Estimation Error Research Articles

Soil temperature detection based on acoustic method and improved Wyllie model

Soil temperature is one of the important environmental factors for the underground parts of plants. It is important to detect soil temperature in agricultural production. Acoustic waves serve as effective carriers of soil information, providing a reliable means to detect soil physical properties. In order to detect the temperature of sandy loam soil based on acoustic technology, this study extends the application of Wyllie model to the temperature measurement of sandy loam soil. The relationship between soil temperature and acoustic velocity is explored. A model of soil moisture content-soil temperature-acoustic velocity (MTV) for temperature measurement in sandy loam soil is proposed by extending the temperature–velocity of sound relationship with the introduction of a variable empirical coefficient related to soil moisture β(θ). In order to determine the parameters of proposed model, a pulsed acoustic velocity detection system was built in this paper. The influence of temperature on the acoustic velocity in sandy loam soil was analyzed through experiments. Based on the experimental results, the key parameters of the MTV model are refined. Finally, a validation experiment was carried out on sandy loam soil. The maximum estimation error of soil temperature based on the MTV model for sandy loam soil temperature estimation is 8.55 %. The results indicate that the MTV model proposed in this study can be used for temperature estimation in sandy loam soil, providing a theoretical basis for the development of acoustic soil physical information detection sensors.

Combining Mendelian Randomization Analysis and 3D-QSAR to Investigate the Effectiveness of a New Series of Hydroxyquinolines in Osteoarthritis.

Osteoarthritis (OA) represents a persistent degenerative joint ailment. As OA advances, profound joint pain coupled with diminished joint function inflicts substantial physical distress and psychological strain on patients. Presently, pharmacological solutions for arthritis remain limited, primarily encompassing analgesics and joint replacement surgical procedures. Hence, non-operative strategies to mitigate osteoarthritis progression have captured significant attention in orthopedic research. This study aims to discern a definitive causal linkage between ADAMTS-4/5 and osteoarthritis through Mendelian randomization analysis. Moreover, it seeks to anticipate the therapeutic efficacy of a suite of emergent hydroxyquinolines for osteoarthritis using the Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) methodology. Within this study, genetic variants specific to knee osteoarthritis were procured as exposure variables from a genome-wide association study (GWAS). Genetic variant data for ADAMTS-4/5 served as the endpoint to evaluate the causal nexus employing univariate Mendelian randomization. This analysis underpins the hypothesis that ADAMTS-4/5 presents a promising therapeutic target for osteoarthritis management. The suppressive properties of novel hydroxyquinolines against ADAMTS-4/5 were subsequently examined through conformational analyses, underscoring the potential of these compounds as therapeutic candidates for osteoarthritis. IVW outcomes from the Mendelian randomization revealed a significant association of KOA (OR: 1.1675, 95% CI: 1.0003-1.3627, P = 0.0495) with ADAMTS-5. However, KOA (OR: 1.0801, 95% CI: 0.9256-1.2604, P = 0.3278) displayed no evident connection with ADAMTS-4. Notably, the instrumental variables manifested neither heterogeneity nor horizontal pleiotropy. In this research endeavor, 16 pharmacological models were formulated via the CoMSIA method within 3D conformational relationship evaluations. A synergistic interplay of hydrophobic, spatial, and hydrogen-bonded receptor domains emerged as the most predictively potent. The cross-validation coefficient q2 for the optimum model stood at 0.716, with a principal component score of 5, a regression coefficient r2 of 0.971, a standard estimation error of 0.351, and an f-value of 156.951. Such metrics intimate the commendable predictive prowess of our devised CoMSIA models. The research unearthed a robust causal interrelation between ADAMTS-5 and osteoarthritis via Mendelian randomization. Furthermore, a credible drug model targeting ADAMTS-5 was constructed. Collectively, these findings illuminate a path forward in the pursuit of target-specific drugs for osteoarthritis management in subsequent investigations.

