroups (12 rats each), receiving either a soft- or hard-food diet for the 3-month duration of the experiment. The primary outcome was the tooth position changes relative to stable references in the coronal plane by evaluating the distance between the mandibular first molars and the inferior alveolar canal. Microcomputed tomography scans were taken from all rats at three standardized intervals over the 3-month study period. Descriptive statistics were calculated by age and diet over time, and the evolution of the outcomes were plotted by age and diet over time. Longitudinal data analysis via generalized estimating equations was performed to examine the effect of age, diet and time on the primary outcomes. Secondary tooth eruption was observed in all age groups (young and adult) regardless of diet consistency (soft or hard food). In young rats, the secondary eruption was greater in the animals fed a soft diet than those fed a hard diet. In adult rats, minimal difference in secondary tooth eruption were found between different diet consistencies. Occlusal loading influences secondary tooth eruption in teeth with an established occlusal contact. The quantity of eruption in growing rats is higher when occlusal loading is less, providing a certain amount of secondary tooth eruption occurs. This difference, however, is not evident in adult rats, at least during the given 3-month time frame.

Continental flood basalts sample oxidized mantle sources

Large igneous provinces (LIP) are vast (0.2 to >1 Mkm3) outpourings of basaltic lava and voluminous intrusions of magmas that have had important environmental consequences, in many cases leading to immense greenhouse gas release and mass extinctions. Magmatic oxygen fugacity (fO2) influences the chemistry of volcanic gases and is an important parameter for examining the links between LIP eruptions and environmental change. To constrain the fO2 of LIP magmas, we report olivine elemental chemistry of 399 crystals from a set of fifteen olivine-rich LIP samples, spanning in age from the Proterozoic (∼1270 Ma) to the Miocene (∼17 Ma). Concentrations of V in olivine are used to show that mafic LIP lavas erupted at +1.20 ± 0.95 ΔFMQ, on average more oxidized than mid ocean ridge basalts (MORB) at −0.28 ± 0.28 ΔFMQ. Mafic LIP magmas show a much larger range than MORB, however. Additionally, fO2 shows a negative correlation with parental magma MgO content, with high MgO lavas approaching the MORB range. This correlation is likely due to sampling of a heterogeneous mixture of oxidized and reduced lithologies, as also sampled by ocean island basalts (OIB). Correlation between fO2 and isotopic ratios such as 143Nd/144Nd demonstrates that the oxidized endmember is geochemically enriched, and may result from subduction recycling of oxidized surficial materials. The high fO2 of primitive LIP magmas demonstrate that they largely emitted oxidized gases during eruption, and furthermore, that LIP magmas associated with mass extinctions have similar magmatic fO2 to those that are not. Global plate tectonic position, magnitude and duration of LIP volcanic eruptions and magmatic degassing, as well as interaction with sedimentary basins in the crust - but not mantle source fO2 - are likely to be the critical factors for whether a LIP was associated with a mass extinction.

Source reservoir controls on the size, frequency, and composition of large-scale volcanic eruptions.

Large-scale, explosive volcanic eruptions are one of the Earth's most hazardous natural phenomena. We demonstrate that their size, frequency, and composition can be explained by processes in long-lived, high-crystallinity source reservoirs that control the episodic creation of large volumes of eruptible silicic magma and its delivery to the subvolcanic chamber where it is stored before eruption. Melt percolates upward through the reservoir and accumulates a large volume of low-crystallinity silicic magma which remains trapped until buoyancy causes magma-driven fractures to propagate into the overlying crust, allowing rapid magma transfer from the reservoir into the chamber. Ongoing melt percolation in the reservoir accumulates a new magma layer and the process repeats. Our results suggest that buoyancy, rather than crystallinity, is the key control on magma delivery from the source reservoir. They identify an optimum reservoir size for the largest silicic eruptions that is consistent with data from natural systems and explain why larger magnitude eruptions are not observed on Earth.