Sensorless robot collision detection based on fuzzy momentum observer

During physical human–robot interaction, unwanted collisions occur, which also threaten human safety. That is why different collision detection algorithms are proposed for safe collaboration between human and robots. The current detection methods are model-based methods without using additional sensors. However, the estimation of the collision force using a model-based method still has the problem of an unavoidable trade-off between the collision sensitivity and the reduction of the peaking value, and, in addition, the immunity to the model uncertainties. In this paper, an improved momentum observer using fuzzy system is proposed for robot collision detection. First, to avoid using the robot’s inverse inertia matrix, the generalized moment state equations based on the robot’s dynamics are deduced. Second, the extended linear momentum observer is built based on robot generalized momentum equations. Third, a fuzzy system is designed to select an appropriate bandwidth for the observer. In the design of this fuzzy system, the estimation error is considered as a fuzzy input, and the observer’s bandwidth is considered as its output. This fuzzy generalized momentum observer (FGMO) is compared with the existing generalized moment observers (GMOs) and has been proven its ability to overcome the mentioned above issues due to its ability to intelligently adjust the online filter parameters during the observation process. Finally, simulations are conducted with a 6-degree-of-freedom (6-DOF) industrial robot manipulator, and the obtained results illustrate the effectiveness of proposed approach in term of sensitivity and peaking value.

Vision Measurement System for Gender-Based Counting of Acheta domesticus

The exploitation of insects as protein sources in the food industry has had a strong impact in recent decades for many reasons. The emphasis for this phenomenon has its primary basis on sustainability and also to the nutritional value provided. The gender of the insects, specifically Acheta domesticus, is strictly related to their nutritional value and therefore the availability of an automatic system capable of counting the number of Acheta in an insect farm based on their gender will have a strong impact on the sustainability of the farm itself. This paper presents a non-contact measurement system designed for gender counting and recognition in Acheta domesticus farms. A specific test bench was designed and realized to force the crickets to travel inside a transparent duct, across which they were framed by means of a high-resolution camera able to capture the ovipositor, the distinction element between male and female. All possible sources of uncertainty affecting the identification and counting of individuals were considered, and methods to mitigate their effect were described. The proposed method, which achieves 2.6 percent error in counting and 8.6 percent error in gender estimation, can be of significant impact in the sustainable food industry.

System error analysis and target localization of distributed pulse radars

AbstractTarget localization for distributed radars requires precise knowledge of the calibration errors in time, frequency, and space. Previous studies focus on the sensor location error and sensor directional error in space. This paper concentrates on the system errors in time and frequency which directly affect the targets estimation of range and velocity. Based on linear frequency modulation waveform, the impact of the system errors including sample interval, pulse repetition interval, and centre frequency are analysed. An alternating optimization algorithm is proposed to achieve the target localization, velocity estimation and system errors estimation simultaneously. Simulation shows the effectiveness of the algorithm and the influence on localization due to varying number of targets and radars.

A Networked Meta-Population Epidemic Model with Population Flow and Its Application to the Prediction of the COVID-19 Pandemic

This article addresses the crucial issues of how asymptomatic individuals and population movements influence the spread of epidemics. Specifically, a discrete-time networked Susceptible-Asymptomatic-Infected-Recovered (SAIR) model that integrates population flow is introduced to investigate the dynamics of epidemic transmission among individuals. In contrast to existing data-driven system identification approaches that identify the network structure or system parameters separately, a joint estimation framework is developed in this study. The joint framework incorporates historical measurements and enables the simultaneous estimation of transmission topology and epidemic factors. The use of the joint estimation scheme reduces the estimation error. The stability of equilibria and convergence behaviors of proposed dynamics are then analyzed. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the proposed model to population movements is evaluated in terms of the basic reproduction number. This article also rigorously investigates the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions via distributively controlling population flow in curbing virus transmission. It is found that the population flow control strategy reduces the number of infections during the epidemic.

Spatial Localization of Transformer Inspection Robot Based on Adaptive Denoising and SCOT-β Generalized Cross-Correlation

In the detection process of the internal defects of large oil-immersed transformers, due to the huge size of large transformers and metal-enclosed structures, the positional localization of miniature inspection robots inside the transformer faces great difficulties. To address this problem, this paper proposes a three-dimensional positional localization method based on adaptive denoising and the SCOT weighting function with the addition of the exponent β (SCOT-β) generalized cross-correlation for L-type ultrasonic arrays of transformer internal inspection robots. Aiming at the strong noise interference in the field, the original signal is decomposed by an improved Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method, and the optimal center frequency and bandwidth of each mode are adaptively searched. By extracting the modes in the frequency band of the positional localization signal, suppressing the modes in the noise frequency band, and reconstructing the Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) of the independently selected superior modal components, a signal with a high signal-to-noise ratio is obtained. In addition, for the traditional mutual correlation algorithm with a large delay estimation error at a low signal-to-noise ratio, this paper adopts an improved generalized joint weighting function, SCOT-β, which improves the anti-jamming ability of the generalized mutual correlation method at a low signal-to-noise ratio by adding an exponential function to the denominator term of the SCOT weighting function’s generalized cross-correlation. Finally, the accurate positional localization of the transformer internal inspection robot is realized based on the quadratic L-array and search-based maximum likelihood estimation method. Simulation and experimental results show the following: the improved EMD denoising method better improves the signal-to-noise ratio of the positional localization signal with a lower distortion rate; in the transformer test tank, which is 120 cm in length, 100 cm in width, and 100 cm in height, based on the positional localization method in this paper, the average relative positional localization error of the transformer internal inspection robot in three-dimensional space is 2.27%, and the maximum positional localization error is less than 2 cm, which meets the requirements of engineering positional localization.

How to better estimate bunch number at field level?

In viticulture, early-season estimation of average number of grape bunches per vine is crucial for vineyard planning, investments and marketing (Laurent et al., 2021). Although sampling is widely carried out to estimate grape bunches per vine, there is no clearly established sampling protocol that can be used as a reference when performing these estimations. Each practitioner therefore has their own sampling protocol. In this work, the effect of differences between sampling protocols in terms of estimation errors were investigated to give some recommendations on the best possible sampling practices.

Target decomposition-led light-weighted offline training strategy-aided data-driven state-of-charge online estimation during constant current charging conditions over battery entire lifespan

This paper develops a novel target decomposition-led light-weighted offline training strategy-aided data-driven state-of-charge (SOC) online estimation method during constant current (CC) charging conditions over battery entire lifespan. Firstly, real SOC is conceptually decomposed into base SOC and SOC error. Subsequently, taking voltage and real SOC of initial CC charging cycle as input and output, machine learning algorithm is adopted to offline establish base SOC acquisition model without considering battery aging. Thirdly, the errors between real SOC and acquired base SOC are calculated, where the extremely similar distribution of SOC error against different battery degradation with two aging-dependent peaks can be clearly observed. Following this precious characteristic, a SOC error calculation model is further built only via several typical CC charging cycles with base SOC and battery capacity as input. Finally, the acquired base SOC is compensated by the computed SOC error for real SOC calculation. The validation results demonstrate that the proposed target decomposition-led method has overwhelming advantages in light-weighted offline training and accurate SOC online estimation during CC charging conditions, where maximum mean absolute error and maximum root mean squared error of SOC estimation results over the same type of batteries’ entire lifespan are only 0.98 % and 1.2 %, respectively.

Developing normative values and predictive models for the 6-minute walk test across diverse adolescent developmental stages.

The six-minute walking test (6MWT) is commonly used to measure functional capacity in field settings, primarily through the distance covered. This study aims to establish reference curves for the six-minute walking distance (6MWD) and peak heart rate (PHR) and develop a predictive equation for cardiovascular capacity in Tunisian children and adolescents. A total of 1501 participants (706 boys and 795 girls), aged 10-18years, were recruited from schools in Tunisia. The Lambda (L), Mu (M), and Sigma (S) methods (LMS method) were employed to develop smoothed percentile curves for 6MWD and PHR. Multivariate linear regression was utilized to formulate a prediction equation for 6MWD. Smoothed percentiles (3rd, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 97th) for 6MWD and PHR were presented with age. All variables showed a strong positive correlation (p<0.001) with a six-minute walking distance (r ranged from 0.227 to 0.558 for girls and from 0.309 to 0.610 for boys), except resting heart rate, which showed a strong negative correlation (girls: r=-0.136; boys: r=-0.201; p<0.001). Additionally, PHR showed a weak correlation (p>0.05). The prediction equations, based on age as the primary variable, were established for both genders. For boys: 6MWD=66.181+38.142×Age (years) (R2=0.372; Standard Error of Estimate (SEE)=122.13), and for girls: 6MWD=105.535+28.390×Age (years) (R2=0.312; SEE=103.66). The study provides normative values and predictive equations for 6MWD and PHR in Tunisian children and adolescents. These findings offer essential tools for identifying, monitoring, and interpreting cardiovascular functional deficits in clinical and research settings.