Simultaneous normal and reverse faulting in reactivating caldera faults: A detailed field structural analysis from Campi Flegrei (southern Italy)

Models of volcanic collapses proposed in the literature rely on combining field examples with analogue and numerical modelling to connect superficial observables to sub-surface volcano-tectonic processes. However, the behaviour of such collapses in an already faulted and fractured medium needs to be better explored.We studied a complex array of normal and reverse faults within the central sector of the active Campi Flegrei caldera, where faults with centimeters-to-meters displacements are hosted in the La Pietra tuff (∼13.5 ka) and the overlying pyroclastic succession of the last ∼5.5 kyr. We analyzed the attitude, kinematics and throw of these structures, employing a UAV-based digital outcrop model. The analysis shows that antithetic normal and reverse faults form in the hanging wall of a pre-existing WNW striking, NNE-dipping master normal fault. Moving northward, the strike of the antithetic faults rotates from WNW to NNW directions, with the latter showing a right-lateral oblique component. The simultaneity and coherence of both kinematics and attitudes are verified by the throw analysis. We associated the formation of this array with the caldera-collapse phase of the Agnano-Monte Spina eruption (∼4.55 ka), which caused off-caldera faulting beyond the main collapsed area.Based on field data, we suggest that during peak caldera-forming phases, wider areas beyond the main caldera scarps can be involved in volcano-tectonic collapses in the presence of a pre-existing fault network and complex tapped reservoirs. This highlights the role of inherited structures in weakening the crust above the magma reservoir that can potentially increase the magnitude and duration of caldera-forming eruptions, as they may induce a broader roof rock subsidence, pressurizing wider regions of the sub-caldera magma system.

Constraining the volatile evolution of mafic melts at Mt. Somma–Vesuvius, Italy, based on the composition of reheated melt inclusions and their olivine hosts

Abstract. Mount Somma–Vesuvius is a stratovolcano that represents a geological hazard to the population of the city of Naples and surrounding towns in southern Italy. Historically, volcanic eruptions at Mt. Somma–Vesuvius (SV) include high-magnitude Plinian eruptions, such as the infamous 79 CE eruption that occurred after 295 years of quiescence and killed thousands of people in Pompeii and surrounding towns and villages. The last eruption at SV was in 1944 and showed a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 3 (0.01 km3 of volcanic material erupted). Following the 1944 eruption, SV has been dormant for the past nearly 79 years, with only minor fumarolic and seismic activity. During its long history, centuries of dormancy at SV have ended with Plinian eruptions (VEI 6) that signal the beginning of a new cycle of eruptive activity. Thus, the current dormancy stage demands a need to better understand the mechanism involved in high-magnitude eruptions in order to better predict future eruption magnitude and style. Despite centuries of research on the SV volcanic system, many questions remain, including the evolution of magmatic volatiles from deep primitive magmas to shallower more evolved magmas. Developing a better understanding of the physical and chemical processes associated with volatile evolution at SV can provide insights into magma dynamics and the mechanisms that trigger highly explosive eruptions at SV. In this study, we present new data for the pre-eruptive volatile contents of magmas associated with four Plinian and two inter-Plinian eruptions at SV based on analyses of reheated melt inclusions (MIs) hosted in olivine. We correct the volatile contents of bubble-bearing MIs by taking into account the volatile contents of bubbles in the MIs. We recognize two groups of MIs: one group hosted in high-Fo olivine (Fo85–90) and relatively rich in volatiles and the other group hosted in low-Fo olivine (Fo70–69) and relatively depleted in volatiles. The correlation between volatile contents and compositions of host olivines suggests that magma fractionation took place under volatile-saturated conditions and that more differentiated magmas reside at shallower levels relative to less evolved/quasi-primitive magmas. Using the CO2 contents of corrected MIs hosted in Fo90 olivine from SV, we estimate that 347 to 686 t d−1 of magmatic CO2 exsolved from SV magmas during the last 3 centuries (38–75 Mt in total) of volcanic activity. Although this study is limited to only few SV magmas, we suggest that further study applying similar methods could shed light on the apparent lack of correlation between the volatile contents of MIs and the style and age of eruptions. Further, such studies could provide additional constraints on the origin of CO2 and the interaction between the carbonate platform and ascending magmas below SV.

Reassessment of the sulfur and halogen emissions from the Millennium Eruption of Changbaishan (Paektu) volcano

The 946 CE ‘Millennium Eruption’ of Changbaishan (aka Paektu) volcano ranks among the largest volcanic events of the Common Era. Its fallout represents a widespread precisely-dated marker horizon yet little is known of its environmental impacts. Here, we revisit petrologic constraints on the pre-eruptive conditions of the dominant rhyolitic magma in order to estimate the eruption's volatile budget. We show that silicic reservoirs may lose more than half of their volatile complements prior to eruption and estimate that the Millennium Eruption emitted just 2–7 Tg of sulfur and 5–10 Tg of chlorine to the atmosphere, depending on the accepted eruption magnitude. These values are lower than previous petrologic estimates but consistent with ice core glaciochemistry and tree-ring-based climate reconstructions. We further suggest that any reawakening of Changbaishan / Paektu should be heralded by enhanced CO2 emissions if driven by basalt intrusion, or by H2-H2O-rich and halogen-poor gases if resulting from evolution of a silicic reservoir. Our findings emphasise the importance of robust assessments of pre-eruptive conditions, especially in respect of temperature, when applying petrologic arguments to evaluate outgassing from silicic volcanism.

Eruptive dynamics reflect crustal structure and mantle productivity beneath volcanoes

Abstract Volcanoes exhibit a wide range of eruptive and geochemical behavior, which has significant implications for their associated risk. The suggested first-order drivers of intervolcanic diversity invoke a combination of crustal and mantle processes. To better constrain mantle-crustal-volcanic coupling, we used the well-studied Lesser Antilles island arc. Here, we show that melt flux from the mantle, identified by proxy in the form of boron isotopes in melt inclusions, correlates with the long-term volcanic productivity, the volcanic edifice height, and the geophysically defined along-arc crustal structure. These features are the consequence of a variable melt flux modulating the pressure-temperature-composition structure of the crust, which we inverted from xenolith mineral chemistry. Mafic to intermediate melts reside at relatively constant temperature (981 ± 52 °C; 2σ) in the middle crust (3.5–7.1 kbar), whereas chemically evolved (rhyolitic) melts are stored predominantly in the upper crust (<3.5 kbar) at maximum depths that vary geophysically along the arc (6–15 km). Our findings are applicable worldwide, where we see similar correlations among average magma geochemistry, eruptive magnitude, and rate of magma input.

Thermal structure beneath Changbaishan Volcano, northeastern Asia: new insights from temperature logging and numerical modelling

SUMMARY Changbaishan Volcano is considered one of the most hazardous active volcanic fields in northeastern Asia, and it has been the subject of increasing concern due to its unrest from 2002 to 2006. The physical conditions of magma chambers in the crust, particularly temperature and pressure, are crucial factors that determine the tempo and magnitude of volcanic eruptions, which are closely linked to potential hazards. However, the lithospheric thermal structure, which strongly influences rheological behaviour and melting, has been poorly studied. We conducted direct geothermal measurements and numerical forward modelling to address this issue to confirm whether a crustal magma chamber lies beneath the caldera as in earlier geophysical interpretations. We first reported four heat-flow data sets in Changbaishan Volcano. The research findings indicate that the heat flow value near the Tianchi caldera is remarkably high, at 270±16 mW m−2. As the distance from the caldera increases, the heat flow gradually decreases to a normal continental heat flow value of 75 mW m−2. 3-D transient heat simulations with a magma cooling model and a continuous magma supply model demonstrate the thermal effect of the magma chamber. The best-fitting model for the Tianchi magma system is an ellipsoidal magma chamber with a depth of 8–14 km, a 20 km east–west axis and a 70 km north–south axis, supplied with magma from the asthenosphere for 2 Myr. The high surface heat flow and crustal temperatures suggest that magma is active beneath Changbaishan Volcano within the middle-upper crust, and volcanic reactivation could occur. Thus, further research on the lithospheric thermal structure is necessary to understand the potential volcanic hazards associated with Changbaishan Volcano.

Orbital period changes for 14 novae and the critical failures of the predictions of standard theories, the Hibernation Model, and the Magnetic Braking Model

ABSTRACT The evolution of novae and cataclysmic variables (CVs) is driven by changes in the binary orbital periods. In a direct and critical test for various evolution models and their physical mechanisms, I measure the sudden changes in the period (ΔP) across 14 nova eruptions, and I measure the steady period change during quiescence (Ṗ) for 20 inter-eruption intervals. The standard theory for ΔP is dominated by the mechanism of mass loss, and this fails completely for the five novae with negative values, and it fails to permit the ΔP for U Sco eruptions to change by one order of magnitude eruption to eruption. The Hibernation Model of evolution is refuted because all the ΔP measures are orders of magnitude too small to cause any significant drop in accretion luminosity, and indeed, near half of the nova have negative ΔP as the opposite of the required mechanism for any hibernation state. As for the Magnetic Braking Model, this fails by many orders of magnitude in its predictions of the required Ṗ for 9 out of 13 novae. The observed Ṗ values scatter, both positively and negatively, over a range of ±10−9, while the predicted values are from −10−13 to −10−11. This huge scatter is not possible with standard theory, and there must be some currently unknown mechanism to be added in, with this new mechanism 100–10 000× larger in effect than the current theory allows. In all, these failed predictions demonstrate that nova systems must have unknown physical mechanisms for both ΔP and Ṗ that dominate over all other effects.