Overview of Radar Alignment Methods and Analysis of Radar Misalignment’s Impact on Active Safety and Autonomous Systems

The rapid development of active safety systems in the automotive industry and research in autonomous driving requires reliable, high-precision sensors that provide rich information about the surrounding environment and the behaviour of other road users. In practice, there is always some non-zero mounting misalignment, i.e., angular inaccuracy in a sensor’s mounting on a vehicle. It is essential to accurately estimate and compensate for this misalignment further programmatically (in software). In the case of radars, imprecise mounting may result in incorrect/inaccurate target information, problems with the tracking algorithm, or a decrease in the power reflected from the target. Sensor misalignment should be mitigated in two ways: through the correction of an inaccurate alignment angle via the estimated value of the misalignment angle or alerting other components of the system of potential sensor degradation if the misalignment is beyond the operational range. This work analyses misalignment’s influences on radar sensors and other system components. In the mathematically proven example of a vertically misaligned radar, pedestrian detectability dropped to one-third of the maximum range. In addition, mathematically derived heading estimation errors demonstrate the impact on data association in data fusion. The simulation results presented show that the angle of misalignment exponentially increases the risk of false track splitting. Additionally, the paper presents a comprehensive review of radar alignment techniques, mostly found in the patent literature, and implements a baseline algorithm, along with suggested key performance indicators (KPIs) to facilitate comparisons for other researchers.

Mittag-Leffler function based security control for fractional-order complex network system subject to deception attacks via Observer-based AETS and its applications

The goal of this paper is to investigate the security control for uncertain fractional-order delayed complex network systems under deception attacks using the Mittag-Leffler function and observer-based adaptive event-triggered scheme (AETS) with the fractional commensurate order in q ∈ (0, 1). The adaptive event-triggering scheme is used during the data transmission process from the sensors to the observer, where the triggering threshold can be dynamically modified to reduce resource waste. We make a novel model for the estimation error system that takes into account both the effects of the adaptive event-triggered scheme and the effects of deception attacks. A sufficient condition is obtained to guarantee the stochastic mean-square stability of the augmented error system using the Mittag-Leffler (M-L) functions and the Lyapunov functional method and by using the singular value decomposition (SVD) and linear matrix inequality (LMI) techniques, the co-design problem of desired observer and controller gains is found, and it is shown that the solution ensures the stability of a closed-loop uncertain fractional-order complex networked system. At the end of this study, two numerical examples and diesel engine system model are given to show that the above findings are correct.

VE-LIOM: A Versatile and Efficient LiDAR-Inertial Odometry and Mapping System

LiDAR has emerged as one of the most pivotal sensors in the field of navigation, owing to its expansive measurement range, high resolution, and adeptness in capturing intricate scene details. This significance is particularly pronounced in challenging navigation scenarios where GNSS signals encounter interference, such as within urban canyons and indoor environments. However, the copious volume of point cloud data poses a challenge, rendering traditional iterative closest point (ICP) methods inadequate in meeting real-time odometry requirements. Consequently, many algorithms have turned to feature extraction approaches. Nonetheless, with the advent of diverse scanning mode LiDARs, there arises a necessity to devise unique methods tailored to these sensors to facilitate algorithm migration. To address this challenge, we propose a weighted point-to-plane matching strategy that focuses on local details without relying on feature extraction. This improved approach mitigates the impact of imperfect plane fitting on localization accuracy. Moreover, we present a classification optimization method based on the normal vectors of planes to further refine algorithmic efficiency. Finally, we devise a tightly coupled LiDAR-inertial odometry system founded upon optimization schemes. Notably, we pioneer the derivation of an online gravity estimation method from the perspective of S2 manifold optimization, effectively minimizing the influence of gravity estimation errors introduced during the initialization phase on localization accuracy. The efficacy of the proposed method was validated through experimentation employing various LiDAR sensors. The outcomes of indoor and outdoor experiments substantiate its capability to furnish real-time and precise localization and mapping results.

Machine learning allows robust classification of visceral fat in women with obesity using common laboratory metrics

The excessive accumulation and malfunctioning of visceral adipose tissue (VAT) is a major determinant of increased risk of obesity-related comorbidities. Thus, risk stratification of people living with obesity according to their amount of VAT is of clinical interest. Currently, the most common VAT measurement methods include mathematical formulae based on anthropometric dimensions, often biased by human measurement errors, bio-impedance, and image techniques such as X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) analysis, which requires specialized equipment. However, previous studies showed the possibility of classifying people living with obesity according to their VAT through blood chemical concentrations by applying machine learning techniques. In addition, most of the efforts were spent on men living with obesity while little was done for women. Therefore, this study aims to compare the performance of the multilinear regression model (MLR) in estimating VAT and six different supervised machine learning classifiers, including logistic regression (LR), support vector machine and decision tree-based models, to categorize 149 women living with obesity. For clustering, the study population was categorized into classes 0, 1, and 2 according to their VAT and the accuracy of each MLR and classification model was evaluated using DXA-data (DXAdata), blood chemical concentrations (BLDdata), and both DXAdata and BLDdata together (ALLdata). Estimation error and R2\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\hbox {R}^{2}$$\\end{document} were computed for MLR, while receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and precision-recall curves (PR) area under the curve (AUC) were used to assess the performance of every classification model. MLR models showed a poor ability to estimate VAT with mean absolute error ≥401.40\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\ge 401.40$$\\end{document} and R2≤0.62\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\hbox {R}^{2} \\le 0.62$$\\end{document} in all the datasets. The highest accuracy was found for LR with values of 0.57, 0.63, and 0.53 for ALLdata, DXAdata, and BLDdata, respectively. The ROC AUC showed a poor ability of both ALLdata and DXAdata to distinguish class 1 from classes 0 and 2 (AUC = 0.31, 0.71, and 0.85, respectively) as also confirmed by PR (AUC = 0.24, 0.57, and 0.73, respectively). However, improved performances were obtained when applying LR model to BLDdata (ROC AUC ≥\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\ge $$\\end{document} 0.61 and PR AUC ≥\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\ge $$\\end{document} 0.42), especially for class 1. These results seem to suggest that, while a direct and reliable estimation of VAT was not possible in our cohort, blood sample-derived information can robustly classify women living with obesity by machine learning-based classifiers, a fact that could benefit the clinical practice, especially in those health centres where medical imaging devices are not available. Nonetheless, these promising findings should be further validated over a larger population.

Fixed-Wing UAV Pose Estimation Using a Self-Organizing Map and Deep Learning

In many Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) operations, accurately estimating the UAV’s position and orientation over time is crucial for controlling its trajectory. This is especially important when considering the landing maneuver, where a ground-based camera system can estimate the UAV’s 3D position and orientation. A Red, Green, and Blue (RGB) ground-based monocular approach can be used for this purpose, allowing for more complex algorithms and higher processing power. The proposed method uses a hybrid Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, incorporating a Kohonen Neural Network (KNN) or Self-Organizing Map (SOM) to identify feature points representing a cluster obtained from a binary image containing the UAV. A Deep Neural Network (DNN) architecture is then used to estimate the actual UAV pose based on a single frame, including translation and orientation. Utilizing the UAV Computer-Aided Design (CAD) model, the network structure can be easily trained using a synthetic dataset, and then fine-tuning can be done to perform transfer learning to deal with real data. The experimental results demonstrate that the system achieves high accuracy, characterized by low errors in UAV pose estimation. This implementation paves the way for automating operational tasks like autonomous landing, which is especially hazardous and prone to failure.

An Aging-Optimized State-of-Charge-Controlled Multi-Stage Constant Current (MCC) Fast Charging Algorithm for Commercial Li-Ion Battery Based on Three-Electrode Measurements

This paper proposes a method that leads to a highly accurate state-of-charge dependent multi-stage constant current (MCC) charging algorithm for electric bicycle batteries to reduce the charging time without accelerating aging by avoiding Li-plating. First, the relation between the current rate, state-of-charge, and Li-plating is experimentally analyzed with the help of three-electrode measurements. Therefore, a SOC-dependent charging algorithm is proposed. Secondly, a SOC estimation algorithm based on an Extended Kalman Filter is developed in MATLAB/Simulink to conduct high accuracy SOC estimations and control precisely the charging algorithm. The results of the experiments showed that the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of SOC estimation is 1.08%, and the charging time from 0% to 80% SOC is reduced by 30%.

Carbohydrate Estimation Accuracy of Two Commercially Available Smartphone Applications vs Estimation by Individuals With Type 1 Diabetes: A Comparative Study.