Climate Projections Very Likely Underestimate Future Volcanic Forcing and Its Climatic Effects

AbstractStandard climate projections represent future volcanic eruptions by a constant forcing inferred from 1850 to 2014 volcanic forcing. Using the latest ice‐core and satellite records to design stochastic eruption scenarios, we show that there is a 95% probability that explosive eruptions could emit more sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere over 2015–2100 than current standard climate projections (i.e., ScenarioMIP). Our simulations using the UK Earth System Model with interactive stratospheric aerosols show that for a median future eruption scenario, the 2015–2100 average global‐mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) is double that used in ScenarioMIP, with small‐magnitude eruptions (<3 Tg of SO2) contributing 50% to SAOD perturbations. We show that volcanic effects on large‐scale climate indicators, including global surface temperature, sea level and sea ice extent, are underestimated in ScenarioMIP because current climate projections do not fully account for the recurrent frequency of volcanic eruptions of different magnitudes.

Explosive eruptions at Stromboli volcano (Italy): a comprehensive geochemical view on magma sources and intensity range

A comprehensive understanding of the processes that occur during magmatic storage and pre-eruptive ascent—and of their associated timescales—is critical to identifying potential precursory signals, and to developing robust volcano early-warning systems. Stromboli’s persistent activity comprises continuous degassing and explosive activity that ranges from hourly, low-intensity “normal” activity to occasional, more violent, paroxysmal activity. While the magma source processes that drive normal and paroxysmal activity are reasonably constrained, eruptive activity intermediate in magnitude and intensity (i.e., major explosions) remains elusive in terms of classification, source region, and pre-eruptive timescales. Here, we investigate the 19 July 2020 major explosion that geophysical parameters place at the upper limit of the major explosions field, close to small-scale paroxysms such as the 2003 and 2007 events. The geochemical signatures of matrix glass, olivine, melt inclusions, and embayments—integrated with gas measurements—highlight important differences in eruption source, ascent behaviour, and pre-eruptive timescales of the studied event when compared to paroxysms. Melt inclusion volatile contents identify that magma rise begins from a slightly shallower source (~9.5 km below sea level, b.s.l.) than for paroxysms (11.4 km b.s.l.), with the activation of a shallower ponding zone at 5–6 km b.s.l.. This, in combination with intermediate matrix glass compositions, suggests complex ascent behaviour, characterised by CO2 buffering in the deep ponding region and magma self-mixing in the shallower zone. Fe–Mg-diffusion modelling in olivine indicates a system perturbation starting ~20–25 days before eruption onset, in agreement with the timescale of volcanic gas CO2/SO2 ratio changes observed in the plume, and significantly shorter than that observed prior to paroxysms (~4 months). The geochemical dataset provides insights into the processes controlling the steady-state conditions and the broad spectra in eruption magnitude and intensity at Stromboli and bears important implications for eruption forecasting.

Assessment of the Relationship Between Repose Period and Eruption Magnitude of Gamalama Volcano for Community Preparedness in Ternate Island – Indonesia

Assessment of the Relationship Between Repose Period and Eruption Magnitude of Gamalama Volcano for Community Preparedness in Ternate Island – Indonesia

A possible sea-level fall trigger for the youngest rejuvenated volcanism in Hawaiʻi

Many intraplate oceanic islands undergo “rejuvenated” volcanism following the main edifice-building stage. Honolulu features Hawaiʻi’s most recent rejuvenated volcanism. K-Ar dating of Honolulu volcanism suggests that it started at ca. 750 ka and ended at <100 ka. Here, we present new 40Ar/39Ar ages and olivine diffusion modeling from Koko Rift lavas to resolve when the most recent Honolulu eruptions occurred and to evaluate possible mechanisms of rejuvenated volcanism and volcanic hazards. Diffusion modeling of olivine zoning profiles in Koko Rift basalts suggests that magmas were stored in the crust for many months prior to eruption. Six new 40Ar/39Ar ages cluster at 67 ± 2 ka (2σ), which demonstrates that Koko Rift is Hawaiʻi’s youngest known area of rejuvenated volcanism. The timing of Koko Rift eruptions coincides with the pronounced drop in global sea level (∼100 m) during Marine Isotope Stage 4. This major sea-level fall may have triggered the eruptions of Koko Rift magmas that were stored in the crust for months to years at < 15 km depth. The proposed mechanism is similar to that at other volcanic islands, which suggests that changes in global sea level may have significant control on the magnitude and frequency of eruptions at ocean island volcanoes.