Despite remarkable progress in diabetes technology, most systems still require estimating meal carbohydrate (CHO) content for meal-time insulin delivery. Emerging smartphone applications may obviate this need, but performance data in relation to patient estimates remain scarce. The objective is to assess the accuracy of two commercial CHO estimation applications, SNAQ and Calorie Mama, and compare their performance with the estimation accuracy of people with type 1 diabetes (T1D). Carbohydrate estimates of 53 individuals with T1D (aged ≥16 years) were compared with those of SNAQ (food recognition + quantification) and Calorie Mama (food recognition + adjustable standard portion size). Twenty-six cooked meals were prepared at the hospital kitchen. Each participant estimated the CHO content of two meals in three different sizes without assistance. Participants then used SNAQ for CHO quantification in one meal and Calorie Mama for the other (all three sizes). Accuracy was the estimate's deviation from ground-truth CHO content (weight multiplied by nutritional facts from recipe database). Furthermore, the applications were rated using the Mars-G questionnaire. Participants' mean ± standard deviation (SD) absolute error was 21 ± 21.5 g (71 ± 72.7%). Calorie Mama had a mean absolute error of 24 ± 36.5 g (81.2 ± 123.4%). With a mean absolute error of 13.1 ± 11.3 g (44.3 ± 38.2%), SNAQ outperformed the estimation accuracy of patients and Calorie Mama (both P > .05). Error consistency (quantified by the within-participant SD) did not significantly differ between the methods. SNAQ may provide effective CHO estimation support for people with T1D, particularly those with large or inconsistent CHO estimation errors. Its impact on glucose control remains to be evaluated.

Supplemental Material for Minimizing Measurement Error in Treatment Outcome Estimates: A Meta-Analysis Comparing Estimates Between the Gambling Timeline Followback and Other Self-Report Assessments of Gambling Behavior

Supplemental Material for Minimizing Measurement Error in Treatment Outcome Estimates: A Meta-Analysis Comparing Estimates Between the Gambling Timeline Followback and Other Self-Report Assessments of Gambling Behavior

Minimizing measurement error in treatment outcome estimates: A meta-analysis comparing estimates between the gambling timeline followback and other self-report assessments of gambling behavior.

The aim of the current meta-analysis was to examine potential differences in posttreatment effect size estimates for gambling frequency (i.e., the number of days gambled) and gambling expenditure (i.e., the amount of money gambled) when using the gambling timeline followback (G-TLFB) versus other self-report assessments. Using an open-access meta-analysis database of studies on cognitive behavioral treatment for gambling disorder, 22 studies representing 2,824 participants were identified for inclusion. Hedges's g effect sizes representing posttreatment differences on gambling frequency and expenditure between cognitive behavioral treatment versus inactive and minimal treatment controls were calculated, and mixed-effect subgroup analyses examined the effect sizes for each outcome between studies using the G-TLFB versus other self-report assessments. Mixed-effect subgroup analyses indicated that the effect size for gambling frequency was significantly lower for studies using the G-TLFB (g = -0.15) than studies using other self-report assessments (g = -0.71). When examining whether the use of the G-TLFB was associated with the posttreatment effect size for gambling frequency in a random-effect metaregression model that controlled for study grant funding status, the use of the G-TLFB was not significantly associated with effect size. The effect size for gambling expenditure was not significantly different between studies using the G-TLFB (g = -0.22) versus studies using other self-report assessments (g = -0.38). The G-TLFB yields more conservative and precise effect size estimates of posttreatment gambling frequency, but not gambling expenditure, than other self-report assessments. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Bayesian estimation of the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance: a mathematical modelling study.

Estimates of the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) underpin effective antimicrobial stewardship, infection prevention and control, and optimal deployment of antimicrobial agents. Typically, the prevalence of AMR is determined from real-world antimicrobial susceptibility data that are time delimited, sparse, and often biased, potentially resulting in harmful and wasteful decision-making. Frequentist methods are resource intensive because they rely on large datasets. To determine whether a Bayesian approach could present a more reliable and more resource-efficient way to estimate population prevalence of AMR than traditional frequentist methods. Retrospectively collected, open-source, real-world pseudonymized healthcare data were used to develop a Bayesian approach for estimating the prevalence of AMR by combination with prior AMR information from a contextualized review of literature. Iterative random sampling and cross-validation were used to assess the predictive accuracy and potential resource efficiency of the Bayesian approach compared with a standard frequentist approach. Bayesian estimation of AMR prevalence made fewer extreme estimation errors than a frequentist estimation approach [n = 74 (6.4%) versus n = 136 (11.8%)] and required fewer observed antimicrobial susceptibility results per pathogen on average [mean = 28.8 (SD = 22.1) versus mean = 34.4 (SD = 30.1)] to avoid any extreme estimation errors in 50 iterations of the cross-validation. The Bayesian approach was maximally effective and efficient for drug-pathogen combinations where the actual prevalence of resistance was not close to 0% or 100%. Bayesian estimation of the prevalence of AMR could provide a simple, resource-efficient approach to better inform population infection management where uncertainty about AMR prevalence is high.