Effects of a Volcanic-Fluid Cycle System on Water Chemistry of a Deep Caldera Lake: Lake Tazawa, Akita Prefecture, Japan

Lake Tazawa, the deepest lake (423.4 m depth at maximum) in Japan underwent drastically changed water quality in 1940, because volcanic water from two active volcanos was then drawn into the lake for power generation and irrigation. Thereby, the pH of lake water decreased from 6.7 to 4.2, which exterminated a land-locked type of sockeye salmon, Oncorhynchus nerkakawamurae (locally called Kunimasu trout). Additionally, the mean residence time of lake water changed from 195 years to 8.9 years by rapidly increasing the outflow for power generation and irrigation. In this study, long-term chemical fluxes controlling lake water chemistry were obtained, and a groundwater water cycle system between the lake and the volcano was explored by estimating hydrological and chemical budgets of the lake. In the chemical budget estimate, two ionic species, SO42− and Cl−, in volcanic fluids were chosen and each mass conservation equation was yielded. The hydrological budget estimate gave us the net groundwater inflow at −1.36 m3/s on average over three periods in 2020–2021, and then the simultaneous equation coupled with the chemical budget equation allowed us to separate into groundwater inflow and outflow at 6.01 m3/s and 7.37 m3/s, averaged over the three periods, respectively. The evaluated groundwater inflow and outflow were compared with those of the other crater or caldera lakes. The linear relationship between the lake volume and the magnitude of groundwater inflow or outflow suggests that the groundwater cycle scale in such a lake increases with the magnitude of the volcanic eruption to have formed the lake.

Geochemical variability as an indicator for large magnitude eruptions in volcanic arcs

Caldera-forming eruptions have the potential to induce drastic socioeconomic change. However, the criteria to identify volcanoes capable of producing large magnitude eruptions in the future are not well constrained. Here we compile and analyse data, revealing that volcanoes which have produced catastrophic caldera-forming eruptions in the past, show larger ranges of erupted magma geochemistry compared to those that have not. This suggests geochemical variability is related to the size of magmatic systems. Using heat transfer simulations, we show that differences in magma flux result in a dependency between chemical diversity and magma volume that is consistent with these observations. We conclude that compositional spread should be included in the catalogue of criteria to identify volcanoes with greater probability of producing future large eruptions. Importantly, this allows to identify stratovolcanoes with caldera-like geochemical signatures, which have not yet been recognized as systems with greater likelihood of producing large magnitude eruptions.

Modelling the transport and deposition of ash following a magnitude 7 eruption: the distal Mazama tephra

Volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDMs) are necessary for forecasting tephra dispersal during volcanic eruptions and are a useful tool for estimating the eruption source parameters (ESPs) of prehistoric eruptions. Here we use Ash3D, an Eulerian VATDM, to simulate the tephra deposition from the ~ 7.7 ka climactic eruption of Mount Mazama. We investigate how best to apply a VATDM using the ESPs characteristic of a large magnitude eruption (M ≥ 7). We simplify the approach to focus on the distal deposit as if it were formed by a single phase of Plinian activity. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to use modern wind profiles to simulate the tephra dispersal from a prehistoric eruption; however, this introduces an inherent uncertainty to the subsequent simulations where we explore different ESPs. We show, using the well-documented distal Mazama tephra, that lateral umbrella cloud spreading, rather than advection–diffusion alone, must be included in the VATDM to reproduce the width of the isopachs. In addition, the Ash3D particle size distribution must be modified to simulate the transport and deposition of distal fine-grained (< 125 µm) Mazama ash. With these modifications, the Ash3D simulations reproduce the thickness and grain size of the Mazama tephra deposit. Based on our simulations, however, we conclude that the exact relationship between mass eruption rate and the scale of umbrella cloud spreading remains unresolved. Furthermore, for ground-based grain size distributions to be input directly into Ash3D, further research is required into the atmospheric and particle processes that control the settling behaviour of fine volcanic ash.